Gold - close 2/3 of long positions

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Good afternoon traders! A slight revision of the trading idea on June 16 :

The initial idea was to work out the pin bar in order to update the monthly stops of sellers:

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However, at the European session yesterday, gold falsely updated the local market, breaking out from the levels reached in the last three trading days:

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Such a scenario is classified as "uncertainty" in the Price Action strategy. When it appears, it is necessary to close most of the position in the trend. Thus, close 2/3 of long positions and leave 1/3 at the level of 1745.

Good luck in trading and make sure to control the risks!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on June 19th

For the euro/dollar pair, we continue to move downwards after passing through the price range of the noise range 1.1201 - 1.1182. The level of 1.1261 is the key support. For the pound/dollar pair, the continuation of the downward movement is expected after the passage of the noise range 1.2387 - 1.2345. The level of 1.2534 is the key support. For the dollar/franc pair, the level of 0.9561 is the key resistance for the top and the level of 0.9462 is the key support. For the dollar/yen pair, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure. The level of 106.64 is the key resistance for the bottom and the level of 107.34 is the key support. For the euro/yen pair, we continue to monitor the local structure from June 16. The level of 120.22 is the key support. For the pound/yen pair, we will continue to move downward after the breakdown of the level of 132.43. The level of 133.70 is the key support.

Forecast for June 19:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1352, 1.1308, 1.1290, 1.1261, 1.1201, 1.1182, 1.1136 and 1.1103. Here, we continue to monitor the local descending structure of June 16th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing through the price range of noise 1.1201 - 1.1182. In this case, the target is 1.1136. For the potential value for the bottom, we considered it to be the level of 1.1103. We expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1261 - 1.1290. The range of 1.1290 - 1.1308 is a key support for the downward structure from June 16 and the price passing this range will lead to the formation of an upward structure. In this case, the target is 1.1352.

The main trend is the local descending structure of June 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1262 Take profit: 1.1290

Buy: 1.1310 Take profit: 1.1350

Sell: 1.1180 Take profit: 1.1138

Sell: 1.1134 Take profit: 1.1105

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2614, 1.2534, 1.2479, 1.2387, 1.2345, 1.2281 and 1.2184. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 10th. Further downward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.2387 - 1.2345. In this case, the target is 1.2281. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2184. We expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2479 - 1.2534. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. In this case, the potential target is 1.2614.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2480 Take profit: 1.2530

Buy: 1.2536 Take profit: 1.2612

Sell: 1.2345 Take profit: 1.2283

Sell: 1.2280 Take profit: 1.2186

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9687, 0.9618, 0.9561, 0.9488, 0.9462, 0.9416 and 0.9373. Here, the price forms expressed initial conditions for the top of June 11th. Further upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9561. In this case, the target is 0.9618. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.9618 will lead to a pronounced movement to the potential target - 0.9687. We expect a pullback from this level.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.9488 - 0.9462. The breakdown of the last level will lead to deeper movement. Here, the target is 0.9416. This is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 11

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9561 Take profit: 0.9615

Buy : 0.9620 Take profit: 0.9685

Sell: 0.9488 Take profit: 0.9464

Sell: 0.9460 Take profit: 0.9418

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 108.39, 108.15, 107.67, 107.34, 106.64, 106.07, 105.78 and 105.08. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of June 5th. Further downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.64. In this case, the target is 106.07. A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 106.07 - 105.78. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 105.08. We expect an upward pullback upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range 107.34 - 107.67. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 108.15. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed before the noise range of 108.15 - 108.39.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 5, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.35 Take profit: 107.66

Buy : 107.69 Take profit: 108.15

Sell: 106.64 Take profit: 106.07

Sell: 105.76 Take profit: 105.10

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3967, 1.3889, 1.3779, 1.3737, 1.3683, 1.3560, 1.3510 and 1.3452. Here, we are following the ascending structure of June 10th. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3683. In this case, the target is 1.3737. Price consolidation is near this level. The price passing the noise range of 1.3737 - 1.3779 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3889. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3967. We expect a downward pullback upon reaching this level.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range of 1.3560 - 1.3510. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the development of a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 1.3452. This is a key support level for the top and its breakdown will allow you to count on movement to the level of 1.3371.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3683 Take profit: 1.3737

Buy : 1.3780 Take profit: 1.3888

Sell: 1.3508 Take profit: 1.3452

Sell: 1.3450 Take profit: 1.3371

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7052, 0.6990, 0.6941, 0.6849, 0.6789, 0.6741, 0.6705. 0.6613 and 0.6549. Here, the price is in correction from the downward structure on June 10th. The continuation of the development of the downward trend is possible after the breakdown of the level of 0.6849. Here, the first goal is 0.6789. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to rely on the movement to 0.6741. The price passing the noise range 0.6741 - 0.6705 will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.6613. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.6549. We expect a pullback upward upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6941 - 0.6990. The breakdown of the level of 0.6990 will lead to the cancellation of the downward trend. In this case, the first target is 0.7052.

The main trend is the descending structure of June 10, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6941 Take profit: 0.6988

Buy: 0.6992 Take profit: 0.7050

Sell : 0.6849 Take profit : 0.6790

Sell: 0.6787 Take profit: 0.6741

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 120.69, 120.22, 119.94, 119.37, 118.96 and 118.39. Here, we follow the development of the local downward cycle of June 16. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 119.37. In this case, the target is 118.96. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 118.39. We expect a pullback upward upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 119.94 - 120.22. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the goal is 120.69. This level is the key support for the downward structure from June 16.

The main trend is the local descending structure of June 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.94 Take profit: 120.20

Buy: 120.24 Take profit: 120.69

Sell: 119.37 Take profit: 118.98

Sell: 118.94 Take profit: 118.40

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 134.56, 133.70, 133.23, 132.43, 131.71, 131.30 and 130.44. Here we continue to monitor the local descending structure of June 16th. Further downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 132.43. In this case, the target is 131.71. Price consolidation is in the range of 131.71 - 131.30. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 130.44. We expect a pullback upward upon reaching which.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 133.23 - 133.70. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 134.56. This level is a key support for the downward structure from June 16.

The main trend is the local descending structure of June 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.23 Take profit: 133.70

Buy: 133.75 Take profit: 134.56

Sell: 132.40 Take profit: 131.73

Sell: 131.30 Take profit: 130.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD is approaching 1st resistance, possible reversal!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3621

Reason for Entry: horizontal swing high, 61% fib retracement

Take Profit :1.3490

Reason for Take Profit: 61% fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support

Stop Loss:1.3734

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD - the quotes have reached the value 1.12 so take profit!

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Good afternoon traders! Congratulations to those who followed our trading idea on June 17 , which was to open short positions on the EUR / USD pair.

Stop Hunting strategy was used to locate buyers' stops at the level of 1.12

Plan:

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A short initiative with a 50% pullback occurred in the chart:

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Result:

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Congratulations! The movement amounted to about 1,000 pips.

Good luck in trading and make sure to control the risks!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin: Antifragility of the first cryptocurrency

Greetings to all newbie crypto-traders and experienced crypto enthusiasts!

In this article, we will discuss the anti-fragility of assets, in particular the crypto industry, as this is currently the most relevant.

So, the term "anti-fragility" came to us from the famous professor, economist and trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who proved that profit can be made from chaos.

"Antifragility" is the ability to benefit from stressful situations. Antifragile systems are not just immune to cataclysms, in difficult conditions they "harden" and become better.

From year to year, bitcoin, as a separate cryptocurrency, goes through difficult trials caused by criticism, prohibition, internal and external problems, and now a pandemic, and the global economic crisis. There were a lot of problems at all stages of formation, but Bitcoin still stands still, and its cost amounts to thousands of dollars.

This is a living example of the "antifragile" asset of the future!

Who would have thought that Bitcoin would be traded on the CME commodity exchange five years ago, and institutional investors would keep it in their portfolios for millions of dollars, and this, by the way, is a fact of our future. Bitcoin was able to benefit from the stressful situation and apply it to the benefit of its adaptation in the public and in the market in general.

The adaptation and anti-fragility of the first cryptocurrency led to the fact that Bitcoin turned out to be the most stable asset during the global financial crisis in March 2020. Based on a study by JPMorgan, the world's largest investment bank, the first cryptocurrency, to the surprise of experts, received a strong correlation with stocks and other traditional assets, which could not have been imagined over the past years. At the same time, the recovery process of Bitcoin after the decline of markets in March turned out to be much faster in terms of liquidity and asset value than traditional trading instruments.

"Bitcoin's liquidity fell very much during the peak market drop, but recovered much faster than liquidity in traditional markets. The depth of the Bitcoin market is already above the average for the year, while the liquidity of more traditional asset classes has not yet recovered," a report from JPMorgan said.

Moreover, Bitcoin does not stop at this. Based on an analysis of the financial corporation Fidelity Investments, which manages $ 7.2 trillion of funds, 36% of the surveyed 774 large customers in the US and Europe added digital assets to the portfolio.

"The results confirm a growing trend of interest and the adoption of digital assets as a new investment asset class," said Tom Jessop, president of Fidelity Digital Assets.

That is, institutional investors are already at work, and with such turnovers that it is already difficult to say that we are dealing with a one-day hype, as you might have heard a couple of years ago.

In turn, the chief editor and family member of the founders of the Forbes business publication, Steve Forbes, changed his mind about crypto assets, saying that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be considered a protective tool against the unstable economic policies of states.

The first cryptocurrency is still far from a defensive asset, but with the achievements that have been achieved, then why not? This is the essence of antifragility, which will turn into success over time, and most importantly, recognition of the public.

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Current development and prospects

As early as 50 days, the Bitcoin quote is within the new range of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000, where the recovery from the March decline was 150%, which can be considered an amazing result in terms of speed. A stepped price course indicates that the market is demonstrating a kind of stabilization of interests, thereby controlling speculative excitement, which could theoretically give Bitcoin the basis for further strengthening.

Regarding the accumulation of stop orders [StopLoss], it is worth allocating the coordinates of $ 8,300 / $ 10,500, where if their price is touched, a significant acceleration in the direction of breakdown may occur. At this point, we are focusing attention, since working within the existing range is not so attractive, and most importantly, profitable, as the way out of it.

Based on the general background of market recovery, there is a prospect for further growth of Bitcoin, which means that if prices are consolidated higher than $ 10,500 in the daily period, the market can move to a new level in the region of $ 12,000 / $ 13,868, which will already lead to a maximum 2019 year.

I remind you that you shouldn't enter trading positions early, wait for the stop orders to trigger above the $ 10,500 mark to minimize the chance of a false signal.

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The general background of the cryptocurrency market

Analyzing the total market capitalization, we can see a significant upward spiral in trading volumes, where the total market is $ 267 billion.

If we consider the volume chart in general terms, then it is clear that the breakdown of the February ceiling of this year is $ 304 billion and its breakdown will lead to further growth in the direction of the maximum of 2019 of $ 362 billion.

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The crypto market emotion index (aka fear and euphoria) is 40 points, but it is worth considering that for the period of a new stage, the index had an average of 45 points, which, in principle, is not bad for an emotional background.

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), it can be seen that relative to the four-hour and daily periods, there is a variable sell signal due to working out the upper boundary of the flat formation of $ 8,500 / $ 10,000. The weekly period, in turn, still reflects the buy signal due to the fast recovery process.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF price movement, June 19, 2020

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On the 4 hour chart now, we can see that USD/CHF is now moving in a narrow range. Overall, this pair has already formed a Triangle Pattern. It means that the USD/CHF pair will soon decline especially if this pair breaks out and closes bellow the red rectangle/ It will break through 0.9480 and 0.9375. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not rise and close above 0.9553.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Price Movement: Analysis For June 19, 2020.

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The USD/CAD pair now is trying to raid the nearest Liquidity Pool at near 1.3865. From the technical view, this confirms that the pair has got the Hidden Divergence (Convergence) between the price with the Stochastic Oscillator (Magenta Line). The current price now is above the Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. As long as USD/CAD does not retrace and closes below 1.3504, the up movement is still valid, so the price will continue to go up.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 19, 2020

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GBP/JPY dropped much lower than we had expected and now, it is testing the 78.6% corrective target and the channel support line. At the same time, we saw the bullish divergence for the RSI. This points to an impulsive rally in the near future. However, we were disapointed the last time we were waiting for a turnaround. Therefore, we would like to see minor resistance at 133.63. It is even more important to see that resistance at 134.35 is broken before we are on the safe ground and wait for a new impulsive rally towards 139.74 on the way higher to 148.32.

Support at 131.63 must be able to protect the downside. Otherwise, we will have to review and re-count the rally from 129.30.

R3: 135.14

R2: 134.35

R1: 133.63

Pivot: 133.09

S1: 132.68

S2: 132.36

S3: 131.85

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 133.10 was hit by a loss and we will re-buy GBP here at 132.85 and place our stop at 131.55.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Market is clearly looking for any reason to grow (there is a possibility of continuing the limited decline in GBP/USD and

The result of the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday did not bring any special surprises, which, against the backdrop of investor's falling activity in the currency market, fits perfectly into the general outline of their behavior in the face of the probability of the risk of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic spreading. The regulator left interest rates unchanged and expectedly expanded the incentive program from 645 to 725 billion pounds. However, the pound could not support these measures, as Brexit's issue came to the forefront again and the uncertainty surrounding the consequences of the prospect of a "divorce" of Great Britain and the EU accompanying it.

The problems of the new COVID-19 outbreak in China and in a number of States in America still forced market players to slow down and take a wait-and-see attitude. The main reason for this is the continuing probability of a new blow to the global economy, which, as many believe, will lead to a new closure of economies with all the ensuing consequences. And while this is unlikely, such expectations exist and guide the markets.

Why is there such a picture and why is there not a strong decline in the value of risky assets in the markets, while the dollar is strengthening as a safe haven currency?

The main reason lies in the fact that it is hardly worth expecting even in the event of worsening situation with the pandemic of new strict quarantine measures, primarily in the United States and China. Their introduction will simply kill the economies of countries that decide on these measures, and this will definitely serve as a catalyst for social unrest with all the ensuing negative consequences.

D. Trump, as well as the head of the US Treasury S. Mnuchin previously made it clear that such drastic measures in America should not be expected. This position of Washington, together with the existing uncertainty of whether the pandemic problems in the United States and China will develop into something serious or not, does not allow the dollar to receive support. This picture is the reason for the consolidation of currency pairs where the US dollar is present.

How long will it all last? It can be said with great certainty that activity in world markets will increase markedly only if the situation with the spread of coronavirus infection in China and the USA is clarified. If we manage to stop this problem with limited protective measures, as well as the advent of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, then we will witness a new multi-day rally in the stock markets, commodity and commodity assets, and, of course, in the currency market, where the US currency will definitely resume the downward trend.

Today, investors will also focus on the speech of Fed Chairman Powell, and a number of representatives of the US regulator.

Forecast of the day:

The GBP/USD pair broke out of the range 1.2480-1.2800 following the results of the meeting of the Bank of England and the concentration of market participants on the topic of Brexit. We believe that a price decline and its consolidation below the level of 1.2400 will lead to a further decline to 1.2300.

The USD/CAD pair is in the range 1.3500-1.3685. The recovery in crude oil prices and some improvement in market sentiment will allow the pair to rise to the upper boundary of this range.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 19 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Bank of England corner pound buyers. COT

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's recent statement that the UK economy is recovering better than the central bank's forecasts did not have the desired effect, which left the British pound under pressure right after the regulator expanded its bond redemption program. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the next signal was formed to increase short positions in the afternoon, which many of you could hold even after working out the morning sell signal. A break and consolidation below the level of 1.2453, to which I paid attention, became an additional point for selling GBP/USD. At the moment, the situation has changed a bit after the Asian correction. You can see new support at 1.2406 on the hourly, which pound buyers need to protect. Forming a false breakout there along with the divergence that forms on the MACD indicator will be a good signal to buy the pound based on an upward correction, at least to the resistance of 1.2476. Consolidating at this level will lead to larger growth of GBP/USD to the area of a high of 1.2545, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on the pound remains in the morning, then it is best to return to purchases only after updating the low of 1.2344, or buy the pound immediately to rebound from the low of 1.2290, counting on a correction of 30-40 points by the end of the week. It is also worth recalling that there have been serious changes in the COT reports that could affect the British pound. A sharp decrease in short positions and an increase in long ones were recorded in the report for June 9, which indicates a completely possible change in the market direction in favor of strengthening the pound. There was a reduction in short non-profit positions from the level of 63,014 to the level of 52,941. By the way, this is the first reduction in short positions since April 14 of this year. At this time, long non-profit positions sharply rose from 26,970 to 28,893. As a result, the nonprofit net position reduced its negative value to -24,048, versus -36,044, which indicates a possible market reversal and build up of a new bullish momentum in the medium term. Updating current lows will be an additional incentive for purchases at attractive prices.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers quickly took advantage of the confusion in the market and continued their downward correction, which suggested itself at the end of last week. At the moment, their goal is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.2406, which will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to a test of a low of 1.2343. It will be possible to count on updating the 1.2290 area only under the condition of very weak retail sales reports in the UK, which is set to be released today in the morning. In the GBP/USD growth scenario, you can closely look at short positions after forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2476. In the absence of activity there on the part of sellers, I recommend to postpone short positions on the pound until the renewal of a larger local high of 1.2545 while expecting a 30-40 points rebound.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the formation of a downward correction in the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Downward movement can be stopped near the lower border of the indicator 1.2385. A break of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.2476 will lead to an increase in the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 19 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pressure on the euro may decline, bulls

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's indistinct attempt by the bears to continue the downward correction in the euro led to an update of the lows of the week and, in general, to maintain the trend to strengthen the US dollar. But there were problems in regards to the entry points. If you look at the 5-minute chart in the afternoon and remember the support level of 1.1215, which I paid attention to, you can see how the bears are trying to gain a foothold below this area, but they manage to do this only on the second attempt, which leads to the next wave of euro decline. Many traders are in no hurry to sell further, since the EU summit will take place today, at which it will be possible for them to discuss a package of assistance worth 750 billion euros, which many have already forgotten about. However, serious decisions on this issue are unlikely to be taken, which will lead to a slight upward correction in the pair by the end of the week. Bulls need to gain a foothold above resistance 1.1230, which will be a signal to buy and open a direct road to the resistance area of 1.1290, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro falls further, it is best to return to long positions after updating the next support of 1.1164 immediately for a rebound, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. It is worth remembering that the market is on the side of euro buyers. An increase in ling positions was recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 9, as well as the reduction of short ones, which indicates a bullish momentum for the pair. The report shows a reduction in short non-profit positions from 93,172 to 98,020, while long non-profit positions sharply rose from 174,412 to 184,669. As a result, the positive non-profit net position rose again to 95,639, against 81,240, which indicates an increase in interest in purchases of risky assets.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Bears, albeit with great difficulty, achieve their goal day after day and update weekly lows, keeping the pair in a downward channel. Today, the main task will be to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1230, which will be a signal to open short positions, which will lead to updating the next lows in the area of 1.1164. Bears will further aim for the area 1.1106, where I recommend taking profits, but this will only happen if there are real prospects for the approval of the assistance plan worth 750 billion euros at the EU summit. If the bulls turn out to be stronger and take the resistance of 1.1230 in the first half of the day, and most likely it will be so, it is best to postpone short positions in the pair until the test of a high of 1.1290 is calculated based on a rebound of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

The euro decline may be limited by the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.1180. A break of the upper border in the area of 1.1240 will strengthen the demand for the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 19, 2020

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EUR/JPY moved to a low of 119.59 or just below the 61.8% corrective target. At 119.59, EUR/JPY met the support line of the pitchfork and this should be enough to turn the pair higher again. We were disipointed the last time we looked for a turn higher. So we would like to see minor resistance at 120.03. It is even more important to see that resistance at 120.54 is broken before we raise our expectations for a new impulsive rally.

In other words, we continue to believe that the potentiel downside movement from here would be very limited.

R3: 120.87

R2: 120.54

S1: 120.03

Pivot: 119.92

S1: 119.70

S2: 119.59

S3: 119.42

Trading recommendation:

We are long on EUR from 119.95 with our stop at 118.95

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EUR/CAD facing bullish pressure, potential for further upside

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.52195

Reason for Entry: horizontal swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.53273

Reason for Take Profit: 100% fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.51718

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal swing low support, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

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NZDUSD reacted below descending trendline resistance and further push down expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.64186

Reason for Entry: Graphical overlap

Take Profit: 0.63813

Reason for Take Profit: 161.8% Fibonacci extension, graphical swing low

Stop Loss: 0.64389

Reason for Stop Loss: 50% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 19, 2020

EUR/USD

The dollar continues the offensive. The euro fell by 37 points yesterday, having reached the bears' target level of 1.1195. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator almost touches the border of the downward trend territory. Marlin's transition to the zone of negative values will allow the price to move even deeper, to the target of 1.1120, from which a correction of about fifty points could follow.

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The Marlin oscillator forms a convergence on the four-hour chart, but just like last time, yesterday, the support of the convergence line could be broken and, as a result, it will not form at all. If the price consolidates below 1.1195, we expect a decline to the target of 1.1120.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 19, 2020

GBP/USD

The Bank of England increased its asset repurchase program to its balance sheet by £ 100 billion on Thursday, bringing the total program to £745 billion. As a result, the pound closed the day by going down 132 points. The price fulfilled the target at the Fibonacci level of 138.2%. Marlin has infiltrated the declining trend zone, while the price is below the balance indicator line. The purpose of the decline is formed by the range of the Fibonacci level of 161.8% (1.2237) and the MACD line (1.2185).

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The price is consolidating below the Fibonacci level of 138.2% on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of negative values. Convergence can form on the oscillator, but it could also be suppressed by a stronger trend on the daily scale. Consolidating the price under yesterday's low (1.2401) will be a signal for the pound to move to the specified target of 1.2185-1.2237.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 19, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar remained aloof from European events and fell by only 30 points yesterday. Perhaps the aussie is waiting for commodities or new data on China to decline in order to act more confidently. Iron ore (-0.63%) and a number of non-ferrous metals (nickel -0.32%, lead -0.40%) are among the key products for Australia that are still declining.

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The Marlin oscillator has penetrated into the decreasing trend zone on the daily chart. The Australian dollar is aiming for 0.6680, the peak of May 27 and March 9.

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The price has been recorded under the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart - the prospect of a downward movement. The Marlin oscillator is on the zero line, waiting for the direction in which the price will swing – in the current situation, Marlin is in a guided position. We are waiting for the situation to develop according to the main downward scenario.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 19, 2020

USD/JPY

The movement of the USD/JPY pair turned out to be weak on Thursday - it ended the day with a loss of five points. But the price has been recorded under the MACD indicator line, which shows us the direction of the trend and the future movement of the asset, depending on where its quote is located - above or below this line. The Marlin oscillator is going down in the negative area. The purpose of the decline of 105.90 is the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe. Furthermore, movement to the second target 105.40 is possible.

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The price develops directly on the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart, which indicates the neutrality of the last day. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves along the border of two trends - rising and falling. Taking into account the pressure of the higher timeframe, we are waiting for the neutral situation to shift downward and for the price to reach the designated goal.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 19. COT report. Jerome Powell speech. Bears need to overcome

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound/dollar pair significantly lost more than the euro/dollar pair yesterday, thanks to the decision of the Bank of England to expand the program of repurchase of securities by 100 billion euros. As a result, the British currency fell into the support area of 1.2400-1.2420 by the end of the day. Thus, further downward movement will now depend on overcoming this area. In addition, traders managed to overcome the upward trend line, which now makes life easier for bears. GBP/USD also continues to remain inside the downward channel, so the prospects for declining further are good. If quotes rebound from the support area of 1.2400-1.2420, then the bulls will be able to seize the initiative and try to raise the pair, at least, to the critical Kijun-sen line. And further movement will depend entirely on whether the pair remains inside the channel.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are again directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, so the pair continues to show its willingness to continue moving down.

COT Report

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The latest COT report for the British pound, published on Friday, showed a strong drop in the number of open purchase contracts among professional traders. Their number decreased by almost 7,000, but there were only 705 new open buy-positions. Thus, traders didn't buy the pound sterling very much, and nevertheless, the British currency rose in price in the reporting week. If you look at the behavior of large traders in all categories, then they closed both purchase contracts and sale contracts. A total of 25,000 contracts were closed. Thus, in general, the pound was not in demand, but at the same time it was growing against the dollar. The pair is falling quite strongly this week, so today's COT report is likely to show a decrease in net positions for the British pound.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair is starting to be negative. There are still no fundamentally new statements or news on the main topic for the pound sterling - Brexit. But traders reacted to the rapid sales of the British currency after it became known that the Bank of England had expanded its asset repurchase program by £100 billion. Also, market participants are seriously worried that at the next meetings may resort to negative rates, since, according to the general opinion, the British economy will not cope with the consequences of the coronavirus crisis, Brexit and the absence of a trade deal with the European Union. Additional stimulation will be required. And any stimulation of the economy and additional easing of monetary policy is a bearish factor and is likely to lead to a new fall of the British pound. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to hold his next speech on Friday, June 19. However, it is unlikely that Powell will add anything else to what was already mentioned this week in Congress. Therefore, the pound/dollar might slightly recover today after what happened on Thursday.

There are two main scenarios as of June 19:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair passed completely into the hands of sellers, since the upward trend line was overcome. Therefore, short positions are currently relevant with a view to the support level of 1.2268. However, we consider it appropriate to first wait until the support area of 1.2400-1.2420 is overcome. Potential Take Profit in this case will be 120 points.

2) Buyers were not able to cope with the onslaught of bears and had let go of the pair. Thus, it is advised to consider purchase orders now but not before you consolidate quotes above the downward channel. In this case, the bulls will be able to count on further growth with the goals of the Senkou Span B line and the resistance level of 1.2740. However, such a development is not expected in the coming days. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 50 to 150 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 19. COT report. Buyers expect the EU summit to end with "northerners"

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement clearly inside the descending channel on the hourly timeframe, on June 18, showing the moderate intentions of the bears. As a result, the pair almost reached the support level of 1.1171 by the end of the trading day, which we gave as the main target level yesterday. Since overcoming this level has not yet happened, and an upward trend line lies nearby, which continues to provide support to traders who aim for an increase, so far future prospects for the US currency are vague. If traders manage to overcome the trend line, then the bears can get a new reason to be optimistic and continue to sell the pair (buy the dollar) further. Given the fact that we have a clear downward channel, then buyers will wait for it to be overcome and only after that will they be able to enter the market.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, clearly signaling a downward trend in the shortest term. There are currently no signs of a possible turn up.

COT Report

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The European currency continued to go up for most of the past week. Thus, we made assumptions that professional market players have invested in the euro, respectively, according to the latest COT report, the number of buy positions should have significantly increased. Or the number of contracts for selling the euro will sharply decrease. As a result, the report showed the implementation of the first option. The number of open buy positions increased by 12,662, while sales contracts were also reduced by professional traders (-2,579). Thus, a double effect was obtained. As for the general changes among all categories of traders in the COT report, the number of sell deals have grown over the past week. However, as we all perfectly understand, speculators drive the market, and accordingly, we find their actions interesting. The trend is already different this week. Speculators stopped opening new contracts for the purchase and, possibly, even reduced their number. We expect the new COT report to show a decrease in the net position in the European currency.

The overall fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains neutral, from our point of view. Traders had nothing to turn their attention to over the past day. Absolutely. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's second speech in the US Congress completely echoed the first. There were no important macroeconomic publications. No important reports are planned either on the last trading day of the week. Thus, volatility may decrease today, and no currency should have advantages. At the same time, one should not forget that traders often trade illogically in recent coronavirus months. Thus, it does not mean that trading will be sluggish today, and that the movement will be counter-trend. Moreover, there is always US President Donald Trump who can flood news feeds with his sayings. His statements have little effect on the movement of the currency pair, however, it is difficult to pass them by. In addition, a video summit of the EU countries will be held today, which will discuss the issue of financing and the size of the Recovery Fund. The most important thing that we need to learn from its results is whether it will be possible to convince the "northern" countries to voluntarily and almost free of charge help the "southerners". If so, then the plan to help the European economy is likely to be approved, and the euro can get support in the short term.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 19:

1) The bulls remain in the shade so far, so the EUR/USD pair could continue the downward movement. Today we recommend that you stay in sales with a support level of 1.1171. If the bears manage to overcome the upward trend line, then short positions can be maintained with the support levels of 1.1088 and 1.0962 as targets. Potential Take Profit after overcoming the trend line is from 75 to 200 points.

2) We advise you to consider the option of resuming the EUR/USD pair's growth only when the bulls manage to gain a foothold above the downward channel. In this case, we will recommend buying the euro while aiming for the resistance area of 1.1327-1.1341 and resistance levels 1.1380 and 1.1506. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 30 to 200 points.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 19. Trump is at the epicenter of a new political scandal in the United States.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -228.0870

The British pound fell yesterday after the results of the Bank of England meeting were summed up. In principle, this is what we talked about a day earlier when we warned that the expansion of the quantitative stimulus program is a "dovish" measure that means easing monetary policy. And such a step is almost always accompanied by a fall in the national currency. However, we were not sure that the British currency would continue to fall due to this measure of the British regulator. After all, in recent months, market participants often ignore macroeconomic statistics. However, this time, traders could not pass by such an important event.

If we look at the Central Bank's meeting in more detail, the regulator is still shaping monetary policy by achieving the 2% inflation target. All members of the monetary committee voted to keep the base rate at the same level of 0.1%. The Bank of England says that after a 20% drop in GDP in April, this indicator has begun to recover. The outlook for the British and global economy is uncertain. Everything will depend on the results of the fight against the "coronavirus" epidemic. The Bank of England also said that it is ready to ease monetary policy again if the situation requires it. From our point of view, absolutely "dovish" results.

Meanwhile, a new political scandal related to Donald Trump is breaking out in America. Former national security adviser John Bolton, who was fired by Trump in September 2019, has written a book. This book contains a lot of information compromising the current president, and the presidential administration has already banned the distribution of this book in the public domain. However, several copies of the book have already fallen into the hands of journalists, so the most interesting parts of the book have already been published in relevant articles. One of Bolton's most high-profile statements is that the current US President asked Chinese leader Xi Jinping to help him win the 2020 election in exchange for signing new trade agreements. Also, Bolton reports that the Chinese leader in a personal meeting with Trump told him about concentration camps for Uighur Muslims, to which Trump replied that he fully approves of it. Also, the former adviser to the president tells in his book about a lot of meetings and conversations between Trump and the leaders of Japan, North Korea, and the UK, in which the US president showed himself to be completely ignorant, each decision of which was aimed at increasing his popularity and reflected a desire to remain in power for a second term. Bolton also claims that during the impeachment procedure, the Democrats incorrectly built an accusatory line. According to Bolton, Trump should have left office not because of pressure on Ukraine, but because of a series of wrong foreign policy decisions. Trump himself has also already spoken out about the yet-to-be-released book, accusing Bolton of divulging classified information.

Well, the political crisis in the US continues to gain momentum. However, at this time, it does not have any impact on the US dollar, however, it is extremely important for both America and the dollar. We have repeatedly said that a lot will depend on who becomes the next US President. Returning to the matters of the moment and the dynamics of the pound/dollar pair, we can say the following. There are no publications scheduled for the last trading day of the week in the UK and the US. However, there is no doubt that soon, traders will receive new information on the subject of John Bolton's book, Trump's reaction to it, as well as China's reaction to the US law supporting Uighurs. However, the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue its decline anyway, as it has previously grown quite strongly. At the same time, we continue to recommend paying special attention to technical indicators. For example, a reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will signal a round of upward correction, which can then develop into a full-fledged upward trend. The main thing is not to trade against the trend.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 148 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high". On Friday, June 19, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2232 and 1.2528. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a possible new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2390

S2 – 1.2329

S3 – 1.2268

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2451

R2 – 1.2512

R3 – 1.2573

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to continue trading the pound/dollar pair for a decrease with the goals of 1.2329 and 1.2268. It is recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair not before fixing traders above the moving average, with the first goals of 1.2634 and 1.2695.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 19. The fight at the EU summit promises to be tough. 750 billion euros are at stake. The

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -173.3454

The fourth trading day of the week again passed in fairly quiet trading, although no important macroeconomic reports and events were planned for this day. Moreover, many topics have recently been frankly "extinguished", so market participants, without fundamental support, do not know how to trade them in the medium term. One of the most interesting and important topics for the European Union now remains the issue of providing a package of assistance to the countries and economic sectors most affected by the "coronavirus crisis". We will remind that earlier there were several offers, starting from "coronabonds", ending with the current offer for 750 billion euros. In fact, all these proposals are either loans of the required amount on the financial markets with further repayment over several decades by all EU member states or raising funds from the contributions of each EU country with further redistribution of funds. However, one way or another, some countries will have to pay for the recovery (as well as miscalculations, lack of savings and budget violations) of others. This is the main stumbling block. "Northern" countries, which are famous for their economic discipline and economy, are not going to give grants to "southern" countries, which are considered spenders. It is one thing when it comes to providing loans, even if they are free, however, it is another thing when you are offered to give away tens of billions of euros for nothing. This whole situation is very similar to an emergency high-rise building, where some residents can't pay for repairs, so everyone else who can must pay twice as much. Naturally, the wealthier and more economical ones are protesting and are not going to simply finance the "southerners", and even on a gratuitous basis. This is the main topic at tomorrow's EU summit, which will be held in a video format. For our part, we would like to say that, as for such an important event, the media and press are currently paying very little attention to it. In fact, there is no information about tomorrow's summit and possible solutions. There are no new comments from Angela Merkel, or Emmanuel Macron, or Ursula von der Leyen, or representatives of the "Northern" countries. Thus, we believe that tomorrow we will simply discuss the proposed plan for the formation of a recovery fund. No important decisions will be made, so the negotiation process will be delayed, like the negotiations between Brussels and London on Brexit. Accordingly, we would not expect any important information from the summit tomorrow.

Meanwhile, a new point of conflict between China and the United States has emerged (or rather "surfaced"). Donald Trump signed an executive order that would impose sanctions on China for violating the rights of Uighurs. It is expected that those people and organizations that are involved in the persecution of the Uighur people will fall under the sanctions. The sanctions involve freezing the assets of all those involved in the persecution, as well as a ban on entering the United States. Well, China, in turn, immediately replied that "this law is a gross interference in the internal affairs of the country". Actually, nothing new. Washington imposes sanctions, threatens, accuses, and China fights back with the phrase "gross interference in the internal affairs of the country" and shows a strong protest.

In addition, it is reported that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held a virtually secret meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister in Hawaii. No details were given, however, the meeting was allegedly initiated by China amid a significant deterioration in relations between the two countries, which have the largest economies in the world. However, according to other information, the meeting lasted more than 7 hours, and no progress was made in the negotiations. The parties just set out a list of demands and claims against each other and that's it... However, in addition to all the contentious issues between Beijing and Washington, some experts insist that America is now trying to warn China by all means available to it against an even more unacceptable act – interference in the 2020 presidential election. Naturally, most of all, Donald Trump himself does not want this, because, in his opinion, China favors Joe Biden, and Joe Biden has never hidden his sympathy for China. Thus, Trump fears that Beijing may support its main competitor, which will reduce the chances of winning the election by another ten percent.

Thus, in the opinion of many experts, relations between China and the United States may heat up even more in the next six months against the backdrop of exclusively presidential elections. However, they are already at a fairly "hot" point.

During the past day, only one significant report was published in the United States, and none in the European Union at all. Therefore, in principle, quite weak volatility during the day is quite understandable. The number of primary applications for unemployment benefits increased by 1.5 million, although forecasts predicted a maximum of +1.3 million, and the total number of secondary applications for benefits was 20.5 million, although forecasts predicted no more than 20. Thus, the situation with unemployment in the US remains quite difficult and once again I would like to ask the US Bureau of Statistics how, according to their version, unemployment managed to fall in May?

On the last trading day of the week in the United States and the European Union, no macroeconomic publications or events are planned at all. Thus, volatility on the last trading day of the week may be low, unless the markets are stirred up by some unexpected information.

From a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair continues to adjust against the upward trend that has been maintained in the past two weeks. In general, the bears continue to push the pair slowly down, so there are also quite high chances of forming a new downward trend. The technical picture on the lower time frames also implies a continuation of the downward movement, at least to the level of 1.1171. At the same time, it should be noted that the downward movement is certainly weak, which is clearly not enough for one of the channels of linear regression to begin to turn down.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 19 is 108 points. Thus, the value of the indicator is still characterized as "high", thanks to the last two weeks. We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1062 and 1.1278 today. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will signal a new round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.0986

S3 – 1.0864

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1353

R3 – 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Thus, at this time, sell orders with the goals of 1.1108 and 1.1062 remain relevant until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to return to buying the pair not before fixing the price above the moving target of 1.1347 and 1.1475.

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