Technical analysis of Gold for September 29, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold remains in a trading range between $1,00.00/05.00 and $1,230.00/40.00 for now. The metal is attempting to rally at the moment but a break above $1,240.00 would be imminent for bulls to remain in further control. On the flip side, a break below $1,206.00 would drag prices towards $1,180.00/85.00 at least. It is recommended to exit long positions taken last week and remain flat, awaiting a break on either side. Immediate support is at $1,206.00 (interim), followed by $1,180.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,230.00/40, followed by $1,275.00 and higher respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Exit long positions for now (remain conservative). Wait for a range break to enter again.


Good luck!


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EUR/NZD analysis for September 29, 2014

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Overview:


Our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6441 in an ultra high volume (buying climax). Our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.6300 is on the test so be very careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage. We can observe buying climax according to the 4H time frame, so we may see potential reaction from sellers (bearish correction) before any larger bullish continuation. Anyway, to confirm futher bullish movement, the price needs to break the level of 1.6300 in a high volume and with healthy price action.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6148


R2: 1.6176


R3: 1.6222


Support levels:


S1: 1.6056


S2: 1.6028


S3: 1.57982


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see a bearish corrective phase


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Gold : analysis for September 29, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,212.10. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe strong rejection again from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,229.00, which caused price to start with downward movement. According to previous price action, we got support level at the price of 1,208.00 (swing low like support). If the price breaks the level of 1,208.00 in a high volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1,194.00. According to the daily chart, we can observe indecision bar in a volume below average, so we need to wait for larger supply in an high volume to confirm futher bearish movement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,218.84


R2: 1,219.50


R3: 1,220.57


Support levels


S1: 1,216.70


S2: 1,216.04


S3: 1,214.94


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since we got strong rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%


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#USDX Technical analysis for September 29, 2014

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend. The up trend is very strong and is now looking parabolic. This means that bulls should be on high alert as a trend reversal will be very strong and swift. On the other hand, I do not prefer going against this trend.


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Red line = resistance


The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and still inside the upward sloping channels. Resistance is at 85.80. A short-term pull back is justified towards 85.50. This is the short-term support level. Breaking below that level could push the index towards 85.


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The parabolic rise in the Dollar index is strong. It is prefered to stay neutral than trade against this strong up trend. However, bulls should also take their precautions as a pull back could bring the index as low as 84.40 in a very fast manner. Such parabolic rises also bring strong reversals, so it is prefered to raise stops in order to lock in profits. A normal correction would bring the index towards the 83.50 level. In conclusion, we remain fully bullish with our stops raised in order to protect profits. Betting against this strong trend is not advisable.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 29 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6514


R2: 1.6475


R1: 1.6446


Current spot: 1.6345


S1: 1.6308


S2: 1.6300


S3: 1.6266


Technical summary:


We have seen the expected acceleration higher to 1.6407 after the break above the base channel resistance line. After a minor pause towards 1.6308, we should see a continuation higher towards 1.6830 as the next upside target. Longer term we are looking for much higher levels towards 1.6996 and 1.7274 on the way towards 1.8133 and likely even higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5826 and will move our stop higher to 1.6100. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6308 with the same stop at 1.6100.


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Gold Technical analysis for September 29, 2014

Gold price has held support at $1,207 on Friday and made a higher low at $1,212. Short-term trend is sideways and I prefer to stay neutral for now. My longer-term view remains bearish. My target remains at $1,000. We first need to break below $1,180. This will strengthen our bearish scenario.


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Blue line = support


Green line = price channel


Gold price as shown above in the 4 hour chart remains in a bearish trend. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and still inside the downward sloping green channel. However, price remains above the short-term support at $1,208. Breaking below that support will probably push Gold price towards $1,180. Breaking above $1,233 resistance could push Gold price towards $1,250-60.


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Red line= resistance


Blue line = support


In the 30-minute chart, we see the higher low made on Friday and this could signal a move towards $1,225-30 where resistance is found. Gold price is forming a sideways triangle as long as it trades between $1,233 and $1,212. The triangle is getting narrower and we should soon expect a break out. I prefer to stay neutral and wait for the break out before opening a position. A longer-term trend remains bearish, so we should also keep in mind that opening a long position is against the larger trend.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 29, 2014

General overview for 29/09/2014 09:00 CET

The market is developing in the anticipated way, still making higher highs as the impulsive wave progression has not been finished yet. The recent swing high at the level of 1.1177 has been labeled as wave -iii- top, so now this pair is in the corrective cycle wave -iv-. This means one more wave to the upside is still missing and when correction is done this wave will materialize. Please notice, that any violation of the level of 1.1126 will invalidate blue bullish impulsive count.


Support/Resistance:

1.1175 - Swing High

1.1148 - Intraday Support

1.1125 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Line

1.1100 - Weekly Pivot

1.1082 - Red Impulsive Count Invalidation Line

1.1035 - WS1


Trading recommendations:

Swing traders and day traders should consider moving the trailing stop loss orders for all buy positions just below the level of 1.1125 in case the corrective cycle will be more complex and deeper in retracement.


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Short-term analysis of USD/CAD for September 29, 2014

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The pair made the highest closing in the previous week. As we have been recommending to buy for the last couple of weeks for a target at 1.1145, 1.1195, 1.1224. We are still waiting for the rest of the targets. For the longer-term perspective, a strong breakout above 1.1230, we can see 1.1938. This view is valid with sl 1.0865. We initiated the buy at 1.1 in the August 22 article. As of now toady the pair went up approximately 200 pips, and we are still waiting for more upside. This week the pair opened on a very strong note (opened lower). We expect the uptrend to continue.


For an hourly and intraday view, the pair has support at 1.1151 and 1.1138, below this, 1.1110 and 1.1074. Use a dip to add the long positions.


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Intraday trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 29, 2014

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The cable has support at 200WEma. Consecutive 3 weeks the pair managed to close above 200Wema. This week we can expect further clear oneside direction in the near and short term. The cable has support at 1.6160, below this, 1.6050 and 1.60 is the strong support zone. A close below 1.60 only the short and medium term turns down. The trading pattern is framed between 1.60-1.66, a break either side will give further room for the rest of the year. On the down side, if it hits 1.60, it can fall to 1.59, 1.5850 and 1.5720 levels. The cable is making a broadening tip in the weekly chart at 1.64. It closed below the descending trend line and hit the ascending trend line. These factors are representing more bearish thoughts in the near term. A daily close above 1.63, the cable can fly up 100 pips, and a daily close above 1.64 only, it can fly up to 1.6575-1.66. Until it closes below 1.64, selling on every upmove will mint the money in the near term and on a weekly basis as well.


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For an intraday view, the prices are trading near hourly and intraday key moving averages. We recommend selling at the current market price or if any upmove takes place. We can see 1.62 and 1.6175 in a day or two. The pair has resistance at 1.6254, above this, 1.6282, 1.63 and 1.6345. Fresh upmove is only above 1.6345 towards 1.64-1.6415, strong upmove if only it closes above 1.64.


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Short-term forecast and intraday recommendations on Gold for September 29, 2014

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The metal has been testing its fate at $1,212 levels. Though the pair hit it during the intraday session, it managed to trade above it. In the monthly chart $1,212 is at 200MEma. A daily close below $1,215-$1,2$1,2, it can extend its fall to $1,200, $1,185-1,180, $1,150 and may be even $1,135 levels. Below 200MEma, the metal has support at 1,185 (200MSma). We have been recommending to sell the metal for a couple of weeks, the recommendation is the same. The near-term resistance is at $1,237, until the metal closes above $1,237 on a daily basis, the weekly trend favors selling on an upmove. On the down side for the weekly basis, the metal is holding support between $1,215-$1,212 levels.


A monthly close below $1,212, gates are open for $1,185-$1,150-$1,135- pending


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For an intraday basis, the metal has been facing strong resistance at hourly key moving averages at $1,219, above this only, the metal looks safe to buy on an hourly basis for a target at $1,224, $1,230 and $1,234 levels. On the down side, it has support at $1,215-$1,212, we recommend only selling below this. Today, as of now, buy above $1,219-$1,220.


Buy above $1,219-$1,220.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 29, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, Italian 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the economic data too such as the Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2736.

Strong Resistance:1.2728.

Original Resistance: 1.2716.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2704.

Target Inner Area: 1.2674.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2644.

Original Support: 1.2632.

Strong Support: 1.2620.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2612.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 29, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic news, but the US will release some economic data such as ore PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.96.

Resistance. 2: 109.75.

Resistance. 1: 109.53.

Support. 1: 109.26.

Support. 2: 109.05.

Support. 3: 108.83.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Fundamental analysis and intraday recommendations on EUR/USD for September 29, 2014

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The pair is trading at the lowest point of this year, it breached technical support. This week the pair has the couple of key economic events. The German and Spanish CPI data are the key data to focus on as well as the US core PCE price index. Tuesday, German retail sales and unemployment data, French consumer spending and CPI flash data are due. The Spanish and Italian manufacturing data is slated on Wednesday, and the key events are the Thursday ECB press conference, Spanish unemployment and US unemployment claims. The pair hit the 200MEma and is trading below it, it has parallel support at 1.266 (November 2011 low), below this, 1.25, 1.2435 and 1.22 levels. As we recommended earlier, on the down side, 1.22 will act as strong support. On the US dollar front, it has been teasing its counter pairs for the last couple of weeks and is still going on. The US dollar broke the 85 mark, which adds more pressure on the Euro towards 1.22-1.20 levels.


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For an intraday view, the prices are below 12ema and 34hrsma. Whenever the pair rises, the 34hrsma acts as strong hurdle and pushes it to new lows from there. The pair hourly and intraday resistance is at 1.2730 12ema, 1.2765 21hsma and 1.28 34hrsma. Until the prices close below 1.28, selling on every upmove will mint the money. The panic will be triggered below 1.266 towards 1.26 and 1.25 in the near term.


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for September 29, 2014

The weekly technical levels of EUR/USD


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Outlook :



  • The level of 1.2753 is going to form a coherent resistance on September 29, 2014. Moreover, it might be important to notice that the pivot point of the EUR/USD pair will set at the price of 1.2753. Also, it should be noted that the support was broken and turned to resistance last week. As a result in the short term it will very profitable to sell at 1.2650 with a target at 1.2606 in order to test the first support. On the other hand, the best place to set stop loss should be above the weekly pivot point.


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Review :



  • The pivot point: resistance 3 and support 3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well on sideways markets as the prices are most likely to be located between the resistance 1 and support 1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and to continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and even reach resistance 2 and resistance 3 or support 2 and support 3.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for September 29, 2014

The weekly technical levels of the GBP/USD pair.


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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD pair has still been trapped between the levels of 1.6235 and 1.6300. Also, it should be noted that the psychological level is at 1.6300 which represents the weekly pivot point on the 19th of September 2014.

  • Buy above the weekly support 1 at 1.6184 with the first target at 1.6280 in order to test the weekly pivot point, it might resume to 1.6315 in case the trend will be able to break the level of 1.63.

  • Another outlook: Below the resistance which sets at the level of 1.6366, look for further downside with 1.6305 and 1.62 targets. It should be noted that a double bottom will be formed at the level of 1.6161 in H1 chart.



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Warning :



  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

  • Risk to reward ratios are important and should be calculated.


Example :



  • A risk reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended:

  • Risk: 118 pips should make a profit of 177 pips.

  • 118 pips * 1:1.5 = 177 pips.


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Daily analysis of USDX for September 29, 2014

The USDX has made a significant bullish movement above the level of 85.18 on the daily chart, so it is very likely that the next target resistance level of 86.20 will be reached in the coming days, although the USDX is showing clear signs of overbought, due to its pronounced bullish trend in this chart.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 86.20 - 87.35


Daily chart's support levels: 85.18 - 84.29


In H1 the chart, the USDX has made a breakout at the level of 85.49, since this instrument had a strong bullish momentum over the support level of 85.27, then it consolidated under the resistance level of 85.73. However, remember that the USDX could start performing corrective Movements during this week, because the USDX is far from the current position of the 200-day moving average in this chart, in addition to the MACD indicator , that is entering overbought area.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.73 - 85.95


H1 chart's support levels: 85.49 - 85.27


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.73, take profit is at 85.95, and stop loss is at 85.49.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 29, 2014

On the weekly chart it can be seen that the GBP/USD is trying to form a lower low pattern over the dynamic support offered by the 200 SMA at the level of 1.6249, and below that area, this pair has formed a fractal, so it is very likely that the GBP/USD is making a rebound in the long term, to strengthen the bullish outlook in the long term.


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Weekly chart's resistance levels: 1.6478 - 1.6890


Weekly chart's support levels: 1.6249 - 1.6033


However, we can see on the H1 chart, at least in the short and medium term, the GBP/USD intends to continue the bearish trend for several more days, as this pair is consolidating below the 200-day moving average with the formation of a bearish pattern. If the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.6216, the next target would be set at the territory of the 1.6170 level, which could have much bullish force trying to cause bullish rebounds ofn this pair.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6252 – 1.6291


H1 chart's support levels: 1.6216 – 1.6170




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6338, take profit is at 1.6375, and stop loss is at 1.6299.


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