Trading plan 11/04/2018

Trade plan 11/04/2018

The general picture: We are waiting for the decline of the dollar.

On Wednesday, an inflation report from the U.S. will be released, particularly the retail CPI inflation. The inflation growth is not expected to rise above 2.1% for the "core", which excludes products and gasoline.

In the evening, minutes will appear from the Fed meeting in March at 18.00 London time. However, do not expect tough sentiment from the Fed. In addition, all investors understand that the Fed meeting in March could not take into account the tough attack of Trump on trade with China, as well as the subsequent wave of falling markets. Therefore, the value of the protocols has been reduced.

It is important to know whether there will be a blow to Syria. Nonetheless, both options are more likely against the US dollar.

For GBP / USD pair:

Our position is the same: we buy a pound from the level of 1.4100 or even from a big drop, down to 1.3700.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 11, 2018

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Our first target which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is supported by a rising trend line since April 10, which confirmed a bullish outlook. The 50-period moving average is turning up and is acting as a support. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. To conclude, as long as 106.55 is not broken, look for a further advance with targets at 107.45 and 107.75 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 106.55, take profit at 107.45

Resistance levels: 107.45, 107.75, and 107.30

Support levels: 106.25, 106.00, and 105.45.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 11, 2018

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Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9535, take profit at 0.9610.

Resistance levels: 0.9610, 0.9635, and 0.9655

Support levels: 0.9510, 0.9485, and 0.9450.

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Global macro overview for 11/04/2018

The head of the People's Bank of China has cut the speculations of recent days that the possible weakening of the yuan could be part of the trade wars. He also announced the greater opening of the Chinese financial market to foreign entities from June of the current year. In turn, the deputy minister of finance admitted that the reduction of customs duties on imported cars to China by Xi Jinping and other products could take place "as soon as possible". The White House said that he had noted the Chinese president's comments, but the US would like to see specific moves from the Chinese administration. In turn, Donald Trump wrote on Twitter, that the proposals of President Xi Jinping are a very good move. Thus, one can see a progress that allows overcoming the earlier fears related to the escalation of trade wars. However, only possible renegotiations of trade agreements will show how much the Chinese want to please Americans and the Chinese Americans, so the negotiations will be long and difficult. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that the impact of this factor on the market sentiment will slightly fade and we will focus on other aspects.

Moreover, today in the morning the global investors also saw data on Chinese March CPI and PPI inflation, which fell below estimates. This is especially true of consumer inflation reading, which unexpectedly fell by 1.1% m/m, and on the yearly basis, it decelerated to 3.1%.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture in the H4 time frame. The bulls were too weak to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 107.48 again, so the price has fallen towards the support at the level of 106.61. This level is the lower boundary of the parallel channel line as well, so the support should be quite solid right there. However, in a case of a further breakout lower, the next technical support is seen at the level of 105.99.

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Global macro overview for 11/04/2018

Ewald Nowotny, the head of the Austrian central bank and a member of the Governing Council of the ECB disturbing the calm of investors building skepticism around the EUR. However, his hawkish comments do not harmonize with the series of weaker data from the Eurozone, so cautiously with enthusiasm. Today, the USD has to face the CPI and the FOMC protocol, where the risks are opposed.

Nowotny, who is the leading hawk, said that the QE program will be closed by the end of the year, which would open the way for rate hikes. According to Nowotny, the first move may concern the deposit rate and amount to 20 bps from -0.4%. up to -0.2 percent. This is the first case when a member of the ECB gives particulars for monetary policy, although Nowotny did not specify the date of the increase. The ECB spokesman was unprecedented as well, who stressed that Nowotny's words were his private opinion. It has never happened before the spokesperson puts such a clear cut off from the Council member's words, which should give rise to the thought that the discussion on interest rates in the euro area is still at a very early stage. And from a macroeconomic point of view, now is the worst moment in months for considering tightening. In recent weeks inflation has disappointed, PMI indexes are moving away from highs, and readings from industrial production from Germany, France and Italy have shown an unexpected weakness. As a result, the market had reasons to increase its skepticism towards the EUR, but yesterday Nowotny's comments shook investors' confidence.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. Balance has been disturbed and some short positions have been removed from the market, which does not change the fact that EUR/USD still remains in a consolidation between the levels of 1.22-1.25. Moreover, the EUR bulls might lose enthusiasm for growth as soon as tomorrow's minutes from the ECB meeting in March show that Nowotny is in the minority with his bold theses. Today, however, there are still FOMC Meeting Minutes to be published, so the market response might get violent after this event.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 11, 2018

Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 28.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains bearish below the price levels of 1.2400 unless obvious daily bullish support is offered around the price level of 1.2200.

The bullish scenario is considered a low probability after the recent bearish breakdown of 1.2300 took place on April 3.

Moreover, the depicted Multiple-Top reversal pattern needs a bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis.

Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for April 11, 2018

EUR/AUD has been quite volatile recently which lead the price below 1.60 price area where it is currently struggling with the lack of bearish pressure in the market. Today EUR Italian Retail Sales report was published with a better than expected result at 0.4% increase from the previous value of -0.5% which was expected to be at 0.3% and ECB President Draghi is going to speak today as well which is expected to be quite neutral in nature as of no strong development was encountered recently on the EUR economy. On the other hand, today AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment report was published with a decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.2% and RBA Governor Phillip Lowe failed to impress the market participants to be biased on the AUD side. Governor Lowe talked about the imbalance of growth in the states of the country whereas Queensland and Western Australia have seen a rapid growth in comparison to others. Employment measure and Business Conditions has been quite different as well and for this imbalance total development is not being measured as a whole. As of the current scenario, if ECB fails to impress the market with better developments in the future then certain correction is expected while AUD is expected to be slow with the gains as of the recent economic reports interprets. To sum up, certain correction is expected to persist in the market whereas any negative economic result on the EUR side is expected to help in the gains of AUD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.60 with an impulsive daily close which did retest today recently and expected to push lower towards 1.5750 price area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.6060 area with a daily close, the further bearish pressure is expected.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 11, 2018

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All upside targets which we predicted in previous analysis have been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair has recorded a process of higher tops and higher bottom since April 9, which confirms a positive outlook. In addition, the prices are trading within a bullish channel. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a further advance. Therefore, above 150.95, look for a new rise with targets at 152.45 and 153 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.45, 153, and 153.75.

Support levels: 150.60, 150, and 149.30.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 11, 2018

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All our upside targets which we predicted in our previous analysis have been hit. NZD/USD remains on the upside, backed by its rising 50-period moving average. The process of higher highs and lows remains intact on the prices, which should confirm a positive outlook. Besides, the relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality area at 50. Hence, as long as 0.7345 is not broken, it's likely advance to 0.7385 and 0.7400 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7385, 0.7400, and 0.7450

Support levels: 0.7320, 0.7300, and 0.7265.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 11, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where there was evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High was expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

In general, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 remains a significant supply zone to offer a valid SELL entry during the current bullish pullback. S/L should be placed above 0.7450.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7200 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 11, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7294. The level of 0.7294 represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. The pair rose from the level of 0.7294 to a top around 0.7366. Right now, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7375 followed by 0.7436, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7294 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7294 and 0.7436; so we expect a range of 142 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7375, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7436) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7300 with the first target at 0.7375 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7436. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7436 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7294, a further decline to 0.7151 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 11, 2018

analytics5acde21a0322e.pngHowever, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 0.9650.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 11, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $6.790. Blockbid is now registered with the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (Austrac). This makes it only the third company granted permission to legally operate as a cryptocurrency exchange in Australia since the new regulations came about last week. Intraday technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found confrimed reversal head and shoulders pattern in the background, which is is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a successful re-test of the neckline, which is another sign of strength. My advce is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $6.910.

Support/Resistance

$6.821 – Intraday resistance

$6.705– Intraday support

$6.910 – Objective target

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Analysis of Gold for April 11, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,344.00. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential rising wedge in creation, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a rejection of the major resistance in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of a lower diagonal to confirm further downward movement. The first downward target Is set at the price of $1,338.85. The major target is set at the price of $1,320.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,344.40

R2: $1,349.23

R3: $1,355.75

Support levels:

S1: $1,332.91

S2: $1,326.26

S3: $1,321.42

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 11, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.4222. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a potential rising wedge in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a breakout of a lower diagonal. The downward target is set at the price of 1.4080.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4202

R2: 1.4225

R3: 1.4270

Support levels:

S1: 1.4135

S2: 1.4095

S3: 1.4066

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for April 11, 2018

EUR/GBP has recently bounced off the important support area of 0.87 which led the daily close to certain indecision in the market. Today is going to be volatile period for both EUR and GBP having a series of impactful economic reports to be published. Today, EUR Italian Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.5% and ECB President Draghi is going to speak about the interest rate decisions and monetary policies for the coming days which is expected to be quite neutral in nature. On the GBP side, today Manufacturing Production report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Goods Trade Balance is expected to have a slight decrease in deficit to -12.0B from the previous figure of -12.3B, Construction Output is expected to increase to 0.7% from the previous negative value of -3.4% and Industrial Production is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 1.3%. As of the current scenario, GBP is quite optimistic with the upcoming economic reports whereas EUR has mixed sentiment. If the GBP reports are better than expected than further bearish pressure is expected in the pair or else EUR is going to push the price higher for certain retracement in this volatile trend market.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 0.87 with a daily close which is expected to push the price higher towards the 0.8750 area before showing any bearish pressure in the coming days. The trend is still bearish despite the recent volatile and corrective structure of the market but as the price remains above 0.87 with a daily close, certain retrace is expected in this pair before the price proceeds lower with target towards 0.85 in the future. A daily close below 0.87 will lead to further bearish pressure in the market.

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Bitcoin analysis for 11/04/2018

Japan has provided new statistics on the use of cryptocurrencies, as regulators and industry players are pushing for more transparency on the domestic market. A report by the Japanese self-regulatory body, the Japanese Cryptocurrency Society (JCBA), was disclosed at a meeting of the study group commissioned by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). It analyzed various figures from the 17 major exchanges in 2017. The meeting was the first of its kind for the study group, which focuses particularly on issues related to the cryptocurrency exchange industry. The presented data paid particular attention to the gigantic increase in the volume attributed to cryptocurrency investments - Japan was promoted to the name of the largest market in terms of global turnover last year. With just $ 22 million of annual turnover in 2014, Bitcoin rose to $ 97 billion in 2017 - an increase of 340,000 percent in three years. Additional trade options including margins, loans and futures have exploded even more over the same period - from $ 2 million in 2014 to $ 543 billion in 2017. Last year, in Japan 3.5 million active investors took part in the domestic market.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is closed in a horizontal zone between the levels of $7,442 - $6,400 as the consolidation continues. The short-term key level to the upside remains at $7,442, so only a breakout above this level would change the current bias from bearish to bullish. On the other hand, a breakout below the level of $6,400 will open the way towards the key long-term technical support at the level of $5,820.

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Trading plan for 11/04/2018

The weaker data on inflation from China has undermined optimism in the Asian session. The biggest changes are on AUD and NZD cross versus JPY. Oil is lower after the adverse effect of the API report. Mixed moods are on the stock market. The Nikkei gave the initial increases and loses 0.4 percent. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite is defending itself by 0.6%.

On Wednesday 11th of April, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. Italy will issue the Retail Sales data, the UK will post the Manufacturing and Industrial Production data, Goods Trade Balance and Construction Output data. Meanwhile, the US will post CPI and Core CPI data, Crude Oil Inventories data and FOMC Meeting Minutes in the evening. Moreover, there is a scheduled speech from ECB President Mario Draghi later in the day.

Crude Oil analysis for 11/04/2018:

According to the API report, last week crude oil inventories in the US rose 1.8 million barrels after a drop of 3.3 million barrels a week earlier. This is an unexpected result for the forecast before the Department of Energy report assuming a drop in inventories by 1m bbl. Gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels and distillates dropped by 3.8 million. In general, the report had a slightly negative tone which meant a decrease of about 30 cents for WTI prices. The second one was done after disappointment with data from China and now WTI is just under 65.3 USD per barrel.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture on the H4 time frame. The recent spike up from the oversold market conditions resulted in a local top at the level of 65.84, just below the key technical resistance at the level of 66.69. The momentum followed the price as it broke above its fifty level as well. The spike looks solid and strong, and bulls might try to test the wall of resistance between the levels of 66.35 - 66.69. If this zine is violated, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 50% Fibo retracement at 66.84. The immediate support is seen at the level of 64.16.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 11, 2018

The Dollar index is in a bearish trend. We warned that a break and stay below the 4 hour cloud was a bearish sign. Price is breaking below support levels and is heading towards 2018 lows.

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Blue lines - trading range

On a daily basis, the Dollar index is still moving sideways. The price is below the cloud and could very well challenge the lower trading range boundary at low 88's. Resistance that bulls must break for a big bounce to follow is at 90.55.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 11, 2018

Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Price has broken out of the cloud resistance and above the trend line resistance at $1,343. So far, bulls remain in control of the short-term trend.

Black line - resistance

In the daily chart, Gold price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Trend is bullish. Cloud support is at $1,326. As long as the price is above $1,326, bulls will remain in control. Important resistance is at $1,345-53. A rejection at that area will certainly bring the price back to $1,330-25.

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Burning forecast 04/11/2018

Burning forecast 04/11/2018

EURUSD: Look forward to continuing growth.

Today there are important data on the US: CPI inflation will be released at 12:30 PM London time and at 6:00 PM London time in the evening - the report from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve. ("minutes").

Political tension remains the main factor for the markets, but there is some reduction in tension:

"Trade War" Trump - China retreated - after the speech of China's very peace-loving leader Xi Jinping in Boao on Tuesday - U.S. President Donald Trump commented very positively on Xi's speech - and promised successful negotiations on trade with China.

The second source of tension is Syria. On the one hand, Trump promised a military strike on Syria with an ultimatum of 48 hours, and they will expire today. At the same time, despite the blocking of decisions in the United Nations by Russia and the United States (mutually), - there is a decision on the arrival in Syria of experts from the OPCW (Organization for the prohibition of chemical weapons). Unexpectedly: Britain's leader Theresa May demanded more weighty evidence of Syria's use of chemical weapons - as a condition for Britain's participation in a military strike against Syria.

Perhaps, the US attack on Syria will be postponed - and maybe even canceled - depends on the evidence of the use of chemical weapons on April 7 by Syria.

As a result, there is a chance for a calm continuation of the euro's growth.

Buy the EURUSD from 1.2350, stop at 1.2305, profit at 1.2680.

Alternative: Sell from 1.2215, stop at 1.2260, target 1.2000.

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