Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on July 24th

For the euro/dollar pair, the main continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1620. The level of 1.1539 is the key support. For the pound/dollar pair, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2778. The level of 1.2684 is the key support. For the dollar/franc pair, the continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9235. The level of 0.9285 is the key support. For the dollar/yen pair, we are following the downward structure from July 20. The level of 106.38 is the key resistance, while the level of 106.76 is the key support. For the euro/yen pair, we continue to monitor the upward structure from July 10. The level of 123.21 is the key support. For the pound/yen pair, we follow the upward structure from July 17. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 136.60. The level of 135.18 is the key support.

Forecast for July 24:

Analytical overview of currency pairs on the H1 scale:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1662, 1.1619, 1.1564, 1.1539, 1.1498 and 1.1421. Here, we are following the July 10 upward structure. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1619. In this case, the target is 1.1662. Price consolidation and a pullback into correction are expected from here.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1564 - 1.1539. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.1498. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1620 Take profit: 1.1660

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.1563 Take profit: 1.1540

Sell: 1.1537 Take profit: 1.1500

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2885, 1.2823, 1.2778, 1.2709, 1.2684 and 1.2644. Here, we are following the July 14 rising structure. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2778 - 1.2824. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2885. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2709 - 1.2684. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2644. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from July 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2779 Take profit: 1.2821

Buy: 1.2826 Take profit: 1.2885

Sell: 1.2709 Take profit: 1.2685

Sell: 1.2682 Take profit: 1.2645

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9346, 0.9325, 0.9285, 0.9260, 0.9235, 0.9210, 0.9194 and 0.9162. Here, we are following the development of the July 16 downward cycle. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9235. In this case, the target is 0.921. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9210 - 0.9194. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9162. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9260 - 0.9285. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.9325. The range of 0.9346 - 0.9325 is the key support for the downward structure from July 16.

The main trend is the descending structure from July 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9260 Take profit: 0.9283

Buy : 0.9287 Take profit: 0.9325

Sell: 0.9235 Take profit: 0.9210

Sell: 0.9194 Take profit: 0.9162

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 107.05, 106.76, 106.59, 106.38, 106.04, 105.81, 105.52 and 105.33. Here, we are following the formation of the July 20 downtrend structure. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.38. In this case, the target is 106.04. There is a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 106.04 - 105.81. The breakdown of the level of 105.80 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 105.33. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation in the range of 105.52 - 105.33, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 106.59 - 106.76. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 107.05. This is a key support level for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure from July 20

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.60 Take profit: 106.74

Buy : 106.78 Take profit: 107.05

Sell: 106.34 Take profit: 106.06

Sell: 106.03 Take profit: 105.83

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3539, 1.3517, 1.3468, 1.3437, 1.3395, 1.3358, 1.3303, 1.3274 and 1.3211. Here, we are following the downward structure from July 14th. A consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.3395 - 1.3358. The breakdown of the last value will lead to movement to the level of 1.3303. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3303 - 1.3274. We consider the level of 1.3211 as a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this level, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3437 - 1.3468. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3517. The range of 1.3517- 1.3539 is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure from July 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3437 Take profit: 1.3466

Buy : 1.3469 Take profit: 1.3517

Sell: 1.3495 Take profit: 1.3360

Sell: 1.3357 Take profit: 1.3303

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7222, 0.7178, 0.7149, 0.7128, 0.7084, 0.7057, 0.7018, 0.6994 and 0.6959. Here we are watching the upward structure from July 14. At the current moment, the price is in correction and is forming a potential for a downward movement from July 22. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7084 - 0.7057. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7018. There is a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 0.7018 - 0.6994. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6959. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7128 - 0.7149. The breakdown of the last level will favor the development of an upward structure. In this case, the first target is 0.7178. We consider the level 0.7222 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

The main trend is the local upward structure of July 14, the stage of correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7128 Take profit: 0.7149

Buy: 0.7151 Take profit: 0.7178

Sell : 0.7084 Take profit : 0.7060

Sell: 0.7055 Take profit: 0.7018

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 125.37, 124.66, 124.26, 123.67, 123.21, 122.56 and 122.26. Here, we are following the July 10 upward structure. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range 124.26 - 124.66. The breakdown of the last level will allow us to count on a movement to a potential target - 125.37. Upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 123.67 - 123.21. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 122.56. The range of 122.56 - 122.26 is the key support for the upside.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.26 Take profit: 124.66

Buy: 124.70 Take profit: 125.35

Sell: 123.65 Take profit: 123.25

Sell: 123.18 Take profit: 122.60

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 138.41, 137.73, 137.25, 136.55, 136.04, 135.48, 135.18 and 134.75. Here, we are following the July 17 upward structure. A consolidated movement is expected in the range 136.04 - 136.55. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 137.25. There is a short-term upward movement in the range of 137.25 - 137.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.41. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.48 - 135.18. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 134.75. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 17

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.60 Take profit: 137.25

Buy: 137.27 Take profit: 137.70

Sell: 135.16 Take profit: 134.80

Sell: 134.75 Take profit: 134.10

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on July 24

EUR/USD

Analysis:

On the euro market, quotes continue to climb to the "north" of the price chart. The preliminary calculation shows the area of the 119th price figure as the likely zone for completing the current rise. The price is approaching the next zone of intermediate resistance.

Forecast:

Today, we should expect mainly lateral movement of the pair in the corridor between the nearest oncoming zones. By the end of the day, the chance of returning to the upward movement increases, with a possible break through the upper limit of the nearest resistance.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 1.1720/1.1750

- 1.1620/1.1650

Support:

- 1.1540/1.1510

Recommendations:

Sales are possible in the euro market today, however, it is worth considering the limited potential for decline. In the area of calculated support, you should look for signals to enter long positions.

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GBP/USD

Analysis:

The direction of short-term trends of the British pound is set by the downward wave from June 10. The current upward pullback over the past month does not yet go beyond the correction of this wave. The price has reached the lower limit of the probable completion zone, however, there are no reversal signals yet.

Forecast:

In the coming day, the general flat mood of the movement is likely on the pound chart. After an attempt to put pressure on the resistance zone, the exchange rate is expected to change and decrease to the area of calculated support. After that, you should wait for the resumption of the upward course.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 1.2760/1.2790

Support:

- 1.2670/1.2640

Recommendations:

Trading in the coming sessions is only possible with short-term trades. Before the emergence of clear signals of a reversal, purchases are in priority. In the first half of the day, short-term sales of the pair are possible.

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Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted ones show the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time!

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UK economy could collapse in the second quarter

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The UK economy has been recovering ever since quarantine restrictions were lifted in the country. However, prospects remain bleak and even deteriorated over the past month, according to a poll conducted by Reuters.

"The economy could collapse in the second quarter. But, the good news is that in terms of monthly trajectory, there is clear evidence that the economy has continued to boom since May," said Philip Shaw of Investec. "The task, of course, is to prevent the economy from falling apart," he added.

The poll reveals that more than seventy economists who were surveyed expect the economy to contract by 9.1% this year and recover to 6.0% in 2021. In the worst case, the economy will decline by 13.0% this year.

The official data on GDP says the economy recovered 1.8% more slowly in May than expected, so the British government increased its spending to accelerate economic growth, borrowing £ 128 billion last quarter, which is five times more than what it borrowed at the same period last year.

"The authorities generally did what they needed to do," said Peter Dixon of Commerzbank.

The main element of government support was a payment scheme for 80% of wages, provided that employees were fired rather than quarantined.

Another problem for the UK is the expiration of Brexit transition at the end of this year.

Both the UK and the EU resumed negotiations on Tuesday, but so far no consensus has been found still. Nevertheless, reaching an agreement is achievable, according to German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas.

On Thursday, the Bank of England announced that it, along with the government, need to make conditions more attractive to insurers, pensions and funds in order to attract investments for companies that need to recover from the coronavirus.

Alex Barrett, chief executive of the Bank of England's financial stability and risk strategy, said that many businesses who took out loans during the crisis will need to raise equity financing.

According to him, there is a need for a rule change that unfairly favors funds.

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USD/JPY. Yen came out of hibernation and updated the monthly low

The dollar/yen pair came out of hibernation and renewed its monthly low, reaching 106.37 during the Asian session on Friday. At the same time, Japan is celebrating a few holidays - the country celebrated the Day of the Sea yesterday, and today it is the Day of Health and Sports. The economic calendar is empty, which means the pair is moving in the wake of the US currency, which continues to lose ground.

Let me remind you that the pair has been trading within the 107th figure over the past three weeks, occasionally leaving this price range. Then the pair began to gradually decline to the 106th price level, but with upward pullbacks. The USD/JPY bears needed a strong downward breakout, but conflicting fundamentals prevented sellers from launching such an offensive.

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But the downward dynamics of the US currency has recently begun to acquire an avalanche-like character. If the dollar index was around 97 points at the beginning of July, today this indicator has fallen to the March lows, that is, in the area of the 94th figure. The coronavirus continues to "eat up" the greenback positions, although COVID-19 was the main ally of the dollar throughout the spring. But there was no trace of the former excitement, and now the pandemic has turned against the US currency. The number of cases and deaths from the virus continues to grow in the United States, causing justified alarm among investors. Only now the yen, which acts as the main protective asset in the foreign exchange market, has become the beneficiary of the worrying sentiment.

The situation with coronavirus continues to worsen in the United States. The daily growth rate continues to steadily increase. Just last Sunday, around 45,000 new patients were reported in the country. The 60,000 mark was initially broken, and then came the 70,000 mark on Wednesday. Yesterday, around 76,000 infected people were detected in the United States. In other words, there is a negative upward trend, and this fact puts quite a lot of pressure on the greenback. The greatest number of infected is observed in California (there are 421,857 cases to date), second line of the list is New York (409,697 cases), followed by Florida (389,868 cases), followed by Texas (363,615). The state of Florida is of particular concern, namely the city of Miami, which has already been dubbed the "American Wuhan". There are 10,000 (!) new cases of infection registered daily. The city has already tightened quarantine restrictions, but so far the incidence is not declining.

The White House still maintains a passively observant position and does not intend to repeat the spring scenario. But states may tighten quarantine restrictions at the local level, and many of them have already begun similar actions. This fact has already affected the dynamics of the recovery of the labor market: after a 14-week recession, the growth rate of the number of applications for unemployment benefits again showed negative dynamics. Instead of the projected decline to 1.3 million, the indicator rose to 1.416 million. The pullback is relatively small, but the trend itself is important here, especially against the background of the aggravation of the epidemiological situation in the country.

Another fundamental factor exerts indirect pressure on the dollar. The fact is that a new fault line has formed in relations between China and the United States: for the first time in 40 years after the restoration of diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, the White House has decided to close the PRC consulate in Houston, Texas. At the same time, US President Donald Trump did not rule out that after this diplomatic mission, others may be closed. As explained in the state department, "Houston" Chinese diplomats were caught in visa fraud and industrial espionage (theft of intellectual property). Beijing promised to respond with measures, although it did not specify which ones.

In general, this situation has become another reminder that relations between the PRC and the United States are going through hard times. The statement of this fact became another reason for strengthening the dollar's sell-off.

At the moment, the downward momentum of USD/JPY is gradually fading away, but the priority still remains on the side of the bears. Only two factors can help the dollar in the foreseeable future: if Congress approves the allocation of additional funds to help the economy; and if the coronavirus loses its grip. Given the ongoing debate between Republicans and Democrats over the new stimulus package, and given the upward trend in COVID-19 incidence, it can be assumed that the yen may increase its pressure in the medium term, directing the USD/JPY price towards the bottom of the 106th figure.

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From a technical point of view, the pair is currently testing the support level of 106.50 – this is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The price is located under all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which formed a strong bearish Parade of lines signal. This shows a clear advantage of the downward movement. From the current positions, we can consider sales to the local price low, which corresponds to the level of 106.05.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 24, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has tested the technical support located between the levels of 1.2668 - 1.2686 and bounced back up. Nevertheless, the price has been trading inside of a narrow range between the levels of 1.2668 - 1.2768 for some time now. This price behavior shows the bulls are in control of the market, so traders should expect the price might move higher towards the next targets located at the levels of 1.2768 - 1.2786. The ultimate target is still seen at the level of 1.2811 and if this level is violated, then the Pound will be at the 7 week high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2834

WR2 - 1.2735

WR1 - 1.2648

Weekly Pivot - 1.2555

WS1 - 1.2463

WS2 - 1.2373

WS3 - 1.2271

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 24, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the EUR/USD pair had broken through the long-term technical resistance located at the level of 1.1540, the up trend has been confirmed and it is being continued. Currently, the market is trying to extend the rally towards the level of 1.1629 or higher towards the level of 1.1648. The momentum is still strong and positive, but the market conditions are now overbought, so please keep in mind the pull-back scenario during the trading activities. If the support zone seen at the levels of 1.1497 - 1.1483 is clearly violated, then the bigger correction can take place with a target at the level of 1.1361 - 1.1347.The most important for bulls will be the weekly (2 days left) and monthly close (6 days left).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1642

WR2 - 1.1541

WR1 - 1.1496

Weekly Pivot - 1.1397

WS1 - 1.1342

WS2 - 1.1243

WS3 - 1.1193

Trading Recommendations:

The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540 has been violated, so the EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.1813 - 1.1851. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

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Ripple aiming for 0.2127 on July 24, 2020

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Ripple is now aiming to reach the 0.2127 level as the target on the 4 Hour Chart. Before the cryptocurrency reaches that level, Ripple has to raid first the 0.2084 level, although there is a possibility to retrace downwards as long as the price does not break out and closes below 0.1979. Then, the upward movement of this cryptocurrency still has a chance to continue.

(Disclaimer)

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for July 24, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may roll back down from the level of 1.1598 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.1560 - a 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target of 1.1519 - a 23.6% pullback level (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today the price may move downward with the target of 1.1560 - a 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target of 1.1519 - a 23.6% pullback level (red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is an upward movement after breaking through the resistance line 1.1599 (black bold line) with the next target at 1.1824 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on July 24, 2020

Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair on July 24

EUR/USD

Analysis of transactions

The euro, albeit not immediately, rose after the quote passed the level of 1.1588, reaching the target value 1.1624. The reason for it was the weak data on the US labor market, which weakened the position of the US dollar in the trading chart.

Today, a number of important macroeconomic reports in the eurozone are to be published, in which if there comes an increase in activity in both the manufacturing and services sector, price will rise in the trading chart. But if data turns out to be weaker than forecasts, a drop is likely to occur at the end of the week.

Thus,

  • Buy positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.1619 (green line on the chart), targeting the level of 1.1655. It may occur after the data on economic activity in Germany is published. Exit the market when the price reaches a value of 1.1655.
  • Sell positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.1586 (red line on the chart), targeting the level of 1.1542. To drop the price even more, weak indicators of activity in the eurozone are needed, because such will negatively affect the prospects for economic recovery. Hence, it is best to sell the EUR/USD pair after the release of reports, and not before them. Exit the market when the quote is at a value of 1.1542.

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Trading recommendations for the GBP/USD pair on July 24

GBP/USD

Analysis of transactions

The quote tested the level of 1.2722, which led to a drop in price in the trading chart.

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A number of important reports for the United Kingdom are to be published today, one of which is the latest data on retail sales. It will be followed by reports on activity in the services sector, which makes up the bulk of the UK economy. These indicators are very important so the direction of the pound depends on it.

  • Buy positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.2748 (green line on the chart), targeting the level of 1.2776 (thicker green line on the chart). If the data on PMI turns out to be good, the rate of the GBP/USD pair will rise in the trading chart. Take profit when the quote reaches the value 1.2776.
  • Sell positions when the quote reaches today's low, which is the level of 1.2722 (red line on the chart). This is because usually, a breakout from the lows lead to large sell-offs in the currency pair, since profit is taken on long positions that have accumulated along the trend. A test of the level will lead to a drop in price to the value of 1.2686, where it is best to exit the market.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 24, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Steve Wozniak's lawyers and 17 others who have suffered from Bitcoin scams on YouTube have sued the platform and parent company Google for not taking swift action to ban the content.

According to a statement from the law firm Cotchett, Pitre & McCarthy, Google and its subsidiary YouTube have failed to protect users from fraudulent Bitcoin channels featuring photos and videos of Wozniak and other celebrities. Hijacked channels launch giveaway scams stating that anyone who sends cryptocurrencies to a specific address will receive significantly more cryptocurrencies in return when in fact they will not receive anything.

"If YouTube was acting fast to contain it to a reasonable degree, we wouldn't be here right now. YouTube, like Google, appears to rely on algorithms, and no special efforts have been made requiring special software for this type of criminal activity. If a crime is committed, you must be able to reach people who can stop it. Which person will see such posts and not immediately block them as criminal?" - said Wozniak.

According to Joe Cotchett, one of Cotchett's partners Pitre & McCarthy, YouTube "knowingly allowed Bitcoin scams for months, promoted and profited from it by selling targeted advertising."

The lawsuit concerns Wozniak and 17 others from the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, Malaysia, China and Europe who were victims of the fraud.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made another up candle during the move and the local high was made at the level of $9,625, which is above the technical resistance located at the level of $9,530. Currently, the market is consolidating the recent gains around the level of $9,470. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,290. If violated, the next one is located at the level of $9,202. Please notice, that bulls might continue the rally towards the level of $10,000 before any significant pull-back.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,569

WR2 - $9,411

WR1 - $9,271

Weekly Pivot - $9,117

WS1 - $8,968

WS2 - $8,812

WS3 - $8,862

Trading Recommendations:

The volatility on Bitcoin has been subdued for more than two months now, so the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 24 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pound remains in the channel. Another

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. Bears tried to break through below the middle of the channel yesterday and even formed an entry point into short positions from there, but this did not lead to a larger sell-off. And then the bulls took the initiative, also forming a good signal to buy the pound. Let's look at it in more detail. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the breakout of the 1.2701 support and its test from the bottom up became a good point for opening short positions. However, the downward movement was no more than 30 points, and the dollar began to lose ground after weak reports on the US labor market were released. Only then, the bulls regained the area of 1.2701, and its top-down test formed a good entry point into long positions in the expectation of continuing the bull market. This signal caused the pound to return to the area of weekly highs, where trading stopped. At the moment, the pair is stuck in a side channel and the further direction of the market will depend on which way the breakout will occur. The bulls need to protect the support of 1.2701 and forming a false breakout at this level will be a signal for you to open long positions to continue the current bull market. An equally important goal is a breakout and consolidating above this week's high of 1.2763, which also forms a signal to buy the pound with continued growth in the area of 1.2809 and 1.2906, where I recommend taking profits. Data on retail sales volume, which is released today in the morning, can help buyers of the pound. If there is no activity in the support area of 1.2701, it is best to postpone long positions until the low of 1.2645 has been updated and buy the pound there immediately for a rebound based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the COT report for July 14 indicated that during the week there was an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 56,300 to the level of 56,761. During this time, long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 39,892 to the level of 43,175. As a result, the non-commercial net position decreased its negative value to -13,568, against -16,408, which indicates that the market is still under pressure, but there are fewer and fewer willing to sell.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers have a great chance to return to the market, but they need to work hard. First of all, you need to prevent a breakout of the 1.2763 resistance and form a false breakout on it, which will be the first signal to open short positions. The goal of such an entry is support of 1.2701, consolidating below it will only increase the pressure on the pound, which will lead to a complete overlap of yesterday's growth and updating the low of 1.2645, where I recommend taking profits. Support for 1.2585 is still the long-term goal. With the growth of GBP/USD above the resistance of 1.2763 in the first half of the day, you can rely on poor data on the volume of retail trade in the UK, which will have a significant impact on the market. If there are no sellers at the 1.2763 level, I advise you to postpone short positions until the high of 1.2809 has been updated, or sell the pound immediately on the rebound from the resistance of 1.2906, based on a correction of 30-40 points by the end of the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pound falls, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2690 will provide support. Breaking the upper limit in the area of 1.2765 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 24 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Euro growth depends on eurozone data.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's data on the US labor market weakened the greenback's position against the euro, and a false breakout formed at the 1.1555 level, which I drew attention to in my review for the second half of the day, leading EUR/USD to return to the area of weekly highs. However, weak results on the eurozone consumer confidence indicator did not make it possible for the bulls to build a new upward trend. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that after the pair fell in the first half of the day, a false breakout formed in the support area of 1.15555, which became an excellent entry point into long positions further along the trend. At the moment, buyers should protect the support of 1.1591, a false breakout at this level forms a new signal to open long positions to continue the bullish market. Buyers will initially aim for resistance at 1.1647, its breakout will lead to a test of the high of 1.1682, where I recommend taking profits. A lot will depend on what kind of reports will be released on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the eurozone countries. If the indicators fall short of the forecast, then after EUR/USD returns to the area below the support of 1.1591, it would be best to postpone long positions until the low of 1.1490 has been updated. But I recommend opening long positions immediately for a rebound from the support of 1.1428 based on a correction of 25-30 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for July 14 recorded an increase in long positions and a very small rise in short ones, which indicates a gradual increase in demand for risky assets. There are more and more people willing to buy euros in the current conditions and at high prices,which may lead to further growth in the medium term. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 881,562 to the level of 83,340, while long non-commercial positions jumped from the level of 185,159 to the level of 194,252. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position increased to 110,912, against 103,597, which indicates an increase in interest in purchasing risky assets at current prices.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers are trying to do something, but traders are very willing to buy euros at any convenient correction. We need to wait for today's release of reports on activity in the eurozone countries. If the indicators turn out to be worse than economists' forecasts, the pressure on the euro may increase. However, I recommend opening short positions against the trend only after returning and consolidating below the 1.1591 level. The main goal of the bears is to return to the support level of 1.1541, its breakout will lead to a larger sell-off in the area of the low of 1.1490, where I recommend taking profits. The euro will continue to grow if activity reports come out better than economists' forecasts. In this scenario, you can count on sales after updating the resistance at 1.1647, provided that a false breakout is formed there. Or sell EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from the larger high of 1.1682, counting on a correction of 25-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of a further bull market.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1645 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A break in the lower border at 1.1565 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 24, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

China's Supreme People's Court said the country's legal system should strengthen the protection of property rights in digital currencies.

The new Supreme Court guidelines published in the section "Strengthening judicial protection of property rights and rights to capital" state that the legal system should strengthen the protection of new types of property rights, such as digital currencies, online virtual assets and data.

While the court has not elaborated on or provided a definition of "digital currencies", the guideline comes at a time as China is experiencing an increasing number of legal disputes over the ownership of digital assets, including major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Previously, legal decisions were made by provincial and municipal courts in China, where digital currencies such as Bitcoin were treated as virtual real estate. This is the first time the country's highest judicial authority has addressed this issue.

The guidelines were published by the Supreme People's Court together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

The NDRC is China's most important economic planning agency and one of the 26 cabinet-level ministries that make up the central government, namely the Council of State.

The opinion was issued in response to earlier guidance from the State Council in May calling for acceleration of improvements in the Chinese socialist market economy. The Supreme Court's guidelines reflect the opinion of the legal system at the highest level regarding judicial services and protection.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been continuing the impulsive wave up and made another big up candle with the high at the level of $279.74. The bears has made a local pull-back and are pushing the ETH/USD up again. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $259.81, but the key technical support is located between the levels of $252.03 - $248.86. The momentum is still positive abd strong, so the Ethereum bulls can still attack the next target seen at the level of $288.01, which is the high from February 2020.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $258.07

WR2 - $250.97

WR1 - $242.31

Weekly Pivot - $235.59

WS1 - $227.18

WS2 - $291.82

WS3 - $211.48

Trading Recommendations:

The volatility on Ethereum is now lower than usual, so all the dynamic moves up and down might reverse quickly. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Litecoin trying to test 45.56 on July 24, 2020.

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According to the 4-hour chart, Litecoin made a retracement to 44.16 - 43.72. Later, it will try going up with the first target of 45.56 and 46.62 as the secondary upward target. This bullish scenario will be automatically canceled if this cryptocurrency goes down and closes below the 42.95 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD on 07/24/20

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The EUR/USD currency pair managed to show high activity during the past day, which was caused by the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which caused both joy and fear among traders.

So the number of repeated applications for benefits declined from 17,304,000 to 16,197,000, which led to the local growth of the US dollar at the time of publication of the data. In turn, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits reflected an increase from 1,307,000 to 1,416,000 for the first time since March, with a forecast decline to 1,300,000, which shocked investors, worsening the situation in the US labor market. The growth of primary orders led to a sharp weakening of the US dollar from 13:00 [UTC+00 time on the trading terminal].

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, there are preliminary data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector for July for Europe and the United States, where the index is expected to grow everywhere, which may eventually lead to sideways movement in the market.

Regarding the technical picture, there is a sideways fluctuation, after a jump in the activity of the previous day at 1.1588/1.1625, where if the price consolidates below the level of 1.1585, the lower border can be extended to 1.1565. At the same time, the expansion of the upper border can be 1.1650.

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The GBP/USD currency pair found a resistance point at the level of 1.2770 once again, where the quote immediately stopped and entered the pullback phase. Since the beginning of the trading week, this is the third touchdown of the level of 1.2770, which indicates that the upward interest remains, but the volume of buyers is not enough, which leads to a natural rebound in the price.

Considering the available analysis, it is worth continuing to work on two trading tactics, a rebound from the resistance area and work on its breakdown.

It is recommended to buy a pair if the price consolidates above the level of 1.2770 with the prospect of a move to 1.2810-1.2885

It is recommended to sell the pair using the method of rebounding from the resistance area, where in this case, the entry into the position can be made lower than 1.2720, in the direction of the values 1.2700-1.2685.

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For the USD/CAD currency pair, there is a strong downward movement during which the quote managed to decline to the area of 1.3350/1.3380, which has repeatedly played the role of support in the market in history. A consistent rebound of the price from the same coordinates forms a natural basis in the market, which is used by traders.

Based on the analysis of the price area 1.3350/1.3380, it can be assumed that if the rebound pattern repeats, the price may reverse in the direction of the values 1.3465-1.3490. To minimize risks, it is advised to enter the market already at the moment of price movement, that is, above the level of 1.3430.

An alternative scenario, which every trader should have, considers a breakdown of the area of 1.3350/1.3380 in a downward direction. The signal for this step will be the price consolidation below 1.3315, which will indicate a breakdown of the support area and increase the chances of further decline in the direction of 1.3250-1.3200.

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GBPUSD approaching support, potential bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.27117

Reason for Entry: Ascending trend line, horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 1.27948

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.26715

Reason for Stop Loss: Horizontal swing low support

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AUDUSD holding below descending trendline resistance! Drop incoming!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.71359

Reason for Entry: Descending trendline resistance

Take Profit: 0.70914

Reason for Take Profit: Recent graphical swing low

Stop Loss: 0.71613

Reason for Stop Loss: Recent swing high

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 24, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro has so far paused with a downward turn, spending the entire day in the target range of 1.1560-1.1620. Consolidating the price above the upper limit of the range will provoke further growth to 1.1735 (August 28, 2018 high), but with a 60% probability, we expect a price reversal to 1.1420 and further into a medium-term decline. The Marlin divergence is slowly being created.

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The price consolidates under the target level of 1.1620 on the four-hour chart, which creates an increased probability of its breakout. However, the Marlin oscillator turns down, showing a weakening trend. Yesterday's trading volumes were noticeably lower than Wednesday's.

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Despite the reduced probability of a price reversal from current levels (from 70% to 60%), we are waiting for this main scenario to be implemented. Consolidating the price at 1.1560 will be the first signal of its development.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on July 24. COT report. UK economy continues to fall and could lose

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair once again corrected to the 1.2636-1.2660 area on Thursday, this time without working it out. However, the quotes did not go below this area. Thus, the upward movement resumed, and the initiative remained in the hands of buyers. As a result, the pair returned to the resistance level of 1.2755 by the end of the trading day. A new price rebound from this target could trigger a new round of corrective movement. The new upward trend line was canceled very quickly, as so far traders have not been able to withdraw the pair above 1.2755 or below 1.2638. Thus, even a kind of flat was formed, which you are advised to be careful with.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lower channel of the linear regression turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling a possible change in the trend. However, there is no confirmation of this yet either on this chart or on the higher one. The latest Commitment of traders (COT) report showed that professional traders (the non-commercial category) continued to open Buy positions, but not as zealously as before. In total, only 2,800 contracts were opened. However, the opposing category of commercial traders (those who enter the foreign exchange market in order to purchase currency for their commercial activities) closed both Buy and Sell contracts during the same reporting week. The British currency still continued to grow in value in the period from July 15 to 21. This means that the new COT report can demonstrate a new strengthening of the bullish mood among traders. The pound began to appreciate even more after July 21, so we expect to see an increase in the net position in the next reports. If this does not happen, we will assume that large traders are preparing to change the trend of the pair to a downward one.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair remains positive at the moment, but only due to the events taking place in the US, which we write about almost every day. In fact, nothing optimistic is coming from either the UK or the US. The British economy continues to contract. If America is currently facing four crises, Britain is facing three economic crises. We are talking about a crisis caused by the pandemic, a recession caused by Brexit, and a recession that is bound to happen due to the lack of trade agreements with the US and the European Union, which British Prime Minister Boris Johnson regularly talks about, but the negotiations are not moving forward. So it seems that the pound will maintain an upward mood as long as traders have enough of the negative background from overseas. As soon as traders recall that the economic situation in the UK is even worse (possible losses in 2020 are 14%, while in the United States a decline of only 5-6% is expected), this can immediately cause a serious sell-off of the British currency. On Friday, we advise traders to pay attention to reports on business activity in the UK manufacturing and services sectors, as well as changes in retail sales. Strong numbers in these reports can add confidence to buyers, and the pound/dollar pair can continue its upward movement. At the same time, similar reports on business activity in the US are unlikely to cause a strong reaction from market participants.

There are two main options for the development of events on July 24:

1) The outlook for the bulls continues to be very positive. Buyers have returned to the important level 1.2755. Thus, you are advised to continue buying the pound while aiming for levels 1.2812 and 1.2846, if traders manage to confidently overcome the current target 1.2755, from which the rebound occurred last time. Potential Take Profit in this case will amount to another 40 to 80 points.

2) Sellers are advised to start considering the possibility of opening short positions with the targets of the Senkou Span B line (1.2565) and the support level 1.2474, but for this they need to wait for the Kijun-sen line (1.2638) to be overcome. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 60 to 150 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on July 24. COT report. Angela Merkel, David Sassoli and Christine

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair quickly corrected to the 1.1544 level on the hourly timeframe on July 23, which was previously a resistance and now a support. A rebound from this level provoked the expected resumption of the upward movement and by the end of the day the pair practically reached the next resistance level of 1.1631. Thus, bulls continue to dominate the market, and the fact that the price is above the rising channel suggests that the upward buying sentiment is not weakening at all. Thus, since the first target has already been reached, buyers need to gain a foothold above it in order for the upward trend to continue on the last trading day of the week. The bears can not do anything. In order for them to have chances for a more or less tangible downward movement, they need to consolidate below the Kijun-sen line.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the most short-term plan and no signs of an incipient trend change. The latest Commitments of traders (COT) report clearly showed that the market's bullish mood persists. Professional market players continue to actively buy the European currency. In other words, we can conclude that the aggregate demand for the euro is growing, while the US dollar is declining. Since it is obvious that the trend is formed by large traders, especially those who enter the market for profit (the non-commercial category), their mood is an extremely important factor for ordinary traders. Therefore, given that the euro continued to grow this week, the next COT report, which will be released today, will be designed to answer the question whether the pressure of professional buyers on the currency pair has increased even more? If so, then we can expect the upward movement to continue in the medium term.

The fundamental backdrop for the EUR/USD pair was extremely upbeat on Thursday. First, it became known that the European Parliament could block the draft budget for 2021-2027, if appropriate adjustments are not made to it. Simply put, the European Parliament is not ready to approve the current version of the budget, considering that it is too small and lacks certain categories of investments. After it became known that US President Donald Trump was sending special forces to the cities of the country to suppress rallies and protests in the United States. First of all, this applies to the states and cities that the Democrats rule. The head of the European Parliament David Sassoli commented on the projects of the budget and the restoration fund: "We consider the agreement on the recovery plan satisfactory, and the multi-year financial plan needs some adjustments". According to Sassoli, a meeting will be held today, at which the presidents of the European Council and the European Commission will speak. The budget agreement needs a discussion between three European institutions: the Parliament, the European Commission and the leadership of the European Council," Sassoli stressed. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she did not regret the concessions at the summit (reducing the amount of grants for the most affected countries from 500 billion to 390) and spoke positively about the European Union, emphasizing the readiness of all countries to make compromises in difficult times of the pandemic. But the head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde believes that the deal could be better. "The agreement could have been better, but this is a very ambitious project," Lagarde said, noting that it was not worth reducing the amount of grants by increasing loans.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for July 24:

1) Buyers continue to dominate the market. Long positions remain relevant with the target of the resistance level 1.1688. Thus, it is either worthwhile to continue buying the pair with a Stop Loss below the Kijun-sen or at the discretion of traders, to open new longs with the target of 1.1688 after breaking the level of 1.1631. You can also open new longs on an upward signal of some fast indicator, like Heiken Ashi. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 60 points.

2) Bears are still resting and waiting for buyers to give them a chance to seize the initiative in the market. Sellers are still not strong enough to form a new downward trend. Thus, they can only wait until the price is consolidated at least below the Kijun-sen line. In this case, you can try to sell the pair while aiming for the lower line of the ascending channel. More serious prospects will open below the rising channel. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 80 points.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 24. Trump sends special forces to cities in the United States to suppress rallies. Scotland

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 84.2328

The British pound started to adjust again on Thursday, July 23. And in order to describe all the news of this day, you will need several articles. In the fundamental review of the EUR/USD pair, we have already said that the upward trend does not raise any questions at this time. The only question is, how long will it last based on the negative fundamental background from the US, which is currently available? Approximately the same question applies to the pound/dollar pair, since, from our point of view, the pound sterling has recently become more expensive not because everything is good in the UK, and Boris Johnson has already taken out a pen to sign trade agreements with the US and the European Union. Everything is exactly the opposite. Agreements with the European Union and the United States do not even smell, and the British economy will continue to experience serious problems because of Brexit, because of the absence of these agreements and because of the "coronavirus" crisis. Based on all of the above, we do not believe that the pound sterling (as well as the euro) is able to continue forming a strong upward trend at this time. The current levels reached by the euro and the dollar look like the maximum or limit in the current conditions. Once again, we are not saying that both upward trends will end tomorrow, but we are warning that they may do so in the near future and we need to be prepared for this.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to work to suppress rallies and protests in American cities. No sooner did we assume that the governors and mayors who belong to the Democratic Party are deliberately not in a hurry to suppress the riots, than Trump confirmed our hypothesis with his intentions and statements. According to the head of the White House, he is going to send significant federal forces to American cities as part of operation legend. Trump said that he has no choice. "In order to quell the mass riots that have caused a surge in crime across the country and, in particular, in its largest cities, we need decisive actions that the Democrats are not capable of," the head of the White House believes. Meanwhile, the very same Democrats who run states and cities say they will not tolerate interference by federal military forces and special forces, as was the case in Portland. "We are open to a real partnership, but we do not accept dictatorship," said Chicago Mayor Laurie Lightfoot. However, Trump can no longer be stopped. At a regular press conference, he said: "This uncontrolled increase in crime and violence leads to devastating consequences. Residents of the entire country have the right to security." If this is not the war we discussed in the EUR/USD article, then what is it? By the way, all democratic governors and mayors can also be understood. The rallies and protests themselves are mostly completely peaceful. And the increase in crime, which is not proven, but only voiced by Trump, who benefits from resorting to the services of special forces, can only be a consequence of these rallies. And peaceful rallies are not banned in the United States, so as long as the protesters do not carry out any illegal actions, there is nothing to arrest and disperse them for.

At the same time, Donald Trump said at a press conference that other consulates and embassies of China may be closed in the United States. The American President repeated the suspicions of some media that employees of the Chinese Consulate in Houston started a fire when they burned secret papers and documents. However, it is not clear what happened first, the closure of the Consulate or the fire? In any case, the official version of Washington is "to protect the intellectual property and personal data of Americans". However, we did not have to wait long for a response from China. Beijing, according to insider information, intends to close the American Consulate in Wuhan, as well as the Consulate in Chengdu. It is reported that the Consulate in Chengdu is strategically important for the United States, as it is the only one in the South-Western provinces. In general, it does not matter which Consulate will be closed. China will respond with mirror measures in any case.

But the UK continues to suffer losses from its decision to leave the EU. It is reported that investors are increasingly avoiding investments in the British economy. Shares in the British FTSE stock index lost 17% in 2020. Bank of America calculated in the latest survey that the UK is the most unattractive region for investors. Bank of America reports that the pound sterling because of Brexit has become similar to the currency of developing countries, and the fluctuations of the pound in the foreign exchange market called "neurotic". Also, as previously reported, in 2020, the UK's GDP may lose 14%, which is much more than in any European country, in the European Union as a whole, and in America shaken by four crises. This goes back to the question of whose economy still looks more stable and confident, and which currency should dominate the pound/dollar pair.

At the same time, relations between the UK and Scotland, which wants to remain in the European Union and leave the United Kingdom, continue to heat up. Prime Minister Johnson arrived in Scotland on a business visit and first Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon "met" him with a scathing tweet: "I welcome the Prime Minister to Scotland. One of the key arguments for independence is that Scotland can make its own decisions, rather than live in a future defined by politicians we didn't vote for and who lead us down a path we didn't choose. His presence emphasizes this." However, experts believe that Johnson arrived in the region just to reduce some of the tension over Scottish independence. "The only reason Boris Johnson came here is because he is in full-scale panic mode amid growing support for Scottish independence," said Scottish nationalist leader Keith Brown.

As a result, we can say that as long as the price is located below the moving average line,the upward trend remains in the medium term. Especially with the support of two of the channels linear regression is directed upwards. On Friday, July 24, the UK will publish retail sales for June, which may grow by 8% compared to May. Also on this day, it is planned to publish preliminary values of the index of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors of Britain, which is likely to exceed the level of 50.0. Similar business activity indices will be published in the US, also with forecasts above 50.0.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 102 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Friday, July 24, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2633 and 1.2837. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator downward will indicate a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2695

S2 – 1.2634

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2756

R2 – 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe is trying to continue moving up, but can not overcome the Murray level of "+1/8" - 1.2756. Thus, it is recommended to continue trading for an increase with the goals of 1.2817 and 1.2837 (the level of volatility), but for new longs, it is recommended to wait until the level of 1.2756 is overcome. Short positions can be considered after fixing the price below the moving average with the goals of 1.2573 and 1.2512.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 24. The euro currency is not interested in political battles between the European Commission

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 121.3540

From our point of view, the situation that has developed at this time for the EUR/USD currency pair is very ambiguous. On the one hand, everything is very simple and clear. There is a pronounced upward trend that is visible to the naked eye. It would seem that what else do traders need, who are always advised to trade according to the trend? Just buy the Euro currency and enjoy life, counting the profit every day. On the other hand, every trader should also be an analyst. At least a little. And here the question arises, and on the basis of what is the euro currency growing at all? If you look at the 24-hour timeframe, you can clearly see that after the markets calmed down after the March and April panic, the euro currency has already grown by 800 points, or 8 cents against the dollar. For the entire 2019 year, the euro currency fell by 2 cents against the US dollar with the undeniable superiority of the US economy. So what is the reason? At first glance, the reason lies in the European Union itself. Europe does not conflict with China, has successfully suppressed the spread of the "coronavirus" and now, by the decisions taken by the European Commission and at the EU summit, has prepared itself an excellent springboard for further recovery. On the other hand, the current state of the European economy is not good. And it is certainly no better than the state of the American one. Yes, the United States has a large public debt that continues to grow. But it was last year and the year before. The most interesting thing is that the euro currency continues to grow, without paying much attention to the fundamental background from Europe itself. That is, for example, the ECB meeting was held not so long ago. The meeting is absolutely passing, but nevertheless, there was no reaction. Although Christine Lagarde recently poured left and right pessimistic forecasts, according to which -8.7% of GDP in 2020 – this is still an optimistic scenario for the European Union. Okay. The next important event was the EU summit, where the budget for 2021-2027 and the fund for economic recovery after the pandemic were to be agreed. On Monday, no decision was made, although the summit was supposed to end on Saturday. But the markets again showed remarkable calm and did not start selling off the euro currency. After it became known that the EU countries managed to agree on a package of assistance and its distribution among the most needy countries – the euro also continued to grow. Yesterday morning it became known that the European Parliament does not fit the current version of the seven-year budget and it requires adjustments, threatening to block this project altogether – the euro still continued to grow. Naturally, when we say that the euro is constantly growing, we do not mean that there has not been a single correction or pullback during all this time, we are talking about a general upward trend that does not stop. And this trend indicates that there is a more important, more permanent fundamental background, which forces market participants to trade for an increase in the EUR/USD pair almost every day. And in our humble opinion, this background comes from overseas. And all the seemingly positive background from the European Union only complements the negative coming from the US and pushing the pair up.

We have repeatedly stated that the United States is now facing four types of crisis, and we have repeatedly listed the problems that the country has already faced and may face. We also believe that there is a war going on in America at this time. Not in the literal sense of the word, but this is war. "The war against Donald Trump" or "the war for the US presidency". We like the first wording better, since Joe Biden takes almost no part in the fighting. And during the "coronavirus epidemic", when the government, political forces and the president must show their unity, since human lives, the future of the country and the nation are at stake, all participants in the fighting continue to fight for power. In short, without going into details, the situation looks like this. Democrats are ready to do anything to remove Trump from the position of President, not to allow him to be re-elected. They are ready to initiate a new impeachment, to do nothing in the United States and cities that they control, where rallies and protests are held that prevent Trump from restoring his political ratings, they are ready to criticize the US President for "coronavirus", for exceeding power, for violating democratic principles, for a trade war with China. But Donald Trump himself is no better. He is even more critical of the Democrats, constantly makes contradictory statements about the "coronavirus" that can confuse anyone, and all his actions show that the main thing for him is to be re-elected in November, and not to stop the epidemic and save the lives of the American population. And outside the United States at any time, the current government can be attacked by China, which also does not like Donald Trump for quite objective reasons. As a result, we have continuous rallies and protests in at least 140 cities of the country, which are not always suppressed. We have 60-70 thousand new cases every day. We have a major political crisis. And all this against the background of the economic crisis caused by the same "coronavirus" and "lockdown". And the main question here is, how long are market participants ready to get rid of the US currency based on the above factors? In other words, what values can the euro grow to if the situation in the US remains the same and does not continue to deteriorate? We believe that if the euro has not yet fully exhausted its potential, it is approaching it. The US dollar has become more expensive since the beginning of 2018 and has grown by 19 cents during this time, despite the fact that its economy was much stronger than the European one. Now, in just 2 months, the euro currency has grown by 8 cents due to the crisis in the US, however, it can not be said that the US economy has become weaker than the European one. And for investors and traders, the question of the state of the economy is the most important one. Based on all of the above, we recommend that traders continue to trade on the trend, but do not expect the strong growth of the euro currency to continue. Technical indicators clearly show that the trend is not yet complete. Therefore, long positions remain relevant. However, you do not need to wait for the euro around the levels of $ 1.20 - $ 1.25$. This is unlikely to happen in the coming months.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 24 is 86 points and is still characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1516 and 1.1688. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a turn of a downward correction within the framework of an upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1597

S2 – 1.1475

S3 – 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1719

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to strengthen its upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in purchases of the euro currency with the goals of 1.1688 and 1.1719, until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward (1-2 bars of blue color). It is recommended to open sell orders no earlier than when the pair is fixed below the moving average line with the first targets of 1.1353 and 1.1230.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Dollar tries to pull the blanket over itself

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Over the past several days, the USD index has been declining during trading in New York, and it could continue to fall if US asset managers continue to sell the national currency during the domestic sessions, says Jeff Kendrick of Standard Chartered.

"If this is the beginning of a new dollar selling trend during trading hours in the US, it could be a significant event that will signal that we are entering the middle of the dollar smile," he said.

According to the "dollar smile" theory, the US currency tends to strengthen in times of crisis, when there is a shift from risk to safety, weakens when the global economy recovers, and strengthens again when the US economy is growing faster than the rest of the world.

Uncertainty about the prospects for the US economy against the backdrop of the imminent end of the program of additional payments to unemployment benefits forced investors to abandon purchases of the dollar.

At the moment, there have been no discussions regarding a possible extension of the program. Instead, the White House is focusing on a new stimulus package that would be somewhat complementary to the current program. The pressure on the national government is expected to increase after the end of benefits surcharges, as it will be required to make a new deal that will maintain the pace of economic recovery. As a result, news from this front will become the main driver of the USD exchange rate.

In the meantime, the greenback is trying to move away from the minimum multi-month levels against other major currencies amid increasing tensions between Washington and Beijing.

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The United States gave China time until Friday to close its consulate in Houston. There is speculation that the consulate was used for espionage. The Chinese authorities said they could close the US consulate in Wuhan in response. This only worsened the already strained relations between the countries.

The United States and China have previously been in a state of conflict over issues such as coronavirus, Huawei, Hong Kong, etc. However, investors are comforted by the fact that the parties continue to adhere to the trade agreement.

However, will this state of affairs continue? When the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018 and 2019, stock markets plummeted briefly as China retaliated. Will this repeat itself this time? If equity markets decline, the dollar will have the opportunity to continue to rise.

The EUR/USD pair decided to take a breath after a rapid rally to 21-month highs.

"The pair touched the round 1.16 mark, but fell back. Only a clear breakdown of this barrier will allow the bulls to take the course to the next important level of 1.1635. It is assumed that the current positive mood will continue as long as the strong support at 1.1465 remains unbroken," UOB strategists said.

As for the long-term prospects, experts at Goldman Sachs expect that in the next 12 months, the euro will grow by almost 10% against the US dollar.

"The approval of the EU economic recovery fund was an important milestone for the euro," they said.

Meanwhile, Bank of America experts believe that in the coming months, the euro is likely to lose all its recent growth against the US dollar, a safe haven asset, due to a disappointing global economic recovery.

"We expect a weak recovery in the global economy after its reopening and do not expect full normalization while the virus is a threat. The EU coronavirus recovery fund is a positive step, but it is far from making a difference," BofA analysts said. According to the Bank's forecast, the EUR/USD pair will be trading at 1.08 by the end of the year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com