Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for February 18

Dear colleagues.

The currency pair Euro / Dollar price forms the initial conditions for the top of February 15 and we expect their development after the breakdown of 1.1333. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we follow the formation of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle of February 14 and the level of 1.2973 is the key resistance. The currency pair Dollar / Franc is following the formation of the downward structure of February 13 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 1.0022. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in correction from the upward structure and the upward movement can continue after the breakdown of 110.84. For the currency pair of Euro / Yen, the price issued a local upward structure of February 15 and the level of 124.69 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of February 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 143.43.

Forecast for February 18:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1423, 1.1406, 1.1379, 1.1360, 1.1333, 1.1305, 1.1287, 1.1268 and 1.1232. We follow the formation of the initial conditions for the top of February 15. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1333. In this case, the goal is 1.1360 and in the area of 1.1360 - 1.1379 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.1379 should be accompanied by a pronounced move towards the potential target of 1.1406, an in the area of 1.1406 - 1.1423 is the price consolidation, and also from here, we expect a withdrawal into a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1305 - 1.1287 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 1.1268 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have a downward trend. In this case, the goal is 1.1232.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1333 Take profit: 1.1360

Buy 1.1362 Take profit: 1.1377

Sell: 1.1305 Take profit: 1.1288

Sell: 1.1286 Take profit: 1.1268

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3119, 1.3064, 1.3026, 1.2973, 1.2954, 1.2904, 1.2877 and 1.2839. The price forms the potential initial conditions for the top of February 14 and the development of which is expected after the price passes the range of 1.2954 - 1.2973. In this case, the goal is 1.3026 and in the area of 1.3026 - 1.3064 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3119, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.2904 - 1.2877 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.2839.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of February 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2973 Take profit: 1.3026

Buy: 1.3028 Take profit: 1.3062

Sell: 1.2904 Take profit: 1.2880

Sell: 1.2875 Take profit: 1.2840

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0075, 1.0055, 1.0042, 1.0022, 1.0001, 0.9987, 0.9967 and 0.9956. The price forms the downward structure of February 13. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.0022. In this case, the goal is 1.0001 and in the area of 1.0001 - 0.9987 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.9987 should be accompanied by a pronounced move to the level of 0.9967. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.9956, near which we expect consolidation.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.0042 - 1.0055 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.0075 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of February 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0042 Take profit: 1.0055

Buy: 1.0057 Take profit: 1.0075

Sell: 1.0020 Take profit: 1.0001

Sell: 1.0000 Take profit: 0.9988

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.74, 111.32, 111.08, 110.84, 110.42, 110.25 and 109.97. The price is in deep correction from the rising structure on January 31. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 110.84. In this case, the first target is 111.08. The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 111.08 - 111.32 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 111.74, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The range of 110.42 - 110.25 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 109.97.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 31, a deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.84 Take profit: 111.08

Buy: 111.10 Take profit: 111.30

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 110.25 Take profit: 110.00

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3341, 1.3297, 1.3272, 1.3251, 1.3217, 1.3193, 1.3178, 1.3134 and 1.3104. The price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of February 13, for which a breakdown of level 1.3217 is necessary. In this case, the first target is 1.3193 and the price passage of the range of 1.3193 - 1.3178 must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 1.3134. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3104, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3251 - 1.3272 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 1.3297. This level is a key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward trend on the H1 scale.

The main trend is the upward structure of February 13, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3251 Take profit: 1.3270

Buy: 1.3274 Take profit: 1.3295

Sell: 1.3215 Take profit: 1.3195

Sell: 1.3176 Take profit: 1.3136

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7249, 0.7219, 0.7197, 0.7168, 0.7132, 0.7113 and 0.7093. We are following the development of the ascending cycle of February 11. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7168. In this case, the target is 0.7197 and in the area of 0.7197 - 0.7291 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7249, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7132 - 0.7113 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 0.7093 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7168 Take profit: 0.7197

Buy: 0.7199 Take profit: 0.7219

Sell: 0.7132 Take profit: 0.7115

Sell: 0.7111 Take profit: 0.7095

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.08, 125.85, 125.50, 125.35, 125.04, 124.88 and 124.69. The price has issued local initial conditions for the top of February 15. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 125.35 - 125.50 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 125.85. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 126.08, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 125.04 - 124.88 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 124.69 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.35 Take profit: 125.50

Buy: 125.52 Take profit: 125.85

Sell: 125.04 Take profit: 124.88

Sell: 124.86 Take profit: 124.70

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 144.58, 144.13, 143.43, 143.17, 142.61, 142.33 and 141.91. We are following the formation of the ascending structure of February 15. We expect a short-term upward movement in the area of 143.17 - 143.43 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 144.13. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 144.58, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 142.61 - 142.33 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 141.91 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.45 Take profit: 144.10

Buy: 144.15 Take profit: 144.55

Sell: 142.61 Take profit: 142.35

Sell: 142.30 Take profit: 141.94

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Oil prices have reached three-month highs, is it worth counting on continued growth?

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Today, black gold has been trading near maximum values since the end of November 2018 amid a reduction in oil production by OPEC member countries and optimistic expectations regarding the resolution of trade disputes between the United States and the Middle Kingdom.

Over the past week, the cost of raw materials of Brent brand increased by almost 6.7% and WTI - by 5.4%.

Should we expect a further increase in oil prices?

"The decline in the production of black gold by OPEC and non-cartel countries supports the oil rally, but the risks of a global recession are largely underestimated, so the growth of quotations can be replaced by their decline," Saxo Bank experts say.

According to Capital Economics experts, the likelihood that the rally will continue until the end of the year is low. They expect that the cost of raw materials of the Brent variety can sink to the level of $ 50 per barrel.

Analysts at Bank of America also see growing risks of lower oil prices in the medium term.

"It is assumed that in the coming months, black gold may fall in price due to increased production in the United States and falling global demand, but in the long-term horizon, it will be traded near current levels," representatives of the financial institute noted.

"The fact is that in addition to the "bearish" factors, there are potential "bullish". It is possible that participants in the OPEC + transaction may sacrifice market share for higher prices and further reduce the production of raw materials. In addition, quotes can be supported by lower capital spending, as well as geopolitics and inflation," they added.

According to their estimates, this year the cost of Brent crude oil averages $ 70 per barrel.

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Trump and EUR: Trump is preparing to impose a state of emergency in the United States. The demand for the euro may increase

On Friday evening, news emerged that US President Donald Trump was imposing a state of emergency since the US Congress was unable to agree on the allocation of the necessary funds for the construction of the wall. The White House said that the introduction of a state of emergency would allow the use of funds intended for other items of expenditure. A total of $ 8 billion is planned to be spent on the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico.

The American president said on Friday that he was going to impose a state of emergency to solve security problems at the border, and soon all the documents needed for that would be prepared. Trump noted that the construction of the wall is a key point for national security, and is ready to be sued because of the decision to declare a state of emergency.

As for the trade talks that took place last week, the US president announced good results, which leaves hope for the preservation of good relations between the US and China. Trump expects the second summit with the DPRK leader to be as successful as the first.

The US dollar, which showed growth in the first half of the day against the euro and a number of other world currencies, then fell sharply again after the release of weak fundamental data indicating a slowdown in US economic growth.

According to the report, industrial production in the United States in January 2019 declined sharply. This happened because of a serious decline in the production of cars.

According to the US Federal Reserve, industrial production fell by 0.6% in January compared with December 2018. Economists had expected industrial production to grow by 0.1%. Compared with January 2018, industrial production grew by 3.8%.

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Manufacturing production in January fell by 0.9%, while production in the mining sector grew by only 0.1%. Capacity utilization in January fell to 78.2%. Current economic data indicates that the US economy is strong enough, but shows a slight decline.

A good report on the growth of American consumer optimism came to the aid of the US dollar in the afternoon. The increase mainly occurred after the completion of the suspension of the US government, as well as against the backdrop of the fact that the Federal Reserve took a pause in the process of raising interest rates.

According to leading data from the University of Michigan, the consumer sentiment index in February 2019 was 95.5 points versus 91.2 points in January.

Import prices in the US declined in January, indicating a slowdown in inflation.

As stated in the report of the US Department of Labor, import prices in January 2019 fell by 0.5% compared with December, while economists had expected a fall in prices compared to December of 0.3%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, prices fell by 1.7%.

On Friday, a report was also released, which testified to business growth in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. According to the data, the Fed-New York manufacturing index rose to 8.8 points in February against 3.9 points in January. Economists had expected the February index to be 7 points.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, euro buyers can "exhale". Trade has moved above the level of 1.1280, and demand for the euro may continue in the near future. The main task will be fixing above the maximum of 1.1325, which will strengthen the demand for risky assets and lead the trading instrument to last week's highs of 1.1360 and 1.1400.

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Eurozone is preparing for the worst

The report of the US Department of Commerce, which explicitly states that car imports pose a threat to national security, shifts the focus from trade negotiations in Beijing to problems in the eurozone, as it dramatically increases the chances of introducing protective duties on European cars.

Investigation on this issue was initiated by Trump back in May last year, and the findings present a serious problem for foreign manufacturers. If Trump decides to take advantage of the findings and tries to impose a 25% duty on European automakers, the EU's response will not take long to wait, which, on the one hand, will lead to a fall in the euro, on the other, will mean another step in isolating the United States from the rest of the world.

In the next 24 hours, we should expect White House comments on this issue and, as a result, an increase in volatility, since the chosen scenario of reaction to the report will have serious consequences for the dollar.

On Wednesday, the minutes of the January Fed meeting will be published, which will be important in terms of the Fed's plans to further reduce the balance.

EURUSD

On Friday, ECB board member Benoit Coeure gave an extensive commentary on the economic prospects of the eurozone. The keynote at Coeure was the recognition of a stronger and wider slowdown than the ECB had expected, and that the regulator intends to consider the issue of a new round of TLTRO. According to him, he is "not enthusiastic about the rate increase, then to reduce them again", which should be interpreted by the markets quite unequivocally - the policy of the ECB will not be aimed at strengthening the euro.

It was difficult to expect any other assessment from the representative of the ECB if we proceed from the dynamics of market indicators. On Thursday, the February PMI indices will be published, in January, they indicated not even weak growth, but stagnation and the trend are not improving. In any case, we already know about a further decrease in the volume of new orders.

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Since Monday is a holiday in the USA, the market dynamics will most likely be low. Growth attempts will be blocked with a high probability in the resistance area of 1.1340, the support will be Friday at least 1.1232. Trade will be conducted in the side range with some aggression towards its lower border.

GBPUSD

Retail sales in the UK significantly exceeded forecasts in January, which was a big surprise for experts - growth was 1% with a forecast of 0.2%, year-on-year growth of 4.2% with a forecast of 3.4%. Part of the growth is due to numerous discounts, partly due to the weak results of December. In any case, the pound received little support against the background of continuing uncertainty about Brexit.

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The intrigue regarding the future stay of the UK in the EU gets a long-awaited development. After the next failure of Theresa May in parliament during the voting on the border with Ireland, when she failed to obtain the necessary powers to resolve this issue in negotiations with the EU, it became clear that the possibilities of the May's Cabinet were close to exhaustion. Despite the failure, May continues to insist on a legally binding document on participation in the Customs Union with a clear timeframe, the EU may already be beginning to lean towards a different strategy.

The EU leadership intends to hold talks with Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, who takes a different position and offers permanent British participation in the Customs Union. If the indicated negotiations allow to work out a unified position, then May's Cabinet will be doomed - it will be much easier for European politicians to wait for May's resignation, early parliamentary elections and the subsequent conclusion of an agreement with the Cabinet, which will be headed by Corbyn, which will completely solve the Brexit problem.

The case seems to be developing in just such a scenario since rumors that part of May's cabinet is ready to resign are becoming more and more insistent if no agreement is reached with the EU before February 27 and ratification is not held.

The pound in the current environment can not determine the direction. May's confident victory could have given him a strong bullish impulse, but it is no longer clear which of the scenarios would be more pragmatic in terms of benefits for the British economy. Deciding on the direction will help publication on Tuesday of the report on the labor market, which will give some understanding of inflationary perspectives, while the most likely is the trade in the side range with some margin in favor of growth. The nearest resistance is 1.2958, then 1.2995, but in the absence of news, this goal is unlikely to be achieved.

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February 18, 2019: EUR/USD is demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the lower limit of its channel.

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

The EUR/USD pair is demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270) with early signs of bearish reversal probability.

A bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285) (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel).Stop Loss to be located below 1.1225 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for February 18. New bearish divergence will push the pair down again?

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart after the formation of the bullish divergence at the MACD indicator made a reversal in favor of the euro and began the process of growth in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. On February 18, a bearish divergence near the CCI indicator is brewing. The education will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of a fall in the direction of the correctional level of 0.0% - 1.1218. Hanging quotes from the Fibo level of 23.6% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the fall of the pair.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair reverted to the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing the pair under this level will work in favor of the US dollar and a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.0941. Regular quotes from this level will allow us to count on a turn in favor of the EU currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be made now with the goal of 1.1358, as the pair completed the closure above the level of 1.1269 (with the formation of bullish divergence), and the Stop Loss order below the level of 1.1269, and keep open purchases until the formation of the bearish divergence.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1219 if the pair perform a rebound from the Fibo level of 23.6% or in case of a bearish divergence, and a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 18. The pound is trying to maintain the upward momentum

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers seem to be hooked on the resistance of 1.2924, and as long as trading will be conducted above this range, you can count on new highs around 1.2986 and 1.3047. A formation of a false breakdown in the afternoon will be a good signal for new purchases. With the scenario of recovery below the support of 1.2924, long positions in the pound can be considered on a rebound from 1.2868 low.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Only a return below the support level of 1.2924 can put pressure on the pound, which will lead to a larger sale to the area of minimum 1.2868, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of continued GBP/USD growth in the second half of the day or news on Brexit, new short positions can be considered after updating the highs of 1.2986 and 1.3047.

More in the video forecast for February 18

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2945 will lead to a new increase in the pound. The lower limit in the 1.2885 area will limit the fall, where you can count on long positions.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

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Indian oil signed the first contract for the purchase of American oil for $ 1.5 billion

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the largest oil and gas corporation in India, signed the first annual contract for the purchase of oil from the United States worth $1.5 billion from the United States worth $ 1.5 billion, according to the chairman of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Sanjiva Singh. The daily volume of oil supplies amounted to 60,000 barrels.

The contract will begin in April and end in March 2020. In addition to signing the contract, the company agreed on conditions for importing up to 3 million metric tons of oil from the United States as part of a strategy to diversify oil suppliers.

Earlier, IOC acquired hydrocarbons from the United States on the spot markets and also concluded a short-term deal to buy 6 million barrels of US oil from November 2018 to January 2019.

Thanks to a new deal, Indian Oil Corporation will be able to reduce its dependence on OPEC, as well as strengthen trade relations between India and the United States.

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 18. The demand for euro remains in the absence of important data

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The buyers managed in the first half of the day with the task of fixing above the resistance of 1.1323, which I paid attention. While trading will be conducted above this range, the demand for the euro will remain that will lead to an update of the highs around 1.1359 and 1.1394, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a return below the support level of 1.1323, it is best to return to long positions immediately to a rebound from the 1.1282 low.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears need to return under the support level of 1.1323, which will allow the sales of the euro to resume to the support area of 1.1282, where I recommend taking profits. Today, the absence of important fundamental statistics in the second half of the day and a low trading volume can save demand for the euro. In this scenario, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1359.

More in the video forecast for February 18

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50- medium moving, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the euro in the short term.

Bollinger bands

Growth is limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1335. Its breakthrough will lead to a new rising wave in the euro. A downward correction will be limited by the average boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1305.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP / USD. 18th of February. The trading system. "Regression Channels". May is going to Brussels again

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 107.8597

The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, February 18, continues the upward movement that started on Friday and has overcome the moving average. Meanwhile, the confrontation between the British Parliament and Theresa May continues. This week, the Prime Minister of Great Britain will again go to Brussels to discuss the conditions of Brexit with all EU leaders once again. We believe that this May trip will also end in nothing. May herself understands this, but she really needs to create the maximum appearance of her efforts to negotiate with Brussels. In this case, she will be able to shift the responsibility for Brexit to the parliamentarians, based on the fact that she tried her best to get new concessions for the country from the EU. Theresa May has already managed to speak in Parliament once again and called on members of her party to unite and sacrifice their own preferences for a higher goal - the future of the country. She called for support of her agreement on withdrawal from the EU, hinting that if the parliament rejects this document again, that Brexit can stop completely. In general, nobody expected anything else from Theresa May. It is clear that Ms. May will continue to push her Brexit plan without any major changes, since the European Union is not going to take these changes. In the meantime, less and less remains, and it is possible that the date of the "divorce" will have to be postponed to a later date.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2878

S2 - 1.2848

S3 - 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2909

R2 - 1.2939

R3 - 1.2970

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD has fixed above the MA, therefore the trend in the instrument temporarily changed to ascending. Now, it is recommended to consider long positions with targets of 1.2939 and 1.2970.

Short positions will again become relevant after the price is fixed back below the moving average line. The targets, in this case, will be Murray levels of 1.2848 and 1.2817.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. 18th of February. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Trump continues to "beat out" money for the construction

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: 64.6385

The last trading day of last week ended with an unexpected strengthening of the European currency. From the negative data of the second half of Friday, we can note only the unexpectedly failed report on industrial production in the United States. This indicator lost 0.6% in January against the forecast of + 0.1%. It also appeared that Donald Trump is going to introduce a state of emergency on the border with Mexico in order to circumvent Congress in the matter of financing the construction of the wall. According to Democrats, Trump is abusing power, but, knowing Trump, he is unlikely to stop halfway in this matter. According to the leader of the United States, most of the drug smuggling from Mexico goes right through unprotected parts of the border. Money for this project will have to come from the military budget, however, according to Trump, the required amount will not affect the funding of various military programs. Despite the rather interesting nature of these events, it is unlikely that they provoked the fall of the US dollar. Most likely, the fall of the US currency was due at least to technical factors. At the moment, the pair has worked a moving average line, but could not consolidate above it. A rebound in the price from the MA can trigger a resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has adjusted to the moving average. The rebound in the prices from the MA and the turn of the indicator Heikin Ashi down will signal the resumption of the downward movement and the short positions with targets in the area of 1.1250 - 1.1230 will become relevant.

Buy orders are recommended to be considered no earlier than the Bulls overcome the moving average line with the first target of 1.1353. To date, neither in the States nor in the European Union are there any important macroeconomic reports planned.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review for the pair GBP / USD from February 18 to 23, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.2993, the rolling level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle (Monday is up) and the presence of the second upper shadow (Friday is down).

This week, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.2993, the rolling level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of the pair EUR / USD from February 18 to 23, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

When moving down, the first lower target of 1.1235 is the support line (blue bold line). The probability of breaking through the support line is small.

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - down.

Conclusion on a comprehensive analysis - downward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have a downward trend with the absence of the first upper shadow from the weekly black candle (Monday - down) and the absence of the second lower shadow (Friday - down).

When moving down, the first lower target of 1.1235 is the support line (blue bold line).

Then maybe move up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for February 18. The pound is still prone to fall

4h

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The GBP / USD pair on a 4-hour chart fixed above the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2869 after the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. As a result, on February 18, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2969. Also today, a bearish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator. Its formation will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of a fall in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.2765.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair rebounded from the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2799, started to grow and completed the closing above the Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2878. Thus, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2943. On the current chart, a bearish divergence is brewing at the MACD indicator, which allows you to count on a turn in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4%.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 15, 2019, and January 25, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2943 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 61.8%, as the pair completed the close above 1.2878 (hourly chart) and keep them open until a bearish divergence is formed on any chart.

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2799 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 50.0% (or a divergence peak) if the pair bounce off at 1.2943 (hourly chart) or a bearish divergence is formed on any chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of USD / CHF for February 18

Large TF:

The main movement of the franc since February last year looks at the "north" of the chart. A preliminary calculation allows you to wait for at least 3 lifting figures until the first serious stop. The structure is traced in the wave (A + B + C).

Small TF:

In the wave that began on September 21, the first 2 parts are fully formed and the final part (C) is formed. To complete the preparation of the price, you need to complete an intermediate pullback down.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, the price of the pair will be a flat mood. Estimated support shows the expected reversal zone. This guide can be used by traders to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 1.0090 / 1.0140

Support areas:

- 0.9990 / 0.9940

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of USD / JPY for February 18

Large TF:

A bullish wave has been developing on the weekly scale of the Japanese yen chart since March last year, the structure of which completed the first 2 parts.

Small TF:

The ascending segment, which began on January 3, gave rise to the final part in a larger wave structure. The wave develops in pulse type, with minimal recoils. Before further rise, the price is to complete a rollback down.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The scope of the previous price growth is estimated at least 3 price patterns. Next week, an "outset" is expected. For bull traders, the upcoming price rollback will provide a good opportunity to strengthen their purchases or enter the market on the most favorable terms.

Resistance zones:

- 110.90 / 108.80

Support areas:

- 109.80 / 109.30

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD pair on February 18. The pound still shows signs of life

Wave counting analysis:

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On February 15, the GBP/USD pair gained about 80 bp. However, if the current wave counting is correct, the pair proceeded to build a downward third wave or c and forms the first two internal waves. There is also a possibility that the last two increases on one decline, which is a nonstandard 2nd wave. Yet, in this case, a descending third wave is expected. Protective orders can be placed just above this level. On the subject of Brexit, nothing new can be said now. Theresa May is going for a to a new voyage across Europe with the aim of new negotiations on the conditions for leaving the European Union.

Purchases targets:

1.3033 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a new downward wave. Thus, now I recommend selling again the instrument with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2826 and 1.2734, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. It is advisable to place protective orders above 1.2917.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of EUR / USD for February 18

Large TF:

In the bear trend that dominates the market since November last year, an upward wave structure has been formed. A preliminary calculation of the potential puts it in place of the correction.

Small TF:

Since January 10, the downward motion vector dominates on the chart. The structure forms a distinct zigzag (A + B + C). The price is approaching the potential reversal zone. Before the final pull-down, a rollback is possible.

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Forecast and recommendations:

As for the flat price range, preparations for a price leap upwards are completed. Given the corrective nature of growth, it is premature to make investments. When buying, it is recommended to reduce the lot size.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1350 / 1.1400

Support areas:

- 1.1210 / 1.1160

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis. Overview of #USDX (US dollar index) for February 18

Large TF:

The vector of the main trend direction from February last year looks up. The structure of the wave formed the first 2 parts (A + B). Since September, the final part of the wave (C) takes the form of a zigzag.

Small TF:

The incomplete index wave is ascending, starting from January 10th. It formed a sequence (A + B + C). In the framework of the latter part, a downward pullback is expected in the coming days.

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Forecast and recommendations:

This week, the character of the movement of the US dollar is expected to be mainly flat. Before another attempt to break up, some weakening of the position is likely. Strengthening the rates of national currencies in the major pairs at this time will allow traders "bears" to enter the market from more favorable positions.

Resistance zones:

- 97.45 / 97.65

Support areas:

- 96.45 / 96.25

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the European session on February 19. The pound may continue to grow but under certain conditions

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Good fundamental data on Friday led to the formation of an upward correction in the pound, which can continue today. This requires a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2924, which will give a new impetus to growth in the area of highs at 1.2986 and 1.3047, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a downward correction, which can be observed in the first half today, long positions in the GBP/USD pair can return to the false breakdown from the support of 1.2868, where the moving averages are concentrated. Another option is to look for a rebound from the minimum of 1.2812, where the lower limit of the ascending channel passes.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2924 will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound in order to reduce and test support 1.2868, where I recommend to take profits. However, the main goal of sellers will at least be at 1.2812, but even testing this area will not lead to the resumption of the downward trend. This requires an update in the level of 1.2769. In case of further growth of the GBP/USD pair, you can consider short positions on the rebound from the maximum of 1.2986.

Found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates the formation of an upward correction.

Bollinger bands

Today, the Pound growth may limit the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2950. In case of correction, you can purchase the pair on a rebound from the lower border in the area of 1.2815.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the European session on February 18. Weak US statistics hit the dollar

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro rose expectedly after another weak report on the US economy on Friday. At the moment, buyers can retain an upward correction but on condition that they manage to break through and gain a foothold above resistance 1.1323, which will lead to larger growth in the levels of 1.1359 and 1.1394, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of EUR/USD decline in the first half of the day against the background of the absence of important statistics, you can consider long positions at a false breakdown from the middle of the 1.1282 channel or buy a rebound from the lower border of 1.1235, which will return the pair to the downward trend.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bear is required to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1323, which will lead to a downward correction to the support area of 1.1282, where I recommend taking profits since the bulls will try to resume their purchases from this level. In the absence of demand in the area of 1.1282, a breakthrough at this range will open a direct path to the minimum around 1.1235. In a scenario of further upward correction, long positions can return today after the testing the maximum of 1.1359 or rebound from 1.1394.

Found in the video review.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of an upward correction. A moving average test will be an additional signal to buy euros.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1330 will be a signal to buy. In the event of a decline in the euro, the average border in the region of 1.1290 and the lower boundary in the area of 1.1250 will act as a support.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD pair on February 18, 2019

EUR / USD pair

As expected, US President Trump signed the budget for the current year on Friday and at the same time, he declared a state of emergency due to illegal migration. This even allows him to raise funding for the wall with Mexico to $8 billion. But there was also unexpected news, the US industrial production collapsed by 0.6% in January with the forecast of + 0.1%. Moreover, production capacity utilization decreased from 78.8% to 78.2%. Consequently, the news caused the euro to return to the opening day after it lost 60 points.

On the four-hour chart, a triple convergence has already formed with the Marlin indicator. The potential growth expands even more with the current first growth target at the resistance of the nested line in the price channel near the 1.1358 mark on the daily chart. Fixation of the price above the line will allow continuous growth to the Fibonacci correction level of 61.8% from the last line of decline in the period of January 31 to February 15 at 1.1407.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for February 18, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3228. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3228, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3228, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CAD pair to trade between 1.3228 and 1.3328. So, the support stands at 1.3228, while daily resistance is found at 1.3328. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3228. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3228 with the first target at the level of 1.3328; and continue towards 1.3295. However, if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3328 today, the market will decline further to 1.3228-1.3200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 18, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.3210 and 1.2913 in the long term. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3210 to 1.2913 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3010 and 1.2734. Overall, we still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3010. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2913, the market will decline further to 1.2734 (daily support 1). Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2734 to test it again. The level of 1.2704 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3210, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 18, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

On Monday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target 1.1343 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target 1.1343 is the upper fractal. After lunch, the market will be narrow (US holiday).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 18. Quiet monday

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Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, February 15, the bidding ended for the pair EUR / USD by a fall of 60 basis points with the same boost. Therefore, at the end of the day, the pair did not lose a single bp. At the same time, the estimated wave 3 no longer looks as perfect as it has been for days, but it still retains the probability of beginning to build a new upward wave, possibly the fourth within the triangle. This might be perhaps the first wave of the new triple up. One way or another, the option of building an upward wave remains the most attractive for the tool. Today, President's Day is celebrated in America. Meanwhile, there's no strong news in Europe.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 127.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1356 - 23.6% Fibonacci

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair allegedly completed the construction of the downward wave 3. Thus, now I recommend buying with targets located near the estimated level of 1.1444, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the levels of 127.2% and 0.0% Fibonacci will lead to a further decrease in the instrument.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 18, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2820-1.2800 where (50% Fibonacci level) as well as a previous prominent top are located (Highlighted in BLUE) where price action should be watched cautiously.

Lack of bullish demand has been demonstrated on the recent few daily candlesticks until Friday when significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around Fibonacci 50% level (bullish engulfing daily candlestick)

For the bullish side to regain dominance, bullish breakout above 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) should be re-established early.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.2830 (Fibo 50%level) enhances a further decline towards the price zone of 1.2690-1.2700 where significant bullish demand will probably be demonstrated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on February 18, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price will continue to move up. The first upper target of 1.2943 is the recoil level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

: The price will continue to move up on Monday. The first upper target of 1.2943 is the recoil level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 02/18/2019

Main motives for the market:

The shutdown in the US has been overcome, now there will be a long process of Democrats against Trump because of his imposition of the state of emergency (Trump did it to finance the wall on the border with Mexico).

Brexit: The question has been postponed so far until February 27 - the dates of the vote in Parliament. Opponents of May expect that the agreement with the EU will again fail in Parliament - and this will allow Brexit to be postponed for a long time.

According to the news - we are waiting for Wednesday's report on orders for durable goods in the United States.

We expect the start of a large trend for the euro in the near future.

We are ready to buy euros from 1.1345.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1230.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones EURUSD 02/18/19

Friday's upward movement, it is not yet a pulse, although it looks like it. The defining control zone of the NKZ 1/2 1.1335-1.1326 still acts as resistance. This is in favor of continuing the downward movement and updating the monthly low. The most favorable prices for selling the instrument are within the specified zone. It is important to note the emergence of demand at the previous week's low. This suggests the formation of a local zone of accumulation, where both supply and demand are clearly expressed.

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Even if the downward movement will no longer be of an impulsive nature, work from the upper bound of the flat will remain the most attractive and profitable in terms of the risk-to-profit ratio. It is necessary to use such favorable prices for selling when forming a pattern.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair can break through and consolidate above the level of 1.1335 in one of the closest US sessions. Today is a holiday in the United States, so it makes no sense to focus on the day's closing of trading. Tomorrow's movement will be decisive for the downward mid-term impulse. Selling in today's European session in the event of a false breakdown of the control zone will be the best trading solution.

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Day short - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD technical analysis for 18/02/2019

EUR/USD technical analysis for 18/02/2019:

The bounce was not very impressive, the price still under the resistnace

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD market has bounced from the level of 1.1234 after the pin Bar candle was made and went straight up to the key technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.1321 - 1.1341. The last candlestick looks like a Doji, so this would be a first indication of the possibility of the uptrend change to the downtrend. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1300, but it might be easily broken by bears. The momentum is still close to the neutral level, which is again not a very good indication of the strength of the bullish side of the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1452

WR2 - 1.1395

WR1 - 1.1341

Weekly Pivot - 1.1286

WS1 - 1.1238

WS2 - 1.1177

WS3 - 1.1130

Trading recommendations:

All of the buy orders that were bought during last week in the buyback zone are now closed with profit at the level of 1.1321. If you still have any open by orders, you should close them as close as possible to the level of 1.1321 and try to open a short-term sell trade with a tight protective stop-loss order. Target is seen at the level of 1.1300 and 1.1268.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance at 78.24 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 78.59 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its resistance at 98% where a corresponding reversal is anticipated.

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 79.24. Stop loss at 79.81. Take profit at 78.59.

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GBP/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

GBP/USD is approaching its resistance at 1.3004 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.2893 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is nearing its resistance at 97% where a corresponding reversal is anticipated.

GBP/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.3004. Stop loss at 1.3060. Take profit at 1.2893.

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GBP / USD. May tries again to "conquer" Brussels

The pound closed the trading week with significant growth, reaching the border of the 29th figure. The British currency reacted to the rumors that London and Brussels will resume dialogue on the fate of the Brexit deal. And although all previous attempts to find a compromise ended in failure, this news still affected the GBP / USD bulls.

During the weekend, the rumors were confirmed: This week, Theresa May will meet not only the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, , but also with the leaders of all EU member of different countries. The meetings will be attended by the main negotiators of the EU and the UK, Michel Barnier and Stephen Barclay. Before going to Brussels, May sent a letter to the members of the Conservative Party, in which she promised to seek changes from the EU authorities in the Irish backstay. She also urged her party members to unite and "sacrifice their own preferences for a higher goal."

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This is not the first letter addressed to the Conservatives. But in the context of recent events, his rhetoric suggests that May is far from confident in the success of his European voyage. It is known that the prime minister will discuss several compromise proposals with Europeans, the authors of which are British conservatives. In general, their essence boils down to avoid the introduction of the "backstop" mode into action.

But a compromise is always a bilateral concession, thus, it is not surprising that the prime minister is preparing the reason for the fact that London's demands will not be fully met (this is at best). As May asks, it is still an open question whether the British parliamentarians are ready to "step over themselves."

On the one hand, the hawks continue to criticize government actions, whereas the approval of the transaction requires the votes of all conservatives in parliament. On the other hand, there are only 40 days left to Brexit, and there are no real alternatives to the proposed deal.Theresa May managed to cut off all the other (main) options in a few months - a repeated referendum, postponement of the British exit from the EU, resignation of the government and early elections. All of these scenarios have recently been considered "workers", but at the moment, their implementation is extremely unlikely.

In other words, it is too early to write off the "soft" Brexit option: by agreeing to additional negotiations, Brussels can make more substantial concessions that will make it possible to find a compromise solution. Unfortunately, the date of the meeting between May and Juncker is unknown (but it is known for sure that it will take place this week). However, the date of another important event is known - on Tuesday, February 19. The Attorney General of England and Wales, Geoffrey Cox, will inform the British parliamentarians about the amendments that need to be made so that Britain would not be tied to the back-stop regime forever. The results of this vote may affect the dynamics of the pound, although the main attention of traders will be focused on events in Brussels.

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Despite the importance of political events, macroeconomic statistics should also not be ignored. Friday's retail volume data in the UK supported the pound. In January, the indicator came out of the negative area, reaching one percent on a monthly basis. In annual terms, the indicator showed similarly strong dynamics, reaching 4.2%. Without taking into account the cost of fuel, the indicator also accelerated - up to 1.2% in monthly terms and up to 4.1% - in annual terms. This is the strongest growth rate (if we talk about annualized terms) since May 2017. After the disappointing data on the growth of British inflation, this release has allowed to hope for the recovery of the consumer price index, and accordingly - to tighten the rhetoric of members of the Bank of England.

According to general expectations, the English regulator will increase the interest rate by the end of this year - but the final decision on this issue will be made after the completion of the epic with Brexit. Nevertheless, the growth of key macroeconomic indicators is important in the context of monetary policy prospects. Therefore, data on the UK labor market, which will be published on Tuesday, may provoke an increased volatility for the gbp / usd pair. According to preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate will remain at the same record low of 4%. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits will be reduced to 12 thousand (from the previous 20 thousand). f the release comes out at least at the forecast level, this will provide additional support to the pound (unless, of course, the "news from Brussels" is not disappointing).

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In terms of technology, the pair has the potential for further correction to the level of 1.2985 (located in the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). Support levels are located at two elevations - 1.2760 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands) and 1.2625 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud). But here, it is worth noting that the news background regarding the prospects of Brexit is capable of "redrawing" the technical picture, especially if the price movement is impulsive.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 18, 2019

Despite another move lower towards 1.1250 and despite a new lower low, prices bounced back again confirming the support area around 1.1250-1.1280. I continue to expect price to bounce higher from current levels but as long as we trade below 1.15, bears remain in control.

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Black lines - bullish divergence

Red line - major trend line resistance

Green line - support trend line

Black rectangles- bounce target areas.

EUR/USD has made three touches on the green support trend line and each time price bounced. Inability to reach the 38% Fibonacci retracement is a sign of weakness. However the diverging RSI also is a sigh that more sideways correction or a bounce towards 1.1350-1.14 should follow the downward move from 1.1510. Most probable target remains at 1.1340 and maybe towards 1.14. As long as price is below the red trend line resistance bears will remain in control of the medium-term trend. In the short term, I would prefer to wait for the bounce and short at any sign of rejection near my bounce targets.

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Technical analysis for Gold for February 18, 2019

Gold price has broken above short-term resistance at $1,317 and has given us an important short-term bullish signal, targeting new highs towards $1,330-40 now. Major support is now raised to $1,302 while $1,311 is also very important.

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Purple lines - bullish channel

Blue line - major resistance trend line

Yellow rectangle - support

Black rectangle - resistance

Gold price is showing signs of strength and we could see a new higher high towards $1,330 this week. Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows and remains inside the bullish channel. Trend has not changed and in the medium-term it remains bullish. This will change on a break below $1,300. This is now a very important support area that bulls need to hold in order to continue towards the long-term blue trend line resistance at $1,350 area.

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