EUR/NZD : analysis for December 05, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested and rejected from the level of 1.5977 in an ultra high volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion of 100% at the price of 1.5780 and Fibonacci expansion of 161.8% at the price of 1.5715. Our Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% at the price of 1.5910 held successfully, which enabled the price to start with a downward movement. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand. According to the 4H time frame, EUR/NZD is in an absorption phase. So, be careful when buying.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5962


R2: 1.5992


R3: 1.6042


Support levels:


S1: 1.5862


S2: 1.5832


S3: 1.5782


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since we got an absorption volume in the background. Watch for potential selling opportunities.


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Gold : analysis for December 05, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,197.00 in a volume below average. According to the daily time frame, we can obesrve low activity, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,197.00 is on the test. If the price breaks the level of 1,197.00, we may see the level of 1,191.00-1,186.00 is tested. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% at the price of 1,191.00 and Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% at the price of 1,172.00. My advice is to look for buying opportunities near the lows (after retracement). Any larger reaction from buyers may confirm further bullish continuation.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,212.17


R2: 1,215.09


R3: 1,219.83


Support levels:


S1: 1,202.69


S2: 1,199.77


S3: 1,195.03


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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#USDX Wave analysis for December 5, 2014

The Dollar index has made a strong pull back yesterday after the comments by ECB president Mario Draghi. The long-term trend remains bullish. There is however a chance that the index is forming a bearish wedge or in elliott wave terms an ending diagonal pattern to complete the upward move from 79.75.


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The Dollar index remains above the Ichimoku cloud support. The upward move consists of overlapping wave structures. I believe this is a characteristic of an ending diagonal pattern or technically speaking of a bearish wedge at the end of an upward move. The Dollar index might make one fresh higher high but I believe it is close to reversing the trend. Bulls will need to be very cautious and a break below support at 87.50 will be a critical blow to the long-term bullish trend.


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The weekly chart continues to be bullish and shows no worrying signals. So, no reversal signs according to our weekly chart but bulls need to be extra cautious at current levels because there is increased chances of seeing a trend reversal as the rise from 79.75 is at its final stages. Important support is at 87.75. If broken, this would be the first reversal sign.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 5, 2014

Gold price continues to trade sideways. A pullback towards $1,180 is quite possible before the resumption of the uptrend towards $1,270. The short-term trend is neutal as long as price is below $1,215. Bulls should be worried if support at $1,170 fails. On the other hand, bears could see a push above $1,215 which will start to cover short positions.


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Red line = support


Gold price as shown on the above chart is consolidating above support at $1,200. Breaking below it will bring Gold price towards the cloud support and the Ichimoku cloud near $1,180. After this pullback, I believe it will be more probable to see a new upward move starting towards $1,270.


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The weekly chart above shows how price closed above the Tenkan-sen last week. So, this week I expect to see a break towards the kijun-sen towards $1,230 at least. The next important resistance by the Fibonacci ratios is at $1,236 and then at $1,263. The weekly candle of last week is very bullish and I expect to see at least one more bullish weekly candle. So, the trend remains bullish in the short term with increased chances of a move towards $1,260-70.


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Technical Analysis on GBP/USD for December 05, 2014

The BoE Monetary Policy Committee maintained Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at 375 billion pounds sterling. The pound closed marginally red against the US dollar. The pair has been facing strong resistance at 20Dsma for 8 days. The cable has support at 1.5630 on a daily closing basis. In case if the cable closes below 1.5630, we can expect 150-pips fall on the down side. Until the prices are closed and trading below 1.5764 (h4 candle), we can expect 1.5525 on the downside within the strong support zone existed between 1.5630 and 1.5585. From an intraday view, the prices are consolidating between 1.5679 and 1.5710. We recommend selling below 1.5660. The prices are closed and trading below 34hrsma on the h4 chart and the 35DEMA is acting as support at 1.5620. From an speculative perspective, we recommend selling below 1.5660 with the targets at 1.5645, 1.5620, and 1.5585. Today, the focus has shifted to US jobs data and the unemployment rate. Positive readings help the US dollar to make new highs. The cable's fate can be decided after today's US data. The prices are consolidating near the support zone. We can expect 200 pips either side movement in the near term.




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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 5, 2014

General overview for 05/12/2014 08:30 CET


The complex and time-consuming corrective cycle continues to unfold, making rather limited progression so far. This pair is range bounded and next breakout might be crucial for providing more clues about possible further price movement. Nevertheless, the bias is still to the upside in the near and mid - term, even intraday. Any breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1422 is bullish and the market should try to break out even higher to test the recent swing high at the level of 1.1454.


Support/Resistance:


1.1454 - Swing High


1.1446 - 1.1465 - Supply Zone


1.1422 - Intraday Resistance


1.1379 - Weekly Pivot


1.1339 - Intraday Support


1.1317 - WS1


1.1296 - Wave Z Brown Target Level


Trading recommendations:


The day traders should wait for the range breakout to trade this market in the proper direction. Please remember that the uptrend is still intact and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 5, 2014

General overview for 05/12/2014 08:10 CET


The impulsive wave progression continues to the upside with another impulsive wave made yesterday. The top of this wave has hit the upper golden channel boundary at the level of 148.92 and reversed sharply to test the intraday support at the level of 148.17 and bounce. To confirm the intraday bullish bias, the market must break out above the swing high at the level of 149.15 and target the level of 149.76. Otherwise, the wave progression might evolve into an alternative count, that is still indicating rather complex and time-consuming wave X brown possibility before the sell-off.


Support/Resistance:


149.76 - WR2


149.15 - Swing High|Intraday Resistance|


149.11- WR1


148.17 - Intraday Support


147.34 - Weekly Pivot


147.02 - Intraday Support


146.55 - WS1


145.70 - Higher Time Frame Technical Support


144.89 - WS2


144.54 - 144.78 - Target Projection For Wave Y Brown


Trading recommendations:


Yesterday's buy stop orders from the level of 148.17 should be still kept opened and SL should be moved to the break even level. The target is still at the level of 149.11.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 05, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has rallied through 148.50 levels yesterday and remained just a few pips shy from 149.00 as seen here. It is recommended to exit short positions at market price at 148.50/60. Please note that the pair has kept the channel line support intact after a false break day before yesterday. Immediate resistance still remains at 149.10/20 levels while support is seen at 147.00, followed by 146.50, 145.50 and lower respectively. The pair could be looked to be bought during intraday dips ahead of 147.00 levels, risk remains at 147.00. A push through 149.00 now, could see 151.00 and subsequently 154.00 levels soon.


Trading recommendations:


Exit short positions now. Aggressive trade setup is to initiate 50% long positions now (148.50/60), stop below 147.00, the target is at 151.00.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 05, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The aggressive short trade setups at 1.5350 levels have worked out well in GBP/CHF yesterday.The pair has reacted at a fibonacci convergence at 1.5350/60 levels and subsequently dropped below 1.5200 levels as seen here. It is recommended to remain short if positions were taken yesterday, risk remains just above 1.5360. Fresh short positions could be added at current market or during intraday rallies. The fall is expected to accelerate once its rising counter trend line support is broken around 1.5150 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.5070, followed by 1.5000, 1.4950 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5450, followed by 1.5550 respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short (if positions taken yesterday), stop at 1.5400, target is open. Fresh short positions could be taken on intraday rallies.


Good luck!


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 5 - 2014

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Technical summary:


We are still locked in the range between 1.5788 to the downside and 1.6000 to the upside. Only a break out of this range will get things going again. We still favor a break towards the upside, for a rally towards 1.6274 on the way higher to 1.6446 and 1.6800. That said, the risk of cause is a break below 1.5788, that will delay the expected rally for a move closer to 1.5722 before the next rally should be expected.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5830 with stop placed at 1.5775. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5788 or upon a break above 1.5991 with the same stop.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 5 - 2014

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Technical summary:


As the euro was reinforced after a less dovish ECB press conference, a break above 148.19 and even 148.25 was seen. That said, we are still holding below the top at 149.13, which is an invalidation point for our bearish count. In the short term, we will look for new signs of weakness in a form of a break below minor support at 148.11 and more importantly a break below support at 147.28 that would call for wave c lower to 145.35 and possibly even lower to 143.15 if wave c extends.


Trading recommendation:


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Technical Analysis of USD/CHF for December 05, 2014

The pair touched the top end of the channel and fell sharply. The US data gave an optimistic view on the labour market. In the week ending November 29, the flash figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 297,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised print. The pair was sold off in yesterday's session, but managed to hold the descending trend line. The pair managed to erase half of its intraday losses and closed at the breakout level. The prices are facing strong resistance at 0.9720 levels, above this 0.9740 is the other resistance level. In case if the prices are closed above the top end of the channel on daily basis, it adds more bullish thoughts. We have been recommending buying on every dip at 0.9820, 0.9874, 0.9970, and 1.0270. Bulls must be able to close above 0.9742 on a weekly closing basis. Until the prices close above 0.9650, the pair favours buying on dips. From an intraday view, we recommend buying above 0.9720 levels.


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Technical Analysis of Gold for December 05, 2014

GOLD


The yellow metal prices are consolidating in the descending trend line on the daily chart. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The nearest support level exists at $1,200.00. Today, the focus has shifted to US jobs data and the unemployment rate. Positive readings lead to further bearishness of the metal prices. The weekly resistance exists at $1,236.00. The monthly resistance level exists at $1,275.00. The metal has been facing strong resistance in the descending trend line on the daily chart. A daily close above this leads to a relief rally towards $1,230.00. Ahead of the major economic events, the metal looks very weak. We have to monitor the key data. We recommend fresh buying only above $1,206.00. For bears, we recommend selling below $1,200.00 with the targets at $1,195.00 and $1,191.00. The prices have been consolidating for 5 days after a sharp rise. In case if the prices close above $1,212.00, we can expect $1,230.00 in the near term. But please note, the overall strategy remains selling on a rally.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 05, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators. Besides,the US will publish some economic data such as Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Factory Orders m/m, and Consumer Credit m/m. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.53.

Resistance. 2: 120.29.

Resistance. 1: 120.06.

Support. 1: 119.77.

Support. 2: 119.54.

Support. 3: 119.30.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 05, 2014

1417747479_!EURUSD.jpg When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Germany Factory Orders m/m and Revised GDP q/q. The US will release the economic data too such as the Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Factory Orders m/m, and Consumer Credit m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2446.

Strong Resistance:1.2439.

Original Resistance: 1.2427.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2415.

Target Inner Area: 1.2386.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2357.

Original Support: 1.2345.

Strong Support: 1.2333.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2326.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical Analysis of USD/CAD for December 05, 2014

The pair took the 20Dsma support. In the week ending November 29, the flash figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 297,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. Today, the pair is managing to trade in the green. As of now, today it is unable to break the previous high at 1.1397. The pair has resistance at 1.1425 on a daily closing basis. In case if the pair closes above 1.1386 on a weekly basis, it can challenge 260 odd pips on the higher side. On the down side, the pair has a strong support zone between 1.1120 and 1.1100 on a weekly basis. The pair has weekly support at 1.1314, 1.1295, and 1.1250. The swing support exists at 1.1190 levels. Until it closes above 1.1190, the bullish view is still valid. As of now, this week the pair made a high at 1.1459 but it was unable to break 1.1467. In case the pair closes above 1.1467 on a weekly closing basis, it challenges 275 pips in the short term. On the h4 chart, oscillators are giving a buying signal. The pair favours buying on every dip with higher targets. We can see momentum above 1.1400, it can challenge 1.1415, 1.1425, and 1.1445.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 5, 2014

EUR/USD: After testing the support line at 1.2300, this currency pair shot upwards, reaching the resistance line at 1.2450. It is really a break above the resistance line at 1.2500 that can lead to a possibility of forming a bullish bias, otherwise, this could be a wonderful opportunity to go short again.


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USD/CHF: After going above the resistance level at 0.9750, this pair retraced southwards, reaching the support level at 0.9650. It is really a break below the support level at 0.9600 that can lead to a possibility of forming a bearish bias, otherwise, this could be a wonderful opportunity to go long again.


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GBP/USD: This market did not make any major move yesterday – unlike EUR/USD. The outlook remains downwards on the Cable – the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. Price may go downwards below the accumulation territory at 1.5600. Otherwise, price may shot upwards.


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USD/JPY: USD/JPY is now trading above the demand level at 119.50, having tested the supply level at 120.00. With ongoing strength in the market, the supply level at 120.00 may be broken to the upside, and price may close above it. In addition, strong fundamental figures are expected today and they will have a big impact on the market.


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EUR/JPY: A sudden surge of energy in the market has made this cross to break out in a serious manner. Price is now close to the supply zone at 148.50, and with further stamina in the market, the long-awaited supply level at 149.00 would be touched soon. During the upward breakout, the supply zone at 149.00 was almost tested.


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 05, 2014

The USDX has found support in the bullish trend line that is located next to the 88.44 level, as this instrument made a pullback at the resistance level of 89.05. However, the bullish bias remains alive in the USDX, while the 200 SMA on H4 chart remains below the current price of USDX. The MACD indicator is moving into the negative territory.


H4chart's resistance levels: 88.65 / 89.05


H4chart's support levels: 88.44 / 88.27


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In the H1 chart, the USDX found support on the 200 SMA, as this instrument could not hold above the resistance level of 88.99. If the USDX reaches the breakout level of 88.71, the next target would be 88.99 in the short term. However, the MACD indicator is entering the oversold.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 88.71 / 88.99


H1 chart's support levels: 88.43 / 88.15


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 88.71, take profit is at 88.99, and stop loss is at 88.44.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 05, 2014

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair still finds strong support at 1.5642, which would strengthen further the current bearish outlook for this pair, because the GBP/USD pair is forming a bearish pattern. However, we must emphasize the fact that this pair has formed three fractals below the 1.5642 level. The MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.5746 / 1.5883


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5642 / 1.5506


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The GBP/USD still finds dynamic resistance at the 200 SMA, although it does not change the fact that this pair remains strong in the overall bearish bias. Therefore, during today's session the GBP/USD pair is likely to fall back to the support level of 1.5632, although caution is advised when making short-term trading at present. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5686 / 1.5739


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5632 / 1.5590


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5632, take profit is at 1.5590, and stop loss is at 1.5672.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 5, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair has still been trapped between the level of 1.2315 and 1.2440.

  • Strong resistance will be formed at the level of 1.2478 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels) providing a clear signal for sell deals with the targets at 1.1403 and 1.1317.

  • Stop-loss is to be placed above 1.1480.

  • Strong support will be formed at the level of 1.2283 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the targets seen at the 1.2390 and 1.2441 levels.

  • Stop-loss is to be placed below the level of 1.2283. This level represents the double bottom on the H1 chart.


Observations :



  • The double top will be set at the level of 1.2506 and the double bottom has already been set at the mark of 1.2283.

  • The value of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.2478 (for confirming the bearish market).

  • We expect a range of 124 pips today.

  • But it should be noted that the risk of 80 pips must make a profit of 120 pips.

  • Volatility: 246.79.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 5, 2014

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Overview :



  • The trading recommendations today will give its impact in the short term. Also, we should remember that history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Thus, according to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is going to move between 1.1313 and 1.1454. In particular, the double bottom has set at the price of 1.1314 and the support is represented at the same level on H4 chart. Consequently, the trend may fail to close below the strong support at 1.1313. So, buy below the level of 1.1313 with the first target at 1.1418, then it will be continued towards 1.1554 in order to test this strong support. The stop-loss is to be placed below the level of 1.1313. On the other hand, the strong resistance will be formed at the level of 1.1465 (100% Fibonacci retracement levels) providing a clear signal for sell deals with the targets seen at 1.1420 and 1.1393.



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Intraday technical levels :


Date:5/12/2014


Pair:USD/CAD



  • R3: 1.1463

  • R2: 1.1430

  • R1: 1.1406

  • PP: 1.1373

  • S1: 1.1349

  • S2: 1.1316

  • S3: 1.1292


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 04, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-year high 119.87 on Wednesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 88.94 versus 88.62 early Wednesday) and higher shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.559% versus 0.539% late Tuesday) as stronger-than-expected U.S. November ISM non-manufacturing PMI of 59.3 (versus forecast 57.6 and October's 57.1) outweighed fewer-than-expected 208,000 increase in U.S ADP new private-sector jobs in November (versus forecast +223,000) and lower-than-expected revised U.S. 3Q productivity of +2.3% (versus forecast +2.5%) & 3Q unit labor costs of -1.0% (versus forecast -0.7%); U.S. Federal Reserve November Beige Book report offered a broadly upbeat view of the economy, recent hawkish speeches from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and New York Fed chief William Dudley reinforced expectations that U.S. interest rates would start to rise by mid-2015. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers, Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy and positive investor risk appetite as Wall Street climbed to record highs overnight amid stabilizing oil prices and accommodative monetary policies from major central banks (VIX fear gauge eased 2.96% to 12.47; S&P 500 hit all-time high 2,076.28 before closing up 0.38% at 2,074.33). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales; caution ahead of U.S. payrolls report Friday.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.15 and the second target at 120.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 118.50. The pivot point is at 119.45.


Resistance levels:

120.15

120.60

121


Support levels:

119

118.50

118


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 04, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment, weak commodity and dairy prices and Kiwi sales on rebounding AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positive investor risk appetite and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical Comment:

Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7710. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7680. The pivot point stands at 0.7785. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7710 and the second target at 0.7680.


Resistance levels:

0.7830

0.7855

0.7890



Support levels:
0.7710

0.7680

0.7635


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 04, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. GBP/JPY is undermined by the soft euro sentiment and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the positive investor risk appetite, demand from Japan's importers and buoyant USD/JPY undertone. Sterling sentiment boosted by surprise rise in U.K. CIPS/Markit services PMI to 58.6 in November from October's 56.2 (versus forecast 56.1), U.K. Treasury chief George Osborne in his Autumn Statement on U.K. economic recovery.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are bearish, but five and 15-day moving averages are still advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 188.35 and the second target at 188.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 186.90. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 186.25. The pivot point is at 187.35.


Resistance levels:

188.35

188.90

189.45


Support levels:

186.80

186.25

185.50


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