Hot forecast and trading recommendation for EUR/USD on June 1, 2020

The stubborn growth of the single European currency throughout the past week was sometimes puzzling. Especially on Friday, when, according to all the laws of the genre, it should have become cheaper. Although it must be admitted that US data does not cause much enthusiasm, so there is no particular reason for the dollar to rise. But we can say that all questions were answered. on the weekend. After all, American cities were swept by a wave of protests, which often turned into clashes with the police. It got to the point that curfews were imposed in a number of cities. Moreover, the protests did not begin on the weekend, but much earlier. They just gradually increased and reached their peak this weekend. One of the reasons is another sad case of a policeman killing a young black guy. But, probably, the main reason is that people are tired. People are already losing their jobs en masse, and under the conditions of the limited quarantine regime they have no chance of finding a new one. Restrictive measures in the United States are lifted somehow slowly and strangely. And in some states they don't want them removed at all just yet. Europe, which is gradually and systematically softening restrictive measures, looks much more attractive against this background. At least it looks like a calmer place. The European Central Bank is expected to take some concrete steps to support the economy.

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Nevertheless, if we look at macroeconomic statistics, then the single European currency has every reason for concern. According to preliminary data, inflation slowed down from 0.3% to 0.1%. This, of course, is not deflation yet, but with one foot already there. Moreover, in monthly terms, consumer prices have already decreased by 0.1%. But the market behaved as if this data was not there.

Inflation (Europe):

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We must admit that US data are quite surprising in their absurdity. Data on personal income and expenses for April do not fit into the framework of formal logic. So, expenses decreased by 13.6%, which is quite understandable. However, personal income in a strange way grew by 10.5%, which in the face of an unprecedented increase in unemployment, to put it mildly, looks very strange. Moreover, income data even caused a temporary increase in the dollar. But quite quickly, investors saw strange discrepancies, and the dollar resumed its weakening.

Personal Income (United States):

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The single European currency may well continue to grow due to the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector. This same index should grow from 33.4 to 39.5. Moreover, this is the data for May, that is, it turns out that European industry is at least beginning to see at least some glimmers of hope.

Manufacturing Business Activity Index (Europe):

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However, the surge of violence in the United States was so strong that the police had no choice but to harshly suppress all possible protests. This should lead to a reduction in mass gatherings, as well as the level of violence. In addition, the total data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should show an increase in the index from 36.1 to 39.8. That is, in the United States, industry sees the possibility of at least some improvement in the situation. So in the afternoon, the dollar may well try to win back at least part of its previous losses.

Manufacturing Business Activity Index (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see an upward movement, on the basis of which a number of price levels have been passed, eventually completing a two-month formation of a flat, as well as changing the clock component of the current period. Regarding the details, we can highlight reaching the March 27 high at 1.1147, which played the role of local resistance.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, you can initially see a significant change in price since March, where the quote moved from the compression stage to the movement process.

It can be assumed that if the value of 1.1150 falls, the upward trend will continue towards 1.1180-1.1200, where deceleration with the subsequent formation of a rebound is not excluded, which will be expressed as a correction in the future.

Specifying all of the above into trading signals:

- Buy positions should be considered higher than 1.1150 in the direction of 1.1180-1.1200.

- We consider selling positions in terms of price rebound from the 1.1180-1.1200 area, in the case of initial slowdown.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments are focused on the upward trend, signaling a purchase.

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USD/JPY - second chance to reach 108!

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Good afternoon traders! A trading idea for the USD / JPY pair.

A pin bar was formed in the trend last Friday, marking the last day of spring as bullish.

D1 chart:

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The formation of the bar caused the quotes to roll back 50% this morning.

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Open long positions to update seller stop orders at 108, limiting the risks of Friday's initiative.

"Price Action" and "Stop Hunting" methods were used to formulate this trading idea.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis for the GBP/USD pair for the week of June 1 to 6

Trend analysis.

This week, the price from the level of 1.2346 (closing of the last weekly candle) will move up with the target at 1.2499 - a pullback level of 76.4% (red dashed line) and in case of testing this level, work up with the next upper target at 1.2646 - upper fractal (red dashed line ). If this level is tested, it will work down.

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Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - neutral;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is an upward movement.

The total result of calculating the candle of the GBP/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week will most likely have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candlestick (Monday - up) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday - up).

The first upper target at 1.2499 - a pullback level of 76.4% (red dashed line)

The weekly upper target at 1.2646 - upper fractal (red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: the price from the level of 1.2346 (closing the last closed weekly candle) works down with the lower target at 1.2174 - a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on June 1

Forecast for June 1:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1294, 1.1254, 1.1197, 1.1168, 1.1115, 1.1085, 1.1037 and 1.0994. Here, we are following the ascending structure of May 25. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1168 - 1.1197. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1254. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1294. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1115 - 1.1085. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the goal is 1.1037. This level is a key support for the upward structure and its breakdown will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the potential goal is 1.0994.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of May 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1198 Take profit: 1.1252

Buy: 1.1255 Take profit: 1.1292

Sell: 1.1085 Take profit: 1.1038

Sell: 1.1035 Take profit: 1.0995

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2631, 1.2566, 1.2515, 1.2438, 1.2361, 1.2319 and 1.2264. Here, we are following the ascending structure of May 25. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2438. In this case, the target is 1.2515. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2515 - 1.2566. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2631. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2566.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2361 - 1.2319. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2264. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure of May 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2438 Take profit: 1.2515

Buy: 1.2517 Take profit: 1.2564

Sell: 1.2360 Take profit: 1.2320

Sell: 1.2317 Take profit: 1.2266

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For the dollar/franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9671, 0.9639, 0.9618, 0.9586, 0.9564, 0.9533 and 0.9515. Here, we are following the descending structure of May 25. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9586 - 0.9564. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9533. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9515. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9618 - 0.9639. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. In this case, the target is 0.9671. This level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the descending structure of May 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9618 Take profit: 0.9637

Buy : 0.9641 Take profit: 0.9670

Sell: 0.9586 Take profit: 0.9566

Sell: 0.9562 Take profit: 0.9535

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.72, 108.50, 108.07, 107.93, 107.73, 107.38, 107.23 and 107.04. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the upward movement of May 29. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.73. In this case, the target is 107.93. Price consolidation is in the range of 107.93 - 108.07. The breakdown of the level of 108.07 will lead to a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 108.50. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.72. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 107.38 - 107.23. The breakdown of the last level will lead to the cancellation of the upward structure from May 29. In this case, the target is 107.04.

The main trend is building potential for the top of May 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.73 Take profit: 107.93

Buy : 108.08 Take profit: 108.50

Sell: 107.38 Take profit: 107.25

Sell: 107.20 Take profit: 107.06

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3942, 1.3873, 1.3829, 1.3758, 1.3705 and 1.3627. Here, we are following the development of the medium-term downward cycle of May 14. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3758 - 1.3705. The breakdown of the latter level will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 1.3627. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3829 - 1.3873. The breakdown of the latter level will lead to the development of an in-depth correction. Here, the potential goal is 1.3942. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed to this level.

The main trend is the medium-term downward trend of May 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3829 Take profit: 1.3870

Buy : 1.3875 Take profit: 1.3940

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.3703 Take profit: 1.3637

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6919, 0.6866, 0.6792, 0.6760, 0.6705, 0.6666, 0.6614 and 0.6585. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of May 15. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6760 - 0.6792. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6866. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6919. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and a downward pullback.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.6705 - 0.6666. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6614. The range of 0.6614 - 0.6585 is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6792 Take profit: 0.6864

Buy: 0.6867 Take profit: 0.6918

Sell : 0.6705 Take profit : 0.6667

Sell: 0.6664 Take profit: 0.6616

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.23, 120.78, 120.24, 119.97, 119.51, 119.18 and 118.70. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of May 22. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 119.97 - 120.24. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 120.78. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.23. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 119.51 - 119.18. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 118.70. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of May 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.97 Take profit: 120.23

Buy: 120.26 Take profit: 120.76

Sell: 119.50 Take profit: 119.20

Sell: 119.16 Take profit: 118.72

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.82, 135.19, 134.28, 133.86, 132.84, 132.36 and 131.65. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of May 15. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 133.86 - 134.28. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 135.19. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 135.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 132.84 - 132.36. The breakdown of the last level will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 131.65. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 15

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.86 Take profit: 134.27

Buy: 134.30 Take profit: 135.19

Sell: 132.84 Take profit: 132.38

Sell: 132.34 Take profit: 131.70

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Technical analysis for the EUR/USD pair for the week of June 1 to 6

Trend analysis.

This week, the price from the level of 1.1099 (closing of the last weekly candle) may continue to move up with the first target 1.1174 - the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). After reaching this level, the price will continue to increase to the next upper target 1.1213 - a pullback level of 76.4% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is an upward movement.

The total result of calculating the candlestick of the EUR/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend, with the absence of a lower shadow for the weekly white candlestick (Monday - up) and the absence of a second upper shadow (Friday - up).

The upper weekly target 1.1213 is a pullback level of 76.4% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely lower scenario: the price from the upper fractal - 1.1145 (red dashed line) can start moving down, with the first target 1.1024 - a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for June 1, 2020

The pair traded upwards on Friday and tested 1.2360 - a 50.0% pullback level (presented in a blue dashed line). Today, the price may continue to move up. Economic calendar news for the pound is expected at 08:30 UTC, and for the dollar at 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the upward trend may continue from the level of 1.2345 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle) with the target of 1.2427 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). If this level is reached, a downward pullback is possible.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upwards with the target of 1.2427 - a 61.8% retracement level (presented in a blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, the upward movement may continue with the target of 1.2510 (presented in a blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is a downward trend from 1.2427 - a 61.6% rollback level (presented in a blue dotted line) with the target at the support line 1.2253 (presented in a red bold line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for June 1, 2020

On Friday, the pair tested the upper fractal 1.1146 (presented in a red dashed line) then traded downwards closing 45 points below. Today, the price may continue to move up. Economic calendar news for the euro is expected at 07:55 UTC, and for the dollar at 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the upward trend may continue from the level of 1.1101 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle) with the target at the upper fractal 1.1146 (presented in a red dashed line). From this level, the price may begin to move downwards with the target of 1.1072 - a 14.6% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move upward with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1151 (presented in a blue dashed line). From this level, the price may begin to move downwards with the target of 1.1072 - a 14.6% retracement level (presented in a red dashed line). Upon reaching this level, an upward pullback is possible.

Another possible scenario is an upward trend from the historical resistance level 1.1151 (presented in a blue dashed line) with the target of 1.1169 - a 61.8% pullback level (presented in a blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, the upward trend may continue.

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"We did everything we could," Powell said on Friday.

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On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed fully utilized all its tools to combat the effects of strict quarantine measures, which caused the closure of the global economy and increased unemployment in the United States.

"We did everything we could," said Powell, "reducing interest rates to almost zero, creating an unlimited number of bond purchases to reassure markets,and initiating emergency lending programs to support the flow of loans to businesses and state governments."

Meanwhile, economists are gearing up for a deep drop in output in the second quarter. They forecast that gradual recovery will occur in the remainder of the year.

According to data published last week, more than 40 million people, or about one in four American workers, have applied for unemployment benefits since mid-March. It is estimated that next Friday, the report will show a jump in the index of about 19.5%.

Powell said that the job losses were mostly from low-paid jobs in the service sector, exacerbating economic inequality.

With regards to a re-outbreak, Powell expressed concern that if a second round of quarantine happens in the US, economic recovery will be much slower.

"A second wave will really undermine public confidence and can lead to a longer and more difficult recovery," he said.

Powell also emphasized that he does not seek to follow the actions of other countries in lowering interest rates to a negative value. He said that the Fed's policy is to keep rates only near zero, purchasing long-term government bonds as alternative or compensation to whatever negative interest rates are imposed.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 1, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Cyble Research Team has conducted research that showed that data on more than 80,000 credit cards around the world has been put up for sale at Darknet.

According to the information, the data leakage concerned credit card users from various countries, such as the United States (33,000), France (14,000), Australia (5,000), United Kingdom (5,000), Canada (2,000) .), Singapore (1.2 thousand) and India (1.3 thousand). According to the message from Cyble, these are both Visa and Matercard. Each of them contains the cardholder's surname, CVV number and expiry date. The price of these cards is $ 5 in crypto, and is independent of their value in a world outside of Darknet.

According to research, information about the countries where the cards come from was disclosed due to a billing data leak. This information included the address of each cardholder, making it easier for cyber security companies to determine the country of origin of each card.

It's not entirely clear where the hackers stole their card details, but Cyble thinks they may come from a phishing site or online stores that the hackers attacked. Cybele created a special search engine so that people could check if their personal data leaked into Darknet. In total, the company's database contains over 40 billion records.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been hovering around the level of $235 for all the weekend and made a new local high at the level of $241.06. This level is just in line with the upper parallel channel line, so it might act as a dynamic resistance despite the fact that it was violated recently. The momentum is not increasing at the alarming rate, so some kind of a corrective pull-back is expected. The target level for correction is seen at $225.84, but the larger time-frame trend remains up. The next target for bulls is seen at 261% Fibonacci extension at $247.36.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $307.85

WR2 - $277.87

WR1 - $257.91

Weekly Pivot - $226.70

WS1 - $208.30

WS2 - $176.78

WS3 - $157.13

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 1, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Telegram's founder and CEO, Pavel Durov, donated Bitcoins worth about $ 90,000 to help reduce the financial burden on the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia.

Egor Zhukov, a student political activist who organized a crowdfunding campaign to help people deal with the pandemic crisis, announced a donation from Durov.

Zhukov wrote on his Instagram on Wednesday evening that the donation would help volunteers buy more food and provide it to people who could not afford it. The initiative received the name Vzaimipomosch, which means "mutual help" in Russian.

"Pavel reached out to us and offered help," said Zhukov. He added that part of the donation had already been issued. The donation is large for Russia: from the perspective of this amount, you can buy an apartment in Moscow. The Vzaimipomosch Bitcoin Wallet has received around 14 Bitcoin donations since March.

The movement is not the only one that accepts donations in cryptocurrencies: some Russian NGOs also accept Bitcoins, Ether and others. These include the Internet Freedom Movement Roskomsvoboda and Russia Behind Bars, a fund to help Russian prisoners. A popular opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, also raises funds in a crypto for his activist network.

Telegram itself does not currently use cryptocurrencies directly. The company's project, TON, was completed earlier this month after a protracted legal struggle with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which claimed that the pre-sale of Telegram tokens was an offer of unregistered securities.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been hovering around the level of $9,500 for all the weekend. There is no sign of an increasing bearish pressure on the market, instead of that the bulls are still not throwing the towel yet. The technical support at the level of $9,381 is still being used as a bounce level towards the technical resistance seen at $9,704. All eyes on $10k this week as any violation of this level will be a very bullish signal.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,128

WR2 - $10,392

WR1 - $9,960

Weekly Pivot - $9,277

WS1 - $8,866

WS2 - $8,158

WS3 - $7,756

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 1, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been moving up in a trend and recently the bulls have managed to break through the upper ascending channel boundary and made a new local high at the level of 1.1145. This is the lower supply zone boundary located between the levels of 1.1148 - 1.1190. Please notice, the market conditions are now overbought and despite the positive and strong momentum the price might start a corrective pull-back towards the nearest technical support located at the level of 1.1050.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1499

WR2 - 1.1307

WR1 - 1.1241

Weekly Pivot - 1.1045

WS1 - 1.0959

WS2 - 1.0772

WS3 - 1.0680

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 1, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has hit the level of 1.2406, which is a part of the second target zone for bulls. The market is still moving inside of the ascending channel and the next target is seen at the level of 1.2466. The momentum is still strong and positive, so odds for a local up trend continuation after the range breakout are high. The last swing low and technical support is seen at the level of 1.2072, but there is still a long way to test this level of support. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2362.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2667

WR2 - 1.2540

WR1 - 1.2455

Weekly Pivot - 1.2311

WS1 - 1.2222

WS2 - 1.2062

WS3 - 1.2001

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 1 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound movements indicate an active struggle

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

On Friday, in my forecast for the afternoon, I paid attention to purchases after the next update of support 1.2290. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how, after the next test of this area, the bulls without hesitation returned to the market, counting on the continuation of the uptrend formed from mid-May. At the moment, their task is to break and consolidate above the resistance of 1.2411, the primary test of which has already taken place today at the Asian session. The bulls will be able to maintain a good upward momentum in this scenario, which can lead the pair to new highs in the area of 1.2463 and 1.2508, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD falls in the morning, and this can happen only after poor data on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector, a false breakout in the support area of 1.2348 will be a signal to open long positions, otherwise it is best to consider buying immediately for a rebound from the support of 1.2290, which repeatedly helped out last Friday.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The task of sellers in the first half of the day is to form a false breakout in the region of this week's high, where resistance 1.2411 passes. However, more serious pressure on the pair can only form if there is disappointing data on manufacturing activity in the UK or negative news related to negotiations on a trade agreement with the EU. An equally important task for the bears is to return GBP/USD to the support area of 1.2348, consolidating below this range can lead to forming a new downward impulse that can pull down the pound to support 1.2290, and then to a larger level of 1.2237, where I recommend taking profit . In a growth scenario above this week's high, it's best not to rush into opening short positions, but rather wait until the levels 1.2463 and 1.2508 are updated, where you can sell immediately for a rebound while expecting a correction of 20-30 points at the end of the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, and the market is on the side of pound buyers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.2411 will lead to a larger growth of the pound. If the pair decreases, support will be provided by the lower border in the area of 1.2290.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 1 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Bulls continue to buy euros. Goal is breakout

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

I paid special attention to resistance 1.1139 on Friday afternoon, near which the upward movement of the European currency slowed down. Forming a false breakout there was a direct signal to open short positions. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you can see how the bulls tried to return to the market several times, but failed to gain a foothold at 1.1139, which resulted in profit taking by the end of the week. The technical picture has not changed much at the moment, and trading continues to be conducted around the 1.1139 level. Further movement will depend on data on production activity in the eurozone, as well as on whether the bulls will be able to gain a foothold above the 1.1139 range or not. After a successful breakout, I recommend continuing to open long positions above this resistance with the main goal of updating the high of 1.1183 and reaching a larger level of 1.1231, where you can take profits. If there is no active EUR/USD growth above 1.1139 in the morning, it is best to postpone purchases and wait for the euro to correct in the support area of 1.1085 or open long positions immediately to rebound from larger lows of 1.1034 and 1.0994.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers have once again tried to stop the bull market today in the Asian session and are actively not letting the pair go above resistance 1.1139. Now the bears need to wait for the fundamental statistics on the eurozone to come out, as well as form a false breakout in the area of this resistance, which will be the first signal to open short positions, the goal will be to support 1.1085. However, consolidating below this level will result in a sell-off of EUR/USD to the area of lows 1.1034 and 1.0994, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro grows further in the first half of the day, it is best to return to short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1183 or even higher, from a larger resistance 1.1231, based on a correction of 20-30 points by the end of the day. It is also worth paying attention to divergence, which can be clearly traced back from the Friday level. If the divergence on the MACD indicator persists after updating last week's high, this will also be an additional signal to open short positions.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth of the euro in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

The upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1139 will act as resistance, a break through which will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case the euro falls, the lower border in the area of 1.1085 will support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XAU/USD facing bullish pressure from support, potential for further upside

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1725.36

Reason for Entry: horizontal overlap support, 100% fibonacci extension, 38.2% fibonacci retracement, ascending support line

Take Profit: 1765.23

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss: 1709.16

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 1, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro worked out the embedded line of the price channel last Friday, and makes an attempt to overcome it this morning. Success paves the way for the price in the target range of 1.1250-1.1265. The indicators on the daily timeframe show no signs of a reversal.

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The price is above the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is growing without signs of a reversal. Apparently, the transition of the price above the signal level of 1.1145, which triggers it to go higher, is only a matter of time.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 1, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound could not gain a foothold over the signal level of 1.2362 last Friday, it only did so in the morning. The 1.2422 target for the Fibonacci level 138.2% on the daily chart, obviously, will be taken, consolidating above it on the lower timeframe will allow the price to continue rising to the second target of 1.2540 - to the Fibonacci level 123.6%. The Marlin oscillator is optimistically growing in the positive trend zone.

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The price consolidated above the signal level of 1.2362 on the H4 chart this morning, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is growing after a Friday reversal from the boundary with the territory of the negative (decreasing) trend.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 1, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has successfully realized its bullish potential, which has been accumulating for three days. This morning, the price went above the signal-target level of 0.6677 and jumped to the target level of 0.6825 - the January 2016 low. Overcoming it will allow the price to grow to the price channel line in the region of 0.6935. Now the double reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the boundary zero line is interpreted as an enhanced trend reversal.

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The price goes up on the four-hour chart, but is not in a hurry to not follow the Marlin oscillator. It even retains the ability to form double divergence. Taking into account the strong upward momentum of the daily scope, we expect the indicator to grow further on H4 without forming a divergence, but this is a signal to make purchases with a small trading volume.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 1, 2020

USD/JPY

The yen traded in the range of more than 80 points on Friday, closing the day by 15 points with the release of US data on personal income and expenses for April. Revenues rose 10.5% from expectations of -7.0%, which will lead to increased consumption in the coming months. Stock indices reacted mixed: S&P 500 0.48%, Dow Jones -0.07%, Nasdaq 1.29%, Russell 2000 -0.72%. Today, in the Asian session, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index grows by 1.26% and even the Chinese Shanghai Composite, despite Trump's threats to reconsider its relations with Hong Kong (and, obviously, with China), grows by 1.40%. American investors still believe that Trump will not go to extreme aggravation with China before the presidential election.

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The price is confidently held by the red balance indicator line on the daily chart. The MACD line proved to be a reliable support. Since the price was released above the signal level of 107.78, we are waiting for its growth to 108.30.

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The price is above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, Marlin returned to the growth zone. The time for a decisive assault on the first target level has arrived.

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AUDUSD reacting above trendline support and looks for further upside!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.66799

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.67560

Reason for Take Profit: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.66237

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing low, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 1. COT report. Negotiations on Brexit continue "for the sake

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound/dollar on Friday also tried to continue to move up, however, unlike EUR/USD, it failed to do so. In general, the entire movement of the GBP/USD pair remains weaker, although it still persists. An attempt was made to overcome the local May 26 high, but it failed. Moreover, a strong resistance area of 1.2402-1.2423 and a resistance level of 1.2399 are waiting for the pair above. Thus, there are immediately three obstacles that can stall upward movement. Buyers of the British pound continue to doubt the appropriateness of these trading operations. If the general fundamental background is approximately the same in the EU and the US, therefore, we can expect movement in different directions, then in the pound/dollar pair's case, the fundamental background remains weaker in the UK than in the US. Thus, the upward trend still remains, but in the near future, bears can begin to put pressure on the pair and try to overcome the upward trend line.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels continue to be directed upward on the 15-minute timeframe, therefore, there are no signs of an upward trend ending here. However, as we said above, it will be difficult for buyers to overcome the resistance area, which is located higher. Therefore, both channels can begin to turn down at the beginning of a new trading week and month.

COT Report

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The same picture as for the euro/dollar pair. Despite the fact that in total the demand for the pound did not change among all major traders during the reporting week (a total of 8600 contracts for buying and selling were opened), professional players mainly bought the pound - plus 5205 contracts, and from contracts for sale they, on the contrary, got rid of (-1,686 contracts). Thus, the mood of traders remained upward and at the end of last week the situation, in principle, did not change. But in order for the upward movement to continue, it is necessary that large traders continue to invest in the British currency, and for this we need reasons and reasons, which, in the pound's case, are now quite difficult to find.

The fundamental background for the British pound remains negative. No macroeconomic report was published in the UK during the previous trading week. However, it is obvious that the British economy continues to experience serious problems. If US GDP could lose about 5% in the first quarter, then it might be more for Britain's GDP. In addition, exactly one month remains until July 1, when London and Brussels will have to announce the end of the "transition period" on December 31, 2020. Negotiations between the parties on a comprehensive deal are being conducted more "for the sake of now." The last three rounds did not bring the parties closer to signing the agreement and showed that no progress was made on the most complex issues. In the second half of June, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will personally travel to Brussels to negotiate with Ursula von der Leyen and other EU top officials. However, hardly anyone expects the prime minister to be able to "smooth the corners" between the parties in a couple of days. Most likely, he also will not be able to agree, and he will return to London with nothing, but once again he will be able to declare to the public that he tried to negotiate with the EU, but the bloc does not want to concede.

We have two main options for the development of the event as of June 1:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of the bulls, however, further upward movement will be possible only after breaking the resistance line of 1.2361. If this happens, it will be possible to open small purchases while aiming for the resistance area of 1.2402 - 1.2423. We recommend considering larger and longer-term purchase transactions only if this area is overcome with a view to the resistance level of 1.2502. Take Profit will amount to around 30 points in the first case and 70 in the second.

2) Sellers continue to remain in the shadow, but will be ready to join the game below the ascending trend line. If the pair is fixed below this line, we recommend resuming sales of the GBP/USD pair with the targets of the Senkou Span B line 1.2206 and the May 18 low at 1.2073. In this case, Take Profit will be about 55 to 180 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 1. COT report. Large traders actively bought the euro last

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair continued to move upward on the hourly timeframe during Friday, andthe resistance level of 1.1111 and the March 27 high at 1.1147 worked at the end of the day. More precisely, until the last two points were not reached, but it can also be considered a test. The euro/dollar started a downward correction after these events, which was very expected for the last trading day of the week and month. However, the bulls hold the pair tightly in their hands, even too tightly. The correction turned out to be very weak and upward movement may resume today. At least this is what the pair's presence inside the ascending channel with several points of support indicates. Thus, the upward trend is unambiguously maintained. By the way, two ascending trend lines also signal this.

EUR/USD 15M

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We see the same picture on the 15-minute timeframe. Two ascending channels of linear regression, which clearly indicate the current upward trend and on the lowest chart. Thus, at the moment we do not have a single signal about the end of the trend. Even the correction happened inside both channels and can already be completed.

COT Report

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The latest COT report showed that professional traders unexpectedly bought European currency during the reporting week. "Suddenly" - because, from our point of view, the fundamental background was not entirely in favor of the euro. It was not in anyone's favor. However, over the past week, we drew the attention of traders to the fact that sometimes the euro grows without having the necessary grounds for this. Large traders are present in the market and usually they are the ones who move one or another pair. And they do not always perform trade operations, based on a fundamental or macroeconomic background. Large traders found reasons to open new 7524 purchase contracts. There were only 3817 sales contracts for the reporting week. Actually, this is already enough to understand how the mood of large traders for the reporting week has changed. The end of the week ended on the side of the buyers, so the euro's demand may continue to grow among major players.

The overall fundamental background for the pair remains neutral. Several not so significant macroeconomic reports were released in the current conditions in the eurozone and the US on Friday, which, as you might guess, failed. The European Union published inflation for May in a preliminary estimate and amounted to 0.1% in annual terms. Recall that the normal value for inflation is more than 1.5% y/y, and the target is 2.0% y/y. Reports on changes in personal income and expenses of the US population were issued. The first indicator unexpectedly increased by 10.5% in April, and the second - decreased by 13.6%. Michigan consumer confidence index turned out to be worse than forecasted and amounted to only 72.3 in May. Thus, these statistics were not supposed to support any currency, however, market participants found reasons for new purchases of the euro, and we believe that this is exactly the case when large players led the market.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 1:

1) It is possible for quotes to grow further with the goal of the resistance level for the 4-hour chart at 1.1214. However, since traders still could not overcome the March 27 high last Friday, there are still little chances of moving down and ending the upward trend. Therefore, we recommend that you wait until this level is overcome and only after that open new purchase orders. Potential Take Profit in this case will be about 60 points.

2) The second option - bearish - involves consolidating the EUR/USD pair under the upward channel, which will allow sellers to turn on and start trading lower with targets at 1,1016 (Kijun-sen) - 1,0960 (upward trend line) - 1.0891 (Senkou Span B) - 1.0835 (ascending trend line). Overcoming each of the obstacles will allow you to keep short positions open. Potential Take Profit range from 45 to 200 points.

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The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly prospects for GBP/USD

The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly prospects for GBP/USD

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Based on the latest report of the COT (Commitments of Traders), the British pound continues to maintain high open interest (188,650) and quantitative interest among major players (107 against 105). In the total monetary equivalent, the positions long (169,246) and short (156,214) are now approximately equal. The same conclusion can be reached with a more detailed analysis of the statistics of individual groups, although major players (Non-Commercial) retain a certain balance of power on the side of the bearish trend (61.449 against 39.192), while hedgers (Commercials) continue to actively strengthen long positions (3.456 against 1.466 - 124.256 against 88.967). The COT financial report, with more detailed statistics on major players, shows that the number of traders with short contracts significantly exceeds the number of those who keep long contracts.

Main conclusion

The confrontation will continue. At the same time, as before, tactics will most likely dominate among rivals on either side - a step forward and two steps back.

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The technical picture shows that although the players to decline managed to keep the pair under the key resistance, indicated earlier in the area of 1.2357 (daily medium-term trend), they did not manage to achieve more and return their activity to the market. Perhaps, the support of big money will do the trick and we will see a recovery and a continuation of the bearish trend, but the greener line of the positions of the Commercials group of traders on the chart of the COT report, which is more abruptly increasing, does not inspire much optimism in the execution of this scenario. On the other hand, bullish prospects are now associated with the liquidation of the daily cross (1.2357 - 1.2425) and the formation of an upward target for the breakdown of the daily Ichimoku cloud. Bearish interests, in turn, will depend on the effectiveness of breaking through important supports 1.2214 (weekly Fibo Kijun + lower border of the daily cloud) - 1.2073 (minimum extreme) - 1.1970 (historical support).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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