GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 10. Pound sellers have a break. COT reports. Bulls ready to fight for

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, it was not possible to catch the pound's main movements that occurred within the day, but in general, we managed to earn several dozen points on pullback movements after testing large support and resistance levels. Let's look at the deals. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how buy positions for rebounding from the support of 1.2916 brought about 30 points, after which a false breakout of this level took place. However, it was not possible to wait for a convenient entry point from this range. After an upward correction in the afternoon, sell positions for a rebound from the resistance of 1.3007 on the first test also brought about 30 points of profit. At the moment, the bulls have the main task of breaking through and settling above the resistance of 1.3018, which coincides with yesterday's highs. This will lead to continuing the bullish correction and it is quite possible to return to the resistance area of 1.3103, which is where I recommend taking profits. We should not expect a strong bullish momentum, given the lack of important fundamental data on the British economy, and the current situation with the Brexit trade deal. It is best to open long positions in GBP/USD after a downward correction and a false breakout in the support area of 1.2940, where the lower limit of a new upward channel can also appear. I recommend making longs for a rebound from the week's low of 1.2890, but only based on a correction of 30-40 points from this level, since a repeated test of this range will certainly return large sellers to the market who are betting on the pair's decline in the long term.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 1 showed an increase in both long and short positions, but there were more buyers. Short non-commercial positions increased from 39,790 to 42,901 during the week. Non-commercial long positions grew from 39,045 to 49,213. As a result, the non-commercial net position also slightly grew and remained in positive territory, reaching 6,312, against 5,600.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers need to urgently protect resistance at 1.3018, a false breakout on it will cause GBP/USD to repeatedly fall to the support area of 1.2940, where the main struggle for the pair's long term direction will unfold. Consolidating below this range will open a straight road to the low of 1.2890, a breakout of which will quickly pull down the British pound to the 1.2840 area with the prospect of falling to the large support area of 1.2775, where I recommend taking profit. In case bears are not active in the 1.3018 area, it is best to postpone short positions until the resistance test at 1.3103 and sell GBP/USD from there immediately on a rebound, counting on a 30-40 pips correction within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of a continuation of the upward correction.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3025 will cause the GBP/USD to increase. A breakthrough of the lower limit around 1.2940 will increase pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 10, 2020

The pair traded downward on Wednesday and tested the support level 1.2885 (red bold line) and went up, closing the day with a white candle. Today, the price may continue to move up. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:30 and 15:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move upward from the level of 1.3002 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target of 1.3138 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line). In case of testing this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target of 1.3209 - an 85.4% pullback level (blue dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.3138 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line). In case of testing this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target of 1.3209 - an 85.4% pullback level (blue dotted line).

Another possible scenario is from the level of 1.3002 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may move downward with the target at the support level 1.2885 (red bold line). If this level is reached, the price may begin to move upward.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Lagarde's positive assessment of the state of the European economy will support the euro

Today, all the attention of the markets will be turned to the ECB's final decision regarding the monetary policy. This is the main event of the day, which will allow investors to understand the actions of the European regulator in the near future.

What will be the outcome of the ECB meeting?

Markets do not expect the European Central Bank to finalize a decision on changes in monetary policy changes. All interest rates, as well as previously adopted stimulus programs, are expected to remain unchanged. The main thing we should look forward to is the speech of ECB's head, C. Lagarde. It will be expected to assess the state of the region's economy, how stable it is in the current difficult times, and whether the regulator can go for expanded stimulating measures if the situation worsens. They will also want to hear from her an assessment of the prospects for ending the epic called Brexit.

How will the euro react to the ECB's monetary policy decision?

We believe that the decision to leave all the key points in monetary policy, as well as possible cautious optimism in Lagarde's speech, will support the Euro currency. However, if it unexpectedly touches on the topic of its high value compared to other world currencies, which hinders the competition of European goods on world markets, this will be a negative signal for the Euro exchange rate and it may come under pressure. Yet, we are inclined to believe that the ECB President will not talk about the "high cost" of the Euro, but will focus on stabilizing the economic situation in the Euro area.

Given this scenario, we can say that the euro will receive support. The demand for company shares will also grow in the wake of the renewed pullback up in the global stock markets.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair found support at 1.1760 and is recovering on the wave of expectations for a generally positive assessment of the economic situation from Lagarde in the Euro area. Thus, we believe that the pair has every chance to continue local growth to 1.1900 after crossing the level of 1.1840.

The EUR/GBP pair may receive support following the ECB meeting and continue the upward trend towards 0.9145, if it remains above the level of 0.9065.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for the USD/JPY pair

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Yen has been trading in a narrowing range for quite some time now, but yesterday, the quote was able to break out of the upper limit, the cause of which is the pin bar pattern that has captured buy stop orders over the past few days.

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To fully escape the triangle, as well as raise USD / JPY in the market, use the pin bar as pivot, and then place profit at 107.

Profitability for this strategy is 3:1.

Of course, controlling the risks should not be left out, so as to avoid any losses.

Best of luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/10/20

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The EUR/USD pair, moving along a downward course from the resistance level of 1.2000, declined to the area of the local low - 1.1754 (1.1750) on August 21, where the price naturally rebounded. Now, returning to the level of 1.1800 indicates a local change in the structure of the downward move. And while sellers have the opportunity to reverse the quote, the best entry point is below 1.1750.

An alternative scenario of market development will be considered if the price is consolidated above trend line No. 1 (area 1.1865), which may be triggered by the information background.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair makes a stable profit, where the forecast of a downward development from the high (1.3513) of 2019 made it possible to consistently go through the values of 1.3300; 1.3100; 1.3000 and 1.2885.

As a result, more than 550 points of the move are without a pullback and correction, where the level of 1.2885 was the first point for buyers who managed to pull back the pound.

At the moment, there is a narrow amplitude fluctuation along the level of 1.3000 (1.2990/1.3022), which makes it possible for traders to make money on local operations, working by the method of breaking through the established boundaries.

Trading recommendations:

- Buying a pair is considered if the price consolidates above 1.3025, with the prospect of moving to 1.3065-1.3100

- Selling a pair is considered if the price consolidates below 1.2990, with the prospect of moving to 1.2950-1.2885.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 10, 2020

The pair traded downward on Wednesday and tested the support level 1.1775 (white thick line). After this, the price went up. Today, the upward trend may continue. Economic calendar news for the euro is expected at 11:45, 12:30, and 17:00 UTC, and for the dollar at 12:30 and 15:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move upward from the level of 1.1805 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move upward with the next target at the upper fractal at 1.2012 (red dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the market may continue to move upward from the level of 1.1805 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line).

Another possible scenario is from the level of 1.1805 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may continue to move upward with the target of 1.1819 - a 21 EMA (black thin line). If this level is tested, the price may move downward with the target at the support level 1.1775 (white thick line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD. All eyes on the US Senate

The Australian dollar, paired with the US currency, has determined a price niche for itself, within which it has been trading for a week. Following several unsuccessful attempts to conquer the 74th price level, the "Aussie" does not leave the area of the 72nd figure, alternately pushing off the boundaries of the 100-point price corridor. By itself, the Australian dollar does not have arguments for a Northern breakout, so it has no choice but to focus on the behavior of the greenback, which, in turn, is also torn apart by contradictions. The US dollar index similarly trades in a range when the growth phase is replaced by a decline phase. The indicator has not left the 92.1-93.5 corridor since the beginning of August, reflecting the general vulnerability of the US currency.Traders are in "waiting mode," anticipating an informational impulse, which may be tomorrow's inflation release.

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The "Aussie," in the meantime, is reacting to secondary statistics and political events. As a result, during the Asian session on Thursday, one of the inflation indicators was published in Australia. From the Australian consumers, we have learned the assessment of the inflation outlook. This indicator speaks more about trends, and is a good indicator of current household sentiment towards inflation. In September, this index fell to 3.1%, showing a negative trend. It is worth recalling that the Australian consumer price index in quarterly terms for the first time since the spring of 2016 collapsed into a negative area - however, not to the forecast -2%, but to -1.9%. In annual terms, the indicator was also below zero: the indicator came out at -0.3%.According to today's release, inflation in Australia will continue to be a "weak link," putting pressure on the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), and, accordingly, on the "Aussie."

Despite reacting phlegmatically to today's release, the Australian dollar still retreated from yesterday's highs (0.7289). There was a sluggish trade in a narrow price range during the Asian session on Thursday. Although bearish sentiment prevailed for the pair, the southern momentum was too weak to open deals. Obviously, the market is frozen in anticipation of US events, and we are not just talking about tomorrow's inflation release.

This day, the US Senate must consider a bill to provide a package of assistance in the fight against the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. And this bill is the fifth in a row. Back in May, the Democrats introduced their three-trillion-dollar bill and it was even passed in the House of Representatives, the Lower house of Congress, where representatives of the Democratic party control the majority. However, Republicans who control the Upper house of Congress (the Senate) refused to support the initiative of the Democrats, considering it too costly. This idea was opposed by the White house and personally by Donald trump, who promised to veto the law if it is still supported by Congressmen.

Now, the situation is mirrored. The Republicans have proposed their own version of the bill (not the first one), the volume of which is "only" 500 billion dollars. This project will provide funding for unemployment insurance, childcare, coronavirus testing, and claims protection from lawsuits for companies, schools, and churches working in the pandemic.

The Representatives of the Democratic party, who agreed to lower the spending bar from three to two trillion dollars during negotiations on their bill, criticized the 500-billion Republican aid package. Senate minority leader Charles Schumer, a Democrat, and house speaker Nancy Pelosi immediately declared that the Republican bill "is a failure in advance and unpromising." This means that the proposed document will not pass the millstone of the Lower house of Congress.

But during today's meeting, it may become clear that not all Republicans support the initiative of their fellow party members. This factor can play against the US currency today. According to various estimates, about two dozen Republican senators do not support the allocation of any additional funds to combat the consequences of the coronavirus crisis.

If the bill fails, including through the fault of Republicans, the greenback may come under pressure. Anticipating such a situation, Mitch McConnell can withdraw this draft law by removing it from the vote. But this decision will not be in favor of greenback, as the de facto Republicans admit their defeat.

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However, it should be essentially noted that the "political factor" will have a short-term impact on the dynamics of dollar pairs. All the attention of traders tomorrow will be focused on the publication of data on the growth of inflation in the United States. Once this is released, the greenback movement vector in the medium term will be determined.

As for the AUD / USD pair, with a "smooth" (not impulsive) approach to the base of the 72nd figure, we can consider longs with the first goal of 0.7301 (the Conversion line on the daily chart). If we consider a longer-term period, we can talk about a more ambitious goal - 0.7380 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe). But this target will only be achieved if US inflation disappoints foreign exchange market traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 10? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued to correct last Thursday night. As we promised in the previous article, after we devoted some time to analyze the technical picture, a new downward channel appeared, which simply overlaps the previous sideways channel. As we have already mentioned in recent days, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade rather indistinctly, so at this time it is very difficult to draw an unambiguous conclusion about which trend the price is in. Therefore, at the moment we propose to focus on the new downward channel (unless, of course, the price leaves this area in the next few hours). Be that as it may, but a rebound from the upper border of this channel can provoke the price to move down towards the area around 1.1740. If the price overcomes the channel, then it can continue to go up to the upper border of the 1.17-1.19 side channel, which is where the pair has been trading in for a month and a half. This approximate situation can be obtained on Thursday morning.

Novice traders will have something to pay attention to on September 10. The European Central Bank's decision on monetary policy will be released today. We already addressed what decisions it can make in last night's evening article. For now, let's just briefly recall that rates are unlikely to be raised or lowered, so the most interesting thing is whether the ECB will expand one of the quantitative stimulus programs. Simply put, will the ECB decide to inject even more money into the EU economy by buying out securities? If so, the euro could fall today, wherever it is in the relatively new downward channel. Also, if the accompanying ECB statement contains hints of a weak economy or a willingness to expand QE and PEPP programs during 2020, it will also be a bearish factor for traders. We can expect the ECB President Christine Lagarde to deliver a speech in the evening, who, in turn, will also talk about economics and monetary policy. And the more dovish her rhetoric is, the bigger chances for the euro to fall. The most inconvenient thing for novice traders today is the combination of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. For example, it is possible for quotes to go above the downward channel, thus showing a willingness to continue moving up, but in case Lagarde's rhetoric or the ECB's decisions turn out to be extremely weak, then this will make the pair fall. There are no important publications or events scheduled in the United States for today.

Possible scenarios for September 10:

1) Novice traders are still not recommended to consider buy positions at this time. However, if the price settles above the downward channel, then the trend will change to one that is upward and it will be possible to open long positions with targets at 1.1877 and 1.1903. We remind you that there might be sharp price reversals during the publication of the ECB decisions and Christine Lagarde's speech, so it is recommended to trade with increased caution.

2) Sell positions still look more attractive now, only because a new downward channel has emerged. Thus, a rebound in quotes from its upper line or a downward reversal of the MACD indicator will be signals to open short positions with targets at 1.1759 and 1.1740.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB to revise previous inflation forecasts

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Board member Isabel Schnabel had previously announced that the ECB calculated Europe's economic development since June, as a result of which the bank decided to maintain its "base level", indicating their strong confidence on economic recovery.

Such led to a sharp drop in dollar in the market, however, some analysts believe the opposite and expect the US dollar to grow against the European currency.

Nonetheless, the ECB is expected to slightly revise its inflation forecasts, especially since data from the eurozone, as well as analysis of certain officials, are very positive.

In addition, GDP for the current year is set to increase, and private consumption will improve to much higher than expected.

The report on this will be published today ahead of the ECB's monetary policy meeting.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 10. ECB meeting to determine the euro's direction. COT reports. Bulls

To open long positions on EUR.USD, you need:

Several signals to enter the market appeared yesterday afternoon. If you remember my forecast, I recommended opening long positions when a false breakout forms in the support area of 1.1756, which happened. The 5-minute chart clearly shows how, after the bears' several unsuccessful attempts to push through 1.1756, the pair returns to this level, afterwards a large rise occurs. But even if you did not have time to enter buy positions on this signal, an excellent point appeared for opening long positions after a breakout and consolidating above the resistance of 1.1791. Being able to return and test this level from top to bottom continued the upward correction in the pair. I recommended selling immediately on a rebound from the resistance of 1.1825, which allowed us to take around 20 points from the market. At the moment, euro buyers need to break through and settle above the 1.1825 level, which creates a signal to open long positions in the hopes of rising to a high of 1.1863, where I recommend taking profits. A breakthrough of this range will entirely depend on the European Central Bank's decision on monetary policy. Strong bullish momentum and the breakout of 1.1863 would open a direct path to the highs of 1.1905 and 1.1949. If the EUR/USD pair is under pressure in the morning, then I recommend returning to long positions after a correction and a false breakout in the support area of 1.1791, where the moving averages are now playing on the side of buyers. In the absence of activity at this level, it is best to postpone purchases until the low of 1.1756 has been updated, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. In case the euro tumbles down after the ECB announces its decision on interest rates, I recommend waiting for an update of the larger lows of 1.1714 and 1.1648 and buy euros from there.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 1 showed a decrease in long non-commercial positions from 262,061 to 250,867, while short non-commercial positions increased from 50,309 to 54,130. The euro rose to new annual highs and the bulls' inability to break through the area above the 20th figure, which we clearly saw at the beginning of this month, led to a significant closure of long positions and profit taking by traders as well as a build-up of short ones. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position slightly decreased and reached 196,747, against 211,752 a week earlier. However, any major decline in the euro will be seen by traders as a good level to build up long positions in the medium term.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The bears will count on the ECB to make changes in the monetary policy, or at least hints to do so in the near future, which will weaken the euro's position. Forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1825 in the first half of the day will be the first signal for the euro to break through in order to return to 1.1791 at the middle of the side channel. Settling below this level will increase the pressure on the pair, which will lead to a retest of the lower limit of the 1.1756 channel, its breakout will completely depend on the ECB's decisions and forecasts. Consolidating below this range would open a direct road to the lows of 1.1714 and 1.1648. If the bulls continue to push the pair up and the bears can not cope with protecting resistance at 1.1825, then it is best not to rush to sell, but wait until the 1.1863 high has been updated and a false breakout forms there, or you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the larger resistance at 1.1905, counting on correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an upward correction for the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.1830 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1755 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCHF Control Zones 10.09.20

The fall yesterday was the reason for the formation of insignificant movement of the daily level. The probability of closing below today's movement has increased significantly for the week. The closing of trading below the WCZ 1/4 0.9133-0.9126 indicates an increase in the probability of a downward movement up to 70%. The fall target is the wcz 1/2 0.9067-0.9053.

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It is important to note that the movement going up is not complete so the test of the lower wcz 1/2 can be the starting point of resuming growth. It indicates the need to record sales during the support test.

If today's closing will go above the opening, an alternative accumulation model will be developed. This will lead to the formation of a flute which will allow you to get more favorable prices for the sale of the instrument.

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Day Control Zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly Control Zone. An area formed by important marks of the futures market that changes several times a year.

Monthly Control Zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ripple Price Movement On Sept 10, 2020.

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On the 4-hour chart, ripple is moving in a downslope channel. The bias is still bearish. After it broke out and closed above the 0.2413 level, ripple may rise and reach the 0.2550-0.2553 levels. This scenario is unlikely to occur if it declines and closes bellow the 0.2280 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Price Movement On Sept 10, 2020.

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After the Kiwi broke out and closed above the 1.3161 level. The pair may try to reach the 1.3193 - 1.3259 levels. On the 4-hour chart, USD/CAD is moving in a downslope channel. Please pay attention to the 1.3142 level. If the pair breaks through this level, it will not resume the upward movement.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 10, 2020

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GBP/JPY made a second and deeper decline to the low of 136.71 before taking off as expected. The break above minor resistance at 137.83 was the first good indication that red wave iv/ has completed, while a break above resistance at 138.39 will confirm the corrective low and the on-set of a new impulsive rally.

Resistance at 138.39 has only been tested, but we feel comfortable that this resistance will be broken on the next attempt and a rally higher to the next solid resistance at 140.10 is in the cards.

R3: 139.44

R2: 138.90

R1: 138.39

Pivot: 138.17

S1: 137.78

S2: 137.43

S3: 137.13

Trading recommendation:

We bought GBP at 137.45 and we will raise our stop to 136.65

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 10, 2020

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EUR/JPY attempted to break just below 124.38 but failed at 124.42. Then it rose as we expected to break above minor resistance at 125.04 confirming that wave C/ and 2/ has completed and wave 3/ higher to at least 129.38 and likely higher to 135.45 now is in motion.

In the short-term, we should expect more upside pressure towards 126.01 before the first more substantial correction sets in, but the main direction now is to the upside, both the short-term and long-term trend and only buying opportunities should be explored.

R3: 126.01

R2: 125.79

R1: 125.53

Pivot: 125.35

S1: 125.20

S2: 125.04

S3: 124.80

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.41 and we will raise our stop to 124.35.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for USD/JPY on 09/10/20

The trading plan for this week implies holding purchases that were opened earlier and consolidating them at the WCZ 1/2 106.89-106.73. If the specified zone is reached, a large supply and the resumption of the downward movement will be very likely. However, working within the flat may be delayed for the whole September.

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Large players are not interested in buying and selling the instrument this week, which prevents us from leaving the local accumulation zone.

An alternative pattern will be developed if today's trading closes below yesterday's. This will open the way for the pair to fall to the lower WCZ 1/2 105.43-105.28. Moreover, this pattern is equivalent to an upward one, so you need to transfer purchases opened earlier to breakeven.

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DCZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

WCZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

MCZ- monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2020

EUR/USD

So we are approaching the ECB meeting, and as is almost always the case, from a technical point of view, the euro approached this event in a neutral stance. At the same time, the financial media carefully presented various opinions about the central bank's upcoming assessment of economic prospects. If the ECB really intends to lower the euro (protect the 1.20 level), which is already rumored since the central bank suggested it, then ECB President Christine Lagarde only has verbal tools, up to threats to lower the rate again "if the situation worsens".

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The daily chart shows that the price stopped at the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator is in the lower area. As before, we are waiting for the price to break through, but this may happen after spikes in both directions, since major players are very eager to take positions accumulated before such an intriguing ECB meeting.

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The four-hour chart shows the price in the 1.1750-1.1855 range indicated earlier. Not strong, but a double convergence on the Marlin oscillator with the signal line entering the zone of positive values indicates a more probable primary price surge. Of course, it is not limited to the 1.1855 level. There is a small accumulation zone in the 1.1925 area.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 10, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose by 58 points yesterday while the US dollar weakened, having reached the resistance of the MACD line on the daily chart. It has finished retesting the line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves down from the border of the growth area. We are waiting for the price to fall to the previously designated target of 0.7110 - to the low on August 12.

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Convergence with the Marlin oscillator has been reached on the four-hour chart, while the price was seen in the accumulation range of the first days of September, and then it came out of it to fall. We expect the Australian currency to weaken in the long term.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 10, 2020

USD/JPY

Uncertainty regarding the Japanese yen due to external pressure remains, but the price resolutely resists. Yesterday, this pressure not only eased, but also changed to support – the US stock index S&P 500 increased by 2.01%, while the tech-driven Nasdaq was up 2.71%. Today, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index is adding 0.54%. Japan's core machinery orders increased by 6.3% in July against the forecast of 2.0%.

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At the moment, the daily chart shows that the price is clamped by the balance indicator lines (below) and the MACD indicator lines (above). The Marlin oscillator has not left the growth zone in the last ten sessions. We are waiting for the price to overcome the MACD line and reach the first goal of 106.55. Going above the level opens the second goal of 107.00.

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The price settled at the bottom of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. The Marlin signal line moves along the neutral band, but still has a positive value. We are waiting for the USD/JPY pair to experience long term growth.

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Control zones NZD USD 10/09/2020

Today, the pair is testing the WCZ 1/2 0.6680-0.6673. This makes it possible to consider sales of the instrument if the "absorption" pattern is formed at least below the M30 level. Movement in the downward direction was the main one in the first week of September. Today's test will be decisive for the downward momentum.

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The fall in the first half of the month led to a return of the price to the level of the August opening. Further decline will lead to the formation of the "absorption" pattern of the monthly level.

To cancel the downward movement and form a growth model, it will be necessary to close today's trading above the WCZ 1/2. This will open the way for further strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. The growth target will be the WCZ 0.6763-0.6748.

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DCZ-day control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

WCZ - weekly control zone. The area formed an important marker of the future market which changes several times a year.

MCZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for USD/CAD on 10/09/2020

The USD / CAD pair tested the WCZ 1/2 1.3142-1.3130 today, which made it possible to enter a long position. It is worth noting that the growth of the last two weeks has created the conditions for the formation of a reversal model of the older period. The first goal of the upward movement is the maximum of the current week.

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The growth on September 8 is crucial for the upward movement. Until it is absorbed, the probability of continued growth is 70%.

To break the upward momentum, today's trading will need to close below the WCZ 1/2. This will indicate the need to cancel purchases. The search for favorable sales prices will become the basis of the plan tomorrow. The target of the downward movement will be the weekly control zone 1.3026-1.3004.

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DCZ - daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

WCZ - weekly control zone. A zone formed by important marks of the futures market that change several times a year.

MCZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 10. London risks ruining relations with the European Union and America.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) – downward.

CCI: -98.7379

During the last trading day, the British pound fell to the level of 1.2884. Thus, in seven working days, the pound fell against the dollar by almost 6 cents. The reason for this collapse was mainly news from the UK. First, it became known that the next stage of negotiations failed, then Boris Johnson said that the negotiations should be completed by October 15, and the UK is ready to leave the EU without a deal. In the end, the media received information from the British government circles that London is going to abandon certain provisions in the agreements with the EU that determine the functioning of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. All these events and news not only reduced the probability of signing at least some agreement between Brussels and London to almost zero but also significantly increased the likelihood that relations between the bloc and the Kingdom will be extremely difficult in the future. Some analysts even suggested that in 2021, the countries may start their own trade war, since if London goes to a direct violation of previously reached agreements, Brussels may apply sanctions against the UK.

The "UK internal market bill" is the name of the document that is due to be published today, and members of the British Parliament will vote for it next week. This document deals with the protocol for Northern Ireland and the procedure for customs checks at the border between British Ireland and European Ireland. Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis said the new regulations were designed to "guarantee businesses and individuals unfettered access to the UK market". According to Lewis, this law will "specifically and restrictively" contradict the agreement between the EU and Britain, which was reached last year.

Representatives of the European Union have already strongly criticized London's actions. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that London will have to adhere to all the agreements that were reached earlier. European Parliament President David Sassoli said any attempt to change the agreement unilaterally would have serious consequences. Also condemned the unlawful actions of the London and ECB chief Christine Lagarde. However, in principle, something like this could be expected from the government of Boris Johnson. His main task really was to complete the Brexit procedure and it seems that the British Prime Minister did not play quite fair. At least, this conclusion suggests itself, based on recent events. The issue of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland was one of the most acute, since the Belfast Agreement of 1998, which ended 30 years of war on the island of Ireland, just implied the absence of a border between the two states. However, with the UK's withdrawal from the EU, the border between these states was bound to appear. Thus, Boris Johnson, most likely, promised the EU leaders everything so that the Brexit procedure does not stall once again, and now will try to circumvent or violate some of the provisions of that agreement in order to prevent a new civil war on the island.

The most interesting thing is that London's actions are not approved only in the European Union. Wales and Scotland said the new bill threatens the unity of the United Kingdom and takes away powers from them. Authorities in Wales and Scotland fear the new law will limit their power. Currently, the parliaments and governments of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales are semi-autonomous. This is the status that the above-mentioned countries are afraid of losing.

In addition, representatives of the US Democratic Party warned London that if Joe Biden becomes US president, the violation of the Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland will significantly complicate the process of agreeing and signing a free trade agreement between the States and the UK. Joe Biden is a native of Ireland and honors the Belfast Agreement between Britain and Northern Ireland, which is guaranteed by America. Thus, London's actions can not only spoil relations with the European Union but also with America, especially if Joe Biden wins the election, which is what everything is going for. However, let's not get ahead of ourselves. First, you need to wait for the official publication of the new bill and assess how much it violates previous agreements with the EU. Next, you will need to wait for the vote and see if it will be accepted at all. And after that, we will have to wait for a response from the United States and the European Union. It is noteworthy that more recently, Boris Johnson actively criticized China, which violates the agreement with the UK regarding the status of Hong Kong, which until 2047 was supposed to remain completely autonomous from the Chinese government unit. However, as we can see, London itself can easily violate the principles of international law, if it is profitable for it. Boris Johnson himself has not yet commented on the new bill.

As for the pound and its prospects, we believe that the general fundamental background from the UK may continue to contribute to the fall of its quotes. However, do not forget that the situation in America is much worse now. For example, against the euro, the US dollar is not growing at all. Thus, the fall of the British currency may be limited. In fact, until there are new messages from the European Union, from which it becomes clear what awaits the UK if it violates the previously reached agreement, the British currency should no longer become cheaper. At this time, even an upward pullback has begun, and both linear regression channels continue to be directed upwards. Thus, although the fall was strong and rapid, it does not mean that it will continue. Although the general situation in the UK contributes to this.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 144 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, September 10, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2846 and 1.3134. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate the end of the upward correction within the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2878

S3 – 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3000

R2 – 1.3062

R3 – 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a round of corrective movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to resume trading on the downside with the targets of 1.2939 and 1.2878 when the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with the first target of 1.3245 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line, which is not expected in the near future.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 10. What to expect from the ECB meeting?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -44.2084

For the third trading day of the week, the EUR/USD pair was again held in absolutely calm trading with low volatility. In the American trading session, the markets "recovered" a little and began to trade more actively. We would like to assume that the sharp decline in the US currency in the afternoon was triggered by some fundamental or macroeconomic events. However, in practice, everything is much simpler. The price once again approached the lower border of the side channel 1.17-1.19, from which it has been constantly rebounding in the last month and a half. This time, the pair's quotes did not even fall to the level of 1.1700, and the upward turn occurred around 1.1750. Thus, the bears once again showed their extreme weakness, and the US currency still does not find any reason to strengthen in a pair with the euro.

On Thursday, September 10, it is planned to summarize the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank. This event is always of interest to market participants, as there are only 8 such meetings a year. Now that the whole world is covered by the coronavirus pandemic, each meeting of the regulator is of particular interest. After all, no one will deny that the pandemic has had a huge impact on the economy of all countries of the world. By the way, it was the European Central Bank that reacted the least to the pandemic and the crisis it caused. At least, the Central Bank of the European Union has not lowered the key rate yet, unlike the Fed and many other central banks. Although, of course, an assumption should also be made here, since the ECB rate was negative even without the pandemic (-0.5%).

However, questions in the European Union arise recently on monetary policy and the state of the economy. ECB economists are seriously concerned about the growth of the European currency in the past few months and believe that it can have a very negative impact on the already struggling economy. This is what the ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, said last week. Other members of the ECB's Board of Directors also believe that a strong euro will hinder EU exports, lead to even lower prices (negative inflation) and increase the need to apply additional monetary incentives. Further growth of the euro may significantly slow down the economic recovery of the entire European Union. ECB representatives also believe that the revision of the Fed's attitude to inflation is a "dovish" factor, due to which the US dollar may continue to fall. In addition, the demand for the euro may increase in the future since markets may consider the higher interest rates in the Eurozone "in structural terms". The European Union's inflation rate continues to decline and the latest report showed that prices in the European Union decreased by 0.2% compared to August of the previous year. In fact, this is deflation. Moreover, weak inflation will severely slow down economic growth and recovery. Thus, the members of the ECB Board of Directors continue to "keep their finger on the pulse" and are ready to reconsider their attitude to inflation in the near future, as well as take the necessary additional measures to stimulate the economy. Thus, most economists believe that the ECB in 2020 will decide to further expand the quantitative stimulus program or the program to counter the pandemic (PEPP). These measures will be aimed at supporting the economy and reducing the euro exchange rate in the foreign exchange market.

What does all this mean for the euro currency and what are its prospects? The outlook for the euro remains very positive since markets persistently do not want to get rid of this currency. In the UK, there is Brexit, Boris Johnson, and failed negotiations with the European Union, which puts pressure on the pound. Meanwhile, there is nothing like this in the European Union. The EU's macroeconomic indicators leave much to be desired, however, they are even worse in the States. In addition, the "coronavirus epidemic" is still raging in the United States (although the incidence rates have more than halved in recent weeks), the political crisis persists, and the conflict with China persists, which is completely unclear how it can end. Most importantly, the country continues to move towards elections, which are less than two months away. Further, the closer a country gets to an election, the more apprehensive international investors are. We can't say unequivocally that the figure of Donald Trump is bad for America, and Joe Biden is good. However, the results of the presidential term of Donald Trump are such that not everyone will want to vote for him. However, according to many political analysts, Trump should not have won in 2016 either. It is possible that in the 2020 elections, he and his team will do everything possible and impossible just to keep power in their hands. We have repeatedly written that Trump may not recognize the election results if he loses. He may claim that the results are falsified in some states, which will lead to lawsuits, new votes, and recounts. In general, we believe that Trump will not just leave the White House. In other words, the current situation in America is completely unclear. And investors don't like uncertainty. Moreover, it is not at all clear what will happen to major American manufacturers whose production is located outside of America if Trump retains his post. The US leader has already promised that he will put pressure on American companies, especially those that create jobs in the camp of the main enemy of the US - China. Trump is going to seek the return of production facilities to the United States, and if companies refuse, he is going to impose taxes and duties on their products. Needless to say, almost all major manufacturing companies in America have factories in China, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc. Because labor costs in these countries are cheap. Accordingly, many people may suffer, which will be reflected in the US stock indices. And international investors are just interested in investing in government bonds and company shares. US bond yields have been falling recently, and Trump may hunt down American companies and create a lot of problems for them... Therefore, at this time, the position of the euro currency looks much more stable.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 10 is 68 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1733 and 1.1869. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back downward will signal the completion of an upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

R3 – 1.2085

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started to adjust and worked as part of the moving correction. Thus, it is recommended to trade lower today with targets of 1.1733 and 1.1719 if the pair bounces off the moving average line. If the price is fixed above the moving average, it is recommended to open long positions with a target of 1.1963.

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