Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 9? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair went down another 20 points during Wednesday night trading, after which a kind of upward correction began. Nevertheless, the pair's quotes still managed to gain a foothold below the side channel of 1.1790-1.1865, so now novice traders are recommended to consider trading down again. At the moment, the MACD indicator has moved up, so we recommend that you wait for its reversal back down. In general, there has even been a kind of downward trend in the last two days, very weak, but still a trend. We have already used the wording "some kind of similarity" twice because it is very difficult to describe the pair's entire movement in the last week in any concrete way. It seems that signs of a trend movement appear from time to time, but at the same time, side channels also regularly keep the price within themselves. We remind novice traders that the pair has been mainly trading in the range of 1.1700-1.1900 for the last month and a half. Thus, by and large, the price is also in a side channel of 200 points wide for a month and a half.

Novice traders have nothing to pay attention to on September 9, since there are no planned macroeconomic data as of now. The fact that the pair left the small sideways channel works in favor of the US currency, which has a good chance of strengthening towards $1.17. However, the markets are mainly focusing on the British pound, for which there is much more news and events. Therefore, traders also have the right to expect rather weak movements without a pronounced trend today. Results of the European Central Bank meeting and a press conference by ECB President Christine Lagarde will be held tomorrow. These events are extremely important, as the monetary policy of the entire European Union may be changed. Let us recall that monetary policy is a set of instruments that the central bank uses to regulate economic processes. The ECB is unlikely to change rates, but it may well announce a new expansion of the PEPP program (a program to repurchase bonds from the open market in order to fill the economy with cash and thus stimulate it to growth). In addition, many interesting things can be heard from Lagarde's speech. The ECB president can share with the markets the future plans of the central bank, economic forecasts for the next two years, as well as tell how the economy is recovering and what to expect in the near future.

Possible scenarios for September 9:

1) We generally recommend novice traders to not consider buy positions at this time, since the pair has settled below the upward trend line, so the trend is leaning more on the downside. There was also no rebound from the lower line of the side channel of 1.1790-1.1865. Therefore, at this time, there is not a single technical pattern that supports the upward movement.

2) Sell positions still look more relevant now. The price has overcome the side channel, so now we can consider short positions. However, to do this, you need to wait for the MACD indicator to move down, and then resume trading down with the targets at 1.1752, 1.1729 and 1.1700. However, volatility at this time remains weak, even very weak, and with such volatility the price is unlikely able to reach 1.1700 today or tomorrow. This point must be taken into account when opening any positions.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Panic covers the markets again due to very short recovery; Overview USD, CAD, and JPY

The third consecutive trading session in the US stock markets ended with a decline and there is more reason to believe that the market is in a bearish turn. On the other hand, the real reason for the sales on Tuesday was the reaction to Trump's speech, in which he announced his intention to abandon the services of American companies that outsource their contracts to China. Stocks of technology companies were the first to react with a drop, but then all markets joined the sell-off.

Following the stock indices, oil also declined. Crude oil purchases from China have been slowing since July, Saudi Aramco slashed official selling prices for most grades of crude for the US, Asia and Northwest Europe over the weekend, and Fitch cut its long-term forecast for oil prices.

As a result, commodity currencies decreased and the demand for defensive assets increased. Today, sales are likely to continue, since there is no positive news yet capable of stopping a new wave. If panic will not cover the markets, then at least tension can be expected.

USD/CAD

Today, the Bank of Canada will hold a meeting on monetary policy. Most experts do not expect any significant changes, which in general, should be viewed as a bullish factor for the Canadian currency amid a likely weakening of the Fed's position and, as a result of this weakening, a change in the yield spread.

At the same time, there are some factors that can play a negative role. The labor market report for August turned out to be worse than in the USA, and in case of a further decline in oil prices, a sale of risky assets is inevitable.

Technically, USDCAD's upward pullback was long expected, as the spot price on the wave of positive expectations went far down, breaking away from the fair price level. The CAD position on CME is bearish, the net short position is 2.067 billion, and there is a high probability of forming a base and continuing growth.

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Yesterday, the USD/CAD pair moved above the trend line, which began its formation in March 2020. If today's trading closes above 1.32 after the meeting of the Bank of Canada, then the chances that a long-term bottom formed around 1.30 will increase significantly, and the probability of continued growth will increase. The nearest resistance is 1.3310/30, moving above this range will mean a bullish reversal.

USD/JPY

In view of growing demand for defensive assets, yen's stability is doubtful again, since it is simultaneously undergoing both economic and political pressure.

The Cabinet of Ministers published the second preliminary estimate of GDP for Q2 (April - June) 2020. Japan's real GDP was revised downwards from -7.8% q / q (-27.8% y/y) in preliminary estimates to - 7.9% qoq (-28.1% y/y), with 3% of the fall due to external factors and 4.9% due to a drop in domestic demand. In other words, even a significant slowdown in world trade, which led to a fall in the global economy, was not as significant as the fall in domestic demand, which indicates the likelihood of a return to deflation in the very near future.

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Japan will be entering a new era after Abe leaves, and the fight for the post of Prime Minister will begin. The opposition agrees that the consumption tax rate should be reduced to zero until inflation rises to 2%. But as deflationary pressures increase, the tax may remain at zero indefinitely. Such ideas indicate that the Japanese financial authorities are close to completely exhausting any opportunities to influence consumer demand.

The net long position on the yen increased by 718 million during the reporting period. It can be seen that the bullish advantage is clear, but the settlement price is still higher than the spot price, since just until yesterday, protective assets were under pressure.

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The yen gets a chance to strengthen before the threat of a panic wave, which will make the movement to the support of 105.10/20 more likely. If the sales take a collapse, the target will be the level of 103.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for gold

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Gold bounced off from its monthly lows yesterday and formed a double top on the daily chart.

To continue this bullish trend in the market, it is best to trade long positions, following Elliott Wave theory included in the scheme below:

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As of the moment, there are three wave patterns in gold, with which wave "A" is yesterday's long impulse. What we need to work now is a 50% pullback from the current level, as such has a 1:1 ratio for profit. In addition, it follows the classic and trusted Price Action and Stop Hunting strategies. However, of course, we should not forget to control the risks in order to avoid reducing or losing profit.

Best of luck to us!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 9, 2020

The pair traded downward on Tuesday and tested the support level of 1.2981 (black bold line). Today the price may continue to move down. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:00 and 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move downward from the level of 1.2983 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.2866 - a 50.0% pullback level (red dotted line). In case of testing this level, the price may move upward with the target of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward from the level of 1.2983 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.2866 - a 50.0% pullback level (red dotted line). In case of testing this level, the price may move upward with the target of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is from the level of 1.2983 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) the price may begin to move upwards with the target of 1.3209 - an 85.4% pullback level (blue dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 9, 2020

The pair traded downward on Tuesday almost testing the lower boundary of the Bollinger line indicator at 1.1753 (blue dashed line). Today the price may continue to move down. No news is expected on the economic calendar.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move downward from the level of 1.1779 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the support level of 1.1688 (black bold line). If this level is tested, the price may begin to move upward with the target of 1.1823 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward with the target at the support level of 1.1688 (black bold line). If this level is tested, the price may begin to move upward with the target of 1.1823 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is upon reaching the support level of 1.1688 (black bold line), the price may continue to move downward with the next target of 1.1590 - a 50% pullback level (red dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Saudi lowers oil prices in the market

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Oil drops in price as Saudi Arabia, the world's main oil supplier, lowered its cost in an effort to prop up market demand.

"Supply is growing but the demand is falling, " commented Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities. "The economic laws of survival are being violated on both sides," he added.

The sell-off came after Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, cut the official price of oil for Asia and the US. However, having such a scenario, that is, reducing price to attract buyers, is never a good sign.

"The oil industry is getting very grim as revised baselines for a return to pre-pandemic demand continue to be pushed back," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. "WTI will not stabilize until panic in the stock market dies down, which could mean that prices will remain at $ 30 in the next couple of weeks," he said.

In addition, investors are concerned about the deteriorating relationship between United States and China. On Monday, US President Trump said that he plans to end US' dependence on China and its industry, threatening to punish companies relocating jobs outside of the US, and preventing those that are operating in China from obtaining government contracts.

Unfortunately, these actions could further reduce the demand for oil due to reduced trading activity between economic superpowers.

"Demand remains a key challenge for the market," said Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING. "With China restocking in previous months, there are currently no significant new purchases on the market from China," he noted.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD. The failed idea of the Republicans and the rise of a new conflict between Australia and China

Yesterday, the Australian dollar paired with the US currency experienced one of the most unfortunate days in recent times, losing almost 100 points in a day. Marking a high of 0.7311, the Aussie ended Tuesday's trading session at 0.7212. This is the strongest intraday decline rate in the last three months. The southern dynamics of AUD/USD was primarily due to the strengthening of the US currency. But the Australian dollar also fell in price across the market due to another escalation of the political conflict between Australia and China. At the moment, the pair is frozen at the base of the 72nd figure, although from a technical point of view, the southern impulse has a "power reserve" for another hundred points down, that is, to the level of 0.7110. Whether the AUD/USD bears will take advantage of this opportunity is an open question.

By and large, the US dollar has been demonstrating multidirectional dynamics lately. Since the beginning of August, the dollar index has fluctuated in a wide range - it alternately decreases to the base of the 92nd figure, then rises to the borders of the 94th level. The current growth is associated with the beginning of the political season in the States - the Congressmen of the Senate and House of Representatives returned from the summer holidays.

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Last day, it became known that the senators will finally consider the next version of the bill on providing additional assistance to the US economy this coming Thursday, that is tomorrow. This was reported not by anyone, but by the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell. Let me remind you that such bills have been under discussion since mid-July. Democrats and Republicans could not come to a common opinion after weeks of negotiations - each remained unconvinced. The Representatives of the Democratic party insist on increasing the amount of aid "at least" to two trillion dollars (previously it was about three trillion), while the White house and most Republicans insist on their own version, which currently involves the allocation of 500 billion. Negotiations reached an impasse in mid-August, so the current optimism of dollar bulls does not quite match the real picture. It is noteworthy that the previous bill of the Trump administration assumed the allocation of 1 trillion - according to the updated version of the document, Republicans propose to allocate half as much to fight the casualties of COVID-19 pandemic.

This version of the bill is not supported by some Republicans, not to mention the representatives of Democrats. According to American experts, the proposed document will not pass even the stage of procedural voting in the upper house of Congress. This is confirmed by the position of prominent congressmen. So, the leader of the Senate minority Charles Schumer and the speaker of the House of representatives Nancy Pelosi (the lower house of Congress is controlled by Democrats) have already declared that the Republican bill "is a failure in advance and unpromising." In addition, according to various estimates, about two dozen senators from the Republican party also do not support the allocation of any additional funds to combat the consequences of the coronavirus crisis. Actually, the leader of the Senate Republican majority, Mitch McConnell, could not answer the question of journalists - whether there are the necessary votes for the proposed bill. Given this disposition, it can be assumed that the above-mentioned draft law will either be removed from the vote, or it will be defeated this Thursday, that is, tomorrow.

The optimism of dollar bulls looks premature, to put it mildly. And as soon as experts' assumptions about the bill's prospects become reality, all the market's attention will be focused on Friday's inflation release. At the same time, it is worth recalling that even preliminary forecasts do not promise us inflation anything good - according to experts, the consumer price index will show negative dynamics, both on an annual and monthly basis.

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Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is under background pressure from another fundamental factor. As you know, the political conflict between Australia and China has not yet been resolved, and its manifestations are very diverse. For example, at the end of last week, Beijing imposed new restrictions on imports of agricultural products. To be more precise, China suspended deliveries of agricultural products from Western Australia, saying that "harmful weeds were found in the cargo." Representatives of the exporter - the Australian company CBH Grain Pty - said that this batch was no different from hundreds and thousands of others and meets all the requirements. However, the fact remains that China continues to show Australians its dissatisfaction with Canberra's policy regarding the "anti-China COVID-19 investigation." This factor exerts background pressure on the Aussie, especially during periods of escalating political conflict. But it is worth noting that those goods that have so far been subject to sanctions by Beijing represent a small part of the trade turnover, while goods that are strategically important for the Australian economy (iron ore, gas and coal) are not yet instruments of influence in the context of political confrontation.

In consequence, the Australian dollar paired with the US currency is likely to follow the greenback in the near future. In my opinion, short positions on the AUD/USD pair are currently unreliable, given the failed prospects of the Republican Bill. Therefore, at the base of the 72nd figure, we can consider long positions with the main goal of 0.7300 - this is the Conversion Line on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Price Movement On Sept 09, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, after breaking out, the GBP/USD pair closed below the previous day low at the 1.2976 level. The pair is now trying to hit the nearest target levels of 1.3070-1.3079. Please pay attention that the pair is unlikely to resume its upward movememt if Cable continues to decline and closes below the 1.2949 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 9, 2020

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GBP/JPY has extended its correction in red wave iv/ to a low of 137.04. Despite the extension through our ideal target near 138.31 we still see the decline from 142.76 as corrective. Red wave iv will be completed near 136.93 and the take-off in red wave v/ to at least 143.88 and possibly even closer to 148.02 is likely to happen.

In the short-term, a break above minor resistance at 137.83 will indicate the completion of red wave iv/, while a break above resistance at 138.39 will confirm its completion and red wave v/ unfolding.

R3: 138.39

R2: 137.83

R1: 137.50

Pivot: 137.40

S1: 137.04

S2: 136.93

S3: 136.67

Trading recommendation:

We have bought GBP at 137.45 and we have placed our stop at 135.75

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EUR/JPY Price Movement On Sept 09, 2020.

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After EUR/JPY has touched the previous day low at 124.67 level. The pair is trying to break through the levels of 125.14 - 125.22 as its nearest target. This scenario is unlikely to occur if the pair declines and closes bellow the 124.39 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 9, 2020

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EUR/JPY has reached the target at 124.41 (the low has been seen at 124.38). As long as minor resistance at 125.04 is able to cap the upside, we could see a final spike lower to just below 124.38 before wave C/ and wave 2/ finally has completed and a new impulsive rally in wave 3/ takes off towards at least 129.24 and ideally extends closer to 135.46.

A direct break above minor resistance at 125.04 will confirm that wave C/ and 2/ already has completed and wave 3/ is unfolding.

R3: 125.26

R2: 125.04

R1: 124.81

Pivot: 124.66

S1: 124.56

S2: 124.38

S3: 124.25

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 124.41 and we have placed our stop at 123.41

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 37 points on Tuesday, still hesitating to take decisive action, as is the case with the pound, or at least with the aussie. Investors may still be hoping for positive messages from the European Central Bank on Thursday, but the ECB will not rush to sound an alarm on Brexit, and the negative pressure from the UK is growing every day.

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But on the technical side, the euro quote will have to deal with the support of the MACD line on the daily chart, this is the 1.1750 level. The price falling in the area under it opens the first target at 1.1650. The medium-term prospect for a decline of 1.1315 is support for the embedded price channel line. It is marked in green on the chart. Taking the euro's resilience to the current political turmoil into account, we assume that the price will move from side to side until tomorrow's ECB meeting.

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The price is slightly correcting from the key level of 1.1750 on the four-hour chart. The leading Marlin oscillator is in no hurry to decline, which may also play into the euro's hands in its desire to take a closer look at the external situation and clarify the central bank's intentions. The upper limit of the waiting range is determined by the MACD line - the level 1.1855.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 9, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar lost 60 points on Tuesday, under strong pressure from related markets. The price settled below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. The target is open at 0.7110 (August 12 low), then the price can continue falling to the embedded line of the price channel in the 0.7005 area.

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Let us retest the MACD line from below (0.7292) in the current situation, since leaving the area under this line was sudden, but the probability of such a retest isn't that high.

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The price along with the oscillator is already converging on the four-hour chart. This is a sign of a correction. In the event of a slowdown in the decline of commodity markets, or even a correctional growth (oil fell by 5.73% in WTI yesterday, to $36.83), a correctional growth in the accumulation range of September 4-7 is possible, which also corresponds to the resistance of the MACD line on the daily timeframe. This goal may not be achieved and the correction will take the form of another narrow consolidation. But in any case, we are waiting for the price to reach 0.7110 in the coming days.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 9, 2020

USD/JPY

There are certain problems with growth in the US stock market. Over the past three days, the S&P 500 fell to the level of August 5th. Yesterday's drop was 2.78%. The USD/JPY pair was down 24 points yesterday, and it has declined by around 20 points over the past three days. The dollar's growth keeps the price from sharply falling. Also, the dollar index has strengthened by 0.78% over the past three days.

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The price went under the red balance indicator line on the daily chart. The Marlin Oscillator is still in the zone of positive values, but has already approached the border of the downward trend zone, which increases the risk of falling towards the nearest support in the 105.25 area.

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The price has also settled under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the downward trend zone. The way down is open, but the uncertainty about the stock market's current situation creates instability for the Japanese yen. A scenario is possible in which growth will replace the decline in the area of the September 1 low - 105.60. Also, the price settling above the MACD line, above 106.08, increases the likelihood of returning to growth towards the previous target of 106.55.

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Control zones for EUR/USD on 09/09/20

It is a priority to work in the downward direction, so any growth should be perceived as an opportunity to enter a short position. Today, the pair is trading within the "market maker zone" formed in the second half of August, which may lead to demand and the formation of a correction pattern.

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The downward movement of the last two weeks is a medium-term impulse, so any growth below the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.1867-1.1857 will be corrective and will allow us to search for patterns to sell the pair.

On the other hand, the formation of the accumulation zone will be developed if today's trading closes above yesterday's opening. An alternative pattern for the continuation of decline will become relevant if testing last week's low leads to a growth in supply.

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DCZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

WCZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

MCZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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GBPUSD Control Zones 09.09.20

Going beyond the limits of the average weekly course made it possible to record 100% of sales. The condition for corrective growth has been formed because of this. Since the probability of returning to the average move is 75%, the sales from current levels are no longer profitable.

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Working outside the mid-range zones implies exiting short positions and waiting for growth in order to find more favorable selling prices for the instrument.

If the decline continues from the current levels an alternative model will be developed. The probability of a further fall is below 30%, so you need to refrain from opening repeat sales. Favorable prices for sale are within the range of wcz 1/2 1.3186-1.3165.

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Day Control Zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly Control Zone. An area formed by important marks of the futures market that changes several times a year.

Monthly Control Zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for AUD/USD on 09/09/2020

This week, work in the downward direction remains a priority. It is enough to keep the price below the opening level of yesterday's trading to continue falling. The first resistance will be the WCZ 1/4 0.7243-0.7239. The test of this zone should be considered for the formation of a sell pattern.

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Yesterday's daily candle indicates the interest of major players in selling the Australian dollar from major players.

To form a deeper correction, an increase to the WCZ 1/2 0.7293-0.7284 will be required. The test of this zone will be decisive for the entire downward movement. Within the zone are the most favorable prices for the sale of the instrument, so they must be used to re-enter the sale.

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DCZ - control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

WCZ - weekly control zone. An area formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

MCZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCHF Control Zones 09.09.20

The upward movement of the current week is a priority. It was made possible by the formation of a reversal model. Monday's trading close above the wcz 1/2 0.9143 - 0.9129 gave the opportunity to consider purchases. The growth target is the weekly CZ 0.9292-0.9265. The purchase may require the formation of a correction model.

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The trend in the upward direction may become the main one in the first half of September. Transactions have excellent potential and the risk-to-profit ratio will be profitable below the current levels.

If the closing of today's trading will be below WCZ1/4 0.9133-0.9126, an alternative model in which a local accumulation zone is formed will be developed. This will allow us to consider a deeper correction to the significant market maker level formed last week.

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Day Control Zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly Control Zone. An area formed by important marks of the futures market that changes several times a year.

Monthly Control Zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDJPY control zones 09.09.20

The resumption of the downward movement became possible after yesterday's fall of the pair and the formation of the "absorption" pattern of the daily level. The bearish momentum may continue from the current levels as the formed "market maker zone" has already been worked out. The goal of reduction will again be the WCZ 1/2 105.43-105.28.

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Work within the medium-term accumulation zone formed by the August extremes remains the main one. Transactions from the flat boundaries must be considered in the first place.

The alternative growth model has a probability below 30%, which makes it auxiliary. To change the priority of trading, you will need to close today's trading above yesterday's high. This will allow you to consider purchases of the instrument tomorrow.

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DCZ - day control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

WCZ - weekly control zone. The area formed an important marker of the future market, which changes several times a year.

MCZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 9. COT report. Pound fell to the psychological level of $1.30.

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD currency pair, unlike EUR/USD, does not waste time on the flat and continued to sharply fall on September 8, which resulted in reaching the support area of 1.3004-1.3024. Rebounding from this area can provoke an upward correction. However, the trend is likely to remain on the downside in the near future, as the downward channel signals this, and the price even managed to go below it, which fuels the descending movement. Actually, it does not take long to look for reasons why the pound should fall. Unlike the euro, the pound sterling has plenty of them. Therefore, the question now stands as follows: how long do traders intend to get rid of the pound this time, given that the final talks on a trade deal is almost a failure? In case the 1.3004-1.3024 area has been overcome, the next target for the fall will be the 1.2833 level.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are still directed to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, so we can conclude that the downward trend will continue. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound was more unexpected than the euro's report. If non-commercial traders already shorted the euro currency, the same category of traders continued to buy the pound sterling. In total, professional traders opened 5,500 new Buy-contracts and 3,000 new Sell-contracts during the reporting week (August 26 – September 1), so their net position even increased by 2,500, according to a new COT report. In principle, these data perfectly characterize what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the pound continued to grow during all five trading days included in the report. The pound has been getting cheaper on September 1 to this day, but there is no hint that professional traders have stopped buying the pound in the latest COT report. But the new COT report may show a serious decrease in the net position for the "non-commercial" category.

The fundamental backdrop of Tuesday, September 8th, boiled down to Brexit-related topics. In principle, there wasn't any news on it. Market participants continued to sell the British currency, as the chances of a successful outcome of negotiations with Brussels became even less. And if anyone has forgotten, the absence of a deal with the EU is extremely unprofitable for the UK and its economy. However, Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to pretend that he is ready to trade with the European Union according to the WTO rules. He may be ready, but what will millions of Brits say when delays begin in the supply of certain goods, especially when it comes to essential goods? Prices for goods imported from the EU will rise, and it will be more difficult for British manufacturers to market their products to EU countries. Thus, the current drop in the pound, from our point of view, is fully justified. Now, only the United States can prevent it if their leader starts a new round of discouraging statements or, even worse, actions on the domestic and international arena. This can bring back interest to the British currency. No major macroeconomic releases from the UK or the US are scheduled for Wednesday.

We have two trading ideas for September 9:

1) Buyers are out of the market, bears rule the show. Thus, you are advised to consider buying the pound when the price settles above the descending channel with the first target being the Senkou Span B line (1.3266). Take Profit in this case will be about 70 points.

2) Sellers continue to pull down the pair, therefore, short positions remain relevant with the target of the support level of 1.2833, but it is recommended to resume trading downward if the price manages to overcome the support area 1.3004-1.3024, which was already reached yesterday. Take Profit in this case will be about 150 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 9. COT report. Indistinct movements continue. Traders wait for

EUR/USD 1H

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The hourly timeframe on September 8 shows the euro/dollar pair moving in a downward direction, inside the same side channel of $1.17-$1.19. The pair fell by only a few dozen points during the day, and at the same time, it reached 5 (!!!) previous local lows: 1.1754, 1.1772, 1.1762, 1.1789 and 1.1781. As you can see, not only do the bears face problems in going below the level of $1.17, but it has even more difficulty with overcoming the 1.1754-1.1789 area, although it does not even appear as a support area, since there is another support area at 1.1703-1.1729, from which the price also rebounded several times earlier. We believe that these are all signs of continuing the flat. It's just that in our case this flat is unattractive, not like in the textbook. Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, we can say that the upward trend is generally preserved. Looking at the lower timeframes, we can conclude that a new downward trend has begun.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling a downward movement at this time. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which, let me remind you, comes out with a three-day delay and only covers the dates from August 26 to September 1, unexpectedly showed a decrease in the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders. Let me remind you that non-commercial traders are the most important category of traders who enter the foreign exchange market in order to make a profit. So, during the reporting week, non-commercial traders reduced Buy-positions and opened Sell-contracts. The number of purchases decreased by almost 11,000, while the number of sales increased by 3,000. Thus, the net position immediately decreased by 14,000. We would like to take note that the euro did not really get cheaper during the reporting week, which is covered by the latest COT report. The euro strengthened during all five trading days, and it only started to fall on September 1, which we can now describe as being provoked by professional traders and their sell positions. However, we can not consider the overall downward movement as strong, in contrast to the fall, for example, of the pound, for which the COT report did not show that the bullish mood had weakened among non-commercial traders.

The European Union published the GDP for the second quarter in a new estimate. According to the updated data, GDP contracted by 11.8% q/q, instead of 12.1%, as was published a month earlier. Thus, we can say that this report is in favor of the European currency, but the difference between the loss of 12.1% and 11.8% is not large. Therefore, market participants practically did not react to this data in any way, continuing rather vague trades. No important news and data from the US and the EU are scheduled for release today. Therefore, weak volatile trading may continue on September 9. And traders, most likely, will continue to wait for the results of the ECB meeting, which will be summed up on September 10, Thursday. Christine Lagarde's press conference will be held at the same time.

We have two trading ideas for September 9:

1) Bulls continue to keep their finger on the pulse of the market and are ready to return at any time and open new buy positions. At least the current fall in quotes is very weak, and the price has not yet managed to even approach the important level of 1.1700, which we consider as the lower border of the side channel. Thus, it will be possible to buy the pair in case it settles above the Kijun-sen line (1.1816) and a descending channel with targets of Senkou Span B line (1.1886) and the 1.1972 level. Take Profit in this case will be from 50 to 130 points.

2) Bears got the opportunity to start forming a new downward trend, but so far they are not taking full advantage of it. Thus, for now, we can recommend selling the pair while aiming for the support level of 1.1742, and even then you have to be extremely cautious, since the movement is very weak. In this case, the potential Take Profit is 40 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 9. The British pound fell again after a long break.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -183.5785

The British pound accelerated its fall against the US dollar on Tuesday, September 8. In simpler terms, it collapsed. However, we have been expecting this for a long time, since the British currency has not had any reason to strengthen in the past few months. Its growth is solely due to the United States with its fan of various crises and problems. Thus, the UK currency has grown undeservedly and now begins to slowly repay debts. This process did not start out of the blue. The events of the past week have clearly shown what was clear to many a year ago when Boris Johnson was just starting negotiations with the UK parliament and the European Union. Even then, Johnson clearly stated his position - to leave the European Union without any agreements, according to a "hard" scenario. He was ready to withdraw the country, bypassing the parliament, sending it on forced leave, as he understood that the deputies would not allow him to implement this option of "divorce" with the alliance. However, Johnson's plan failed like many others. Unfortunately for the UK itself, the British people are so tired of living in limbo that they simply gave most of the votes to the Conservative Party, hoping that Boris Johnson will quickly finish the "divorce" from the EU, which only 52% voted for in 2016. Moreover, that's exactly what Johnson has been doing for more than six months. At first, he flatly refused to extend the "transition period", during which there would be a much better chance of agreeing on free trade, and then began to put forward ultimatums to Brussels and conditions that no one in their right mind would accept. Naturally, the European Union did not accept them either. However, to reproach Johnson himself, there is nothing. He is only implementing the plan that he has honestly and publicly stated from the very beginning of his term as Prime Minister. Where Boris Johnson's policy might lead the UK is a completely different question. We see that in the last 4 years, the pound has regularly collapsed. Some may say that the pound has not fallen so much in total over 4 years, losing only about 13-14 cents. The absolute maximum of the pound was reached in 2007 when it cost 2.12 US dollars. The absolute minimum was reached in March of this year - 1.14 US dollars. Thus, even if you take a certain average value of the pound over the past 25 years, it turns out that it is somewhere around the level of 1.65. At the same time, the pound exchange rate is $ 1.30, and we see a clear approach to a new collapse.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson royally granted time until October 15 to complete the negotiations. If the parties fail to reach an agreement before this date (and there is no doubt about this, since London initially did not intend to agree), then the negotiations will be completed. The fact that London was not going to conclude any agreement says a huge number of factors. We believe that 10 Downing Street understood from the very beginning that a comprehensive agreement would leave Britain tied to the EU. London will not get full and total independence, so this option was initially unacceptable. Further, London tried to bluff, threaten and issue ultimatums, trying to scare the European Union with the lack of a deal and at the same time pretend that London itself is completely ready for the option of no agreement and is not afraid of it at all. The goal of these maneuvers was to force the EU to be more accommodating in negotiations. However, the European Union, which loses disproportionately less from breaking all ties with Britain, did not follow Johnson's lead. Therefore, now Boris can only continue to pretend that the UK will live well without the European Union. Further, participants in the foreign exchange market have shown very well in recent years how much they believe in this.

In addition to the fact that London is not going to agree with the EU, it may well violate already concluded agreements, for example, on the procedure that will operate on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit. Recall that Northern Ireland will remain in the UK, and Ireland will remain in the EU. Thus, there must be a border, customs, and control between them. But how can this be explained to the Northern Irish and Irish themselves, who fought for 30 years before 1998 for various religious reasons, and who are one people? Under the agreement with the EU, all goods that are sent to Northern Ireland, whose capital will remain part of the EU's single market, must be checked and carefully monitored at the maritime border. However, the UK itself does not benefit from long checks and customs between Ireland and Northern Ireland, as this may provoke an increase in separatist sentiment and a new civil conflict. Therefore, London wants to soften any controls on the island of Ireland as much as possible, while keeping its face to the EU. However, Brussels has already expressed its complaints about the possible actions of London. The very fact that London is considering the option of unilaterally ending compliance with previously reached agreements will not only complicate the already failed negotiations but may also seriously affect the already difficult future relations between the Kingdom and the alliance. So far, everything goes to the fact that Britain will be in a state of conflict with the European Union for a long time. Moreover, Boris Johnson will play the role of Donald Trump.

As for the pound itself, it can be saved by Donald Trump and America. Because the worse things are in the US, the better it is for the British pound. Thus, buyers of the British currency can now only hope that things will get even worse in America. And this can easily be achieved by re-electing Donald Trump for a second term. It sounds funny, however, "the results are on the scoreboard". America is going through the worst crisis in 100 years. And this is the fault of Donald Trump.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 134 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Wednesday, September 9, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2879 and 1.3147. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a round of upward correction within the new downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3000

S2 – 1.2939

S3 – 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3123

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in short positions with targets of 1.2939 and 1.2878 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward, which indicates the beginning of a correction. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with the first target of 1.3306 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line, which is not expected in the near future.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 9. Donald Trump threatens China and criticizes Joe Biden

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -134.5105

The EUR/USD pair also passed in quiet trading with low volatility and minimal downward bias for the second trading day of the week. Unfortunately, market participants are still not able to decide at this time on the further trading strategy and are waiting for new important data that can tell them which way to trade the pair. Also, now is a very good time to trade the pound/dollar pair, where there is no lack of fundamental background. Therefore, some of the euro currency traders temporarily ran away to trade the pound. During the past three (or four) months, the EUR/USD pair has generally been getting more expensive. Moreover, it has been standing in one place last month. Thus, it turns out that euro traders are not in a hurry to get rid of long positions yet. Why? Because the situation in the States continues to be quite unsightly. Furthermore, there are many reasons for this. Starting with the "four crises" that we have been talking about for several months and ending with new potentially serious problems and the personality of Donald Trump, who seems to be doing everything to make more enemies in both inside and outside the country.

You can only be happy about one thing: the "coronavirus" epidemic in the United States began to recede. In recent weeks, there has been a clear decline in the number of new cases. Moreover, since we are talking about living and ordinary people, this is undoubtedly a positive fact for the country and its national currency. First, the weaker the pandemic, the more socially and economically active the country's residents will be. This means that business activity will grow and the economic recovery will proceed more quickly. People will be more willing to return to work, which means they will have to pay fewer unemployment benefits and "coronavirus allowances". In general, no matter how you look at it, the lower the unemployment rate and the weaker the "coronavirus", the better for the US and the dollar.

Unfortunately, this is all positive news from America. We return to the figure of Donald Trump, who resumed daily accusations and insults of everyone who does not support his policies and candidacy in the elections. First, China got it again. This time, Trump said that China does not want his re-election and interferes in the election to achieve a victory for Joe Biden. According to Trump, China incites protests, mass rallies, and riots in the United States, hiding behind racist scandals that provoked the "Black Lives Matter" movement. However, official US intelligence data does not confirm Trump's accusations against China like how they did not confirm his accusations earlier when the US president said that "China specifically infected the whole world with COVID-2019". Next came Joe Biden. Trump once again criticized the Democrat's plan to reorganize the energy sector, saying that "his plans are unrealistic" and he "will simply destroy the entire sector". Further, the US Department of Defense fell under the "distribution", which Trump also "rode like a roller", accusing them of inciting wars for the sake of enriching military enterprises. The US leader believes that leaders in the Pentagon specifically provoke or find conflicts around the world to enrich companies that produce weapons and military equipment. Trump named his priority for the second presidential term as "the return of American military personnel home". Also, Donald Trump again recalled Biden's mental abilities, saying that "he did not understand politics when he was in his prime, and even more so in his current state".

Well, the biggest criticism went to American companies that have located their production in China. Donald Trump believes that this way American manufacturers create jobs in the camp of the main enemy and competitor. If he wins the election, the president promised that he would return most of the production to the United States to "end dependence on China", as well as to create jobs in America. Trump promised that all companies that refuse to return home will be forced to pay high taxes to compensate for their departure to China. Those companies that decide to return home, on the contrary, will be subsidized. "If they can't create production here, then let them pay high taxes. We will prohibit granting government contracts to companies that export production to China. We will hold China accountable for allowing the coronavirus to spread around the world. They are strengthening their army with our money, and I don't want that," the American president said. "We will turn America into a manufacturing superpower and end our dependence on China once and for all. We can't rely on China," added Trump, who of course forgot that he had already promised to return American manufacturers before the last election and failed to return any major companies to the United States for 4 years. However, before the new election, Trump started an old record. We believe that Trump's actions are mostly destructive. The direct pressure on American manufacturers may lead to them leaving the United States altogether and producing their products outside of their borders. Because whatever tax benefits Trump offers these companies, it should be understood that the production of any goods in the United States is much more expensive than in almost any other country in the world. Especially if we are talking about developing countries with cheap labor. Thus, it will not be profitable for any company to move production to the United States, as this can increase the cost of production by 50-100%. Naturally, this will harm sales and revenue. Moreover, American workers will have to pay much higher wages than Chinese workers. In general, we do not believe that American manufacturers will return to the States. However, we believe that Trump can start a war against them. After all, Trump knows only a few ways to achieve his own goals: threats, direct pressure, and war. Thus, it is the US president who can contribute to an even greater decline or a slowdown in the US economy if he is re-elected for a second term.

This does not bode well for the US dollar in the long run. Against the euro, it is still holding off from a new fall and may even start to rise in price in the coming weeks. However, for a stronger strengthening than a correction, it is necessary to complete at least half of the crises that are currently observed in the United States.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 9 is 72 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1723 and 1.1867. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals a possible round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

R3 – 1.2085

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair may continue its downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to trade down with the targets of 1.1723 and 1.1719 and hold short positions until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. If the price is fixed above the moving average, it is recommended to trade for an increase with the target of 1.1963.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com