Indicator analysis. Daily review for July 10, 2019 for EUR / USD

On Tuesday, the price moved down in the side channel. Today, up to the news (14.00 Universal time), an upward movement is expected. Strong calendar news is expected at 14.00, 14.30 and 18.00 Universal time (dollar). At 14.00 UTC+00, the market is waiting for the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA, which can clarify the prospects of monetary policy in the country.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, before 14.00 Universal time, there will be an upward movement with the first target of 1.1226 - a pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dashed line)

hU1D-AM_NR4pPil0qLIKFunnstumRJPSOiqXn4WG

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - strong up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, before 14.00 Universal time, there will be an upward movement with the first target of 1.1226 - a pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dashed line)

The market is waiting for the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell before the US Congress, which will be held at 2.00 pm Universal time. Investors hope to get more information on regulator plans.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Powell can shake up the markets, but the euro and pound will not help

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 103.3 p in June against 105.0 p a month earlier, and, despite the fact that the index is still at a historically high level, the June figures indicate the probability of a reversal. The uncertainty sub-index has grown to the highest level in 27 months, with business owners reducing costs and sales expectations. Capital expenditure plans are also being reduced, and the business is preparing to tighten credit conditions.

analytics5d25865515dd1.jpg

The markets are dominated by a strong opinion that Trump will not allow the fall of stock indices before the presidential company, otherwise he will have no chance for a second term. That's right, but what resources does Trump have for this task? The fiscal reform has led to a sharp drop in budget revenues, and in September, the United States may be faced with the possibility of a technical default if the debt ceiling is not raised again.

A strong dollar provides as the basis for the entire global economy, but has a negative impact on the US trade balance. It is hardly possible to keep the stock indices at high levels with the growing threat of recession without weakening the dollar. If the Fed reduces the rate at its meeting on July 31, it will most likely cause a chain reaction from a number of other central banks, and the dollar is unlikely to lose its value.

Today, Fed Chairman Powell will speak in Congress, and the reaction of the markets to the performance may be significant if his rhetoric differs from the tone that was contained in the minutes from the last FOMC meeting while the markets are set to further strengthen the dollar.

EURUSD

The investor confidence indicator Sentix has updated its multi-year low once again, dropping to -5.8 p in June. The decline reflects the growing uncertainty of the business in the growth prospects of the European economy. The forecasts for June inflation are negative, which reinforces concerns about the outcome of the ECB meeting on July 25.

EURUSD is under pressure, support of 1.1180 can be achieved in the near future, which will strengthen the downward movement.

GBPUSD

The volume of retail sales in the UK, according to the BRK, decline in June by 1.6%, reaching the lowest levels in the entire history of observations since 1995. The picture, as follows from the report, is grim - wage growth did not lead to an increase in costs, as consumers began to prepare for the worst case scenario for Brexit.

The lack of clarity in this issue undermines consumer confidence, the pressure on retail is increasing, and the reason is not seasonality, but awareness of the impending recession.

The Bank of England, as a rule, seeks to repeat the actions of the Fed, with some delay. So it was after the Fed started the rate growth cycle in 2015, the Bank of England also raised the rate, but then nevertheless had to take a pause, since both the economic conditions and the Brexit situation did not favor monetary tightening.

In June, composite PMI went to the reduction zone, indices are increasingly worse than expectations, and, apparently, a sharp decline in GDP growth rates is not far off.

analytics5d2586c158e55.jpg

So far, it follows that the contraction of the economy should be about 0.2% from PMI. The trend is that, along with the reduction in retail sales, there is no need to dream of rising inflation. The Bank of England will have to react, and this reaction will come before the deadline of Brexit.

In other words, if the Fed lowers the rate in July, as the markets wait, the pound will not get any advantage out of it - the markets will wait for the Bank of England to go the same way. Based on this, it is not necessary to expect the growth of the pound in the short term. Today, an impressive package of macroeconomic information will be published - a report on industrial production, trade balance and GDP growth rates for May inclusive, forecasts are neutral. On Thursday, data on inflation in June will be published, and the forecast is already negative - a slowdown is expected from 1.8% to 1.5%, which by itself leaves no chance for the pound to resume growth.

GBPUSD, as predicted, went below 1.25. The immediate support at 1.2426 can be broken through today, which will open the way to 1.21 in the medium term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/CAD. Catching the trend: a weak aussie against the background of a promising loonie

Dollar pairs are waiting for the main event of the day - the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress. Yesterday he spoke at the opening of the banking conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (via video conference), but his speech was ceremonial, without mentioning the prospects for monetary policy. But today the situation is radically different. Powell will not only give a report on the immediate prospects for monetary policy, but also answer questions from congressmen who are also interested in the fate of the interest rate.

Considering the importance of this event, it is better not to trade in dollar pairs - at least until such time as Powell's position is clear in the light of the latest data on the US labor market. The greenback can stop its growth and weaken across the market if the Fed chief confirms the regulator's intention to lower the rate this month. Vice versa - the US currency will continue its rally if it eliminates these concerns. There is no consensus among analysts as to exactly which scenario is being implemented. Therefore, in the light of the continuing intrigue, it is better to temporarily leave the dollar alone - its fate is too uncertain.

analytics5d258e6f9ce0c.jpg

But you should take a look at some cross pairs. My personal favorite among the other crosses is the pound-yen pair. Playing against the British currency is almost a win-win tactic, especially amid growing confidence regarding the implementation of a "hard" Brexit. But lately, the volatility of the pair has decreased: the pound in anticipation of Johnson's appointment and his first decisions as a prime minister, the yen in anticipation of the next geopolitical upheaval, of which it is the beneficiary. In terms of relative silence, the GBP/JPY cross pair demonstrates low activity, and therefore is of little interest to traders.

In turn, the AUD/CAD cross pair has recently shown increased volatility - over the past three months, the pair has fallen by more than 500 points and continues to show a downward movement. Today, the downward trend can get another impulse, according to the results of the July meeting of the Bank of Canada. If Stephen Poloz doesn't surprise traders with a soft rhetoric, the bearish mood on the pair will increase significantly, especially against the background of the announced intentions of the RBA.

In general, the downward trend in AUD/CAD is primarily due to the decoupling of the actions of the RBA and the Bank of Canada. The Australian regulator has already reduced the interest rate twice this year, and apparently it is not going to stop there. At the last meeting, members of the regulator hinted rather transparently at the "continuation of the banquet" if the key parameters of the Australian economy do not show signs of growth. Since the July meeting (which took place on the 2nd of March), only minor macroeconomic releases have been published - but they have also disappointed investors. For example, the index of business confidence, which is calculated by the largest bank in Australia NAB, showed a negative trend, dropping to 2 points. Westpac, the other largest bank in the country, published the consumer confidence index yesterday, which also showed a downward trend. This indicator has updated two-year lows, reflecting the uncertainty of Australians in their financial well-being.

Chinese data is also controversial. The PRC consumer price index published today remained at the level of May (2.7%), while the producer price index was worse than expected, dropping to zero (the weakest growth rate in three years). The Australian dollar is quite sensitive to indicators of the dynamics of the Chinese economy, so the AUD/CAD cross pair continues to show a bearish attitude today.

The Canadian dollar against the background of the aussie looks confident, even despite the very contradictory data on the labor market in Canada, which were published last week. Canadians have a significant trump card - strong inflation - whose growth dynamics surpassed all expectations. In addition, the warming of relations between Ottawa and Washington, as well as the growth of the oil market, make it possible for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold. Moreover, some of the analysts are expecting "hawkish" notes in rhetoric from Steven Poloz today - although in my opinion, the head of the regulator will limit himself to cautious optimism. However, this is quite enough to continue the downward trend of the AUD/CAD pair.

From a technical point of view, the cross pair is under significant pressure and as well as on all the higher time frames. On H4, D1, W1 and MN, the pair is on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which also indicates the priority of a downward movement. The pair shows a pronounced bearish trend, as evidenced by the main trend indicators - Bollinger Bands and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. Thus, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator on the daily chart formed its strongest bearish signal, "Parade of Lines," in which all lines of the indicator are above the price chart, thereby showing pressure on the pair.

analytics5d258e831870c.jpg

In turn, the price is on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which shows a narrowed channel - this is also a strong signal for a downward direction. An additional confirmation to the bearish scenario is the oversoldness of the MACD and Stochastic oscillators. In order to determine the main goal of the downward movement, let's move to the weekly timeframe: here we focus on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands - this is the price of 0.9050. Strong arguments are necessary in order for the pair's bears to go below this mark - not only at the expense of a weak aussie, but also at the expense of a strong loonie. Today's meeting of the Canadian regulator can play a significant role in this.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD for July 10, 2019

analytics5d258252a648d.jpg

Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has almost achieved the downside objectives around 1.1190/1.1200 levels as we have been discussing the same since last several trading sessions. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.1210 levels at the moment of writing, having print lows at 1.1193 yesterday. It can still push lower towards yet another low before pulling back higher again. We maintain our stand for a bullish potential from current levels or a bit lower. Immediate support is seen at 1.1280 levels followed by 1.1107 levels respectively. Prices are close to fibonacci convergence around 1.1200/20 levels as seen here. Furthermore, the past resistance can also provide enough support around the 1.1200 zone. At least a pullback towards 1.1340/50 levels or even a new high above 1.1412 levels can be expected. It is still safe trading strategy to remain long against 1.1107 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop below 1.1107, target is open (1.1340 at least)

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 10/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The former CEO of Bitmain, one of the largest Bitcoin mining companies in the world, launched a startup of financial services related to cryptography.

After reports of this initiative in early June, the co-founder and former CEO of Bitmain, Wu Jihan, officially launched today a new cryptographic transaction platform that allegedly offers off-exchange transactions, loans and storage.

Named Matrixport, the Singaporean company reportedly hired dozens of former Bitmain employees who were released as a result of the bear market in 2018.

Although Wu is the main shareholder of Matrixport, the company has a number of global venture capital companies as investors, including Bitmain itself, revealed the company's general manager and shareholder Bitmain, Ge Yuesheng. He added that the Matrixport will officially announce more details about financing the company at a later date.

In an interview, Ge stated that Matrixport would act as a Bitmain partner, not a competition, and stressed that the company is "closely related to Bitmain by our origin."

Ge, a founding member of Bitmain and a 4% shareholder in the company, also claimed that Matrixport will use its Bitmain connections and expertise to meet the needs of Chinese crypto-currency miners.

The news came about reports that Bitmain revives IPO plans in the second quarter of 2019. According to anonymous Bloomberg sources, Bitmain expects to collect about 300 million to 500 million dollars in the IPO in the United States this year.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $317.30. This means that step by step the bulls are regaining the control over the market and are pushing the prices higher after the corrective cycle had been completed. Nevertheless, the price temporary reversed towards the level of $304,17 again, so it might be possible that the top of the wave C is in place at $317.30. Any breakout below the level of $297.51 before a new high is made will confirm the bearish scenario. Otherwise, the rebound might be quick and sudden, so the technical resistance at the level of $324.09 is the next target for bulls.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $360.95

WR2 - $335.54

WR1 - $324.79

Weekly Pivot - $298.87

WS1 - $285.22

WS2 - $258.89

WS3 - $247.45

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

analytics5d257d1ea43c0.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 10/07/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin hash rate has reached today's new highest level in history, according to data from the monitoring of blockchain network resources.

The previous record was beaten in the second half of June when the bitcoin hash rate reached 65.19 TH/s and has grown steadily since then.

Hash rate is the number of calculations that given equipment or network can perform in each second. This is a very important parameter for miners because a higher coefficient will increase their chances of solving a mathematical problem, sealing the block and collecting rewards. A higher network hash rate also increases the number of resources needed to carry out a 51 percent attack, making the network safer.

The period after September 2018 - during the so-called "cryptographic winter" - proved to be a retrograde step for the Bitcoin network. At the time, the network's hash rate decreased for the first time in history.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTCU/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance located at the level of $12,363 and a new local high was made at the level of $13,064. The ABC correction seems to be completed now and the market might be ready for another wave up. The next target is seen at the level of $13,293 and if this level is clearly violated, then the next target for bulls is this year high at the level of $13,698.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,886

WR2 - $13,428

WR1 - $12,616

Weekly Pivot - $11,119

WS1 - $10,237

WS2 - $8,716

WS3 - $7,123

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger ABC correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up.

analytics5d257bfd95bfa.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 10/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 1.2439 in extremely oversold market conditions. There Pin Bar made at the swing low at the level of 1.2476 was invalidated as there is not much bullish pressure on the market and the bears are still in full control of the market. The nearest technical resistance is located at the level of 1.2476 and it might be tested soon due to the oversold market conditions. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.4232.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2853

WR2 - 1.2772

WR1 - 1.2630

Weekly Pivot - 1.2551

WS1 - 1.2402

WS2 - 1.2319

WS3 - 1.2180

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.242 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2775 and only if this level is violated, there is a chance for the trend reversal.

analytics5d257ae4bb438.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 10/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken below the technical support located at the level of 1.1206 and made a new low at the level of 1.1193, so it is getting closer to the key technical support at the level of 1.1181. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1215. The momentum remains weak and negative, but due to the extremely oversold market conditions, there is a pull-back possibility towards the level of 1.1268. Nevertheless, the main trend is still to the downside despite the possible Ending Diagonal formation visible on the higher time-frames.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1467

WR2 - 1.1414

WR1 - 1.1302

Weekly Pivot - 1.1251

WS1 - 1.1141

WS2 - 1.1087

WS3 - 1.0908

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to buy the corrections in anticipation of the uptrend to resume. This strategy is valid as long as the level of 1.1181 is clearly violated. The larget time frame trend is still down, but there are signs of the trend reversal and the Ending Diagonal breakout to the upside.

analytics5d2579ba8e908.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 10 - 2019

analytics5d256b436dba9.png

EUR/JPY has won a little more terrain and is testing minor resistance at 122.13 again. This will be a real challenge to break above. The structure of the rally of the 121.29 low does not display any impulsive characters and the risk of a final dip closer to 121.00. Important short-term support at 120.94 remains an obvious possibility.

Only a direct break above resistance at 122.54 will shift the bias back towards the upside for an ultimate break back above the 127.50 peak.

R3: 122.54

R2: 122.24

R1: 122.13

Pivot: 121.82

S1: 121.50

S2: 121.32

S3: 121.00

Trading recommendation:

We will take half profit here at 122.02 on our long position from 121.50. We will move our stop higher to 121.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD reversing off resistance, potential for further drop!

analytics5d2572d8b9bf9.jpg

GBPUSD is reversing off our first resistance where we remain bearish below our first resistance level.

Entry: 1.2472

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.2503

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.2430

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension

analytics5d2572ba2b2f0.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD broke out of its support turned resistance, potential further drop!

analytics5d257260f3211.jpg

AUDUSD is expected to drop further to its support at 0.6907.

Entry: 0.6937

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6957

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 0.6907

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

analytics5d2572433ba69.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY approaching resistance, possible drop!

analytics5d2571e3e8f8c.jpg

Price is reaching resistance at 109.002, a drop could occur!

Entry :109.002

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci extension

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 108.592

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback support

analytics5d2571bd10d22.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 10 - 2019

analytics5d256cb6a8ced.png

GBP/JPY seems to be working on its final dip towards our target at 134.50 from where a new impulsive rally is expected. This next rally should ultimately rally back above the 148.87 peak.

Short-term minor resistance is seen at 135.82, which is expected to cap the upside for a break below 135.36 and 135.15 for the dip to 134.50 to complete wave 2 and set the stage for wave 3 higher.

Only an unexpected break above resistance at 136.75 will indicate that wave 2 already has completed and wave 3 is in motion.

R3: 137.24

R2: 136.75

R1: 136.30

Pivot: 135.82

S1: 135.36

S2: 135.15

S3: 134.50

Trading recommendation:

We are looking to buy GBP at 134.65.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, July 10, 2019

analytics5d2559b94b5f3.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German 10-y Bond Auction, Italian Industrial Production m/m, and French Industrial Production m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, and Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1259. Strong Resistance: 1.1253. Original Resistance: 1.1242. Inner Sell Area: 1.1231. Target Inner Area: 1.1205. Inner Buy Area: 1.1179. Original Support: 1.1168. Strong Support: 1.1157. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1151. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 10, 2019

analytics5d25594ac1dbc.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the PPI y/y and the US will publish some economic data such as 10-y Bond Auction, Crude Oil Inventories, and Final Wholesale Inventories m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 109.51. Resistance. 2: 109.30. Resistance. 1: 109.09. Support. 1: 108.81. Support. 2: 108.60. Support. 3: 108.39. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 10, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro, apparently, is in no hurry to hit its goal of 1.1155 - the Fibonacci level 110.0% on the daily chart. It only fell by 5 points yesterday. The slower the price moves away from the technical resistance, the more likely it is to reverse it. The nearest goal for a corrective growth is the MACD line on the daily chart at 1.1240. If this does not happen, the price will overcome yesterday's low, the goal of 1.1155 will remain relevant.

analytics5d256e271081a.png

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator signal line attempts to move to the growth zone, this is a direct sign of a possible price increase to the balance line that coincides in the price level (1.1240) with the target on the daily chart, and further, in case of favorable circumstances, to the MACD line at 1.1274.

analytics5d256e3cc72b2.png

The reversal of the signal line from the boundary with the growth territory can destroy the corrective plan. In order to do this, the price drop should be quick.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 10, 2019

GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the British pound fell by 52 points, to the nearest target of 1.2311, defined as the point of intersection of the embedded line of the price channel and the price level of the low on November 20, 2016, there are about 140 points. Important economic data will be released in the UK today, forecasts for which look optimistic, but the technical picture is in conflict with these expectations.

analytics5d256c72dd4f3.png

Industrial production is expected to grow by 1.6% in May against a decline of 2.7% in April, production in the construction sector is expected to increase by 0.4% against -0.4% earlier, GDP for May could expand by 0, 3% versus an economic contraction of -0.4% in April. The trade balance for May is seen to decline from -12.1 billion pounds to -12.5 billion pounds. The expected data is good in that it allows you to avoid a recession in the three-month horizon, even if they do not overlap the deterioration of previous periods.

analytics5d256c876dabf.png

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the lower limit of the 1.2480-1.2556 range, while the Marlin oscillator signal line went under the forming convergence line, that is, it was not expected to turn upwards from the technical side. Hence, taking into account the general pessimistic mood of the market relative to the British pound, rumors of a lower BOE rate, the market's response to expected data can be muted, even data can be interpreted as not strong enough to change investor sentiment or the data could turn out worse than predicted.

Therefore, we are waiting for the pound at a target level of 1.2311 in the coming days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on July 10, 2019

USD/JPY

Yesterday and today, the price is testing the strength of the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel at around 109.00. As we expected, the reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator from the border with the territory of the decline on the daily chart took place. Now, the pair USD/JPY needs to overcome this resistance to pass only 25 points to the next resistance on the daily chart – the MACD line, which is an indicator of the current trend.

analytics5d2561073fc2d.png

As seen on the four-hour chart, the growth of the Marlin oscillator slowed down, the price may roll back from the current level. But the general upward trend remains stable – the price is above the balance line (red indicator) and the MACD line. The level of 108.20 in this case is not the goal of a possible correction, it marks the "last line of defense" of the bulls. With the departure of the price below this line, a deeper drop is possible.

analytics5d25612073cb8.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 10

Forecast for July 10:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

analytics5d254046d23ad.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1299, 1.1286, 1.1257, 1.1238, 1.1208, 1.1191, 1.1155 and 1.1129. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of June 28. The consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.1208 - 1.1191. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1155. We consider the level of 1.1129 to be a potential value for the bottom. After reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1238 - 1.1257. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1286. The range of 1.1286 - 1.1299 is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - a local downward structure of June 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1238 Take profit: 1.1255

Buy 1.1258 Take profit: 1.1285

Sell: 1.1208 Take profit: 1.1192

Sell: 1.1189 Take profit: 1.1155

analytics5d25406185dde.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2539, 1.2493, 1.2466, 1.2412 and 1.2365. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 25th. At the moment, we expect a movement to the level of 1.2412. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2365. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2410.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2466 - 1.2493. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2539. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2466 Take profit: 1.2490

Buy: 1.2495 Take profit: 1.2538

Sell: 1.2412 Take profit: 1.2467

Sell: 1.2464 Take profit: 1.2367

analytics5d2540a8c8c94.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0070, 1.0008, 0.9980, 0.9938, 0.9905, 0.9881, 0.9841 and 0.9810. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of June 25. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9938. In this case, the target is 0.9980. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9980 - 1.0008 and hence, there is a high probability of going into a correction. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0070.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9905 - 0.9881. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9841. This level is a key support for the top. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the downward cycle 0.9810.

The main trend is the ascending cycle of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9939 Take profit: 0.9980

Buy : 0.9982 Take profit: 1.0008

Sell: 0.9905 Take profit: 0.9883

Sell: 0.9878 Take profit: 0.9844

analytics5d2540c4078fd.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 110.16, 109.74, 109.47, 109.02, 108.70, 108.48 and 108.19. Here, the subsequent targets for the upward trend, we have determined from the local ascending structure on July 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.02. In this case, the target is 109.47. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 109.47 - 109.74. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 110.16. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.70 - 108.48. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 108.19. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the ascending structure of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.02 Take profit: 109.45

Buy : 109.48 Take profit: 109.72

Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.52

Sell: 108.46 Take profit: 108.20

analytics5d25410f48abd.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3272, 1.3238, 1.3212, 1.3174, 1.3142, 1.3051, 1.3027 and 1.3001. Here, the price forms the potential for an upward movement of July 4. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3142. In this case, the target is 1.3174, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3175 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3212. A short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.3212 - 1.3238. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3272. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The level of 1.3051 is a key support for the ascending structure. Its breakdown will lead to movement to level 1.3027. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3001.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the upward trend of July 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3142 Take profit: 1.3172

Buy : 1.3176 Take profit: 1.3212

Sell: 1.3050 Take profit: 1.3028

Sell: 1.3025 Take profit: 1.3001

analytics5d25412b834a4.png

For a pair of Australian Dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6993, 0.6966, 0.6950, 0.6922, 0.6886, 0.6863 and 0.6829. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 4th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6920. In this case, the target is 0.6886. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6886 - 0.6863. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.6829. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.6950 - 0.6966. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.6993. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of July 4th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6950 Take profit: 0.6965

Buy: 0.6968 Take profit: 0.6990

Sell : 0.6920 Take profit : 0.6888

Sell: 0.6885 Take profit: 0.6864

analytics5d25419151b6f.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.28, 121.89, 121.67, 121.41, 121.22, 120.92 and 120.48. Here, we continue to follow the downward cycle of July 1. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes by the noise range 121.41 - 121.22. In this case, the target is the level of 120.92, and near this level, there is consolidation. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.48. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The consolidated movement is possible in the range of 121.89 - 122.28. The level of 122.28 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 1, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 121.94 Take profit: 122.28

Sell: 121.22 Take profit: 120.94

Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.50

analytics5d2541ad5fade.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 136.31, 135.87, 135.65, 135.24, 134.99 and 134.50. Here, we continue to monitor the downward cycle from July 1. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.24 - 134.99. The breakdown of the last value will allow to expect movement towards a potential target - 134.50. After reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 135.87 - 136.31, and up to the level of 136.31, we expect the potential for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.90 Take profit: 136.30

Sell: 135.24 Take profit: 135.00

Sell: 134.95 Take profit: 134.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Everything suggests that oil prices will continue to grow

analytics5d2531a65c606.jpg

The real cut in OPEC supplies and tensions in the Middle East outweighed fears of a possible decrease in oil demand. "Black gold" is actively going up, despite the trade dispute between the United States and China, which holds back the growth of the world economy and, accordingly, the demand for oil. OPEC, in partnership with Russia, agreed to extend the supply reduction agreement until March 2020. Brent crude rose 15 cents to 64.26 dollars per barrel, American WTI 9 cents to 57.75 dollars per barrel. In general, Brent this year has already grown by almost 20%, and, apparently, this is not the limit. Tensions in the Middle East also contribute to price increases, especially concerns about a deal restricting Iran's nuclear program.

"OPEC and its allies are doing everything possible to support the market. Oil prices should stay high enough in the coming months, or at least they certainly should not fall," PVM believes. Oil also supports forecasts for US reserves, which, according to analysts, will be reduced by 3.6 million barrels. In addition, in early July, oil production in Russia fell to almost a three-year low due to a reduction in the production of the largest producer, Rosneft. The reason for the decline is the consequences of detecting contaminated oil in the Druzhba pipeline.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDX: Arguments for further dollar declines

analytics5d252da19f3b2.jpg

Donald Trump constantly criticizes the Fed policy and strong dollar, in response to this, the US currency only increases in price, and the regulator demonstrates independence. It seems that the owner of the White House still managed to reach the dollar, the rate slipped from recent highs reached due to positive labor market data on Friday. Many analysts are now predicting a "smooth" but steady decline for the greenback.

The WSJ dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of 16 competitors, retreated from highs by 1.1%. The dollar slowed down against six currencies. According to the CFTC and Scotiabank, net longs on the greenback fell to a year low.

analytics5d252db729bc2.png

The dollar's fall may accelerate if in the coming months the Fed will ease monetary policy. Trimming the cost of lending in the United States, as a rule, reduces the attractiveness of the dollar in the eyes of investors who hunt for high returns. Strong employment figures gave some hope to the market. Traders are waiting for a less aggressive rate cut this year. To make sure of the desired, investors will pay special attention to the FOMC meeting minutes and data on inflation this week.

By the way, on Tuesday, White House Economic Adviser Larry Cudlow said that the Fed has the opportunity to cancel the rate cut this summer. When making a decision, the regulator's officials will primarily be guided not by labor statistics, but by price indicators.

"We see arguments in favor of a weaker dollar in the longer term, and perhaps the process has already begun. We still predict that the dollar rate will be lower with Trump's departure than after his election victory," Standard Chartered commented on the situation.

What will be the second half of the year for the dollar?

Since the Fed's signals of intention to pursue an active policy of mitigation are still relevant, the dollar will decline in the second half of this year. If the Fed suddenly resists a reduction in rates, then the market will quickly force it, as it did in December (the market collapsed, and the central bank began to implicitly ask for forgiveness).

In the first months of this year, the most significant event in currencies was the stability of the dollar. This happened despite the sharp reversal of the Fed's plans - from being "hawkish" in late December to turning "dovish" with each subsequent meeting. The Fed has obviously gone too far with tightening. After receiving a forecast for the third quarter and beyond, after the June meeting, the market sensed that the regulator is signaling further aggressive easing. If, by the end of the current quarter, we see significant signs of weakening, the Fed will instantly reduce rates or even return to quantitative easing by the end of the year.

There are opinions that reducing the rate of the Fed and the repetition of the beaten methods of quantitative easing is nothing but a waste of energy. The most effective medicine here is the fiscal policy proposed by Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Whether the United States can quickly reorganize depends on whether Trump is able to conclude a truce with the Democratic House of Representatives and stop attempts at impeachment. An acute conflict will slow down the transition to a weaker dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

In search for a low: Catch the pound at $1.20

analytics5d252af260172.jpg

Every day, the forecast for the pound is getting worse. Today, quotes of the GBP/USD pair are below the important mark of 1.2480. The next target sellers of the sterling is a very strong technical support level of 1.2350.

analytics5d252b05741cf.png

On Tuesday afternoon, quotes of the GBP USD pair were at 1.2466. The last time the British currency traded in this area was more than two years ago. Sterling also fell in tandem with the euro. All this happens because, at five minutes past hours, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to part with the European Union by any means on October 31. His hawkish position reinforces concerns about a possible exit without a deal. Another contender for the premiership, Jeremy Hunt, is forced to adopt a similar political line. Now the competition between Johnson and Hunt is based on the competitive moment in the context of Brexit. This is unlikely to improve the mood against the pound.

Moody's has previously warned of a possible recession in the UK in the event of a "hard" scenario. A whole series of weak economic data came out, which caused a wave of concern about the decline in British GDP in the second quarter. The first assessment will be published on Wednesday. The next day, the Bank of England will publish its report on financial stability, which should help traders understand whether the central bank will consider the possibility of lowering rates after other global regulators to support the country's economy. Tomorrow's data is expected to confirm the presence of stagnation in Britain.

Where is the limit for the pound's decline?

Sterling's withdrawal below the $1.25 mark could become a kind of springboard for the lowest levels of the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017 to be tested. We are talking about the $1.20 mark. Given the prospects for sharpening political rhetoric regarding an exit without a deal and the deterioration of economic realities, this may well happen.

"At this stage it is difficult to imagine a potential trigger that could lead to a change in the current "bearish" moods on the pound," the leading currency strategies of the MUFG share their assumptions.

Mark Carney said last week that the trade war and Brexit without a deal could drive the economy into depression and it could not cope without additional help. After these comments, investors increased interest rates on monetary policy easing in England.

Markets now include a 40% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. Therefore, sterling lost another potential factor for support.

Goldman Sachs estimated that last week, hedge funds increased their bearish position on the pound by $1.2 billion, to $2 billion.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold is unlikely to guess what the Fed's intentions are, but in any case it will not lose

analytics5d252740d1e41.jpg

Gold has stood on the verge of the longest weekly winning streak since 2011. However, after the release of a strong release on the US labor market for June, the precious metal exchange rate slumped by more than 1.6%.

The increase in the number of jobs in the US economy by 224 thousand reduced the likelihood of reducing the federal funds rate at the July Fed meeting by 50 basis points, from 40% to 8%.

It should be noted that gold is sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy, since the latter has an impact on both the US dollar exchange rate and the securities markets.

The dovish rhetoric of the Fed, the weakening of the US currency, the fall in Treasury yields, the worsening global risk appetite, the growth of geopolitical tensions in the world are the main bullish drivers for the XAU/USD pair.

The decline in the yield of the world debt market and the weakness of the main currencies against the background of the readiness of the leading central banks to soften monetary policy are strong arguments in favor of buying precious metals.

Apparently, the further dynamics of gold will depend on whether the US central bank will lower the federal funds rate at the next meeting or not.

Along with strong data on the US labor market in favor of maintaining the rate of 2.5% was the growth of three-year inflation expectations from the New York Federal Reserve Bank in June (from 2.5% to 2.7%), which increases the likelihood of inflation to return to a reference point of 2%.

At first glance it may seem that the preservation of the former parameters of the monetary policy of the Fed is a negative point for gold. However, in fact, in this situation, US stock indices may sharply go down, which, by analogy with December last year, could lead to a rise in the XAU/USD pair.

Monetary expansion by the Fed is also a "bullish" factor for gold, because in this case the greenback will weaken, and the yield of Treasuries will continue to go down.

In addition, given the fact that the central bank has been receiving incessant criticism from the head of the White House, Donald Trump, the latter's desire to weaken the USD for the 2020 presidential election is growing every day.

Standard Chartered analysts point out that the dollar weakened after the work of the three previous US administrations had expired due to the effect of depletion of fiscal stimulus. They expect that by the end of D. Trump's presidential term, the USD index will be below the levels at which he was at the time of the 2016 elections.

Thus, in order not to be undertaken by the Fed in July, gold can benefit from this, which makes it possible to consider buying on the decline with a target of $1,470- $ 1,490 for 1 ounce on the horizon of 3-6 months.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com