BITCOIN Analysis for December 4, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive amid the recent bullish momentum after a decline towards $3,700. The price is currently residing above $4,000 and inside the Kumo Cloud resistance below 200 EMA, whereas the dynamic levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line are supporting the price for a further climb. The Chikou Span has broken above the price line. MACD having no signs of Bearish Divergence indicates that there are more chances of price pushing higher towards $4,250. If it manages to break above it with a daily close, further bullish pressure may be observed. On the other hand, if the price remains below the 200 EMA and Kumo Cloud resistance, further bearish pressure can be seen in the future. As the price remains below $4,250, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,700

RESISTANCE: 4,250, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for December 4, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite impressive amid the impulsive bearish pressure today which pushed the price below 113.00 area. Despite mixed economic reports from Japan, JPY managed to gain momentum over USD ahead of high impact events like NFP and Rate Hike in the coming days.

USD started the week with severe weakness against JPY. Thus, USD could lose more strength. FED members recently stated that they would not react to every rise and fall which confused the market sentiment ahead of a rate hike this month which dealt a blow to the US currency. This week US ISM Manufacturing PMI report was published with a slight increase to 59.3 from the previous figure of 57.7 which was expected to decrease to 57.5 and Construction Spending report was published unchanged at -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.4%. Moreover, FOMC member Williams is due to speak about the upcoming interest rate and monetary policy decisions. Ahead of NFP this week which is expected to have mixed readings, USD is going to trade with an indecisive dynamic ahead of the policy meeting of the FOMC this month.

On the JPY side, recently Capital Spending report was published with a decrease to 4.5% from the previous value of 12.8% which was expected to be at 8.6% and Final Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 52.2 which was expected to be unchanged at 51.8. Today Japan's Monetary Base report was published with an increase to 6.1% from the previous value of 5.9% which was expected to decrease to 5.7%.

Japan will post an Average Cash Earnings report Friday which is expected to increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.8%. Thus, JPY is expected to gain further in the process. On the other hand, NFP reports are expected to reveal mixed data. Until USD comes up with solid economic reports or events in the coming days, JPY is expected to sustain its momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 113.00 area and dynamic level of 20 EMA which if have a daily close today, further bearish pressure leading the price towards 112.00 area is expected. The market is still quite volatile, and no definite trend pressure can be recognized currently. As the price remains below 114.50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 110.50, 112.00

RESISTANCE: 113.00, 114.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR / USD Daily. Prospects for the development of the movement in December 2018. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

The EUR / USD trend movement

Minor (Daily)

Euro vs US Dollar

Previous review from 11/16/2018 16:18 UTC + 3.

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The trend for the development of the single European currency pair in December 2018 will depend on the direction of the range breakdown : -> resistance level 1.1405 (upper limit of 1/2 Median Line channel wilh the Minute operating scale ); -> support level of 1.1340 (the final Shiff Line fork of the operating scale Minor ).

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Development trend of downward movement (sell)

Breakdown of support level 1.1340 ( final Shiff Line Minor ) -> EUR / USD movement to targets -> SSL start line ( 1.1295 ) of the forked operating scale Minute <-> Median Line Minor midline ( 1.1260 ) < -> local minimum 1.1216 <-> control line LTL Minute ( 1.1190 ) <-> lower limit ISL61.8 ( 1.0980a) balance zone of the fork of the operational scale Minor.

Details look at the animated graphics.

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Development trend of downward movement (buy)

Breakdown of resistance level 1.1340 -> development of EUR / USD movement in 1/2 channel Median Line Minute ( 1.1405 <-> 1.1470 <-> 1.1535 ), and in case of breakdown of resistance level 1.1535 ( crossing the upper limit of 1/2 channel Median Line Minute with an upper limit of the ISL38.2 balance zone of the fork of the operational scale Fork Minor ) movement of the single European currency will continue to the equilibrium zone ( 1.1595 <-> 1.1700 <-> 1.1815 ) of the operational scale of the Minute.

Details are shown in animated graphics.

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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions in the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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Materials for the study of analysis ZUP & APL `s.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 4, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD pair failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. Since then, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish under the depicted daily downtrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where another descending high around the depicted downtrend was established.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted consolidation-zone of (1.2750-1.2880) where the current sideway movement within the depicted H4 channel was initiated.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

Yesterday, a false bearish breakout was demonstrated below 1.2720. Moreover, early signs of bullish recovery are being demonstrated today.

Bullish persistence above 1.2780 (78.6% Fibo level) is mandatory to enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.2880 and 1.2940 where new trading decisions should be taken upon price action.

On the other hand, the current scenario may pursue a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish breakout below 1.2730 is achieved on lower timeframes quickly.

Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is initially located around 1.2600.

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USD/CAD breaking out of major ascending trend line support, prepare to sell!

USD/CAD has broken the major trend line support and we look to sell at 1.3246 (break out of ascending trend line support and horizontal overlap support) for a reversal to at least 1.3068 profit target (horizontal swing low support, 50% Fibonacci retracement).

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A pause in the US-China trade war: a temporary respite for the markets?

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Last weekend, on the margins of the G-20 summit, the leaders of the United States and Celestial Empire agreed to pause a trade war, at least until the end of the first quarter of next year.

It is assumed that the parties use a 90-day truce to form and conclude a trade agreement.

According to experts, there are two options for the development of events.

1. Fast and dynamic negotiation process and agreement. In this case, the United States may begin to put pressure on the PRC in order to achieve the best conditions for itself. In fact, this is the same trade lobby, only without the establishment of a rigid time frame.

2. The absence of points of contact and agreement by April. That is, within three months, China will actively stimulate its economy and domestic demand, support local banks and exporters, and by the middle of spring the world may see a new wave of trade aggression from America.

"This is not the first time Washington and Beijing are announcing victory. So far, they have managed to avoid the worst scenario that could provoke a further collapse of stock markets, but the real deal is still far away," said Michael Pillsbury, a specialist at the Hudson Institute.

"If the Americans are consistent, they will need to push the sale of goods to the Chinese no less than $ 190 billion a year. However, it is not yet clear how and at the expense of what the Celestial can, in principle, be able to provide this amount, not to mention whether it wants to go for it at all," said Raoul Leering, analyst at ING Group.

"In reality, the parties were able to achieve insignificant progress in the negotiations. At the moment, it only looks like a release of tension. The announced three-month truce only prolongs the period of uncertainty. We estimate the likelihood that the United States and China will agree on the abolition of additional duties, only 20%." said Goldman Sachs spokesman Alec Phillips.

Despite the fact that many today do not believe that a truce will grow into an agreement, a pause in a trade war can be beneficial to risky assets, as well as to the stock and currency markets.

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Brexit: The conclusion of the European Court supported the British pound

The British pound today recovered from its monthly lows, where it was due to the risks associated with Brexit.

The pound rose after the representative of the European Court stated that the UK could cancel the decision on Brexit without the consent of other EU countries. The conclusion of the European Court will be given a little later, but, as a rule, it coincides with the opinion of the representatives of the court.

According to the adviser to the European Court of Justice, Manuel Campos Sanchez-Bordona, the UK government has the right to unilaterally withdraw the decision from the European Union. If such a decision is made, the consent of other EU members is not required for this.

On the one hand, this has eased the pressure on the British pound, but the current conclusion is unlikely to lead to a larger increase in the future. The whole movement will continue to be built on the decision of the British Parliament, which will be announced on December 11.

Today's statement by the adviser to the European Court also creates a number of problems for British Prime Minister Theresa May, which will make it even harder to convince parliamentarians of the need to sign an agreement on Brexit. Any arguments of Theresa May can be refuted by the possibility of unilaterally making decisions and completely abandoning Brexit without economic problems for the UK, thus avoiding an uncontrolled exit of the country from the EU.

However, it should be noted that the current decision does not mean that the UK will not have to fulfill a number of conditions. If it is suddenly decided to maintain EU membership, the UK Parliament will also need to approve it.

The data released today on the purchasing managers index for the construction sector supported the British pound in the morning.

According to a report by IHS Markit, the purchasing managers index for the UK construction sector rose to 53.4 points in November from 53.2 points in October. A value above 50 indicates an increase in activity. IHS Markit noted that strong growth was directly related to overall performance in the construction sector, and not in particular in any particular area.

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Regarding the technical picture of the British pound, despite the large growth today in the first half of the day, the further upward trend is limited by the same large resistance level around 1.2840, which was not possible to get outside last week. Only the breakthrough will lead to a stronger correction with the highs around 1.2880 1.2930. In the event of a decrease in the pound, which may occur at any time on the Brexit news, support will be at least last month around 1.2720, a breakthrough which will result in a major sale in the 1.2660 and 1.2570 area.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on December 4. Good news for Brexit led to a rise in the British pound

To open long positions on GBP / USD pair, you need:

News that the UK may cancel the decision on Brexit without the consent of other EU countries, led to an increase in the pound in the morning. However, as we can see on the graph, it is not yet possible to cope with the large resistance of 1.2823. The task for the second half of the day will be a breakthrough at 1.2823 with access to the next weekly maximum in the area of 1.2880, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a downward GBP / USD correction, you can take a closer look at long positions from support at 1.2778, which also stands in the middle of the side channel.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Bears are faced with the task of keeping the pair below the resistance of 1.2823 and the formation of a false breakdown there will lead to a downward correction in the pound to the area of the middle of the channel 1.2778, where I recommend taking profits. Today's news on Brexit, by itself, does not affect the medium-term growth prospects of the pound, hence, the volatility will remain quite high until the decision of the parliament. A breakthrough of 1.2778 may lead to an immediate sale of GBP/USD pair to a monthly minimum of 1.2722, where I recommend taking profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, but this does not mean the formation of a new upward wave.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound, long positions can return immediately to the rebound from the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the area of 1.2745.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 4. Conclusion of the European Court supported the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers have broken through the resistance level of 1.1400 in the morning and are trying to gain a foothold on it. The European Court of Brexit decision supports the euro, which could lead to a further increase in the EUR/USD pair and an update of the maximum around 1.1433. However, the main purpose of the bulls will be testing the resistance level of 1.1471, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decline and a return below the level of 1.1400 in the second half of the day, long positions are best considered for a rebound from the support of 1.1365.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers are still not in a hurry to return to the market, and therefore it is best to rely on short positions after updating the daily maximum around 1.1433 or to rebound from a larger resistance 1.1471. The main task of the bears in the afternoon will be returning and consolidating below the level of 1.1400, which will lead to a fixed profit and a decrease in EUR/USD pair to the support area of 1.1365, where I recommend taking profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of an upward movement.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline in the euro, long positions can return immediately to the rebound from the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the 1.1365 area.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Oil groped bottom

The worst monthly dynamics over the past decade has changed for oil, the best two-day increase since June, thanks to friendship. Warm meeting of Mohammed bin Salman and Vladimir Putin, as well as a joint dinner of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, inspire hope for solving several problems of the bulls in Brent and WTI. On the one hand, there are growing risks of production cuts following the OPEC meeting on December 6. On the other hand, the de-escalation of the trade conflict can have a positive effect on global demand for black gold. The market had a reason for the correction to the "bearish" trend, and he hurried to use it.

If Russia can afford lower oil prices, then for Saudi Arabia, this is highly undesirable. The question is, by what size will Riyadh persuade Moscow to cut production? According to Reuters, the Kremlin is ready for 140 thousand b / d, the cartel would like to receive from it 250-300 thousand b / d. In one of the previous materials, I noted that there was still a third player in the face of the United States, but the cooling of relations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump after the incident in the Kerch Strait does not allow discussing the option under which the Russian Federation is increasing production. The states believe that they will do without Russia in such an important matter as the reduction of the cost of black gold. Let them continue to think so.

Dynamics of oil production growth

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The loud statements of Saudi Arabia on the eve of the OPEC summit on December 6 about the need to stabilize the market by joint efforts and that Riyadh alone does not intend to cut production, are focused more on the cartel. Formally, the meeting may be about a proportional reduction in production by 3-3.5% from October levels, however, it is obvious that each of the participating countries will bear an individual load. The total volume of cuts (together with Russia) can reach 1.3-1.4 million b / s.

From the point of view of the proposal, the support of the "bulls" for Brent and WTI was provided by Canada's statement to reduce production by 325 thousand b / d. The government intends to unload the warehouses and put an end to the crisis in the oil industry. The requirements of the official Ottawa to manufacturing companies will be valid until the end of 2019, although the volume of reductions is planned to be gradually reduced.

As for the truce in the trade wars, its influence on the black gold market is manifested in two main areas. First, the States will not temporarily impose duties on all Chinese imports. If this happened, the economy of the Middle Kingdom, according to the calculations of the Financial Times, already in 2019 would have slowed down by 1-1.5 pp China is the largest consumer of oil, so the positive news has become a catalyst for the attack of the bulls in Brent and WTI. Secondly, the de-escalation of the conflict leads to a weakening of the American dollar, which should also be considered as good news for black gold.

Technically, after reaching the target of 113% for the "Shark" pattern, a regular rebound followed. The probability of development of correction in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave is high.

Brent, the daily chart

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 4, 2018

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On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish consolidations are maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

A quick bullish advance was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances a further bullish advance towards 1.1520 and 1.1610.

On the other hand, if an early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes, a quick decline should be expected towards 1.1270 and 1.1170-1.1150.

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GBP/USD analysis for December 04, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2839. According to the M30 time – frame, I found that GBP/USD is trading above the pivot resistance 1, which is a sign that the pair is gaining momentum. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.2870.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for December 4, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite volatile and corrective while residing inside the corrective range of 1.1200 to 1.1500 area for a few days in a row. Despite the strong likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve and persistent standoff between Italy and the EU, EUR managed to gain and sustain certain momentum, leading to more indecision and volatility.

This week EUR has been quite firm amid economic reports published recently. As a result, the currency gain impulsive momentum inside the bearish trend. There are certain measures taken by European Union today to ban money laundering on digital revenues. Moreover, the EU provided certain time for Italy to prepare a better budget proposal with a view of reducing debts than in the previous version, which whas been rejected earlier. Today French Government Budget Balance report was published with a slight increase to -87.0B from the previous figure of -87.1B and Spanish Unemployment Change report was published with a notable decrease to -1.8k from the previous figure of 52.2k which was expected to be at 34.2k. Moreover, along with ECOFIN Meeting being held today, PPI report was published with an increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to decrease to 0.5%.

On the other hand, FED has been quite neutral. Some officials stated that they would not respond to every rise and fall in stocks that confused the market sentiment ahead of a rate hike this month. Nevertheless, this was bearish for USD. This week US ISM Manufacturing PMI report was published with a slight increase to 59.3 from the previous figure of 57.7 which was expected to decrease to 57.5 and Construction Spending report was published unchanged at -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.4%. The mixed economic data confused the market, leading to certain weakness of USD and impulsive EUR gains today. FOMC member Williams is yet to speak about the upcoming interest rate and monetary policy decisions. Ahead of NFP this week which is expected to reveal mixed readings as well, USD is expected to be quite indecisive and slow with the progress ahead of the rate hike this month.

Meanwhile, further volatility and correction is expected in this pair. EUR found support from economic reports. USD is gaining ground with the sentimental bias ahead of Rate Hike this month. After NFP, the market will be able to express sentiment in this pair, leading to a certain trend direction before the year end.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.1430-1.1500 resistance area while being in the bearish trend with certain volatility. As the price remains below 1.1500 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue in the pair with a target towards 1.1200 area in the coming days. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 1.1500 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to convert to bullish resulting to price pushing higher towards 1.1600-50 area in the future.

SUPPORT: 1.1200, 1.1300

RESISTANCE: 1.1430, 1.1500, 1.1600-50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Italian authorities will present the EU a new draft budget

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Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that the authorities will submit to the European Union a new draft state budget for 2019 to replace the draft previously rejected twice by the European Commission.

The main goal of the Italian government J. Conte called the prevention of sanctions against Italy, which will inevitably harm not only Italy itself but also Europe as a whole. The Prime Minister also noted that the new project will contain proposals that the European Commission cannot fail to satisfy.

According to the parameters of the new draft budget, the initially anticipated deficit of 2.4% of GDP can be reduced, but the politician has not voiced specific figures.

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The cost of palladium beats records

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According to experts, by the end of trading on Monday, December 3, the cost of palladium updated the historical maximum, reaching $ 1,223 for 1 ounce. The metal rose in price by a record of 47%, exceeding the historical peak.

Since the beginning of this year, this precious metal has risen in price by 14.5%. Until mid-August, the price of palladium decreased, reaching an annual minimum of $ 834 per 1 ounce. In early autumn of 2018, the cost of the metal was constantly growing, experts emphasize.

Currently, the global market is experiencing a boom caused by a truce in the trade conflict between the United States and China. Recall, US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a meeting at the G20 summit agreed on a temporary interaction in trade relations. The leaders of the countries committed themselves not to introduce new reciprocal duties for three months and to agree on mutually beneficial cooperation. "This truce does not solve all trade problems but gives a respite to the markets. In the future, this can help the entire global market," experts of the leading bank Goldman Sachs believe.

In general, experts record an optimistic attitude among the participants of the precious metals market. Metals such as gold, silver, and platinum, are actively rising in price. The cost of the yellow metal reached $ 1233.14 per troy ounce, for the white metal they gave $ 14.51 per ounce, and the price of platinum was $ 810. Analysts also point out the rising value of the currencies of developing countries (EM).

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AUD / USD. Calm RBA meeting and Australian optimism

Today, the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the members of which did not present any surprises, took place. The regulator listed the existing risks and noted some progress, in particular in the labor market. But in general, the rhetoric was balanced, without any hints of a "hawkish" or "pigeon" character.

Nevertheless, the Australian dollar reacted positively to this meeting. In tandem with the American currency, it updated the multi-month highs, testing the 74th figure. In my opinion, such dynamics is only indirectly related to the December meeting of the RBA. The regulator retained the status quo, and for the development of the northern AUD / USD dynamics, more was not required of it. After all, the main locomotive of the growth of Aussie is China, or rather, the prospects for the American-Chinese truce.

The financial world reacted calmly enough to the outcome of the G-20 summit. Contrary to ghostly hopes, the United States and China did not make a trade deal, although the parties worked on developing it for several weeks. But in such a relatively short time, the working group failed to resolve large-scale contradictions, so the leaders of the superpowers had to hold a meeting at the G20 "in a warm friendly atmosphere", but without practical benefit. The fact that Trump agreed not to introduce new duties can be ignored, since he himself initiated them literally one week before the summit. In other words, the foreign exchange market reacted quite adequately to the results of the Argentine meeting, since the de facto parties only agreed to work on the draft transaction.

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The Australian dollar has become an exception in this context. Over the past ten years, China has been Australia's largest trading partner, both in export and in import. The second largest trading partner is the United States, bilateral trade between countries amounts to tens of billions of dollars. Therefore, many months of confrontation between the United States and China have a negative effect on the economy of the island nation, and the Australian dollar, in turn, painfully reacts to any manifestations of an escalation of a trade war. For example, when Trump announced his intention to introduce additional duties of $ 237 billion, the AUD / USD pair lost over a hundred points in a few hours.

Now that the light at the end of the tunnel was looming for AUD / USD traders, the Aussie shot overcoming strong resistance levels. This is despite the fact that negotiations at a high representative level (for example, the Chinese delegation will be headed by the Vice Premier of the PRC) will only begin on December 15, and now there is only the intention of the leaders of the countries to reach a compromise. Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, on one of the TV channels, said that the Chinese had expressed their willingness to open local markets for American business. He did not dwell on other details of the future deal, limiting himself to general phrases. Apparently, he himself is not sure about the results of the upcoming three-month negotiations and even more so he cannot know about specific compromise solutions. "Soon we will understand whether we can make a bargain," said Mnuchin.

But his "chief" Donald Trump was more optimistic in his assessments. Using the usual method of communication, Twitter, he said that the Argentine meeting with Xi Jinping was "just incredible." According to him, the Chinese will benefit greatly if the deal is concluded, and future relations will be built on equal terms.

Thus, the Australian dollar is growing "in advance", only on the optimism of the leaders of the United States and China, and also on the eve of bilateral negotiations. The position of the RBA allows the bulls AUD / USD to build up muscles. The regulator said today that it expects a gradual increase in wages and a gradual increase in inflation. In addition, the Central Bank stated that the labor market is still showing strong results, so the positive dynamics in this area will continue.

As a counterbalance to such optimistic estimates, the regulator added that household income growth rates are still low, while debt levels are quite high. This problem has already existed for a long time (at least a few years), but it does not bother the RBA enough to change the parameters of monetary policy towards easing. In other words, the weighted position of the Australian Central Bank against the background of the G20 totals allows Aussie to continue to demonstrate the northern mood.

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From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows. The price of AUD / USD is traded in an upward trend movement, which is confirmed by the fact that it is above the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and all the lines of this indicator (on the daily chart). A confirmation of the bullish mood is the fact that the price is on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which shows the expanded channel. In turn, the MACD and Stochastic oscillators also talk about the priority of the northern movement, as they are in the overbought area. Thus, the aim of the upward testing is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which corresponds to the mark of 0.7450. The level of support is the Tenkan-sen line (on D1) and the mark of 0.7300.

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Bitcoin analysis for December 04, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time – frame, BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $3.900. Anyway, I found that BTC is still in the short – term downward trend. The price is trading below the Ichimoku and below the supply trendline in the background, which is another sign of the short-term downward trend. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3.700 and at the price of $3.453.

Support/Resistance

$4.000 – Intraday resistance

$3.820– Intraday support

$3.700 – Objective target 1

$3.453 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Has the dollar rally come to the finish or is it a calm before the jolt?

The dollar began to give up after the fall in the yield of US Treasury securities, the value of which dropped to three-month lows. Investors are seriously concerned that a pause may form in the cycle of raising the Fed rates. In addition, the inversion of the yield curve shows signs of impending recession.

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The fall in US government bond yields is a negative factor for the dollar, especially when compared to major currencies. The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year bonds is a key indicator for investors since inversion is seen as a harbinger of recession. The yield curve is inverted when the yield on bonds with a later maturity is lower than that of short-term bonds. At present, the yield curve is smoothed as the continuing increase in interest rates raises the yield of short-term securities, while the longer-term yield is falling amid inflation and a slowdown in global growth. Currently, the US Treasury yields are near critical levels of support, where a breakout could seriously increase the pressure on the dollar.

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In addition, the dollar is under pressure from a temporary truce in the trade conflict between the United States and China, which has increased investors' appetite for more risky currencies. In addition, the currency is under pressure by a softer tone from the Fed. Currencies such as the Chinese yuan, which suffered during the trade war between the United States and China, are expected to trade more strongly against the dollar in the coming weeks as investor sentiment improves.

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Falling global oil prices threaten US investment

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According to a number of experts, the collapse of oil prices on the world market of black gold has a negative impact on investments in key sectors of the US economic sector.

Leading experts agree that November of this year was the worst month for oil prices in the last 10 years. Experts believe that the reason for this is fears related to the global oversupply of raw materials.

Recall that in October 2018, after the maximum recovery in the last four years, oil quotes have collapsed by more than 30%. At the moment, a huge amount of oil in the United States is extracted from a variety of shale deposits. These wells are rapidly depleting, so the continued participation of small drilling companies is required to restore the balance. These companies need borrowed funds, experts say. A drop in oil prices may lead to large-scale bankruptcies of American companies or a sharp reduction in investment in this production, experts explain. A number of large shale oil producers, such as Whiting Petroleum Corp. and EOG Resources Inc., warned that in the event of a collapse in oil prices below $ 50 per barrel, they would reduce drilling volumes.

According to Jeff Curry, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, the rapid collapse of oil prices up to $ 50 per barrel will adversely affect the raw materials industry in the United States. The expert draws attention to the fact that the fall in prices for black gold will cause serious problems for the country's credit market. The analyst considers the most acceptable oil prices to be in the range of $ 65 to $ 70 per barrel. Such a cost of black gold in the world market will suit the majority of consumers, I am convinced, J. Curry. This price range will create a stable environment for the US industrial sector, the expert believes.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 4. The lack of optimistic news background plays against the pound

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading session on December 3, the GBP / USD currency pair lost only about 25 basis points and broke through the minimum of the estimated wave b. Thus, the current wave marking is complicated and takes on a non-standard look. The minimum of the wave from the three-wave descending structure of the waves is not broken, nevertheless, the wave originating on November 7 can go beyond this minimum and complete its construction near it. Thus, despite the breakthrough of important support, the pair still retains the possibility of building an upward wave with targets located around 32 figures.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2935 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD still retains the chances of building a rising wave. The wave structure, which takes its beginning on October 30, gets a very complex form, but this does not negate the option of building an upward wave from. First of all, now I recommend caution when opening any transactions. The breakthrough of the 100.0% Fibonacci level will significantly increase the chances of the pair to continue falling, at least to 26 figure.

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EUR/USD analysis for December 04, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1418. According to the H1 time – frame, I found that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and that price did breakout of the resistance cluster in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found that price is above the cloud on 6 different time – frames, which is another sign of the short – term strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1470.

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GBP / USD. December 4th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". All the focus on Mark Carney

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -62.2178

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, December 4, resumed the downward movement, once again failing to overcome the moving. So far, the currency pair has been trading near the local price lows, around the important support zone of 1.2700 - 1.2700. However, it seems that this area will not save the pound from a new fall. There is still plenty of time before the vote on the Brexit project in the UK Parliament. And all this time, the British currency will be in limbo, in a state of uncertainty. This means that sales, as before, are more preferable. Not to mention the fact that even from a technical point of view, downward movement is more likely, since all indicators are directed downwards. To date, in the UK, scheduled the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. His last performance was remembered by many, as Carney said that he did not know what consequences the UK would have in the case of Brexit. In the case of a disordered Brexit, without a "deal", it will be even worse. Already, there are forecasts of rating agencies on a significant reduction in GDP by 2030, as well as the amount of annual monetary losses of the country due to its exit from the EU. This time, Carney, if he touches the Brexit topic at all, is unlikely to be optimistic and radically change his rhetoric. Therefore, in the best case for the pound sterling, the head of the Bank of England will simply not touch the subject of Brexit.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2726

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2665

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2756

R2 - 1.2787

R3 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to be below the MA, therefore it is now recommended to continue to trade for a fall with targets of 1.2695 and 1.2634. One closed purple bar does not signal the beginning of a correction, as it is too small.

Buy positions with targets at 1.2817 and 1.2848 in small lots can be opened if traders overcome a moving average line. However,l the pound sterling has no fundamental grounds for more or less serious strengthening.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. December 4th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Technical factor: a chance for a small increase in the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 79.5758

The currency pair EUR / USD on Tuesday, December 4, has once again consolidated above the moving average line. However, the potential for growth in the euro currency is still limited. We still believe that the Eurocurrency can now only rely on technical corrections, although, perhaps, the bottom of the pair has already felt. The problem for the euro is that there is still a lack of a strong fundamental background from the eurozone or a weak one from the States. Despite the fact that there were hints at the completion of the Fed rate increase program in 2019, so far these are only hints. In Europe, macroeconomic statistics do not make traders happy with the improvement, the European Commission cannot agree with the Italian government on the budget issue, and the whole Brexit procedure is under threat of failure due to the reluctance of the British parliament to accept Theresa May's initiatives. This does not mean that the growth of the euro currency is impossible, but the chances for a new fall are much greater. On Tuesday, no important macroeconomic reports are expected from either the States or Europe. Thus, technical factors today will be of paramount importance. Since the price has overcome the moving average, the uptrend in the short term will continue up to the reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has once again fixed above the MA. Thus, today it is recommended to consider purchase orders with a target of 1.1414 (the second target is 1.1475). Manually closing long positions is recommended in the case of 1-2 bar color with Heikin Ashi indicator in blue.

Sell orders will again become relevant no earlier than price fixing below the moving average line with a target of 1.1292. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will again pass into the hands of bears.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on December 4. The level of 1.13 saves the euro from a new fall

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the European currency, after the rebound from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303, and began the process of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1423. The end of the course of the pair on December 4 from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0%. There are no emerging divergences today. Fixing quotations above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the pair's chances for further growth.

The Fib net is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair, after rebounding from the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285, reversed in favor of the euro and started to grow in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing quotations of the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and expect a resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0% since the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 1.1303.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair bounces the correction level of 1.1423.

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Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for December 4th. A new level of support for the pound - 1.2700

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart performed a second rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2812 and resumed its fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. Rejection of quotes from the correction level of 100.0% will allow traders to rely on a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4%. Fixing the pair below the correction level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing the fall towards the next Fibo level of 127.2%.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, after a new rebound from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2809, the pair completed a fall to the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.2696 and rebound from it. As a result, a reversal was made in favor of the pound sterling, and the pair began to grow in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4%. The ripening divergences on December 4th are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the course of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to expect a continuation of the fall in quotations in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.2567.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 100.0%, since the pair completed the rebound from the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

New sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.2567 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0%, if the closing is completed below the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

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Global interest in the dollar is unlikely to fade away

On Monday, the US dollar rate remained under pressure against the backdrop of the outcome of negotiations between Washington and Beijing on customs duties.

The reduction in tensions between the two largest economies in the world led to a global weakening of the US dollar, which began even before the G20 leaders meeting, to lose the growth rate against the backdrop of first statements by some Fed members that it might be necessary to reduce the rate of increase in interest rates for signals of a slowdown in the economy of America, and then the very leader of the Federal Reserve, J. Powell, who made it clear that the level of interest rates is not far from neutral.

It also begins to escalate the tension and negative yield difference between the 3 and 5-year government bonds of the US Treasury, which signals the inversion of the yield curve, which previously clearly indicated an approaching recession.

In this situation, the question arises, will the dollar continue to decline further? So far, on the wave of optimism caused by the outcome of the G-20 summit, there is a demand for risky assets. But will it last long?

As we see the rise of optimism in world markets, including foreign exchange, will be limited. This is due to several reasons. In the first place, the agreement between Washington and Beijing in the trade war is more of a truce, since it was concluded only for 90 days, and not for a longer period of time. The "suspended" domestic political state of D. Trump, in view of his changeable nature, can lead to the fact that he will again begin to put pressure on China in order to obtain new preferences in trade. And this, in turn, may be the cause of a new wave of confrontation, with all the ensuing consequences for world markets. And in this situation, the US currency may again begin to receive significant support.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that the process of economic slowdown is observed not only in China, the United States, but also in the eurozone, the third largest economy in the world. Understanding such risks, it is unlikely that other central banks, such as Canadian, Australian or New Zealand, as well as many others, will follow the course of active increase in interest rates, which ultimately will keep investor interest in the dollar when the new economic downturn begins.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD / USD currency pair is consolidating following the RBA meeting above the level of 0.7340. If the demand for risk begins to subside, then the pair after falling below this level may fall to 0.7280.

The currency pair GBP / USD is trading above 1.2700. It is negatively affected by the prospect of a new government crisis in Britain due to the possible announcement of a vote of no confidence in T. May due to the disastrous situation with Brexit. If the price falls below 1.2700, then there is a probability of its decline to 1.2620.

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Simplified wave analysis of USD / CHF for the week of December 4

Large-scale graphics:

The main trend direction of the franc in the main pair since February sets the uptrend. There is a clear sequence (ABC) in the wave.

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Medium scale graphics:

The wave is rising, starting from September 21. The middle part of the wave (B) is formed in the movement structure.

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Small scale graphics:

The descending wave of November 13 is relevant. Given its corrective nature in a larger model, the price movement occurs mainly in the "side". The wave lacks the final phase (C).

Forecast and recommendations:

This week, intersessional trading style advocates will be able to make short-term sales. For longer investments, you need to wait for the completion of the entire wave of correction.

Resistance zones:

- 1.0000 / 1.0050

Support areas:

- 0.9870 / 0.9820

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted, the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 4

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the upward structure of November 28 will continue to develop after the breakdown of 1.1366. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we are following the downward cycle of November 22 and we consider the movement upwards as a correction. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of November 29 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 0.9998. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in deep correction from the rising structure and we expect a further upward movement after the breakdown of 114.02. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 129.34 and the level of 128.33 is the key support. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we are following the downward structure of November 28 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 144.10.

Forecast for December 4:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1477, 1.1429, 1.1414, 1.1392, 1.1364, 1.1297, 1.1266, 1.1233 and 1.1206. Here, the price is in equilibrium. The breakdown of the level of 1.1297 will lead to the development of a downward structure from November 30. In this case, the first goal is 1.1266 and the breakdown of which, in turn, must be accompanied by a pronounced move to the level of 1.1233. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1206, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1364. Here, the first target is 1.1392 and the breakdown of which will continue the development of the upward structure from November 28. In this case, the target is 1.1414 and consolidation is near this level. The passage at the price of the range of 1.1414 - 1.1429 will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1477, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1364 Take profit: 1.1390

Buy 1.1392 Take profit: 1.1414

Sell: 1.1295 Take profit: 1.1268

Sell: 1.1264 Take profit: 1.1235

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2827, 1.2786, 1.2747, 1.2691, 1.2658, 1.2613 and 1.2583. Here, we are following the downward structure of November 22. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2691 - 1.2658 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2613. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2583, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2747 - 1.2786 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 1.2827 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local downward cycle of November 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2747 Take profit: 1.2784

Buy: 1.2788 Take profit: 1.2825

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2659

Sell: 1.2655 Take profit: 1.2614

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0058, 1.0037, 1.0022, 0.9998, 0.9964, 0.9945 and 0.9915. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure from November 29th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9998. In this case, the goal is 1.0022 and in the range of 1.0022 - 1.0037 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0058, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9964 - 0.9945 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 29. In this case, the first potential target is 0.9915.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9998 Take profit: 1.0020

Buy: 1.0037 Take profit: 1.0056

Sell: 0.9964 Take profit: 0.9947

Sell: 0.9943 Take profit: 0.9915

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.91, 114.52, 114.34, 114.02, 113.67, 113.45 and 113.07. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of November 20. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 114.02. In this case, the goal is 114.34 and in the range of 114.34 - 114.52 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 114.91, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, is possible in the range of 113.45 - 113.07. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 112.57.

The main trend is the rising structure of November 20, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 114.04 Take profit: 114.34

Buy: 114.52 Take profit: 114.90

Sell: 113.44 Take profit: 113.12

Sell: 113.05 Take profit: 112.65

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3269, 1.3240, 1.3219, 1.3164, 1.3149, 1.3116 and 1.3070. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 28. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.3164 - 1.3149. In this case, the target is 1.3116. The potential value for the downward trend is considered the level of 1.3070, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3219 - 1.3240 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3269 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3220 Take profit: 1.3240

Buy: 1.3242 Take profit: 1.3267

Sell: 1.3147 Take profit: 1.3116

Sell: 1.1314 Take profit: 1.3075

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7506, 0.7457, 0.7425, 0.7383, 0.7337, 0.7314 and 0.7279. Here, we are following the rising structure of November 27. We continue the upward movement after the breakdown of 0.7383. In this case, the target is 0.7425 and the breakdown of which will allow us to expect a movement to 0.7457, near this level is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7506, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7337 - 0.7314 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7279 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of November 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7385 Take profit: 0.7425

Buy: 0.7427 Take profit: 0.7455

Sell: 0.7335 Take profit: 0.7316

Sell: 0.7311 Take profit: 0.7280

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 130.45, 130.05, 129.76, 129.34, 128.89, 128.64 and 128.33. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of November 23. We expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 129.34. In this case, the goal is 129.76 and in the range of 129.76 - 130.05 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 130.45, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 128.89 - 128.64. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 128.33 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 23.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.36 Take profit: 129.74

Buy: 129.78 Take profit: 130.05

Sell: 128.62 Take profit: 128.33

Sell: 128.30 Take profit: 127.80

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 145.17, 144.86, 144.65, 144.10, 143.63 and 143.30. Here, we are following the downward structure of November 28th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.10. In this case, the target is 143.63. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 143.30, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 144.65 - 144.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 145.17 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of November 28. Its price passage will have the formation of the upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 145.80.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.86 Take profit: 145.15

Buy: 145.20 Take profit: 145.80

Sell: 144.10 Take profit: 143.65

Sell: 143.60 Take profit: 144.30

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 04, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.0142 or heigher. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9860.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 04, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair is still above the level of 1.3154 since last week. Now, the current price is set at 1.3160. On the H4 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3360 and 1.3531. Besides, the weekly support 1 is seen at the level of 1.3360. Today, the USD/CAD pair is continuing to move in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.3154, to form a bullish channel. Amid the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.3154 and 1.3360. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.3360 with the first target at 1.3360 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3531 in coming days. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.3360, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.3360. The market will decline further to 1.3154 in order to return to the weekly pivot point. Additionally, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.3027.

Comment:

The weekly pivot is seen at the level of 1.3154.

The market is still in an uptrend. We still prefer the bullish scenario.

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EURUSD: Euro growth potential remains, while traders ignore weak data for the Eurozone

China and the United States continue to move around the market. Yesterday, the Treasury Secretary said that it would be a real agreement.

First of all, the trade agreement will cover intellectual property, technology and currency issues, which in the future will support the growth of employment in the United States. The US Treasury Secretary also noted that in the absence of a real agreement, the fees would be increased.

Data on manufacturing activity was released yesterday, putting pressure on the euro, but buyers managed to cope with it. According to the report, a decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector was observed in France and Germany, but only in Italy, the PMI supply managers for the manufacturing sector in November remained below 50 points and amounted to 48.6 points against 49.2 points in October. The main decline is associated with a reduction in production and new orders by Italian companies.

According to IHS Markit, the PMI purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector in the eurozone dropped to 51.8 points in November of this year, while in October the eurozone manufacturing PMI was 52.0 points. Economists had expected the index to drop to 51.5 points.

Regular weak fundamental data on the Eurozone once again confirm the fact that the growth rates of the economy at the end of this year began to slow down again, which will affect the actions of the European Central Bank in the future.

As for the US data, activity in the US manufacturing sector in November of this year, on the contrary, continued its growth due to the demand for American goods and an increase in employment in the sector. According to the report of the Institute for Supply Management, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector in November 2018 rose to 59.3 points against 57.7 points in October. Index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity. Economists had expected the index to be 57.9 points in November.

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Expenses in the US construction sector declined in October, which is directly related to seasonal fluctuations. According to the US Department of Commerce, expenses decreased by 0.1% compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.309 trillion US dollars per annum. Economists had expected spending to rise 0.3% in October. Compared with the same period of the previous year, total construction costs in October rose by 4.9%.

The speech of the Fed representatives yesterday did not greatly affect the market.

Interesting statements were made by Neil Kashkari, who still considers the increase in interest rates a bad idea. Qashqari noted that low-key inflation is not an argument in favor of raising rates, and the Fed has plenty of time to determine if a warmed-up labor market will provoke a rise in inflation. The Fed representative also believes that full employment has not yet been achieved and the potential for growth in the labor market will remain fairly good in the future.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. The bulls are still aimed at a large resistance level of 1.1400, a breakthrough of which will lead to a stronger upward trend in the euro, with the highs around 1.1440 and 1.1480. In the case of a decline, major support levels are seen in the 1.1310 area.

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Simplified wave analysis of EUR / GBP pair for the week of December 4

Large-scale graph:

The last wave structure on the H4 is at the end of the upward wave correction of the day scale. From mid-April, the wave has formed an ascending plane.

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Medium scale graph:

The scale shows the vector of the main price moving downward close to the H1 timeframe. To date, the wave has been completed and has taken the place of correction (B) in the structure of the H4 model.

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Small-scale graph:

From November 13, the price forms an ascending formation. In recent weeks, the middle part is formed in the flat and a price increase will follow (C) after its completion.

Forecast and recommendations:

A small growth potential this week is expected this week, which will allow purchases of supporters of short-term transactions. A longer investment condition in the market is not created for the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 0.9030 / 0.9080

Support areas:

- 0.8870 / 0.8820

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Trading plan for 12/04/2018

Yesterday, the single European currency managed to improve its position against the dollar, in contrast to the pound. Although in the middle of the day, both currencies were rapidly losing their positions due to the growing optimism of investors in connection with the interim agreement between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China. The world's largest economies have agreed not to increase customs duties on a number of goods since next year. This news significantly reduces the tension and risks of the growth of trade protectionism, which is very much concerned about large investors and international corporations. So it is not surprising that against this background, the dollar began to strengthen, as the US is the largest importer and one of the largest exporters, and trade wars, according to many, can cause serious damage to the American economy. But then the dollar was under pressure due to negative statistics. In particular, the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector fell from 55.7 to 55.3, while preliminary data showed its decline to 55.4. In turn, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Europe also fell from 52.0 to 51.8, although it was projected to decline to 51.5. That is, in the US, data were worse than forecasts, and was better in Europe. But the pound, despite the growth of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 51.1 to 53.1, although it was able to recoup some of the losses caused by the agreements between China and the United States, at the end of the day was still in the red. The situation with the pound due to the banal fear of the upcoming consideration in the British Parliament of an agreement with the European Union. There is every reason to believe that everything will result in the resignation of Theresa May and early elections.

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Most likely, today will be quite calm. In the United States, no data are available, and the growth rate of producer prices in Europe should remain unchanged. And only in the UK is the projected decline in the business activity index in the construction sector from 53.2 to 52.5. But the pound is under pressure because of the situation with Brexit.

The euro/dollar currency pair, practicing the level of 1.1300, once again jumped to the periodic value of 1.1400, leaving behind the impulse candles. It is likely to assume a slowdown within the value of 1,1400, where it is possible to make a stretch of orders.

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The GBP/USD currency pair, showing a downward temporary active interest, went to the band level of 1,2720/1,2770. Likely assume that the oscillation is within the boundaries of the level tracking accurate fixing.

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