Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 13, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-one-month low of 107.26 this morning. Liquidity was thin as financial markets in Japan, U.S. and Canada are shut today for public holidays. USD/JPY is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 13.22% to 21.24, S&P 500 fell 1.15% to close at 1,906.13 Friday) as worries persist over slowing global economic growth. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.305% versus 2.327% late Thursday), buy-yen orders from Japan exporters and concern among some Federal Reserve officials about USD's strength. Fed's Evans said on Saturday that a stronger dollar is a headwind as it will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to meet its inflation mandate and will impede growth. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the sell-yen orders from the Japanese importers, broadly firmer USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 85.72 versus 85.55 early Friday) on outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies and smaller-than-expected 0.5% on-month drop in the U.S. September import price index (versus forecast -0.7%).


Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although latter at oversold, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 107. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 106.75. The pivot point stands at 107.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 108.20 and the second target at 108.50.


Resistance levels:

108.20

108.50

108.80


Support levels:

107

106.75

106.45


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 13, 2014

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is supported by the broadly firmer USD undertone, franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross and also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.305% versus 2.327% late Thursday) and concerns among some Federal Reserve officials about USD's strength. Fed's Evans said on Saturday that a stronger dollar is a headwind as it will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to meet its inflation mandate and will impede growth.


Technical comments:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bearish mode but stochastics is turning neutral.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9495. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9465. The pivot point stands at 0.9550. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.96 and the second target at 0.9650.


Resistance levels:

0.96

0.9650

0.9685



Support levels:


0.9495

0.9465

0.9420


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 13, 2014

1413205166_NZDUSDM30.png


Fundamental overview:


Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bullish mode but stochastics is turning bearish.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7920 and the second target at 0.7960. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7785. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7745. The pivot point is at 0.7820.


Resistance levels:

0.7920

0.7960

0.8005



Support levels:


0.7785

0.7765

0.7745


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 13, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. Weighed by broadly firmer USD undertone and sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the expectations that the BOE would raise interest rates in early 2015 ahead of the Federal Reserve and narrower-than-expected U.K. August global goods trade deficit of GBP 9.1 billion (versus forecast GBP 9.7 billion) and sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross and on buoyant GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD crosses.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 171.60. The pivot point stands at 173.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 174.05 and the second target at 174.35.


Resistance levels:

174.05

174.35

175

Support levels:

172

171.60

171.25


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Analysis of gold for October 13, 2014

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GOLDH413.png


Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,228.00. There is very low activity on the market and we are waiting for larger volume and price action. Our resistance level at the price of 1,230.00 held successful, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. According to the daily chart, we can observe weak demand in a volume above the average. If the price breaks the level of 1,234.00 in a high volume, we may see the testing of the level of 1,244.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). Anyway, since gold has started bearish corrective phase, I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,214.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,202.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,232.42


R2: 1,234.28


R3: 1,237.80


Support levels


S1: 1,225.78


S2: 1,223.72


S3: 1,220.40


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance levels


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EUR/NZD analysis for October 13, 2014

EURNZDDaily13.png


EURNZDH413.png


Overview :


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price rejected from the level of 1.6210 and tested the level of 1.6086 in a average volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent swings to find potential end of bullish corrective phase. I got Fibonacci expanson 61.8% at the price of 1.6200 (held successful). If the price breaks the level of 1.6000, we may see the testing of the level of 1.5900. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the daily timeframe, we can observe weak demand on the market.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6202


R2: 1.6229


R3: 1.6272


Support levels:


S1: 1.6116


S2: 1.6089


S3: 1.6046


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see short-term bearish continuation


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 13, 2014

General overview for 13/10/2014 13:20 CET


After recent impulsive count invalidation due to wave 1 and wave 2 overlap, the count has been re-visited, updated and re-labeled. The current situation is still not very clear as it looks like the market has returned to the range zone and the complex and time-consuming corrective cycle from the wave 1 purple top at the level of 145.67 has not been completed yet. After making a false breakout to the upside in wave (X) brown, the price retraced all of the advance and now is trading even below the important level of long-term support at 135.75. The trading conditions might get worsen in terms of whipsaws and false breakouts as the next wave of corrective cycle is coming - wave B black - and this wave is usually the hardest to trade. Nevertheless, there is still one more wave to the downside is missing, wave C black, and only when this last wave is completed, the market will be ready to resume the uptrend.


Support/Resistance:


135.56 - Intraday Support


135.71 - Technical Support


136.30 - Weekly Pivot


136.55 - Intraday Resistance


136.96 - WR1


136.93 - Technical Resistance


Trading recommendations:


The daytraders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 136.55 is clearly broken with SL below the level of 135.55 and TP at the level of 137.04 with a possible extension to the level of 137.93.


eurjpY_h44.jpg

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 13, 2014

General overview for 13/10/2014 13:10 CET


The recent price action on this pair indicates some sort of possible gains consolidation just below the golden channel line, between the area of 1.1221 - 1.1158 with the key level being the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1221. The outlook and bias for this pair is still bullish, but the internal sub-cycle wave c green to the downside still seems to be missing. Please keep an eye on both intraday levels, because only a clear breakout above one of the levels will give more clues about further wave development.


Support/Resistance:


1.1291 - WR1


1.1277 - Technical Resistance


1.1221 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


1.1186 - Weekly Pivot


1.1158 - Intraday Support


1.1124 - Intraday Support


1.1108 - WS1


1.1070 - 1.1080 - Demand Zone|Key Level|


Trading recommendations:


The overall bias is still bullish and buying the dips in this market is advised. Nevertheless, some internal sub-cycles seem not to be completed, so please monitor the situation continuously and trade only if any of the intraday levels are clearly broken.


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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for October 13-17, 2014

The weekly technical levels of GBP/USD:


gbpusd_pp.png


The movement of pivot point between resistance and support levels of the GBP/USD pair .



  • If price at pivot point (1,6085), watch for a move back to resistance 1 (1,6217) or support 1 (1,5944).

  • If price at resistance 1 (1,6217), expect for a move to resistance 2 (1,6358) or back towards pivot point (1,6085).

  • If price at support 1 (1,5944), expect for a move to support 2 (1.5812)or back towards resistance 1 (1,6217).

  • If price at support 2 (1.5812), expect for a move to support 3 (1.5671)or back towards support 1 (1,5944).

  • If price at resistance 2 (1,6358), expect for a move to resistance 3 (1,6490) or back towards resistance 1 (1,6217).

  • It should noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 (1,6217) or support 1 (1,5944). But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 (1,6217) or support 1 (1,5944) and reaches resistance 2 (1,6358) or support 2 (1.5812) and even resistance 3 (1,6490) or support 3 (1,5671).



Notes :



  • Major support will set at the price of 1.5944; and the double bottom had already placed at 1.5953.

  • Major resistance is going to set at 1.6217

  • We expect a new range about 285 pips this week.

  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.


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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for October 13-17, 2014

The Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair:


eurusd_pp.png


Short-term f orecast :



  • According to previous events, the EUR/USD pair is going to move between the levels of 1.2615 and 1.2730.

  • The resistance will be formed at the level of 1.2765 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 1.2636 in order to test the weekly pivot point.

  • Also, it should be noted that the double top will set at the point of 1.2790 in H1 chart.

  • However, stop-loss is to be placed above the double top around the area of 1.2535.

  • Additionally, the support will be formed at the level of 1.2575; therefore, it should expect a range of 255 pip this week (from the level of 1.2535 to 1.2790). It should aslo noted that the risk of 170 pips is seen to make a profit of 255 pips.


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Warnings :



  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

  • As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.

  • Volatility of the last week was around 356.70.


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#USDX Technical analysis for October 13, 2014

Despite finding support at 85 and starting an upward bounce, the Dollar index did not manage to close above the tenkan-sen resistance at 85.85. The downward correction that started at 86.75 may be incomplete. Breaking below 85 will imply a move lower towards 84.20


usdx.jpg

Blue line= support


Red line= price channel


Although, the Dollar index remains inside the bullish upward sloping price channel. Price however is below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart. This implies short-term trend remains bearish as price did not manage to break above the cloud resistance. The decline frm 86.75 is corrective and the bigger correction may still be incomplete as long as the index remains below the cloud. Resistance at 85.85 and 86 is critical. Bulls will regain the upper hand if price breaks above 86. This would be a good buy signal with 85 stop and 86.75 1st target and 87.17 2nd target.


usdxd.jpg

In the daily chart as shown above, the Dollar index could not manage to break above the tenkan-sen at 85.85 and got rejected on Friday . I mentioned last time that bulls needed to break above that resistance to regain control. Control is still in the hands of bears that will try to push the index below 85. Breaking below the 85 support will push the index towards the 38% retracement and the Ichimoku cloud around 84.


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Gold Wave analysis for October 13, 2014

Gold price has found support above $1,180 and is now in an upward corrective bounce. Our longer-term view remains bearish towards $1,050-$1,000 but today I analyze my alternative wave scenario where we could first see a push towards $1,280-$1,300.


goldh4.jpg

Let's look first at the short-term price action in gold. Accordng to our primary scenario that we have started wave 5 down, we have unfinished wave structure that implies a new low below $1,180, which is expected once this upward bounce is complete. The bounce has already reached the 38% retracement which is a typical price level for 4th waves. The break below $1,220 and $1,204 short-term support levels will confirm that the downtrend has resumed with $1,050 as 1st target.


goldd.jpg

In the chart above, I show my alternative wave scenario due to the triple bottom formation around $1,180. We could still be inside wave 4 and the bounce that started at $1,181 is probably wae E of wave 4. So we should not be surprised if we see gold price moving towards $1,300 to complete the sideways triangle correction before resuming its down trend towards $1,000.


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 13, 2014

GBPJPYWeekly.png


In the previous session, the pair finally broke the 50 and 100Dsma and closed below those levels. In the weekly chart, the pair broke the 20Wsma and closed below this as well. On the down side the pair has support at 172.00 200Dsma, 171.60, the 80% fib level, 171.00 and 170.60 200Dema levels. In the near and short term, the support zone is between 171.00 and 170.60 levels. In case if this week it closes below 171.00, we can expect strong sell-offs again towards 169.50. In case if the pair closes below the base of the ascending triangle, we can expect another free fall in the short and medium term. The pair has resistance at 173.45 20Wsma and 173.75. Until the price closes below 173.75, use every rise to sell.


Support: 172.00, 171.00, 170.60.


Resistance: 173.35, 173.75, 174.24.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 13, 2014

EURJPYDaily.png


After 3 days of range bound trading, the pair finally was sold off during Friday's session. The pair pushed to the bottom of the triangle in the weekly chart. The pair has support at 135.35, below this, we can expect a free fall towards the downside target at 134.50 and 134 levels. As we recommended in our earlier articles, sellers will mint the money. Now our take is start selling again only below 135.35 20Msma. For an intraday session, traders use sl 135.35 and buy a cmp 135.66 for targets at 136.00 and 136.40. On a positional basis in the near term, use every rise to sell.


Support: 135.50, 135.35, 134.50.


EURJPYH4.png

For an intraday view, the prices are closed far below the hourly key moving averages. The strong support zone is between 135.50, the base of the triangle, and 135.35 20Msma. We expect before further sell-off, the pair to hold these support levels and change its direction for a small pullback towards 136.45 and 137.00. Until the prices closes below 137 on h4 chart, bears will have an upper hand.


·The base of the symmetric triangle helps the pair. Breaks below 135.50-135.35 trigger panic.


·It has been trading below the short- and medium-term moving averages


·Trading in downward trend line


Trade-


Buy at cmp 135.66, sl 135.35, target is 136 and 136.40.


Sell below 135.35 with targets at 134.50 and 134.10.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 13, 2014

When the European market opens, there will be released a German WPI m/m. The US will not release any economic data, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2700.

Strong Resistance:1.2692.

Original Resistance: 1.2680.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2668.

Target Inner Area: 1.2638.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2608.

Original Support: 1.2596.

Strong Support: 1.2584.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2576.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 13, 2014

!USDJPY.jpg

Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic events. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 107.61.

Resistance. 2: 107.42.

Resistance. 1: 107.23.

Support. 1: 106.99.

Support. 2: 106.80.

Support. 3: 106.60.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Weekly forecast and intraday analysis of EUR/USD for October 13-17, 2014

Weekly key economic data-


The pair has some important key events this week. Traders eye Tuesday's German Zew Economic sentiment. This index has been falling for 9 months. In September it came in at 6.9. Again, we expect a downfall in this index. The industrial production data will be released on Tuesday as well, we expect another downfall. On Wednesday the Draghi speech and German final CPI data are set for release.


Weekly forecast


EURUSDWeekly.png

The pair made a minor double bottom at 1.2501 and faced strong resistance at the 61.8 fib level in the weekly chart at 1.2791 levels. In the daily chart, the pair breached the 20Dsma on an intraday basis, but failed to close above that. In case, if the pair closes above 20Dsma, the weekly trend turns positive until bears have an upper hand. For a weekly basis, the pair has resistance at 1.2715 and 1.2735, above these, 1.30 50Dsma will act as strong resistance. On the down side, 1.26 and 1.2570 will be minor support levels. 1.25 will act as a key support level, below this, we can expect a free fall to 1.22 200Msma levels.


EURUSDH4.png

Recommendation- for an intraday view, the prices have been trading below the hourly key moving averages 12ema and 21hrsma. The pair is facing strong resistance at 1.2650, a 8hr high, above this, 1.2680 (21hrsma) is acting as a strong resistance level. In the h4 chart, the support region is between 1.2580 and 1.26. At the current market price of 1.2626 we recommend buying for an hourly target at 1.2680, 1.27, 1.2710 and 1.2720 levels. We recommend selling below 1.26 for targets at 1.2584, 1.2570, and 1.2540 levels.


Trade- Buy at cmp 1.2626


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Technical analysis on USD/CAD for October 13, 2014

USDCADWeekly.png


The pair has been facing strong resistance between 1.1279 and 1.1270, facing selling pressure whenever the pair tries to breach this zone. In the previous week, the pair held the support at 20Dsma, bounced from 1.1082, and closed above a 4-day high in last Friday's session. Today the pair opened on a strong bullish note, opened lower at 1.1179 levels. On the upper side, the initial resistance is at 1.1211 and 1.1225, above this, 1.1245 and 1.1265 will act as trend decider levels.


Resistance 1.1211, 1.1225, 1.1245-1.1265


Support 1.1160, 1.1111, 1.1050


USDCADH4.png

For an intraday view, the prices are closed above the hourly key moving averages. Even though the pair opened on a bullish note it is facing resistance at 1.1211. We can observe a hns pattern in the h4 chart. The level of 1.1223 is the left shoulder and 1.1220 is the right shoulder. The trading pattern is framed between 1.1223 and 1.1157 levels. In case if the pair breaches the upside resistance at 1.1223, we can see fresh buying on an hourly basis. On the down side, if the pair breaks below 1.1155, we can see a 50-70 immediate fall, but panic will be triggered only below the neck line.


Trade-


Safe buyers, buy above 1.1223.


Risky traders, buy at cmp sl 1.1179, target is at 1.1220, 1.1245 and 1.1279.


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Daily analysis of USDX for October 13, 2014

The USDX continues to recover above the support level of 85.18, as this instrument is trying to finish forming a bullish pattern that has been developing for several days. On the upside, the USDX may find resistance at the level of 86.20, as the USDX formed a fractal above that level. The USDX is far from the 200 SMA and the MACD indicator is moving into negative territory.


USDXDaily.png

Dailychart's resistance levels: 86.20 – 87.35


Dailychart's support levels: 85.18 – 84.29


As we can see in the H1 chart, the USDX is consolidating back above the support level of 85.73, where the 200 SMA is located. The USDX formed a fractal at the resistance level of 85.95 so far, this instrument may enter in a phase of consolidation in the short term. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.


USDXH1.png


H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.95 – 86.17


H1 chart's support levels: 85.73 – 85.49


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.95, take profit is at 86.17, and stop loss is at 85.73.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 13, 2014

The GBP/USD continues to weaken in the daily chart, because this pair has found support at the 1.6046 level. If the GBP/USD manages to consolidate below this level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.5883 in the long term. It would be a bearish consolidation below the fractal which formed days ago. However, it is likely that the GBP/USD will start performing corrective movements. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


1413126337_GBPUSDDaily.png


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.6146 – 1.6235


Daily chart's support levels: 1.6046 - 1.5883


On the H1 chart, GBP/USD made a sharp drop to the support level of 1.6031, where the pair performed a rebound and later found resistance at the 1.6075 level. Now, the GBP/USD is trying to form a lower low pattern to strengthen the bearish trend in the short term. In addition, the GBP/USD that still remains below the 200 SMA.


1413126346_GBPUSDH1.png


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6075 – 1.6117


H1 chart's support levels: 1.6031 – 1.5980


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6031, take profit is at 1.5980, and stop loss is at 1.6083.


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