Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 18, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure and expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair remains in consolidation, and the nearest resistance at 109.25 maintains the strong selling pressure on the prices. Furthermore, the relative strength index is mixed to bearish below its neutrality area at 50.

To sum up, as long as 109.14 holds on the upside, look for a return to 108.30. A break below 108.30 would trigger a new drop towards 108.10.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 109.25 with a target at 109.65.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 109.25, Take Profit: 1

Resistance levels: 109.65, 109.90, and 110.25

Support Levels: 108.30, 108.10, 107.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 18, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to continue the downside movement. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality level at 50.

To conclude, as long as 0.9660 is resistance, a further downside to 0.9550 and even to 0.9500 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9660, Take Profit: 0.9550

Resistance levels: 0.9685, 0.9715, and 0.9750

Support levels: 0.9550, 0.9500, and 0.9475

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 18, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted yesterday were met. GBP/JPY is still under pressure and expected to continue the downside movement. The pair remains weak below its falling 20-period and 50-period moving averages, and is expected to post further downsides. The process of lower highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a negative outlook. Besides, the relative strength index is still bearish, without showing any reversal signals.

To conclude, as long as 141.20 is not surpassed, the risk of a slide below 139.20 remains high. Our next down target is set at 138.65.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a long position is recommended above 142.25 with the target at 142.65.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 139.20, Take Profit: 138.65.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 141.50, 142.05, and 143.00

Support levels: 139.20, 138.65, and 138.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 18, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 0.7275. The technical picture of the pair is positive as the prices are supported by a bullish trend line. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a further upside.

Therefore, while the price holds above 0.7275, look for a new challenge to 0.7350 and even to 0.7370 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7350, 0.7365, and 0.7400

Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7225, and 0.7175

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GBP/USD analysis for August 18, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2875. Anyway, according to the 15M time frame, I found a fake breakout of resistance cluster and yesterday's high at 1.2910, which is a sign that buyers got trapped and sellers took control. The RSI oscilator showed a hidden bearish divergence, which is another sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies. The downwards targets are set at 1.2845 and 1.2810.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2905

R2: 1.2940

R3: 1.2970

Support levels:

S1: 1.2845

S2: 1.2815

S3: 1.2780

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of EUR/JPY for August 18, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/JPY has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 127.83 (yesterday's first target). According to the 4H time frame, I found a breakout of support at 128.05, which is a sign that buying looks risky and that sellers are in control. I found weakness in the background (fake breakout, broken rising wedge), so my advice is to watch or potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 127.50 and 126.50.

Resistance levels:

R1: 129.35

R2: 130.25

R3: 130.80

Support levels:

S1: 127.95

S2: 127.40

S3: 126.50

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for August 18, 2017

USD/CHF has been impulsively bearish recently after bouncing back from the corrective range resistance of 0.9770 area. CHF economic reports were quite neutral in nature as well as the PPI report which published at 0.0% as expected which previously was at -0.1%. So this report had minor impact. On the other hand, the United States published both positive and negative economic reports which affected other currencies but could not stop the CHF growth. Today the US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to show slight improvement to 94.0 from the previous figure of 93.4. Besides, FOMC Member Kaplan is going to speak today about the interest rates and future monetary policies. His comments are expected to be neutral in nature with no hints of recent rate hike decisions. To sum up, CHF did not have any high impact economic reports this week but managed to gain and maintain the bearish trend against USD which does hint that CHF is still quite stronger with the overall market sentiment in place. If USD reports provide any positive reports of high impact events in future we might see some USD gains or else CHF is expected to gain further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has rejected the 0.9770 resistance level recently which lead to further impulsive bearish pressure in the pair. The price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and expected to reach 0.9450 support level in the coming days. As the price remains below the 0.9770 resistance level with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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Fundamental analysis of NZD/USD for August 18, 2017

NZD/USD has been quite volatile recently on the way to retesting the resistance area of 0.7370-0.7460. Yesterday, NZD has lost grounds due to positive economic reports from the United States which lead to more volatility in this pair recently. New Zealand posted a positive PPI input report published yesterday at 1.4% which previously was at 0.8% and expectation was at 0.9%. At the same time, the PPI Output was als positive at 1.3% which was expected to decrease to 0.7% from 1.4%. However, the currency has gained quite impulsively in the early hours of the market but could not sustain it long enough. On the other hand, today the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to show a slight increase to 94.0 from the previous figure of 93.4. If the report shows a better than expected result, then we might see more bearish pressure in this pair in the coming days. NZD has been quite positive with the economic reports recently but could not maintain gains long enough against USD, which indicates that USD is stronger than NZD despite the variation of economic report effects.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently proceeding higher with a target towards the resistance area of 0.7370-0.7460 but in a volatile corrective structure. The price is currently expected to reject the resistance area and then proceed lower towards 0.7050 support level in the coming days. As the price remains below the resistance level of 0.7460, the bearish bias is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 18, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair was trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.1850 and 1.2000-1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

However, a recent bearish pressure was expressed around lower price levels (1.1880) which managed to initiate the current bearish corrective movement.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched for a valid BUY entry during the current bearish pullback.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 18, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the EUR/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent bullish recovery is being manifested.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7240 and 0.7320 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

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Global macro overview for 18/08/2017

Global macro overview for 18/08/2017:

Increasing risk aversion is again becoming a leading reason behind the current financial markets behavior. The positive result season in the US has encouraged the continuation of the indexes to a historic high, but there are now no new reasons to buy stocks at the current levels. With so many valuations and strong buyouts, the lack of information is no longer good information. The global investors are faced with the possibility of reducing the balance sheet total by the Fed, which over time will include the absorption of gigantic liquidity excess in the banking sector. Moreover, next week the US and South Korean will join for military maneuvers that have been carried out in North Korea in the past, which increases and geopolitical uncertainty. Finally, the rumors that Gary Cohn, the head of economic affairs in Donald Trump's administration, was about to resign. Such a decision would further reduce the probability of tax reform and the implementation of the stimulus package. The rumor was quickly denied, but it was not going to stop the decline in the US stocks yesterday, which also shows the strength of the supply side on Wall Street. This week close in the US markets might be very important for both bulls and bears.

Let's now take a look at the SPY technical picture (SP500 ETF) at the H1 time frame. The golden trend line dynamic resistance was strong enough to push the prices lower towards the unfilled gap between the levels of 244.65 - 245.54. Currently, there is only one gap left to fill, between the levels of 242.78 - 243.31 and this gap will act as a very important support zone for both bulls and bears.

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Global macro overview for 18/08/2017

Global macro overview for 18/08/2017:

The release of European Central Bank Meeting Minutes has raised some concerns. According to the statement, the were concerns over possible market overshooting, especially in the currency markets. Moreover, there were other concerns regarding favorable financing conditions, which could not be taken for granted and relied to a great extent on policy.

The tone of the minutes suggests that the ECB will indeed be cautious about the way it will communicate any future policy moves, with the dovish form of QE tapering being the most likely option. Buying assets remain the main tool for controlling monetary policy as the ECB needs more space to adjust its monetary policy. The probability of an end of the quantitative easing that might be announced at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole next week is really very limited. Basically, the ECB's policy makers are very cautious regarding a possible future policy tightening, although we may expect the QE to be relatively short-lived (unless central bankers try to make some changes to the structure of the program, theoretically, Mario Draghi still does not rule out its extension). The debate at the last meeting, however, raised the point that the Eurozone economy is going to get better and better all the time. Of course, as is usually the case in such debates, it has been emphasized that it is impossible to fully conclude the present conditions because they may be temporary, but they were acknowledged to be good and becoming more self-sustaining.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had bounced four times from the 38%Fibo support at the level of 1.1268 already, but no new high or low was made, so it looks like the market is consolidating gains in a somewhat wide range between the levels of 1.1260 - 1.1537. Further gains are anticipated as the market conditions are starting to look oversold and the momentum indicator starts to point to the upside.

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Trading plan for 18/08/2017

Trading plan for 18/08/2017:

The US Dollar is losing against all major currencies. The strongest are GBP, JPY, and SEK. The global investors are shocked after yesterday's attacks in Barcelona: Gold lost 0.1%, Silver is down 0.35%. On the Asian stock market sentiment is still negative: Nikkei drops -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.55%, Shanghai Composite gains + 0.1%. In the US Nasdaq 100 falls -2.05%, the S&P 500 -1.54% and the Dow Jones -1.24%.

On Friday 18th of August, the event calendar is busy in an important news release only during the US session. During this session, Canada will release Consumer Price Index data and the US will release Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count data. At the end of the trading day, there is a scheduled speech by FOMC member Robert Kaplan.

EUR/USD analysis for 18/08/2017:

The Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Indicator data are scheduled for release at 02:00 pm GMT and the mid-August sentiment index is expected to climb to 94.5 from 93.4 at the end of July. The consumer sentiment index fell in June and July but still remained at relatively elevated levels. The rapid fall for two months, despite the still-improving US labor market and stock markets trading near all-time-highs, most likely mirrors political worries, both on the domestic and the international level. The political divisions are still significant, but the sentiment divergence seems to be decreasing. While supporters of the Democratic party still hold a very negative economic outlook, supporters of the Republican party have somewhat moderated their optimistic outlook. Nevertheless, none of the reforms promised during the Trump's presidential campaign (tax reform, Obamacare reform) have been completed and introduced to the US society. This event will surely weight soon on the overall sentiment levels in the US, even among the Trump supporters. In the result, the weakening in the sentiment level will directly influence the US Dollar, pushing it to even lower levels than it is now.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is slowly moving lower towards the important technical support at the level of 1.1614, but the whole move looks like a part of the bullish flag pattern. The momentum is still too weak to move above its fifty level, but when it does before the support is violated, then the swing high at the level of 1.1908 will likely to be tested again ( and possibly broken).

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Market Snapshot: Gold just below the key resistance

After the terrorist attack in Barcelona, the price of Gold is climbing higher towards the key technical resistance at the level of $1297. If this level if violated, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of $1308. The increasing momentum is supporting the bullish view.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY close to the support

The price of USD/JPY reversed from the technical resistance at the level of 111.04 and now is getting close to the technical support at the level of 108.79. The momentum points down and the stochastic oscillator is still negative, so it is likely this support will be tested and broken. The next technical support is seen at the level of 108.47.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy for a bounce

Forex analysis review
EUR/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy for a bounce

Trading plan 08/18/2017

Overall picture: ECB and market reaction.

The main events are focused on the US market, which showed a sharp decline to -1.2-1.5% on the indices.

Currency market: The ECB stimulate the rate of EURUSD.

The publication of the ECB's protocols revealed that the central bank is seriously concerned about the growth of the euro.

In consideration of the market reaction, the euro fell sharply and broke through the 1.1680 level and reached 1.1660.

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Plan for EURUSD:

We prepare the purchase with a breakout to the top of 1.1790, but with a break below 1.1660 as we sell.

The main event is scheduled next week, which is the meeting of the leaders of Central Bank in Jackson-Hole, it is expected for coordinated plans to remove excess liquidity from the markets.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 18, 2017

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Wave summary:

If a clear break above 1.6236 is not seen soon, we will likely see a deeper correction closer to 1.5928 before the next impulsive rally higher. Only a clear break above 1.6236 confirms the next leg higher towards 1.6969 with minor resistance seen at 1.6349 and 1.661.6636 on the way up.

R3: 1.6349

R2: 1.6236

R1: 1.6125

Pivot: 1.6100

S1: 1.6050

S2: 1.6000

S3: 1.5928

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6050 has been hit for a nice 540 pips profit. We will buy EUR again at 1.5950 or upon a break above 1.6236.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 18, 2017

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Wave summary:

The break below support at 128.89 told us the corrective decline in wave X was not complete and more downside closer to 127.19 and maybe even closer to 125.08 could be seen. Continue to look lower as long as minor resistance at 129.16 is able to cap the upside. If, however, a break above 129.16 is seen that will be the first indication that the X-wave is complete, while a break above 130.40 confirms that for the final rally higher towards 137.36.

R3: 130.40

R2: 129.50

R1: 129.19

Pivot: 128,50

S1: 127.96

S2: 127.50

S3: 127.19

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 128.89 our stop is now placed at 129.25 and take profit at 127.25.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 18, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has only consolidated so far this week, with no much directional movement. The market is quite choppy right now, and it would make sense to stay away from it until the price goes above the resistance line at 1.1800 or below the support line at 1.1700.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument went upward to test the resistance level at 0.9750 and then dropping below the resistance level at 0.9650. This has created a short-term bearish signal (the EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the downside, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold territory); which means the support levels at 0.9600 and 0.9550 could be tested.

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GBP/USD: This market went downwards, to test the accumulation territory at 1.2850, and then moving sideways till now. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and further downwards movement is expected, especially when the accumulation territory at 1.2850 is breached to the downside.

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USD/JPY: The bearish signal on the USD/JPY has become clearer than it was yesterday. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the 50. Price is under the supply level at 109.50, and it may target the demand levels at 109.00 and 108.50 (which could be reached between today and next Monday).

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EUR/JPY: After generating a bearish signal, the EUR/JPY has gone down seriously. The price is now below the supply zone at 128.50, targeting the demand zone at 128.00. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, which points to further bearish journey.

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EUR/USD testing major support, prepare to buy

The price is seeing major support at 1.1691 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) and we expect to see a bounce above this level towards 1.1795 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing nice support above 13% and also sees an intermediate ascending support line push price up.

Buy above 1.1691. Stop loss is at 1.1645. Take profit is at 1.1795.

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USD/CHF approaching major support, prepare to buy

The price has crept closer to our major buying area since yesterday. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.9598 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, bullish divergence) for a push up to at least 0.9697 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 2.3% where we expect a corresponding bounce in price from. We can also see bullish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is fast approaching.

Buy above 0.9598. Stop loss is at 0.9557. Take profit is at 0.9697.

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NZD/USD dropping nicely towards profit target, remain bearish

The price has reversed perfectly from our selling area and is approaching our profit target. We remain bearish below 0.7290 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) for a further push down to at least 0.7223 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). We shift our stop loss to 0.7335 resistance to protect our profits.

Stochastic (34,5,3) has reversed nicely and has good downside potential to play our drop.

Sell below 0.7290. Stop loss is at 0.7335. Take profit is at 0.7223.

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EUR/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy for a bounce

The price continued its drop yesterday and has reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to buy above major support at 130.07 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce up to at least 130.07 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is testing major support at 7.1% and we expect a corresponding bounce from that level.

Correlation analysis: We're seeing JPY strength with drops on AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Sell below 130.07. Stop loss is at 130.42. Take profit is at 128.92.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy for a strong bounce

The price has dropped absolutely perfectly from our selling area to our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 86.02 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 86.94 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major support above 2% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Correlation analysis: We're seeing JPY strength with drops on AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Buy above 86.02. Stop loss is at 85.71. Take profit is at 86.94.

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AUD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy

The price has dropped perfectly from our selling area and has reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7846 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) for a push up to at least 0.7938 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above 7.2% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 0.7877. Stop loss is at 0.7846. Take profit is at 0.7938.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 18, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1771.

Strong Resistance:1.1764.

Original Resistance: 1.1753.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1742.

Target Inner Area: 1.1714.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1686.

Original Support: 1.1675.

Strong Support: 1.1664.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1657.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 18, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any Economic Data but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.02.

Resistance. 2: 109.81.

Resistance. 1: 109.59.

Support. 1: 109.32.

Support. 2: 109.11.

Support. 3: 108.89.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues moving upwards from the spot 0.9639. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 0.9763 or 0.9800.
  • The market has been trading around the area of 0.9639/0.9600 this week. The pair rose from the levels of 0.9639 and 0.9600 (the level of 0.9639 and 0.9600 coincide with the ratios of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 50%) to a top around 0.9733.
  • The first support level is seen at 0.9639 followed by 0.9600, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.9763. The USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9693 and 0.9763 in coming hours. On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.9763 which coincides with the double top.
  • Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
  • The price is still above the moving average (100). Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.9763, we should see the pair climbing towards the second daily resistance at 0.9800 to test it. However, it would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the last support 0.9600. The trend is still calling for a strong bullish market as long as the trend is still above the level of 0.9600.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 18, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair probably is moving towards the resistance area of 0.7329-0.7360 in order to fall again from the level of 0.7329 (the level of 0.7329 coincides with the ratio of 38.2%). Often, history will repeat itself again. However, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7288 followed by 0.7328 and 0.7360, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7175. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7288 and 0.7175; hence, we expect a range of 113 pips. If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7288, the market will decline further to 0.7175. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7175 with a view to testing the daily support 1. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7329, then this scenario may become invalidated. Taking everything into account, we still look in the bearish market as long as the trend is below the price of 0.7360.
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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for August 18, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bullish short-term trend. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. However, the momentum is not as strong as we expected and this could imply that another strong downward move towards 91 could come soon.

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Red lines - bullish channel

The price is trading above the 4 hour Kumo (cloud). Price is also inside the bullish red channel. Support is at 93.30 while resistance is at 94.30. The form of the rise is corrective in nature. Once support fails to hold on the 4-hour chart, we should expect heavy selling to push the index to new monthly lows.

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On a daily basis, the price is trapped between the kijun- and the tenkan-sen indicators. The trend is still however bearish and for that, to change we would need a push above 97.30. However, a break above 94.20-94.30 will open the way for a push towards 96.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for August 18, 2017

The Gold price remains in a short- and medium-term trend, while in a process of turning longer-term trend to bullish too. The price has broken an important long-term trend line resistance coming from its all time highs. This resistance gave many rejections in the past. Not now.

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Short-term support is at $1,277 and resistance at $1,292. The tenkan-sen is breaking above the Kijun-sen. This is a bullish sign so we should expect Gold to continue higher above $1,300 over the coming weeks.

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Black line -long-term resistance

Blue line- long-term support

This week's candle provided a back test of the break out of the black trend line resistance. Breaking this trend line is a very important bullish signal. Many times before price got rejected and was sold off when touching the trend line. Not this time. This time we confirm our longer-term bullish view in Gold.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 18, 2017

USDX had a bullish session during Thursday in an overall view, but during American session, it erased some gains after Barcelona's terrorist attack, which helps to boost the demand for safe-haven assets across the board. To the upside, the resistance level is still placed at 94.11 and if we see a break above it, we can expect a rally towards 94.58.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.11 / 94.58

H1 chart's support levels: 93.74 / 93.28

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.11, take profit is at 94.58 and stop loss is at 93.66.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 18, 2017

GBP/USD still holds the support level of 1.2850 and one could expect a recovery to re-test the 200 SMA at H1 chart. Nothing has changed since our latest report about the pair, but the risk is still targeting to the downside and if it breaks below 1.2850, further declines are expected to take place towards 1.2761.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2958 / 1.3021

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2850 / 1.2761

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2850, take profit is at 1.2761 and stop loss is at 1.2938.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 17, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair has bounced up from 108.90 and is holding on the upside. The rising 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period one and is playing a support role. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

As long as 109.60 holds on the downside, look for a further advance towards 110.25, a break above this level would call for a further rise towards 110.60.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 109.40 with a target at 108.90.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 109.60, Take Profit: 110.25

Resistance levels: 110.25, 110.60, and 111.05

Support Levels: 109.40, 108.90, 109.25

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 17, 2017

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Technical outlook:

We have again presented the daily chart here to remind you of the bigger picture in EUR/USD. It has been two weeks since we discussed EUR/USD potential drop from 1.1910 levels and the pair has dropped almost 300 pips since then. Even now, the downside should remain intact towards 1.1600 and 1.1400 levels going forward. Please note that the pair looks to have completed waves 1,2 and 3 since the beginning of 2017 now, and might be working on wave 4. Furthermore, wave 4 can take a complex sideways structure since wave 2 was quite sharp as seen on the chart here. The short-term outlook will be presented tomorrow to catch up with trend and counter trend movements but overall bearish stance remains until mid 1.1300 levels, which is 38% fibonacci retracement of wave 3. Immediate support is seen close to 1.1600 levels, while resistance is found at 1.1840/50 levels. Please expect short-term pullback rallies and take it as opportunities to go short again.

Trading plan:

Please remain short, stop 1.1915, target 1.1600 and 1.1400.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

We have presented the bigger picture again to reconfirm long-term trading strategy in GBP/USD. Since the beginning of August 2017, we have remained short and prices have now dropped from 1.3267 through 1.2840 levels broadly. It already looks to have completed the first leg (impulse, 5 waves) as discussed and traded since last two weeks. As depicted here, a counter trend rally could be seen materializing anytime now, which could terminate around 1.3100 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the recent drop. Immediate support is seen through 1.2800 levels for now while major resistance remains at 1.3267 levels. Please be prepared for a counter trend rally through 1.3100 levels and take it as yet another opportunity to go short towards the larger down trend. Downside targets remain at 1.2600 and 1.2300 levels subsequently.

Trading plan:

Please remain flat for now and sell again around 1.3100 levels, stop at 1.3270, with target at 1.2600 and lower.

Fundamental outlook:

No major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

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