Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for October 03, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair faced sudden negative pressure yesterday that forced it to form some correctional trading and test 50% Fibonacci correction level at 149.10. The stability of the current level confirms forming solid support against the negative fluctuations. So, we still suggest the bullish bias with the target levels of 152.80 followed by 155.20. On the other hand, a decline below the current support will confirm the beginning of a correctional bearish bias with the target at 147.80. Continuous negative pressures might extend the pair's losses to 145.10 before achieving any new upward target. The expected trading range for today is between 149.20 and 152.80

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Daily analysis of Gold for October 03, 2017

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Overview

Gold price continues to decline. The metal is heading for the projected target at $1,263.15. Let me remind you that this level represents 61.8% Fibonacci correction for the rise from $1,204.81 to $1,235.73. I'd like to stress the importance of this level for the short-term trading. Indeed, breaking this level will extend price losses to reach $1,240.85 as the next main station. On the other hand, holding against the current negative pressure will push the price to return to the main bullish trend again. Until now, we suggest a further bearish bias for today unless breaching $1,281.17 level and holding above it. This level is considered to be the first key to stop the current correctional bearish pressure. The expected trading range for today is between $1,255.00 support and $1,281.17 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for October 03, 2017

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Overview

Silver price continues to fluctuate around the key support $16.56. The metal is waiting to break this level to confirm a further bearish wave to the target level of $15.49 in the short term. Please note that the EMA50 is putting downward pressure on the price to encourage a further decline in the upcoming period. Therefore, the negative scenario remains valid as silver is trading without any change today. You should be aware that breaching $17.43 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to rise again. The expected trading range for today is between $16.40 support and $16.70 resistance.

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GBP/USD analysis for October 03, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3229. According to the 30M time-frame, I found a fake pullback into the yesterday's trading range, which is a sign of weakness. There is also a breakout of intraday upward trendline, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3185 and 1.3150.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3280

R2: 1.3310

R3: 1.3330

Support levels:

S1: 1.3230

S2: 1.3210

S3: 1.3180

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for October 03, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1762. According to the 15M time -frame, I found a breakout of the upward trendline, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1730 and 1.1700.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1770

R2: 1.1790

R3: 1.1810

Support levels:

S1: 1.1725

S2: 1.1700

S3: 1.1685

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for October 3, 2017

AUD/USD has been in a bearish trend since it bounced off the resistance area of 0.8020-80 recently. AUD has been recently had negative bias having worse economic reports and dovish statements whereas USD has been quite positive. Today AUD HIA New Homes Sales report was published with an increase to 9.1% from the previous negative value of -3.7%, Building Approvals showed some increase to 0.4% from the previous value of -1.2% but could not meet the expectation 1.1% and Along with RBA Rate Statement the Cash Rate report was published unchanged as expected at 1.50%. On the USD side, today FOMC Powell is going to speak about the nation's key interest rates and upcoming monetary policies which are expected to be neutral in nature and Total Vehicle Sales report is expected to show an increase to 16.9M from the previous figure of 16.1M. To sum up, AUD has been quite bearish in nature having mixed economic reports today which does signal that AUD is quite weaker in nature than USD. If USD economic reports and events results are positive today, then we will be expecting a further bearish move in this pair for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing in the support area of 0.7750-0.7830 which is expected to hold the price from further bearish pressure. If price breaks below the lower support of 0.7750 with a daily close then we will be expecting a further bearish move towards 0.7630 support level and on the other hand if the price breaks above the 0.7830 higher support level with a daily close then we will be looking forward to buying towards 0.80 again. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close we will be in bearish bias.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 03, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $4.241. Goldman Sachs may enter the cryptocurrency trading arena. Goldman Sachs interest in bitcoin started off with the firm discounting nearly every benefit the technology had to offer a few years ago. A couple of years down the line the financial management company suddenly couldn't stop talking about bitcoin and this time highlighting its positive attributes. Goldman Sachs also has technical stock and forex analysts watching the market closely and has given investors trading advice in a few market reports. The technical picture for today looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, I found the broken trading range and upward trendline, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I expect, re-testing of gap zone and potential testing of $4.196. There is a hidden bearish divergence in the background on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities.

Support/Resistance

$4.418 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$4.240 – Intraday support (price action)

$4.195 – Projected target (price action)

$4.018 – Short-term downward target (price action)

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 03, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair faced strong resistance at the level of 0.9785 because the double top is set around the spot of 0.9785 . So, the strong resistance has already formed at the level of 0.9785 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9785, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9785 or 0.9845 (resistance 2). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the spot of 0.9785/0.9845 so it will be good to sell at 0.9785 with the first target at 0.9707. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9846. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9603. On the contrary, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9845 (major resistance).
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 3, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline around 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 03, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair has faced a major support at the level of 0.7131 which represents a double bottom on the H4 chart. So, the strong resistance has been already faced at the level of 0.7131 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. The level of 0.7131 represents a double bottom for that it is acting as minor support this week. Furthermore, the NZD/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.7131. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.7131 and 0.7167. Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.7167/ 0.7131 with the first target at the level of 0.7247. If the trend is be able to break the first resistance at the level of 0.7247, then the market will continue rising towards the weekly resistance 2 at 0.7319 (note that the double top is set at 0.7435). However, stop loss should be set at the level 0.7100 because the last bearish wave is seen at the price of 0.7131.
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 3, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If the current bearish breakout persists below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

Trade Recommendations

Bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1835-1.1850 (the backside of the broken uptrend line) should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

S/L should be placed above 1.1950.

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Global macro overview for 03/10/2017

Global macro overview for 03/10/2017:

The ISM Manufacturing PMI from the US has hit a 13-year high. Market participants expected a drop to 57.9 points from 58.8 points the last month, but the number delivered was at the level of 60.8. A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the US economy. The main reason behind such a good data was found in recent consequences of natural disasters. Disruptions to the supply chains caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma resulted in factories taking longer to deliver goods and boosted raw material prices (the biggest problems were noted in food, beverage, tobacco and chemical products sector). As a result, the ISM's supplier deliveries sub-index soared 7.3 points to 64.4 last month. A lengthening in suppliers' delivery time is normally associated with increased activity, which is a positive contribution to the ISM index. Nevertheless, the manufacturing growth is still strong and manufacturing employment has hit its highest level since 2011. In conclusion, a paradoxical "positive" impact of the natural disasters in the US economy is really occurring, just as it was anticipated by economists just in the aftermath of the disasters.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market tried to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 113.25 again, but failed. It looks like the market is losing upward momentum and a deeper correction might occur anytime soon. Clear and visible bearish divergences on momentum indicators are supporting the view. The next support is seen at the level of 112.19.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 3, 2017

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Wave summary:

A break above resistance at 1.6410 is needed to give the next "GO" for a rally towards 1.6875 and above. Support is currently seen at 1.6275 and should be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.6410.

R3: 1.6488

R2: 1.6450

R1: 1.6410

Pivot: 1.6400

S1: 1.6336

S2: 1.6275

S3: 1.6236

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6365 with stop placed at 1.6250. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.6410 and start by using the same stop at 1.6250.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 3 - 2017

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Wave summary:

The ideal minor resistance at 113.12 will cap the upside for renewed downside pressure towards 130.37. But, even if minor resistance at 133.12 is broken, the strong resistance is seen just above 133.35, which should provide enough resistance for the next decline.

R3: 133.35

R2: 133.12

R1: 132.91

Pivot: 132.60

S1: 132.30

S2: 132.04

S3: 131.70

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 133.00 with stop placed at 133.55.

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Global macro overview for 03/10/2017

Global macro overview for 03/10/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.50% as expected. In the Rate Statement, RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated the pattern from a month ago. Minor changes related to the assessment of economic prospects based on improvement in investments were mentioned. As for the Australian Dollar, Lowe reiterated that the appreciation in the mid-year was on the prospects for inflation and growth. What caught the attention was the fragmentation of the macro-prudential oversight of the real estate market in order to prevent the imbalances. In the past, the RBA wanted to curb the demand for mortgage loans without rising interest rates. So now it seems that the RBA is not keen to change its attitude toward interest rates.

In a situation where central banks have more and more signals of moving away from ultra-loose monetary policy, the RBA position may be a ballast for the AUD. The Australian economic growth is still closely tied to the Chinese economy, which is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Any sign of problems in China will greatly influence the Australian economy and its currency.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bear has managed to break out below the technical support at the level of 0.7807, but it looks like the move down is losing the momentum. There is a visible bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator, so the market reaction might be a bounce towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.7867.

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Bitcoin analysis for 03/10/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 03/10/2017:

Bitcoin or digital technology companies are the latest trends on Wall Street. The rating is based on news this week about several different companies that have benefited from the digital currency and had significant price increases, thus experiencing significant growth in the market. Bloomberg explains that this indicates a new strong fashion. Overstock, managed by Patrick Byrne, was valued $137 million after opening the trading platform. Goldmoney, which has offered its clients the opportunity to trade and store cryptocurrency in their insured wallets, has risen by 15%. The price increases are a testimony to market sentiment that the new Blockchain cryptocurrency will have a huge impact on the market in much the same way as before the "dotcom" market rally. Investors are trying to get traction at an early stage of the market, where profits can be very significant. However, the hidden risks and technical barriers associated with digital currency have led to increased pressure on investors looking for major investment options. Hence sudden changes in the prices of individual tags.

Let's now take a look at Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bulls were not strong enough to break out above the $4,444 resistance and now the price has fallen out of the channel in somewhat impulsive fashion. Nevertheless, to decide if this is the beginning of the wave (c) to the downside, the price must first breakout below the level of $4,000. Please notice, that in a case of extension the next target is at the level of $4,661.

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Trading plan for 03/010/2017

Trading plan for 03/010/2017:

The currency market repeats the pattern from yesterday: after a sluggish start comes a clear strengthening of the USD against other major currencies. The weakest are NZD and AUD; the latter by reference to the RBA's remarks on real estate market control. EUR/USD touched 1.1694 and USD/JPY was at 113.18. GBP/USD continues yesterday's downtrend and is already at 1.3250. The stock market is rising slightly.

On Tuesday 3rd of October, the event calendar is light in important event releases, but market participants will keep an eye on Construction PMI from the UK, PPI from the Eurozone and Unemployment Change from Span. Two speeches are scheduled for today from FOMC member Jerome Powell and BOC Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc.

GBP/USD analysis for 03/10/2017:

The Construction PMI data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and market participants expect the figures to be released still above the fifty level (51.1 points). Nevertheless, even if the level of 51.1 points is hit, it still will be the lowest Construction PMI in 12 months, with the recent 4 months presenting a clear downtrend from 55.5 level. Construction figures are an important indicator of housing demand. If PMI falls below its fifty level, then it means this sector of the economy is in contraction, which, in turn, will influence the housing sector as well.

Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The second candle with a wick at the bottom is drawn, indicating a likely upward correction. Very important resistance will be the line connecting the last peaks falling in the area of 1.3330. In case of a breakthrough in a slightly longer term, it may open the way to the September highs at 1.3660. The closest support is the Fibonacci retracement of 50%$ is at the level of 1.3215.

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Market Snapshot: SPY on all-time highs again

The price of SPY (SP500 EFT) has hit the new all-time high again at the level of 252.26 points. The series of higher highs and higher lows still clearly indicates that the uptrend is in progress and so far there is no sign of any reversal. The next technical support is seen at the level of 251.37, but the most important one is seen at the level of 250.31.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil retraces 38% of the recent rally

The price of Crude Oil has retreated 38% of the recent rally from $45.50 to $52.86. This level was the lower channel boundary line as well, so it created a good support for the price. The oversold market conditions are indicating a possible correction to the level of $50.80 or even $51.20.

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Burning forecast 10.03.2017

Burning forecast 10.03.2017

EURUSD: Sales. Purchases are premature.

The EURUSD exchange rate continues to be under pressure.

Reasons: The crisis in Spain because of the referendum on the independence of Catalonia, which took place on October 1, is the worst political and civil conflict in Spain in the last 40 years, since the fall of Francisco Franco.

The second reason for the fall of the euro is strong data on the US economy - this raises the question of tightening the Fed's policy on the dollar. So, yesterday came an important index of business activity in the US industry - ISM index for September - above the forecast of +60.

Hold selling from 1.1770 - the first target is 1.1660.

If you do not have positions - selling EURUSD is recommended from 1.1715 - or higher, for example from 1.1750.

The signal of cancellation of selling is the growth of the euro above 1.1800.

In case of a complete reversal, buy from 1.1835.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for October 3, 2017

The Dollar index made a new higher high yesterday 93.92. Price has reached our next target area of 94 as we said when it bounced off the 91.70 support. The price remains in a bullish short-term trend and is now challenging medium-term trend.

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Red lines - bullish channel

The Dollar index has short-term support at 93.50. Resistance is at 94.10-94.20. The trend remains bullish as long as the price is above 92.50. A break below 92.50 will confirm trend reversal back to bearish.

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Blue lines - ascending wedge

The Dollar index has entered the daily Kumo (cloud) changing daily trend to neutral according to Ichimoku cloud terms. The new highs, however, have not been followed by new highs in the RSI giving a divergence signal. This is the first important warning and message of caution to Dollar bulls. Wedge support is at 93.20.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for October 3, 2017

The gold price remains in a bearish trend. This pullback has the purpose to throw out weak bulls. This pullback is corrective. Technically we should soon see a reversal to the upside. The signal will be given on a break above $1,277.

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Black line - resistance

Blue lines - bullish divergence signs

With the RSI weakening and not making new lows as price does, the time for a strong bounce and resumption of the uptrend is getting closer. Support is at $1,267 and next at $1,250. Resistance is at $1,277 and next at $1,298.

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Magenta line - resistance

Blue line - support

The gold price could be heading towards the Kumo (cloud) support at $1,250 after breaking below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). We continue to consider this pull back as a buying opportunity but we still have not seen a reversal signal. My longer-term view remains bullish.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for October 3, 2017

GBP/USD has been bearish in nature recently which has led the price to break below 1.3370 support level. USD has been quite positive in nature recently ahead of NFP and Unemployment Rate report to be published on Friday. After a great amount of non-volatile bullish pressure, the pair has recently countered with an impulsive bearish pressure which is expected to continue until any positive economic reports of GBP gets published. GBP has been going through a negative phase since the Brexit took place and as the UK Prime Minister May recently stated it is going to take more years to recover the Brexit effect which suddenly changed the bias of the market whereas USD has been quite positive to take the advantage. Today, GBP Construction PMI report is going to be published which is expected to have an unchanged figure of 51.1 and FPC Meeting Minutes is going to be held where in-depth insight of the financial condition of the economy and further decisions will be discussed. As the economic report and event are expected to have a good impact in the market, so any positive result will lead to gains on GBP or else it will add to USD gains. On the USD side, today FOMC Member Powell is going to speak about nation's key interest rates and future monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature and Total Vehicle Sales report is expected to show growth to 16.9M from the previous figure of 16.1M. To sum up, USD has been quite positive with the economic reports and events recently which lead to further gains against GBP and any positive report on USD and negative report of GBP will enhance the bearish pressure in the market. As of the current market sentiment, USD is expected to have an upper hand over GBP.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has broken below the 1.3370 recently and it is expected to lead to further bearish pressure in the market towards the trend line support and horizontal support area of 1.3050-1.3120. Currently it is expected to show short term bullish move towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA before it pushes lower towards the support area. As the price remains below the dynamic level resistance and 1.3370 horizontal resistance the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Burning forecast 10.02.2017

Forex analysis review
Burning forecast 10.02.2017

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 03, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to continue its upside movement. Although the pair posted a pullback, a support base at 112.75 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index is supported by a rising trend line since October 2.

To conclude, as long as 112.75 is not broken, look for the continuation of rebound with targets at 113.50 and 113.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.75 with a target at 112.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.40, Take Profit: 113.25

Resistance levels: 113.50, 113.75 and 114.00 Support Levels: 112.50, 112.20, 111.75

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for October 3, 2017

USD/JPY has been in an impulsive bullish trend recently which has recently broken above the 112.50 resistance level. The price is currently impulsively bullish due to recent USD positive economic reports published. Today JPY Monetary Base report was published with worse value of 15.6% from the previous value of 16.3% which was expected to increase to 17.3%, BOJ Core CPI report showed increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.4% and Consumer Confidence report was published with an increase to 43.9 from the previous figure of 43.3 which was expected to be at 43.5. JPY has been quite mixed with the economic reports today which did quite help the currency to gain over the USD gains till now. On the USD side, today FOMC Member Powell is going to speak regarding the national key interest rates and future monetary policies whereas the event is expected to neutral in nature and Total Vehicle Sales report is expected to show an increase to 16.9M from the previous figure of 16.1M. As of the current situation, if USD report and event comes up with positive results then it is expected that the bullish momentum will gain strength and push the price further up in the coming days.

Now let us look at a technical view, the price is currently residing in a big corrective structure which started since April 2017. Currently, the price is residing in impulsive bullish pressure breaking above the 112.50 which is expected to progress towards 114.30-1115.40 resistance area in the coming days. We might see some corrective price action along the way towards the resistance area, but it would be interesting to see how the price reacts after reaching the resistance area.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 03, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is still expected to continue its upside movement. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing index surged to 60.8 in September (vs. 58.1 expected), the highest level since May 2004, from 58.8 in August. The Commerce Department said construction spending grew 0.5% on month in August, compared with +0.4% expected and a decline of 1.2% in July.

Therefore, as long as 0.9730 holds on the downside, look for a further upside to 0.9830 and even to 0.9850 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9730, Take Profit: 0.9830

Resistance levels: 0.9830, 0.9850, and 0.9875

Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9685, and 0.9625

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 03, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis have been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to continue its downside movement. The pair has clearly reversed down and is likely to test its support at 149.25. The risk of a slide below 149.25 remains high, as the 50-period moving average plays a key resistance, and should continue to push the prices lower. Furthermore, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

To sum up, as long as 152.20 is not surpassed, look for a new pullback to 149.25 and 148.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 150.20 with the target at 150.70.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 150.20, Take Profit: 149.25

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.70, 151.20 and 152.00

Support levels: 149.25, 148.75, and 148.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 03, 2017

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Our first target which predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair retreated and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the declining 50-period moving average suggests that the prices have a potential for a further decline. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

To sum up, as long as 0.7225 is not surpassed, look for a return with targets at 0.7180 and 0.7165 in extension.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7220, 0.7240, and 0.7260

Support levels: 0.7135, 0.7110, and 0.7070

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 03, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as PPI m/m and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Total Vehicle Sale, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1789.

Strong Resistance:1.1782.

Original Resistance: 1.1771.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1760.

Target Inner Area: 1.1732.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1704.

Original Support: 1.1693.

Strong Support: 1.1682.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1675.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 03, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence, BOJ Core CPI y/y, 10-y Bond Auction, and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Total Vehicle Sale. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.61.

Resistance. 2: 113.39.

Resistance. 1: 113.17.

Support. 1: 112.89.

Support. 2: 112.67.

Support. 3: 112.45.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY breaking out as expected, remain bullish

The price has finally made a bullish exit of its triangle formation. We remain bullish looking to buy above support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, bullish divergence) and play the breakout from the triangle towards 89.09 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing major support above 7% and also sees bullish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is fast approaching.

Buy above 88.04. Stop loss is at 87.59. Take profit is at 89.09.

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EUR/JPY approaching major support, prepare to buy

The price is approaching major support at 132.01 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) and we expect to see a nice bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 134.15 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 1% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 132.01. Stop loss is at 130.45. Take profit is at 134.15.

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AUD/USD profit target reached perfectly, time to play the bounce

The price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7794 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, bullish divergence) for the bounce to at least 0.7868 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing major support above 0.8% and we can also see bullish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Buy above 0.7794. Stop loss is at 0.7759. Take profit is at 0.7868.

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USD/CHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has shot up perfectly and reached our profit target yesterday. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.9756 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a push down to at least 0.9679 support, Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

RSI (34) sees a long-term descending resistance line signaling that we're starting to see bearish momentum.

Sell below 0.9756. Stop loss is at 0.9785. Take profit is at 0.9679.

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USD/JPY right on selling area, remain bearish

We remain bearish looking to sell below 112.65 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) for a further drop towards 110.90 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

RSI (55) sees bearish divergence signaling that a strong reversal is impending. However, we see intermediate support at 50% so only a break of this level would confirm a further downside move.

Sell below 112.65. Stop loss is at 113.45. Take profit is at 110.90.

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NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy and play the bounce

The price has dropped and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7174 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to at least 0.7244 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major support above 0.8% where we expect further bullish price action on.

Buy above 0.7174. Stop loss is at 0.7150. Take profit is at 0.7224.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 3, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair was pushed lower on October 2, and it is now below the resistance line at 1.1750, going towards the support line at 1.1700 (an initial target). Other targets for bears are the support lines at 1.1650 and 1.1600, which could be reached within the next few days. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this month, and thus, the EUR/USD would go bearish in most cases.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument showed some bullishness yesterday – and it is already in a bullish mode. As the EUR/USD goes further south, the USD/CHF will go further north. At first, the northwards journey would seem limited because of some attempts to gather stamina on the part of CHF. However, the bulls would become clear winners by the end of the month, for USD would have gained some strength by then.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD assumed further journey southwards on Monday. The price dropped by more than 90 pips, having dropped by 250 pips since the beginning of last week. Since the outlook on GBP pairs remains bearish for this week, it is anticipated that price would continue going downwards, reaching another accumulation territories at 1.3250, 1.3200 and 1.3150.

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USD/JPY: There is a bullish bias on the USD/JPY. This week and this month, the movement in the market would be determined by whatever happens to USD. A stronger USD would mean the market would continue going north, while a weaker USD would result in a protracted bearishness that could eventually lead to a "sell" signal.

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EUR/JPY: This cross traded lower on Monday, thus generating a "sell" signal in the market. It is likely that the demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 would be tested soon. One factor that may make this expectation possible is the weakness in EUR itself. It would be difficult for the cross to go seriously upwards when EUR is very weak.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 03, 2017

The index remains strong above the support level of 93.09 and looks forward to testing the resistance zone of 94.04, as the 200 SMA continues to provide the path for the short-term. If the index manages to break above 94.04, next target should be the 94.50 level. MACD indicator is turning neutral, calling for sideways in coming hours.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 93.09, take profit is at 94.04 and stop loss is at 92.15.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 03, 2017

The pair was smashed by a sell-off wave during Monday's session, consolidating the price action below the 200 SMA, which has been acting as a dynamic resistance. So far, GBP/USD is targeting the support level of 1.3209, at which could gain some momentum. However, we're expecting a rebound to correct recent losses.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3460 / 1.33592

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3309 / 1.3209

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3309, take profit is at 1.3209 and stop loss is at 1.3408.

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BITCOIN Analysis for October 2, 2017

Bitcoin has surged higher towards $4,386.80 level after bouncing off the $4,000 support level recently. It seems that the market has found confidence again after getting affected by the recent Initial Coin Offering cancellation and Bitcoin exchanges ban in China. Recently, as per news, South Korea has banned the Initial Coin Offering but this news could not quite shake up the market like the China did earlier and the gains were quite constant. The way the Cryptocurrency is showing strength by overcoming the recent obstacles and bans, it does clear one thing, Bitcoin has turned much strong and matured which will facilitate its further gains in the future. As per Bitcoin's founder the shocks that it absorbed recently made the Cryptocurrency much stronger in nature. Currently, the price is sitting at the edge of $4386.80 level where a daily close above the level will confirm the further bullish move towards $5,000 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and wider Kumo Cloud holding the price as support the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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The Pound burned its wings

And the last will be the first. The US dollar recorded its third quarterly decline in a row, which is its worst dynamics since the global financial crisis, but the increase in the likelihood of implementing the tax reform and tightening monetary policy of the Fed can return investors' interest in the greenback. On the contrary, the British pound finished September as the best performer among the G10 currencies due to expectations of an increase in the repo rate by the Bank of England in November, but the market is increasingly heard that such a step would be a mistake.

Monthly dynamics of the British pound

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Source: Bloomberg.

The first week of October allows the sterling to claim the role of the most interesting five-day currency because of the Conservative Party Conference, the anniversary of the flash accident, when against the background of low volatility its rate declined by 4% within a few minutes, and also due to the publication of important macroeconomic data on business activity. Yes, in the second quarter, the GDP of the UK slowed year on year from 1.8% to 1.5%, but the latest data on retail sales and the labor market can depend on economic growth in July-September. A hint can be given by data from purchasing managers, and its release is expected to cause a violent reaction in the pound.

Judging by the latest speeches by Theresa May, in which she discussed about the transition period after the divorce of Britain from the EU in 2019 and the need to pay for access to a single market, the Prime Minister is a supporter of a "soft" Brexit. Nevertheless, European Union leaders note the little headway in the Brexit talks, and May will have to find a compromise within her own Conservative party, whose October congress adds to the risks of casting a vote of no confidence in her leadership.

Thus, mixed data, the persistence of uncertainty around Brexit, the growth of political risks, and the US dollar that has risen from the ashes draw a gray picture for the bulls on the GBP/USD. Will the Bank of England be able to withstand all the negativity, whose main task is to maintain a strong sterling in order to limit the growth of inflation? If in September, much has happened to the BoE, then in October the situation can seriously change. Standard Bank believes that most of the news about monetary tightening has already been taken into account in quotations related to the pound of currency pairs, and as soon as at the beginning of November, the central bank raises the repo rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, the market will start to get rid of sterling in the background implementation of the principle "buy on the rumor, sell on the facts." The bank forecasts a drop in the GBP/USD price to the level of 1.28 by the end of the year.

Serious problems for the "bears" on the analyzed pair create a return to the markets of the reflation trade that dominates them at the beginning of this year. The implementation of the tax reform, the acceleration of US GDP and inflation will force the Fed to aggressively raise rates and strengthen the position of the US dollar.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair continues to implement the "Three Indians" pattern. Its future fate will depend on the ability of the "bears" to break the support at 1.326-1.327.

GBP / USD, daily chart

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