Global macro overview for 03/10/2016

Global macro overview for 03/10/2016:

The ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the USA has surprised the global investors yet again as it was better than expected. The investors anticipated the slight increase to the level of 50.4 points after a quite low number of 49.4 a month ago, but instead of it, the released number was at the level of 51.4 points. The details of the report revealed that general business conditions are slowly improving with increased sales and sales lead across all manufacturing sectors. Moreover, the domestic and international sales are moving up slightly across all manufacturing sectors as well. In conclusion, it looks like the US economy machine grinds into expansion once again and the secondary GDP reading might beat the expectations.

Let us now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bear camp seems to still have control over this market as another lower high had been made last Friday. The market is still trading below the golden trend line, but none of the important support/resistance levels have been violated yet. The next support is seen at the level of 1.1150 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 1.1254.

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Global macro overview for 03/10/2016

Global macro overview for 03/10/2016:

Interesting news has hit the mass media late Sunday afternoon: the British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that at the beginning of 2017 Britain will start the procedure for leaving the European Union. The David Cameron's successor ruled out the possibility of holding an early parliamentary election before 2020.According to Theresa May, an earlier election could cause unnecessary "instability". Moreover, she repeated that Brexit will be carried out without undue delay, which means she does not intend to wait until the autumn of 2017 and the German parliamentary elections. Experts have suggested that the possible change of the political system in Germany could help the UK in negotiations with the EU.

Let us now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame after the UK Prime Minister remarks. As we can see the market has made a new local low at the level of 1.2824 (at the time of writing), all support levels had been violated and currently bears have the control over the market. The next important support is seen at the level of 1.2801, which is a post-Brexit low.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 3. 2016

General overview for 03/10/2016:

The abc corrective cycle with the top at the level of 1.3192 had been labeled as wave (2)/b and now the market is trying to develop another wave down. The two key levels, marked as grey rectangle, has not been tested yet as the market is trading sideways. The longer-term bias is bearish and one more wave to the downside should be expected in this pair.

Support/Resistance:

1.2910 - WS2

1.3000 - Technical Support

1.3028 - 1.3048 - Demand Zone

1.3066 - Intraday Support

1.3144 - Weekly Pivot

1.3191 - Intraday Resistance

1.3241 - WR1

1.3261 - 1.3281 - Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading until a clearer trading setup occurs.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 3, 2016

General overview for 03/10/2016:

The intraday resistance at the level of 114.38 is still the key level for bears as any breakout above this level will be considered as a bullish impulsive wave development to the upside. Currently, the market is trading around the weekly pivot at the level of 113.50, so the sideways price action should be expected for some time. The longer-term bias is still bullish.

Support/Resistance:

112.07 - Technical Support

112.25 - Intraday Support

112.83 - WS1

113.50 - Weekly Pivot

114.38 - Intraday Resistance

114.78 - WR1

115.54 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading until a more clearer trading setup occurs.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 3, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of a significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, On August 18, signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

This week, daily persistence below 1.2950 (61.8% Fibonacci level) should be achieved in order to enhance the bearish side of the market. Initial bearish targets are located at 1.2670 and 1.2580.

On the other hand, note that daily fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opens the way towards the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched for a better SELL entry with a lower risk/reward ratio.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 3, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (lower limit of the depicted channel). That is why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advance was expected towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 0.7400.

On July 12, the price zone of 0.7350 - 0.7400 (upper limit of the depicted channel) enhanced a quick bearish decline towards the price levels of 0.6960 where the current bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, the price zone between 0.7470-0.7500 has been corresponding to the upper limit of the depicted movement channel where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expressed three weeks ago.

S/L should be lowered to 0.7400. T/P levels should be located at 0.7240, 0.7160 and 0.7060.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6960-0.6860 constitutes a significant support zone to be watched for a valid BUY entry if the current bearish swing extends below 0.7100.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 3, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June, a significant bearish breakdown below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (Fundamental Reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhances the bearish scenario towards 1.2700 (nearest bearish projection target) where price action should be watched for a short-term BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 constitutes the recent supply zone to be watched for new SELL entries if any bullish pullback extends above 1.3550 (significant supply level to be watched for sell entries as well).

Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair will remain trapped within the depicted consolidation range between 1.2700 and 1.3550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 3, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May, June and August).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish fixation below 1.1000 is needed to enhance this bearish scenario.

On July 27, the EUR/USD pushed above the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range). Hence, further bullish advance towards 1.1250 was executed as expected.

Temporary bullish breakout was expressed above the price zone of 1.1250 (supply level 1). However, significant bearish rejection was seen on August 26.

On September 6, evident bullish recovery and a temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 were expressed, but evident bearish pressure was expressed on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Bearish closure below 1.1250 (supply level 1) should be defended to maintain enough bearish pressure and enhance the bearish side in the market again. Initial bearish targets should be located at 1.1050 and 1.0990.

On the other hand, a daily candlestick closure above 1.1250 (Supply level 1) allows bullish advance towards 1.1400 (Supply level 2) where a better SELL entry can be offered. S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.1450.

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Gold analysis for October 03, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,316.50. According to the 4H time frame, I found a large falling wedge formation (bullish formation). The price is in the middle of the falling wedge. My advice is to watch for a breakout of the wedge formation (current buy point at $1,343.50). Anyway, if the price breaks the level of $1,310.00 before the larger upward movement, Gold may again visit a lower diagonal around the price of $1,294.00. According to the Daily time frame, I found successful rejection of 100SMA, which is a sign that buyers are in control at this point.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,320.30

R2: 1,321.00

R3: 1,322.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,318.00

S2: 1,317.80

S3: 1,316.75

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for breakout of wedge formation to confirm upward continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/NZD for October 3, 2016

GBP/NZD is trending downwards although it found strong support near 1.7670 level. Nevertheless, the descending channel has made correction up, so the pair formed a bearish divergence on MACD. This means that the downtrend remains valid especially after the breakout of the 38.2% Fibs applied to the channel breakout.

Currently GBP/NZD could correct up and if it does, the good entry point to go short is around 50% Fibs level (1.7785) to target 23.6% Fibs (1.7530). The stop loss should be just above 61.8% Fibs (1.7900).

Support: 1.7670, 1.7530, 1.7300

Resistance: 1.7785, 1.7900

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 3, 2016

GBP/USD continued to move lower as projected in the previous analysis. The pair tested the first two targets and stopped at 261.8% Fibs. (1.2852). If this level holds, GBP/USD might start a correctional wave up, however it could be too early. Consider holding short positions targeting the final Fibonacci target at 361.8% (1.2775).

Support: 1.2855, 1.2775

Resistance: 1.2930

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EUR/NZD analysis for October 03, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways at the price of 1.5445. According to the daily time frame, the price has broken supply trendline and is trading above 21 SMA and 50 SMA, which is a sign that we may expect futher upward movement. According to the 1H time frame, a trading range lies between the price of 1.5332 (support) and 1.5503 (resistance). My advice is to placed pending buy stop at the price of 1.5505 with potential targets at 1.5635 and 1.5825. The potential boost for EUR/NZD may happen during the RBNZ Gov Wheeler speech or GDT Price Index.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.5485

R2: 1.5523

R3: 1.5587

Support levels:

S1: 1.5355

S2: 1.5315

S3: 1.5250

Trading recommendations for today: watch for buying opportunities above 1.5503.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 03, 2016

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.2916. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.2945 (this level of 0.9965 coincides with the double top) to the bottom around 1.2845. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.2919 followed by 1.2986, while daily support 1 is found at 1.2845. Also, the level of 1.2845 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the GBP/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.2916 towards the first support level at 1.2845 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.2845, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2845 with the next objectives of 1.2800 and 1.2750. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.2950, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 03, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1219. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.1200 to the bottom around 1.1246. The level of 1.1200 coincides with 50% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. Since the trend is above the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the EUR/USD pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.6615. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to move between 1.1219 and 1.1261. On the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.1261 and 1.1280. Also, it should be noticed that, the level of 1.1219 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.1219 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 1.1219. If the trend breaks the price at 1.1219 (first resistance) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.1280 in order to test double top. However, stop loss is to be placed below the level of 1.1181.
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Technical analysis of USDX for October 3, 2016

The Dollar index continues to trade inside the short-term bullish channel. However, the price remains trapped in a longer-term triangle pattern with no clear direction, as during the last few weeks the index has been moving sideways.

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Black line -horizontal resistance

Red line - upper triangle boundary resistance

Blue line - lower triangle boundary support

The index is trading around the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud. The price is in a neutral trend moving sideways. Short-term support lies at 95.39-95.30 and the next level at 95. Short-term resistance can be found at 95.90 and the next level at 96.30.

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Green line - medium-term trend support trend line

The Dollar index has been trading sideways for the last 5 weeks. The price remains above the upward sloping green trend line support and below the Ichimoku cloud resistance. The index is trapped inside a trading range with no clear direction. Traders need to be patient and wait for a confirmed breakout signal.

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Technical analysis of gold for October 3, 2016

Gold price is trading near its trading range lows. Price is testing important support but bearish momentum is not very strong. I expect a bounce from the current levels at least towards $1,340-50.

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Gold price is trading below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud and just above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Gold price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Short-term resistance is at $1,320 while support is at $1,310-$1,300.

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Red lines - trading range

Black lines - trend line support

Gold is testing daily cloud support at the lower cloud boundary. Price remains above the medium-term trend upward sloping trend line. The sideways move continues and longer-term trend remains neutral with no clear direction as we remain trapped inside the trading range. Being at the lower boundaries of the range, I prefer being bullish with tight stops at the previous lows.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 3, 2016

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EUR/JPY - Daily

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EUR/JPY - 4 Hourly

Wave summary:

The correction in the wave ii can make the price move a little higher to 114.54 before turning lower in the wave iii towards 108.03 on the way lower to the ideal downside target at 104.15. Once this target is reached, the long-term corrective decline from 149.56 is expected to be completed, and a new impulsive rally higher will be expected.

For now, we still focus on the downside for a break below a minor support at 113.53 and more importantly below support at 112.56 confirming the decline to 108.03 and below.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 112.85 with stop placed at 115.45. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 114.54 or upon a break below 113.53 and use the same stop at 115.45

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 03, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 101.10. The pair posted some consolidations, but still stands above its horizontal support at 101.10. Meanwhile, the rising 50-period moving average is playing a support role, and maintains the upside bias. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. On Friday, U.S. stock indexes rebounded almost 1%. Energy shares advanced on oil prices' pushing above $48 a barrel, and financial shares swung to the upside after an AFP report said that Deutsche Bank was close to a reduced $5.4 billion settlement with U.S. authorities over its sale of mortgage-backed securities.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 164 points (+0.9%) to 18308 posting the sixth straight session of triple-digit move. The S&P 500 increased 17 points (+0.8%) to 2168, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 42 points (+0.8%) to 5312.

To conclude, as long as 101.10 holds on the downside, we expect a new rise to 101.85 at first. A break above this level would open the path to further advance toward 102.10.

Therefore, as long as 100.45 is not broken, look for a new rise to 101.45 at first. A break above this level would open the path to further advance toward 102.05.

Trading Recommendation: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 101.85 and the second one at 102.10. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 100.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 100.45. The pivot point lies at 101.10.

Resistance levels: 101.85, 102.10, 102.45

Support levels: 100.70, 100.45, 99.60

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 03, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range as bias remains bullish. The pair stands firmly above its horizontal support at 0.9685, and is holding on the upside. Meanwhile, the 50-period moving average is heading upward, and acts as a support role. Besides, the relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality area at 50. U.S. government bonds pulled back as investors regained their risk appetite at the expense of haven debt. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 1.605% from 1.556% Thursday.

Therefore, as long as 0.9685 holds on the downside, look for a new rise to 0.9755 at first. A break above this level would open the path to further advance toward 0.9790 as possible.

Resistance levels: 0.9755, 0.9790, 0.9825

Support levels: 0.9645, 0.9605, 0.9575

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 03, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to prevail its downside movement as the bias remains bearish. The pair broke below the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, which calls for a new decline. Besides, the 20-period moving average is turning down, and is also playing a resistance role. In addition, 0.7300 represents a key horizontal resistance, and the upside potential should be limited by this level. In these perspectives, as long as 0.7300 holds on the upside, we expect further downsides to 0.7225, and even to 0.7220 as likely.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7225. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7200. The pivot point stands at 0.7300. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7330 and the second one at 0.7350.

Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7350, 0.7405

Support levels: 0.7225, 0.7200, 0.7175

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 03, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will release a series of economic reports too such as Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1285.

Strong Resistance:1.1279

Original Resistance: 1.1268.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1257.

Target Inner Area: 1.1231.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1205.

Original Support: 1.1194.

Strong Support: 1.1183.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1177.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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AUD/USD almost reached profit target, remain bearish

The price has dropped perfectly and almost reached our profit target before making a pullback to resistance. Today we remain bearish continuing to sell for a continued drop to 0.7575, as the price has broken its ascending support-turned-resistance line.

RSI (34) is below our descending resistance line signalling a bearish move is still in progress.

Stochastics (21,3,3) is right below 87% resistance from which the pair has bounced triggering a bearish move.

Sell below 0.7650. Place stop loss at 0.7700 and take profit at 0.7575.

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AUD/NZD potential head and shoulders reversal, turn bearish

The price is forming a potential head and shoulders pattern which is a very strong reversal one. We anticipate this by selling at 1.0550 (start of second shoulder) for a reversal down to neckline support at 1.0475.

Stochastics (21,3,3) is also approaching a key level of resistance at 90% where we expect price to react from.

Sell below 1.0550. Place stop loss at 1.0600 and take profit at 1.0475.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 3, 2016

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EUR/NZD - Daily

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EUR/NZD - 4 Hourly

Wave summary:

The wave [ii] most likely has been completed with the test of 1.5298, and the wave [iii] of iii higher is now expected. We are about to enter the part of an impulsive rally that normally proves to be the strongest. We are looking for an extension towards at least 1.5969. The 1.5969 wave iii will be 161.8% the length of wave i, but we will not be surprised to see the wave iii extending even more and moving higher to 1.6491, where the wave iii will be 261.8% the length of wave i.

In the short term, we need a break above a minor resistance at 1.5440 and more importantly a break above 1.5553 to confirm that the higher wave iii is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5515 with stop placed at 1.5120. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5300 or upon a break above 1.5440 and use the same stop at 1.5120.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 03, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair has started the week with a bearish gap, and is likely to post further decline. The downward momentum is further reinforced by its descending 20-period moving average, which maintains the strong selling pressure. Besides, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. On Sunday, British Prime Minister Theresa May said she would trigger the process for the U.K. to leave the European Union by the end of March. To sum up, as long as the resistance at 131.95 is not surpassed, the pair is likely to drop to 130.70 at first, and even to 130.20 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 130.70. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 130.20. The pivot point stands at 131.95. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 132.45 and the second one, at 132.80.

Resistance levels: 132.45, 132.80, 133.65

Support levels: 130.70, 130.20, 129.65

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 03, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Tankan Manufacturing Index. The US will release some Economic Data such as Total Vehicle Sales, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So there is a probability USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 101.95.

Resistance. 2: 101.75.

Resistance. 1: 101.55.

Support. 1: 101.30.

Support. 2: 101.10.

Support. 3: 100.90.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 3, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has become neutral in the short and long terms. The market did nothing significant last week, save testing the resistance line at 1.1250 and the support line at 1.1150. A rise in momentum would force the market to go above that resistance line or below the support line, which may happen this week.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument is bearish in the short term, but bullish in the long term. Further sideways movement is anticipated this week, which would culminate in the market moving seriously upwards or downwards in the week. A sharp fall of EUR/USD would result in a rally in USD/CHF.

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GBP/USD: In the 4-hour and daily charts, the outlook is bearish. The Cable is weak, in spite of the fact that price was caught in an equilibrium phase last week, price may break out lower, testing the accumulation territories at 1.2900, 1.2850, and 1.2800 eventually. The accumulation territory at 1.2950 has been tested and it would need to be tested again before price goes further lower. That accumulation territory is adamant; but since the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for October 2016 (except in a few instances when some pairs would showcase some forms of bullishness), further bearish movement is possible on the Cable.

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USD/JPY: This pair is bearish in the long term and bearish in the short term. Price moved between the supply level at 102.00 and the demand level at 100.00. There is a need for price to go above the supply level or the demand level, so that there could be a directional bias. That is exactly what is anticipated this week.

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EUR/JPY: The situation around this cross pair is similar to that of USD/JPY. The outlook is bearish in the daily chart, but neutral in the 4-hour chart. This week, a movement to the downside would result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, while a movement to the upside would threaten it. Since the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this month, the EUR/JPY pair has a high probability of going further south.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis for October 03, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EURUSD had dropped lower towards 1.1150 levels last week as expected and discussed, before pulling back sharply higher. The pair seems to be trading at 1.1232 levels at this moment of writing, after printing highs at 1.1250 levels as depicted on the 4H chart view. The wave structure now reveals that the pair is into a broader consolidation triangle structure with decreasing resistance and constant support at 1.1120 levels as depicted here. Ideally, prices should remain below 1.1280/90 levels to keep the bearish structure intact, but a break higher would bring back bulls in control and open doors for a push through 1.1550 levels. It is hence recommended to remain short, with risk at 1.1290 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1283 levels, while support is seen at 1.1120 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 1.1290, target is open.

Good luck!

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Silver Technical Analysis for October 03, 2016.

Technical updates and chart setups:

Silver had rallied through $19.60/70 levels last week as expected and discussed and has reversed sharply from there as seen on the 4H chart view. The metal is seen to be trading at $19.13 levels for now and it is just a matter of time before it reverses lower towards fresh swing lows. The wave structure also indicates that the metal has now completed its 3 wave corrective rally towards $19.60/70 levels and is expected to drop lower unfolding into 5 waves towards $18.20 levels at least. Please note that the metal might produce intraday rallies from current levels but they should remain well capped below $19.60/70 levels and it should be viewed as opportunity to add further short positions. It is recommended to remain short for now and also look to add further at higher levels. Immediate resistance is seen at $20.10 levels, while support is at $18.65 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop above $20.05, target is open.

Good luck!

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Gold Technical Analysis for October 03, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has printed yet another low at $1,312.00/13.00 levels as expected and discussed earlier. The yellow metal is seen to be trading at $1,316.00/17.00 levels for now, looking to produce a counter trend rally towards $1,330.00/31.00 levels before resuming lower again. The wave structure also indicates that the metal has unfolded into 5 waves from $1,352.00 through $1,313.00 levels and is expected to produce a 3 wave corrective rally. Please not that fibonacci 0.618 resistance is also passing through $1,332.00 levels as depicted here and a bearish reaction is expected if prices manage to reach there. It is recommended to take profits on short positions now and wait for opportunities to go short at higher levels. Immediate resistance is now seen at $1,340.00/43.00 levels, while support is at $1,306.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Please book profits on short positions taken earlier.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 03, 2016

The index is moving in sideways and looking for a clear trend ahead of the US NFP due to this Friday. Currently, a strong resistance is seen at the 95.79 level, where a breakout should open the doors to strengthen the bullish bias across the board, in a short-mid term basis. MACD indicator is supporting a possible pullback that shouldn't go below the lows from September 22th session.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.49 / 95.79

H1 chart's support levels: 95.01 / 94.61

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.49, take profit is at 95.79 and stop loss is at 95.19.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 03, 2016

The pair remains supported by the 1.2948 area, where the buyers are highly active and trying to strengthen the upside bias. However, the 200 SMA at H1 chart is still capping further gains and that's why we're still on the bears' side. To confirm that scenario, then we should see a breakout below the 1.2948 level, in order to test the 1.2900 psychological level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3037 / 1.3116

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2948 / 1.2901

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2948, take profit is at 1.2901 and stop loss is at 1.2998.

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