Gold : analysis for October 21, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,253.52 in a volume below average. We are still waiting for a larger volume and stronger price action. Our submajor Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,245.00 is again on the test, so be careful when buying gold. If the price breaks the level of 1,245.00 in a high volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1,262.00 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak demand and weak price action. Any larger supply may confirm futher bearish movement and a bearish corrective phase. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,227.00.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,248.47


R2: 1,251.87


R3: 1,257.37


Support levels


S1: 1,237.47


S2: 1,234.07


S3: 1,228.57


Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance level.


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Daily analysis of Silver for October 21, 2014

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Overview


As shown from the today's H4 chart, the metal is stabilizing above the support level of 17.30 after its failure to break last week. Currently, we must wait for retesting the Support level again and closing below to get the bearish move opportunity according to its rebound from the resistance level of 17.50. In that case, we will get a good opportunity to sell below the support level till testing the next support level of 17.00. Therefore, we can consider our first target few pips above this support level, but as long as the price is still above the support level of 17.30, this cancels the bearish move scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (18.00), R2 (17.75), R1 (17.50), S1 (17.30), S2 (17.00), S3(17.75).




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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 21, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been moving between 0.7900 and 0.8070. It should be noted that the key level is set at the level of 0.7900 which represents the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart. Equally important, the double top will be formed at the 0.8070 level. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will be a good idea to buy above 0.7900 with the first target of 0.8030. It will call for an uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 0.8070. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, consequently the stop loss should be set below 0.7900 at the price of 0.7853.


Notes :



  • We expect a new range about 161 pips this week.

  • The key level will set at the level of 0.8070.

  • The resistance will set at the price of 0.8070.

  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.



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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 21, 2014

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Overview :



  • The USD/CHF pair is going to set strong resistance at the level of 0.9525 and the minor resistance has set at 0.9485. The supports set at levels of 0.9400 and 0.9360 respectively. Also, it should be noted that the weekly pivot point has already set at the price of 0.9440. Equally important, the price is still moving around the key level at 0.9494 today. Moreover, the USD/CHF pair has still been below 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels since October 15, 2014. As a result, the price has already formed the strong support at this spot of 0.9400 - 0.9360 and it is now approaching it in order to test it. Another thought, the RSI calls for an uptrend. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair will get an upside rather convincing momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. Indicating a bullish opportunity above the 0.9400 level, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.9400 with a first target of 0.9485 (this level coincides with weekly resistance 1) and it will call for an uptrend to continue bullish towards 0.9525. The level of 0.9525 coincides with the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 21, 2014

General overview for 21/10/2014 11:40 CET


The golden channel trend line has capped the market at the level of 1.1293, making this level a high for wave (b) blue. Currently the most appropriate labeling would suggest another wave down to complete wave (c) blue of the overall cycle. If this assumption is correct, then the price should test the level of 1.1209 and possibly break it.


Support/Resistance:


1.1381 - WR1


1.1293 - Intraday Resistance


1.1281 - Weekly Pivot


1.1209 - Intraday Support


1.1178 - WS1


1.1070 - 1.1080 Demand Zone |Key Level|WS2


Trading recommendations:


As long as the price trades above the level of 1.1070 the uptrend is intact and higher prices are expected here. Buying the dips is the way to trade this market, both for swing and day traders.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 21 2014

General overview for 21/10/2014 11:10 CET


Quiet trading conditions have caught the current market in a range zone between the levels of 136.26 - 137.00, but the more expected breakout of this range seems to be to the upside as the internal sub-cycles have not been completed yet. For the upside cycle, the projected target levels are in the supply zone between the levels of 137.77 - 139.94 and price should be capped around this zone and reverse.


Support/Resistance:


137.86 - WR1


137.77 - 137.94 - Supply Zone


136.99 - Intraday Resistance


136.26 - Intraday Support


135.99 - Weekly Pivot


135.27 - WS1


134.11 - Swing Low


Trading recommendations:


The market is still trading above the level of 135.99 and the intraday uptrend is intact - higher prices are expected here. Please notice that this is wave B which is making such trading conditions. It might get choppy but overall buying the dips is the way to trade this market.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 21, 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6186


R2: 1.6146


R1: 1.6082


Current spot: 1.6045


S1: 1.6025


S2: 1.6000


S3: 1.5951


Technical summary:


The complex correction from 1.6446 has produced a spike lower to 1.5951, which could be that final nail in this corrections coffin that we needed, but short term a break above 1.6082 is needed to indicate that the correction finally is over at 1.5951, while a break above resistance at 1.6243 will be the final confirmation, that a new impulsive trend higher towards 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6830 is developing.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.5985 was hit and we will only buy after a break above 1.6082 with stop at 1.5945.


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#USDX Technical analysis for October 21, 2014

The Dollar index continues its downward pullback towards 84 which was our target for this downward correction once 85 was broken. Short-term trend remains bearish although we should not ignore the daily and weekly break out that occurred and changed longer-term trend to bullish. So this downward pull back should be considered a buy opportunity for the longer-term.


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Red line = price channel


Black line= resistance trend line


Blue line = support


The Dollar index remains below the Ichimoku cloud and below the black downward sloping resistance trend line. As I said in my last analysis, as long as the index remains below the trend line and the cloud, the trend is bearish and we should expect to see the index at the 38% retracement at 84.


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Black line= resistance trend line


The Dollar index has seen the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen cross over and this was a bearish sign as I noticed yesterday. I expect the index to move towards the Ichimoku cloud and the 38% retracement. So trend remains bearish for the short-term. The chikou span is approaching strong support and we should soon know if the correction will continue towards 82.50 or it will stop at 84.


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Intraday trading recommendations on USD/JPY for October 21, 2014

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The pair has been in a down trend for 2 weeks. In yesterday's session the pair was faced strong resistance at 107.50 parallel resistance and 108.00, 20Dsma. Until the pair closes above 108.00, bears have an upper hand in the near term. In today's Asia's session the pair is trading at 106.95. We recommend selling at the market price target of 106.42, 50Dsma. In case, the pair closes below 106.41 we will add further bearish thoughts in the near term. For the medium term view, after a daily close below 105.90 only, the pair will weaken further.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 21, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair printed lows at 134.20/30 levels last week before pulling back towards 137.00 as seen here. Please note that the pair has broken recent trend line resistance and has entered into the buy zone again. Immediate support is seen at 135.80/90, followed by 135.20 and 134.20, while resistance is seen at 138.00, followed by 139.00 and higher up respectively. It is recommended to enter long positions on dips around 135.20/30 levels which is also the fibonacci 0.618 support ( of the rally between 134.25 to 137.00 ). Furthermore, the resistance turned support trend line is coinciding around 135.20/30 levels as seen here.


Trading recommendations:


Look to enter long positions around 135.20/30, stop is at 134.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 21, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has bounced off the 1.5000 levels as expected and reached initial resistance at 1.5200/50 as seen here. The pair is expected to pullback towards 1.5100 and further rally towards 1.5320/30 at least. Immediate support is seen at 1.4975, followed by 1.4750/60 and lower, while resistance is at 1.5320/30, followed by 1.5450, 1.5550 respectively. It is recommended to to book profits on long positions taken earlier, and again enter at 1.5100; risk remains at 1.4950. The structure indicates that a top might be in place at 1.5550 and that bears should remain in control till prices remain lower than 1.5500/50. The current rally could just be a counter trend.


Trading recommendations:


Book profits on long positions. Again enter buying around 1.5100 levels, stop is below 1.4950, target is 1.5320.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis on USD/CAD for October 21, 2014

In yesterday's session again the pair was rejected at the highest close level of 1.1297, fell back to 1.1250. At the end of the day it erases its losses and closed just below the opening price. For an intraday view, the prices are trading below the key hourly moving averages. In the h4 chart, we can observe lower lows and lower highs. This strategy will be breached once the pair closes above 1.1298 levels. But today in Asia's session the pair is facing resistance at the descending trend line. For an hourly view, the pair has support at 1.1268, below this, 1.1260 and 1.1251 will act as hourly trend decider levels. We recommend selling below 1.1251 for targets at 1.1235, 1.1222, 1.1211 and 1.1200. Buying above 1.1300 for targets at 1.1334 and 1.1360 (intraday).


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In case, if the pair closes above 1.1298 on a daily basis immediately we can see 75-85 pips on the higher side. On the weekly basis, the pair has support at 1.1257, 1.1227 and 1.1211 levels. The weekly support is at 1.1195 (20Dsma). The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.1184-1.1298 levels. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.1300 for targets at 1.1385 levels on a positional basis.


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Technical analysis on USD/CHF for October 21, 2014

The pair fell below the 20 Dsma and closed below that. The pair made a minor base at 0.9400 levels and moving inch higher by making lower lows for 3 sessions. For the near term the trading pattern is framed between 0.9511 (20Dsma) and 0.9401. On the bullish front, in case if the pair closes above 0.9511 levels, we can expect a 50-80-pip rise. In case, if the pair falls below 0.9400, it can extend its fall to 0.9360-0.9345 levels. The weekly support level is at 0.9345 (50Dsma). In case, if the pair closes below 0.9345 levels, we can see a sharp correction to 0. 9300 and 0.9280 levels and even further lower towards 0.9200 (20Wsma). We recommend selling only below 0.9400 levels.


Support: 0.9400, 0.9345, 0.9300


Resistance: 0.9480, 0.9510, 0.9562


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For an hourly trading view, the prices are trading below 12ema and 35DEMA. Today in Asia's session the 34hrsma is providing some support at 0.9425 levels. In the h4 chart, the pair fell below the base triangle, the height of the triangle is 219 pips. Couple of times the pair tried to breach the base of the triangle, but was unable to close above the base of the triangle. We recommend selling below 0.9415 for targets at 0.9406, 0.9395 and 0.9345 levels. Buying above 0.9340 for target at 0.9460.


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Technical analysis on GBP/USD for October 21, 2014

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The pair managed to close above 20Dsma in the previous session. It happened after 18 trading sessions. Whenever the cable closes above 20Dsma, on the very second day the pair closes in the deep red. It represents the 20Dsma acting at the trend decider level. In yesterday's session the pair took support at the descending trend line. The pair has immediate resistance at 1.6181, 1.6196, the 50.0 fib level, above this, the 4-month descending trend line is acting as a strong resistance level. The cable has been struggling to give an upside breakout from the wedge pattern. The pair has good support between 1.6135 to 1.6126, the 38.2 fib level.


Resistance 1.6182, 1.6196, 1.6227


Support 1.6135-1.6126, 1.6080, 1.6030


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For an intraday view, the prices are trading above 12ema and 35DEMA. The cable has support at 1.6144, below this, 1.6126 and 1.6116 will act as support levels. The selling pressure will increase below 1.6116 and a candle h4 close below the descending trend line will create panic. We recommend buying above 1.6181 target 1.6226 levels. Selling below 1.6144, with target at 1.6126, 1.6116, 1.6090, 1.6075 and 1.6040 levels. Safe selling below 1.6125.


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Technical analysis of Silver for October 21, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver has been trading between $17.20 and $17.50 levels for a few days now. It is quite possible that the metal will re-tests the lows at sub $17.00 levels before rallying towards fresh high above $18.00. Resistance is seen at $17.80 (interim), $18.00, $18.80 and higher, while support is seen at $17.00 levels, followed by $16.60/70 and lower respectively. It is recommended to remain long for now and also look to buy further at lower levels. A push above $18.00 could see prices extending further up towards $18.80 and higher since the outer trend line resistance could be broken. On the flip side, only a break below $16.60/70 would delay matters.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop is at $16.40, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 21, 2014

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When the European market opens, there is no economic news to be released, but the US will release the economic data: Existing Home Sales, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2854.

Strong Resistance:1.2846.

Original Resistance: 1.2834.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2822.

Target Inner Area: 1.2792.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2762.

Original Support: 1.2750.

Strong Support: 1.2738.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2730.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 21, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the Existing Home Sales and the US will release some economic data such as Existing Home Sales. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 107.31.

Resistance. 2: 107.10.

Resistance. 1: 106.89.

Support. 1: 106.63.

Support. 2: 106.42.

Support. 3: 106.21.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of Gold for October 21, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold made a high at $1,250.00 levels on October 15, 2014. Currently trading at $1,246.00/47.00, the metal is preparing for a pullback towards $1,208.00/10.00. This could just a correction, before the metal again rallies to a new high at $1,275.00 and $1,295.00 respectively. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,250.00, while support is seen at $1,205.00, followed by $1,183.00 respectively. Please also note that the back side of the inner down trend line could also provide support around $1,208.00/10.00 levels. Furthermore, $1,208.00 is also the fibonacci 0.618 support of rally between $1,183.00 and $1,250.00 levels. Look to again buy on dips.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now and look to buy around $1,208.00/10.00. Aggressive traders may go short with stop at $1,255.50 and a target at $1,210.00.


Good luck!


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Daily analysis of USDX for October 21, 2014

At the H4 chart, the USDX continues to find support on the bullish trend line at the 85.04 level, so that eventually, the USDX could rise to the level of 86.00 in the medium term. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a breakout at the trend line, the next target would be the support level of 84.47.


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H4 chart's resistance levels: 85.06 / 85.65


H4chart's support levels: 84.52 / 83.86


The USDX is consolidating below the 85.03 level. However, remember that this instrument has found strong support at the 84.81 level in the past. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that the USDX remains below the 200 SMA in the H1 chart, so the bearish bias is very strong in the USDX. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.03 / 85.27


H1 chart's support levels: 84.81 / 84.60


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 84.81, take profit is at 84.60, and stop loss is at 85.02.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 21, 2014

The GBP/USD is making a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6146, because this pair is in a corrective move in the daily chart. However, we must emphasize that the resistance level of 1.6235 is very strong, and those corrective movements on the GBP/USD could stop. The MACD is strengthening the current bullish bias on this pair, but we must not rule out a possible pullback to the 1.6235 level


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.6235 / 1.6326


Dailychart's support levels: 1.6146 / 1.6046


In the H1 chart, GBP/USD is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 1.6117 so the GBP/USD is trying to make a breakout at the level of 1.6170. This pair has formed a fractal above the 1.6170 level. However, if the GBP/USD takes a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6117.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6170 / 1.6216


H1 chart's support levels: 1.6117 / 1.6075


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6170, take profit is at 1.6216, and stop loss is at 1.6126.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 20, 2014

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Last week, the EUR/USD pair looked oversold and was trading beyond the lower limit of the channel before bullish momentum could get it back inside the channel.


That's why, price action around 1.2580-1.2600 (the lower limit of the channel) was important to determine the next destination.


Bullish recovery was expressed off 1.2500 and 1.2600 to push towards 1.2700 and 1.2830 (back inside the channel).


The origin of the bullish engulfing pattern (around 1.2600) provided a good BUY position as suggested in previous articles. It's running in profits now.


The upper limit of the movement channel (1.2880-1.2900) is being approached. Bearish pressure is anticipated to be applied offering a valid SELL entry.


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The medium-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2880-1.2900 (the recent consolidation zone).


A short-term bullish Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the 4H chart. 4H fixation above 1.2700 confirmed the reversal and allowed the bulls to reach 1.2850.


A valid BUY position was suggested around the origin of the bullish Head and Shoulders pattern (price level of 1.2660). The final target is being approached today around 1.2900.


Recommendation :


Price action should be watched around 1.2870-1.2900 (upper limit of the channel and previous broken demand level) for one more SELL position.Stop loss for this short position should be located above 1.2965.


On the other hand, price level of 1.2730-1.2760 should be watched for price action. A break below this price zone ( the lower limit of the 4H channel ) indicates a SELL position towards 1.2620 initially.


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