Fundamental analysis of USD/JPY for May 1, 2017

USD/JPY has been consolidating below 111.60 resistance level since last Wednesday. Currently, the price is struggling to break above the level to create a new high. Today Japan published the Final Manufacturing PMI at 52.7 which was expected to be unchanged at 52.8. This economic report provided little support to the yen today. Meanwhile, the United States unveiled the Core PCE Price Index which was negative as expected at -0.1% versus the previous reading of 0.2%. The Personal Spending was unchanged at 0.0% though it was expected to rise to 0.2%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, which creates high volatility, decreased to 54.8 which was expected to be at 56.6. Besides, the Construction Spending was published negative at -0.2% versus the expected level at 0.5%. USD is currently getting weaker amid downbeat econmic reports. If the yen manages to hold its gains, we may see further bearish move in this pair.

Now let us have a look at the technical picture. The price is currently trying to break above 111.60 resistance level. It has formed a medium-term corrective structure below 111.60 last Wednesday. In this scenario, if the price rejects the resistance at 111.60 and closes below this level by the end of the day, then we will be expecting the price to head towards 110.10 support level and further to 105.60. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 111.60 with a daily close, then we will be looking forward for more up move towards 114.60.

analytics59074f4a8183f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 1, 2017

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages with a bullish gap. The relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality level at 50 and is heading upwards. Additionally, the pair also broke above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands, which could signal a continuation of positive trend.

As long as support holds at 111.20, look for a further upside with targets at 112.15 and 112.45 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 112.15 and the second one at 112.45. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 111.00 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 110.65. The pivot point lies at 111.20.

Resistance levels: 112.15, 112.45, and 112.85

Support levels: 111.00, 110.65, and 110.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 1, 2017

USDCHFM30.png

USD/CHF is expected to extend its upside movement. The pair recorded a succession of higher tops and higher bottoms since January 10 and is holding on the upside. The upward momentum is further reinforced by rising 20-period moving average, which is playing a support role. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

As long as 0.9925 holds on the downside, look for a further upside toward 0.9970 and even 0.9990 in extension.

Resistance levels: 0.9970, 0.9985, and 1.000

Support levels: 0.9910, 0.9890, and 0.9850

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for May 01, 2017

analytics590737996b135.jpg

Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair seems to have produced a meaningful top at 1.0950 levels last week at last, or is very close to forming it. Looking at the wave count, the rally from 1.0580 levels looks to be completed by 5 waves as labelled here, terminating the wave (2) intermediate as well. Furthermore, waves 1 and 2 within the intermediate wave (3) are also looking complete now. By all probabilities, wave 3 should be produced to allow prices go lower towards 1.0700 levels at least. Please watch out for a sequence of lower lows and lower highs being produced till prices remain below 1.0950 levels respectively. Immediate support is seen at 1.0820 levels, while resistance lies at 1.0950 levels. A safe trading strategy is to keep selling on rallies.

Trading plan:

Please remain short with stop above 1.2950 levels, targeting 1.0580 and lower.

GBP/USD chart setups:

analytics59073b19aa251.jpg

Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair finally tops and reverses from 1.2960/70 levels as we had been waiting since last week. The pair has completed its wave counts as well by pushing 5 waves from 1.2360 levels and then turning lower again. Please also note that GBP/USD might have already completed waves 1 and 2 of the next big drop, which is expected to unfold into 5 waves and push prices lower towards at least 1.2000 levels if not further. Until prices remain below Friday's highs at 1.2964 levels, please look for lower lows from here. On the flip side, a consistent break above 1.2970 levels will push the price to try and test 1.30 and 1.31 levels, which looks less probable at this moment. The immediate support is seen at 1.2750 levels while the resistance is found at 1.1965 levels.

Trading plan:

Please remain short now with stop above 1.2965 levels, targeting lower.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for the USD ISM Manufacturing to be out at 10:00 a.m. EST today for some volatility.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 1, 2017

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is under pressure, as the key resistance lies at 0.6920. The technical picture of the pair is bearish, as the prices are capped by a bearish trend line (since Feb 22). The downward momentum is further reinforced by the declining 50-period moving average. In addition, the upside potential should be limited by a key resistance level at 0.6920.

As long as this level is not surpassed, look for a further decine to 0.6845 and even 0.6810 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6845. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6810. The pivot point stands at 0.6920. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6940 and the second one at 0.6970.

Resistance levels: 0.6940, 0.6970, and 0.7000

Support levels: 0.6845, 0.6810, and 0.6760

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of USD/JPY for May 01, 2017

analytics59073874cad5a.png

Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 111.91. According to the 1H time frame, I found the broken symmetrical triangle pattern, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. The projected target is set at the price of 112.40.

Resistance levels:

R1: 111.85

R2: 111.90

R3: 112.00

Support levels:

S1: 111.70

S2: 111.60

S3: 111.55

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of gold for May 1, 2017

analytics5907365653faf.png

Recently, the gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,262.00. According to the 4H time frame, I found that the price rejected the key supply trendline. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. I also found a bearish divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is another sign of weakness. Downward target is set at the price of $1,243.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,272.30

R2: $1,273.00

R3: $1,274.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,270.00

S2: $1,269.50

S3: $1,268.45

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 1, 2017

GBPJPYM30.png

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias above 143.80. The pair is above its rising 50-period moving average which plays the support role and maintains the upside bias. In addition, the downside potential should be limited by the key support at 139.55. Continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, but its extent should be limited.

Hence, as long as 143.80 is not broken, we expect a new rise to 145.00 and even to 145.60 in extension.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 145.00 and the second one at 145.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 143.30 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target may push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 143.00. The pivot point is at 143.80.

Resistance levels: 145.00, 145.60, and 146.35

Support levels: 143.30,143.00, and 142.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for May 1, 2017

EUR/USD has been corrective between 1.0850 to 1.0950 area since the French Election GAP last week. Today the Labor Day is celebrated around the globe so the banks and financial institutions in Europe are closed. Thus, there are no economic events on the EUR side to be published. On the USD side, today we have Treasury Sec Mnuchin to speak about Trump's upcoming policies for the US economy which is expected to cause high volatility in the market. Along with that, we have the US Core PCE Price Index report to be published which is expected to be negative at -0.1% versus the previous reading of 0.2%, Personal Spending is expected to increase by 0.2% which previously was at 0.1%. At the same time, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report is expected to decrease to 56.6 which previously was at 57.2.

Now let us have a look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the resistance of 1.0950 and as the previous French Election gap, the price is expected to continue moving with bearish bias. Currently, we will be looking forward to sell if the price breaks below 1.0850 with a daily close and we will target 1.0720 as our next lower target. On the other hand, if the price breaks above 1.0950 with a daily close we will be looking forward to buy with a target towards 1.1050-1.1120 resistance area.

analytics590721515f7b0.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for May 1, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD opened last week with strong gap-up as other EUR pairs did. Other EUR pairs moved further upwards following this gap-up – which was not filled – but the EUR/USD generally consolidated. There has been an attempt to breach the resistance line at 1.0950 to the upside, and this might meet a transitory success. However, the outlook on the market (as well as other EUR pairs), is bearish for this week. This means the gap that opened last week might eventually be filled.

1.png

USD/CHF: There is a short-term bearishness here; plus the price has generally moved between the support line at 0.9900 and the resistance line at 1.0000. That was a sort of sideways movement in the context of a downtrend. This week and next, the market is supposed to move below the support levels at 0.9900 and 0.9800, reinforcing the current bearishness in the market. On the other hand, the market could go above the resistance levels at 1.0000 and 1.0100, creating a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart.

2.png

GBP/USD: The cable was trading sideways from April 24 to 26 and then went further upwards to test the distribution territory at 1.2950 before closing around that distribution territory on Friday. Since April 10, the price has gone upwards by 570 pips (though the most serious bullish movement occurred on April 18). The outlook on the market is bullish for this month – GBP pairs may be seen going upwards in May. The distribution territories at 1.3000 and 1.3050 could be reached soon. Nonetheless, this does not rule out some bearish effort along the way, but the general movement would be bullish.

3.png

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair opened with a gap-up last week, and so were other JPY pairs. The price went further upwards, reaching the supply level at 111.50, and other supply levels at 112.00, 112.50 and 113.00 might possibly be tested. The upwards gap has resulted in a bullish bias in the market, but that may not last long, because the pair is likely to experience a large pullback this week. The outlook on the pair is also bearish for the month of May.

4.png

EUR/JPY: Just like other JPY pairs, this cross pair opened with a massive gap-up last week, and went further upwards on Tuesday. The price almost tested the supply zone at 122.00, and further northward journey may be experienced. However, this may not last long as the outlook on the market is bearish for this week and this month. Therefore, a serious selling pressure may assume soon.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 01/05/2017

Global macro overview for 01/05/2017:

The US Personal Income and Spending data are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT today and it will be one of the key events of the day. Market participants expect an increase in spending from 0.1% to 0.2% for the reported month, while the personal income should remain stable at the level of 0.4%. Nevertheless, the economic growth in the first quarter decreased by 0.7% at the slowest pace in three years, partially due to the sharply softer consumer spending. Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures increased just 0.3% in the first quarter - the smallest increase since 2009. In conclusion, today's data might disappoint market participants, however, a decrease in both personal spending and personal income should remain moderate.

Let's now take a look at the SPY index (SP500 ETF) technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The price is trading above all moving averages in a narrow range between the levels of 237.28 - 239.42. The most important support lies at 237.28 as any violation of this level will open the road towards the level of 235.74. The trading conditions are slightly overbought, so the bias remains to the downside during this week.

analytics5906fe62ca379.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 01/05/2017

Global macro overview for 01/05/2017:

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity in Japan in a form of PMI Manufacturing data was just a tick worse than expected. Market participants expected unchanged PMI data at the level of 52.8 points, but the number came at 52.7, so it was basically unchanged for the month. Any PMI above 50 signals expansion, while readings below that level point to contraction. April marked the eighth successive month when Japan's manufacturing PMI was above 50. In conclusion, the manufacturing sector of the Japanese economy is still holding the ground and might even provide another set of good and stable outcome in the future as the Bank of Japan had recently improved its 2017-18 outlook from 1.5% to 1.6% (in line with economists and global investors expectations as well).

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 timeframe. Bulls are trying to break above the technical resistance at the level of 111.80 which is 50%Fibo as well. Importantly, the market conditions remain overbought and there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator. The next support is seen at 110.85 and a break below this level will open the road towards the next important support at 110.54.

analytics5906f7fc0a93c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 01/05/2017

Trading plan for 01/05/2017:

The market activity remains sluggish as the exchanges in Singapore, Hong Kong, and China were on holiday, and only markets in Australia, New Zealand and Japan were open. In Europe, there is a bank holiday in Italy, Germany, France and Switzerland, so a lull trading conditions is expected as well.

On 1st May, the event calendar will be busy only during the US trading session with the ISM Manufacturing data and Personal Income and Personal Spending data on tap. The important report from Canada is the RBS Manufacturing PMI.

EUR/USD analysis for 01/05/2017:

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release at 02:00 pm GMT and the market participants are expecting a slight decrease from 57.2 to 56.6 points. Nevertheless, the index is still above the fifty level, that separates expansion from contraction, so expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment, and deliveries are still positive.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market is still trading around the recent swing high at the level of 1.0950 and the last week's gap between the levels of 1.0730 - 1.0820 is still not filled. Currently, the golden trend line provides the support around the level of 1.0854. If the level of 1.0820 is clearly violated, then the possibility of further rally downward will increase dramatically.

analytics5906f41e04756.jpg

GBP/USD analysis for 01/05/2017:

Last week's upbeat economic data from the UK still plays a major role in shaping a positive sentiment in this market so the price is trading around the recent swing highs. As anticipated many times before, the technical support zone between the levels of 1.2705 - 1.27772 is playing a major role in this market and only a clear, impulsive breakout below this zone will change the bullish bias into bearish. The immediate support is seen at the level of 1.2905 and the next target for bulls will be found around 1.3000 after the level of 1.2963 is violated.

analytics5906f42b988be.jpg

Market snapshot: Gold struggles with 61% Fibonacci resistance

Gold prices have rallied above the golden trend line and 61%Fibo retracement of the last swing down, but failed to break out towards the $1,300 level. Currently, the price is trading inside the gray support zone between the levels of $1,260 - $1,270 in oversold market conditions. A major move is expected later in the week when the NFP Payrolls data will be released.

analytics5906f43c44a8a.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY analysis for April 28, 2017

Forex analysis review
USD/JPY analysis for April 28, 2017

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 1, 2017

analytics5906ce1601bed.png

Wave summary:

As expected, the corrections is quite weak and will likely remain the same as the impulsive rally in wave iii continue to unfold towards 1.6655. In the short term, we will be looking for a move closer to 1.6000 before the price shows another minor corrective decline towards 1.5798 and then higher again.

R3: 1.6485

R2: 1.6115

R1: 1.6000

Pivot: 1.5800

S1: 1.5725

S2: 1.5670

S3: 1.5576

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5350. We will move our stop higher to 1.5705. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5798 and use the same stop.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 1, 2017

analytics5906ccae1d940.png

Wave summary:

We are looking for more corrective behavior in wave iv and another stab lower towards 120.67 and below it before the next impulsive rally takes us higher towards at least 123.11.

In the short term, a break below minor support at 121.24 will confirm that one more stab lower to 120.67 is needed to complete wave iv and set the stage for the next rally higher in wave v towards at least 123.11.

R3: 123.11

R2: 122.58

R1: 122.00

Pivot: 121.50

S1: 121.24

S2: 120.67

S3: 119.86

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 120.75.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 01, 2017

EURUSDH4.png

Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 1.0868 on the longer-term basis. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.0868 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a minor support in the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest levels of 1.0868 and 1.0804. So, buy above the level of 1.0868 with the first target at 1.0950 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and the next one at 1.1000. Besides, the level of 1.1000 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.0804, a further decline to 1.0715 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 01, 2017

GBPUSDH1.png

Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair faced strong resistance at the level of 1.2973 because the double top is set at the same point. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 1.2973 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2973, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 1.2973. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.2973 so it will be good to sell at 1.2973 with the first target at 1.2744 (pivot). It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.2582 in coming days. The daily strong support is seen at 1.2582. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.3135.

Weekly technical analysis:

  • Resistance 2: 1.3135
  • Resistance 1: 1.2973
  • Pivot Point: 1.2744
  • Support 1: 1.2582
  • Support 2: 1.2353
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for USD/CAD for May 1, 2017

analytics59067a3b344e8.pnganalytics59067a62552f0.png

Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top).

During the bearish pullback, the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support to the pair.

This allowed a further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

A few weeks ago, the bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced a further advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3580.

The expected bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains upside trading above 1.3580 (confluence of prominent tops) which has been breached earlier last week.

On the other hand, if the USD/CAD pair moves below 1.3300, it may become trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (1.3300-1.2970).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for May 1, 2017

analytics59067a432df24.png

In December 2016, the NZD/USD pair had been trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed a further advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (sell zone) where the bearish price action was expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 allowed a further decline toward 0.7100 then 0.6960 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

That is why a further fall was expected toward 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where a bullish position was suggested in previous articles.

Recently, a bullish breakout has been achieved above the depicted key level (0.6960). However, the pair failed to express enough bullish momentum above 0.7050.

Importantly, the depicted bullish 1-2-3 pattern remains valid as long as bullish fixation above 0.6860 is maintained on a daily basis. Expected projection target for the pattern is located around 0.7250.

On the other hand, the NZD/USD pair will be trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (0.6860-0.6960) until breakout occurs in either direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for May 01, 2017

USDX starts the week within a sideways range in the short-term, with the bears capped by the level of 98.83. A recovery can happen to fill the bearish gap left on April 24th, which should help to boost the index to reach the 100.00 handle in coming days. However, if the index plummets below 98.83, it can test the 98.42 level.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.28 / 99.97

H1 chart's support levels: 98.83 / 98.42

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 98.83, take profit is at 98.42 and stop loss is at 99.24.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 01, 2017

GBP/USD is looking to break above 1.2957, as the bulls gathered momentum across the board during last week. However, this rise has been done above the 200 SMA in the H1 chart in a slow tone. If that level gives up to the upside, it can rally to test the resistance zone of 1.3029. MACD indicator is turning flat, forecasting some sideways.

GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2957 / 1.3029

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2855 / 1.2652

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2957, take profit is at 1.3029 and stop loss is at 1.2887.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com