Technical analysis for USDX for February 27, 2019

The Dollar index has stopped its decline at important short-term Fibonacci retracement level. If we see a new upward move with higher highs and higher lows from the current levels, we should then expect another run higher towards 97 for the big test.

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Orange rectangle - major resistance area

Blue line - short-term trend line support

The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows holding above the blue trend line support. Price has stopped the decline at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and there are high chances of making a bounce from current levels. Major resistance remains at the orange rectangle area. To reach that level we first need to see a break above the short-term resistance of 96.75. Breaking above the orange rectangle will open the way for a move to 100. Support at 95.50 is critical for bulls as a break below it will open the way for a deeper decline towards 94-93.

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Technical analysis for Bitcoin for February 27, 2019

Bitcoin has made a two and half month move higher from $3,000$ to $4,250 where it tested important weekly resistance levels and got rejected. Medium- and long-term trend remain bearish.

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Blue line - major trend line resistance

Red lines - horizontal resistance levels

Orange rectangle - overbought RSI

With the RSI at overbought levels and turning lower, price getting rejected at both the blue downward sloping trend line and at the red horizontal resistance level, things do not look bullish for Bitcoin. Price remains below key resistance level of $4,400. A weekly close above this level will confirm medium-term trend change to bullish. Until then trend remains bearish. Short-term support is found at $3,650 and as long as price is above this level, bulls continue to hope for another challenge of the blue trend line resistance. Breaking above $4,400 will open the way for a move towards the next horizontal major resistance at $5,750. Until this happens, longer-term trend remains bearish and Bitcoin is vulnerable to a move below $3,000.

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Technical analysis for Gold for February 27, 2019

Gold price remains weak and vulnerable to a move towards $1,300. Despite Dollar weakness, Gold price remains below $1,330 trading around the break out area of $1,326-30.

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Purple lines - bullish channel

Blue lines - bear flag

Blue rectangle- target area

Gold price remains inside the medium-term bullish channel. Short-term price action looks like a bear flag is being formed. Support is at $1,321 and a break below this level will confirm the break down. Our short-term target is at $1,300. Resistance is found at $1,332. A break above this level could bring more bulls back in and push price to recent highs. Until then prices are vulnerable to the downside.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 27, 2019

EUR/USD has broken above short-term resistance at 1.1370 and has reached our second bounce target area as shown in previous posts. Short-term trend remains bullish as price continues to make higher highs and higher lows.

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Blue line - support trend line

Black line - RSI support trend line

Blue rectangle - second target area

Green line - support

Red line - major resistance trend line

EUR/USD is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the red downward sloping trend line resistance. This was our target area from low 1.13s. Traders should keep a close eye on the RSI support trend line. As long as the RSI is moving above it, the uptrend remains intact. Price is now approaching major resistance. A break above 1.1410-1.1425 will open the way for a test of the 1.1515 highs made at the end of January.

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BITCOIN Analysis for February 27, 2019

After a sharp drop below $4,000, Bitcoin is currently consolidating above $3,800 while being contained inside the dynamic support area of Kumo cloud.

MACD is currently forming a bullish cross over while the price is making the upward correction. After the impulsive bearish pressure recently, the price formed Bullish Extreme Divergence which is expected to lead the price at least towards $4,000 in the coming days. A daily close above $4,000 is expected to lead to further bullish pressure as it will break above the dynamic resistance of Kijun line as well.

On the contrary, a break below $3,800 area with a daily close is expected to lead the price towards $3,500-600 support area in the future.

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EURUSD: European economy continues to show slower growth

The European currency continued to trade in the side channel in tandem with the US dollar after the release of fundamental data indicating a further slowdown in the growth of the European economy.

According to the report, growth in bank lending to euro zone companies in January of this year slowed sharply, which is another signal to weaken the economic growth of the region.

According to the European Central Bank, lending to companies in January 2019 grew by 3.3% compared with January of the previous year, after growing by 3.9% in December. The M3 money supply indicator in January rose by 3.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, after rising 4.1% in December. Economists had expected the growth of the M3 indicator in January to be 4%. Household lending in January increased by 3.2% compared with the same period of the previous year, as in December.

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The decline in lending is directly related to growing concerns about international trade, as the eurozone economy is highly dependent on the availability of financing.

The weak report, testifying to the deterioration of their own prospects for companies in the eurozone, also affected the optimism of traders, putting on further growth of the euro. According to the European Commission, the sentiment index in the eurozone economy in February of this year fell to 106.1 points from 106.3 points in January.

The eurozone consumer confidence index rose slightly in February. According to the report, the confidence index rose from a negative level of -7.9 points to -7.4 points, fully coinciding with the expectations of economists. The business climate index remained unchanged, at the level of 0.69 points.

In the morning, a presentation was made by a member of the governing council of the European Central Bank, Jens Weidmann, who said that there was no reason for excessive pessimism about the prospects for the German economy. Let me remind you that Weidmann is the president of the Central Bank of Germany.

He also noted that the ECB had begun the process of normalizing its monetary policy, which is likely to be gradual and take several years. Weidmann also warned that the risks and side effects of the ECB's soft policies should not be underestimated. Let me remind you that he is a supporter of a tighter monetary policy and has repeatedly criticized the European regulator for zero interest rates.

In the second half of the day, all the market's attention will be focused on the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will continue his speech on the state of the US economy and monetary policy. Powell's speech before the House Financial Services Committee is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. Most likely, nothing new after yesterday's speech Powell will not say. However, immediately after the speech, the Fed Chairman will answer questions, which is a more interesting point.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, only a confident breakthrough and fixing above the resistance of 1.1400, which I personally doubt very much, will allow us to expect new highs in the area of 1.1430 and 1.1460 to be updated with the trading tool. A more interesting option for purchases will be a correction to support 1.1345 and 1.1315.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on February 27. The pound is growing, despite the overbought

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

The British pound rose in the morning, despite the fact that many technical indicators are in the overbought zone, which indicates the likely formation of a downward correction in the short term. At the moment, it is best to rely on new long positions after the breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3329, which opens up a real prospect of updating the maximum of 1.3386 and 1.3437, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the afternoon, the area of 1.3264 will be an acceptable level for opening long positions.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Sellers still hold the market below 1.3329 resistance, however, it is best to expect a larger decline in the pound after another unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above this range, which can lead to a larger downward correction in the area of 1.3264 and 1.3202, where I recommend fixing the profits. In case of further growth with the trend, consider short positions in GBP / USD is best to rebound from the highs of 1.3386 and 1.3437.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a downward correction, support will be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3264.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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XAU / USD: bulls retreat, but do not give up

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After impressive growth, gold retreated from its 10-month highs. According to experts, this rollback is likely to be of a technical nature: the bulls, apparently, decided to take a breath and fix a part of the profits.

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Meanwhile, given the bearish prospects of the greenback and the reluctance of the leading central banks to tighten monetary policy, the future of the precious metal appears in rather iridescent tones.

On the eve of the Fed, Jerome Powell, during a speech at the US Senate Banking Committee, said that the US economy is still strong, but the processes that the regulator is unable to control, (the slowdown in Chinese and European GDP growth, the uncertainty around trade wars and Brexit) be careful.

In addition, J. Powell noted increased market volatility, recognizing that financial conditions are now less favorable for economic growth than a year ago.

Thus, the regulator still intends to adhere to a patient approach in monetary policy, which is not very good news for a greenback.

Under these conditions, according to JP Morgan, the best assets for investment than gold and US-protected treasury securities will probably not be found. At the same time, the decline in the real rates of the US debt market should provide the XAU / USD pair a path to the north.

Gold can also receive support from the normalization of trade relations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom. If the parties manage to make a deal, then the tendency to weaken the dollar will continue, which will play in favor of the yellow precious metal. At the same time, it is possible that gold will still lose some of its positions due to a decrease in demand for the assets of the "safe haven", which, however, is unlikely to create serious problems for the bulls in precious metals.

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February 27, 2019 : EUR/USD is still holding some bullish gains around the lower limit of its channel.

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Since February 20, the EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating weak bullish recovery with sideway consolidations around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270).

This week, significant bullish recovery has emerged indicating a high probability of a quick bullish visit towards 1.1400-1.1460 where the upper limit of the daily movement channel is located.

On the other hand, please note that a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily basis. The pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285) (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

T/P level to be located around 1.1420 while S/L should be advanced to entry level (1.1315) to secure some profits.

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Fed: Fed Chairman confirmed a cautious approach to changing interest rates, which weakens the position of the US dollar

Yesterday, the European currency rose sharply against the US dollar, after the market fears were confirmed. Speaking in the US Congress, the head of the Fed once again made it clear that a cautious approach to changing interest rates will continue. This suggests that, at best, investors will be able to count on one rate increase this year.

Brexit and Theresa May

The British pound also rose after British Prime Minister Theresa May changed her approach to the Brexit agreement.

It became known yesterday that Theresa May agreed to a vote in Parliament to adjourn Brexit, but on condition that the lawmakers rejected her proposal to leave the EU next month. The new Brexit proposal, which May is currently working out with EU representatives, will be put to a vote on March 12. The whole emphasis is shifted to solving the problem of the border with Ireland.

This option, of course, reduces the likelihood that the UK will leave the block without an agreement, which will support the British pound this week.

As for the technical picture of GBPUSD, it is necessary to note that the pair has approached very large resistance levels on the daily charts, which coincide with the highs of September 2018. Their breakthrough will lead to a test of the highs from July 2018 around 1.3362. In the case of a downward correction, support will be provided by areas 1.3150 and 1.3050.

Jerome Powell and the Fed

As noted above, the US dollar declined during the Fed chairman's speech, ignoring the data on new US home mortgages, which declined in December 2018.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, the laying of new homes in December decreased by 11.2% compared with the previous month and amounted to 1.078 million homes per year. Building permits in December increased by 0.3% compared with November and amounted to 1.326 million homes per year. Economists had expected new home bookmarks to fall by 1.3%.

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The confidence of American consumers, as in many eurozone countries, is gradually returning. According to the Conference Board report, the consumer confidence index in February 2019 rose to 131.4 points against 121.7 points in January. Economists had expected the index to be 124 points in February.

Restoration of consumer expectations is directly related to the growth of US stock markets and a decrease in their volatility, as well as the resumption of the work of the US government after the January "shutdown".

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his speech, stated that monetary policy decisions will continue to depend on incoming data in the future.

According to him, despite the fact that the current economic situation is healthy and prospects are favorable, in recent months there have been reciprocal currents and ambiguous signals for the prospects for the US economy.

Powell also noted that the labor market remains strong, and signs of strengthening wage growth are an event that can only be welcomed.

Do not forget the Fed chairman to speak out about the inflation background. In his opinion, restrained inflationary pressure allows us to be patient with monetary policy, and right now is a good time to be patient and see how the situation will develop in the future.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, only a confident breakthrough and fixing above the resistance of 1.1400, which I personally doubt very much, will allow us to expect new highs in the area of 1.1430 and 1.1460 to be updated with the trading tool. A more interesting option for purchases will be a correction to support 1.1345 and 1.1315.

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EUR / USD: Euro strengthened mainly due to the weakening dollar

The statistics released today confirmed once again the absence of the momentum of the economic growth in the eurozone. However, despite this, the euro continues to strengthen, indicating that market participants are ready for further purchases of the single European currency.

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The EUR/USD pair has been rising for the third day in a row, heading for the 1.14 mark after breaking through the local resistance level of 1.1370.

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According to the latest report of the European Commission, the composite index of business and consumer confidence in the eurozone economy fell to 106.1 points in February of this year from 106.3 points revised in January. The indicator value has become the lowest since November 2016. Experts anticipated a decline to 106 points from the previously announced value of 106.2 points.

So far, the euro has managed to ignore this statistic, which is primarily due to the almost universal weakening of the greenback.

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It is assumed that the EUR / USD pair can break through the level of 1.14 in the short term if the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will be held today in the US Congress. This will again put pressure on the US currency.

At the same time, the euro looks vulnerable to alarming economic signals that limit the investment attractiveness on a wider horizon. This will again put pressure on the US currency.

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GBP / USD. February 27. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May makes concessions to parliament

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 146.7773

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to grow with pleasure on the rumors and market expectations about a possible postponement of the date of Brexit for a period of 2 months. It is not yet clear what exactly inspires optimism in market participants since the transfer of Brexit itself will hardly have a positive effect on the UK economy. However, traders apparently believe that the lack of a "tough" Brexit scenario at any time is a reason for investing in a pound. At the same time, the business located in the UK continues to be dissatisfied due to the fact that there is still no agreement with the EU, therefore, it is not clear what to expect in the future. Uncertainty does not like anyone. Some large companies have already indicated their desire to move production facilities outside the country. Needless to say that this is a serious economic loss for Albion? In the course of her yesterday's speech in parliament, Theresa May proposed to vote on March 12 to withdraw from the EU according to her plan, 13 - to exit without a "deal", and 14 - to postpone Brexit. Such a statement of the proposal suggests that the prime minister is well aware that the parliament will most likely block both the "tough" Brexit and its "divorce" plan with the EU. Therefore, most likely, Brexit will be transferred.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues the uptrend. Now remain relevant purchase orders with a view to 1.3306. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal a manual reduction of long positions.

Short positions are recommended to open in case the pair overcome the MA. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.3000.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 27. Euro has moved to the new side channel

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The unsuccessful attempt to get out of yesterday's maximum and to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3192 led to the formation of a new side channel in the pair. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions in euro after a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1374 or to rebound from the lower border of channel 1.1348, where euro sellers will also take profits. The main task is still to breakthrough and consolidate above the upper boundary of the channel in the area of 1.1403, which will lead to the renewal of new highs in the area of 1.1432 and 1.1459, where I recommend taking profits. The Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the afternoon may lead to a surge in volatility in the pair.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Today, the Eurozone data limited the growth of the euro in the first half of the day. As long as trade will be conducted below the upper limit of the side channel at 1.1403, the pressure on EUR/USD pair will continue and a breakthrough with consolidation below the middle of the channel in the region of 1.1374 will lead to an update of the minimum of 1.1348, where I recommend taking profits. In a scenario of a re-growth of the euro above the resistance of 1.1403, during the Fed chairman's speech as it was yesterday, it is best to consider new short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.1432 and 1.1459.

More in the video forecast for February 27

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains in the region of 30- and 50- moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market with the advantage of euro buyers.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Escalation of the military conflict between India and Pakistan pushes the yen and the franc higher

With the threat of a trade war, it added warning quite real. After Pakistan has shot down two Indian military aircraft, the conflict between the two countries could reach a new level. The Pakistani authorities even held a meeting of the Security Council with the participation of representatives of the nuclear forces. Financial markets reacted predictably and investors noticeably diminished their appetite for risky assets. However, safe currencies began to grow, which is usually the case in such situations. Both of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are rapidly becoming more expensive.

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Japanese and Swiss currencies tend to rise during political and economic shocks. Pakistan shot down planes the day after Indian pilots struck the terrorist bases on its territory for the first time after the war in 1971. Currently, the best choice of major currencies is yen. The franc reached a 3-week high - 0.9967 against the dollar while and the yen rose to 110.355 yen per dollar.

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The pound rose after British Prime Minister Theresa May proposed to lawmakers an option that increased the chance of avoiding a problem withdrawal from the EU. Meanwhile, the dollar was stuck near a three-week low "thanks to" the comments of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the regulator will be more "patient" in regards to the rate hike. As long as the Fed maintains a neutral position, it will be difficult for the dollar to find an additional impetus for growth.

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In addition, you should pay attention to the sterling pound, which for the first time in five months has risen above $1.33. The pound rose after British Prime Minister Theresa May proposed to lawmakers an option that increased the chance of avoiding a problem withdrawal from the EU. Meanwhile, the dollar was stuck near a three-week low "thanks to" the comments of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the regulator will be more "patient" in regards to the rate hike. As long as the Fed maintains a neutral position, it will be difficult for the dollar to find additional impetus for growth.

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February 27, 2019: Significant Demand-Zone for GBP/USD to be considered

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 (50% Fibonacci level) within the depicted H4 bearish channel.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. A quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155, 1.3240 and 1.3300.

Bullish persistence above the newly-established depicted demand-zone (1.3240-1.3155) is a MUST so that the current bullish movement can pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3240 invalidates the short-term bullish scenario allowing a quick bearish movement to occur towards 1.3150.

Trade Recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.3240 for a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.3190. T/P levels to be located around 1.3290, 1.1330 and 1.3360.

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EUR / USD Technical Analysis Recommendations on February 27

EUR / USD pair

Today's economic calendar contains statistics with an average and low degree of importance. For today's more important events, we can only note on the speech of the Fed Chairman at 15:00 London time.

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Yesterday, the players on the rise still managed to get out of the consolidation zone and tested the resistance levels of 1.1374 - 1.1402 (daily Kijun + daily Senkou Span B + weekly Tenkan). Today, the result will be formed based on the outcome of the activity. Overcoming the levels will open the way to new upward goals, which in this case, the following resistance is now located in the area of 1.1441-47 (daily Senkou Span A + weekly Fib Kijun + monthly Kijun). Formation of a rebound in this place will return the pair to support the daily cross of 1.1341-19 (daytime Fib Kijun + Tenkan).

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After the update of the maximum and testing of resistance, the rise was replaced by a corrective decline. To date, the depth of the correction as led the pair to the first important support of 1.1379, which was the central Pivot day level. The players on the rise is now a good reason to complete the decline. Thus, they will preserve the chances for a quick and active continuation of the rise. The breakdown of support at 1.1379 the technical indicators on H1 support the development of correction in the current situation, allowing players to go down to the next important level of 1.1351, which was the weekly long-term trend. A fixation below 1.1351 can significantly change the current balance of forces and form a rebound from the encountered resistances at higher time, led by the weekly Tenkan at 1.1402).

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There are no new divergences. It may be noted that yesterday the pair completed the first target of the divergence of February 18 on stochastics. The next guideline is now the maximum extremum of 1.1514.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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Bitcoin analysis for February 27, 2019

The 4-day balance is active on the BTC. Key support remains at the price of $3.678.

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Strong bearish outside bar in the background can represent the beginning of the new downward trend. It is normal that after the big down day BTC trade sideways because the market needs to rest before the new momentum. Major resistance is set at the price of $4.172.

Trading recommendation:

We are neutral on the BTC but we will sell if we see breakout of support at $3.678 with a target at $3.524 and stop at $3.855.

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AUD/USD analysis for February 27, 2019

AUD/USD did a fake breakout of the short-term resistance at the price of 0.7182. Seems like sellers took control from buyers.

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We found bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which did set the current downward tone. There is also the down breakout of the 12h balance, which is another sign of the weakness. Support is seen at the price of 0.7142-0.7072 and the resistance at 0.7200.

Trading recommendation:

Aggressive entry: You can sell AUD/USD from 0.7170 with targets at 0.7142 and 0.7073. Protective stop can be placed above 0.7200.

Conservative entry:

You can wait for breakout of 0.7142 to confirm further downside and then put target at 0.7072 and protective stop at 0.7200.

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Difficult choice of Fed

Speaking at the Senate Banking Committee, the head of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, said that the situation with the growth of public debt is unsustainable by definition and that the government will have to find ways to stabilize the ratio of government debt to economic growth.

Powell was also forced to admit that the United States should spend more and more on servicing the debt and the direct question of the probable bankruptcy of the social security system was forced to avoid a direct answer. In fact, the most obvious way to stabilize debt is to reduce costs, the lion's share of which consists of social programs.

He expressed his opinion, which, perhaps, coincides with the consensus opinion of the FOMC members to take a wait-and-see position on monetary policy. Inflationary pressure is moderate and allows for a pause as the labor market remains strong.

Actually, the markets do not expect the Fed to continue the policy tightening with more questions because of the program to reduce the balance. The Fed has completed the practice of reinvesting in US government securities but it does not have to violate financial sustainability.

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During the years of the QE, the Fed's obligations did not grow at all due to the creation of new money which was influenced by the higher excess reserves of commercial banks. This happened when the Fed began to pay commercial banks for keeping their reserves in its accounts since 2008. As a result, according to the schedule of liabilities, it is clearly seen that the growth of money in circulation was insignificant and increased along with the growth of the economy, as well as the lion's share of the growth of assets due to which securities were redeemed in the course of three waves of quantitative expansion. It fell on the funds of commercial banks, which went from the interbank lending market available to the Fed.

At the same time as the key rate increased by 0.25% since the start of the Fed normalization policy, it also increased the rate of excess reserves but only by 0.2% at each step. Thus, the gap between the rate of excess reserves and the yield of traditional instruments reduces. In January, this spread was eliminated, that is commercial banks no longer have any financial interest to continue to hold funds on the Fed's correspondent accounts. Accordingly, the Fed has all the opportunities to continue to reduce the balance not touching its own assets but only freeing up the excess funds of the commercial banks. In turn, Combanks can buy US public debt directly when it moves along the path laid down by the Banks of Japan in 2014.

Recall that the giant national debt of Japan is almost entirely concentrated within the country, government bonds are redeemed by the banking system without any hope of ever getting rid of their presence on its balance sheet. In fact, the banking system of Japan directly finances the country's budget and without this mechanism, Japan would have passed through a default long ago. Apparently, the US is moving in the same direction.

These factors directly or indirectly indicate the likely stage of a weakening dollar, which will be reflected in the stabilization of oil prices above $70 per barrel, as well as the rise in the price of gold and the yen, which the Bank of Japan is seriously preparing.

EUR / USD pair

In the eurozone today, indicators of consumer and business confidence for February will be published, the markets will look for the answer to the question of whether European economies have begun the recovery.

The dollar weakness supports the euro and the euro is expected to return above 1.14. There are no reasons to wait for a reversal amid a definitely bullish the short-term impulse.

GBP / USD pair

Theresa May made another attempt to convince the Parliament of Great Britain to accept her plan for Brexit. If the project is rejected, a second vote is scheduled for March 12. On the next day, there will be another vote on March 13 with the possibility of leaving the EU without a deal at all. If it is successful, there will be the last vote on March 14 on the possibility to request a postponement until June.

The pound has responded positively to May's new initiatives and remains the favorite to pair with the dollar. There was an update of the January maximum of 1.3210. The assault of resistance is expected at 1.3295 with the growth potential in the medium term up to 1.37.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for February 27, 2019

Gold continues to trade sideways at the price of $1.328.00. The 4-day balance is present.

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Gold price got rejected at the upper Keltner band (resistance) and pulled back towards $1.327.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The 4-day balance is present with the support at $1.320.70 and resistance at $1.341.00. More weakness is detected because of the active bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator. Breaking below the support at $1.320.70 would confirm a further downward movement and potential test of $1.302.15

Trading recommendation: We are neutral about Gold but we are looking for selling opportunities if we see a breakout of support ($1.320.70) with the target at $1.302.15. Protective stop will be placed at $1.334.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 27, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 27, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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EUR / USD. February 27. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Jerome Powell did not surprise the markets

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 127.3574

The currency pair EUR / USD on Wednesday, February 27, made a movement upwards, after which it could begin a downward correction. Evening performance of Jerome Powell in Congress can be called neutral. At least, he did not report anything of great importance and interest. Powell noted that he considers the prospects for the economy favorable, but he admits that over the past few months, the Fed has faced a number of "contradictory trends and signals." Since inflationary pressure remains restrained, all previous Fed measures are fully consistent with the "patient approach to changing the key rate." Also, the Fed chief focused the attention of Congress on several unresolved issues, which only add uncertainty to monetary policy, namely Brexit and trade negotiations. Powell also said that the consequences of the recent "shutdown" will be moderate, and the Fed managed to unload its balance sheet by about $ 500 billion. Today will be Powell's second congressional speech, as well as the publication of reports on durable goods orders in the United States. Thus, today traders will have something to turn their attention to. In technical terms, we now expect a correction to move, and the upward trend, though weak, remains on the instrument.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair may begin to be adjusted, as the Heikin Ashi indicator is warning now. Thus, it will be possible to open long positions after turning this indicator to the top with the target of 1.1414.

Short positions can be considered after fixing the price below the moving average. In this case, there is a possibility for the instrument to change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on February 27. The pair prepare for the fall again

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart consolidated above the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358, which allows traders to expect the pair to continue to grow in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446. Overlapping divergences on February 27 are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of the American currency and resuming the fall in the direction of 1.1269.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair continues the process of weak growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. On the current chart, a bearish divergence is on the CCI indicator: the last peak of the indicator has already exceeded the previous one, which does not coincide with the peaks of quotations. Bearish divergence can work in favor of the US dollar and return the pair to the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing quotes under this level will increase the likelihood of a fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out now with the goal of 1.1446, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.1358 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 23.6%, but cautiously, as the bearish divergence is brewing on the 24-hour chart.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.1269, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358, if the pair closes below the Fibo level of 23.6%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD on February 27. The bearish divergence predicts the pound rolling back down

4h

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The pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart completed growth to the correction level of 100.0% - 1.3300. Today, a bearish divergence has formed at the CCI indicator. This divergence allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight decline towards the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.3094. Fixing the pair above the level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing growth of quotations in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.3530 and will cancel the divergence.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair completed above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.3217. Thus, today, growth can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.3337. However, in favor of the US dollar, divergence on the 4-hour chart may work. The close of the pair under the correction level of 100.0% confirms the turn in favor of the American currency and allows counting on a slight drop in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.3111.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from January 25, 2019, and February 14, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be made with the target at 1.3530 and a Stop Loss order below the 100.0% level if the pair closes above the 1.300 level (4-hour chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with the target at 1.3111 and a Stop Loss order above the 100.0% level if the pair closes below the 1.3217 level (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will the dollar continue to fall?

The speech of Fed Chairman J. Powell in the Senate confirmed the January decision of the American regulator to stop the process of raising interest rates and reducing the bank's balance sheet. Also, it was revealed that the bank's management team was divided into some who believe that the cycle of raising interest rates and reducing the balance should end and for others who are of the opinion that it is possible to raise rates even further, if the growth of the economy, although in slow motion, continues, the labor market will feel strong and inflation will be kept in the area of 2.0%.

As we have previously pointed out, a sharp drop in the US stock market at the end of last year provoked the Fed to "soft" in dealing with the prospects for further progress towards normalization of monetary policy. Once again, it is precisely the fear that the local financial market will lose attractiveness primarily to foreign investors, in our opinion, and has caused the change in the rhetoric of the regulator and his manager personally. It seems that the Central Bank has become agitated, but at the very top of the political pyramid, that the further process of raising borrowing costs and reducing liquidity in the financial system will put strong pressure on the demand for US securities and will contribute to the growth of the US dollar. All this deterioration will occur against the background of the still unresolved US-Chinese trade conflict.

What about the dollar? How can it behave in these conditions and what are its global perspectives?

In our opinion, one should not expect its strongest fall, which is possible only in case of a positive resolution of the Brexit problem in relation to the pair GBPUSD and EURUSD. It is not so simple. The slowdown of the global economy, the risks of preserving the trade conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China, will force the other largest central banks to avoid the desire to raise interest rates. We, of course, mean economically developed countries. On this wave, the currencies opposing the dollar will have no reason to grow. Most likely, on this background, the overall lateral dynamics that has already taken shape in the foreign exchange market in the past few months will remain.

As for the prospects of sterling, the real risk of leaving Britain out of the EU without a deal will collapse it, but for now, amid expectations of a likely new referendum, it can pull up against major currencies, including the dollar. We believe that this phenomenon in the current situation will be temporary.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is trading above 1.1370 on the wave of a global weakness of the US dollar. Fixing the pair above this mark will help its growth to 1.1430.

The GBPUSD is trading above 1.3200 on the back of the postponement of the Brexit decision in the British Parliament and the weakness of the dollar. The pair may be adjusted downward to the level of 1.3200, but if it stays above it, there is a possibility of continuing its increase to 1.3300.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (February 27)

The Euro / Dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed low volatility of 57 points. However, this is true enough to pay the previously set forecast. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have the long-awaited breakdown of the accumulation of 1.1320 / 1.1370, which kept us almost a week. The expected impulse, after the breakdown of the border 1.1370, was fixed on the market, and traders managed to ride it, reaching the predicted value of 1.1400. Of course, the breakdown of the cluster was contributed to the information and news background. Yesterday, everyone was waiting for the speech of British Prime Minister Theresa May, where she informed the deputies of the House of Commons about the results of recent talks with the European Union. But what is more interesting is that speculators were waiting for one thing - the news about a possible delay, as a result: "If the House of Commons refuse to approve an agreement with the EU, then they will also refuse to approve withdrawal from the European Union without a deal on March 29; therefore, on March 14, the government will ask deputies to vote for the postponement of Brexit under the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty. And if the chamber votes for a postponement, it will be necessary to bring the corresponding legislative base under this, "said Teresa May.

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As expected, the news triggered volatility. The pound flew more than 150 points, followed by its euro / dollar counterpart. Of course, we understand that the Europe will listen to such statements, as shown on the trading schedule. However, the EU still needs solid steps, and not words. In accordance, the volatility of yesterday was moderate.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we have data on industrial orders (m / m, Dec.) In the United States, growth is expected to reach 1.5%, as well as data on pending sales in the real estate market (m / m, Dec.) is expected to have an increase of 0.8%.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that a stagnation-rollback appeared after the impulse move, which is quite normal for the market. The quotation reached the predicted level of 1.1400, coupled with Fibo 50, but we have to wait whether the growth will continue - to say that pack early. Rollback seems more realistic. Let's probably assume that the bumpy 1.1370 / 1.1400, where traders are sitting on the fence ***, already monitors new boundaries.

analytics5c764340b3627.png

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider to buy positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.1400 with the prospect of a move to 1.1440.

- We consider selling positions in case of price fixing lower than 1.1370 with the prospect of a move towards 1.1320.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector , we see that in the short, there is an upward interest against the background of the recent jump in the intraday and medium term. In case of stagnation or rollback, it should be understood that there might be a quick change on the smaller TF.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(February 27, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 22 points. In case of stagnation or rollback, the volatility will be concentrated within the daily average of 50 - 68 points.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1340 *; 1,1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** We sit on the fence - slang expression, we are out of the market

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for February 27

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 1.1406 and the level of 1.1360 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, there is a high probability of going into correction from the range of 1.3286 - 1.3320. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we mainly expect the departure of the correction and the design of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the development of the downward structure from February 25 and we expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 110.38. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, subsequent targets for the top were determined from the local upward structure on February 22. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, there is a high probability of going into correction from the range of 147.08 - 147.70.

Forecast for February 27:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1455, 1.1442, 1.1423, 1.1406, 1.1376, 1.1360, 1.1333 and 1.1322. We continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of February 15. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1406 - 1.1423 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 1.1442. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1455, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1376 - 1.1360 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.1333 and the range of 1.1333 - 1.1322 is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1406 Take profit: 1.1421

Buy 1.1424 Take profit: 1.1441

Sell: 1.1374 Take profit: 1.1361

Sell: 1.1358 Take profit: 1.1335

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3264, 1.3219, 1.3153, 1.3102, 1.3063, 1.3026 and 1.2965. We continue to follow the main upward trend of February 14. At the moment, the price is near the limit values. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3286 - 1.3320, hence the probability of going into a correction is high. The breakdown of the level of 1.3320 will allow us to count on the movement towards the potential target of 1.3419, after reaching which we expect to go into a correction.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.3219 - 1.3188 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.3140 and the breakdown of which, in turn, will have to form a downward structure. The potential target is 1.3091.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3286 Take profit: 1.3320

Buy: 1.3322 Take profit: 1.3390

Sell: 1.3119 Take profit: 1.3188

Sell: 1.3186 Take profit: 1.3140

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0055, 1.0033, 1.0022, 1.0001, 0.9987, 0.9967, 0.9956 and 0.9931. The goals are still unchanged, but mainly we expect not the continuation of the main trend, but a rollback to correction and the formation of initial conditions for the top. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.0001 - 0.9987. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the level of 0.9967 and in the range of 0.9967 - 0.9956 is the consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.9931, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.0022 - 1.0033 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.0055 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 13, we expect to go into a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0022 Take profit: 1.0033

Buy: 1.0035 Take profit: 1.0050

Sell: 1.0000 Take profit: 0.9989

Sell: 0.9985 Take profit: 0.9969

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 110.92, 110.76, 110.64, 110.38, 110.24, 110.07 and 109.98. We are following the development of the downward structure of February 25. The downward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 110.38. The target is 110.24, and near this level, there is price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 110.24 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 110.07. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 109.98, after reaching which we expect consolidation and rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 110.64 - 110.76, and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The goal is 110.92 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of February 25.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the downward cycle from February 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.64 Take profit: 110.74

Buy: 110.78 Take profit: 110.90

Sell: 110.38 Take profit: 110.26

Sell: 110.23 Take profit: 110.07

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3283, 1.3261, 1.3229, 1.3216, 1.3198, 1.3169, 1.3150 and 1.3110. The price has issued a small ascending structure of February 25. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3198. In this case, the target is 1.3216, and price consolidation is near this level. The price passage of the range of 1.3216 - 1.3229 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 1.3261. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3283, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3169 - 1.3150 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to develop the downward movement. The goal is 1.3110.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of February 25 in the correction of the downward structure.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3198 Take profit: 1.3216

Buy: 1.3230 Take profit: 1.3260

Sell: 1.3167 Take profit: 1.3150

Sell: 1.3146 Take profit: 1.3110

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7280, 0.7262, 0.7231, 0.7209, 0.7167, 0.7152, 0.7130 and 0.7118. We continue to monitor the ascending structure of February 21. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7209. In this case, the target is 0.7231 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.7231 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 0.7262, the potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7280, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7167 - 0.7152 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 0.7130 and the range of 0.7130 - 0.7118 is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the rising structure of February 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7210 Take profit: 0.7230

Buy: 0.7232 Take profit: 0.7260

Sell: 0.7167 Take profit: 0.7152

Sell: 0.7150 Take profit: 0.7130

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.61, 127.26, 127.00, 126.65, 126.36, 126.10, 125.71, 125.58 and 125.33. We determined the subsequent targets for the top from the local ascending structure on February 22. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 126.10 - 126.36 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. The target is 127.00 and in the range of 127.00 - 127.26 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.61, after reaching which we expect a departure to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 125.71 - 125.58 and this range is the key support for the upward structure of February 22. Its price passage will have to form a downward trend. In this case, the first potential target is 125.33.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of February 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 126.10 Take profit: 126.34

Buy: 126.38 Take profit: 126.65

Sell: 125.58 Take profit: 125.35

Sell: Take profit:

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 148.93, 147.70, 147.08, 146.06, 145.63, 144.96 and 144.13. We continue to follow the upward trend from February 15. The movement upwards is expected after the breakdown of 147.08. The target is 147.70 and from the range of 147.08 - 147.70, there is a high probability of a reversal to the correction zone. The breakdown of the level of 147.80 will allow you to count on the movement to the potential value of 148.93, from which we expect to go down.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 146.06 - 145.63 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 144.96 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form a downward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 15.

Trading recommendations

Buy: 147.10 Take profit: 147.60

Buy: 147.80 Take profit: 148.50

Sell: 146.06 Take profit: 145.65

Sell: 145.58 Take profit: 145.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the Foreign exchange market on 02/27/2019

According to Theresa May, Brexit could be transferred until 2021 as she justified the hopes placed on her. After all, it is impossible to agree on the most pressing issue. Hence, the House of Commons will once again reject the option of a "divorce" agreement with the European Union on March 12, since there is nothing new in it and is not expected. Then, on March 13, a vote will be held on the "hard option" of resettlement from a European dormitory without an agreement. Most likely, it will end up with parliamentarians favoring a "divorce" but with an agreement. The next day, March 14, there will be a vote on the postponement of withdrawal from the European Union, after which Theresa May will be able to submit an official request to Brussels to extend the fiftieth article of the Lisbon Treaty.

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However, one should not think that the only hope in avoiding a tough Brexit has contributed to the strengthening of the pound and the single European currency. American statistics themselves gave rise to a weaker dollar, despite the fact that the number of building permits issued rose by 0.3%. After all, the number of new buildings has decreased by as much as 11.2%. Also, a speech was made by the head of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell. He spoke in Congress saying that the regulator will continue to take a cautious approach in changing the refinancing rate. Adding that the outlook for the United States economic growth rate is rather positive, the risks are associated with a slowdown in the global economy as a whole, which the head of the Federal Reserve System almost directly stated.

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Today, There are no statistics report neither in Europe nor in the UK and the speeches of British politicians are not planned. However, the rebound suggests itself, which probably because of the American statistics. In particular, orders for durable goods should increase by 0.2% and production orders by 0.5%. If the forecasts come true, then there is hope for accelerated growth in industrial production, as well as in retail sales, due to growth in orders for durable goods.

Hence, it is quite reasonable to wait for the decline of the single European currency to 1.1350. egpi6xyiwOhPq3itOiPlt5iaa3jsf9hsPbBl_Aow

Due to a more active growth of the pound in recent years, it is worth waiting for a decline to 1.3150.

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