Daily analysis of Silver for November 23, 2015

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Overview

The silver price managed to touch our first main target at 13.96, falling under continuous negative pressure provided by the EMA50, which encourages us to continue suggesting the bearish bias for the upcoming period. Breaking the mentioned level will extend the bearish wave to 13.50 followed by 13.00. The silver price pushes the critical support level at 13.96, waiting for a confirmed breakout to extend the bearish wave towards our next targets at 13.50 then 13.00. Therefore, we will keep preferring the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions if the price settles below the 14.85 level.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 23, 2015

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair reached the level of 188.79 breaching the resistance at 188.28 last week. The cross ended the week lower paring all gains. The initial bias is neutral this week with the main focus on minor support at 185.98. A breakout there will revive the case that price actions from 180.36 are merely corrective. In this case, a deeper fall would be seen to retest the level of 180.36. However, we might finally see GBP/JPY picking up upside momentum above 188.79 with the aim to test a high of 195.86. A breakout of 174.86 will confirm trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we should be cautious as strong resistance at 199.80/200.00 is expected to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.96; (P) 187.01; (R1) 187.58;

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Global macro overview for 23/11/2015

Global macro overview for 23/11/2015:

The news regarding crude oil had started a price roller coaster today when the Bloomberg agency has cited the Saudi Press Agency regarding the sudden change of oil price rhetoric. It has been said the Saudi Arabia would do "whatever it takes" for a stable oil market and that they would cooperate with the OPEC and non-OPEC members for stable prices. Of course, whether the Saudi Arabia will actually do anything, well that's a different story, but this remarks might be a first reason to end the bear market or at least to start a temporary bullish correction.

The technical picture of crude oil prices indicated a possible bullish reversal. But to confirm this scenario, the market must close above the support at the level of 40.39 and break above the level of 42.58.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 23, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair could drop lower towards 1.5350 before finding the trend-line support as depicted on the H4 chart. Please also note that the fibonacci 0.382 support is lined up there as well. Only a breakout below the trend line support and a subsequent breakout below 1.5000 would confirm that the pair is in for a larger correction. It is recommended to remain flat and wait for a reaction around the levels of 1.5350 levels. Immediate support is also seen just below 1.5300 followed by 1.5000, while resistance is seen at 1.5570 (interim).

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Watch around 1.5300.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 23, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair dropped to fresh lows on Friday, and it is looks to have reached lows around 130.50. The pair is trading around the level of 131.00 at the moment, producing a pin bar candlestick pattern on the daily chart. A potential turn around may be just near as the pair trades just below the fibonacci 0.618 support as depicted here. Immediate support is seen at 130.50 (interim) followed by 129.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 132.26 followed by 133.20 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat looking for an opportunity to enter longs.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for November 23, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has been printing fresh lows recently, but the metal may soon produce a counter-trend rally/recovery towards at least the $1,11.00 levels. The metal is seen to be trading around the $1,072.00 levels for now, looking to pull back before resuming the downfall. Immediate resistance is seen at the $1,095.00/96.00 levels, followed by $1,110.00 and higher, while support is seen at the $1,065.00 levels, followed by $1,050.00/30.00 and lower. It is recommended to remain flat for now, and let the counter trend rally materialize.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for November 23, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver has just broken below the $14.00 levels by a few cents today, touching Stop Outs. The metal maybe looking to pull back towards at least the $14.85 levels before printing fresh lows. It is quite clear that silver is looking to print lower lows, and hence selling on rallies could be a recommended trade strategy. Immediate major resistance is seen at the $16.40 levels and as long as prices stay below it, bears are expected to remain in control. The short-term resistance is seen at the $14.40 levels for now and a break above would indicate that the metal has formed an interim low around the $13.90 levels and a counter-trend rally could materialize.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 23, 2015

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Overview:

  • The key level of the EUR/USD pair has been set at the level of 1.0674 this week and now it is acting as strong resistance. As it is known, sellers are asking for a high price. Therefore, the first key level will be set at the level of 1.0674 and the second key level will be set at the 1.0587 level. The level of 1.0587 is representing the support and the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.0587 and 1.0674. Additionally, the range will be about 87 pips today. Consequently, we expect that the trend is going to call for the bearish market from the level of 1.0674 because the trend has been very clear and it has been indicating a downtrend since last week. As a result, sell at the price of 1.0674 with the first target of 1.0587. Moreover, if the trend breaks the level of 1.0587, it might resume to 1.0528 in order to test the weekly support 2. On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.0674 level, thus it will be helpful to set it at the price of 1.0710 this week.

Weekly technical analysis of EUR/USD:

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 23, 2015

The weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD pair:

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Overview:

  • The rGBP/USD pair has already found resistance at the level of 1.5225, and the weekly pivot point sets at the same level too. Hence, we expect a range between the levels of 1.5225 and 1.5115 in coming hours. Therefore, according to the previous events, the price is going to test the support level of 1.5115 in order to rebound toward the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.5225 today. Then, it should be noted that a range around 110 pips is expected. Consequently, the trend will call for a bullish market at the level of 1.5115 in the H1 time frame. Thus, above the level of 1.5115 it looks for further upside move with targets at 1.5175 and 1.5220.

Observations:

  • The level of 1.5245 will act as a double top in the H1 chart.
  • The weekly support 2 sets at 1.5044.
  • We expect volatility about 105 pips today.
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Gold analysis for November 23, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of $1,067.36. In the daily time frame, I found a supply bar in a high volume and rejection from our SMA10. Our strong support around the levels of $1,075.00-$1,080.00 became strong resistance (changing polarity) now. In the M30 time frame, I found strong supply and a downward trend. Next strong daily support is seen around the level of $1,046.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,076.00

R2: 1,077.00

R3: 1,078.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,073.20

S2: 1,072.30

S3: 1,070.85

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold since the price is testing our strong resistance level. Watch for potential selling opporutnities.

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Global macro overview for 23/11/2015

Global macro overview for 23/11/2015:

The flash PMI data on the eurozone has been released earlier this morning. The data was expected to show that the manufacturing outlook remained unchanged in November, while service sector growth was anticipated to cool slightly. It turned out, the data has beaten the market expectations with manufacturing PMI at the level of 52.8 vs. 52.2 expected and 52.2 prior and services PMI at the level of 54.6 vs. 54.2 expected and 54.1 prior. Nevertheless, the PMI data continues pointing only to moderate growth in the eurozone. It supports the view for more monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank, which is expected to announce it at the December meeting.

The EUR/USD pair bounced from the round level of 1.0600 and now it is trying to break above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0643.

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EUR/NZD analysis for November 23, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6339 in a high volume. I am waiting for larger activity and stronger price actions. The short-term trend is still neutral. The major 20-day support at the level of 1.6150 held successfully. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD before a breakout of the key support level takes place. In the the daily time frame, we can see a demand bar in a high volume. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1.6860 , Fibonacci retracement 50% at the level of 1.7080. In the M30, I found rising support (diagonal), which is a sign that we may expect a further upward movement. First strong resistance is seen at the level of 1.6570.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6322

R2: 1.6365

R3: 1.6430

Support levels:

S1: 1.6190

S2: 1.6150

S3: 1.6080

Trading recommendations : Intraday buying opportunities are preferable. Selling opportunities are preferable only if the price breaks major support at the level of 1.6150.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 23, 2015

General overview for 23/11/2015 11:25 CET

There are still two possible scenarios for this pair. Scenario one describes the main count, which is a triple-three complex corrective cycle to the upside labeled as WXYXXZ and it is a part of the triangle wave B purple. Scenario two describes an alternative count, which is an impulsive wave progression to the upside where wave (i) and (ii) had been completed and now the market is in wave (iii) stage. This means we should have see a spike up above the swing top at the level of 1.3254.

Support/Resistance:

1.3454 - Swing High

1.3443 - WR2

1.3403 - WR1

1.3369 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing buy orders from current price levels, with SL below the level of 1.3380 and TP set at the level of 1.3447.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 23, 2015

General overview for 23/11/2015 11:05 CET

A three-wave downside movement might look completed as it is a valid wave development in wave Z of the wave B blue. Nevertheless, the proportions of the fibo rates between the wave (a) and wave (c) does not support this view. It looks like one more spike down is needed to complete a possible ending diagonal pattern in wave (c). Please notice, any breakout above the level of 132.22 will invalidate the ending diagonal scenario.

Support/Resistance:

130.64 - Intraday Support

131.07 - Intraday Resistance

131.14 - Weekly Pivot

131.58 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing buy orders only if the level of 131.06 is clearly violated, with tight SL and TP set at the level of131.41.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 23, 2015

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The USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range as a bias remains bullish. Last Friday, the US stocks settled higher boosted by health-care, consumer discretionary, and technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% to 17823, the S&P 500 gained 0.4% to 2089, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.6% up to 5104. Nymex crude oil dropped 0.4% to $40.39 a barrel, and gold was 0.4% down to $1077 an ounce. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settled at 2.264%, up from 2.246% in the previous session.

The US dollar broadly gained against most of other major currencies, with the Wall Street Journal Dollar Index climbing by 0.3% to 90.31 and hovering near a 13-year high. EUR/USD declined 0.8% to $1.0643 as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated that the central bank stands ready to use all available options as early as its December 3 meeting to boost inflation in the region. The pair has entered a consolidation after reaching as high as 123 last Friday. It is currently finding support at the 50-period moving average. And the 20-period moving average remains above the 50-period one. As long as 122.85 holds as the key support, the consolidation's extent is expected to be limited. If the pair takes back the first upside target at 123.40, it should rise further towards 123.60 (a high of October 26).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.40 and the second target at 123.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.55. The pivot point is at 122.85.

Resistance levels: 123.40 123.60 124

Support levels: 122.70 122.55 122

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USDX technical analysis for November 23, 2015

The US dollar index reached a new higher high today as we expect some critical news for the dollar to come after the surprising Fed meeting that will take place today. Rates are forecasted to be raised earlier than expected. Why else would the Fed hold a surprise meeting?

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Blue line -support

The US dollar index is trading above support at 98.75 and above the Ichimoku cloud. A trend is bullish. The price is moving towards higher highs and higher lows. But we also have a bearish divergence in stochastics. The price is not approaching a higher high as the index price is doing. This should raise our alert and bulls should raise their stops to protect their positions.

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On a weekly basis, we are approaching important resistance levels that are expected to be broken after the Fed announcement of the rate hikes. Stochastic is overbought for that last four weeks and this produces a warning for bullish positions, but still we have no reversal signal. Just warning that bulls need to be very cautious. Betting against this market trend is also not preferred as the bullish trend is strong.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 23, 2015

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The USD/CHF pair is expected to continue further its upside movement. The pair is challenging the first upside target at 1.0175 while trading above the rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is supported by a rising trend line and is above its neutrality level of 50. As long as 1.0175 holds as the key support, look for a further upside with 1.0220 and 1.0250.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0220 and the second target at 1.0250. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0145 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 1.0115. The pivot point is at 1.0175.

Resistance levels: 1.0220 1.0250 1.0275

Support levels: 1.0145 1.0115 1.0075

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 23, 2015

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The NZD/USD pair is under pressure and is expected to trade in a lower range. Intraday indicators are mixed. The 20- and 50-period moving averages are flat, while the relative strength index is below its neutrality level of 50 lacking momentum and playing a resistance role. Besides, the relative strength index has broken below its 30% level. As long as 0.6570 holds as the key resistance, look for moving further downside towards 0.6460 and even 0.6430.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6460. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6430. The pivot point stands at 0.6570. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6605 and the second target at 0.6625.

Resistance levels: 0.6605 0.6625 0.6665 Support levels: 0.6460 0.6430 0.64

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Gold technical analysis for November 23, 2015

Gold price got rejected at the short-term resistance on Friday and resumed its downward trend. A longer-term trend remains bearish but I continue to support the idea that we are in an area of possible long-term trend reversal and this is not the time to be short or selling gold. Surprising results of the Fed meeting can bring the price to the area of $1,045-50 today.

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Black lines -bearish channel

Green line - support

Blue lines - price projection

Gold price is still below the Ichimoku cloud. A trend remains bearish. The price managed to break above the bearish channel last week and is now back testing it. A new lower low will probably push gold towards the green support line and the yellow shaded area between $1,050 and 1,045. I expect gold price to bounce strongly afterwards.

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Black lines - bullish wedge

In the weekly chart, g old price shows the bullish wedge in which we are currently in. We are trading below the weekly Ichimoku cloud and near the lower wedge boundaries. This is not the time to be short or to sell gold. We should wait for a confirmed reversal signal as the upside potential is very big. A break above $1,090 will be the first step of this reversal. Next important resistance levels are seen at $1,130 and at $1,190.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 23, 2015

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The GBP/JPY pair is expected to trade in a lower range as the downside prevails. The pair remains capped by its declining 20-period intraday moving average and stays on the downside. Meanwhile, the intraday relative index is badly directed. The first downside target is seen at the horizontal support and overlap at 186.20. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness towards 18.75.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 186.20. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 185.75. The pivot point stands at 187.45. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 188.15 and the second target at 188.80.

Resistance levels: 188.15 188.80 189.30

Support levels: 186.20 185.78 185.00

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 23, 2015

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Wave summary:

We have almost seen a retest of a low at 1.6124, which will ideally be broken for a final decline closer to 1.5898. Once a break below 1.6124 has been seen, all requirements to the decline from 1.911 will been fulfilled, and the the risk for an important bottom being in place will greatly rise.

To indicate a bottom being in place a break above 1.6406 will be needed, while a breakout above 1.6548 will be needed to confirm the bottom.

To indicate a bottom being in place a break above 1.6406 will be needed, while a break above 1.6548 will be needed to confirm the bottom.

We missed out a short entry at 1.6385 and will stay neutral for now. However, as the possibility of an important low being seen soon, we will place the EUR buy the order at 1.5925 and upon a breakout above 1.6406 (one order done cancels the other).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 23, 2015

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Wave summary:

We continue to watch for a bottom for a rally towards 137.07. If a diagonal count is correct, then support at 130.13 should be able to protect the downside for a rally above 132.27 and more importantly a break above the resistance at 132.76 confirming the rally towards 137.07.

Should the support at 130.13 be broken the diagonal/wedge count is invalidated and downside acceleration towards 126.05 should be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 131.25 with stop placed at 130.50. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy on a break above 132.27 and use the same stop, but expected to be raised quickly.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 23, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the Eurogroup Meeting, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI is due to be released. The US will unveil economic data on the Fed Announcement, Existing Home Sales, and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0687.

Strong Resistance:1.0680.

Original Resistance: 1.0670.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0660.

Target Inner Area: 1.0635.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0610.

Original Support: 1.0600.

Strong Support: 1.0590.

Breakout sell level: 1.0583.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 23, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release economic data, but the US will publish news on the Fed Announcement, Existing Home Sales, and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.82.

Resistance. 2: 123.58.

Resistance. 1: 123.34.

Support. 1: 123.04.

Support. 2: 122.80.

Support. 3: 122.56.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 23, 2015

EUR/USD: There was no directional movement in the EUR/USD last week as the market simply went up and down in an unreliable manner closing at 1.0645 on Friday. There is a possibility that the price would continue south and the price is expected to rise sharply. This week would witness the possibilities.

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USD/CHF: This pair trudged upwards slowly and gradually last week testing the resistance level at 1.0200 without being able to go above it. For the bullish bias to continue to hold out, the resistance level ought to be broken to the upside this week (while the price stays above it).

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument went upwards by about 150 pips last week, going briefly above the distribution territory of 1.5300 before going below it. This created a bogus bullish signal as bears came in and pushed the price back to the level it by the end of the week. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.5150 would reinforce the existing bearish outlook, while the movement above the distribution territory of 1.5400 would mean a complete end to an existing bearish outlook.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair did not make any significant directional movement last week. It just went up and down in a shallow manner though the bullish bias remains valid. This week, there is a probability that the pair can continue moving upwards owing to an anticipated loss of stamina in the yen.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross closed below the supply level of 131.00 in solidarity with an ongoing bearish outlook in the market. Although this cross would find it difficult to go upwards as long as the euro is very weak, unless the yen shows more serious weakness versus the euro. There is also a possibility that JPY pairs can still rally in November.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 23, 2015

On the H1 chart, the USDX recovered from its losses held during the last week, because the index is looking for an opportunity to break the resistance level of 99.80, and we should pay a close attention to that price zone as it could unleash the bullish force in the short and medium-term. If that happens, then we can expect a rally towards the level of 100.24. The MACD indicator is at the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.80 / 100.24

H1 chart's support levels: 99.25 / 98.82

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDI breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.80, take profit is at 100.24, and stop loss is at 99.37.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 23, 2015

The GBP/USD pair is trying to take another bearish breath on the H1 chart as the pair is performing a consolidation below the 200 SMA. The next target could be placed around the level of 1.5142, where is a key price zone for buyers in the short term. However, the cable could find strong support over there and it could produce another rebound towards the resistance level of 1.5296. The MACD indicator is seen at the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5205 / 1.5296

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5142 / 1.5100

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is seen at 1.5142, take profit is at 1.5100, and stop loss is at 1.5186.

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