Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP/USD for April 14, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level of 1.2511 (closing of yesterday's candle) the pair may break through the pullback level 61.8% - 1.2518 (red dashed line). If this attempt becomes successful, the upward movement wi likely to continue with the target of 1.2779 - the pullback level 76.4% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue its upward movement with the target at 1.2779 - a retracement level of 76.4% (red dashed line).

Unlikely scenario: from a retracement level of 61.8% - 1.2518 (red dashed line), work down, with a target of 1.2372 - a retracement level of 14.6% (blue dashed line).

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GOLD Almost To Reach Another Target!

Gold has accelerated its rally and now trading at $1,710 level, above the $1,700 - $1,703 resistance area. I've said in my latest analysis that the price is expected to increase further as the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to make damages and the global economy could step into recession. Gold remains an attractive safe-haven instrument in this risk aversion situation.

The yellow metal has managed to increase as much as $1,725.51 today, but now melting down and it could come back to test and retest the broken obstacles. The outlook is bullish and the price could approach and reach fresh new highs and new obstacles soon if it stabilizes above the $1,700 area. The USD is into a correction on the short term, so the gold increase is natural.

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Gold has resumed Thursday's rally and it has ignored the $1,700 psychological level, the weekly R1 ($1,702) level and the $1,703 former high. The RSI indicator breakout has signaled another bullish momentum.

I've said yesterday that the gold price is expected to increase towards the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork after the aggressive breakout above the inside sliding line (sl - ascending dotted line) of the ascending pitchfork.

  • TRADING TIPS

Maybe you all wonder when you could buy gold again if you are not already long? Personally, I believe that you should stay away for now and to wait for consolidation above the $1,700 - $1,703 area. We had a good opportunity after Thursday's rally, but now we have to wait for a confirmation that it will resume the upside movement on the medium to the long term.

Gold could easily increase without consolidation and could reach the next target from the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork, but you don't want to be caught by a drop if the current breakout is invalidated. However, the outlook is bullish as long as the price is traded above the inside sliding line (sl) of the ascending pitchfork.

A consolidation above the broken resistance area could signal a further increase towards the $1,800 psychological level. I believe that only a failure to stabilize above the $1,700 - $1,703 area and a drop below the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork could announce a corrective phase.

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USD/CAD testing downside confirmation, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.39455

Reason for Entry: horizontal swing low support

Take Profit :1.3742

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 1.4080

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical overlap resistance

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Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 04/14/2020

Yesterday did not differ much from Friday In terms of market activity. And this is not surprising, since Europe continued to rest, and formally, Monday was a public holiday. Although in conditions of widespread quarantine and other restrictive measures, whether it is a holiday or not, there is no difference. The vast majority of people still sit at home, even though financial markets continue to function, as before. But on holidays, the markets still do not work. And in theory, the market was supposed to win back Friday's data on inflation in the United States since the opening of the American session. However, the market behaved as if there was no sharp decline in inflation. In general, at least some activity was observed only in the single European currency, and it coincides with the receipt of information about the agreement to reduce the volume of oil production in a strange way. The negotiations themselves seemed to end on Sunday, but there was no clear specificity regarding the parameters of the agreement. There were discrepancies even on the issue of production cuts, which ranged from 10 million barrels to 19 million barrels. In other words, it was perfectly clear to everyone that many fundamentally important issues remained unresolved. Naturally, against this background, oil continued to fall in price, and the dollar went up. But by late afternoon, all questions were closed. It turns out that the largest oil exporters have agreed to reduce production by only 9.7 million barrels per day. However, this does not prevent you from continuing to call it the largest transaction in history. In addition, if it was initially assumed that the reduction in production would be effective for two years, then in the end, the deal was concluded for a period of two months. And although we talked about a much larger reduction in production volumes at first, at least some specifics were enough to give the markets a little optimism. Oil immediately began to rise in price. And with it, a single European currency. But because of the holiday in Europe, the scale of the movements was not so impressive. Surprisingly, the pound stood still in contrast to the single European currency and only began to grow in the evening following the single European currency.

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At the same time, the market did not react at all to the situation with coronavirus in the United States, where there has been a steady decline in new cases of coronavirus infection for more than a day. But this situation has already led to the discussion that the quarantine may be lifted earlier than planned. And it's kind of an incredibly positive situation. However, it is too early to rush to conclusions, since exactly the same situation began in Europe with new cases of coronavirus infection, but no one is going to cancel any restrictive measures. And the thing is that the situation remains critical after passing the peak and a certain reduction in the number of new infections. The number of new cases of infection does not continue to decline and does not tend to zero. Therefore, there is no reason for crazy joy.

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However, it is precisely today that the market will most likely react sharply to reports regarding the coronavirus. Holidays in Europe are over, which means everything is assembled. But the problem is that the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. Yes, just like yesterday. Although yesterday, at least there could be at least some reaction to inflation, published on Friday. To date, this is a fully developed issue. Accordingly, market participants do not have any guidelines at all. They won't appear until tomorrow, but it will be only tomorrow. Therefore, today, market participants have no choice but to work out the information background. If there is one, of course.

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The EUR/USD currency pair continues to move horizontally, where the original accumulation framework of 1.0920/1.0950 was overcome, and a new amplitude of 1.0893/1.0967 came in its place. It can be assumed that the fluctuation in the given boundaries will remain in the market, but it will be temporary.

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The GBP/USD currency pair managed to restrain the upward mood, eventually overcoming the Friday accumulation of 1.2440/1.2485, on the basis of which the main level of 1.2500 was overcome. It can be assumed that the slow down of the market will not end there and the current day will be expressed in a variable fluctuation between the values of 1.2500/1.2580.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 14, 2020

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EUR/GBP failed to break above important resistance at 0.8866 and the following break below the former low at 0.8727 confirmed that wave 2 still is in motion. The new possible downside target is the bottom of wave iv at 0.8621 from where a new impulsive rally should be expected.

Only a direct break above 0.8736 and more importantly a clear break above resistance at 0.8765 will indicate a bottom already is in place and a new impulsive rally can begin.

R3: 0.8765

R2: 0.8745

R1: 0.8736

Pivot: 0.8702

S1: 0.8685

S2: 0.8650

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 0.8635 or upon a break above 0.8765

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Fractal analysis of Gold, Silver, and Oil on April 14

Forecast for April 14:

Analytical review in H1 scale:

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For Gold, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 1764.03, 1744.86, 1726.71, 1703.84, 1686.07, 1669.39 and 1658.61. Here, we are following the development of the local ascending structure of March 31. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1726.71. In this case, the target is 1744.86. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1764.03. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1703.84 - 1686.07. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1669.39. The range of 1669.39 - 1658.61 is a key support for the entire upward trend.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of March 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1727.00 Take profit: 1744.00

Buy: 1746.00 Take profit: 1764.00

Sell: 1703.00 Take profit: 1787.00

Sell: 1784.00 Take profit: 1670.00

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For Oil, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 34.46, 32.48, 29.64, 27.37, 25.26, 23.46, 21.90 and 19.14. Here, we are following the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the top of March 30. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 25.26. In this case, the first goal is 27.37. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the development of the main cycle. Here, the goal is 29.64. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 34.46.

On the other hand, consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 23.46 - 21.90, hence, there is a high probability of a reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 21.90 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 19.14.

The main trend is the formation of a medium-term upward structure from March 30, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 25.30 Take profit: 27.30

Buy: 27.40 Take profit: 29.60

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 21.70 Take profit: 19.75

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For Silver, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 16.40, 16.11, 15.76, 15.59, 15.31, 15.08 and 14.81. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure from April 1. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range of 15.59 - 15.76. In this case, the target is 16.11. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 16.40. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 15.31 - 15.08. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 14.81. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of April 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 15.77 Take profit: 16.10

Buy: 16.13 Take profit: 16.40

Sell: 15.31 Take profit: 15.10

Sell: 15.06 Take profit: 14.81

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 14/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

According to Deutsche Bank, the largest central banks that have recently formed a research group on CBDC, it is the state of the pandemic that can accelerate the process of issuing the first occurrences by these institutions. According to the bank, this could happen in three years.

Earlier this year, the media reported that the European Central Bank together with the central banks of Canada, Japan, England, Sweden and Switzerland formed a think tank, whose project was also joined by BIS, with the aim of publishing the first CBDC in history.

As the bank notes, Bitcoin has a limited supply, also possible cryptocurrencies of central banks will be doomed to continuous printing of money. It will certainly cause inflation, which is tantamount to the possibility of indebtedness by governments indefinitely. This phenomenon is called Modern Monetary Theory.

It is worth noting that CBDC will be based on blockchain, which should increase the transparency of money emissions. The future will show how it will actually be.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $149.53 over the weekend, but bounced higher during the early Monday morning trading hours. Despite the bounce, the bears are still in control over the market as the momentum is not increasing significantly. The key technical support remains at the level of $149.53, but is a case of a violation, the next support is seen at the level of $142.77. Any bullish attempt to rally is being used as a good chance to sell the ETH for a better price so far.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $213.33

WR2 - $193.74

WR1 - $179.45

Weekly Pivot - $159.49

WS1 - $145.21

WS2 - $125.44

WS3 - $111.55

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/14/2020 and trading recommendation

Surprisingly, yesterday's dynamics of the EUR/USD pair clearly corresponded to the receipt of information about the deal to reduce oil production. Which, by the way, has already been called the largest deal in history. At first, the lack of specifics about the parameters of this transaction coincides with the strengthening of the dollar. But at the same time, oil was also getting cheaper. And this is extremely interesting, since, in theory, the dollar should have played back Friday's inflation data, which it missed from the holidays in Europe and North America. But it behaved as if this very inflation did not exist. But as soon as certain parameters of the agreement became known, oil immediately began to rise in price, and with it the single European currency. At the same time, in fact, the volume of production is going to be reduced by 9.7 million barrels per day. Although yesterday morning representatives of oil exporting countries assured that the volume of reduction will exceed ten million barrels per day. Some claimed that the reduction would reach 12.5 million barrels per day. Moreover, it turns out that the agreement will be valid for two months. Then, if necessary, the parties can extend it. It is worth noting that the agreement was originally supposed to be valid for two years. Thus, the deal is not as large-scale as they try to present. Nevertheless, the appearance of specifics about the parameters of the deal somehow encouraged the market, and oil went up. Even if it is insignificant.

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The macroeconomic calendar is completely empty today. The only difference is that now Europe is coming out after a long weekend. However, in the conditions of essentially quarantine, the exit after the holidays is a kind of convention. Most people still stay at home, and not everyone can work remotely. At the same time, there seems to be a steady decline in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection in the United States. And this has already led to talk that the quarantine measures can be lifted faster than previously expected. Nevertheless, Europe has already passed the peak of the epidemic, but there is no question of lifting any restrictive measures. And to be honest, today they will focus only on reports about the coronavirus, since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty yesterday.

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a surge in activity, where the Friday range of 1.0920/1.0950 was locally broken both upward and downward. As a result, the quote returned to its original framework of accumulation, where the amplitude of the oscillation can expand. In fact, the emphasis is on increasing trade volumes due to the European's return to the market.

In terms of a general analysis of the trading chart, the daily period, the quote continues to move in the recovery phase from the 1.0775 level for the seventh consecutive day.

It can be assumed that the previous day's range of 1,0893/1,0967 will play the role of a variable range, where the oscillation will be looped in nature, but refers to a local phenomenon. The main trading tactic will be to work on the breakdown of the set boundaries, while at the same time, with moderate risks on the deposit it is possible to consider transactions within a variable range.

We specify all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider purchase positions higher than 1.0970, with the prospect of a move to 1.1000-1.1020.

- We consider selling positions lower than 1.0890, with the prospect of a move to 1.0850.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that due to the long horizontal course, the indicators of technical tools on the hour and day periods have become neutral.

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EUR/USD. Market has returned from the holidays: cautious optimism and decline in anti-risk sentiment

The currency market is gradually returning from suspended animation – traders have returned from the Easter holidays and are playing back the events of the previous days. Meanwhile, the decline in anti-risk sentiment turned against the US currency: the dollar index turned down and is now drifting at the base of 99 points, amid a general decline in demand for defensive assets. The dollar pairs have also changed their configuration, following the latest trends. And although price movements are not impulsive, the dollar is under certain pressure in all pairs of the "major" group. On the other hand, the financial world is blowing up or figuratively speaking, is "letting off steam" after several weeks of price turbulence and crazy excitement around the US currency.

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The EUR/USD pair cannot be ruled out. The buyers crossed the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which coincides with the Tenkan-sen line, and are now trying to break through the intermediate resistance level of 1.0950. The main (nearest) resistance level is higher - at around the level of 1.1050 - this is the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart, and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator is on the weekly. However, in order to approach the indicated price target, the EUR/USD bulls must enter the 10th figure first, and for this to happen, certain efforts and the corresponding news background are also required.

Here, it can be noted that the euro/dollar pair completed the last trading week on a major note – the Eurogroup members agreed on a package of anti-crisis measures by 540 billion euros, and OPEC + club members tentatively agreed on a reduction in oil production. Nevertheless, traders left for the weekend with disappointment, since there was a certain understatement in each case. In particular, the finance ministers of the EU countries rejected the idea of Italians (and the French and Spaniards who joined them) to issue so-called "corona bonds". The Germans were able to insist on their own, and enlisting the support of the leaders of Austria and the Netherlands, Finland and Estonia they said a categorical "no" to the proposal to release the corona bond.

Actually, that's why the euro/dollar pair didn't increase: the leaders of the EU countries should approve the plan for helping the eurozone economy at the repeated online summit (the date has not yet been determined), so it's too early to put an end to this. In view of such circumstances, traders express cautious optimism, but are not in a rush to open large positions in favor of the euro.

As for the oil market, the situation was also incomplete at the time of the end of Friday's trading. The Minister of Energy of Mexico left the OPEC + meeting as a protest, after which the agreements reached were in jeopardy. Only thanks to the mediation of Trump, the Mexicans managed to persuade to join the agreement, and on "favorable" terms, it would be necessary to reduce production by only 100 thousand barrels per day, while the initial requirements were much higher - 400 thousand barrels per day. Washington was able to solve this problem by promising to take over the 300,000 barrels of cuts per day due to Mexico. OPEC + members agreed on the final deal only on Sunday.

Thus, the fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair is not unambiguous. On the one hand, there is a general decline in anti-risk sentiment in the currency market, due to the equalization of the situation in the black gold market. On the other hand, a slow burn conflict over the introduction of corona bonds could flare up again at the repeated online summit of EU leaders, and this fact puts background pressure on the euro. This means that the growth of the EUR/USD pair depends only on the degree of vulnerability of the US currency, which in turn, responds to the news flow regarding the spread of coronavirus in the world.

In addition, the situation here does not look unambiguous. In some countries, doctors fix the so-called "plateau" (when the epidemic reaches its peak level). There is a positive situation in some states, however, in a number of countries - primarily in the USA, coronavirus continues to strike hard.

For example, the number of victims of the epidemic in Italy on Monday was one of the lowest in recent weeks; the number of people admitted to hospitals in general and to intensive care is steadily decreasing. Although in terms of the total number of deaths, this country is ahead of all other EU countries (more than 20 thousand deaths). Nevertheless, the Italians went to a slight relaxation of the strict restrictions - in particular, there will open shops selling office supplies or goods for babies. The French also report a slight decrease, a small daily decrease in the number of patients in intensive care is recorded for the fifth day in a row. But the situation remains difficult, so yesterday, Emmanuel Macron extended the quarantine until May 11. But in Spain, the quarantine regime was decided to weaken a little. In this country, the lowest daily increase in the number of people infected has been recorded in three weeks. The Spanish authorities gave permission to resume work at some industrial enterprises and construction sites.

The worst situation remains in the United States, which continues to be the world leader in the distribution of Covid-19 - there are now 585,155 confirmed cases. But, despite such impressive figures, Donald Trump expressed a certain optimism in his last televised address. According to him, there were no jumps in infection throughout the country during the weekend - hospitalizations are slowing down in hot spots such as New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Louisiana. This suggests that quarantine measures are working, and according to the head of the White House, the United States is following a better scenario than previously predicted. Such optimism also contributed to a decrease in anti-risk sentiment in the currency market.

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Thus, the market must form its attitude today towards the American currency: either traders, amid the spread of Covid-19, will panic again and begin to buy up the dollar, or will show an additional interest in risky assets, thereby supporting the EUR/USD pair. As a result, it is advisable to open long positions for the pair when consolidating above the level of 1.0950. In this case, purchases can be considered with the main upward target of 1.1050 - this is the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart, and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator is on the weekly.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 14/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

A team of researchers from the University of Cape Town in South Africa is developing a blockchain-based application to allow users to verify their COVID-19 status. The Covi-ID platform is under testing, but it will ultimately be the solution to coronavirus pandemic issues. Its premiere is scheduled for April 21.

Covi-ID is intended to control infected patients. The application is also intended to reward users for correct behavior during quarantine or when using other pandemic restrictions, such as staying at home. Covi-ID is built on the blockchain-based Sovrin platform.

The African project is not the first of its kind in the world. Earlier, similar platforms to track users during pandemics were introduced by China and Singapore, while similar applications are also being developed in Europe. However, Covi-ID will differ in approach to privacy, using SSI and blockchain technology.

Potential users have two ways to create a Covi-ID account. The first option is the deposit portfolio provided by one of the commercial partner companies, including local South African banks as well as government and health institutions. The second option is completely independent confirmation of identity, developed by Covi-ID, which will store all user data on the phone. Both solutions are to be safe for them.

However, social conditions in Africa should be taken into account. A large proportion of residents do not have access to a smartphone, which means that such users can create a trust account with one of the app's trading partners. Users' data will be stored by partners in fiduciary wallets, in a way that crypto exchanges store user's currency resources.

If application users start to have coronavirus symptoms, they can go to a test center or a doctor. After confirming the test results, this information will be registered on your Covi-ID account. When he recovers from COVID-19 or receives a vaccine, he will be informed by the application by means of a green status that he is not a threat to himself or others.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has hit the level of $6,514 during the last wave down, but has managed to retrace 50% of the move down already. Bitcoin is trading around the level of $6,800 currently, but the market conditions do not favor the bulls. The technical resistance zone located between the levels of $6,795 - $6,908 is now the key short-term zone for both bulls and bears, so only a clear breakout of one of the levels will give the market participants the direction. The larger time frame trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,127

WR2 - $7,746

WR1 - $7,416

Weekly Pivot - $7,017

WS1 - $6,690

WS2 - $6,300

WS3 - $5,960

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 14/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken above the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2516 and made a fresh new high at the level of 1.2569. This last wave up has been made despite the overbought market conditions, but on strong and positive momentum, so as long as the short-term trend line provides the support, the bulls are still in control of the market. The next target for the bulls is seen at the level of 1.2580 and 1.2747 (key long-term technical resistance).

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2914

WR2 - 1.2699

WR1 - 1.2595

Weekly Pivot - 1.2369

WS1 - 1.2287

WS2 - 1.2048

WS3 - 1.1960

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 14, 2020

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Low volatility over the Easter holidays has extended the corrective rally from 123.99 through resistance at 134.70, which did open a window for a move closer to 135.41 (already tested) and maybe even closer to 137.15 before the correction finally peaks and wave v to below 123.99 is initiated.

Only a direct break below minor support at 134.35 and more importantly a break below support at 133.67 will confirm wave iv being complete and wave v unfolding.

R3: 137.15

R2: 136.39

R1: 135.41

Pivot: 134.35

S1: 133.67

S2: 132.97

S3: 132.41

Trading recommendation:

We will sell GBP at 136.95 or upon a break below 134.35

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 14/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.0958 but failed to rally higher after a Pin Bar candlestick pattern has been made at the top of the move. However, no new local low was made yet and the strong and positive momentum might help the bulls to push the rate towards the retracement level again. Please notice, there is another Fibonacci retracement left to test: 61% located at the level of 1.1002.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1207

WR2 - 1.1072

WR1 - 1.1024

Weekly Pivot - 1.0897

WS1 - 1.0839

WS2 - 1.0706

WS3 - 1.0650

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 14. COT reports indicate clear lack of willingness to trade the pound. Bulls

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The lack of any news on the UK economy and Donald Trump's statement continues to push the British pound, which may soon lead to a test of new monthly highs. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for April 7 showed that there is a lack of desire of traders to go to the current market and take any actions with the pound, which is visible on the chart. A decrease in both long and short positions was noted. According to the data, a short non-profit position decreased from 32,156 to 27,561 during the reporting week, while long non-profit positions also fell from 37,149 to 31,254. As a result, the non-profit net position also fell from 4,993 to 3 693, gradually returning to its zero value, which could be a turning point for the upward correction of the pound in the short term. Given that important fundamental data for the British pound are not expected today, volatility is likely to continue to decline, returning the pound to its normal state. The bulls have already managed to break above the rather large resistance 1.2484 and are now targeting a high of 1.2605, the test of which will keep the upside potential in pair, which will open a direct road to the 1.2686 area, where I advise taking profit. In case GBP/USD declines in the morning, it is best to return to long positions only on a false breakout of support 1.2501, or buy the pound immediately to rebound from a low of 1.2402.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers should try to return the market under their control, and this will be possible only after consolidating below support 1.2501. A breakthrough of this area, slightly below which the moving averages also pass, will certainly raise the pressure on the pound, which will push it to a low of 1.2402, and quite possibly, to the larger area of 1.2294, where I recommend taking profit. It is worth noting that the bears will not rush to enter the market at current levels, and will wait until updating resistance at 1.2605, where a false breakout will be the first signal to open short positions in a pair. I recommend selling GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only after a test of a high of 1.2686 calculated per rebound of 40-50 points within a day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates that the upward trend will continue for the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2470.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 14. COT reports. Euro buyers continue to believe in growth. Bulls aim for

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Statements by US President Donald Trump about the likely removal of quarantine and the resumption of the country's work helped strengthen the European currency, and also made it possible for buyers to protect a fairly important support level in the area of 1.0897, which was an important focus. The 5-minute chart clearly shows the purchases that I advised you to make from this level in yesterday's review. Another strong growth of long positions was recorded in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for April 7, on the euro's fall. Sellers did not stand aside, since there was also a small increase in short positions. However, the growth of the positive delta continued, which indicates a high probability of recovery in demand for the euro in the future. Short non-commercial positions increased from 80,800 to 81,561, while long non-commercial positions jumped from 155,070 to 161,185. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position continued to increase its value to 79,624, which indicates a clear interest in purchasing risky assets at attractive crisis prices. As for the intraday strategy, after the euro moved inside the side channel yesterday, the situation has not changed much. At the moment, an important task for euro buyers is to protect the support of 1.0897, where a false breakout will be a signal to open long positions in the expectation of continuing growth around the new highs of 1.0969 and 1.1033, where there could be problems with the breakout. A consolidation above the 1.0969 level, which was not possible yesterday, will open a direct path to the area of 1.139, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro sharply falls under the level of 1.0897 today, amid the absence of important fundamental statistics, long positions can be returned immediately on the rebound from the low of 1.0834.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

As yesterday, the primary task of the euro sellers is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.0969, which will be a signal to open short positions with expectations of a decrease to the support of 1.0897, where I recommend taking profits. Important reports on the state of the economy of the eurozone and the United States are not published today, except for statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve, so the lack of demand for the euro in the area of 1.0897 may lead to a larger decrease in the pair to the low of 1.0834, where I recommend taking profits. If there are no active sales at 1.0969 in the first half of the day, it is best to postpone short positions until a high of 1.1033 has been tested, where we can expect a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the preservation of the upward potential in euros.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.0897 will lead to a decrease in the euro. A breakthrough of the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.0946 may lead to a larger growth of the European currency.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.09679

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.08445

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.10368

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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EUR/GBP IPDA 60 days range for April 2020

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On the 4 hour chart, we see that the EUR/GBP pair is now moving to the 0.8578 discount array area as its prime target. As long as this pair does not retrace and break out above the 0.8786 level, the pair is highky likely to drop. The overall bias for EUR/GBP is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 14. When and how will trade negotiations between the UK and the EU end?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 116.3347

The British pound continued its upward movement throughout the first trading day of the week. At the moment, the Murray level of "5/8"-1.2512 has been overcome and there is no sign of the beginning of a correction. Thus, after a very small correction, the upward trend is resumed. For the euro/dollar pair, if both channels of linear regression turned sideways, then here the higher channel is confidently directed down, and the lower channel is up, which indicates any movement other than sideways. Although a few days ago it seemed that the pair will be in the flat for some time. However, despite the absolutely empty fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds, the British pound continues to grow in value against the US currency.

Over the past three years, the UK has clearly been suffering from an evil fate. There is nothing wrong with the fact that Britain has decided to leave the European Union. The European principle of democracy fully supports such decisions. The British nation chose to be independent of the EU in a completely fair referendum, although with a minimal margin. This happened in 2016. We understand that such serious foreign policy processes, with the breaking of a lot of established ties, agreements, chains, and rules, can not be completed in a couple of months. Even the trade talks between China and the United States, which were instigated by Washington out of the blue, lasted more than a year, and this is only the first phase. However, in fact, all this time the UK is prevented from leaving the EU not by the complexity of the process itself, but by some absolutely punning things. After almost three years, the highest British authorities could not simply decide on what terms to break off relations with the European Union. More precisely, there were many proposals, but none of them gained the necessary majority. And then there were regular perturbations in the British Parliament. First, David Cameron, who was in favor of maintaining EU membership, resigned, then Theresa May, who simply failed to reach an agreement with the Parliament, resigned. Then it was Boris Johnson's turn to suffer because he also did not agree with the majority of parliamentarians. His plan for a "divorce" from Brussels, according to opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, was even worse than Theresa May's "Chequers" plan. However, Johnson made a "horse move" and initiated parliamentary re-elections. And Jeremy Corbyn thought that he could win over Johnson and supported this idea. However, he overlooked that the British are already so tired of this "divorce" process that they were ready to vote for anyone, just to guarantee the fastest possible completion of Brexit or its cancellation. Johnson proposed the first option, Corbyn did not offer anything. It all ended in a crushing defeat for the Laborites, and Johnson was on the throne. Not because he is a strong politician and the British associated his name with the prosperity of the Kingdom, but because he is the only one who clearly promoted Brexit without any delays and concessions. The new Parliament, of course, approved Johnson's proposal for Brexit (of course, he could not approve it, if earlier Johnson simply kicked out from the Conservative party all those who refused to support his initiatives) and the next act of the "Marlaison ballet" came. Then, when, apparently, nothing could stop Britain from leaving the Alliance, at first negotiations about future relations between the parties almost immediately reached an impasse, and then the "coronavirus" epidemic started, which put a non-indefinite pause on any negotiations between London and Brussels. And now we still do not know when Brexit will take place, whether the "transition period" will continue, which will expire on December 31, 2020, and what will the future hold for Britain in general? European deputies have been in favor of extending the "transition period" from the very beginning, as it is impossible to agree on all aspects of the future agreement in 10 months. In fact, there are already 8 months left to agree on the same agreement. And with each month of the epidemic, there is less time to make a deal. Most importantly, London and Brussels must decide whether to extend the "transition period" until July 1. And such a decision can only be made based on the results of the first rounds of negotiations between the groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost, which were supposed to take place every two weeks. Since there have not been any real negotiations yet, it is not clear what the decision will be based on. For example, the Czech politician Katerina Konecna believes: "The goal to complete the negotiations before the end of the transition period was initially too ambitious. This deadline was set by the British conservatives in their dreams, and it has nothing to do with reality." Her speech does not even refer to July 1, but to December 31. Many European parliamentarians are of the same opinion. However, even with the global pandemic, Boris Johnson continues to stand his ground: no postponements or delays. Even the fact that the heads of the negotiating teams, Michel Barnier and David Frost, and later himself, fell ill with the "coronavirus" does not affect Johnson's plan in any way. And this plan is now called very simply. Just as Johnson originally intended – a "hard" Brexit. That is what the British Parliament fought against for three years. And of course, how can I not remember the position of Boris Johnson personally again? "Britain is trying to get as many benefits as possible from the European single market, imposing as few responsibilities as possible," Katerina Konecna believes. The task of the European Union is to make sure that the UK does not enjoy the same rights and privileges as the countries participating in the Bloc.

From all of the above, it only follows that the entire negotiation process may drag on for several more years if Boris Johnson looks the truth in the face and stops driving the British locomotive towards the abyss. Of course, the British Prime Minister's bluff and threats may work, but there is very little time for any negotiations, until July 1 - no more than 2.5 months. Recall that Johnson will return to the performance of his duties on the recommendations of doctors no earlier than in a month.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair continues to decline and is currently already 122 points. The activity of traders continues to fall and this can not but please. On Tuesday, April 14, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2407 and 1.2651. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a round of corrective movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2451

S2 - 1.2390

S3 - 1.2329

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2512

R2 - 1.2573

R3 - 1.2634

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair continues to trade with an upward bias on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in the purchases of the pound with the goals of 1.2573 and 1.2634 until the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to open sell positions no earlier than when the bears overcome the moving average with the first goal at the level of 1.2329.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 14. The US quarantine will begin to be lifted in May. Three out of 70 vaccines have been

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 40.6631

For the second trading day of the week, the euro/dollar pair started with a downward correction, which has every chance to end near the moving average line. A price rebound from the moving average may trigger a resumption of the upward movement. We still believe that the "correction against correction" option continues to be executed and the euro currency will resume its growth to the psychological level of 1.1000. However, if traders manage to gain a foothold below the moving average, the trend will change to a downward trend and short positions will become relevant.

At a time when almost nothing is happening on the market, and the calendar of macroeconomic statistics looks like the image of the steppe from American westerns with tumbleweeds, we suggest that we once again focus all our attention on the number one topic of importance for the whole world - "coronavirus". Unfortunately, there is very little positive news on this topic. For example, in the United States, the COVID-2019 virus has already killed more than 22,000 people, and the country's chief infectious disease specialist, Anthony Fauci, said that if the authorities had started quarantining earlier, many victims could have been avoided. He also said that a second wave of the epidemic is possible in the fall or winter of 2020, which threatens the country's presidential elections, since many voters simply will not want or will not be able to come to the polls. However, the elections are still far away. Andrew Cuomo, the Governor of New York state, the most affected by the pandemic, said that the number of new cases of "coronavirus" infection continues to decline, but it is too early to talk about a possible easing of quarantine measures. However, across the country, that is, in most states, the quarantine restrictions may begin to be lifted in early May. This was also reported by the director of the Institute of Infectious Diseases, Dr. Fauci. He believes that only at the end of April, when, according to experts' estimates, the "peak" of the outbreak will be passed, it will be possible to assess the situation in the country and only depending on the results it will be possible to decide on easing some of the quarantine measures. Different decisions will be made in different states of the country, but still, the economy may start to revive in the fifth month of the year – May. At the same time, Dr. Fauci warns that the risk of a new coronavirus outbreak is extremely high if the US government hurries to lift the quarantine. The chief infectious disease specialist believes that all business activities will not be able to start at the click of a toggle switch, so in any case, a gradual and careful exit from the quarantine is necessary. However, according to Fauci, people will still continue to get infected with the new virus until a vaccine is invented.

Approximately the same opinion is held by specialists of the WHO, which was recently criticized by Donald Trump, threatening to stop funding. David Nabarro, a spokesman for the WHO director for the coronavirus pandemic, said: "We are not sure that this coronavirus will pass in waves, as it does with the flu. We think that the virus will haunt humanity for quite a long time until a vaccine is invented that will protect us." Nabarro also noted that there are signs that the spread of the virus is slowing in Europe and the United States, but in other parts of the world, the COVID-2019 virus is spreading at the same rate.

At the same time, work on a vaccine against the COVID-2019 virus continues in many countries around the world. We have already discussed the developments and discoveries of Australian and Turkish scientists. Today, it became known that China is beginning to conduct clinical trials of a vaccine against coronavirus. It is reported that this vaccine will be the third in the world that has entered the testing stage. However, it is not only China or the United States that are concerned about creating a vaccine. According to WHO, the process of creating a vaccine is proceeding at a very high speed. All drug manufacturers are trying to invent a vaccine. At the moment, there are already 70 types of vaccines, three of which are being tested on humans. The most advanced vaccine is the Chinese one mentioned above, developed by CanSino Biologics Inc and the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology. It is also noted that the process of creating a vaccine is being accelerated by all pharmaceutical companies since it is already obvious that it will not be possible to defeat the virus by quarantine measures alone. It will come back again and again. Thus, the pharmaceutical industry wants to achieve unprecedented results and create a vaccine in one year. WHO, in turn, believes that the virus will return and return until all or most of humanity is vaccinated.

Meanwhile, Bill Gates, an American billionaire and philanthropist, said the coronavirus vaccine could be created in one year. However, in order to start mass production of the drug, you may need to relax the usual safety check procedures. The Bill Gates Foundation and his wife also began financing the American company Inovio to begin clinical trials of the American version of the vaccine. Bill Gates himself recalls that back in 2015 he warned of the possibility of a global epidemic. Now, according to the founder of Microsoft, humanity can greatly regret that it did not invest enough money in the healthcare sector, and especially in the fight against epidemics.

At the same time, Germany offers the most radical methods of fighting the "coronavirus". For example, German epidemiologist Alexander Kekule believes that young people and children should be taken out of quarantine and let them get infected. According to Kekule, according to the most optimistic calculations, the vaccine will appear in a period of six months to a year. Until the vaccine is available, the quarantine measures cannot be maintained, otherwise, the economy may collapse completely. Instead, the German doctor offers an option with the development of immunity in people under 50 years of age. According to Kekule, those who are less than 50 years old are unlikely to get sick or die from the "coronavirus". Older people should be protected and isolated at home. In Germany, the most common view is that in order to defeat the pandemic, it is necessary to develop a so-called collective immunity. Thus, approximately 70% of the population needs to be infected. Chinese scientists also pay attention to the fact that people discharged from hospitals form too few antibodies to speak about the formation of a stable immunity against the virus. And this symptom is considered very important by Chinese scientists. Since if the "coronavirus" itself could not cause the production of enough antibodies, then the vaccine may not achieve the desired effect.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair continues to decline and is already 87 points as of April 14. Thus, the markets continue to calm down and return to normal. Today, another decrease in volatility is possible due to an empty news calendar. We expect the price to move between the levels of 1.0836 and 1.1010 on April 14. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate the end of the downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0986

R2 - 1.1108

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a corrective movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to consider purchase orders with the goals of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 and 1.1010, after the price rebounds from the moving average. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price below the moving target of 1.0864 and 1.0836.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 22 points on Monday, rebounding from the blue line of the price channel on the daily chart. The leading indicator Marlin is in no hurry to turn around, holding on to the border with the territory of growth. This may be a sign of another small upward movement before the medium-term drop. The MACD line in the region of 1.0980 or slightly higher can be tested.

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On the four-hour chart, the price develops above the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is confidently decreasing here, but has yet to leave the growth zone, which in total does not cancel the option with the final price increase. The situation will change abruptly to a downward trend with the price moving under the MACD line at 1.0860. The 1.0615 target will open – the embedded lower line of the price channel on the daily chart.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 14, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar managed to overcome strong technical resistance and now shows the intention to grow to the price channel line at 0.6540. The price was above the MACD line (indicator blue), the balance line (indicator red), and the price channel line at 0.6395. The Marlin oscillator in a growing position.

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However, there is a sign that a reversal divergence will form on the four-hour chart, this can be realized in a price reversal from current levels, which will subsequently mean a false exit of the price over the technical lines of the daily scale.

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The aussie's continued growth converts the Marlin to standard growth without a reversal pattern. A reliable sign of establishing a medium-term downward trend will be price taking under the MACD line in the area of 0.6280 – the level to which this line is moving. If the price subsequently climbs, then this signal level will also increase. From a practical point of view, it is not advisable to open positions in either sides in this situation.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on April 14, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair lost about 70 points on Monday and entered the accumulation zone of 106.90-107.75, formed by the price channel lines on the daily scale chart. The price is currently lower than both indicator lines - the balance line and the MACD line. Overcoming the lower limit of the range will open the way to a fall to 102.50, to the lower line of the price channel. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone, which raises the chances of a bearish breakout success.

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The situation is completely downward on the H4 chart, but the Marlin oscillator line lies in the horizon at a decreasing price, which confirms the characteristic of the 106.90-107.75 range as an accumulation and uncertainty interval. There may be chaotic movements in this range. A signal to open short positions will be for the price to overcome the lower limit of the specified range.

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Hot forecasts and trading signals for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY pairs for April 14

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair fell to the critical Kijun-sen line on the hourly chart, as well as to the lower line of the ascending channel. Unable to overcome these two supports, the pair turned up and indicated a desire to resume moving up inside the channel. Thus, the channel received a third point of formation and continues to be relevant. Based on the current technical picture of intradays, we can draw the following conclusions.

1) The rebound from the lower line of the channel allows you to trade for an increase to the Senkou Span B line (4-hour chart) 1.0974. Thus, at this time, we recommend buying the euro currency.

2) Consolidating quotes under the ascending channel and the Kijun-sen line will change the current short-term trend to a downward one. In this case, we recommend selling the euro currency with the target volatility level (for the 4-hour chart on April 14) – 1.0836.

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD 13 currency pair resumed the upward movement, overcame the resistance area of 1.2471 - 1.2485, and then corrected in it, rebounded from it, which became the 6th rebound from this area and resumed its upward movement. Thus, the current intraday picture suggests the following conclusions:

1) Since yesterday we advised you to trade for an increase, if the area of 1.2471 - 1.2485 is overcome, today we recommend to continue staying in longs with the goal of the first resistance level for the 4H timeframe - 1.2567.

USD/JPY 1H

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For the dollar/yen currency pair, the technical picture is as follows. After overcoming the strong support area of 108.22 – 108.31 and the trend line, the pair can easily move towards the next support area of 107.03-107.12. Thus, the conclusion is simple and obvious:

1) We recommend staying in sales of the USD/JPY pair with the aim of supporting the area of 107.03 – 107.12.

No important macroeconomic events are planned for today.

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