Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 20/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken through the trendline around the level of 1.1250, moved higher towards the level of 1.1268 which was broken as well. At the time of writing the current high was made at the level of 1.1285 and the momentum behind the move is strong. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1323.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1376

WR1 - 1.1277

Weekly Pivot - 1.1237

WS1 - 1.1132

WS2 - 1.1096

WS3 - 1.0995

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is now up. All the local pull-backs and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the buy orders for a better price. There is a downtrend reversal sign on the weekly time-frame chart, which is why the recent move up might be the beginning of the new uptrend, but it needs confirmation and so far there is no clear confirmation yet.

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The Fed is preparing for a controlled recession. CAD and JPY will continue to grow

The Fed did not surprise the markets with the outcome of the two-day monetary policy meeting. The rate remained unchanged, but the forecasts for inflation, unemployment and GDP has slightly changed. The most significant changes according to forecasts occurred in 2020.

At the same time, the rate forecast has changed according to a not quite obvious algorithm. In May, the markets began to prepare for a one-time rate cut in the current year, and by June, expectations had shifted by two cuts or even three. This is based on the forecast for the CME futures market rate.

However, the Fed made an emphasis on 2020. The rate forecast was reduced from 2.6% to 2.1%, that is, it implies two cuts. But for 2019, the forecast is left unchanged.

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This means that the Fed is trying to prevent panic sales, because its forecast implies that there will be no recession this year. The same conclusion follows from other figures - the inflation forecast is lowered. However, by 2021, it is expected to be fixed at the target level, and the GDP and labor market forecast has been improved altogether.

But if so, then why reduce the rate? Apparently, the focus is on a smooth slowdown. It is absolutely impossible to ignore the record-breaking growth of the budget deficit, which will require emergency measures from the US government. In addition, preparations for these measures should take place against the background of a smooth slowdown, which is beneficial to all parties to the future presidential company.

Thus, it can be assumed that the outcome of the Fed meeting is more political than economic. In favor of this conclusion, the sharp rise in gold to a 14-month high, the rapid strengthening of the yen and the demand for bonds are traditional defensive assets. The dollar is expectedly weakening across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market, and this trend will only increase.

USDJPY

The Bank of Japan expectedly kept the interest rate at the level of -0.1%, targeting the yields of 10-year government bonds at the near-zero level which will also be maintained. On the other hand, decisions on the monetary base and the repurchase of assets remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan made it clear that, at least until spring 2020, it does not intend to make changes to its monetary policy, because it has to take into account both the growing uncertainties in the global economy and the need to assess the consequences of an increase in the consumption tax this fall.

Domestic demand in Japan is slowing, leading to an increase in the budget deficit. In the context of slowing demand, export growth is important. Thus, Japan is more interested in global growth than anyone else. The decline in demand from China and South-East Asia led to a marked decline in Japanese exports, which, in turn, affected the strong fall in engineering.

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The weakness of the manufacturing sector inevitably extends to domestic demand, which is clearly seen by the sharp drop in retail sales. Accordingly, there is no hope for growth in consumption at the current stage, since wage growth remains modest and real incomes of labor are declining. All of the above explains the cautious position of the Bank of Japan, which has no reason to change anything.

In the previous review, we expected a "slow decline to 107.80 followed by a breakthrough downward". The forecast was fully implemented, but a further decrease is still in question. If the stock markets hold near the highs, the yen will go to the side range with the upper limit of 107.80 / 90, but if panic is going to increase, then the movement to 106.20 / 40 with an eye on 105 will become more likely.

USDCAD

The loonie, as expected, successfully tested support for 1.3250. The movement was supported not only by the results of the FOMC meeting, but also by unexpectedly strong data on inflation in May. The annual index rose from 1.5% to 2.1%, while the expected decline to 1.2%. The result will not allow to expect that the Bank of Canada will take any incentive measures.

Canadian dollar remains in favor and aims at 1.3110 / 20.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 20/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has strongly reversed its recent move down after the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at the level of 1.1205. The price has broken above the 61% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.2661 and made a new high at the level of 1.2708 (at the time of writing). The technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.2652 - 1.2668 has been violated and the price is now back in the zone again. The momentum is strong and positive so there is a possibility of another leg up towards the technical resistance located between the levels of 1.2746 - 1.2761.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2846

WR2 - 1.2797

WR1 - 1.2673

Weekly Pivot - 1.2620

WS1 - 1.2493

WS2 - 1.2439

WS3 - 1.2301

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the main trend, which is still down. All the local bounces and corrections should be treated as another opportunity to open the sell orders for a better price. Please notice, the larger time frame trend is down and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

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Review for GBP / USD pair on June 20: The forecast for the "Regression Channels" system. The effect of the FOMC meeting outcome

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Older linear regression channel: direction - down.

Younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 103.7750

The Federal Reserve helped both the euro and the sterling pound unwittingly yesterday. The most interesting thing is that the Fed left the rate unchanged. They did not announce any easing of monetary policy in 2019 and did not notice "increasing" risks or uncertainty. That is, according to the regulator, the situation has not changed very much since the last meeting and the FOMC members did not find reasons to reduce the rate. However, from the very morning of yesterday, traders began to close "dollar" positions, which led to a loss of 120 points in the US currency at the current moment. Meanwhile, opposition leader Jeremy Corbin supported a second referendum in the UK. He told his party members that the time had come to "make a choice" for both Brexit supporters and opponents. However, in any case, the holding of a repeated referendum will depend on the Parliament. Many deputies can be against. Thus, a situation may arise as with Theresa May's "deal", which seemed to find some support among deputies but it was clearly not enough to accept its approval at the legislative level. Thus, the news is interesting but does not affect the promotion of Brexit. By the way, we recall that in the event of a UK exit from the EU, Scotland may hold its own referendum on independence since the country does not support a "divorce" from the European Union. A meeting of the Central Bank will be held in the UK today and in the evening, the speech of its head, Mark Carney. Now, the currency markets will follow the mood of the British regulator, respectively, the prospects for the pound sterling for the next few days will now depend on Karni's rhetoric.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2634

S2 - 1.2573

S3 - 1.2512

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2695

R2 - 1.2756

R3 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has overcome the moving average line, hence, the trend has now changed to ascending. However, given the weakness of the bulls, we recommend extremely cautious purchases of the pound with targets of 1.2695 and 1.2756.

Selling the pound/dollar pair will be possible no earlier than the reverse consolidation under the movement with the targets of 1.2573 and 1.2512. Today, this can contribute to the Bank of England and the rhetoric of its chairman.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The older linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Bitcoin. The breakthrough of 9,350 is very close, but further growth is limited

Despite the fact that the growth of Bitcoin above 9 350 may occur in the near future, speaking and maintaining the current bullish momentum will be quite difficult after updating the level of 10 000 USD, which is a psychological mark, and where a number of large players will definitely record profits.

Bitcoin Buy Signal (BTC):

From a technical point of view, nothing has changed in recent days. Bulls have formed a good figure on the continuation of the growth of Bitcoin, and the main goal of buyers is to break through the range of 9,350 with access to the highs: 9,540 and 9,800, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in cryptocurrency, support will be provided by the area of 8,960, while it is best to open long positions for a rebound near the minimum of 8,630.

Bitcoin Sales Signal (BTC):

I do not recommend opening short positions in Bitcoin in the current conditions, since in the near future, a new wave of growth may occur. Large resistance levels can be traced around 9,350 and 9,600, where it will be possible to monitor profit taking in long positions, which will necessarily lead to a downward correction. The task of bears is to break through and consolidate below support for 8 960, which will increase pressure on bitcoin and lead to a minimum of 8 630 and 8 190.

With a large increase in bitcoin, you can take a closer look at short positions from the level of 9,800 and 10,080.

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EURUSD: Fed will not rush to change the course of monetary policy, but will do so if necessary

Yesterday's focus shifted on the Fed's interest rate decision, as well as Jerome Powell's press conference, which took place a little later. Of course, no one expected the Fed to signal an interest rate cut already at this meeting, but traders were counting on signs of a change in policy in the near future.

According to the data, the Fed left the range of interest rates on federal funds unchanged between 2.25% and 2.50%. The Fed Open Market Operations Committee voted 9 against 1. The Fed also left the discount rate at 3.00%.

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Fed officials expect the Federal funds rate to average 2.4% at the end of 2019 and 2.1% at the end of 2020. In 2021, it is expected to return to the level of 2.4%.

The Fed noted that they would act as it is appropriate in order to support economic growth, as well as closely monitor incoming data.

Seven out of 17 Fed officials expect interest rates to be reduced by 0.5 percentage points by the end of 2019.

The main problems that are currently observed in the economy are weak investments of companies in fixed assets, as well as inflation, which remains below 2%. Fed officials also raised the unemployment rate forecast in 2019 to 3.7% from 3.6%.

During Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference, traders also did not hear statements about a change in monetary policy, although many counted on it.

Powell said that the Fed has made some significant changes to the monetary policy statement, since there were opposing factors during the weeks that have passed since the last meeting. The Fed chairman also emphasized that trade uncertainty is beginning to manifest itself in the incoming data, in connection with which some managers see increasingly weighty arguments in favor of a softer policy, and their arguments in favor of additional policy easing become stronger and stronger.

Meanwhile, Powell himself did not see significant support for the pace of interest rate cuts among Fed representatives at this meeting and believes that it would be better to initially get a clearer picture of the situation in the economy, since the basic scenario of the economic outlook is positive.

Responding to the question regarding his possible demotion by US President Donald Trump, Powell made it clear that, according to the law, his term will last for four years and he intends to serve it.

As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth will depend on whether buyers of risky assets will be able to remain above support at 1.1240, as well as consolidating on resistance at 1.1290, which opens up new prospects for bullish movement to highs at 1.1240 and 1.1400.

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Review for EUR / USD pair on June 20: The forecast for the system "Regression Channels". Jerome Powell tried his best to

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 82.8856

On Wednesday, June 19, the day ended with extremely important macroeconomic events. Firstly, it became known that the Fed's key rate remained unchanged at the level of 2.5%, as we expected. A little later, the press conference of Jerome Powell began. It should be noted right away that all of the conferences and covering letters of the Fed and its heads are similar to each other, especially in recent months. Powell said yesterday that the proposal to "cut the rate right now" did not find support among FOMC members, therefore, the Fed intends to respond to long-term trends in economic indicators and to several changes in them or changes in expectations. Moreover, it is very reasonable from our point of view. Furthermore, Powell said that the biggest source of uncertainty is the trade war with China and further development of the Fed will depend on its development. With regard to the deteriorating state of the labor market, the Fed chairman showed no concerns about this and we also believe that a one-time deterioration cannot be a basis for easing monetary policy. In general, we can conclude from Powell's speech: the economy remains at a stable level, threats of recession exist but they only loom somewhere on the horizon. The main danger is trade wars and there are no 3 rate reductions in 2019, possibly only one - and that is not a fact. Thus, we can regard the outcome of the Fed meeting even as hawkish. Unfortunately, traders began to get rid of the dollar long before the evening news, which led to the fall of the US currency by the end of the day. However, the absence of a pronounced "dovish" rhetoric from the Fed can bring the US dollar back to life in the coming days, but then the Fed chairman showed no concerns about this. We also believe that a one-time deterioration cannot be a basis for easing monetary policy. In general, we can conclude from Powell's speech: the economy remains at a stable level, threats of recession exist, but they only loom somewhere on the horizon, the main danger is trade wars, there are no 3 rate reductions in 2019, only one - and that is not a fact.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1,1200

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1261

R2 - 1,1292

R3 - 1.1322

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has started an upward movement, entrenched above the MA. Thus, cautious purchases of the euro/dollar pair are now recommended with targets at 1.1229 and 1.1322, before turning Heiken Ashi downward.

It is recommended to sell the Eurocurrency again after the traders fix the pair below the moving average line, which will change the downward trend with the first targets of 1.1200 and 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The older linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 20. Pound may continue to grow after the publication of the interest rate

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound buyers are optimistic and continue to open long positions. Today's goal in the first half of the day will be the level of 1.2688, consolidating on which, following the Bank of England's decision on interest rates, will lead the pound to new local high in the area of 1.2729 and 1.2758, where I recommend taking profits. With a downward correction scenario that has been brewing for a long time, it is best to rely on long positions in GBP/USD if a false breakdown occurs in the region of 1.2639 or on a rebound from the low of 1.2596.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Bears will be waiting for the Bank of England's report. Forming a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2688 in the first half of the day will be a good signal to open new short positions in order to fall and update the support for 1.2639, where I recommend taking profits. When the growth scenario is above the resistance of 1.2688, short positions can be returned to rebound from a high of 1.2729.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound falls, support will be provided by the average indicator border in the area of 1.2639.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 20. Euro strengthened after the Fed meeting

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro buyers are aiming for a resistance of 1.1286, where the first profit taking on long positions will be marked. However, the main task of the bulls will be a breakthrough and consolidation above this level in order to continue the upward trend in the area of a 1.1338 high. It is better to consider more interesting purchases when adjusting to the support area of 1.1245, with the condition that a false breakdown is formed there, or to rebound from a larger level of 1.1207, which was formed yesterday.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The bears will try to prevent a breakthrough of resistance at 1.1286 in the first half of the day, and the formation of a false breakout there will be the first signal to open short positions in order to adjust for an intermediate support of 1.1245, where I recommend taking profits. The main task of euro sellers will be a test of a low of 1.1207. Under the scenario of a further upward trend above the level of 1.1286, which can be continued due to the expectation of a decrease in interest rates in the US, it is best to return to short positions on a rebound from the large resistance of 1.1338.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a bull market.

Bollinger bands

In case the euro declines in the first half of the day, support will be provided by the average indicator line in the 1.1235 area.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 20,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Consumer Confidence and Spain 10-year Bond Auction will be released. The US will publish economic data too. So, amid the reports,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1289.Strong Resistance:1.1283. Original Resistance: 1.1272. Inner Sell Area: 1.1261.Target Inner Area: 1.1235. Inner Buy Area: 1.1209. Original Support: 1.1198. Strong Support: 1.1187. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1181. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD for June 20, 2019

EUR/USD

Following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, the Open Market Committee made it clear that the first rate cut could be closer to the end of the year, or even in 2020. The decision turned out to be as soft as possible, however, the markets, apparently tuned in to purchases and emotionally bought out counterdollar currencies. The euro rose by 60 points in the moment and closed the day with an increase of 32 points. Today, in the Asian session, the euro adds more than 40 points and exceeded the correction level of 50.0% from a June 7-18 low. Furthermore, prices were higher than the MACD line on H4. Consolidating the price above the MACD line may extend growth to the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (1.1284) and further to 76.4% at a price of 1.1308. On the daily chart, the price is above the indicator lines while the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone.

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The nature of trading pointed to a struggle in the range of 1.1220/50, which does not hint so much of an investment interest in buying the euro. As a result, the market has run out of power to move in any direction. We are waiting for the accumulation of market forces in the range of 1.1215-1.1284. The lower limit of the range is determined by the level of 100.0% Fibonacci on the daily scale. Consolidating below it will resume the medium-term declining interest of market players.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 20,2019

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Japan will release such economic data as all Industries Activity m/m, BOJ Policy Rate, and Monetary Policy Statement while the US will publish such economic data as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, Current Account, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Resistance.3:108.19.Resistance. 2:107.98.Resistance. 1:107.77.Support. 1:107.50.Support. 2:107.29.Support. 3:107.08. (Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 20 - 2019

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We are looking for a final dip closer to 134.52 to complete wave 2 and start a new impulsive rally in wave 3 that ultimately will take us back above the 148.87 peak.

in the short-term, a dip closer to 134.52 remains expected as long as minor resistance at 136.94 is able to cap the upside. However, from 134.52 or upon a break above 136.94 renewed upside pressure should be expected 148.87 and even closer to long-term resistance near 168.00.

R3: 137.35

R2: 136.94

R1: 136.56

Pivot: 136.08

S1: 135.85

S2: 135.35

S1: 135.00

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBO at 134.65 or upon a clear break above 136.94

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 20 - 2019

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We continue to look for a final dip closer to 119.65. Therefore, we are seeing weakness in momentum for the decline from 127.50. This indicates that we are getting close to a possible bottom for wave ii and setting the stage for the next impulsive rally, which ultimately will bring us back above the 127.50 peak.

A break above minor resistance at 122.13 will be a strong indication that wave ii is complete and wave iii is developing.

R3: 122.13

R2: 121.89

R1: 121.65

Pivot: 121.34

S1: 121.04

S2: 120.75

S3: 120.50

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 119.75 or upon a break above 122.13

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 20, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the pound sterling ended 84 points higher. Convergence on a daily scale has proven to be effective. The Marlin oscillator signal line is in the growth zone. The immediate goal of the pound is the resistance line of the price channel at 1.2725. Overcoming resistance opens the way to growth to the MACD line of the daily scale - 1.2840.

On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated above the balance line and the MACD line, the marlin oscillator shows no signs of a reversal. We are waiting for continued growth.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 20, 2019

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair chose the downward scenario following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting. The trend reversal occurred from the zero line of the Marlin oscillator four-hour scale. The price for H4 has consolidated below the signal-target level of 107.78 (a January 10 low) and is now dropping to support the embedded line of the price channel of the weekly timeframe to the level of 107.02. Consolidating below the line can provoke a sharp fall to the intersection area of the rising price channel (green) and a decline to 105.50.

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GBP/USD near resistance, a drop is possible!

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GBPUSD is near resistance, a drop to 1st support is possible

Entry: 1.2711

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss : 1.2759

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.2635

Why it's good: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

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AUD/USD reversed off resistance, potential reversal!

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Price reversed off its resistance where we expect to see it drop further to its support at 0.6861.

Entry : 0.6902

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6929

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6861

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

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USD/JPY approaching support, possible bounce!

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Price is approaching its support where it could potentially bounce up to its resistance at 108.161

Entry : 107.492

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 108.161

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on June 20

Forecast for June 20:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1328, 1.1309, 1.1281, 1.1257, 1.1226, 1.1212, 1.1197 and 1.1162. Here, the price forms the potential for upward movement from June 16. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1257. In this case, the goal is 1.1281, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level 1.1282 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1309. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1328. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1226 - 1.1212. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1197. This level is a key support for the top. Its price will have a downward trend. In this case, the potential goal is 1.1162.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1257 Take profit: 1.1280

Buy 1.1283 Take profit: 1.1309

Sell: 1.1226 Take profit: 1.1212

Sell: 1.1196 Take profit: 1.1162

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2798, 1.2735, 1.2713, 1.2681, 1.2631, 1.2605 and 1.2566. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2681. In this case, the target is 1.2713, wherein consolidation is near this level. The price passage of the noise range 1.2713 - 1.2735 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.2798. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2631 - 1.2605. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2566. This level is a key support for the top. Its price will have a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 1.2504.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2681 Take profit: 1.2713

Buy: 1.2736 Take profit: 1.2796

Sell: 1.2630 Take profit: 1.2606

Sell: 1.2603 Take profit: 1.2568

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9968, 0.9943, 0.9927, 0.9897, 0.9883, 0.9847 and 0.9822. Here, the price forms the potential for the downward cycle of June 19th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range of 0.9897 - 0.9883. In this case, the goal is 0.9847. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9822. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9927 - 0.9943. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the target is 0.9968. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the downward movement of June 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9927 Take profit: 0.9942

Buy : 0.9945 Take profit: 0.9966

Sell: 0.9883 Take profit: 0.9850

Sell: 0.9845 Take profit: 0.9824

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.70, 108.26, 108.09, 107.61, 107.46, 107.22 and 107.08. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of June 17. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 107.61 - 107.46. In this case, the goal is 107.22. Price consolidation is in the range of 107.22 - 107.08. Hence, the probability of a rollback to the correction is also high.

The range of 108.09 - 108.26 is a key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form the potential for the upward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 108.70.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.09 Take profit: 108.24

Buy : 108.28 Take profit: 108.70

Sell: 107.61 Take profit: 107.47

Sell: 107.44 Take profit: 107.22

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3321, 1.3294, 1.3277, 1.3255, 1.3234, 1.3221 and 1.3198. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3255. In this case, the target is 1.3234. Meanwhile, in the range of 1.3234 - 1.3221, there is a price consolidation. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3198. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3277 - 1.3294. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3321. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend - the downward structure of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3277 Take profit: 1.3294

Buy : 1.3295 Take profit: 1.3320

Sell: 1.3253 Take profit: 1.3234

Sell: 1.3220 Take profit: 1.3198

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For the pair Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6919, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6849, 0.6830, 0.6808 and 0.6784. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of June 18th. The consolidated movement is expected in the range of 0.6885 - 0.6900. The breakdown of the last value will begin the development of the ascending structure on the scale of H1. In this case, the potential target is 0.6919.

The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6830. In this case, the goal is 0.6808, wherein consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.6784. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 0.6902 Take profit: 0.6919

Sell : 0.6849 Take profit : 0.6832

Sell: 0.6829 Take profit: 0.6808

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.39, 122.09, 121.91, 121.39, 121.14, 120.75 and 120.54. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of June 11. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.39. In this case, the target is 121.14, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 121.14 must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.75. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.54. After reaching which, we expect a consolidation, as well as a departure to the correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 121.91 - 122.09. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 122.39. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the development of the downward structure of June 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.91 Take profit: 122.09

Buy: 122.11 Take profit: 122.37

Sell: 121.39 Take profit: 121.18

Sell: 121.12 Take profit: 120.77

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.04, 137.60, 137.30, 136.92, 136.40, 136.18, 135.77 and 135.32. Here, we monitor the formation of the potential for the top of June 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 136.92. In this case, the goal is 137.30. Meanwhile, in the range of 137.30 - 137.60, there is a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.04. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 137.60.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 136.40 - 136.18. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 135.77. This level is a key support for the top. Its price passage will count on movement towards the first goal for the downward movement 135.32.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.92 Take profit: 137.30

Buy: 137.32 Take profit: 137.60

Sell: 136.18 Take profit: 135.80

Sell: 135.75 Take profit: 135.33

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD h4 vs #USDX h4 vs GBP / USD h4. Comprehensive analysis of the movements options from June 20, 2019. Analysis of

We prepare a comprehensive analysis of movement options of the main currency instruments EUR / USD h4 vs #USDX h4 vs GBP / USD H4 from June 20, 2019.

Minuette (h4) operating scale

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US Dollar Index

From June 20, 2019, the development of the dollar index movements #USDX will be determined by working off and the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line (97.55 <-> 97.47 <-> 97.40) Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the lower boundary (the level of support 97.40) channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette make urgent continuation of the downward movement of the dollar index to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.20 <-> 97.03 <-> 96.85) Minuette operational scale fork with a view to achieving the initial line of the SSL (96.70) Minuette operational scale fork.

In the case of #USDX returning above the resistance level of 97.55 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel is at the Minuette operating scale), the development of the #USDX movement will begin again within the equilibrium zone (97.55 <-> 97.80 <-> 98.07) of the Minuette operational scale, and if the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minute (98.07) happens, then the dollar index movement can continue to maximum 98.37.

Details of the movement of the #USDX can be seen at the chart.

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Euro vs US Dollar

From June 20, 2019, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will most likely continue in the equilibrium zone (1.1175 <-> 1.1205 <-> 1.1235) of the Minuette operational scale (we look at the details on the chart), but there may be other options that we consider below:

-> The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 1.1235) of the balance zone of the Minuette operational scale fork with subsequent breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1245 will determine the movement of the single European currency within the boundaries of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minute (1.1245 <-> 1.1270 <-> 1.1295) with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (1.1315) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork and the initial line SSL Minute (1.1333).

-> When sharing the breakdown of the level of resistance of 1.1175 (the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 balance scale Minuette operational zone fork) and the final Line Schiff Minuette (1.1165) will probably be a continuation of the downward movement of EUR / USD to the local minimums (1.1117 <-> 1.1107).

The details of the EUR / USD movement are presented in the chart.

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Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

On the other hand, the development of the movement of Her Majesty's currency GBP / USD from June 20, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

-> resistance level of 1.2585 (lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette);

-> support level of 1.2560 (reaction line RL23.6 Minuette operating scale fork).

In the case of the breakdown of the level of resistance of 1.2585, the development movement of GBP / USD will continue within the boundaries of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line (1.2585 <-> 1.2615 <-> 1.2640) and the equilibrium zone (1.2640 <-> 1.2680 <-> 1.2717) Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the line reaction RL23.6 Minuette (level of support 1.2560) -> the resumption of the downward movement of this currency instrument to targets -> level of support 1.2517 (the intersection of the primary lines SSL Minute and the SSL Minuette) <-> control line LTL Minuette (1.2500) <- > LTL control line (1.2427) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Details of the GBP / USD movement are presented in the chart.

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

When will the Fed hike rates?

Today, just when there is literally a few hours left before the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee of the United States, the title issue is fundamental to understanding what will happen in the markets in the next three months. While one thing is clear - at the current meeting, the key rate will not be lowered. However, the farther into the forest, the thicker the partisans, but still try to sort out this issue.

The Fed's actions are regulated by the Federal Reserve Act, where two goals are set as the main objectives: controlling inflation and maintaining employment at high levels. According to this law, inflation targets should be 2% in the medium term, and the unemployment rate should be below 4.5%, although this is an unofficial indicator.

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Among other factors affecting monetary policy, the US Federal Reserve Committee on Open Market (FOMC) monitors the situation in the stock market, which is the basis of the well-being of the middle class. Also taken into account are other indicators of the economy and monetary circulation, which, although they are important elements of the assessment of the economic situation, still only complement the main objectives.

The Committee (FOMC) holds eight meetings per year, of which four meetings are held at the end of each quarter - in March, June, September and December - we call them "main". Four other meetings - in January, April, July and October - fall in the middle of the quarter, we call these meetings "additional". Previously, the "additional" meetings, in contrast to the "main" meetings, were one-day meetings. Later on, these meetings became two days, but were held without a press conference. In 2019, the Fed changed the order of the "additional" meetings, and now after them, as after the "main" meetings, a press conference of the Fed chairman is held, in this case, by Jerome Powell.

From 2019, the main difference between the "main" meetings and the "additional" is the publication and voicing of the FOMC forecasts and its view on the economic situation: an employment and inflation forecast is published, GDP growth prospects are given, the views of the future monetary policy committee members "Dot charts".

To determine the objectives of the Fed's policy, traders use the FedWatchTool tool from the CME futures exchange, which assesses the likelihood of a rate increase as traders who trade in futures on federal funds see it. According to the indicators of this instrument, traders do not expect a rate increase at the June meeting, 79.2% of them believe that the rate will remain in the current band of 2.25-2.50 percent. But then miracles begin, and 66.5% of traders believe that the rate will be trimmed by 0.25% at the meeting on July 31, another 17.5% believe that the rate will be reduced by 0.5%. Thus, 84% of traders predict a rate reduction at the next meeting!

To be honest, I don't really understand this opinion about the current situation, so let's deal with the causes and consequences of this situation.

Now, Donald Trump has unprecedented pressure on the Fed, which for some reason does not cause outrage in the United States. Other actions of the US president may infuriate the American press, but not his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and interference with the work of the central bank. So, answering the question whether he wants to dismiss the head of the Fed, Trump told reporters on Tuesday: "We'll see what he does!".

Earlier, the Trump administration was considering the possibility of Powell's removal from his post, but now, according to the White House's economic adviser Larry Cudlow, the administration is not considering this step. Trump's wishes are, of course, a serious thing, but, unfortunately, for the US president they are not spelled out in the Federal Reserve Act. The law spelled inflation rates and high employment. Let's see what happens with these key indicators.

Here is what CNBC writes about this: "Now that the labor market is showing signs of tension, economists and investors firmly believe that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering rates by next month. The economy added only 75,000 jobs in May, which is 100,000 fewer than expected, a sign that the slowdown that is emerging in other parts of the economy currently affects the labor market." The following are the words of the chief economist of the Wilmington Trust: "I think this is a real slowdown in hiring. Sometimes you can neglect monthly volatility a bit, but I think we have enough signs. "

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Figure 1: Newly created jobs in the United States.

Oh, horror, horror, horror! But still look at the data on the newly created jobs. Indeed, only 75 thousand jobs were created in May, but 224 thousand were created in April, 153 thousand in March, 56 thousand in February and 312 thousand in January. The year 2017 created 200 thousand jobs per month, then 175 thousand were created in 2019. However, employment also increased! At the beginning of 2016, unemployment was 5.2%, now its level is 3.6% (Figure 2), and this is already an overheating of the economy. Here it is time to raise the rate, and not to lower it!

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Fig.2: Unemployment in the USA

Now look at inflation. The core inflation indicator, i.e. excluding food and energy, the Fed uses it to analyze the situation, is now 2% (Fig. 3). The consumer inflation rate is 1.8%, and consumer inflation is now growing, and it has grown from the level of 1.6% since the beginning of the year. This should take into account the fact that consumer inflation has not yet been affected by Donald Trump's actions, who increased duties on Chinese goods. Indeed, there are some rates of slowing inflation, but certainly they are not so terrible that the Fed will take emergency measures.

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Figure 3: Core inflation

Perhaps slowed US GDP growth? Again, no, GDP is growing at a rate of 3.2% per year, and so far no signs of a slowdown have been found. Then maybe the stock market is declining, which is causing concern for the middle class and Wall Street gatekeepers? Again, no! The Dow is just a couple of hundred points away from record highs.

The Fed's greatest concern is the inversion of the yield curve in the bond market, when the yield of government treasury bonds with a short maturity becomes higher than the yield of bonds with a longer maturity. Yield inversion is considered a "true" sign of a near recession in the economy, but is this enough for emergency measures? Is it necessary to reduce the rate in July?

I think that the Fed can really go for a two-fold rate cut in September and December, but on the whole it is unlikely that it will do it in July. However, here I can be mistaken, the future actions of the Fed are too unequivocally interpreted now. Therefore, it is quite possible that the FOMC will indeed succumb to blackmail from the motley public, which today, like a financial addict, requires money for another dose.

In principle, there is no big difference for the Fed, to lower the rate in July or lower it in September. I can assume that in order to avoid problems and quietly go on vacation in August, the Open Market Committee will take such an unconventional step. However, then the Committee should be prepared for the fact that the Fed will demand money at every opportunity, because, according to the markets, the trees should and will grow to the skies!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. June 19. Results of the day. Boris Johnson receives additional support from Dominic Raab

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 77p - 46p - 102p - 76p - 59p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 72p (73p).

The British pound sterling shows an enviable growth against the US currency on the eve of the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting and the speech of Jerome Powell. It is even difficult to assume what has caused such a sharp strengthening of the British currency, which has lately been falling almost non-stop. No encouraging news on Brexit has been reported to the press today. In the UK today, Boris Johnson won the second round of elections for the prime minister post and immediately received the support of Dominic Raab, ex-Minister for Brexit issues, who said that now the only candidate who can provide Brexit until October 31 is Johnson. By the end of May, inflation in the UK slowed down to 2.0% y/y, which is fully consistent with the forecast values. Thus, at the moment we see no weighty reasons for the market to make such strong purchases of the British pound. On the other hand, perhaps it's not a matter of buying the pound sterling, but rather closing short positions before the results of the FOMC meeting are released. Traders got bogged down in dollar positions lately, but before such an important event as the Fed meeting, waiting for a dovish rhetoric from Powell, they began to simply close their shorts. That is what led to an impressive increase in the pound. Such an explanation seems most plausible to us. Now the only thing that remains is to figure out how the market will react to evening events. The rate is unlikely to be changed today. Traders do not react to the words of Donald Trump, in which he criticizes Powell, Draghi and the Bank of China for not adhering to the right US monetary policy. Thus, it remains to be seen whether the rate cut will be announced today in 2019, what will be the forecasts for the main macroeconomic indicators for 2019-2020 and what Powell will be in tune with. The more dovish he is, the more likely it is that the pound will strengthen. However, everything could be different here: as the pound rises in price in the morning, if the assumption of a dovish rhetoric turns out to be true, then the market will have nothing to react to. Thus, the market has already worked out the weakness of Powell's statements in advance.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair started a strong correction. The next goal for the short – 1,2561 and 1,2525 and we recommend them to buy long after the Fed meeting, if the pair remains below the Kijun-sen line and will rebound from it.

Theoretically, it will be possible to buy the British currency when the pair has consolidated above the Kijun-sen line. However, even taking into account the strong upward movement, the bulls' positions still appears very weak today.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com