The US dollar is an obvious favorite of the week, CAD cannot take advantage of the growth of optimism, and JPY is weakening,

At the opening of the week, Asian stocks traded in different directions. The Shanghai Composite declines amid weaker than expected Chinese foreign trade data. At the same time, the Japanese Nikkei is also falling, while the Australian S & P / ASX 200 is growing at half a percent, reflecting the still growing demand for risky assets.

Therefore, the market, apparently, believes that the situation in world trade is gradually improving and the threat of a global recession is decreasing. In favor of this assessment, there has been some positive dynamics in the US and Chinese trade negotiations, as well as the Fed's procurement program, which the markets regard as GE4. On the other hand, purchases in the amount of $ 60 billion per month are expected to be made until April or even until June 2020, which will lead to an increase in liquidity by $ 390-510 billion. These expectations led to attempts to restore the global PMI after the September failure, which first of all, it is reflected in the rapid growth of new orders in the October reports.

analytics5dc909bf4685b.png

How does this optimistic assessment correspond to reality? The answer to this question may appear already this week. On Thursday, November 14, the Fed will publish a new procurement schedule, and optimism will remain dominant if there is no reduction in the rate of purchase of bills. Otherwise, on Friday, there may be a noticeable decline in stock markets and an increase in demand for protective assets.

As for the trade agreements of the United States and China, the optimism here is largely based on rumors, and not on real expectations. The parties, through leaks in the media, seem to have expressed their willingness to gradually abandon tariff restrictions, but the constant shift in the signing of the "1st phase agreement" is making the players more and more nervous.

The dollar, at the opening of the week, looks stronger both against protective currencies and against commodity ones.

USD/CAD

Canadian macroeconomic indicators which were published last week turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts, which, together with the reaction to the FOMC meeting, contributed to the weakening of the "loonie" to 1.32.

Moreover, the trade balance in September showed a slowdown in trade, both export and import volumes decreased, the Ivei business activity index after the September failure did not find any reason to recover more than 10%, the volume of new housing construction decreased, and the number of employees also decreased by 1.8 thousand in October that expected growth of 15.9 thousand/

As a result, the "loonie" did not take advantage of the general growth of optimism in world markets. The chance of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada at a meeting in December is not high and amounts to about 20%, and thus, the Canadian currency still has the opportunity to recover. Today there is a decline in optimism, oil is losing more than 1%, demand for protective assets is resuming, so attempts to reduce USD/CAD will be limited and will be bought out. In addition, the resistance at 1.3235 represents both the middle of the channel and the 40-day SMA, so to overcome it, it is necessary to accumulate strength, but in any case, the favorite in this pair is just the dollar, not the loonie.

USD/JPY

On Wednesday, November 13, GDP data for the 3rd quarter will be published, despite the strong drop in orders in mechanical engineering, the Japanese economy still looks confident, and there is no threat of recession. Export volumes are stable, business activity indices are still holding around 50p. Moreover, the effect of the October increase in VAT is expected.

analytics5dc90a0018e61.png

This morning, the Cabinet of Ministers published the results of the Eco Watchers study. The forecast for the next month turned out to be slightly higher than expected, while the current situation index fell to a minimum since 2011, which does not give reason to expect Japan's economic growth in the short term. Meanwhile, the Nikkey index is unlikely will be able to continue to grow after the US indices.

The attempt to gain a foothold above 109.30 was unsuccessful. The yen rolled lower, but the upward momentum is still strong. Now, if you try to reduce to 108.63, the resumption of purchases is likely to return to the area of maximum 109.44.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast for GBP / USD on 11/11/2019 and trading recommendation

The pound continues its sluggish decline, and on Friday, it could be due more to the expectation of today. The fact is that today in the United States is a holiday, on the occasion of the celebration of Veterans Day, which means that there will be very few participants on the market. However, a number of crucial macroeconomic data are published in the UK today. Therefore, it is likely that many traders last Friday, especially from the United States, played back the forecasts for today's data, and these forecasts are not comforting.

analytics5dc908855ba22.png

Probably the most important macroeconomic indicator that is published today is the third quarter GDP. Even if this is preliminary data, but it is still extremely significant. Moreover, the economic growth rate is projected to slow further from 1.3% to 1.1%. Not only is this in itself not so pleasant, but it will mean that the UK economy is slowing for the second quarter in a row, as at the end of the first quarter, GDP grew by 2.1%, in the second quarter, slowing growth to 1.3%. It's clear that this is a cause for concern, because the economy is slowing down even before Britain left the European Union. Thus, after Brexit, it could be even worse. Nevertheless, in addition to GDP data, industrial production data are also published, which should show a slowdown in the decline from -1.8% to -1.2%. Given that this is still a recession, even a demonstration of positive dynamics, will not correct the negative because of the slowdown in economic growth.

Third Quarter GDP Growth Rate (UK):

analytics5dc9089f24e0e.png

It is worth considering the possibility that the data will not be as predicted. And it doesn't matter, for better or worse. Given the absence of American traders, as well as many European ones, since it is quiet and calm in Europe today. From the point of view of the macroeconomic calendar, then any deviations from forecasts, the market will win back tomorrow.

The GBP/USD pair found a foothold in the face of the range level of 1.2770, where it gently stopped and formed a pullback. Therefore, the fluctuation of the past week was low volatility, but nevertheless, a move from one target level to another occurred, which confirms once again the existing borders and the concentration of market participants inside them. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see just the very same month flat of 1.2770 / 1.3000, where in case of a breakdown of a particular border, market participants would receive a new surge of interest in trading positions. It is likely to be seen temporary fluctuation within 1.2750 / 1.2800, which will reflect the formation of quotes at the control level. After that, it is worthwhile to carefully look at the given frames for the points of price fixation relative to the borders, and only then proceed with the execution of trading operations.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.2800 (+ 5p).

- We consider short positions in case of clear price fixing below 1.2750 (-5p.).

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that hourly and daily periods are prone to further decline. Minute segments, on the contrary, work on the existing pullback, signaling purchases.

analytics5dc908b22ea79.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for November 11. GDP and industrial production in Britain can lower the pound to 27th

EUR / USD

analytics5dc905afef825.png

November 8 ended for the pair EUR / USD with a decrease of another 30 basis points. Thus, the construction of the first wave of the new downward trend section is supposedly continuing, as the trend section between October 1 and October 31 took a completed three-wave form. If this is true, then the decline in quotations of the instrument will continue with targets located about 9 figures and below. That is, with a greater degree of probability, this means the continuation of a long bearish trend for the euro-dollar pair.

Fundamental component:

On Friday, the news background for the euro-dollar instrument remained extremely weak. Throughout the day, there was only one economic report in America. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index, and even its preliminary significance. Thus, the markets on Friday simply continued to "bend their line", adhering to the previously selected trading strategy, which, based on the wave pattern, is to build a downward trend section. On Monday, the news background will remain extremely weak, or rather will be completely absent. A successful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level indirectly indicates that the instrument is ready to continue lowering, thus, by the end of the day, it may drop to 1.0994.

Purchase goals:

1.1175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0993 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.0951 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair allegedly completed the construction of the upward trend correction section. Since the attempt to break through the minimum of wave b turned out to be successful, I now recommend selling the instrument with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.0993 and 1.0951, which equates to 61.8% and 76.4 Fibonacci.

GBP / USD

analytics5dc90a9f16fa3.png

On November 8, the GBP / USD pair lost about 40 basis points, which still fits perfectly with the current wave marking, and which suggests the construction of a bearish trend section within wave c. If this is true, then the decline will continue with targets located on the way to 76.4% Fibonacci level. At the same time, the question continues regarding the interpretation of the trend section after October 21. Therefore, it can still be considered both as wave 4 as part of an upward trend that is not completed, and as wave 1 as part of a new downward trend. However, much will depend on the news background in December. It is in December, when the results of the parliamentary elections will become known.

Fundamental component:

After it became known that the British Central Bank's decision not to change the key rate, the pound could grow a little, which would contradict the current wave markup. However, traders drew attention to two members of the Central Bank Board of Directors, who voted in favor of lowering the rate. This factor gives reason to expect that there will be three or four of them at the next meeting. And as soon as there are 5 or more votes, the Central Bank will lower the key rate. However, the mere fact that the two members of the board vote "for" the easing of monetary policy does not speak in favor of the pound, as it means that the central bankers are concerned about the state of things in the UK economy. Today and tomorrow, several important reports will be released at once, which can just confirm or refute the negative attitude of the members of the Board of the Bank of England. Also today, we are waiting for data on GDP and industrial production, tomorrow - on unemployment and wages. In case most of this data is weak, the pound will continue to build a downward wave c.

Sales goals:

1.2667 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of an upward trend. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of the upward trend section and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument. Since a successful attempt was made to break through the 100.0% level, I now recommend looking in the direction of sales with targets located around 1.2667, which equates to 76.4% Fibonacci.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD Preview of the week: US inflation, Congressional Powell and ZEW reports

The euro-dollar pair lost more than 150 points last week, dropping to the bottom of the 10th figure. Weak German data, a negative outlook by the European Commission and dovish statements by ECB representatives put pressure on the euro. In turn, the dollar was in demand amid a general appetite for risky assets. Representatives of the US regulator made it clear that they are satisfied with the current level of interest rates, thereby offsetting the fears of traders about another round of monetary easing at the beginning of next year.

analytics5dc907816cd5e.jpg

This week, bears of the EUR/USD pair can either strengthen their success (by pulling down the EUR/USD to the bottom of the ninth figure) or give the initiative to the bulls, which will return the price to the area of the 11th figure. The coming days will be full of informational issues, so we can say that increased volatility is guaranteed.

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair will be trading in low liquidity due to national observances in several countries of the world. In particular, today is Veterans Day in the US, Memorial Day in Canada, and Armistice Day in France. This factor will affect today's trading. Traders will not rush to open large positions in anticipation of subsequent events.

On Tuesday, November 12, all attention will be focused on the mood indexes in the business environment from the ZEW Institute. Both in Germany and the eurozone as a whole, positive dynamics are expected, although indicators will still remain deep in the negative area. But after a five-month consecutive decline, any growth dynamics will be perceived by the bulls of the pair "with a bang". In addition, the representative of the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida, will speak on Tuesday, who will comment on the latest releases. In early November, he already voiced his position - in his opinion, bearish risks for the US economy still prevail, however, all decisions of the regulator will continue to depend on the incoming data and be taken "on the spot". I believe that tomorrow he will repeat similar points, putting slight pressure on the greenback.

The most important day of the week will be Wednesday - November 13th. Firstly, on this day, the Fed chief will begin his two-day speech in the US Congress. At first, Jerome Powell will present this report to the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives of the Congress, then to the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Let me remind you that, following the results of the last Fed meeting, Powell unequivocally hinted that the further steps of the US regulator will largely depend on the dynamics of inflation growth. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve would not even think about raising the rate until inflation showed steady and stable growth. Weak inflation and continuing uncertainty regarding trade relations between the United States and China prevent the Federal Reserve from putting an end to this issue. The short-term cycle of interest rate adjustment has been completed, but the regulator, apparently, is ready for further steps in this direction.

analytics5dc9079586473.jpg

On the other hand, last week the dollar strengthened amid hawkish statements by Fed representatives. In particular, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daiy, said yesterday that she did not see the need for further rate reductions, since it was "at the right level." At the same time, Daly fully supported all three rate cuts this year. Earlier, another representative of the dovish wing of the Federal Reserve - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari - said that he was satisfied with the current rate. Kashkari, as you know, is one of the main supporters of monetary easing by the US central bank.

In other words, Jerome Powell can knock down the greenback with his rhetoric, making it possible for EUR/USD bulls to return to the area of the 11th figure. But if he repeats the theses of his above colleagues, the dollar will continue the rally, settling in the framework of the 9th figure when paired with the euro (up to 1.0905 - this is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart).

However, Wednesday is important not only due to Powell's speech - 2.5 hours before his "benefit", the most important release for the dollar will be published. We are talking about the publication of data on the growth of American inflation. The general consumer price index should show a positive trend, rising to 1.8% on an annualized basis and to 0.3% on a monthly basis. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, can also show minimal growth in monthly terms (from 0.1% to 0.2%) and remain at the same level (2.4%) in annual terms. If the real numbers fall below enough predicted values, the dollar may again fall under a wave of sales. Weak inflation will affect Fed members, who are forced to reckon not only with the dynamics of the labor market, but also with inflation dynamics, especially in the light of Powell's rhetoric following the October meeting of the Fed. Therefore, the disappointing CPI report will in any case put downward pressure on the US currency.

analytics5dc907b0ceb2f.jpg

On Thursday, the head of the Fed will continue his two-day speech in Congress. In addition, quite important data from China (industrial production volume) and the US (producer price index) will be published on this day. We will also find out the second estimate of GDP growth in the eurozone and Germany in the third quarter, as well as the German inflation rate.

On Friday, the market will trade under the impressions of previous events. However, Friday's economic calendar isn't completely empty: the United States will publish data on retail sales. Last month, for the first time in March, the overall indicator fell into the negative area, but October figures should show positive dynamics - both the total retail sales and without taking into account car sales should go above zero (0.1 and 0.3%, respectively).

Thus, the focus of eEUR/USD traders will be fon the key events of the week (Powell's two-day speech and release of data on the growth of US inflation). The prospects for China-US relations will also affect the pair. According to preliminary information from the Chinese side, a new trade agreement between the United States and China, under which the US will abolish import duties from China ($ 56 billion), may be concluded on December 15. If the Americans confirm the seriousness of the voiced intentions, the dollar will receive background support. In general, by the end of the week, the EUR/USD pair will either go to the bottom of the ninth figure (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart) or return to the mark of 1.1150 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the Kijun-sen line on the same timeframe) .

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD for November 11, 2019

analytics5dc8ff8f40776.jpg

Technical outlook:

EUR/USD has dropped further as expected and printed lows at 1.1016 today. The single currency pair is seen to be trading close to 1.1022/24 levels at this point of writing and is expected to drop one last time towards 1.0995/1.1000 before turning bullish. Please note that that 61.8 fibonacci extension of the counter trend is seen at 1.1007, while fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous rally between 1.0879 and 1.1181 is seen at 1.0995 levels. A potential bullish reversal can be expected around these levels as fibonacci convergences are seen here. Furthermore, if the drop extended lower, the next support is seen at 1.0940 which is also a point of fibonacci convergence as seen on the chart here. In either case, EUR/USD is expected to find support close to 1.1000 handle or 1.0940/50 levels before the next bull run. It should be noted that risk remains at 1.0879 and that prices should stay above that to keep the bullish structure intact.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879, target is open.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDJPY 11/11/19

Today, the pair is testing the first support zone of the WCZ 1/4 108.99-108.94. The formation of the "absorption" pattern will allow you to enter the purchase. The growth target will be the weekly CZ 110.15-109.94. The ratio of risk to the profit of this transaction will be much higher than 1/3, so the purchase should be considered as the main transaction.

analytics5dc90a7123367.jpg

The correction may continue if the closing of today's Asian session occurs below the WCZ 1/4. The next support zone will be the WCZ 1/2 108.48-108.38. The test of the specified zone will give the opportunity to enter the purchase at the most favorable prices. This model can be taken as a basis in the coming days. The ratio of stop loss to take profit when buying from WCZ 1/2 will be 1 to 8, which makes this transaction extremely profitable. The cancellation of the upward movement will occur if the pair consolidates below the level of 108.38 in one of the US sessions.

analytics5dc90a83d5ba6.jpg

Daily CZ – daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ – weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ – monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 11, 2019

analytics5dc8fbc6eeeeb.png

Short-term resistance at 140.55 protected the upside for another dip to below minor support at 139.65, which is prolonging the triangle. We do expect support at 138.87 will stay untouched for another minor run closer to 140.55 and then likely a second dip before the triangle could be considered complete.

Only a clear break above minor resistance at 140.55 will indicate that the triangle already has completed and a new impulsive rally towards 144.58 is developing.

R3: 140.74

R2: 140.55

R1: 140.12

Pivot: 139.65

S1: 139.27

S2: 138.87

S3: 138.56

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR at 140.12 with our stop placed at 138.75.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 11, 2019

analytics5dc8f981adb34.png

EUR/JPY is once again trying to reach our ideal corrective target at 119.87. Support will be strong in the 119.87 - 120.05 area and the likelihood of a bottom forming here is great. However, to confirm that a corrective low has been seen, we need a break above minor resistance at 120.42 and more importantly a break above resistance at 121.11 that will call for a continuation higher to 123.59 and above longer term.

R3: 121.11

R2: 120.24

R1: 120.05

Pivot: 119.87

S1: 119.71

S2: 119.53

S3: 119.21

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 120.00 or upon a break above 120.42

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on November 11, 2019, on the GBP / USD currency pair.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price will move up, with the first target 1.2827 - pullback level 23.6% (red dashed line), if this level is reached, resume work down, with the lower target 1.2610 - pullback level 38.2% (blue dashed line) .

analytics5dc8f6924329f.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may start to move up.

The upper target 1.2827 is a retracement level of 23.6% (red dashed line), if this level is reached, resume work down, with the lower target 1.2610 - a retracement level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario - immediately moving down with a target of 1.3168 - retracement level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on November 11, 2019, for the EUR / USD currency pair.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the market may begin to slide backward, with the target of 1.1041 - a retracement level of 14.6% (blue dashed line). If this level is reached, it is possible to continue the upper pullback to 1.1057 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

analytics5dc8f5714e594.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, upward movement is possible.

The upper target 1.1041 is a retracement level of 14.6% (blue dashed line). If this level is reached, it is possible to continue the upper pullback to 1.1057 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is the continuation of the downward movement with the target of 1.0995 - a retracement level of 61.6% (red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on November 11, 2019, for the EUR / USD currency pair.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the market may begin to slide backward, with the target of 1.1041 - a retracement level of 14.6% (blue dashed line). If this level is reached, it is possible to continue the upper pullback to 1.1057 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

analytics5dc8f5714e594.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, upward movement is possible.

The upper target 1.1041 is a retracement level of 14.6% (blue dashed line). If this level is reached, it is possible to continue the upper pullback to 1.1057 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is the continuation of the downward movement with the target of 1.0995 - a retracement level of 61.6% (red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCHF 11/11/19

Last week's close was above the WCZ 1/2 0.9970-0.9958. This indicates an increase in the probability of further growth to 75%. The next target of the upward movement will be the weekly control zone of 1.0107-1.0083, which still coincides with the range of the average weekly move.

analytics5dc8fabbe1f53.jpg

It is important to understand that purchases from current marks are not profitable. Corrective movement may be required to continue growth.

Today, the nearest support is the WCZ 1/4 0.9917-0.9911. The test of this zone will allow entering the purchase after the formation of the absorption pattern. The downward movement is corrective, so it is not recommended to consider sales.

analytics5dc8face8b3b4.jpg

Daily CZ – daily control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ – weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ – monthly control zone. An area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 11,2019

analytics5dc8dcf83dd4b.jpg

When the European market opens, such economic data as Italian Industrial Production m/m and German WPI m/m will be published. The US will not release any economic data. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1073. Strong Resistance: 1.1067. Original Resistance: 1.1056. Inner Sell Area: 1.1045.Target Inner Area: 1.1019. Inner Buy Area: 1.0993. Original Support: 1.0982. Strong Support: 1.0971. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0965. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, November 11,2019

analytics5dc8dc70b3fb4.jpg

Japan will release such economic data as Watchers Sentiment, Current Account, Core Machinery Orders m/m, and Bank Lending y/y. The US will not publish any economic data. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:109.65. Resistance. 2:109.45. Resistance. 1:109.23. Support. 1:108.96. Support. 2:108.75.Support. 3:108.53. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 28 points on Friday - the closest target, and it is the signal level - the MACD line on the daily chart, has been reached. Now the price has an open target at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985. Going below the price opens the second target 1.0925 - September 3 and 12 lows. This is our main scenario.

analytics5dc8e2ff24a07.png

A weak convergence formed on the four-hour chart on the Marlin oscillator, but the line structure fits into the wedge, which speaks in favor of continuing to reduce this line. A possible correction is probably limited by the level of 1.1063 - the high of October 11, because it was after overcoming this level that the euro accelerated the fall on November 7th.

analytics5dc8e3147d620.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 11, 2019

GBP/USD

In the decline of recent days, the pound has reached the correctional Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the entire complex movement since September 3rd. The pound has slightly increased today in the US session, which showed the intention to adjust the decline from the peak of October 21. Most likely, growth can be half of the decline, that is, to the level of 1.2872. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the decline zone, it can remain in this zone during the correction period.

analytics5dc8e18e5317e.png

On the four-hour chart, the price is fully preserved in a downward trend - its development occurs under the lines of balance and MACD, Marlin in the decline zone. The generated convergence on the oscillator is very weak. It is very possible that the local correction will not reach the level of 1.2872. The MACD line may meet the price at about this level, but if the correction takes too long, then at lower levels.

analytics5dc8e1a32f42a.png

If the price goes below the Friday low, we expect the pound to continue to decline to the nearest target level of 1.2703 (October 11 high), the price drop below it opens the second target of 1.2608-the Fibonacci level of 38.2% on the daily. The MACD line of the daily scale is striving for it.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 11, 2019

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has kept the intrigue of the last two days in the Asian session today. The expected convergence on the Marlin oscillator is not yet ready, but the prerequisites for this have been strengthened - the same formation has formed on a smaller chart. The US stock market showed growth on Thursday and Friday, but today the Japanese Nikkei 225 is down 0.07% due to weak economic performance. Japan's balance of payments for September fell from 1.72 trillion yen to 1.49 trillion, the base volume of orders for engineering products for the same month showed a decrease of 2.9% after -2.4% in August.

analytics5dc8df5e5ec7d.png

Formally, a completely upward trend remains on the daily chart: the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is above the zero mark, above and below the price, their goals are waiting for: 109.82, 108.72.

analytics5dc8df73a0f85.png

On the H4 chart, its own weak convergence is formed. To achieve the first lower target, the price needs to overcome the support of the MACD line at 108.95, but after that the price has little free movement, about 20 points. We expect the main movement after consolidating the price at 108.72, in this case, the 107.82 target opens - the estimated point of intersection of the red price channel line with the MACD line on the daily

In case of continued growth today, the US stock market, the dollar may turn around to increase. The target of 109.82 as one of the lines of the growing price channel can be reached within two days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD approaching our support, potential bounce!

Price is approaching our first support at 1.09994 where we are expecting a bounce above this level to our first resistance at 1.10654

Entry: 1.09994

78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 1.10654

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

analytics5dc8cae0b5963.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Approaching key resistance

USDCAD approaching key resistance at 1.32395

Entry: 1.32395

61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% and 76.4% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.31965

Why it's good : 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, moving average support

analytics5dc8ca901f094.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF to reach 1st resistance at 0.9983, potential to drop!

Entry: 0.9983

Why it's good: Horizontal swing high resistance

100% Fibonacci extension

78.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.9907

Why it's good : horizontal overlap support

50% Fibonacci retracement

analytics5dc8ca44ce744.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCAD 11/11/19

The upward movement is a medium-term impulse, so part of the long position can be held. There are no serious resistance levels on the way of growth, so the formation of a reversal model will require the formation of an accumulation zone of a weekly level or higher. Purchases at any decline look beneficial from the lower control zones.

analytics5dc8c2abc3256.png

It is important to understand that the most favorable purchase prices are within the WCZ 1/2 1.3149-1.3140. The test of this zone will be decisive for the entire upward movement.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair does not form a correctional decline, but immediately breaks the weekly control zone 1.3231-1.3213 and consolidates above it. Purchases from current marks are not profitable, so the only plan will be to retain previously opened purchases.

analytics5dc8c2c24a2bc.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones Gold 11/11/19

Closing last week's trading occurred below the weekly control zone 1470.58-1466.08. This indicates a continued downward movement in the medium term. It is important to note that the level of 1449.34 is the upper boundary of the zone of the average monthly course. Its test will significantly increase the likelihood of a large demand.

analytics5dc8ce624ef29.png

At the beginning of the week, the decline remains a priority movement, so you will need to search for levels to fully consolidate the short position. Such a mark, as already discussed above, will be the level of 1449.34.

An alternative model will be developed if a sharp rise in the price of gold begins. This will be possible when approaching the monthly control zone. In order to consider purchases, the formation of a false breakout pattern of the Friday low is necessary. The first goal of growth will be WCZ 1/2 1480.55-1478.30.

analytics5dc8ce7842942.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones NZDUSD 11/11/19

The downward movement of the pair is impulsive, as the pair has gone beyond the average weekly movement. This indicates a high likelihood of continued fall and an update of the monthly low. Sales will be profitable after the pair returns to the broken middle course zone. The lower boundary of this zone is at the level of 0.6354.

analytics5dc8b1c65ee51.png

Work in the downward direction will be a priority at the beginning of the new week. The first goal of the fall will be WCZ 1/2 0.6271-0.6265.

A strong increase in demand is required to break the downward momentum, which will lead to the closure of trading on Monday to be above Friday's Asian session. This will indicate the emergence of a major player interested in the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar.

analytics5dc8b1dba9dd3.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. November 10. Results of the week. The UK is approaching elections that can be completely meaningless

4-hour timeframe

analytics5dc899e467400.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 67p - 58p - 53p - 84p - 54p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 63p (average).

The British pound continued a downward movement that remains fairly weak last Friday, November 8. The average daily volatility of the pair is now about 60 points, which is quite a bit for the pound. No important macroeconomic reports were published on Friday in the UK, nor was there any important news regarding Brexit or the upcoming parliamentary elections. In such a situation, the low volatility of the pound/dollar pair is understandable, and the downward movement is justified by the general negative environment for the pound sterling.

In principle, everything that was said on the EUR/USD article also applies to the British currency. If the EU has a huge number of problems associated with low statistical indicators and a slowdown in the economy, then the same thing is present in the UK, only multiplied by the political crisis and still unresolved Brexit. The pound has tended to increase over the past two months, but not because there were real reasons for ending the "divorce" between the EU and Britain in an orderly deal, but because a new batch of rumors entered the market that the parties were close to an agreement . Now, when it became clear to absolutely everyone that the new agreement between Boris Johnson and the European Union was worthless until it was ratified by Parliament, the British currency again fell under the sale of traders. Because just as the "hard" Brexit left the immediate future, the orderly Brexit is also moving away. The country will be in limbo for another five weeks, preparing for the elections. According to many experts, these elections will be the most difficult in the last few decades of the country. The usual and normal practice of parliamentary elections implies that the electorate selects a candidate for the party whose views on governing the country are most to his liking. Now, residents of the UK will have to choose not only by this principle, but also by the principle of Brexit, since each party supports its own Brexit scenario. For example, you can approve of the policy of Conservatives, but you do not want to leave the EU. Then who to vote for? So it turns out that the election results, despite all the ratings and opinion polls, can be completely unpredictable. Accordingly, the future of the country and Brexit is now impossible to predict.

In addition to the fact that neither political parties, nor residents of the UK can unequivocally answer the question "is it worth leaving the EU?", Some senior politicians and officials also regularly speak out about the divorce with the European Union and their opinions are also completely opposite. For example, former parliamentary speaker John Bercow calls Brexit a big mistake. Since he is no longer a speaker, he may not remain neutral, so the politician honestly expressed his opinion on this issue, which was to be kept secret in recent years. Bercow said: "This (Brexit) does not help the UK. If they ask me if Brexit is in our interests, the honest answer is no. I consider Brexit to be the biggest foreign policy mistake of the post-war period. "

Thus, we believe that the British currency will continue to be prone to fall. It simply has no other options at the moment. In the best case, traders will not force events and will wait until the completion of the election, after which they will draw conclusions and build new trading strategies. However, it's about a month before the election, all this time the pound can't just wait and stand in one place. Volatility is now significantly reduced, but the British pound paired with the dollar still needs to move somewhere. This "somewhere" is likely to be down, back to multi-year lows. Well, if the election results do not give the advantage of any of the parties, then the downward trend for the pair pound/dollar will continue.

From a technical point of view, all indicators are now directed downward, so there are no questions about which positions to open. All lines of the Ichimoku indicator, Bollinger Bands, MACD, all show a downward direction. Given the fact that macroeconomic data from the UK also leaves much to be desired, they do not even provide short-term support. Well, a meeting of the Bank of England this week made it clear that in the coming months, the key rate could be lowered. Needless to say, there will be an additional "bearish" factor for the pair?

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD is in a downward movement, which already shows all the signs of a trend. Thus, long positions are not relevant now; it is recommended to trade for a fall with targets at 1.2736, 1.2716 and 1.2667.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. November 10. Results of the week.The positions of the EU and US central banks are identical, but the dollar will

4-hour timeframe

analytics5dc897a73ce0b.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 51p - 76p - 28p - 56p - 38p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 50p (average).

The last trading day of the current week was all in the same downward movement that was observed all week. We have repeatedly said that the bears do not particularly and currently need macroeconomic statistics, loud statements by Mario Draghi or Jerome Powell. The euro, like many other currencies, again fell against the greenback just because the US economy is much stronger and does not experience such firm pressure due to a slowdown in the global economy. That is, very roughly, the US economy is slowing more slowly than, for example, the European one. Now, if you look at the picture from the side of traders and investors, questions arise: in which economy is it better to invest? What currency is more appropriate to buy if it is a matter of making a profit on the basis of exchange rate differences? What currency should be purchased in order to invest in an economy that is showing a slower pace of slowdown? The answer is obvious: US dollar. After all, the movements of a currency pair do not depend only on currency traders. The demand for currency is also formed at the expense of large players who buy or sell currency for major international transactions, for the purchase of government securities of a country, form government reserves using currencies that are most stable. All this again leads to an increase in the US currency. That is why Friday, during which one single macroeconomic report was published - the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan - ended in favor of the dollar. And if we take into account purely technical factors ... the attempt to overcome the level of 1.1175 failed twice, the bulls showed their weakness, the pair turned down and is ready to form a new downward trend. It turns out that, in principle, all factors now speak in favor of the US currency.

One of the most significant factors determining the demand for a particular currency is the policy of the central bank. In the case of the EUR/USD pair - the policy of the ECB and the Fed. We have already written several times that even despite three successive cuts in the key rate of the Federal Reserve, the balance of power between the monetary policies of the European Union and the United States has not changed much. America still has a much higher refinancing rate, which not only speaks of the strength of the US economy at this time, but also of much greater opportunities for maneuverability in the future of the Fed. This factor alone is enough to consider buying the dollar in the medium term. In addition, the rhetoric of the central banks, their attitude, forecasts of the main economic indicators are of no small importance. Here we state a confident draw. If you look at the speeches of the heads of central banks in recent years, then all of their points are reduced to the same thing:

- threat of protectionism policy

- high risks of global economic slowdown

- trade wars hinder economic growth

This is regularly mentioned by Mario Draghi, Mark Carney and even Jerome Powell. Thus, these factors affect the economies of all developed countries, but judging by macroeconomic statistics, the European Union, which also has an unresolved Brexit, suffers the most with the UK.

Thus, we stick with our opinion: in order for the euro to begin to grow in the long run, the US economy must begin to slow down faster, the Fed must lower its key rate to 0.0%. We intentionally do not say that the European economy should begin to accelerate, because there is practically no chance of it now. The EU has just resumed the quantitative stimulus program, it will provide results, but not as fast as we would like, and at best, it will be the results from the category "We stopped the slowdown in economic growth". That is, about any acceleration and acceleration of the European economy is now not even a question. Therefore, the euro's "hope" is for the United States and Donald Trump, whose trade wars could hypothetically have a greater negative impact on the US economy.

From a technical point of view, a new downward trend continues to be formed, therefore, it is recommended to remain bearish. Ichimoku indicator and the Bollinger Bands confidently signal a downward trend. Volatility is now not too high, no more than 50 points per day, but it is this kind of weak systematic decrease that is most dangerous for the euro, as it can last a very long time.

Trading recommendations:

EUR/USD continues to move down. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the currency pair with targets at 1.0997 and 1.0970. Turning the MACD indicator up may indicate another round of correction, but a strong correction is still not expected. It is recommended to return to purchases of the euro currency no earlier than when the bulls break the critical Kijun-sen line, which is not expected in the near future.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com