Global macro overview for 07/12/2015

The crude oil prices dropped significantly on huge market disappointment after the crude oil inventories data was published last week. Moreover, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) refused to cut oil output below 30 million barrels a day, so the current market analysis points out a possible price of $20 a barrel in 2016. This is huge news to the commodity markets and it confirms the bearish trend is still intact.

From the technical point of view, crude oil is looking for a temporary support around the level of 38.99, but it might get easily violated. In that case, the next support is seen at the level of 37.74.

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Global macro overview for 07/12/2015

This week the markets will be absorbing the last weeks' fundamental data as the very important change has occurred regarding interest rates. Moreover, markets might start to position themselves before the Fed interest rate decision later next week, as the probability of the interest rate hike in December is at the level of 80% according to Fed Funds Futures pricing. Nevertheless, this week, key fundamental data will be revealed in the UK, China and Switzerland as there is plenty of fundamental data scheduled for release.

The US dollar index is slowly rising in quiet market environment and it looks like the test of the golden trend line from the bottom will happen soon. The support is seen at the level of 98.34 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 99.98.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 7, 2015

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Overview:

  • The support of the EUR/USD pair has been already found at the level of 1.0790. The level of 1.0790 represents the weekly pivot point for 7-11, 2015. Furthermore, it will be very profitable to buy above this level in order to retest it in the long term. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the weekly pivot point at 1.0790 with targets at 1.0925 and continues toward the point of 1.0980 to reach the double top.

Observations:

  • The level of 1.0790 represents the weekly pivot point and the level of 1.0801 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).
  • We expect a range between the levels of 1.0801 and 1.1068.

The weekly technical analysis of EUR/USD pair:

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 7, 2015

Weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD:

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Overview:

According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair is still below the weekly pivot point (1.5054). The descending movement will probably be higher than the level of 1.5158. History will probably repeat itself at this level again. Consequently, it will be a good sign to sell below the weekly pivot point (1.5054) with the first target of 1.5158 in order to test the double top. Moreover, the double top is coinciding with the weekly resistance 1. Then, it will call for a downtrend to continue with its bullish movements towards the price of 1.5214, which represents the weekly resistance 2. Stop loss should always be taken into account. Hence, it will be very beneficial to set your stop loss and it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. For that reason, stop loss should be placed below the support level at the price of 1.5025.

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Gold analysis for December 07, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,088.63 in an ultra high volume. In the daily time frame, our SMA 10 was broken and this is the first sign of a potential change in the trend's dynamic. According to the M30 time frame, I found a trading range between the prices of $1,082.00 and $1,088.30. Strong support is at the price of $1,072.40-1,069.60. Strong daily resistance is at the price of $1,100.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,084.95

R2: 1,085.80

R3: 1,087.25

Support levels:

S1: 1,082.15

S2: 1,081.25

S3: 1,079.85

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold because we can observe strong demand in the background. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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EUR/NZD analysis for December 07, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.6071 in a high volume. According to the H1 time frame, I placed Fibonacci retracement to find support levels and found strong rejection from Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6070. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. Resistance levels are at the prices of 1.6350 and 1.6475. The short-term trend is still downward, but we may see a potential change in the trend's dynamic.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6320

R2: 1.6395

R3: 1.6520

Support levels:

S1: 1.6075

S2: 1.5995

S3: 1.5875

Trading recommendations : Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 7, 2015

According to the daily chart, GBP/USD established a long-term downtrend after the price rejected 1.5927 on June 18, 2015. Since then, the price has consistently been declining and it seemed that the pair found the support at the 1.5170 level, although it was broken after consolidation on November 6, 2015.

In addition to the breakout of the support, the price also broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci applied to the low of April 14 and the high of June 18. At the same time, the S1 (1.4886) support, that is 76.4% Fibs, has not been tested yet. This could be a strong signal that the downtrend is not over, at least until the price tests the S1 support level.

Consider selling GBP/USD, while the price is near R1 (1.5085), targeting S1 (1.4886). The stop loss could be placed just above the R2 (1.5770), which currently seems to be the key resistance level.

Support: 1.4886

Resistance: 1.5085, 1.5170

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Technical analysis of AUD/NZD for December 7, 2015

After forming a top near 1.1085 on November 24, 2015, AUD/NZD started to move lower and print new lower lows. Meanwhile, the pair also managed to break below both the ascending and descending channels suggesting the formation of a short to medium-term downtrend.

The price closed below the Fibonacci downside target, which is based on the breakout of the ascending channel. The Fibonacci applied to the breakout of the descending channel shows that the downside target has not been reached, while the 61.8% resistance has been rejected today.

Consider selling AUD/NZD near the R1 (1.0950) resistance level targeting the S3 (1.0800) support area. Stop loss should be placed well above the R2 (1.0990). Only daily close above R2 could change the direction of the trend and push the pair much higher in the longer term.

Support: 1.0890, 1.0855, 1.0795

Resistance: 1.0950, 1.0990, 1.1050

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 7, 2015

General overview for 07/12/2015:

The clear five-wave impulsive structure to the upside developed just as anticipated after the ending diagonal in wave (c) of B blue had been finished. Currently, the market is developing the corrective structure to the downside and there are two targets for wave c of the corrective cycle: the first target is 61%FiboExp at the level of 133.47 and the second target is 100%FiboExp at the level of 133.06. Please notice the second target is in confluence with the weekly pivot level.

Support/Resistance:

134.60 - Intraday Resistance

133.47 - 61%FiboExp

133.30 - Intraday Support

133.06 - 100&FiboExp|Weekly Pivot|

131.56 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider placing sell orders from current market levels with tight SL and TP at the level of 133.06.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 7, 2015

General overview for 07/12/2015:

The corrective cycle continues in a tight range between the levels of 1.3433 and 1.3279. The pattern inside of the yellow neutral zone looks like a complex corrective structure. When it is completed, then another wave upward is anticipated.

Support/Resistance:

1.3433 - Technical Resistance

1.3232 - WR1

1.3362 - Weekly Pivot

1.3310 - WS1

1.3279 - Intraday Support

1.3240 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur, because current risk to reward a ratio is too big for any trades. Patience is needed.

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AUDUSD technical analysis for December 7, 2015

AUD/USD is still in an uptrend, but in the short-term we should expect a pullback towards the area of 0.7250-0.7230. A medium-term trend remains bullish as long as the price is above 0.7150.

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Blue line- resistance (broken)

Red line - support

The daily chart above shows the price above the Ichimoku cloud and above both the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators. Support at 0.7150 is important one and bulls do not want to see this level broken. On the other hand, the stochastic oscillator is providing a bearish divergence signal, so a pullback towards 0.72 could be justified.

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Short-term support is found at 0.7250-0.72. Now, it is not the time to be long, but it is preferred to wait to enter long at lower levels. Important short-term support is found at 0.7220. Resistance is seen at 0.7350.

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USDJPY technical analysis for December 7, 2015

USD/JPY continues to trade inside a trading range. The trend remains neutral. Traders should be very cautious and only open positions near the boundaries of the trading range.

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Blue lines - sideways channel

The price is trading around the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud and sideways. The price is trapped inside a trading range of 122.20-124. Traders should be very cautious trading this pair and should use the boundaries of the channel as reverse stop levels.

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Dark blue lines - triangle pattern

A longer-term outlook of the USD/JPY pair shows a triangle pattern being formed. This is another reason why traders should avoid trading this pair as we are in the price zone where risk reward for long or short positions. It is preferred to wait for a breakout and then open a position.

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EUR/USD technical analysis for December 7, 2015

EUR/USD is expected to move lower before bouncing towards its recent highs. EUR/USD is in a corrective upward trend, and choppy price actions are expected. I do not see much more upside in the EUR/USD pair above 1.1050 as I expect the price to move mainly sideways this week.

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Blue line - projection

EUR/USD is pulling back after the sharp spike up after Mario Draghi's speech last week. The price is expected to find support in the area of 1.0730-1.0740, and then bounce towards recent highs. I believe that the market needs to digest this big spike up from last week and we should not expect the downtrend to resume so soon.

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Red line - long-term support

Blue lines - price projection

EUR/USD is expected to move mainly sideways and up until it reaches the Ichimoku cloud resistance. I believe the daily kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) will support the price this week and can bring in some buyers to push gold towards the Ichimoku cloud resistance. In the longer-term, I would expect the price to get rejected and eventually push to new lows near 1.03.

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USDX technical analysis for December 7, 2015

The US dollar index is bouncing as expected from the 38% Fibonacci retracement level towards the initial resistance of 99. Important medium-term resistance is found at 99.50, and only a breakout above it will ruin chances of reaching a lower low at 97.60.

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Blue lines - upward sloping wedge broken

In the 4-hour chart above, we can clearly see why the price is bouncing higher. The price has reached the 1st important support of the 38% Fibonacci level and we should see some more upside towards short-term resistance at 99. Eventually, I believe that we should expect another rejection at highs and a reversal to new lows below the recent low.

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In the weekly chart, the price remains above the weekly kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators and of course above the Ichimoku cloud. I expect the price to hit a lower low in the area of 97.10-96.50 before resuming the uptrend. Long-term support is provided by the Ichimoku cloud at 94-93. A breakout above 100.50 will be a huge bullish signal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold technical analysis for December 7, 2015

Gold price has finally reversed and changed a short-term trend to bullish targeting the level of $1,100 at least. There is also a chance that we have seen a long-term important low and a new uptrend has started, but confirmation will come only at much higher levels above $1,190.

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Gold price broke the downward sloping wedge upwards and moved above the Ichimoku cloud as can be seen in the 4-hour chart. I would expect a back test of the broken cloud at $1,070, but it is not necessary. The minimum bounce target is at the 38% Fibonacci retracement, but I would expect a bounce much higher.

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Yellow line -long-term trend line resistance

Red lines - long-term downward sloping wedge

The weekly chart continues to favor long positions rather than short. The price has made an initial bounce off the lower wedge boundary, and I expect a strong bounce at least towards the kijun- and tenkan-sen resistance levels (yellow and red line indicators) to take place. The weekly stochastic is oversold and is turning upwards confirming my bullish stance.

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Technical analysis of Silver for December 07, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver sharply rallied through the levels of $14.60 from lows at $13.80 last week. The metal is still headed towards at least $14.80 if not higher, before pulling back lower again. Please also note that the level of $14.80 is the Fibonacci 0.382 resistance for a drop from $16.35 to $13.80. It is recommended to take profits on long positions now and wait for a reaction at $14.80 before moving further. Immediate support is seen at $14.40, while resistance is seen at $14.80/$15.00.

Trading recommendations:

Take profits on long positions and remain flat now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for December 07, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has rallied through $1,046 (lows of last week), and $1,090.00. The metal is trading around the level of $1,086.00 at the moment looking for a push through one more high at around $1,100.00 before pulling back again. Immediate support is seen at $1,082.00, while resistance is seen at the level $1,100.00 and higher respectively. It is recommended to remain flat looking for a bearish reaction around the level of $1,100.00. Please note that $1,100.00 is also the Fibonacci 0.382 resistance of the entire drop from $1,190.00 to $1,146.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 07, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair pulled back from the level of 134.50 last Friday and is trading around 133.96 at the moment. The pair has stalled its rally around the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance, of the drop between the levels of 127.00 and 129.50 at 134.50 respectively. Furthermore, the trend-line resistance is also passing through the same region as seen here. The pair is expected to turn lower till 134.50 remains intact. Immediate support is seen at the level of 133.30 and lower, while resistance is seen at the level of 134.50 (interim) followed by 136.00, 137.00, and higher. A push above 137.00 would confirm a turn in the long-term trend.

Trading recommendations:

Exit long positions. Initiate 50% short positions with stop at 135.70.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 07, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair dropped lower tothe level of 1.4950 last Friday as per expectations, but remained shy of 1.4925 before pulling back higher. As shown on the chart, the pair might still drop to the Fibonacci convergence zone around 1.4925 before turning bullish again. Please note that 1.4900/25 is the Fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally from 1.4500 to 1.5550. Immediate support is seen at the level of 1.4900, while resistance is seen at the level of 1.5325 and higher. Bulls should be looking to take back control around 1.4900/25.

Trading recommendations:

Stay long at 1.4920 with stop at 1.4800, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 7, 2015

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Wave summary:

We have seen a perfect impulsive rally from 1.5784 to 1.6490 followed by a nice corrective decline to the 61.8% corrective target at 1.6053 (the low came in at 1.6049) from where the next impulsive rally is expected to take us higher to 1.7191 and possibly even higher to 1.7896 as the next upside targets.

In the longer term, we will be looking for even higher targets as wave 3 progresses.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6065 with stop at 1.6045. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6140 and use the same stop at 1.6045.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 7, 2015

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Wave summary:

A breakout above 133.22 invalidated the bearish count and told us that a decline from 141.04 to 129.62 was a leading diagonal as wave (i) and a correction in wave (ii) towards 136.69 now should be expected before the next impulsive decline in wave (iii).

The corrective rally in wave (ii) has met the leading diagonal resistance-line near 134.59 and could enter a period of consolidation before the final move closer to 136.69 to end wave(ii). This target has been met and new impulsive decline is expected.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR here at 133.95 and place our stop at 133.50 and place take profit at 136.50.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 07, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to rebound. Last Friday, the US stocks surged on strong November jobs data, paring losses made in the previous session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.1% to 17847, the S&P 500 added 2.1% to 2091, and the Nasdaq Composite was also up 2.1% to 5142. Non-farm payrolls rose 211K in November (vs +200K expected, +298K in October), while the jobless rate remained unchanged at 5.0% (as expected).

At the same time, the US dollar broadly strengthened against most other major currencies with the Wall Street Journal Dollar Index gaining 0.4% to 89.76. EUR/USD declined 0.5% to 1.0884 and USD/JPY gained 0.5% to 123.16.

Nymex crude oil dropped 2.7% to $39.97 a barrel after the OPEC had decided to maintain current production levels. On the other hand, gold surged 2.3% to $1086 an ounce. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury declined to 2.274% from 2.328% at the previous session. The pair posted a rebound after falling to 122.44 last Friday. Currently, it remains on the upside while being supported by the ascending 20-period intraday (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands above the 50-period one. At the same time, the relative strength index is well directed above the neutrality level of 50. The first upside target at 123.60 (around last Friday's high) is in sight, and a breakout above this level should trigger a further rise toward 123.85 (around the high of December 3).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 123.60 and the second target at 123.85. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.75 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.50. The pivot point is at 123.05.

Resistance levels: 123.60 123.85 124

Support levels: 122.75 122.50 122.25

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 07, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish bias as the key resistance is seen at 1.0055. The pair failed to break out above its nearest resistance at 1.0055 after the second test, and also broke below its 20-period and 50-period simple moving average on an intraday basis. The outlook remains negative, as the relative strength index is weak below its neutrality area of 50. In these perspectives, a new pullback to 0.9870 and 0.9830 seems to be on the cards, as long as 1.0055 is resistance.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0115. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.0175. The pivot point stands at 1.0055. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9875 and the second target at 0.9810.

Resistance levels: 1.0115 1.0175 1.0245

Support levels: 0.9875 0.9810 0.9745

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 07, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.6695. A trend remains bullish above the rising 50-period moving average, and the pair seems to be forming an intraday "bullish flag" pattern". The relative strength index is still positive above its neutrality area of 50. Besides, the process of moving towards higher highs and lows remains intact. To sum up, as long as 0.6660 holds on the downside, watch for a new bounce to 0.6720 and 0.6790 after limited consolidation.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6720 and the second target at 0.6790. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6630 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6590. The pivot point is at 0.6660.

Resistance levels: 0.670 0.6790 0.6830

Support levels: 0.6630 0.6590 0.6565

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 7, 2015

EUR/USD: There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market now, which has overturned the recent bearish bias abruptly. This market should trend further upwards this week; otherwise what happened last week would turn out to be a false breakout. More fundamental figures are expected this week and they could have impact on the markets.

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USD/CHF: This pair dropped by 400 pips last week, turning bearish abruptly. There is now a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, because the price has already gone below the great psychological resistance level of 1.0000. It might require some difficulty for the USD/CHF pair to go above the great resistance level again, owing to its negative correlation in the EUR/USD pair, and the fact that CHF itself might rally in the middle of December.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair rose from the accumulation territory at 1.4900, to test the distribution territory of 1.5150 (a movement of 250 pips). However, the price needs to move further upwards by 150 pips before the extant bearish outlook can be rendered invalid. Really, the outlook for GBP pairs remains gloomy.

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USD/JPY: Despite strong movements of major pairs last week, this currency trading instrument merely moved sideways. There were short-term upswings and downswings in the market, which made the market condition great for scalpers and intraday traders. The bias is neutral, and it may continue as such until there is a movement of at least 200 pips upwards or downwards.

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EUR/JPY: Last week, the EUR/JPY pair rose from the demand zone of 130.00 testing the supply zone of 134.50. This was a movement of 450 pips, which was an exponential movement brought about by the great stamina in the EUR. The price is currently consolidating, but we might witness a further bullish breakout in the market, since the outlook for JPY pairs is bright for December 2015.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 07, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 185.50. A support base at 185.50 was formed allowing temporary stabilization. The pair is expected to look for a higher top as the relative strength index is well directed. Further upside movement is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 186.55 first. A breakout above this level would call for further advance towards 187.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 186.55 and the second target at 187. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 185.05 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 184.55. The pivot point is at 185.50.

Resistance levels: 186.55 187 187.75 Support levels: 185.05 184.55 184

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 07, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic news on the Eurogroup Meeting, Sentix Investor Confidence, and German Industrial Production m/m is due to be released. The US will publish the economic data on the Consumer Credit m/m and Labor Market Conditions Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0921.

Strong Resistance:1.0915.

Original Resistance: 1.0904.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0893.

Target Inner Area: 1.0868.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0843.

Original Support: 1.0832.

Strong Support: 1.0821.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0815.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 07, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release data on the Leading Indicators together with BOJ Gov Kuroda's Speach. The US will publish economic data on the Consumer Credit m/m and Labor Market Conditions Index m/m. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 123.84.

Resistance. 2: 123.60.

Resistance. 1: 123.36.

Support. 1: 123.06.

Support. 2: 122.82.

Support. 3: 122.58.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com