Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 28, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made the new temporary swing high at the level of 1.1781 after the market had broken out from the ascending channel. This price behavior might indicate up trend acceleration towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big wave down seen at the weekly time frame chart located at the level of 1.1822. However, during the last bull run the market has made a Pin Bar candlestick pattern at the top of the move, so the local pull-back might occur any time now. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1655 and 1.1648. Please notice the overbought market conditions as well.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2024

WR2 - 1.1839

WR1 - 1.1768

Weekly Pivot - 1.1582

WS1 - 1.1509

WS2 - 1.1334

WS3 - 1.1257

Trading Recommendations:

The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540 has been violated, so the EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.1813 - 1.1851. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 28, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made the new temporary swing high at the level of 1.2903. Moreover, the bulls had broken out from the ascending channel, which is rather another confirmation of the positive sentiment despite the overbought market conditions. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3000 and 1.3017. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2848 and 1.2816. Please notice the extremely overbought market conditions despite strong and positive momentum might result in dynamic pull-back soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3215

WR2 - 1.2993

WR1 - 1.2929

Weekly Pivot - 1.2717

WS1 - 1.2632

WS2 - 1.2427

WS3 - 1.2355

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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USD/CAD Price Movement On July 28, 2020.

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The USD/CAD pair is now trying to go up for retracement with the target at the 50-period MA or to the 1.3445 level as another target. Please pay attention whether the Loonie is back down again, especially whether the pair breaks the 1.3331 level downwards. In this case, the upward scenario will be automatically canceled.

(Disclaimer)

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NZD/USD to go down to 0.6622 on July 28, 2020.

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If we look at NZD/USD on the 4-hour chart, we see a divergence between the price and the Stochastic Oscillator. This indicates that NZD/USD will go down soon with the target between 0.6622 and 0.6612 as long as the currency pair does not retrace upwards and closes above the 0.6700 level. If this level is crossed, then the bearish scenario will be automatically canceled.

(Disclaimer)

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 28. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pound expected to sharply

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The British pound's rise to new highs from yesterday could stop today as there are signs of a market reversal and a slowdown in the bullish trend. The pound's strength is directly related to the dollar's weakness. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how after yesterday's entry into long positions from the 1.2815 level, which I mentioned in more detail in yesterday's afternoon review, you can see that two more signals have formed for entering the market. The next entry point was created after returning to the 1.2863 level, which could not be pinned above the first time. Then, the bears were active in the resistance area of 1.2906, from which I advised opening short positions. Repeated sales from this level could be observed in the Asian session.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for July 21 recorded another increase in short and long positions, and it is obvious that the number of bears are rising despite the active opposition of buyers of the pound. This suggests that the market's growth is not due to the British pound's strength, but because of the US dollar's weakness. Problems with Brexit and uncertainty about the prospect of economic recovery have not gone away. The COT report indicates that short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 56,761 to the level of 61,310 during the week. Long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 43,175 to the level of 46,230. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased its negative value to -15,080, against -13,568, which indicates the likelihood of a sharp fall in the pound after the US dollar recovers its strength.

As for the current technical picture, the bulls need to protect the support of 1.2852, since the further upward movement of the pair depends on it. Forming a false breakout at this level will be a signal to open long positions in GBP/USD in the expectation of a second, third, resistance test of 1.2899. Consolidating at this level will be an additional signal to buy the pound while expecting the bull market to continue rising to a high of 1.2961. The 1.3025 range is the long-term goal, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls are not active in the support area of 1.2852, it is best to postpone long positions until the low of 1.2809 is updated, or buy the pound immediately on the rebound from the support of 1.2763 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers have a chance to stop the bull market and form a downward correction. To do this, you need to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2899, and the emerging divergence on the MACD indicator will confirm the precision of entering short positions. If bears are not active at this level, it is best to postpone short positions until the update of the more powerful highs 1.2961 and 1.3025 and open short positions from there immediately on the rebound. An equally important task for the bears is to consolidate below the support of 1.2852 closer to the second half of the day. Along with the poor data on the US consumer sentiment indicator, the pound could plunge to the support area of 1.2809, where the 50-day moving average passes, but low of 1.2763 will be the long-term goal, where I recommend taking profits.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the possibility of stopping the bullish momentum.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2850 will increase the pressure on the pound. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.2899 will lead to a larger rally in the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 28. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's trade). Euro's rapid growth gradually

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday, we observed how the European currency continued to strengthen after the release of good fundamental data on the volume of orders for durable goods in the US, where the figure was better than economists' expectations, pointing to continued recovery of the US economy. If you look at the 5-minute chart, in addition to the first signal to buy the euro, which formed in the European session, you can see how after the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1718, the bulls also created a good point to open long positions in order to continue the euro's growth. The first test of the 1.1750 level caused the pair to go down.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports also indicates that the euro's sharp growth and investors' interest in it will continue. The COT reports for July 21 recorded a sharp increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones, which tells us about the return of investors' interest in risky assets amid the confusion that is happening in the US due to the coronavirus, the presidential election and the fall in Treasury yields. The report shows an increase in long non-commercial positions from 194,252 to 204,185, while short non-commercial positions decreased from 83,340 to 79,138. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position increased to 125,047, against 110,912, which indicates an increase in interest in buying risky assets even at current high prices.

As for today's intraday strategy, there are signs of a slowdown in the bull market and a correction forming. To save the situation, buyers need to form a false breakout in the support area of 1.1729, which will be a signal to open long positions, expecting to continue the upward trend. However, a more important goal will be a breakout and consolidation at the resistance of 1.1772, which almost coincides with this week's high. Only then can we expect an update of the 18-0th figure and a test of the 1.1830 level, where I recommend taking profits. If buyers are not in a hurry to enter the market near the support of 1.1729, and most likely it will be amid a lack of fundamental data in the first half of the day, it is best to defer short positions to update 1.1688, or to buy the euro immediately on the rebound from the 1.1640 support based on a correction of 25-30 points intra-day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers need to be more active, especially given the fact that the hourly chart forms a divergence on the MACD indicator. Forming a false breakout in the 1.1772 area or a resistance test of 1.1802 with the continuation of divergence will be the first signal to open short positions while expecting the euro to sharply decline by the middle of this week. If bears are not active in the area of the 18th figure, it is best to postpone sales until the larger area of 1.1830 is updated, or to rebound from the high of 1.1866, based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. An equally important task for the bears is to break through and consolidate below the 1.1729 support. Along with weak fundamental data on consumer confidence in the US, EUR/USD could significantly adjust to the area of lows at 1.1688, where the 50-day moving average passes, and 1.1640, where I recommend taking profits.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that a downward correction will form in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1715 will increase pressure on the euro. A breakout of the upper border in the 1.1772 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for July 28, 2020

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EUR/GBP is currently testing resistance at 0.9138 and a clear break above here will call for a continuation higher to 0.9298 and 0.9500 as the next upside targets. Longer term we are looking for a break above the former peak at 0.9500 too, but for now, we should focus on minor resistance at 0.9138 and a possible break above here and a rally to 0.9298.

Support is now see at 0.9082 and the near 0.9053. Ideally the later will protect the downside for the expected break above 0.9138.

R3: 0.9175

R2: 0.9154

R1: 0.9138

Pivot: 0.9082

S1: 0.9069

S2: 0.9053

S3: 0.9044

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8646 with our stop placed at 0.9000

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 28, 2020

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After a small correction to 123.22, EUR/JPY is ready to clear minor resistance at 123.87 and more importantly break above resistance at 124.29 for a continuation higher to 125.82 on the way towards the next major upside target at 129.26.

Look for support at 123.60 and again at 123.19. The latter should be able to protect the downside or a new test of 122.81 and likely just below will be seen.

R3: 124.85

R2: 124.30

R1: 123.87

Pivot: 123.60

S1: 123.31

S2: 123.19

S3: 122.81

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 123.35 and we will place our stop at 122.75

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Control zones for GBPUSD on 07/28/20

The pair's growth makes it possible to keep some of the purchases opened last week. The closest target of the upward movement is still the WCZ 1/2 1.2963-1.2942. The lower border of the monthly CZ 1.2931 is slightly below this zone. The coincidence of such significant zones indicates the need for full consolidation of purchases in case the indicated marks are reached, as this can lead to a sharp increase in supply.

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Selling is still premature, so it is necessary to wait until an absorption pattern of the daily level has formed in order to find profitable prices.

An alternative model will develop if the closing of today's trade occurs below Monday's opening. This will indicate the emergence of large sellers and provide an opportunity to enter a short position tomorrow. The decline will be a corrective movement, so sales will be limited.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for EURUSD on 07/28/20

The pair has been trading above the monthly average move for the second week. This makes it possible to search for a sell pattern. You should not enter a short position without forming an absorption pattern on the daily level. It will be possible to consider options only if today's fall exceeds yesterday's growth.

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An upward movement remains a priority, but the probability of returning to the levels of 1.1590 and 1.1521 is close to 90%. This does not provide an opportunity to find favorable purchase prices. Any corrective zone should be ignored.

The alternative growth option will allow the pair to renew the monthly high, however, purchases from the current levels are no longer profitable. The likelihood of forming a corrective movement has significantly increased. This indicates the need to abandon purchases until we return to the 1.1590 level.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on July 28th

Forecast for July 28:

Analytical overview of currency pairs on the H1 scale:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1756, 1.1723, 1.1662, 1.1619, 1.1564 and 1.1539. Here, the price is near the limit values for the upward cycle from July 10. In this connection, we expect to move into the correction zone. A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1723 - 1.1756. We expect a key reversal from here. The level of 1.1662 is a key resistance for the development of a corrective movement and its breakdown will lead to a movement to the level of 1.1619. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1564, to which we expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle to form.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.1662 Take profit: 1.1620

Sell: 1.1617 Take profit: 1.1566

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2994, 1.2916, 1.2878, 1.2783, 1.2750 and 1.2709. Here, we continue to follow the upward structure of July 14. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2878 - 1.2916. We consider the level of 1.2994 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2783 - 1.2750. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2709. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from July 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2878 Take profit: 1.2814

Buy: 1.2818 Take profit: 1.2990

Sell: 1.2783 Take profit: 1.2751

Sell: 1.2749 Take profit: 1.2710

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9260, 0.9214, 0.9194, 0.9162, 0.9128 and 0.9089. Here, we are following the development of the July 16 downward cycle. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range 0.9162 - 0.9128, hence, there is a high probability of an upward reversal. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9089. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9229 - 0.9260. We expect the initial conditions for an upward cycle to be formed to the level of 0.9260.

The main trend is the downward structure from July 16, the stage of correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9230 Take profit: 0.9260

Buy : Take profit:

Sell: 0.9161 Take profit: 0.9132

Sell: 0.9126 Take profit: 0.9090

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are: 106.38, 106.04, 105.81, 105.52, 105.33, 104.98 and 104.72. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure from July 20. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the price passes the noise range 105.52 - 105.33. In this case, the target is 104.98. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level 104.72. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 105.81 - 106.04. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 106.38. This is a key support level for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure from July 20

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 105.81 Take profit: 106.02

Buy : 106.06 Take profit: 106.36

Sell: 105.33 Take profit: 105.00

Sell: 104.96 Take profit: 104.74

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3468, 1.3437, 1.3395, 1.3358, 1.3303, 1.3274 and 1.3211. Here, we are following the downward structure from July 14th. At the moment, we expect movement to the level of 1.3303. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3303 - 1.3274. We consider the level of 1.3211 as a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this level, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3358 - 1.3395. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3437. The range of 1.3437 - 1.3468 is the key support for the downward structure. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed to the level of 1.3468.

The main trend is the descending structure from July 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3360 Take profit: 1.3393

Buy : 1.3397 Take profit: 1.3437

Sell: 1.3303 Take profit: 1.3275

Sell: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3213

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7268, 0.7236, 0.7213, 0.7182, 0.7128, 0.7104 and 0.7064. Here, the price formed a local upward structure from July 24. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7182. In this case, the target is 0.7213. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.7213 - 0.7236. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7268. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7128 - 0.7104. The breakdown of the last level will favor the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 0.7064.

The main trend is the local upward structure of July 24

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7182 Take profit: 0.7213

Buy: 0.7214 Take profit: 0.7233

Sell : 0.7128 Take profit : 0.7105

Sell: 0.7102 Take profit: 0.7065

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 125.37, 124.66, 124.26, 123.67, 123.21, 122.56 and 122.26. Here, we are following the July 10 upward structure. At the moment, the price is in correction. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range 124.26 - 124.66. The breakdown of the last level will allow us to count on a movement to a potential target - 125.37. Upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 123.67 - 123.21. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 122.56. The range of 122.56 - 122.26 is the key support for the upside.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 10, the stage of correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.26 Take profit: 124.66

Buy: 124.70 Take profit: 125.35

Sell: 123.65 Take profit: 123.25

Sell: 123.18 Take profit: 122.60

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 138.41, 137.73, 137.25, 136.55, 136.04, 135.48, 135.18 and 134.75. Here, we are following the upward structure from July 17. At the moment, the price is in the correction area. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 136.04 - 136.55. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 137.25. There is a short-term upward movement in the range of 137.25 - 137.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.41. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.48 - 135.18. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 134.75. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 17

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.05 Take profit: 136.55

Buy: 136.60 Take profit: 137.25

Sell: 135.16 Take profit: 134.80

Sell: 134.75 Take profit: 134.10

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 28, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro decided to play its role to the end. Yesterday the price exceeded the target level of 1.1735, closing the day by gaining 96 points. Now the price should reach the upper border of the price channel around 1.1800. With the price level and the Marlin oscillator developing, divergence persists, respectively, we are waiting for the price to reverse down in the medium term. The timing may coincide that a reversal from such a key level will occur tomorrow, that is, on the day of the Federal Reserve's announcement of its decision on monetary policy.

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The oscillator shows a timid attempt to reverse against the rising price on the four-hour chart. This could be noise, or it could be warning a reversal. But since the Fed announces its decision tomorrow, the situation will be resolved on Wednesday.

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The main issue that concerns investors is the Fed's intention to target the yield curve for government bonds. If they hint that this is not necessary, the dollar will get a fresh dose of optimistic mood.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 28, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar gained 53 points yesterday, taking advantage of the greenback's weakness - the dollar index lost 0.74%. The price is still hesitant to make even a small cross on the 22nd, having penetrated the 0.7190-0.7225 range. But even now, the triple divergence is still in force; a downward reversal can take place without a local overshoot. Price taking below 0.7075 will become a signal for this. In this case, the aussie's closest target will be the 0.6900 level.

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The price entry into the 0.7190-0.7225 range will lead to forming a divergence on the four-hour chart. This can be a turning point at a given working scale.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 28, 2020

USD/JPY

The yen has reached the first stage of our declining scenario on Monday - it tested the first target level of 105.15. The Marlin Oscillator is only showing a slight reversal on the daily chart. Overcoming the level opens the second target of 104.60.

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There is a weak convergence with the price on the four-hour Marlin chart, this is a sign of an expected shallow correction, possibly even a sideways movement. In any case, we expect the price to overcome the first level of 105.15 and further decline to 104.60.

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AUDUSD holding above ascending trendline support! Further upside potential!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.71399

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, Moving average support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 0.71882

Reason for Take Profit: -27.20% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.71995

Reason for Stop Loss: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

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USDCAD testing downside confirmation, possible drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3363

Reason for Entry: 61.8% fib extension

Take Profit :1.3274

Reason for Take Profit: 127% fib extension

Stop Loss:1.3440

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal overlap resistance

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 28. Only 20% of Americans believe that the country is moving in the right direction. The

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 190.3118

We would like to start this article with "but the British pound is more expensive because...", but the British pound is not expensive, it depreciates the US dollar. It is getting cheaper on all fronts of the currency market. Even gold, which is now trading around 2000 per troy ounce, has increased in price in part because the US currency has fallen in price. Thus, we can't say anything remarkable for the British currency at the end of Monday. No macroeconomic publications were scheduled for this day in the UK. The only macroeconomic report from the US was ignored by traders. No important events occurred on this day. Everything still revolves around the "coronavirus" epidemic in the US, around mass riots and absolutely inexplicable actions of the US government. It is completely unclear what Donald Trump and his subordinates are going to do with so many people infected with COVID-2019. It is not clear why Trump does not listen to the advice of doctors and Anthony Fauci personally in a situation when it is the doctors who should be asked for advice. It is absolutely unknown what will happen to the country if the rate of virus spread continues to remain at 60-70 thousand per day. After all, even if all this is explained by Trump's desire to restore the economy, it will not recover if half the country becomes ill. People will not lead an active life, will not go to work, will not take part in the economic recovery. They will only receive unemployment benefits and wait for the epidemic to end. Thus, from our point of view, the presidential administration is digging a hole for itself. And the main contender for the post of President in the 2020 election, Joe Biden, does not even need to comment on anything. Trump's ratings continue to fall, not only Democrats are criticizing him, but the public's confidence in Biden is growing.

An interesting opinion poll was conducted by the NORC Research Center in the USA. According to this poll, an absolute majority of Americans, 100 days before the presidential election, believe that the country is going in absolutely the wrong direction. Only 32% of respondents are satisfied with how the current presidential administration is coping with the pandemic, only 38% of respondents believe that the country's economy is in good condition, and 80% of respondents believe the current political course is wrong. By and large, this is another sociological study that shows that Trump will not be re-elected in November.

The economist periodical made an even broader and deeper analysis, according to which, the probability of winning the election of Joe Biden is 91%. This forecasting model takes into account not only social opinion, but also the situation with the epidemic in each state. According to the same study, Biden is 99% likely to win the majority of American votes in the election. However, given the peculiarities of the American electoral system, in which the winner is not the candidate who will get the most votes, but the one who will get the most "electoral votes", this indicator is not too important. Trump may not get a majority of American votes, but still win the election if the most "important" states give a large number of "electoral votes" for him. However, the forecast model of the economist also says that Biden will get about 250-415 electoral votes, while 270 will be enough to win. Thus, Biden's chances of winning the election are 91%. The prediction model also allows you to predict what the results of voting for individual states will be. So Biden is highly likely to win in 25 states, and Trump - in 20.5 more states are called "controversial" and the results for them are unpredictable.

But for traders of the pound/dollar pair, the question remains extremely important:when will the market "remember" that the situation in the UK is no better? If things are relatively calm in the European Union, they are not in the UK. The fact that the prospects for the UK economy are vague and this applies not only to this year, but also to the next, and 2022, has not been written or spoken about yet except by a lazy person. There were no trade agreements with the European Union and the United States. The economy is already weakened by two blows, Brexit itself and the "coronavirus crisis". Thus, in the situation with the pound, we can draw a conclusion with 100% probability: the pound is growing only because the dollar is falling. There is no reason to strengthen the British currency now and there can not be. Even positive and optimistic rumors about the negotiations for Brexit now, and it is on them that the pound has repeatedly shown growth in the period 2016-2019. But now there is not even this, because the government of Boris Johnson puts almost ultimatums in negotiations with Brussels. And the European Union does not follow London's lead. Who will lose the most from this will become clear in 2021.

No major publications are scheduled for Tuesday, July 28 in the UK and America. However, traders do not need statistics right now. There are enough reports that things are still bad in America for the dollar to keep getting cheaper. Thus, we recommend that market participants continue to trade "on the trend", without trying to predict a downward turn. The end of the upward trend can happen tomorrow, or in two weeks. There are no technical signs of the end of the upward trend at the moment, neither on the lower timeframes nor on the higher ones.

During this week, at least two important events will occur for the US currency. Publication of GDP for the second quarter in the US, as well as summing up the results of the Fed meeting. On the one hand, these two events can "finish off" the US dollar, and on the other hand, it is unlikely that traders will pay attention to the economic problems of the dollar and sell it even more. Thus, it is absolutely possible that both of these very high-profile events will simply be ignored by the markets, but the US currency will still continue to fall. In any case, we will know this on Wednesday, when the Fed's meeting results and Jerome Powell's press conference will take place.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 102 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Tuesday, July 28, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2769 and 1.2973. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2756

S3 – 1.2695

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2878

R2 – 1.2939

R3 – 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move up on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is recommended to continue trading for an increase with the goals of 1.2939 and 1.2973 (the level of volatility on Tuesday), until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Short positions can be considered after fixing the price below the moving average with the goals of 1.2695 and 1.2634.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 28. Epidemiological chaos in the US is finishing off the dollar. Trump is criticized in

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 172.3765

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to rise in price on Monday without the slightest sign of a correction. In principle, what is currently happening in the currency market is called a "collapse". Just on the chart, the pair is moving up, however, the US currency continues to collapse against its main competitors. Needless to say, on Monday, when the dollar began to fall immediately from the opening of trading, there was still no news, reports, publications or anything at all that could cause such a strong sell-off in the US currency? And do traders need any economic or political news at all? We have repeatedly written that the United States is experiencing almost all possible types of crises. We don't remember such a nightmare in America, which is considered a "superpower", a country with the strongest economy in the world, for a very long time. The epidemiological crisis in general goes beyond the borders of reality. This weekend, it became known that US doctors wrote a collective letter to the White House calling for the resumption of the quarantine. Doctors believe that the best decision of the government should not be to "open the economy", but to "save lives". Health officials believe that by November 1, the number of victims from the "coronavirus" may reach 200,000 people. And if the quarantine is not tightened, then even more. However, despite the monstrous scale of the epidemic, people in the United States continue to go to bars, hairdressers, restaurants, tattoo salons, and so on, doctors complain. That is, they do not do very important things in times of a global pandemic. Well, Donald Trump at a time when 60-70 thousand Americans are infected every day, decided to once again brag to the whole world, saying that in America, a total of 55 million tests have already been conducted since the beginning of the pandemic. "We do far more tests than any other country in the world," the US president said. The American president did not forget to once again criticize the "false TV companies and media", in particular the CNN company for absolute bias in covering the problems of the pandemic. Trump accused CNN that the TV company just wants Joe Biden to win the election in November, so in any case, it will criticize him, even if the country will be conducted 10 times more tests for "coronavirus". Well, the news that the country's chief epidemiologist, Anthony Fauci, has started receiving life-threatening letters looks absolutely incredible. To him and his family. Of course, no one knows who the letters come from, but we remind you that it was Fauci who warned both the White House and Donald Trump personally from the very beginning that the "coronavirus" is not a runny nose and, if we do not take appropriate measures, the United States can reach 100,000 infections a day. Now - 60-70 thousand, and the US government continues to ignore Fauci. Despite the fact that in words, Trump agrees with the chief epidemiologist, calling him a "literate person", but the head of state does not take any actions to curb the spread of COVID. The head of the White House believes that Dr. Fauci made several important mistakes, although what exactly Trump did not tell the public. However, this is not surprising. Earlier, Trump promised to present indisputable evidence of China's guilt "in a couple of weeks". It's been a couple of months. At the same time, the speaker of the house of representatives Nancy Pelosi, who has repeatedly openly clashed with Trump, gave the US president a new nickname. This time, Pelosi called Trump "Mr. Make-It-Worse". Thus, the Democrats and the speaker of Congress personally blame the mistakes in the fight against the "coronavirus" not on Fauci or China, but on Trump. By the way, we have rarely seen accusations of China's culpability in the epidemic not from Trump and his supporters. According to Pelosi, it is Trump who is to blame for the huge number of diseases and deaths from "coronavirus" in the United States. "Since the beginning of the pandemic, it has made things worse," Pelosi says. – At first he hesitated, then denied it, then said it was a hoax, then that it would magically disappear." In such conditions, how can the dollar be in demand in the foreign exchange market?

Well, do not forget that mass rallies and protests continue in the country, which are gradually reorienting from the death of George Floyd and the "Black Lives Matter" movement to the call for Donald Trump to resign. What is happening now in Portland, Oregon, can generally be called a war between the protesters and special forces of Trump, who were sent to this city, "where the authorities can not or do not want to suppress the rallies". And Trump's intention is to send the relevant units to other cities in America.

In general, against the background of all this chaos, traders are not interested in macroeconomic statistics at all. Yesterday, quite important reports on orders for long-term products were published in the United States. The main indicator increased by 7.3% m/m, the indicator excluding defense and aviation orders added 3.3% m/m, the indicator excluding defense – by 9.2%, and excluding transport – by 3.3%. Two and four indicators were only 0.1% better than the forecast values, and 2 out of 4 were worse than the forecasts. Thus, in total, we can conclude that this package of statistics could not support the US currency. Because of its weakness and unconvincing. Due to the fact that this week is expected to be a disastrous report on GDP (forecast -35% in the second quarter). Due to the fact that the epidemiological and social situation in the country completely overrides any weak economic optimism, which in turn is overlaid by the upcoming GDP report.

To date, the United States has not scheduled any important reports, as well as in the European Union. However, now traders do not need economic data to continue selling the US currency. Now this upward movement can only end when buyers are banal enough and begin to fix profits. First, this will lead to a correction, and then everything will depend on sellers and their desire to start investing in the dollar. At the moment, we see few fundamental reasons for the bears to become more active. Can everything change this week after the publication of the GDP report (unlikely) and after the results of the Fed meeting?

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 28 is 103 points and is still characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1660 and 1.1866. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a round of downward correction within the framework of an upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to strengthen its upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in purchases of the euro currency with the goals of 1.1841 and 1.1866, until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward (1-2 bars of blue color). It is recommended to open sell orders no earlier than when the pair is fixed below the moving average line with the first target of 1.1475.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBPCAD approaching support, potential bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.70845

Reason for Entry: Ascending trend line, 100% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback support

Take Profit: 1.73784

Reason for Take Profit: 100% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.69823

Reason for Stop Loss: Horizontal swing low support

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair for July 28. COT report. Will Beijing deal a devastating blow to the

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair also continued to trade higher on Monday, ignoring the long-maturing technical need for a correction. However, the trend is now quite strong, and to be more precise, the fundamental background for the pair is very strong. It continues to push the quotes up. The upward trend line continues to support buyers, although a few days ago there were a couple of precedents that signaled a possible change in the trend. This is also indicated in the Commitment of traders (COT) report (see below). Thus, if the upward trend in the euro does not raise any questions, it is still not so confident in the pound. The fundamental background also leaves sellers the opportunity to switch on and enter the market at any time. The first call to change the trend will be to break the trend line.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are still directed upward on the 15-minute timeframe, so there are no prerequisites for changing the trend direction at the moment. The latest COT report on the British pound sterling is very alarming. The fact is that during the reporting period (July 15-21), the British currency grew against the dollar, but the non-commercial, which is the most important category of traders, was actively opening Sell-contracts at that time. In just a week, non-commercial traders opened 4,500 new Sell-contracts and only 3,000 Buy-contracts. Thus, the net position decreased by about 1,500, which implies that the bearish mood among the major players is strengthening. However, as we said, the pound was growing during that time period. The most interesting thing is that the commercial category also did not open Buy contracts. Quite the opposite, it got rid of them, closing almost 5,000. Thus, both groups of traders did NOT increase longs, nevertheless, the pound rose in price and continues to grow in price to this day. We believe that this is a signal for an emerging trend change, but this does not mean that it will happen on Tuesday. It is rather strange to observe the currency's growth, which is mostly sold by the major players.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair can be described as mutually negative. Because it is equally bad in the United States and in the UK. However, traders for once completely ignore the negative from Great Britain or consider it insignificant. But at the same time, they completely focus their attention on what is happening in the United States. And we see a large number in the US. There is so much negativity that it is not clear how the country will get out of this hole, in which it fell in just six months. Do not forget that the trade deal with China is also in danger of being disrupted since relations between Beijing and Washington continue to heat up. If China decides to terminate the first phase, it will not only mean an escalation of the trade conflict, but also put an end to the hopes of the world community for the second phase of the agreement. And this will just be a verdict for US President Donald Trump, since a huge number of American farmers will lose their market, which is unlikely to cause them indescribable delight. And, accordingly, it is unlikely that they will run to the polls on November 3 to cast their vote for Trump. Beijing may well strike a similar blow, since it has long ago realized that it will not be possible to negotiate a good deal with Trump. One hope is for Joe Biden, who is already about 90% likely to become the next president of the United States.

There are two main options for the development of events on July 28:

1) The outlook for the bulls continues to be very positive while the pair continues to stay above the trend line. The first target for the week was reached on Monday - the resistance level of 1.2889. The bulls did not manage to overcome it, so now a correction to the trend line is possible, and it is advised to open new longs after breaking the 1.2889 level with a target of 1.2988 or after the correction has been completed. In this case, the potential Take Profit will be about 80 points.

2) Sellers are advised to start considering the possibility of opening short positions with the target of the Senkou Span B line (1.2622), but for this they need to wait until the Kijun-sen line (1.2773) and, accordingly, the trend line is overcome. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 120 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on July 28. COT report. No good news from America. Sellers still out

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair continued its upward movement all day on the hourly timeframe of July 27. The fact that there were no particularly important news and publications on Friday or Monday, and yet traders continued to actively buy the euro and sell the dollar, suggests that there are simply no bears on the market now, and buyers are not ready to take a pause even for a couple of days to adjust the currency pair. Bulls do not even want to consolidate the profit, which should already be quite high, given the strength and duration of the upward trend. The price managed to overcome the first resistance level of 1.1741 on the first trading day of the week and in general, nothing prevents the pair from moving up. The price is moving further away from the ascending channel, which indicates the strengthening of the upward trend.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are still directed upward on the 15 minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the short term and no signs of an emerging trend reversal. Well, the latest Commitments of traders (COT) report showed a major change in favor of buyers. Professional traders (non-commercial category in the COT report) opened 9,500 new Buy-contracts during the reporting week (July 15-21) and at the same time (!!!) closed 8,000 Sell-contracts. Obviously, the net position for this category of large traders, which is the most important and believed to drive the market, grew by 17,500 at once. The euro continued to rise in price after July 21 and is doing so to this day. Consequently, non-commercial traders have continued to ramp up their purchases of the euro. Thus, even the COT report does not give any reason to suppose the completion of the upward trend in the euro. Even 36,000 Sell-positions opened by the commercial category of traders did not have much significance, only, perhaps, they slightly slowed down the euro's growth. Although it's scary to imagine how quickly the euro would have risen in price if it had not been for these 36,000 Sell contracts.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair obviously did not change on Monday, since the very nature of the pair's movement remained the same. Macroeconomic statistics from overseas did not have any impact on the course of trading. However, in any case, it was neutral at best and could not support the dollar in any way. Significant data from either the US or the EU will not be released on Tuesday, July 28. Thus, the only hope for the dollar is that unexpected positive news will come from America (for example, a vaccine against coronavirus will be invented or rallies and protests will be completely suppressed), or that buyers will simply get enough and stop buying the euro. We do not see any more chances of strengthening the dollar now. The White House, led by Donald Trump, is doing everything to make the economy sink even more, and the US president himself is doing everything to avoid being re-elected in November for a second term. Thus, the political, sociological and epidemiological chaos that reigns in the US does not contribute to the good mood of the bears of the euro/dollar pair.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for July 28:

1) Buyers continue to dominate the market. Buy orders remain relevant with the nearest target at the resistance level of 1.1827, to which, by the way, is around 80 points. Thus, you are advised to either stay in the pair's purchases with the designated target, or to open new longs with the target of 1.1827, since the 1.1741 level was overcome. You can also open new longs on an upward signal of some indicator, such as MACD, after a downward correction, if any. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 80 points.

2) The bears continue to rest and wait for the bulls to give them at least a chance to seize the initiative in the market. This requires price consolidating below the Kijun-sen line (1.1602). In this case, you are advised to sell the pair with the target at the support level of 1.1486. It is recommended to consider more serious sales after the price consolidates below the rising channel with the target at the support level of 1.1317. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 90 to 260 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Stock markets experiencing difficulties: falling indices noted almost everywhere

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There is a multidirectional movement on the stock exchanges of the Asia-Pacific region today, the cause of which, first of all, is the growing tension between the United States of America and China. In addition, previously presented concerns about a slowdown in economic recovery in the region seem to be starting to materialize.

Despite the fact that the world's stock markets for the most part managed to recover all the losses that were associated with the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, there is still a long way to a final recovery and sustained growth. Experts argue that a fast pace of recovery will also bring the economy more problems than positive things in the long run. Moreover, the growth in the number of infected with COVID-19 does not stop and even begins to grow rapidly in certain regions and countries. The situation is especially serious now in the United States of America.

But even more problems may arise against the backdrop of an escalating conflict between Washington and Beijing. Any news on this topic is extremely important for market participants.

Thus, reports that the American diplomatic mission in the city of Chengdu, located in Sichuan province, stops its activities at the insistence of the Chinese authorities, caused some panic in the markets. Recall that this was a retaliatory measure against the United States after the American authorities decided to close the Chinese Embassy in Houston, Texas. Market participants began to fully realize that the conflict between the countries is protracted and will only gain momentum in the near future.

China's Shanghai Composite index went up 0.29% this morning. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index showed a negative trend, which reached 0.37%.

According to the statistics received, the profits of the largest Chinese enterprises in the industrial sector in the first month of the summer increased again. This was the second growth in a row, which may be evidence of a gradual recovery of the country's economy from the crisis. The total profit margin was approximately 20 million yuan higher than the previous figures, which speaks for a rather significant increase of 11.5%. Thus, profit reached the level of 666.55 billion yuan, or 95.22 billion dollars in terms of dollars. At the same time, the growth rate became one of the highest in the last year. Let's remember that this indicator was at the level of 6% in May.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index began to fall, the morning drop was 0.17%.

On the contrary, South Korea's Kospi index found support for growth, as it grew to 0.8% to the previous level.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 was also in positive territory, adding 0.24%.

US stock markets ended last week's working day on a minor note, the reduction was noted almost everywhere. The negative side of strained relations between Washington and Beijing is also weighing on investors here. However, another important topic is still corporate reporting, the season of which has not yet come to an end.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.68%, or 182.44 points, which moved it to the level of 26469.89 points.

The S&P 500 index lost 0.62%, or 20.03 points. Its current mark was around 3215.63 points.

The Nasdaq Composite index lost more than the rest at -0.94%, or 98.24 points. This forced it to settle within 10363.18 points.

In general, the main US indicators showed a moderate negative trend over the past week. The DowJones ended up 0.8% in the red, interrupting its four-week winning streak. The S&P 500 parted with 0.3%, and the Nasdaq became the leader of the decline, which it had 1.3% for the second straight week.

The epidemiological situation in America also remains tense, which market participants are closely monitoring. According to experts, uncertainty will persist for a long time in the markets, which will be reflected in the level of volatility, which is now quite high and will remain so for a long time.

On the other hand, the statistics are pretty good. For example, sales of new buildings in America over the past month increased to their highest values in the last thirteen years. There were 13.8% more new houses in June of this year, and their total number reached around 776,000. The figure was more modest in the last month of this spring - 682,000 new homes, but even it exceeded preliminary forecasts of 676,000.

However, while even positive statistics in the economy are not able to keep stock indicators in a positive zone, they have started a correction, the limit of which is not yet clear.

European stock markets supported the global downward trend and also mostly moved into the negative zone. The conflict between the US and China here is played the least, the focus of investors is news about the mandatory quarantine of arriving on the territory of Spain and the UK. The tourism industry is again beginning to experience unpleasant difficulties, which is reflected in the general mood of market participants.

The general index of large enterprises in the EU Stoxx Europe 600 is still slightly falling by 0.08%.

The UK FTSE 100 Index is down 0.3%. France's CAC 40 index lost 0.32%. Spain's IBEX Index became the leader in the fall, losing 1.44%. The German DAX index is the only one showing positive dynamics at +0.21%. The Italian FTSE MIB index remains indecisive and unchanged.

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When will panic dollar sales end?

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The dollar made another downward spurt despite being oversold. The dollar index dropped below 94 points on Monday. EUR/USD rallied above 1.1700. Thus, the expectations that the rate of the main pair will go into correction after reaching the 1.1500 mark did not come true.

Market players, apparently, are inclined towards the fact that the authorities will reduce the degree of social discontent with generous interventions and distribution of money to the population before the presidential elections. This factor speaks in favor of a weakening dollar. The greenback is also under pressure from heightened tensions between the US and China. If earlier the greenback could benefit from the confrontation between the two giants, now everything is different. As a safe haven, traders are now buying the yen and the Swiss franc.

The Japanese currency strengthened against the dollar to a 4-month high, located around the 105.17 level. Meanwhile, the franc reached a 5-year high of 0.9167 against the dollar.

This week, traders are focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, which starts on Tuesday. No major announcements are expected, but financial officials may start laying the groundwork for further action in September or later this year. The rhetoric of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can send the dollar in one direction or another. The most likely is a downward movement. The Fed Chairman previously expressed hope that the economy can recover in the second half of the year, but the current epidemiological situation has confused all the cards and, it seems, will force Powell to radically change his views. Any mention of negative rates will hit the already weak dollar, which is expected to decline both before the Fed meeting and after.

USDX

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The data on economic growth in the US, which will be published on Thursday, may also affect the dollar. Despite signs of slowing down, COVID-19 is still spreading at a high rate in the United States. Market players have doubts about the rapid economic recovery. Traders are preparing for the fact that in the second quarter, GDP fell by 34% on an annualized basis, in the first quarter it fell by 5%.

Considering a whole train of negative factors for the dollar, large American investment banks are unanimously lowering their forecasts for the national currency. The pessimism towards the dollar is really hard to dispute when it comes to the long term. In the medium term, things may be a little different. The dollar exchange rate has now fallen catastrophically and needs to be corrected.

It is expected that the correction will start at 1.1700 when paired with the euro. A technical pullback to the 1.1600 area is possible, after which the transition to the 1.1370 area will be justified. Lower is unlikely. Here, most likely, we will see long-term bearish positions being formed on the greenback. Thus, July may be the worst month for the dollar in the last ten years.

EUR/USD

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So, the rates for further depreciation of the US currency are likely to grow. The main reasons: the aggravation of the conflict between Beijing and Washington, the alarming epidemiological situation in the United States, the growing expectations of the FRS rate cut. Do not forget about the November presidential elections in the country, which carry many uncertainties.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com