Trading plan 04/30/2018

Trading plan 04/30/2018

General picture: Week of great news.

On a new week: On Wednesday, 19:00 BST, the decision of the Fed. It is possible to raise the rate.

On Wednesday, at 13:15 London time, a private report on employment in the US from ADP for April.

On Friday, the non-farms at 13:30 London time.

A lot of news is not the highest but the first priority.

And do not forget, Trump should announce, not later than May 1, whether there will be new duties on steel and aluminum applied to the EU despite the visits to the US by Merkel and Macron. The question remains.

GBP / USD: Despite a strong fall in the previous days, we expect a strong rebound from 1.3700.

We buy from 1.3700, stop 1.3660, profit 1.3800.

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Trading Plan for EURGBP for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/GBP H4 chart view shows an intermediate wave structure. The price action since March 2017 till now has unfolded into an impulse (5 waves), followed by a zigzag (3 waves) as seen here. Please note that EUR/GBP dropped between 0.8960 through 0.8620 levels unfolding into 5 waves as labelled here. The subsequent rally can be seen unfolding as 3 wave corrective structure labelled as A-B-C. If the above counts hold to be true, the next probable move is expected lower towards 0.8100/8200 levels in the coming weeks. Looking into the wave counts of a larger degree, EUR/GBP seems to have completed Waves 1 and 2 as labelled here, and is into its wave 3 lower now. Also note that the pair has found resistance just shy of the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement at 0.8830/40 levels. Please prepare for another bear leg from here.

Trading plan:

Short now around 0.8800 levels, stop above 0.8960 levels, target lower towards 0.8200 levels at least. Please note that this is a positional trade.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the US PCE Core at 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 30/04/2018

The beginning of this week is quite calm, although at the end of last week there was a very positive event on the Korean Peninsula where leaders of both North and South Korea decided to denuclearize their countries, vowing the formal end of the Korean War. While these are definitely promising declarations, Fitch remained skeptical in the report that the process of normalizing the relationship will probably be long and unpredictable, and the forthcoming meeting between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump does not eliminate the risk of a military stalemate.

As far as macroeconomic readings are concerned, first of all, it is necessary to mention PMI publications from China. Industrial PMI in April showed a slight decline from 51.5 to 51.4 pts (expected 51.3), while PMI for services improved from 54.5 to 54.8 pts. Such readings look quite encouraging for stock market investors, who are still cautious due to the trade prospects between the US and China, as well as limiting lending in the second largest economy in the world. Moreover, the global investors should remember that the PMI reports that were released today were published by the government, while the private PMI from Caixin appears on Wednesday and Friday - both are expected to have lower values than those we saw today.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is still in a consolidation between the levels of 267.28 - 265.47, but the market conditions are now overbought. Any breakout below the level of 265.47 will likely result in a slide towards the level of 264.12 and even 263.00.

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Trading Plan for DAX for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The daily chart presented for DAX clearly indicates a potential beginning of the bearish trend either from the current levels or from 12,900 levels. As projected here, the drop between January 23 and March 26, 2018 unfolded into 5 waves labelled here as the wave 1 termination point. Also note that like its counterpart FTSE, the DAX has also broken below its 2016 trend line support. The subsequent rally has not yet managed to reach the back side of support turned into resistance trend line, but is facing strong resistance at the Fibonacci 0.382 levels itself. Looking into the wave counts, the counter trend rally seems to have carved out into 3 waves a-b-c as labelled here. Whatever the case, the DAX is well poised to drop lower from the current levels or 12,900 (Fibonacci 0.618) resistance going forward.

Trading plan:

Sell 50% positions now at 12600 levels, remaining around 12,900, stop above 13,500 and target remains open.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 30/04/2018

Thursday's release from the ECB was not a clear pretext for the sale of the euro, but at the same time did not give enough reasons for buyers to stand in the way of the general appreciation of the dollar. In the statement, everything except date was unchanged compared to the March meeting. At the press conference, President Draghi was somewhere between neutral and dovish. On the one hand, it did not show much concern about the latest series of weaker macro data. In his opinion, the slowdown in the pace of expansion and normalization in the data was expected, although the weakening of some indicators was unexpected, but also drew attention to the impact of one-off factors. The ECB expresses confidence in the continuation of inflation strengthening, which is supported by satisfactory signs of wage increases. On the other hand, Draghi added some doubts in the context of the pace of normalization, because he said that the Governing Council did not discuss the future of QE, nor what it would do at the next meeting in June. This statement, in the market's judgment, leaves open the way for leaving this decision for later (eg for July).

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on a larger time frame, like a daily interval. If Draghi wanted not to give any direction signal for EUR, I think it worked. However, "zero" for EUR and "plus" for USD resulted in the euro-dollar congress in the accompaniment of other cross-count against the dollar. The overhang of short positions in USD, collected since the fourth quarter of 2017, is large, and in the case of EUR/USD - the highest, and if the conviction to the dollar is drastically reversed, balancing the position will not end in one week. But the most brutal part of the trade seems to be behind us and with the next possible wave, investors may want to wait for a fresh impulse in the data. In this context, however, I would not count on the indications during the next couple of days, because what will come out less in this quarter will be recovered in the next with the additional help of the effects of tax reform. If you already look for signals from macro data, then ED interest rate decision and statement, ISM, NFP are worth to keep an eye on in the coming week.

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Trading Plan for FTSE for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The daily chart for the FTSE, which is presented here, shows that the next bear leg is just about to begin. The FTSE dropped lower between January and March 2018, sub-dividing into 5 waves as labelled here. Also while dropping lower, it broke below its December 2016 trend line support as seen here. On March 26, 2018, wave 1 terminated and prices were clearly into the sell zone. The subsequent rally also unfolded into 3 waves labelled A-B-C here and the index is testing the back side of its support turned into resistance trend line low. Please also note that Fibonacci 0.618/0.786 resistances are also in play now and bears should ideally resume from current levels. A conventional Head and Shoulder reversal pattern is also been seen as the FTSE carves out its potential right shoulder now. A clear case of selling here should be kept in mind.

Trading plan:

Sell now around 7,540/7,500 levels, stop above 7,800, target is open.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for Dow Jones for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The Dow Jones daily chart has been presented here for a bigger picture of existing wave structure and it shows a potential cone type consolidation/contracting triangle since Jan 29, 2018; highs at 26,698 levels. If you observe closely, the pair has been carving out lower highs and lower lows. The index seems to be into its wave (3) of early stages at present. It the above structure holds true, then prices should stay below 24,869 levels and broadly below 25,750 levels. Having said that, please prepare to sell again around current levels at 24,400/500 with risk above immediate resistance at 24,860 levels. Please also note that a break below 23,500 levels will accelerate the drop and would extend through 20,000 levels in the weeks to come.

Trading plan:

Sell again around 24,400/500 levels stop around 25,000 target 20,000

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for AUDUSD for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The daily chart view presented for AUD/USD is suggesting that the current drop that began in January 2018 from 0.8130 levels is nearing a major price support and Fibonacci 61.8% extension near 0.7500 levels as shown here. Please note that while dropping lower for last 4 months, the pair has broken below its 1-year support trend line and is also looking to take out the price support near 0.7500 levels, before pulling back. Traders who are holding short positions, should prepare to book profits for now and remain flat; while aggressive traders should be preparing to turn bullish for a potential counter trend rally. Looking into the wave counts, the current drop has unfolded into 3 waves until now. Hence chances remain for a continued rally as well. It is still unclear whether AUD/USD is wanting to drop into 5 waves or not. It can be only confirmed in the coming sessions where the counter trend rally would end.

Trading plan:

Prepare to take profits on short positions taken earlier. Aggressive traders prepare to go long around 0.7500 levels with a tight stop.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 30, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.2193, while minor resistance is seen at 1.2140. Support is found at the levels of 1.2056 and 1.2061. Last week, the EUR/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 1.2056. The pair rose from the level of 1.2056 to the top around 1.2140. In consequence, the EUR/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at the level of 1.2056. Today, the level of 1.2056 is expected to act as major support. Hence, we expect the EUR/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.2056 towards the target level of 1.2140. If the pair manages to cross the level of 1.2140, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2140 in order to reach the second target at 1.2193 to test the second resistance on the H1 time frame. However, the spot of 1.2193 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend will probably be rebounded again from the second resistance as long as the level of 1.2193 is not breached.

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Trading Plan for NZDUSD for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook;

The NZD/USD daily chart view has been presented here to have a bigger picture of the wave structure. Please note that the pair produced its impulse wave lower between July and November 2017. As labelled here, NZD/USD dropped into 5 waves lower during this period. The subsequent rally unfolded into a zigzag A-B-C, and prices pushed through the Fibonacci 0.786 resistance zone through 0.7400/40 levels before turning lower again. The above wave counts indicate that NZD/USD pair has completed waves (1) and (2), and is now unfolding into wave (3), which seems to be into its early stages at present. Please note that the current wave should terminate subsequently below 0.6800 levels going forward. Major resistance is seen at 0.7450 and 0.7550 levels. Any subsequent rallies through 0.7200/0.7300 levels should be considered as opportunities to initiate short positions.

Trading plan:

Positional traders may remain short with stop above 0.7450 levels. Intraday/interday rallies should be taken as opportunities to go short again.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German consumer Price Index and US PCE Core at 08:00 AM EST and 08:30 AM EST, respectively.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for April 30, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite corrective and volatile with the recent price action, which is currently expected to push lower towards $8,500 before pushing up higher with target towards the $10,000 price area in the coming days. Though the price has been quite corrective but remaining above $9,000 is a sign of bulls momentum in the market, which may lead to further bullish pressure in the future as well. After the positive fundamentals published recently including the transaction cost and speed of bitcoin, certain market participants were attracted but the inability of the buyers to push the price higher with certain impulsive momentum raises a question about the reliability of the bullish trend pressure in the market. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to push lower towards the $8,500 area where the Kumo Cloud support also lies and from where it is expected to push higher towards $10,000 in the coming days. As the price remains above $8,000 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 30, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 1.3711. The support is found at the level of 1.3711. The price is likely to form the double bottom on the H4 time frame. Today, the major support is seen at 1.3711, while immediate resistance is seen at 1.3789. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 1.3711. So, buy above the level of 1.3711 with the first target at 1.3789 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 0.3868. Also, the level of 0.3868 is a good place to take profit because it will form a major resistance today. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the GBP/USD pair to climb from 1.3711 to 0.3868. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3700, a further decline to 1.3555 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.

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Fundamental Analysis of EURJPY for April 30, 2018

EUR/JPY is currently quite volatile and corrective, residing inside the price range of 131.50 to 133.00. The price has been struggling to break above the 133.00 area for a while now whereas EUR failed to gain momentum due to worse economic reports weakening the bullish pressure in the process. Today EUR German Retail Sales report was published with a decrease of 0.6% from the previous decline of -0.2% which was expected to increase to 0.8%; M3 Money Supply report showed decrease to 3.7% from the previous value of 4.2% which was expected to be at 4.1%; Private Loans report showed slight increase to 3.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.9%; and Italian Prelim CPI report was published with decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Moreover, the German Prelim CPI and ECOFIN Meetings results is currently tentative and expected to be quite neutral with the outcomes.

On the JPY side, after having BOJ Policy Rate unchanged at -0.10% which was published last week along with BOJ Statement which had hawkish forecasts for the upcoming economic development of Japan. The positive economic event helped the currency to gain certain momentum over EUR but was not sufficient to counter with an impulsive pressure. Today, as of the observance of the Showa day, there will be no economic report or event on the JPY side, whereas tomorrow the JPY Final Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 53.3.

As of the current scenario, certain volatility and further correction along the way is expected, whereas JPY is expected to have an upper hand having mixed economic reports this week, while EUR is expected to struggle with the worse economic reports.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is expected to push lower towards 131.50 and later towards 129.50 in the coming days. Recently in the market, the Bearish Continuation Divergence has formed which is expected to push the price lower in the coming days with confluence. As the price remains below the 133.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EURUSD for April 30, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains which lead the price to reside inside the support area of 1.2050-1.2160. EUR has been struggling with the worse economic reports published recently providing no support for the currency to gain momentum against the impulsive non-volatile bearish pressure. Today EUR German Retail Sales report was published with a decrease of 0.6% from the previous decline of 0.2%, which was expected to increase to 0.8%; M3 Money Supply report showed decrease to 3.7% from the previous value of 4.2% which was expected to be at 4.1%; Private Loans report showed a slight increase to 3.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.9%; and Italian Prelim CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Moreover, the German Prelim CPI and ECOFIN Meetings results is currently tentative and expected to be quite neutral with the outcomes. On the other hand, ahead of the NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate reports to be published this week, today USD Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%; Personal Spending is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%; Personal Income is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%; Chicago PMI is expected to increase to 58.2 from the previous figure of 57.4; and Pending Home Sales is expected to decrease to 0.6% from the previous value of 3.1%. As of the current scenario, EUR has been worse with the economic reports published today, whereas USD economic reports forecast is quite mixed. Though USD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports, further positive outcomes are expected in the coming days leading to further domination over EUR. To sum up, USD is expected to have an upper hand over EUR this week whereas certain volatility and correction can be observed in the process of further bearish momentum in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the support area of 1.2050-1.2160 from where certain correction and volatility is expected. Though the bearish impulsive trend is still in place, but certain retracement can be seen along the way as the price is currently quite away from the mean price. Currently, we will be waiting for the price to break below 1.2050 with a daily close, before we try to sell this pair for long-term profits with target towards the 1.1720 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below the 1.2300 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 30, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $9.150. An increasing number of stores have started accepting bitcoin cash (BCH) and a few other cryptocurrencies. This bitcoin cash adoption roundup features five vendors that recently started accepting the digital currency including a brand new bar dedicated to 15 cryptocurrencies. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the rising wedge on the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscillator and successful rejection of supply trend line (downward channel), which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Projected targets are set at the prices $8.824, $8.610 and major projection at $8.330.

Support/Resistance

$9.405 – Intraday resistance

$8.824– Intraday support

$8.824 – Objective target 1

$8.640 – Objective target 2

$8.330 – Objective target 3

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader 4.

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Bitcoin analysis for 30/04/2018

France is to tax profits from the sale of cryptocurrencies as capital gains on movable property. The country has changed the approach to lower rates from 45% to 19%. Earlier this year, the Supreme Administrative Court of France was asked on behalf of taxpayers, questioning the established regime, in force since July 2014, regarding taxation of bitcoins and other transactions related to cryptocurrencies.

In line with the mentioned tax legislation, profits from the sale of cryptocurrencies were considered as commercial and industrial profits in the case of ordinary and continuous operations and as non-commercial gains in occasional events. Thanks to this categorization, taxpayers were subjected to various rates, which could have reached even 45%.

As reported by French media Le Monde, the Council of State changed the approach to partially adjudicate in favor of the plaintiffs in the above-mentioned case. The institution decided to reconsider how the profits resulting from the sale of cryptocurrencies are regulated and now they see them as profits from movables. This means that they are to be taxed at a fixed rate of 19%, which is significantly lower than the previous position, even if a generalized social contribution (CSG) is added to 17.2%.

The Council of State also reported that "there are specific circumstances specific to cryptographic asset transactions that may imply that they are subject to rules on other categories of income". In other words, if capital gains would result, for example, from activities other than cryptocurrencies-related sales, such as the extraction of Bitcoins, they would fall into the category of commercial and industrial profits under the previous regime, irrespective of whether the activity was carried out or she was only occasional. Therefore, these profits will be taxed at a higher rate of 45%.

At the end of last year, the head of AM (the French regulator of the stock markes) expressed his positive opinion on cryptocurrencies, stating that they could meet a legitimate business need. However, the general attitude of the country has changed many times over the past few months. We have already seen that the Governor of the Bank of France calls for a greater emphasis on the cryptocurrency exchanges.

Let's now take a look at the bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market is hovering just above the weekly pivot at the level of $9,208 as it is testing the intraday trend line support as well. A breakout lower would indicate a slide towards the level of $8,700 and even a possible test of the technical support at the level of $8,355. On the other hand, a rally higher (which is still possible according to the current Elliott wave count) would bring a new local high in the last wave 5, so the level of $9,719 would have been broken. The projected target is seen at the level of $9,826.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 30, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 109.28. According to the M30 time frame, I found a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The price broke the upper band of the keltner channel, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 109.50.

Resistance levels:

R1: 108.42

R2: 109.77

R3: 110.00

Support levels:

S1: 108.85

S2: 108.60

S3: 108.25

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 30, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3747. According to the M15 time frame, I found that sellers are in control, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The short-term trend is bearish. The key support level is set at the price of 1.3745. If you see a valid breakout of the support, watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the prices of 1.3692 and 1.3622.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3894

R2: 1.4008

R3: 1.4080

Support levels:

S1: 1.3705

S2: 1.3833

S3: 1.3520

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading plan for 30/04/2018

There is not much movement overnight in the currency market. The most important report was the Manufacturing PMI from China that slightly beat the expectations. Most of the currency markets are still range bound: EUR/USD below 1.2150, GBP/USD below 1.3800, USD/JPY below 109.50.

On Monday, 30th of April, the event calendar is light in key data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Personal Spending and Chicago PMI data from the US.

EUR/USD analysis for 30/04/2018:

In the afternoon, we will get the inflation data from Germany. The HICP readings from Germany will suggest which direction the eurozone economy is most in line with as Friday's estimates of inflation from France and Spain can be considered mixed. In addition, attention should be paid to the publication of the PCE inflation from the US. The last GDP report has revised the readings a bit, expecting growth of only 0.1% for March. However, it will be enough for core inflation to grow to 1.9% on a yearly basis.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the level of 1.2054 and currently is trying to test the technical resistance at the level of 1.2154. Only a breakout above this level would open the road towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.2215. The extremely oversold market conditions are supporting the short-term corrective bounce towards the mentioned levels.

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Trading Plan for Crude Oil for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The crude oil daily chart view has been presented here to highlight the last wave C, unfolding into 5 waves, within the A-B-C corrective rally that was discussed on the weekly chart on Friday. As seen here, the the wave counts are clearly indicating that 5 waves looks to be complete from the lows at 42.00 levels, which was a potential wave B termination point. Also note that the last wave 5 has unfolded into a potential ending diagonal structure, indicating a potential trend reversal. If this wave count holds to be true, prices should break below 62.00 levels immediately and eventually through 57.00 levels, before producing any meaningful correction. Aggressive traders who went short on Friday based on the weekly chart recommendations, should consider holding positions with risk above 71.00 levels while conservative traders please wait until the price breaks below 62.00 levels.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain short with stop above 71.00, target 62.00 and 57.00 at least.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German Consumer Price Index and US PCE Core to be out today between 08:00 AM to 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for Silver for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

Silver daily chart view has been presented here for a bigger and clear wave picture. Silver had earlier dropped into 5 waves as labelled here between $17.70 to $16.10 levels, forming an impulse wave (1). Thereafter, silver had produced a 3 wave a-b-c counter trend rally that terminated into wave (2) of the same degree. Please also note that wave (2) almost tested the Fibonacci 0.786 resistance of wave (1). The metal is now into its wave (3) of early stages and a push below $16.10 levels would accelerate its drop further. Looking at the lower degree wave counts, the metal seem to have produced its wave 1 between $17.35 through $16.40 levels or is very close to producing. Please be prepared for a counter trend rally into wave 2 of the same degree before silver reverses lower again. Interim support is seen at $16.10 levels, while resistance is at $17.40 levels.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders please prepare to go long, while conservative traders please remain flat for now and look to sell higher again at $17.00 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German Consumer Price Index and US PCE Core to be out today between 08:00 AM to 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for Gold for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

Gold 4H chart presented here might be suggesting that t gold has either formed or is close to forming an interim low any time soon. As discussed on Friday, the metal might have already formed a low at $1,313 levels or should be looking to print yet another low around $1,310 levels, before resuming its counter-trend higher. Please note that the price support is also seen at $1,307 levels as seen on the chart view here. Aggressive traders should be preparing to go long around $1,307/10 levels today, if prices drop. Looking into the wave counts, the metal is very close to completing at least its 3rd wave around the above prices. If this holds true, we should see a counter-trend rally towards $1,330 levels before the metal reverses lower again. If $1,307 gives in, the next support in line is at $1,302 levels which could be taken out before producing a meaningful rally.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders prepare to go long with stop below $1,307 levels. Conservative traders please remain flat for now and look to sell again around $1,330 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German Consumer Price Index and US PCE Core to be out today between 08:00 AM to 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for USDJPY for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The USD/JPY 4H chart might be now indicating that an intermediate top is in place at 109.50 levels. The pair had peaked through 109.50 levels before pulling back lower forming the evening star candlestick pattern, pointing to a short-term change in trend. Please note we are only suggesting a counter-trend drop lower towards 108.00 levels before the rally could resume. At the moment USD/JPY seems to be retracing the Friday drop and should find resistance around current levels 109.25/30 soon. Looking at the wave counts, the pair seems to have completed waves 1,2 and 3 as shown here and could be underway for a corrective wave 4. Normally if the above wave count holds to be true, the 4th wave would terminate at the Fibonacci 0.382 support which is seen at 108.00 levels for now. Aggressive traders who took short positions on Friday can hold for now.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain short with stop above 109.60, target 108.00. Conservative traders remain flat for now look to go long again around 108.00 levels..

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German Consumer Price Index and US PCE Core to be out today between 08:00 AM to 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for GBPUSD for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD H4 chart has been presented here for a larger picture and slight change in the wave counts as proposed on Friday. The single currency pair is now seen to be targeting 1.3730/40 levels, which is pretty close to the previous price support at 1.3710 levels as shown here. Please note that the entire drop from 1.4375 levels is still unfolding into 5 waves at a lower degree to construct wave (1) of one larger degree. Also please note that the pair looks to have already formed a major top at 1.4375 levels and terminated wave (4) of a larger degree. If the above count holds true, the pair should be heading much lower, unfolding into 5 waves. Looking into the recent wave counts, the pair is into its 5th wave right now and is expected to terminate the same around 1.3740/50 levels. Then we can expect a counter trend rally higher as shown here.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders prepare to go long again after 1.3740/50 lows with a very tight stop. Conservative traders please remain flat for now and look to sell higher.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the German Consumer Price Index and US PCE Core to be out today between 08:00 AM to 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound hacked off

The release of data on Britain's GDP for the first quarter was the last nail in the coffin for the British pound. The economy of the United Kingdom has slowed to 1.2% y / y, which is the weakest indicator since 2013. In quarterly terms, it increased by 0.1%. And although the bulls of the sterling are trying to make a good face in a bad game, stating that the worst culprit in the loss of the speed of GDP was bad weather and that the Bank of England only pays attention to the second assessment of the indicator (in October-December 2010, under the influence of similar factors, -0.6%, but then was revised to 0.1%) show evident signs of a structural slowdown.

First of all, we are talking about the loss of steam by the leading trading partner of Britain - the eurozone. Problems of exporting in the United Kingdom was created by a strong pound, which until mid-April, seriously claimed to be the best performer among the G10 currencies. And yet, the roots of the problems need to be sought in performance. If in the second half of 2017 the indicator showed the best dynamics in the last 10 years, then in 2018 its speed decreased. Against the background of further improvement of the labor market conditions, this was the first sign of a recession.

Disappointing statistics on GDP caused another blow to the "bulls" for the GBP / USD, bringing down the pair's quotes to the lowest level since early March. The chain of "dovish" rhetoric of Mark Carney, the weak data on the economy of Britain, and the reduced probability of monetary restriction BoE show that sales of sterling "continues to work. The chances of an increase in the repo rate for the month of May from 0.5% to 0.75% fell to 20%. Although, before the fiery speech of the head of the Bank of England a week ago, the data confidently kept close to 80%. Moreover, the market is increasingly believing that in November, when the regulator tightened monetary policy, they had made a mistake.

The dynamics of the probability of BoE rate increase in May

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In any case, a too rapid slowing of inflation and a sluggish economy are weighty arguments in favor of having to measure seven times before cutting off. Just as the futures market was confident in the May raise of the repo rate in mid-April, by the end of the month, the market became a convinced agnostic. Is it any wonder that a 4.2% collapse of GBP / USD happened in a couple of weeks?

With the least role in this process was the strengthening of the US dollar under the influence of growth in the yield of treasury bonds. What's next? First, rates on 10-year Treasury bonds could not overcome a psychologically important 3% line in one breath, and it is not a fact that negotiations on trade between Washington and Beijing will go smoothly. Secondly, Bloomberg experts are optimistic about the upcoming releases on business activity in Britain for the month of April. These factors are able to support the "bulls" for the GBP / USD.

Technically, reaching the bottom of the ascending trading channel and targeting by 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern increases the risks of rollback in the direction of 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave as part of its transformation into the 5-0 pattern. On the contrary, a confident break of support at 1.37 will allow the "bears" to count on the continuation of the southern trend.

GBP / USD, daily chart

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index H4 chart presented here is indicating a high probability of a lower setup for now. The index peaked at 91.98 levels on Friday before resuming a correction lower. Please note that the Fibonacci 0.382 support comes in around 90.90 levels, which could offer the first level of support. The pair has also produced an engulfing bearish candle right around 92.00 levels, indicating at least a bearish corrective drop. Aggressive traders who took short positions on Friday as suggested may hold their respective positions for a while. On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for another low before initiating long positions again. Looking at the wave counts, the pair has completed waves 1,2 and 3 higher, of the same degree and wave 4 should be underway now. The termination point of wave 4 should be around 90.90 levels going forward.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain short with stop above Friday high.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German Consumer Price Index and US PCE Core to be out today between 08:00 AM to 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EURUSD for April 30, 2018

EUR/USD remains in a bearish channel. The trend is still bearish as the price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart. However, the bullish divergence in the RSI is warning dollar bulls that this downward move could soon be over.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Blue upward sloping line - bullish divergence

The EUR/USD pair has short-term resistance at 1.2150 and support at 1.2095. Bulls need to break above the bearish channel and stay above 1.2150 in order for the price to move towards the next important resistance by the Kumo (cloud) at 1.2250. If support at 1.2095 fails to hold, then the chances of making new lows towards 1.20 are increased.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 30, 2018

The US dollar index remains in a bullish trend. Our target of 91.70 has been achieved. The price made a high on Friday at 91.99. Important resistance is found at 92. The RSI is providing a bearish divergence sign. As I said on Friday, I prefer to take profits as I'm expecting a strong pullback, if not a major top, to be formed around 92.

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Black lines - triangle

Blue lines - bearish divergence

The US dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at 91.35 and next at 90.60. The trend is bullish as long as the price is above 90.50-90.60 where the 4-hour cloud is found. A break below the cloud will be a bearish confirmation of the RSI divergence.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 30, 2018

The gold price has broken above the downward sloping wedge pattern and is now back-testing it. Gold could make one more new lower low around $1,311 today before reversing its trend to the upside. The trend remains bearish as the 4-hour candlestick is still below both the tankan- and kijun-sen indicators.

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Red line - resistance

Blue lines - wedge pattern

Upward sloping blue line - bullish divergence

The gold price has short-term support at $1,311 where we find the lower wedge pattern boundary. $1,320-24 is short-term resistance. In case of a break above it, we could see a test of the 4-hour cloud at $1,333. The short-term trend changes to bullish on a break above $1,338. I prefer to get bullish on gold around $1,310-$1,300 or with a break above $1,324. I expect the gold price to bounce soon.

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Trading Plan for EURUSD for April 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD H4 chart might be indicating a short-term pullback rally in the counter as expected and discussed on Friday. The pair has produced a morning star candlestick pattern on this time frame and has exceeded 1.2130 levels in terms of price action, breaking above the first interim resistance at 1.2130 levels. We are expecting a small corrective dip towards 1.2080 now, carving out a potential higher low, before extending this corrective rally through 1.2190/1.2200 levels. Aggressive short-term traders who went long on Friday as suggested can hold positions accordingly, while conservative traders should wait for another higher price to enter short again. Looking into the wave count, the pair seems to have completed waves 1,2 and 3 of the same degree now, and that wave 4 is in progression now. A safe strategy is to watch out for higher prices to sell again.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain long with stop below Friday lows.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German Consumer Price Index and US PCE Core to be out today between 08:00 AM to 08:30 AM EST.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 30 - 2018

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EUR/NZD is currently correcting the rally from 1.6671 to 1.7257. This corrective decline should continue lower to support near 1.6964 from where a new impulsive rally is expected towards 1.7474 and higher towards 1.8473 in a longer term.

The short-term resistance is seen at 1.7169, which is expected to cap the upside for the final stab lower to 1.6964.

R3: 1.7227

R2: 1.7202

R1: 1.7169

Pivot: 1.7125

S1: 1.7082

S2: 1.7052

S3: 1.6990

Trading recommendation:

Our breakeven stop at 1.7165. We will sell EUR here at 1.7136 with our stop placed at 1.7170 and take profit + revers placed at 1.6980.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30 - 2018

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We expect minor resistance near 132.51 to be able to cap the upside for a new stab lower towards the ideal target near 131.46 to complete wave i of C. In the short term, a break below minor support at 132.19 will confirm that wave iv/ has completed and wave v/ of i lower to 131.46 is developing.

R3: 132.84

R2: 132.69

R1: 132.51

Pivot: 132.19

S1: 132.03

S2: 131.85

S3: 131.46

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 132.85 with stop at breakeven. We will take half profit at 131.55.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30, 2018

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY did not make any strong directional movement last week. The price made a weak bullish effort on Monday and Tuesday, consolidated on Wednesday and then got a bearish correction on Thursday and Friday. Although the ongoing bias is bullish, bulls are obviously getting weaker and weaker, showcasing their lack of interest in pushing the price upwards.

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The recent bearish correction may eventually turn out to be something significant. A large movement is expected on EUR/JPY in May, and it would mostly favor bears. Should that occur, things would turn vividly bearish.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 30, 2018

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY sentiment is bullish. The price started rallying last month, and it rallied considerably last week. The bias on the market has thus turned completely bullish as the price neared the supply level at 109.50, and it is now close to the demand level at 109.00. However, the price may not be able to go upwards again because there is a very strong bearish outlook on JPY pairs for this week and for May 2018.

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Long positions should be liquidated because bulls will suffer seriously in May. Further downward movements would result in the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 30, 2018

USD/CHF

USD/CHF went upwards last week (gaining 150 pips). The pair has gained over 300 pips in the last two weeks and this is just the beginning because the northward journey would continue as a result of the stamina in USD. The resistance level at 0.9900 has been tested and it would be tested again, and get breached to the upside.

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There is the Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, which portends further bullish movement in favor of buyers. That is when the price would target additional resistance levels at 0.9950, and ultimately 1.0000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Bounced Nicely Off Its Support, Remain Bullish

EUR/USD bounced nicely off its support at 1.2068 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low resistance) where we expect the price to rise further to its resistance at 1.2253 (100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). We do have to be cautious of the intermediate resistance at 1.2178 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) made a corresponding bounce off its support at 2.31% where it has a lot of upside potential.

Buy above 1.2068. Stop loss 1.2007. Take profit at 1.2253.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/NZD Is Is Approaching Its Resistance, Prepare For a Reversal

AUD/NZD is approaching its resistance at 1.0730 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where we expect to see a reversal, which will make the price to fall to its support at 1.0617 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). We do have to be cautious of the intermediate support at 1.0670 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching resistance at 97% where we expect to see a corresponding reversal.

Sell below 1.0730. Stop loss at 1.0774. Take profit at 1.0617.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for April 30, 2018

The USDX has been strong in a bullish consolidation, but currently it's being capped by the resistance level of 91.25. A breakout above that area should expose the 92.62 zone as the next key level of interest for sellers. The 200 SMA continues to provide dynamic support across the board and it should give a boost to the pair's price in the near term.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 91.25 / 92.62

H1 chart's support levels: 90.46 / 89.36

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.25, take profit is at 92.62 and stop loss is at 90.86.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 30, 2018

GBP/USD was hit by a strong selling wave on Friday following the UK and US GDP releases. In the meantime, we're seeing a bullish reaction in the greenback, so a possible lower low pattern formation could happen this week. The support zone of 1.3768 should give up in order to allow a lower extension towards the 1.3707 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3838 / 1.3902

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3768 / 1.3707

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3768, take profit is at 1.3707 and stop loss is at 1.3831.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, April 30, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, German Prelim CPI m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m. The US will publish the economic data too such as Pending Home Sales m/m, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. Amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility today.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2183.

Strong Resistance:1.2176.

Original Resistance: 1.2164.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2152.

Target Inner Area: 1.2123.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2094.

Original Support: 1.2082.

Strong Support: 1.2070.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2063.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, April 30, 2018

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will publish some economic reports such as Pending Home Sales m/m, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility today.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 109.67.

Resistance. 2: 109.45.

Resistance. 1: 109.24.

Support. 1: 108.97.

Support. 2: 108.76.

Support. 3: 108.54.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar is ready to continue the rally

The dollar finished the week with an absolute favorite, helped by the positive macroeconomic data released on Friday.

The index of expenditure on personal consumption in the first quarter of 2018 grew to 2.5% against +1.9% from the quarter earlier, which indicates a steady increase in consumer demand. The simultaneous increase in employment costs by 0.8% led players to the conclusion that the growth of consumer activity has a stable base, which will be supported by outstripping growth in household incomes. Both indicators exceeded forecasts and played a decisive role in strengthening the dollar.

As for GDP growth, there was a surprise for the players - the growth rate even fell to 2.3% against 2.9% a quarter earlier, yet it was significantly higher than the forecasts.

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In addition, data showed growth of the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan to 98.8p in April, the steady growth in orders for durable goods, which supports industrial activity, and even unexpectedly strong reduction in the commodity balance deficit in March to come to a conclusion - demand for the dollar is maintained, in including, and the steady growth of the American economy, and not just the growth of geopolitical tensions.

The calendar for the next week is saturated, and the dollar may get a new impetus to growth on Monday, when the data on the price index of PCE, reflecting the dynamics of spending on personal consumption, will come out. Analysts expect growth in March to 1.8% against 1.6% in February, which will also contribute to the growth of core inflation - the main price criterion monitored by the Fed in the development of monetary policy.

On Tuesday, reports from Markit and ISM on activity in the manufacturing sector will be published, some slowdown in growth is expected, which, nevertheless, will remain confidently high.

On Wednesday, the next meeting of the FOMC will take place, which will not make any significant changes to the foreign exchange market, since it is "passing", that is, it is not accompanied by the publication of updated macroeconomic forecasts and a press conference. Attention of players will be riveted to the text of the accompanying statement, but it is unlikely to be very different from the previous one, the markets are waiting for another rate hike at the meeting in June, this step has already been fully appreciated and included in the quotations.

On Thursday, preliminary data for the 1st quarter on the labor market will be published, in particular on the growth rates of wages and productivity, as well as the ISM index for PMI in the services sector.

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The key day of the week is Friday, when the employment report for April will be released. The number of new jobs may be closer to 200 thousand after weak data for March, but the main attention will again be riveted to the growth rates of wages. Markets need to understand why, with a steady growth in the labor market, inflation remains subdued, and if they see a positive response to their questions by the end of the day, the dollar will again close the week with a confident growth.

Strengthening of the dollar occurs against the backdrop of the indecisiveness of other central banks. On Thursday and Friday, the ECB and the Bank of Japan held regular meetings respectively, following which both currencies continued to surrender their positions. The ECB directly avoided any specific instructions on the timing of the completion of the repurchase program. The Bank of Japan left the rate on negative territory and confirmed its readiness to target the yield of 10-year bonds at the near-zero level, while the statements about plans to achieve a 2% inflation target disappeared from the accompanying statement, in 2019. We add that a week earlier, Mark Carney hinted that the Bank of England would not rush to normalize, and thus, the world's largest currencies politely gave way to the dollar, offering him the continuation it rallies.

A strong dollar is not needed by the US government, since it will complicate the fight against the budget deficit, but, apparently, this is inevitable at the current stage.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Strong dollar is not a hindrance to crude oil

Oil prices finished the week with a confident growth. June futures for Brent reached $75/ barrel, and there are all prerequisites to the fact that the growth will continue, as most of the factors affecting the quotes are openly bullish.

Until quite recently, only optimists were positive regarding the prospect of the OPEC + agreement. The grounds for this were really serious - everyone knows that the compliance rate of the OPEC members has always been at a very low level, and with the decline in oil quotes, the chances of being able to persuade them to synchronize the extraction at the same time in the face of an acute shortage of foreign exchange resources looked utopian. However, time has shown that skeptics have underestimated the determination of OPEC +, which managed to achieve all the stated objectives, and moreover, there are rumors about the preparation of a longer agreement, calculated with a horizon of 10 or even 20 years.

Undoubtedly, this factor played in favor of bulls, but there was one more factor, which even recently seemed even more important than the OPEC + deal. This is a record increase in production in the US, which not only reached the position of a world leader, but also announced plans to close the falling volumes from OPEC +.

So, there are several puzzles with oil shale, and the first of them follows directly from the chart below.

On Friday, the first preliminary data on GDP in the first quarter was published, among others there were figures on investments in the oil industry.

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Indeed, three quarters in a row there has been an increase in investments, but this growth is just a rollback from a record decline in 2016, and at the moment the investment volume is at the level of 2 square meters in 2011, that is, certainly below the peak values of 2014. In order to justify a record growth in production, this amount of investment is clearly insufficient, especially given the short life of shale wells.

Employment in the sector and in general came in at a fantastically low level, corresponding to the levels seen in December 2007, and this is against the backdrop of the recovery of the labor market.

So, record growth in oil production in the US occurs against a background of low investment, a record low employment in the sector and an increase in production costs in shale fields due to the depletion of wells drilled between 2014-2016. This is the number one mystery.

The second riddle we will find if we consider the dynamics of cargo transportation of oil and petroleum products according to the Association of American Railways. A decline in traffic up to 4 square meters in 2017 is understandable and is associated with the overall stagnation of the sector, but growth in the past 6 months is negligible and significantly less than in 2015 and 2016, when production was significantly lower. How can one explain the simultaneous increase in oil production to record levels, a full load of oil refining industries and a low level of freight traffic?

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Все эти загадки получают свое разрешение, если принять во внимание особенности статистического учета. В последние полгода компании сдают в качестве текущей добычи запасы нефти на промыслах, то есть добытые в прошлые периоды. All these puzzles will be clarified, if one would take into account the features of statistical accounting. In the past six months, companies are handing out oil reserves in the fields, that is, mined in the past, as current production. This made it possible to show record production, but at the same time, it reduced the global level of reserves, which in the short run will help to increase oil prices rather than decrease, as the achievement of a global balance can happen more quickly.

As for geopolitical factors, they are in favor of further growth of quotations. The International Monetary Fund predicts a steady growth in the world economy, with the highest rates being recorded in countries that are major importers of raw materials. The International Energy Agency reports an increase in oil consumption in 2017 by 1.6%, which is a record for the last 10 years, and already by 2019 the agency predicts an oil shortage.

Both investors and analysts are waiting for further oil growth - the fundamental factors are clearly bullish. The technical picture indicates the danger of correction to the support of 70.20/70.40 in the coming week, after which the growth will most likely resume.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com