#USDX Technical analysis for October 31, 2014

The Dollar index after back testing the break out area at 86 yesterday, has managed to stage another rally towards previous highs which are now being tested. The trend is bullish and I remain bullish following the bullish flag pattern I have posted several times before.


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The Dollar index has moved back above the Ichimoku cloud and after back testing the 85.20 support it bounced strongly upwards with the FOMC on Wednesday. Thursday, we saw a consolidation of this strong break out and a pull back to test the 86 break out level. Today, we see the Dollar index challenging the highs at 86.75. I remain bullish the Dollar targetig 91.


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Once again, I post the daily chart with the clear bullish flag formation targeting 91. The trend is clearly bullish as price is above the Ichimoku cloud and is making higher highs and higher lows. This upward move is expected to continue higher towards 91 which is my 1st target. Stop for long positions should be the 85.20 level.


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Gold Technical analysis for October 31, 2014

Gold price as expected has broken $1,200 and the huge support has set at $1,180. The bearish trend remains strong both in the short- and long-term. Our longer-term target remains at $1,050 as I have been saying for so long. The trend is down and now that we have broken below the triple bottom, the selling pressures should push Gold price much lower.


goldh4.jpg

Red line = support broken


Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and has extended the decline after my sell signal at $1,220. Now below the triple bottom at $1,180, the road is open for a steeper decline towards $1,100 first and lower in the future. Trend is clearly down and any bounce should be sold. Resistance is found at $1,200 and $1,220.


gold.jpg

Blue line =resistance


Black line= support


In the weekly chart as shown above we finally see the triple bottom being broken. The weekly resistance level at $1,237 was tested and price got rejected as bulls could not close a week above it. This was a clear bearish sign and that is why I said in my analysis that the upward bounce from $1,180 to $1,255 was over. The trend is down and heavy selling is expected to follow in this market to new lows. Breaking such a bearish formation has many chances of succes for short positions.


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Review on USD/CHF for October 31, 2014

Stronger US data pushed the pair above 6-day high. In yesterday's session, we recommend buying above 0.9562 with the targets at 0.9600 an 0.9625. The pair made a high at 0.9610. We can expect a bigger upswing above 0.9625 the 80.0 fib level towards 0.9685 and 0.9726 on a positional basis. On the down side, the pair has support at 0.9510 20Dsma. Below 0.9510, the ascending trend line will provide enough support to push the prices higher. In case the prices close below the ascending trend line, the base support 0.9400 will act as strong support. The pair has been trading in a 160 pips range. For an intraday session, the pair has support at 0.9540. In case the pair closes above 0.9576 on a daily basis, it can challenge 100 pips more on the upper side. For an hourly basis, above 0.9576 we can expect good momentum towards 0.9590, 0.9610, and 0.9625 levels.


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Trading recommendation on Gold for October 31, 2014

The yellow metal drifted below $1,200.00 after the upbeat US data. The metal closed below $1,200.00 after 18- sessions. On the downside, the metal has support at $1,193.00 and $1,190.80. Today, gold opened on a minor bullish note. The daily Stochastic is indicating oversold. The metal settled at a 4-week low. In the h4 chart, the prices are making minor support base at $1,198.00 levels. We recommend selling below $1,198.00; strong selling pressure is below $1,293.00 levels. On the upside, it has resistance at $1,202.80, above this at $1,207.40 or 12hr high, $1,208.50 or 12ema, and $1,210.50 or 35DEMA. The hourly momentum oscillators favor to pull back. We recommend buying above $1,203.00 with the immediate target at $1,207.00, above this at $1,208.50, $1,210.00 levels are possible. In yesterday's session, we recommended selling with sl $1,216.00 with the target of $1,200.00 which gave good money. The metal favors selling on every rise. Today, the selling range exists at $1,207.50-$1,208.50 sl $1,210.50, the target at $1,200.00 levels. As we recommended in our earlier articles, the longer-term picture favors bears with the target at 800.00 and in the short term at $1,180.00 and $1,150.00 levels.


Trade:


Selling below $1,198.00


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Technical Analysis on USD/CAD for October 31, 2014

The pair has been consolidating for the last two days. The pair is trading in a narrow range between the 1.1223 and 1.1166 levels. The prices tried to breach the 20Dsma on the upside, but unable to close above that. Today, traders are keeping an eye on Canadian GBP data. We recommend buying with sl 1.1166 with the targets at 1.1213, 1.1223, and 1.1250. Bulls will regain strength in case the pair closes above the 1.1223 levels. We can see a strong upswing only above 1.1300. Until the prices close below 1.1300, we can see mixed returns on a weekly basis. In the daily chart, the Stochastic is indicating a buying signal. But the prices are obeyed to the descending trend line in the daily chart. These factors represent the mixed views. For an Intraday view, we can expect a strong upswing above 1.1210 levels or 34hrsma. The pair looks weak below 1.1166, we recommend selling below 1.1160 with the targets at 1.1150, 1.1137, and 1.1120 levels.


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Trading recommendation on EUR/USD for October 31, 2014

The pair drifted to the previous low's on an intraday basis, but at the end of the day it recovered most of its losses. The pair managed to closed above 1.2600 levels. In the current month, only one trading left. To regain mild strength today, bulls must close above the 1.2631 levels. On the down side, the pair has major support at 1.2500, below this panic will be triggered. As we recommended on the October 28th article, selling below 1.2660 gave good money. For the longer-term view, we still recommend selling on every up move for a down side with the target at 1.2220 initially, later at 1.20 and maybe 1.1875. For an Intraday view, we recommend selling below 1.2595 with the targets at 1.2585, 1.2575, 1.2550, and 1.2510. The pair has hourly support at 1.2597 35DEMA, resistance exists at 1.2632. We can see a minor upswing in case if the pair breaches above 1.2632. We recommend buying above 1.2635 with the targets at the 1.2653 and 1.2660 levels. Selling on every rise will mint the money.


Trade: Selling below 1.2595


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 31, 2014

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Trading recommendations :



  • We expect that the trend of EUR/USD is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 0.2707 in H1 chart. Additionally, it should be noted that the range today will be about 95 pips. Thereupon, sell at the price of 1.2707-1.2646 with the first target of 1.2550, it might resume to 1.2481in order to test the weekly support. At the same time, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.2728 level.


Review :



  • The price hit the weekly support 1 resistance 1 and pivot point this week.

  • The major support is going to set at 1.2481 on October 31, 2014.

  • The level of 1.2707 is representing the weekly pivot point, it will act as strong resistance today.

  • Hence, according to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.2510 and 1.2647.

  • So, we expect a range between 113 pips and 184 pips this week.

  • Therefore, it will be very useful to sell below the price of 1.2707 in the long term with the first target at 1.2546 in order to test the double bottom. But if the trend is able to break the double bottom at 1.2546, then it might resume to the level of 1.2481.


Notes :



  • If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: EUR is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

  • The double bottom will set at the level of 1.2500 and this level is going to represent the ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement level in H1 chart.

  • The minor support is going to set at 1.2546.

  • The major support had already set at the price of 1.2481. Moreover, the double bottom also coincides with the major support.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31, 2014

General overview for 31/10/2014 08:20 CET


After the fundamental news release from Japan, this market spiked way much higher, breaking the supply zon and technical resistance. For now, it has stopped just shy of the longer term golden trendline that can be seen on this H4 time frame chart. If we take a look a little closer, we might see the upward progression in three waves so far. It has hit the next Fibo extension at the level of 138.89 (161%(a)=(c)). Currently, two scenarios are possible: either this wave up will continue to the golden trendline and then reverse, or the market is loosing steam already and some corrective cycle to the downside is needed.


Support/Resistance:


141.20 - Swing High


140.20 - Golden Trend Line Resistance


139.89 - 161%Fibo Level


138.01 - Untested Breakout Level


Trading recommendations:


Day traders and swing traders should refrain from trading until clear pattern will emerge.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair has hit extension at 138.70/80 levels and has surged beyond 139.50 for now. It is recommended to book profits on the remaining long positions taken earlier and remain flat for now. Resistance is seen at 140.30, followed by 141.30 and higher while support is seen at 137.00, followed by 135.00 and lower respectively. The pair could possibly look to reverse from the current levels but a bearish signal confirmation is awaited. The pair has hit fibonacci 0.786 resistance level at 139.75 for now. A bearish reversal signal confirmation would bring back bears into action.


Trading recommendations:


Book full profits on long positions taken earlier. Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 31, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair is testing resistance at the 1.5350 levels as seen here. Please note that this region is also fibonacci 0.681 and past support turned resistance confluence. High probability remains that the pair could reverse from the current levels, hence recommendations are to remain short, risk is above 1.5450 levels. Support is seen at 1.5200, followed by 1.5100, 1.4975, while resistance is seen at 1.5450, followed by 1.5555 respectively. Bears are expected to regain control shortly, but a push through 1.5450 levels would certainly delay matters. Going below 1.5200 levels would accelerate the fall below 1.4975 in the sessions to come.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, stop above 1.5450, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for October 31, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver made yet another low at $16.35 levels yesterday barely hitting stops placed at $16.40 levels. Both precious metals are diverging at the moment (Silver is making a low while Gold is not). This could be an early indication of a major reversal. Support (interim) is at $16.00, followed by $15.60 on the weekly chart, while resistance is seen at $17.60, followed by $17.80/18.00, and higher respectively. It is recommended to remain flat for now and await for a bullish reversal/confirmation. Traders should refrain from going short on Silver at current levels. A break of $17.60 on the top side would confirm a reversal now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 31, 2014

!EURUSD.jpg When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Retail Sales m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate, and Italian Prelim CPI m/m. The US will also release the economic data such as the Core PCE Price Index m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2669.

Strong Resistance:1.2661.

Original Resistance: 1.2649.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2637.

Target Inner Area: 1.2607.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2577.

Original Support: 1.2565.

Strong Support: 1.2553.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2545.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 31, 2014

!USDJPY.jpg In Asia, Japan will release the Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, Unemployment Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Housing Starts y/y, and BOJ Outlook Report. Besides,

the US will also release some economic data such as Core PCE Price Index m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.88.

Resistance. 2: 109.66.

Resistance. 1: 109.45.

Support. 1: 109.18.

Support. 2: 108.97.

Support. 3: 108.75.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of USDX for October 31, 2014

The USDX has reached the level of 86.01, where this instrument has a fractal formed as part of the development of the current higher high pattern. However, the USDX is trying to make a breakout at the level of 86.40 to move up to the resistance level of 86.75. But we should have caution because the USDX could make a breakout at the support level of 86.01, so you can resume later the bearish trend in the H4 chart. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.


USDXH4.png

H4 chart's resistance levels: 86.75 / 87.00


H4chart's support levels: 86.01 / 85.06


On the H1 chart, the USDX was able to touch the resistance level of 86.40, but quickly, this instrument made a pullback to that area. Now, this pattern is forming a lower low below the resistance level of 86.17. However, the USDX would be performing corrective movements in favor of the current bullish trend in this instrument, but there is still the possibility that the USDX tries a breakout at the support level of 85.95 and falling to the level of 85.93. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 86.17 / 86.40


H1 chart's support levels: 85.95 / 85.73


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.27, take profit is at 85.03, and stop loss is at 85.49.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 31, 2014

The GBP/USD pair is trying to form a bearish pattern below the resistance level of 1.6004. This pair could fall in the coming hours to the support level of 1.5951, while this currency pair could make a bullish retracement above the resistance level of 1.6051. If successful, the next target would be the bearish trend line at the 1.6110 level which is close to the 200 SMA. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, and this pair is likely to move in range during the session today.


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H4chart's resistance levels: 1.6004 / 1.6051


H4chart's support levels: 1.5951 / 1.5874


On the H1 chart, we can see that this pair has found strong support at the level of 1.5980, so that GBP/USD may begin to form a lower low pattern. If GBP/USD manages to support a breakout at that level, this pair could drop to the 1.5925 level, marking a new low. However, the GBP/USD pair still remains next to the SMA 200. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought zone.


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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6031 / 1.6075


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5980 / 1.5925


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5980, take profit is at 1.5925, and stop loss is at 1.6035.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 30, 2014

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Two weeks ago, the EUR/USD pair looked oversold before the bullish engulfing daily candlestick emerged off price level of 1.2500.


The origin of the bullish engulfing pattern (around 1.2600) previously provided a good BUY position as suggested in previous articles.


The upper limit of the movement channel (1.2880-1.2900) was targeted. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840.


This allowed a bearish breakout off the current bullish channel to take place. This probably confirms a Flag continuation pattern. Initial daily target level would be located around 1.2490.


As expected, the EUR/USD pair remained under bearish pressure since no fixation above 1.2760-1.2780 took place on a daily basis.


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A valid BUY position was previously suggested around the neckline of the bullish Head and Shoulders pattern (price level of 1.2660).


Last week on Wednesday, the market expressed quite strong bearish momentum that pushed below the lower limit of the previous bullish channel.


Bears have successfully pushed towards price zone of 1.2600-1.2620 (the lower limit of the newly established bearish channel).


As anticipated, around this price zone, bullish recovery was expressed at retesting of the lower limit. Bulls were able to push towards 1.2760 ( the upper limit of the channel ).


Price levels around 1.2750 provided a valid SELL entry as suggested in previous articles.


Recommendation:


Price level of 1.2750 corresponded to the upper limit of the newly established channel depicted on the chart.


A valid SELL entry was anticipated around 1.2730-1.2760. It's running in profits now. Stop Loss can be lowered to 1.2700 to offside some risk.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 30, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 108.97 on Wednesday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.98 versus 85.41 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve confirmed the end of its monthly bond-buying program and delivered a slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement as it offered a relatively optimistic assessment of the outlook for the U.S. labor market and economy. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.321% versus 2.284% late Tuesday), demand from Japan's importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales, selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 5.28% to 15.15, S&P 500 closed 0.14% lower at 1,982.3 overnight) as the Fed's latest policy statement renewed concerns over higher interest rates.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.30 and the second target at 109.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.90. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.55. The pivot point is at 108.35.


Resistance levels:

109.30

109.55

109.90


Support levels:

107.90

107.55

107.35


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 30, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a three-week low 0.7766 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the less-hawkish-than-expected Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy statement as the central bank kept interest rates on hold at 3.5%. The RBNZ has shifted, removing the mild tightening bias and implicitly making the next policy move open-ended, Citigroup says. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive USD sentiment and Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid the subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical comment:

Daily is chart mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is reverted to bearish mode, bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7805. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7760. The pivot point stands at 0.7880. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7810 and the second target at 0.7855.


Resistance levels:

0.7910

0.7955

0.7990

Support levels:


0.7805

0.7760

0.7735


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