The focus of the market is not only the topic of US-Chinese negotiations, but also the publication of statistics from the

Today, the attention of the investors will be focused to the publication of data on the American economy, as well as to statements by members of the ECB, RBA and Fed.

Market participants are trying to move away from the topic of US-Chinese negotiations, which are so tired of their unpredictability of the result, but most importantly, their strong influence on decisions on monetary policies of leading Central Banks, as well as a general dominance over the desire of investors to buy risky assets. Here, after a slight optimism that spread over the markets last week, it is already in a very dissolved form again this week, in the wake of the existing serious contradictions between the parties to the negotiation process.

The stumbling block which is on the Chinese side is the desire for the Americans to abolish previously established high duties on Chinese imports. Washington, in turn, demands a concrete agreement on food imports by China. So far, it seems that the parties are unable to agree, which causes waves of discontent both from D. Trump personally and from representatives of Beijing.

It can be said with great confidence that the persistence of these problems will have a swinging effect on financial markets, contributing to a high level of volatility.

Moreover, today, the markets will carefully listen to the speeches of the head of the RBA Lowe and his deputy Debell. They want to hear from them the regulator's plans for the foreseeable future, which could have a significant impact on the Australian currency. In addition, comments by ECB representatives Kere and De Saguin are also expected. It will be interesting since they will be the first to go after the last speech of the ECB President C. Lagarde. Therefore, investors will be interested in the topic of the monetary policy of the regulator for the coming year. On the American side, a speech by Fed member Brainard is expected.

From the important economic data, we highlight the publication of the Conference Board consumer confidence index and the value of new home sales in the United States. Consumer confidence is expected to rise in November to 127.0 points from 125.9 points. At the same time, sales of new housing is expected to also increase to 709,000 from 701,000. It can be assumed that if the values do not disappoint, this will provide local support for the US dollar and cause a new wave of growth in demand for risky assets in the States.

Forecast of the day:

EUR/USD remains under pressure amid strong data on the US economy and the uncertainty of the ECB's future monetary policy. We consider it possible to resume selling the pair in its local recovery, if it holds below the level of 1.1015 with a likely target of 1.0975.

The price of gold is correcting upward in the wake of the continuing contradictions in trade between the United States and China. Quotes of the "yellow metal" can recover to 1461.80 if they break the level of 1457.45. More so, we consider it possible to resume its sales from the level of 1461.80 with a local target of 1445.30.

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Markets are rising on the optimistic news, but a reversal is approaching. The euro is neutral with a bearish bias and the

On Monday, major US stock indices closed at new record levels, primarily due to a number of corporate news about mergers / acquisitions. In addition, positive news was added by reports of a conversation between Liu Hye, China's chief trade negotiator, US sales representative Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. According to the Chinese side, "consensus has been reached on the proper resolution of relevant issues." That is, it can be assumed that no sharp unilateral steps will be taken.

On the other hand, Powell's speech last night contained nothing new and was ignored by the markets.

As of Tuesday morning, positive growth is noticeable, but it is limited and has not yet led to movement in the currency exchange and commodity markets.

EUR/USD

The expected pullback did not happen - In Germany, the Ifo business optimism indices for November are at the same levels as a month ago. The manufacturing index, in turn, declined again after slight increase a month ago, as companies note a very low level of current orders and plan to further reduce production. In the services sector, the situation is slightly better, but expectations have been in negative territory for four months in a row. The same situation is also considered in the construction sector.

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The only one who feels confident is the sphere of trade, which is understandable due to the fact that Christmas is approaching, however, trading optimism is clearly not enough to hope for a reversal. The euro fell during the European session on Monday, responding to weak Ifo, as well as confirming the weak PMI published on Friday. Meanwhile, the German economy barely escaped a technical recession in the 3rd quarter; the lack of fiscal stimulus is already clearly holding back economic growth.

At the same time, ECB's head Lagarde announced last Friday that there will be an upcoming monetary policy review. According to her, the ECB will find out what is the relationship between low interest rates and potential negative side effects. Lagarde's position probably indicates a possible revision of the ECB's plans, which, due to growing uncertainty, puts pressure on the euro.

Technically, the euro remains under pressure. The support 1.0988 has resisted, so there is a chance of a pullback to the zone 1.1050 / 65, where sales are highly likely to be resumed.

GBP/USD

The UK PMI index fell to 48.6p in November, steadily falling into negative territory. The composite index reached a 40-month low and there is no doubt that business activity is on the decline. Given the correlation of PMI with output, one should expect a decline in GDP's growth rates.

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The pound remains to be a hostage to the political situation, focusing primarily on forecasts for the results of the general elections on December 12. Regardless of whether Johnson wins, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the Bank of England should prepare for a decisive action to stimulate the economy, as the situation is developing in a negative way.

The Bank of England, in turn, continues to take a break, waiting for the Brexit saga to end. The endless postponements of the final decision to reduce the time for making a decision, and increase the chances that BoE does not start with a symbolic reduction in the rate of a quarter point, but immediately proposes a comprehensive plan that combines both the reduction in the rate and the buyback of assets, and, possibly, some other measures.

Therefore, the market takes into account the probability of the pound falling after such drastic measures, but proceeds from the fact that BoE will be ready to announce a plan to support the economy at a meeting in March and not earlier, since it will take time after leaving the EU on January 31. Accordingly, in the short term, the pound feels confident and will focus on the growth of the Tories' chances to win the election.

Technically, the pound is trading in the range on Tuesday morning. The forecast is neutral with a slight margin of bullish sentiment. An attempt to develop growth above 1.2890 with an eye on 1.2950 is likely, but the chances of reaching 1.30 are still pretty small. Support 1.2840 / 60, with a decline to which, buying in the expectation of a resumption of growth can be considered.

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EUR/UUSD Risk Levels 26, 2019

Good morning to all!

Here the risk levels to monitor on EUR/USD are presented (1.1013 now).

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On the downside, watch out the 1.10 level, yesterday low and be ready for a fast testing of last week lows in the 1.0990 area. Only a serious breakdown of this level will bring more weakness.

On the upside, 1.1020 would mean a test / break of the ST trend: only over 1.1030 we could be confident in a sustained upward movement.

Stay Safe

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 26 - 2019

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EUR/JPY has rallied as expected. However, the pair stalled at the short-term key-resistance 120.30. Therefore, it keeps the minor corrective downtrend intact. It is a matter of time before the next attempt for a break will occur. A break above 120.30 may support the growth of the pair to 121.45 and 123.55.

Strong support is seen at 119.62. It is expected to protect the downside for the next attempt to break above 120.30.

R3: 120.64

R2: 120.39

R1: 120.30

Pivot: 120.13

S1: 119.94

S2: 119.79

S3: 119.62

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.30. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 120.30 and use the same stop at 119.30

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 26 - 2019

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The GBP/JPY pair has rallied as expected and broken through the corrective downtrend line from 141.57. In the short-term, we could see a minor set-back close to 139.75 before the next rally higher through resistance at 140.73. A break should accelerate the rally towards 143.19 and 144.58.

The support level is see at 140.03 and strong support at 139.75.

R3: 141.58

R2: 141.10

R1: 140.73

Pivot: 140.51

S1: 140.03

S2: 139.75

S3: 139.47

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 139.30.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 26. Upward correction of the pound may result in new sales

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, pound buyers coped with all the tasks after good polls in the UK, which indicated the Conservative Party's leadership. At the moment, trading is conducted above the support of 1.2892, and the formation of a false breakout in the first half of the day can lead to a new growth of GBP/USD with the renewal of highs around 1.2927 and 1.2959. However, such a wave requires good news from the election race. If bulls lose the support of 1.2829 in the morning, then I recommend to postpone long positions until the level of 1.2861 is updated, or buy immediately for a rebound in the region of the low of 1.2829, where GBP/USD buyers will try to form a new lower boundary for the ascending channel.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

It is enough for sellers to return the pair to support at 1.2892 in the morning, which will make pound buyers nervous and take profits. Against this background, GBP/USD will slowly return to the low of 1.2861, which large players will try to break through to ensure that the pair decreases to a support of 1.2829, where I already recommend profit taking, as new buyers will begin their active actions there. In the scenario of the continuation of the current upward correction, which may result in a full trend, the bears will be noticeable in the resistance area of 1.2927, where you can open short positions only if a false breakout is formed. I recommend selling immediately for a rebound only after a test of a high of 1.2959.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, and the bears need to move the pair below the averages to return the downward wave.

Bollinger bands

The first attempt at sales will be restrained by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2875. A break of the upper boundary in the area of 1.2915 may lead to a new wave of GBP/USD growth.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 26th. Break of support at 1.1008 will lead to a new wave of decline in

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Weak volatility and several unsuccessful attempts of euro buyers to return to the market, even against the backdrop of good reports from Ifo, make us think about the further prospect of an upward correction in the pair. Today, all of the buyer's attention will be focused on the resistance of 1.1031, since only consolidating above this level will lead to a larger upward correction to the areas of 1.1059 and 1.1088, where I recommend profit taking. However, it is hardly possible to count on such growth in the morning, as good news on the eurozone economy is not expected. Under the scenario of further downward movement, the bulls will do their best to cling to the support of 1.1008, however only the formation of a false breakout there will be a buy signal. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions on a rebound from a low of 1.0989.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, bears tried to push the support of 1.1008 several times, but this could not be done. Today's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also did not allow the resumption of the downward trend in EUR/USD. The main task for the first half of the day is still the level of 1.1008, since only its breakthrough will lead to a new wave of decline in the euro with updating lows in the areas of 1.0989 and 1.0972, where I recommend profit taking. If there is no bearish activity in the morning near the low of 1.1008, it is best to postpone the sale of the euro until a larger resistance of 1.1031 is updated, subject to a false breakout, or open short positions immediately to rebound from a high of 1.1059.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1005 will provide sellers with the necessary forces, which will lead to another wave of a decline in the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Control zones for EUR/USD on 11/26/19

The downward movement led to a breakdown and consolidation below the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.1025-1.1018. This makes it possible to consider any growth as an opportunity to search for favorable prices for the sale of an instrument. On the other hand, the sales area starts from yesterday's maximum and reaches the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 1.1043-1.1040. However, the ascending model is considered not implemented.

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The target of the fall is the weekly control zone 1.0953-1.0939. It coincides with the zone of monthly volatility, which makes it determining in November.

An alternative growth model and the formation of a medium-term accumulation zone will require the closure of today's trading above the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 1.1043-1.1040. This will allow you to consider selling at better prices in the second half of the week. The probability of implementing this model is below 30%, which makes it an auxiliary.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones GBPUSD 11/26/19

Today the pair is trading near the resistance zone of WCZ 1/4 1.2927-1.2918. If the test of this zone leads to an increase in supply and the false breakout pattern of yesterday's high is formed, then this will be an ideal place to sell the instrument. The first goal of the decline is last week's low, where the fate of the medium-term flat is determined.

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Work in a downward direction from the upper boundary of the flat is a priority. This makes it possible to minimize possible losses and increase the ratio of profit to stop.

An alternative model will be developed if the WCZ 1/4 test leads to a consolidation above and the closure of today's US session above. In this case, the test of the upper boundary of the medium-term accumulation zone will come to the fore, where it is also necessary to consider the false breakout pattern.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBPUSD...You good boy!

A very short post, about the Cable.

Just a few weeks ago, it has been in the middle of everybody's attention with all that Brexit drama going on: while traders were more cautios amid the US-China trade deal uncertainty, the pairs moved higher.

If we look at some long term chart, GBPUSD is one of the most interesting cross among the majors. Have a look at the weekly one and at how that downtrend was reduced to dust:

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Stay Safe

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 26,2019

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When the European market opens, a report on German GfK Consumer Climate is due. The US will release such economic data as New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Goods Trade Balance. So, amid the reports,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1064. Strong Resistance: 1.1058. Original Resistance: 1.1047. Inner Sell Area: 1.1036. Target Inner Area: 1.1010. Inner Buy Area: 1.0984. Original Support: 1.0973. Strong Support: 1.0962. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0956. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, November 26,2019

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Japan will unveil such macroeconomic statistics as the BOJ Core CPI y/y and SPPI y/y.The US will publish such economic data as New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, HPI m/m, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, and Goods Trade Balance. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:109.68. Resistance. 2:109.48. Resistance. 1:109.27. Support. 1:108.97. Support. 2:108.76. Support. 3:108.56. (Disclaimer)

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 26, 2019

GBP/USD

The expected consolidation of the British pound has developed into a full correction. Yesterday, the pound at its peak of growth blocked Friday's decline, the daily increase was 64 points. The signal line of the oscillator is kept in the zone of negative values, which does not yet allow us to consider the current increase as a restoration of growth or even as the development of wide-range consolidation with the formation of the fourth peak. Nevertheless, if the price consolidates above 1.2990, the Marlin oscillator is very likely to be in the growth zone, and the price will go to the resistance of the green line of the price channel, in the area of 1.3158.

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If the current growth really turns out to be a correction, then after its completion the pound expects a sharp and deep decline, since the fourth peak is extremely rare in the market, and it is unlikely that this time it will be formed by a leisurely price movement. The goals remain the same: 1.2703, 1.2608, 1.2360.

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On the H4 chart, the price is in the consolidation range on November 20-22, limited by Fibonacci levels of 61.8% and 76.4%. Price development occurs below the balance line, this may be one of the signs of a price reversal in this range. The Marlin signal line is close to the boundary with the growth territory, but still in the negative zone, which can also serve as a technical reversal condition.

We are waiting for the development of events.

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Control zones for AUD/USD on 11/26/19

After testing the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6837-0.6831, we obtained favorable selling prices. Meanwhile, a short position can be continued, however, profit should be partially fixed, as the pair approached the minimum of November. This increases the probability of large demand, which will lead to the formation of a local accumulation zone.

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In the case of accumulation, the main resistance will continue the zone tested last week by the Weekly Control Zone 1/2. Thus, repeated sales will come to the fore.

If today's growth does not exceed yesterday, then the resumption of the fall will update November's minimum, and the target of the fall will be Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6739-0.6733. The probability of reaching this goal is 75%, which suggests repeated sales when forming a pattern in the direction of the pair falling.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 26, 2019

AUD/USD

On the daily chart, the price of the Australian dollar was consolidated below the MACD indicator line. The line itself, as an indicator of a trend, turns down. The aussie's current goal will be to support the embedded line of the price channel at around 0.6743. After consolidating the price under this mark, AUD/USD expects a mid-term decline to the lower line of the price channel around 0.6566, the movement may take about two weeks.

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On the four-hour chart, the situation is completely falling: the price has consolidated under the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is falling in the territory of the bears.

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#USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY - DAILY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 26, 2019. APLs &

It is the last week of autumn - what's next? Variants of movement of the main currency instruments - #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY - DAILY in a comprehensive form on November 26, 2019

Minor operational scale (Daily time frame)

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US dollar Index

From November 26, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level 98.65 - 1/2 Median Line Minor;
  • support level 98.30 - the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minor.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level 98.65 by 1/2 Median Line Minor, the movement of the dollar index can continue to the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (99.00) of the Minor operational scale forks and the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (99.20 - 99.60 - 100.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level 98.30) of the Minor operational scale fork will make it urgent to resume the downward movement of #USDX to the SSL start line (98.05) of the Minuette operational scale fork and to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (97.55 - 96.90 - 96.30) Minor operational scale fork.

The markup of #USDX movement options from November 26, 2019 is shown on the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1055 (initial line SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 1.0980 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel);

will determine the further development trend of the movement of the single European currency EUR/USD from November 26, 2019

The breakdown of the support level of 1.0980 will determine the development of the EUR / USD movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.0980 - 1.0935 - 1.0890) and the equilibrium zone (1.0890 - 1.0845 - 1.0790) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Meanwhile, the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1055 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks) will determine the development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the goals: the control line UTL Minuette (1.1105) - the 1/2 Median Line Minor (1.1130) - local maximum 1.1180, with the prospect of reaching the upper limit of ISL38 .2 (1.1405) equilibrium zones of the Minor operational scale forks

The details of the EUR / USD movement options from November 26, 2019 are shown on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Starting November 26, 2019, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement will continue based on the breakdown direction of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2925 (1/2 Median Line Minor);
  • support level of 1.2850 (the initial line of SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks).

The break of the support level 1.2850 (the starting line of the SSL Minuette operational scale forks) - a variant of the downward movement of GBP / USD to the lower boundary ISL38.2 (1.2735) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks and the breakdown thereof, it will be possible for the instrument to reach the price boundaries channel 1/2 Median Line (1.2510 - 1.2380 - 1.2240) and equilibrium zones (1.2330 - 1.2170 - 1.2010) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Consecutive breakdown of resistance levels :

- 1.2925 - 1/2 Median Line Minor;

- 1.2955 - control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- 1.3011 - local maximum;

will make it possible to continue the development of the upward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (1.3130) of the equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks with the prospect of updating maximum 1.3630.

The details of the GBP/USD movement from November 26, 2019 can be seen on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY from November 26, 2019 will also depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 109.30 (1/2 Median Line Minor);
  • support level of 108.85 (starting line SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks).

Combined breakdown of resistance levels :

- 109.30 - 1/2 Median Line Minor;

- 109.55 - control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks;

will make it possible to develop the movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" to the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (110.30) of the equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks with the prospect of updating maximum 112.42.

On the other hand, the breakdown of the support level of 108.85 (the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks) will direct the movement of USD / JPY to the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (108.25) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale forks, during which the breakdown of the downward movement of this currency instrument can continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channels of the Minuette operational scale forks (107.70 - 107.10 - 106.50) and Minor (107.10 - 106.30 - 105.55).

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

analytics5ddc962538a85.jpg

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on November 26

Forecast for November 26:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1053, 1.1034, 1.1023, 1.1004, 1.0986, 1.0977 and 1.0957. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of November 21. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1004. In this case, the target is 1.0986. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.0986 - 1.0977. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0957. Upon reaching this value, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1023 - 1.1034. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1053. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1023 Take profit: 1.1034

Buy: 1.1036 Take profit: 1.1050

Sell: 1.1004 Take profit: 1.0988

Sell: 1.0975 Take profit: 1.0958

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2969, 1.2932, 1.2899, 1.2817, 1.2765, 1.2710 and 1.2671. Here, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the downward cycle of November 21. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2817. In this case, the target is 1.2765. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.2765 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2710. For a potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2671. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2899 - 1.2932. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 1.2969.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of November 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2900 Take profit: 1.2930

Buy: 1.2933 Take profit: 1.2969

Sell: 1.2815 Take profit: 1.2770

Sell: 1.2763 Take profit: 1.2710

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0039, 1.0023, 1.0000, 0.9988, 0.9956, 0.9938 and 0.9919. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 18. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 0.9988 - 1.0000. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.0023. We consider the level of 1.0039 to be a potential value for the top; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9956 - 0.9938. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9919.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9988 Take profit: 1.0000

Buy : 1.0003 Take profit: 1.0023

Sell: 0.9956 Take profit: 0.9940

Sell: 0.9937 Take profit: 0.9920

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.53, 109.36, 109.12, 108.91, 108.73, 108.57 and 108.26. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of November 21. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, are expected in the range of 108.91 - 109.12. The breakdown of the level of 109.12 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 109.36. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.53. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, is expected in the range 108.73 - 108.57. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 108.26.

The main trend: the formation of the ascending structure of November 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.13 Take profit: 109.34

Buy : 109.37 Take profit: 109.53

Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.60

Sell: 108.54 Take profit: 108.30

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3404, 1.3387, 1.3355, 1.3334, 1.3298, 1.3278 and 1.3250. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 19. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3334 - 1.3355. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3387. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3387 - 1.3404, and from here, we expect a correction.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 1.3298 - 1.3278. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3250. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 19, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3335 Take profit: 1.3355

Buy : 1.3357 Take profit: 1.3385

Sell: 1.3276 Take profit: 1.3252

Sell: 1.3248 Take profit: 1.3220

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6833, 0.6814, 0.6799, 0.6787, 0.6767, 0.6748, 0.6735 and 0.6717. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of November 19. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6765. In this case, we expect a pronounced movement to the level of 0.6748. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6748 - 0.6735. We consider the level of 0.6717 to be a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this value, we expect a correction.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6787 - 0.6799. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6814. This level is a key support for the downward trend.

The main trend is a local descending structure of November 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6787 Take profit: 0.6797

Buy: 0.6800 Take profit: 0.6814

Sell : 0.6766 Take profit : 0.6750

Sell: 0.6746 Take profit: 0.6736

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.12, 120.58, 120.35, 120.11, 119.60, 119.31, 118.96, 118.70 and 118.38. Here, we are following the formation of the downward structure of November 21. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 119.60 - 119.31. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 118.96. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 118.96 - 118.70. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 118.38. Upon reaching this value, rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 120.11 - 120.35. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a local structure for the top. Here, the first goal is 120.58.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of November 21

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.11 Take profit: 120.33

Buy: 120.36 Take profit: 120.58

Sell: 119.60 Take profit: 119.34

Sell: 119.28 Take profit: 118.96

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 141.54, 140.82, 139.88, 139.46, 138.91 and 138.19. Here, the price forms the medium-term initial conditions for the downward movement of November 18 and at the moment, the price is close to canceling this structure, for which a breakdown of the level of 140.82 is necessary. Here, the potential target is 141.54. Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 139.88 - 139.46. The continuation of the development of the downward trend on the H1 scale is expected after the breakdown of the level of 139.46. In this case, the target is 138.91. Price consolidation is near this level. We consider the level 138.19 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

The main trend is the medium-term downward structure of November 18, the stage of deep correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.84 Take profit: 141.50

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 139.88 Take profit: 139.48

Sell: 139.44 Take profit: 138.94

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar will not stand for the price

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The US currency, as many experts noted earlier, will not concede its position, especially when paired with the euro. The greenback has strengthened its position in the EUR/USD pair and is not going to part with the leadership. The European currency will have to make every effort to squeeze the greenback.

At present, little can shake the USeconomy, including the difficulty in reaching a compromise between Washington and Beijing. However, the development of a negative scenario is unlikely: according to experts, the warring parties are approaching the signing of a comprehensive agreement. Experts were pleased with the rapid growth of the US purchasing managers index, which reached a 4-month high, as well as the growth of consumer sentiment, which increased from 95.5 to 96.8 points. According to the latest data, everything is in order with the US economy, analysts summarize.

In the event of an implementation of a positive scenario, namely the complete cessation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, the market can hope for the restoration of the German economy that has suffered from this confrontation. In this situation, experts predict an active growth of the EUR/USD pair to the levels of 1,1500-1,1600. Otherwise, you should not count on the rise, analysts said.

The EUR/USD pair was trading in the range of 1.1025–1.1026 on Monday, November 25. In the future, experts recorded a bearish trend, which was steadily gaining momentum.

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As a result, the pair was in a low position, trading within 1.1013–1.1014. The EUR/USD pair was stuck at this level in an attempt to grope the bottom, although analysts expect that it will gradually begin to move up in the near future.

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According to preliminary estimates, the further dynamics of the classic pair will depend on the level of 1.1000. Experts do not exclude its breakout. In this case, we should expect the EUR/USD pair to fall to 1.0600–1.0700. A similar situation is possible if America and China once again fail to agree, and Donald Trump will raise duties on imports of European cars. In the event of the end of the trade war, the implementation of the "soft" Brexit and the restoration of the German economy, the market can count on EUR/USD rally up to 1.1500–1.1600, analysts said.

If the current situation is not very positive for the European currency, then there is no reason for a negative for the greenback. On the contrary, it feels more confident than ever. Analysts believe that the green light will turn on for the dollar for a long time, but the rise of the euro remains in question.

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Pound: under pressure due to upcoming elections

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Most analysts are wondering how the upcoming UK general elections, scheduled for December 12 this year, will affect the national currency. They seriously fear a currency crisis that could sweep the country. As a result, the British currency will be under heavy pressure and will undergo a powerful collapse.

The pound will take the brunt after the election, experts said. They remind that the sterling was influenced by political forces that undermined its position for a long time. Currently, the pound is also resisting excessive political pressure, but with varying degrees of success.

Leading economists, analyzing the current situation in the UK currency market, came to the conclusion that a currency crisis is not ruled out in the country in the near future. Llewellyn Consulting experts drew attention to a number of signs that preceded its appearance. These include the collapse of the exchange rate, the deficit of the current account and the balance of payments (that is, the difference between imports and exports), as well as the deficit of the state budget (the gap between taxes and expenses). As a rule, this difference exceeds 4% of GDP.

Difficulties in the foreign exchange market arise if the current account deficit drives the national currency rate under pressure. A similar situation emerges if this deficit is not compensated by powerful cash injections of private capital. Difficulties are exacerbated if the budget deficit is superimposed on the current account deficit. The development of such a scenario could trigger inflation, experts warn.

In 2019, the balance of payments in the UK exceeds 5% of GDP, which worries analysts. The fact that the current election campaign resembles a battle for raising rates on additional government spending adds fuel to the fire. According to experts, if the British parties fulfill their promises regarding expenditures, especially additional public investments, the state budget deficit will amount to 3% of GDP. A similar scenario is possible if Conservatives win, and if Labour is in the lead, the budget deficit may exceed the level of 4% of GDP.

Nevertheless, there are factors that significantly reduce the threat of a currency crisis. These include changes in the monetary policy of leading regulators, due to which the increase in current account deficits and the state budget does not provoke inflation. According to experts, at the moment the financing of double deficits is made much more efficient and safer than before.

Currently, the British currency feels much more confident than before the 2016 referendum. Recall that three years ago, after a referendum on Brexit, experts recorded a massive collapse of sterling. Subsequently, the British currency traded 20% below its fundamental level.

At the moment, the pound is showing signs of growth. The GBP/USD pair started with low values on Monday morning, November 25, trading at 1.2851–1.2852.

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In the future, the pair's efforts that aimed at increasing were not in vain. The GBP/USD pair jumped, and now it is near the levels of 1.2873-1.2874. Experts record an upward trend, which may persist throughout the current week.

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According to analysts, the relative cheapness of the pound makes it less vulnerable to political shocks. The sterling does not lose stability even in the case of a negative scenario with double deficits. Many experts are certain that Brexit's negative consequences and double deficits are already included in the current sterling rate.

For a long time, the pound resisted political and economic pressure, trying to withstand these overloads. Many experts are worried about its further dynamics, believing that sterling cannot avoid a collapse in the event of force majeure in the elections. However, the market relies on the stability of the pound and on the optimistic election results, thanks to which the fragile balance in the British currency field will remain.

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Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on November 25

Economic calendar (Universal time)

The economic calendar did not contain important events. Thus, you can only pay attention to statistics from the Eurozone, which was released around 9.00 UTC+00, led by data on the state of the business climate in Germany.

EUR / USD

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The players on the downside did not wait for Monday and showed activity already at the end of last week. Now, the pair is in the bearish zone relative to the clouds (daytime and H4), as well as under significant resistance levels of the higher halves. As a result, we can expect that at the close of the current month, the last working week of which began today, the players on the downside will seek to maintain their positions and mood. In the case of the continuation of decline, the interests of players to lower in the near future will be targeted at leaving the zones of corrections, which is limited by the extreme minimum of 1.0989 and 1.0879. On the other hand, a change in the situation and/or a return of uncertainty is possible when the pair consolidates above the nearest resistances, which continue to form a fairly wide zone of 1.1030 (weekly short-term trend) - 1.1055 (daily cloud) - 1.1082 (daily Kijun + weekly Fibo Kijun).

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In the lower halves, the long-term trend also belongs to the players downside. The support of the classic pivot levels has designated a fairly wide range of opportunities for the bears - 1.0993 (S1) - 1.0967 (S2) - 1.0919 (S3). With the development of an upward correction, the key resistance levels in the current situation on H1 are 1.1041 (central pivot level) and 1.1064 (weekly long-term trend).

GBP / USD

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For the GBP/USD, another test of the weekly cloud failed again. Nevertheless, the players on the downside managed to close the week under all important resistance, clearing their way for a corrective decline to the weekly cross supports (the nearest levels are 1.2606 Tenkan + 1.2609 Fibo Kijun). Thus far, the weekly cross is strengthening the support for the daily cloud, and the monthly short-term trend, which is at 1.2669 in November, can also play a role in this area. The weakening of the bearish positions in the current situation is the proximity of significant levels, since, due to their distance from other benchmarks and high concentration, they provide not only resistance, but also a strong attraction. This is confirmed by the fact that the pair spent almost all of November in the area. The final week of the month has started today, so the nature and potential of the November monthly candle will depend on its result.

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In the lower halves, we are currently witnessing the development of an upward correction, which managed to close the last hour above the central pivot level of the day (1.2861) with the active support of technical indicators. Consolidation and development of the correction will allow us to consider the rise to the next significant level in the lower halves - the weekly long-term trend (1.2914). Breaking down this level will return the advantage of the bulls in the lower halves and the general uncertainty in the upper ones. Moreover, the resistance of the upper time intervals 1.2953 and 1.3012 will be relevant in this case. Leaving the correction zone and continuing the decline will also return relevance to the support of the classic pivot levels 1.2793 (S1) - 1.2755 (S2) - 1.2687 (S3).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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GBP/USD. November 25. Results of the day. An insufficiently convincing Conservative victory could pull down the pound by

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 81p - 60p - 44p - 77p - 106p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 74p (average).

The British pound does not want to correspond to the fundamental background, which has long hinted at a strong decline in the British currency. Traders are still impressed by the possible significant victory of Conservatives in future elections, which will allow Boris Johnson to freely implement Brexit and put an end to the three-year epic of a "divorce" with the European Union. What are the reasons for traders to assume just such an option? Only sociological polls and studies that show that the Conservative Party's rating is growing, the Labour Party's rating is also growing, but at a slower pace, while the rest of the parties are losing their popularity. However, the gap between Conservatives and Labour does not widen and remains at 12-15%. We remind you that even if the current rating of the party of Johnson is about 43%, this does not mean that his party members will get 43% of the 650 seats in the British Parliament. Thus, we still recommend not to be in a stage of prematurity and unreasonable euphoria, so that you do not get upset because of unfulfilled dreams.

During the first trading day of the week, the British pound managed to rise by 70 points, which is seen as out of the blue" There were no important macroeconomic publications during the day in either the UK or the US. Thus, traders could only respond to the general news background, which comes from regular media and periodicals, which now can only announce the course of election campaigns or how the rating of a political party has changed. That is, it turns out that today's strengthening of the British currency is again connected with the confidence of most traders in the victory of Conservatives in the elections, and not with macroeconomic statistics, which in the UK have been absolutely disastrous in the last 3-4 weeks. Last week, it became known that business activity in the service sector also slipped into the region below 50, as in the industrial sector. What is now to be expected from indicators of GDP, inflation, wages, industrial production? But macroeconomic statistics now have no effect on the pound. Traders were determined to wait for the results and elections and certainly see the Conservatives win at them. Assuming what happens to the pound if the Conservatives do not win enough parliamentary seats is not difficult. The pound has no actual reasons for growth, but a whole set of reasons and factors for the fall. If the assumption about the Conservatives' defeat or their insufficiently convincing victory comes true, then the pound may plummet back to multi-year lows and even lower. Furthermore, due to weak macroeconomic statistics, which traders can suddenly remember, and because of a sharp drop in the chances of completing the Brexit procedure in January.

In addition, it will not be superfluous to think about the future value of the pound sterling in the foreign exchange market if the "divorce proceedings" nevertheless ends in January. This will be followed by long and difficult negotiations between the European Union and Britain regarding future trade relations between them. Negotiations with the US will begin, with which Johnson really wants to conclude a huge trade deal. However, as recent events show us, trading deals are not fast. The process can take several years, and as long as it lasts, the economy of any country that is not even involved in a trade conflict may show signs of a slowdown. Thus, if the Conservatives win, then the pound, according to various experts, will increase to $1.32–1.34. However, there will be full of possible reasons for disappointment among investors in 2020.

Well, the last thing that needs to be reported: The British Parliament will resume its work five days after the re-election, that is, September 17th. A legislative agenda will already be worked out on the 19th, and by December 25 a proposal will be put to the vote on a deal between Johnson and the European Union. That is, in theory, before the New Year we will find out how Johnson's third attempt to push his agreement through Parliament ends.

The technical picture of the pound/dollar pair resembles a frank flat more and more, which is clearly visible on the 24-hour timeframe. Quotations cannot fall below the level of 1.2780, above the level of 1.2970 they also cannot continue to grow. So it turns out that the pair is clamped into a side channel wide enough for a 4-hour timeframe. Hopes for a continued downward movement after the Friday impulse, it seems, are not destined to come true. Thus, we continue to wait for the elections and keep a flat in mind.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD started to move down, but very quickly finished. Thus, traders are encouraged to consider selling the pound this week with targets at 1.2826 and 1.2780 if quotes return to the area below the Ichimoku cloud. It is not recommended to buy the pound/dollar pair yet, as fundamental factors indicate a downward trend, and bulls are not able to consolidate the pair above 1.2980.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Developing USD/CAD pair and trading idea

During the previous recommendation on Friday,it is advised to develop the pair at least on a false breakdown of the level of 1.3269. Actually, this is exactly the outcome we are observing - on the news, this level was falsely broken, and thus, the recommendation completely justified itself. The plan was this:

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Thus far, the intrigue of the instrument continues. False news breakdown of this level provides a good opportunity for the development of further medium-term upward trend. Since the end of October, there has been a prolonged upward trend on for this instrument, and the probability of its continuation is still high. For this reason, there is another recommendation for the same instrument today. I believe that the development will continue to a minimum to the level of 1.3326. Therefore, you can try to buy with a goal of updating it, limiting the risks at the price of 1.3254, since it makes no sense to keep purchases below the news last Friday. Updating Friday's minimum - the bullish scenario will be completely canceled.

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Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

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EUR/USD. November 25. Results of the day. The US currency needs new reasons to continue growth

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 40p - 21p - 28p - 45p - 74p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 42p (low).

On the first trading day of the new week, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading with a high volatility of 28 points. This is even below the average of the last five days, which is also defined as low. Thus, by and large, there is practically nothing to talk about in today's trading on the forex market. Traders extended their weekend by at least one day, but tomorrow they should be active, because on Tuesday, unlike today, there will be macroeconomic data and events that deserve attention. Today, in terms of fundamental events, there is practically nothing to highlight. Not a single important macroeconomic publication in the European Union or the United States.

In the light of the situation with an empty fundamental background, we suggest once again trying to understand the question of why the trade war between China and the United States has a greater negative impact on the European currency, and not on the US dollar, and why this effect will continue for the currency pair in the future. Roughly speaking, trade disagreements between Beijing and Washington are hitting the entire global economy, which, of course, affects each country individually. The European Union, along with each of its individual country, and Great Britain are no exception. Since the United States and China have introduced import duties, the demand for these groups of goods has accordingly decreased, consumers are looking for alternatives, respectively, the production volumes of these goods are reduced, respectively, the supply of components and raw materials is reduced, and the volume of investment in the manufacturing sectors of these goods is reduced, and this whole whirlpool involves many countries. That is why the European Union and its currencies are under pressure, as well as the direct participants in the conflict, macroeconomic indicators are falling, the euro is weakening against the US currency. However, how come the dollar does not fall? If we consider it precisely in conjunction with the euro, then the situation remains exactly the same as it was a month ago, and six months ago, and before the start of the trade war. Everything is simple and banal: the US economy is stronger, more stable, showing a slower slowdown compared to the EU economy, and monetary policy in the United States is more hawkish. Accordingly, investment flows to a greater extent precisely in America, the US stock market, despite geopolitical tensions, feels great, while Europe is suffering not only from a slowdown in the economy, but also from Brexit. For these reasons, the US dollar continues to rise in the long run, and at the moment it's even difficult to say when and why the dollar trend may stop.

It seems that in order for the demand for the US dollar to decrease, an even greater trade conflict should erupt between China and the United States, which will critically affect American companies and discourage international investors from investing in them. Demand for American goods should be greatly reduced, possibly due to the strong increase in cost and cost of production, which are possible due to the introduction of new economic sanctions and duties on American goods. US GDP should suffer much more than European GDP, only in this case will it be possible for traders to hope and investors will turn to the euro currency. But so far we do not see the reasons for this development of events.

In addition, both the central banks and their respective heads do not work in favor of the European currency. For example, the recent speeches of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were held under the neutral flag, that is, the Fed is not going to soften its monetary policy again in the near future. The ECB led by Christine Lagarde said that "the time has come for strategic changes," and the EU economy needs additional stimulation. Thus, if we expect a new reduction in the key rate, then it is in Europe, where the key tool for influencing the economy is already in the negative area. Powell is set to give another speech tonight. It is unlikely that his rhetoric will suffer serious changes in comparison with the previous speech, however, such an event always has a high degree of significance.

From a technical point of view, the weakest downward movement in the euro/dollar pair after the formation of a new signal from Ichimoku dead cross continues. Bollinger Bands also indicate a downward trend. However, the pair is approaching the values at which there are fewer sellers of the euro. Recall the paradoxical situation, which we have already described several times earlier. If in the coming days the US dollar does not receive significant fundamental support, then it is likely that the pair's quotes will move upward.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed the downward movement, and volatility in trading sharply fell again on Monday. Thus, it is now recommended to remain selling the euro/dollar pair with targets at 1.0990 and 1.0977. It is recommended to consider pair purchases not earlier than the reverse consolidation of traders above the critical Kijun-sen line and the levels 1.1061 and 1.1073 with the first goal being the resistance level of 1.1127.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com