Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 6, 2015

General overview for 06/02/2015 15:00 CET


After the today's mixed data for Canada the pair is still in corrective cycle and now the signs of the impulsive rebound has been noticed just yet. Any breakout below the level of 1.2348 is bearish and further wave progression to the downside in order to complete the wave Y brown should be expected. On the other hand, only an impulsive breakout above the level of 1.2590 would be considered as bullish development.


Support/Resistance:


1.2648 - Intraday Resistance


1.2632 - Weekly Pivot


1.2590 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|


1.2474 - WS1


1.2351 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


Please refrain from trading and wait for more clear pattern to emerge.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 6, 2015

General overview for 06/02/2015 14:50 CET


After the today's strong NFP data the pair is continuing its upward move. That is why the scenario has been slightly changed to incorporate new wave developments. Currently the corrective cycle has evolved to more complex cycle in the shape of a WXY brown. Another leg up is expected if the intraday resistance at the level of 135.33 is broken with two possible targets: the golden channel trend line around the level of 136.58 and the second target at the level of 137.63.


Support/Resistance:


137.63 - Secondary Target


136.58 - WR2|Primary Target|


135.33 - Intraday Resistance


134.59 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should consider opening buy orders from the current price levels with SL below the level of 134.06 and TP at the level of 136.58.


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EUR/NZD : analysis for February 06, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. The price has tested the level of 1.5524 in a volume below the average. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% around the price of 1.5800 was held successfully, and it made price start with bearish movement. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since we may see more bearish movement before any larger bullish reaction. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5421 is again on the test. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5420 in a high volume, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1.5180 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe lack of demand around the price of 1.5524, which is a sign that buying look risky.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5537


R2: 1.5581


R3: 1.5654


Support levels:


S1: 1.5392


S2: 1.5348


S3: 1.5276


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage, but watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips)




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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 6, 2015

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Overview:


The daily closure below the recent bottoms located around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with projection target at 1.5300.


The market has already pushed further below, reaching down to 1.5030-1.4980 where the lower limit of the channel has been providing support for the pair over the past few weeks.


The H4 chart shows transition into a sideway movement with mild bearish tendency which has been maintained within the depicted channel untill evident bullish pressure was applied at retesting of 1.5000 last week.


Temporary bullish breakout above the upper limit of the short-term flag pattern (the price level of 1.5170) took place earlier this week.


Persistence above the key-support (the price level of 1.5170) is currently applying strong bullish pressure over the price zone of 1.5290-1.5360 (prominent Fibonacci levels and the upper limit of the depicted movement channel) where bearish rejection should be anticipated.


Trading recommendations:


Look for signs of reversal around the current price zone (1.5290-1.5360) and for a valid SELL entry with SL located slightly above 1.5380.


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Gold analysis for February 06, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,264.00. We are still waiting for larger activity on the market. We are facing low volatility today on the market. According to the H4 time frame, we got very high effort from sellers with very weak result in the background, which is a sign that selling around the price of 1,255.00 looks risky. Our submajor Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,254.00 has been held successfully again. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,254.00 in a strong volume, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1,240.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily time frame, we have weak supply on the market. Resistance level is around the price of 1,307.00 (swing high like resistance). My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows (buy on the dips).


Daily Fibonacci pivot points :


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,271.54


R2: 1,275.90


R3: 1,282.97


Support levels :


S1: 1,257.40


S2: 1,253.04


S3: 1,245.97


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).




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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 6, 2015

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The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the obvious MONTHLY closure below 1.2000.


During the past few weeks, the EUR/USD bears have been challenging historical lows that were established back in 2005 and 2003.


Some bullish recovery was finally witnessed by the end of January and the beginning of February.


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On the daily chart the market looked oversold below the price levels of 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT).


As it was suggested in the previous articles, conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700).


The price zone of 1.1540-1.1600 is a recently established SUPPLY zone. Short-term SELL positions can be taken there. Stop loss should be placed slightly above the price level of 1.1680.


On the other hand, daily fixation again below 1.1260, which is a recent DEMAND level, exposes the recent lows around 1.1110 for retesting.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 6, 2015

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The previous consolidation movement extended between the price levels of 1.5550 and 1.5770. It represented a period of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.


Bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 which have not been visited since July 2013.


As mentioned in the previous articles, conservative traders should have been waiting for the current bullish pullback towards the recent SUPPLY zone around 1.5280-1.5320 for a low-risk SELL entry.


This SUPPLY zone also corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted daily channel where bearish pressure should be anticipated today at retesting.


This bearish scenario is being threatened today after the yesterday's daily closure above the upper limit of the consolidation zone as well as the depicted channel around 1.5250.


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On January 8, the GBP/USD pair has shown initial bullish recovery off the price level of 1.5050. Since then, the pair was trapped within a consolidation zone ranging between 1.4960 and 1.5230 until yesterday when the pair achieved daily closure above them.


The price level of 1.5280 corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted H4 channel as well as 50% Fibonacci level of the recent bearish swing that extended between 1.5600 and 1.4976.


The short-term price action should be watched closely around the price zone of 1.5280-1.5320 for a low-risk SHORT entry. Stop loss should be located above 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level).


On the other hand, DAILY closure above 1.5340 invalidates the short-term bearish scenario exposing the price level of 1.5480 for retesting.


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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 6, 2015

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Overview :



  • The AUD/USD pair has risen from the level of 0.7767 and has extended further to as high as 0.7832 a day ago. It should be noted that the price is now approaching from a minor resistance at 0.7856 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels) because the bears already broke this level; therefore, the bulls were forced to pull back below this level. However, if history repeats itself, the market will start showing the signs of bearish market again, and the price will set below 0.7860 for that the market indicates a bearish opportunity at level of 0.7860 with a first target of 0.7791 and continues towards 0.7767. On the other hand, if the trend breaks this level and closure above it on the H4 chart, it will be an upside momentum, what is rather convincing, and the structure of the rise is not corrective. Hence, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.7770, the resistance will become a support, so it will be a good sign to buy above 0.7770 with a target at 0.7850 and it might resume to 0.7925 (50% Fibonacci retracement levels).



Intraday technical levels :

Date: 6/02/2015

Pair: AUD/USD



  • R3: 0.7927

  • R2: 0.7876

  • R1: 0.7836

  • PP: 0.7785

  • S1: 0.7745

  • S2: 0.7694

  • S3: 0.7654



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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 6, 2015

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Overview :

The NZD/USD pair will be continued straight from the level of 0.7384. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.7384 represents a strong support because it coincides with the 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels. Moreover, the same level is probably going to form a double bottom at the same time frame. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strenght following the break of the highest level of 0.7380, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels on the H1 chart with the first target of 0.7446 and continue towards 0.7507 (it will act as a strong resistance for that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with 61.8% of Fibonacci). However, in case if reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7380, the market will lead to further decline to 0.7310 in order to indicate for a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 06, 2015

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await the U.S. data on January nonfarm payrolls (expected to have increased by 237,000) at 13:30 GMT, unemployment rate (expected to have slipped to 5.5% from December's 5.6%) and average hourly wage (forecast +0.3%). USD/JPY is supported by the yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 8.07% to 16.85; S&P 500 closed up 1.03% at 2,062.52 overnight) on strong rally in oil prices and fewer than expected 278,000 the U.S. jobless claims for the week ended on January 31 (versus forecast 290,000). Concerns subsided over a showdown between Greece and its creditors have a certain impact too. USD/JPY is also boosted by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.817% versus 1.747% late Wednesday) and the demand from Japan's importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But the USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports and the weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 93.59 versus 94.57 early Thursday). That was caused by the U.S. December trade gap of $46.56 billion (versus forecast $38.5 billion) and a surprise 1.8% drop in the U.S. 4Q preliminary nonfarm productivity (versus forecast +0.0%) that overshadowed the upbeat jobless claims data and a 2.7% rise in the U.S. 4Q unit labor costs (versus forecast +1.2%).


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral; five- and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 116.55. The pivot point stands at 117.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 117.95 and the second target at 118.20.


Resistance levels:

117.95

118.20

118.45

Support levels:

117

116.55

116.80


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 06, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in a lower range as markets await the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. USD/CHF is undermined by the broadly weaker dollar undertone and the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But the USD/CHF losses are tempered by the negative Swiss interest rates, the threat of the SNB CHF-selling intervention and position adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9160. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 0.9075. The pivot point stands at 0.9290. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9365 and the second target at 0.9435.


Resistance levels:
0.9365

0.9435

0.9465


Support levels:

0.9160

0.9075

0.8985


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 06, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias as markets await the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Financial markets in New Zealand are shut owing to a public holiday. NZD/USD is supported by the broadly weaker dollar undertone and the kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion. But the NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of weekend.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold levels; intraday-range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7450 and the second target at 0.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7280. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7220. The pivot point is at 0.7325.


Resistance levels:

0.7465

0.75

0.7550



Support levels:


0.7325

0.7280

0.7220


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Daily analysis of Silver for February 06, 2015

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Overview


As it is seen on today's H4 chart, the metal is stabilizing above the support level of 17.00 after its failure to break the support level yesterday. So, it has bounced again. Currently, we should wait for retesting the support level again and closing below it to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case, we will get a good opportunity to sell below the support level till testing the next support level of 16.75. Therefore, we can consider our first target a few pips above this support level, but as long as the price is still above the support level of 17.00, this cancels the bearish scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (18.00), R2 (17.70), R1 (17.50), S1 (17.00), S2 (17.75), S3(17.50).




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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 06, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. GBP/JPY is underpinned by the improved EUR sentiment amid diminished concerns over Greece, positive risk tolerance and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and position adjustment ahead of the weekend.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 180.55 and the second target at 180.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 178.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 177.70. The pivot point is at 179.20.


Resistance levels:

180.55

180.90

181.45


Support levels:

178.50

177.70

177


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 6 - 2015

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Technical summary:


Our call for a correction in wave (ii) towards 1.5354 has been right in the "bulls eye". With a low at 1.5341 it doesn't get much better than that. We are now looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.5538 as the first indication that wave (ii) is over and wave (iii) is developing. To confirm that wave (iii) indeed is in motion, a break above resistance at 1.5712 is needed and would call for an acceleration towards at least 1.6853. In the short term, we will be looking for minor support at 1.5407 to protect the downside for the break above 1.5538. Only a break below the 1.5354 low, would delay the expected rally higher towards 1.6853.


Trading recommendations:


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 6 - 2015

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Technical summary:


Did wave (iv) end at 135.36 and is a new impulsive decline towards 125.98 developing? As long as 135.36 protects the upside, we will give the benefit of the doubt to bears, but a break above 135.36 with just one pip indicates that a more complex correction is unfolding. In the short term, we would like to see a break below minor support at 133.87 as the first good indication that the bearish case is correct, while a break below support at 132.52 is needed to confirm and support our bearish count.


Trading recommendations:


Our stop at 133.55 was hit for a nice little profit. We will sell EUR again at 137.70 with a stop at 135.40


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Daily analysis of USDX for February 06, 2015

On the daily chart, we can see a retracement from the USDX in favor of the bearish bias, as this instrument probably will touch the support level of 93.02 in the short term. Anyway, our bullish outlook in the general bias is still valid, as the 200 SMA is bullish and the USDX is performing a corrective cycle on this chart.


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Again, the USDX fell below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. Now, the USDX finds strong support at the 93.46 level. But we are still interested to see a rebound on that level to the resistance level of 93.94, that could be the last chance in the short term for this instrument to get on the bullish ride again. Anyway, if the USDX makes a breakout at the 93.46 level, the next target could be the support level of 93.10.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 94.18 / 95.45


Dailychart's support levels: 93.02 / 92.42


H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.94 / 94.38


H1 chart's support levels: 93.46 / 93.10




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.45, take profit is at 96.87, and stop loss is at 93.50.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 06, 2015

Bulls are taking control of the GBP/USD pair, as this pair had a strong bullish momentum above the support level of 1.5247, with near-term target at the level of 1.5491. Probably, the GBP/USD pair will start to form a bullish pattern in order to reach that resistance zone. By the way, we recommend to be cautious when you trade against the trend, because the main bias is still bearish.


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The GBP/USD pair worked well on the bullish side above the 200 SMA, that is also pointing upwards. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 1.5302, with a strong resistance zone on the way to 1.5349. If a breakout happens there, the pair is expected to reach the resistance level at 1.5415.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5491 / 1.5637


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5247 / 1.5025


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5340 / 1.5415


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5302 / 1.5249




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5340, take profit is at 1.5415, and stop loss is at 1.5262.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 06, 2015

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When the European market opens, a batch of economic reports will be released such as French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1526.

Strong Resistance:1.1519.

Original Resistance: 1.1508.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1497.

Target Inner Area: 1.1470.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1443.

Original Support: 1.1432.

Strong Support: 1.1421.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1414.





Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 06, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators. Besides, the US will release some economic data such as Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 117.94.

Resistance. 2: 117.71.

Resistance. 1: 117.48.

Support. 1: 117.19.

Support. 2: 116.96.

Support. 3: 116.73.





Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for February 6, 2015

EUR/USD: This week, the support line at 1.1300 has been important for this pair. From that line, the price has gone upwards by more than 200 pips. It is expected that the price could reach the resistance line at 1.1600 next week.


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USD/CHF: The movement on this currency trading instrument looks like that of an equilibrium market; whereas a closer look reveals that the movement is a slow and steady one in favor of bulls. As it is said earlier, occasional pullbacks in the market would be transitory and the price can move upwards by over 500 this month.


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GBP/USD: Since the GBP/USD pair tested the accumulation territory at 1.5000, the price has gone upwards by over 340 pips. The upward movement has been significant enough to result in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 (while the price is far above them), and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The distribution territory at 1.5350 is almost breached to the upside and the price would test another distribution territory at 1.5400.


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USD/JPY: This is not a favorable market to swing and position traders – at least for the time being. This market is currently favorable to scalpers and intraday traders, just because of short-term southward and northward swings in the market. Both bullish and bearish runs are short-lived and occur alternatively.


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EUR/JPY: The near-term strength in the euro is one of the reasons why this cross is going upwards. A movement above the supply zone at 135.50 would result in a fine bullish bias in the market.


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Gold Technical analysis for February 6, 2015

Gold price continues to trade inside a triangle pattern above the important support at $1,250 and below the short-term resistance at $1,275. The trend is neutral and traders had better wait.


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Black lines = triangle pattern


Gold is trading inside the range. Gold bulls need to hold above $1,250 and break $1,280. Bears are looking for the exact opposite. Price is below the ichimoku cloud and this is another bearish sign but unless support fails, bulls feel comfortable.


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Gold price continues to test the 38% retracement. This support level if broken will push price towards the green area where the Ichimoku cloud is and the 50 or 60% retracements. A break below the 38% retracement will be a big sell signal with the first target at $1,220.




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#USDX Technical analysis for February 6, 2015

The Dollar index confirms the fact that the Dollar is currently weak and more weakness is around the corner. The Dollar index has managed to move lower after being rejected by the short-term resistance.


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The black line is the resistance trend line and price has gotten rejected every time. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore, we should expect more downside pressures to arise and push the index lower for a bigger than normal correction.


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After a long time, the weekly chart is showing signs of reversal and some increased bearishness. The Dollar index has weekly support at 91.65 by the tenkan-sen (red) trend line. The longer-term trend remains bullish and a pullback towards 92-91.50 could be a great buying opportunity.






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