Trading plan for EUR/USD for March 31, 2020

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Technical outlook:

EUR/USD is drifting/consolidating its previous gains and is seen to be trading around 1.1000 levels at this point in writing. The single currency pair is expected to find support around 1.0950/90 levels, before resuming its rally. The near term target for EUR/USD is seen above 1.1500, which is immediate price resistance as well. A break higher would confirm that medium to long term trend has turned bullish with risk at 1.0630 levels. As discussed yesterday, also note that an engulfing bullish candlestick pattern has appeared on a weekly chart. This also indicated a potential bullish reversal ahead. Overall structure is expected to remain bullish until price stay above 1.0636 support. Aggressive traders may want to buy at current levels with risk below 1.0636 and immediate price targets above 1.1500. A more safe approach is to remain flat for now and allow price action to break above 1.1500; then buy on dips.

Trading plan:

Aggressive: Long now @ 1.1090, stop @ 1.0630 target above 1.1500

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Instaforex Daily Analysis - 31st Mar 2020

Today we take a look at EURUSD and see how we are going to play the bounce!

We use Fibonacci retracements, extensions, support/resistance, momentum and trend lines to identify trading opportunities in this exciting pair today!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for March 31

Forecast for March 31:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1273, 1.1220, 1.1133, 1.1068, 1.0988, 1.0942 and 1.0870. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of March 20. We expect short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, in the range of 1.1068 - 1.1133. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1220. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1273. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.0988 - 1.0942. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 1.0870. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 20

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1130

Buy: 1.1135 Take profit: 1.1220

Sell: 1.0988 Take profit: 1.0944

Sell: 1.0940 Take profit: 1.0870

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2879, 1.2654, 1.2550, 1.2315, 1.2216 and 1.2099. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of March 19. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2550 - 1.2654. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 1.2550. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2315 - 1.2216. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2099. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of March 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2652

Buy: 1.2655 Take profit: 1.2876

Sell: 1.2315 Take profit: 1.2218

Sell: 1.2214 Take profit: 1.2100

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9682, 0.9622, 0.9579, 0.9497, 0.9424 and 0.9342. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the descending structure of March 20. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9497. In this case, the target is 0.9424. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 0.9342, upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 0.9579 - 0.9622. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9682. We expect the initial conditions to be formed for the upward cycle to this level.

The main trend is the downward cycle of March 20, the correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9579 Take profit: 0.9620

Buy : 0.9623 Take profit: 0.9680

Sell: 0.9497 Take profit: 0.9426

Sell: 0.9422 Take profit: 0.9345

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.58, 108.72, 108.17, 107.27, 106.56, 106.10 and 105.15. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of March 25. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.27. In this case, the target is 106.56. Price consolidation is in the range of 106.56 - 106.10. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 105.15. We expect a rollback to the top upon reaching this level.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 108.17 - 108.72. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 109.58. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

Main trend: the downward trend of March 25

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.17 Take profit: 108.70

Buy : 108.74 Take profit: 109.56

Sell: 107.25 Take profit: 106.56

Sell: 106.10 Take profit: 105.15

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.4344, 1.4215, 1.4119, 1.3956, 1.3747, 1.3615 and 1.3425. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of March 19. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3956. In this case, we expect a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3747. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.3747 - 1.3615. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3425. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 1.4119 - 1.4215. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the potential target is 1.4344. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of March 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy : 1.4217 Take profit: 1.4344

Sell: 1.3954 Take profit: 1.3750

Sell: 1.3745 Take profit: 1.3620

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6596, 0.6511, 0.6352, 0.6241, 0.6031, 0.5935 and 0.5779. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of March 19. At the moment, we expect a movement to the level of 0.6241. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6241 - 0.6352. The breakdown of the level of 0.6352 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.6595. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6595 - 0.6511.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6031 - 0.5935. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.5779. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6241 Take profit: 0.6350

Buy: 0.6354 Take profit: 0.6511

Sell : 0.6030 Take profit : 0.5935

Sell: 0.5933 Take profit: 0.5780

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 124.47, 123.42, 121.83, 120.62, 119.35, 118.66, 117.73 and 116.27. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of March 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 120.62 - 121.83. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 123.42. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 124.47. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 119.35 - 118.66. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 117.73. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 12

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.62 Take profit: 121.80

Buy: 121.85 Take profit: 123.40

Sell: 119.35 Take profit: 118.70

Sell: 118.62 Take profit: 117.75

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 140.54, 138.12, 136.99, 134.93, 133.59, 131.58, 129.78 and 127.47. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of March 18. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 133.59 - 134.93. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 136.99. Price consolidation is in the range of 136.99 - 138.12. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 140.54. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 131.58 - 129.78. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 127.47. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of March 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.60 Take profit: 134.90

Buy: 134.95 Take profit: 136.99

Sell: 131.58 Take profit: 129.80

Sell: 129.70 Take profit: 127.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will China become the driver of global economic recovery? (AUD/USD and USD/JPY pairs are expected to continue to locally

The data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) of China published on Tuesday were unexpectedly strong, which served as the basis for positive dynamics in the stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to the data from China, the index of business activity in March unexpectedly rose to 52.0 points from the February value of 35.7 points and the expected growth forecast to 45.0 points. Moreover, it rose above an important level of 50 points, which indicates an objective increase in production in the country after the most severe quarantine measures that were taken at the beginning of the year in the wake of the coronavirus epidemic. It is important to note that the resumption of the pace of work of enterprises amounted to 98.6%, and the number of returned workers rose to 89.9%.

This is very encouraging news. This raises the question: Will China become the driver of global economic recovery from the consequences of COVID-19?

Of course, there are such hopes, but it should be recognized that the Chinese economy, while still being a global manufacturing workshop, will be able to fully function if demand starts to recover in Europe and North America, where the so-called "golden billion" of Chinese consumers are concentrated, and not only it. In this case, China will only be able to return to the usual economic growth rate of around 6.0%. But now it is predicted that it will be from 1% to 2% in the first half of the year, no more than that.

Again, as before, we believe that April will be a decisive month. If a pandemic can be curbed in Europe and the USA, and such signals have already begun to appear in Italy, the epicenter of this infection in the European part of Eurasia, then demand will begin to recover and apocalyptic forecasts of a future grave global crisis will not come true. The failure in the growth of the global economy can reach 10%, which can be overcome already this year.

Based on this, we believe that a gradual recovery in demand for risky assets will put pressure on the dollar, which will continue to decline smoothly against major currencies.

Given the positive on the background of Chinese statistics, we believe that the opening of trading in Europe in the "green" zone, and stock index futures so far demonstrate this, will lead to an increase in the exchange rates of major currencies against the dollar, as well as its growth against the yen and the Swiss franc.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair has every chance to continue to grow to the level of 0.6365 after breaking through the level of 0.6210.

The USD/JPY pair can also grow to our previous target 109.00 after breaking through which the direction will open for it to the level of 109.30.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil is looking for a bottom

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On Monday, crude oil was trading below $ 20 per barrel. Traders assume that oil production may stop, as demand for it, in connection with the coronavirus, declined significantly.

The oil industry is currently facing the biggest drop in oil demand in history, and analysts, as well as traders, believe that the price of oil will continue to decline in the near future.

There are also speculations that in April, oil surplus may reach 25 million barrels.

Jason Bordoff, founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy and former energy adviser to the Obama administration, said that this historic collapse is not over yet because soon, we will see numerous closures in oil production, as producers are likely to be forced to stop production on an unprecedented scale in the modern oil industry.

With higher costs to producers such as US shale and Canadian oil sands, the current prices are disadvantageous, so naturally, these companies will very much hope that other smaller producers will stop their production first. In addition, according to Baker Hughes, the rapid decline of oil has already led to the reduction of drilling rigs in the US last week. Analysts said that the US oil industry will most likely shrink to 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2021, despite the fact that US has greatly expanded this industry in recent years. Other high-cost production, from the North sea to fields in Asia, are also under pressure. The largest oil companies, of course, are cutting capital expenditures or studying plans to reduce them.

Meanwhile, Mathios Rigas,CEO of Energean Oil & Gas, said that weaker companies will go bankrupt. "We will see a big drag on investment decisions," Rigas said. "We are in a different world, but there will be survivors," he continued, adding that some companies will see investment opportunities while others will go bankrupt.

US has put little pressure on Saudi Arabia to reduce oil production, as the drop in demand gave a much greater impact on the price.

Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets in Rystad Energy, said that the decline in oil demand is the main factor why the price of oil dropped. According to him, it outweighs the increase in supply "by 4-5 times,". "Supply chains in the oil market is broken because of the incredibly large losses," Tonhauser said. According to him, refineries are reducing the processing of crude oil into fuel, and oil companies may begin to close production wells.

Meanwhile, yesterday, Trump and Putin had a telephone conversation, discussing about the spread of the coronavirus around the world. They agreed to consult with energy departments, in order to stabilize oil prices. After that, WTI oil jumped by 7%, while Brent increased by 3.6%.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 03/31/2020

Surprisingly, despite the constant stream of reports about the victorious March of the coronavirus around the world, the currency market behaved strictly in accordance with the macroeconomic data published yesterday. That is, we can say that the market is returning to a certain normality. However, volatility continues to remain somewhat high. The nature of reports regarding the coronavirus indicated that the common European currency should lose ground. Indeed, not only that the number of infected exceeded the mark of 100 thousand in Italy, but also Spain in this indicator came in third place, ahead of China.

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The currency market began the week with a strengthening dollar, which looked like a banal rebound at first from the confident movement of the past week. Well, the dollar cannot exclusively lose its position. But quite quickly, the pound began to behave differently from the single European currency, and the data on the lending market in the UK turned out to be the reason for such an initiative. After all, the most important thing is that the number of approved mortgage loans has not decreased from 70.9 thousand to 67.5 thousand, but increased to 73.6 thousand. It is equally important that the volume of mortgage lending in February, as in January amounted to 4.0 billion pounds. It was expected to reach 3.8 billion pounds. And if we take into account the importance of the real estate market for the UK economy and its investment attractiveness, then the optimism of market participants is understandable.

Mortgages Approved (UK):

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But the single European currency had something to worry about, as preliminary data on inflation in Spain showed a slowdown from 0.7% to 0.1%. It was predicted that inflation will decline to 0.5%. And a stronger slowdown in inflation was not even offset by the acceleration, from 1.7% to 1.8%, of retail sales growth rates. After all, it was expected that sales should accelerate to 2.3%. In other words, everything is much worse in terms of inflation than expected. And this is in anticipation of the publication of pan-European data. True, in Germany, as expected, inflation fell from 1.7% to 1.4%. But since inflation in the fourth economy of the euro area has declined much more significantly than forecasts, then in the euro area as a whole, it may turn out to be worse than forecast. And separately it is worth paying attention to the fact that this is the data for March.

Inflation (Spain):

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Well, American statistics finally put everything in its place. The growth rate of pending home sales transactions accelerated from 5.8% to 9.4% instead of slowing down from 5.7% to 1.5%. That is, not only acceleration was recorded, instead of deceleration, the previous data was also revised upwards. However, we are talking about an indicator that indicates the number of transactions for the sale of housing, which simply have not yet had time to complete. Most often this happens for the simple reason that the parties to the transaction simply wait for registration documents from the registration authorities. This does not affect the actual fact of making a transaction. Just the final stage, namely payment, is transferred to the next month. Therefore, the growth of this indicator suggests that there is a high probability of growth in home sales. As in the primary market, so on the secondary. And of course, which is quite an optimistic factor. Thus, given the way European statistics came out, it's quite clear why the single European currency was declining, and the pound was more likely to stand still.

Unfinished Home Sales (United States):

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At the same time, the general mood for further increase of the dollar remains. Even with respect to the pound. Moreover, the final data on GDP for the fourth quarter finally confirmed the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 1.2% to 1.1%. So it is not surprising that the mood for the pound in the morning is rather negative, because the slowdown in economic growth, especially in the light of current events, clearly indicates that a deep economic recession will be recorded in the first quarter.

GDP growth rate (UK):

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The most interesting data today is the data which will be published on the euro area. Of course, we are talking about preliminary data on inflation for March, which should show a decrease from 1.2% to 1.1%. However, recalling yesterday's data on inflation in Spain, it is likely that the data will be even worse. In addition, inflation data is also published in France and Italy. And if in the Fourth Republic they expect a decrease from 1.4% to 0.9%, then in the long-suffering Apennines, a rise in consumer prices by 0.3% should be replaced by their decrease by the same 0.3%. That is, in the third economy, the euro zone is waiting for the return of deflation. Therefore, the probability of the resumption of this fascinating process throughout Europe, is becoming more and more realistic. At the same time, the situation is likely to only worsen, since everything is the same Italy, the decline in producer prices should accelerate from -2.3% to -2.7%. So the growth potential of inflation is becoming somewhat illusive. And in Germany, following the United States, they expect a worsening situation on the labor market, as the unemployment rate should rise from 5.0% to 5.2%. And since the unemployment rate is growing, then consumer spending will be reduced, which means that there is nothing to increase inflation. Well, the data on the balance of payments of Spain for January, which should show a deficit of 1.7 billion euros, will become a cherry on the cake. And this is nothing more than another confirmation of the fact that at the moment we are observing precisely the outflow of capital. Indeed, the previous ten months, the balance of payments of the fourth economy of the euro area was purely surplus.

Inflation (Europe):

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In the United States, they are waiting for a new portion of positivity after excellent data on pending home sales. This time in the form of a housing price index from S & P / CaseShiller, which should show an acceleration in the growth rate of these prices from 2.9% to 3.2%. That is, we have sales growth combined with price increases. Well, just the perfect picture. Not a reality, but a dream.

S & P / CaseShiller (United States) Housing Price Index:

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The euro/dollar currency pair returned to the level of 1.1000 once again, where it slowed down and formed a variable range of 1.1000 / 1.1050. It is likely to assume that in case the price is fixed lower than 1.0980, the downward interest will resume directing the quote in the direction of 1.0950-1.0900.

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The pound/dollar currency pair continues to fluctuate within the level of 1.2350, forming a consolidation of Doji candles below it. It is likely to assume that in case of working out the level of 1.2350 as resistance and fixing the price lower than 1.2300, downward interest may resume towards 1.2250-1.2200.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for WTI Crude for March 31, 2020

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Technical outlook:

WTI Crude had dropped to 19.30 levels today during early hours of trade, before reversing sharply. It is seen to be trading around 21.20/30 levels at this point in writing and bulls remain poised to push further higher towards 22.00, before retracing lower again. Strong resistance is seen around the 25.00 levels and a break higher would confirm the reversal. As discussed yesterday and shown here, the fibonacci extensions of earlier drop between 76.88 and 42.40 has already been met around 20.90 levels, and at least a counter trend rally was due any moment. The recent low at 19.30 may remain as interim support, going further. Also note that a pin bar candlestick pattern is under way on the weekly chart, indicating a potential trend reversal. The retracement levels are highlighted here and fibonacci 0.382 is seen around 37.00 levels. A pullback rally might be materializing towards the above levels.

Trading plan:

Remain long stop @ 19.30 target is open.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP/USD on March 31, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair will continue to move down from the level of 1.2418 (closing of Friday afternoon's candle) with the first target at 1.2258, a retreating level of 23.6% (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this line, an upward movement is possible with a target of 1.2518, a retracement level of 61.8% (blue dashed line). From this level, a continuation of the upward movement is possible.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, a continuation of the down movement is possible with the first target of 1.2258, a retracement level of 23.6% (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this line, the upward movement is likely to continue.

Unlikely scenario: from a retracement level of 23.6% - 1.2258 (blue dashed line) work down with a target of 1.2096, a retracement level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for Gold for March 31, 2020

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Technical outlook:

Gold is seen to be trading around $1,615 levels at this point in writing with a negative bias, looking to break down below $1,600 levels. The rectangle highlighted on the above chart is resistance zone for any intraday rallies. The overall structure remains bearish for the yellow metal until prices stay below $1,703 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,703, while interim support is seen around $1,450 levels respectively. The recent boundary being worked upon is between $1,703 and $1,450. As seen here, Gold has risen through the fibonacci 0.618 retracement and almost reached the 0.786 resistance before pulling back. Another spike might push prices through $1,649/50 levels before reversing sharply. Please note that fibonacci extensions are pointing towards $1,298 levels going forward. If we go by the time line taken to form the above wave structure since $1,703 highs, Gold prices remain poised to reach $1,298 levels in the next 4-5 weeks.

Trading plan:

Remain short from yesterday @ $1,615/25. stop @ 1,703 target @ 1,298

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Dollar at a crossroads: two scenarios

The euro-dollar pair showed a downward track during the Asian session on Tuesday, but still remained within the 10th figure. Bears failed to break through the support level of 1,1010 yesterday (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on D1) – as soon as sellers touched this target, they attracted the attention of buyers, who returned the pair to the middle of the 10th price level. However, bearish sentiment still continues to dominate: today, EUR/USD again entered the ninth figure, trying to confirm the strength of the downward movement. Judging by the persistence of the bears, the pair will still drop a step lower, while the further vector of price movement is still in question.

By and large, the future fate of all dollar pairs will depend on the overall attitude of investors to the US currency. The rapid growth of the greenback in mid-March was caused by panic: the dollar became the only lifeline for which all investors simultaneously reached out, throwing off less liquid assets. Such excitement helped dollar bulls to survive difficult times, when the Federal Reserve lowered the rate at extraordinary meetings, launching the printing press along the way. The US currency simply ignored all the decisions of the Fed, maintaining the safe-haven status and the most popular currency in the world.

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However, further events were able to suspend the US dollar's growth – the Fed opened dollar swap lines with the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England and nine other central banks slightly reduced the excitement around the greenback. Jerome Powell announced a $700 billion quantitative easing program, and later lifted the threshold and made the program unlimited in amount. The Fed also opened credit lines for corporations, states, and local governments. The Fed chief noted that the current purchases of US Treasury and mortgage-backed securities will be expanded "as much as necessary". In addition, there are rumors on the market that in the event of further revaluation of the greenback, the G7 countries may take a coordinated decision to "curb" it, organizing, for example, a "big dollar sell-off".

This fundamental background made it possible for the EUR/USD bulls to take revenge, raising the price to the middle of the 11th figure. However, buyers also failed to rise above this level, against the backdrop of a failed online summit of EU leaders. In addition, the dollar is still considered by the market as the most reliable defensive asset, so as soon as the upward momentum began to fade, traders began to take profits, closing long positions.

The dollar has gradually gained momentum, but there is another side of the coin: important macroeconomic reports will be published this week in the US (ISM indices, Nonfarm payrolls, the number of applications for unemployment benefits, etc.), which may alert and scare traders from the US currency. According to preliminary estimates, the report results will be disastrous – for example, for the first time in many years, the growth rate of employment in the non-agricultural sector will fall into negative territory.

Thus, from a fundamental point of view, the pair was at a crossroads: on the one hand, the dollar retains the status of a defensive asset, on the other hand, it is potentially under the impact of extremely negative macroeconomic reports. For EUR/USD bulls, there is a risk that traders will ignore the weak figures, and against all odds will continue to invest in the US currency. However, the pair's bears are also exposed to a similar risk, especially if the releases turn out to be even worse than the extremely weak forecasts. In this case, the US economy will scare investors away from the dollar. Which of the two scenarios will be implemented is an open question. The answer can be found when the Nonfarms data is published at the end of the week.

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From a technical point of view, there is a similar picture of uncertainty: on the daily chart, the price is located on the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and the trend indicators have not formed any clear and unambiguous signals. However, if buyers still show character and the pair is consolidated above the 1.1070 mark (the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the Kijun-sen line on the daily chart), the Ichimoku indicator will form a bullish Parade of Lines signal - in this case, it will be possible to consider long positions with the goal of 1.1147 (the local high reached on March 27). But if the bears finally settle below the level of 1.1010 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on D1), then short positions will be prioritized here (with the goal of 1.0880) – with a high probability, the downward dynamics will strengthen, and the pair will reach the lower limit of the above cloud. Thus, the intermediate support level is 1.1010, while the stronger level is 1.0880 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1 coincides with the Tenkan-sen line). The price ceiling (resistance level) is the local high of 1.1147.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on March 31, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the pair will continue to move down with the first target at 1.0953, a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line). If this level is reached further, work up with the target of 1.1168, a retracement level of 61.8% (red dashed line). From this level, it is likely to continue to work up.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will try to continue its upward movement after a small pullback.

An unlikely scenario: from a pullback level of 38.2% - 1.0953 (red dashed line), work down with a target of 1.0993, a pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 03/31/2020 and trading recommendation

In fact, the dollar has been losing ground over the past week, and the main driving force for this has been the development of the situation with the spread of coronavirus in the United States. Yesterday, the dollar resumed its growth, which was due to both fundamental economic factors and the same coronavirus. It's just that the really bad news, to a greater extent, began to come from Europe again. Not only has the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in Italy exceeded 100,000, but Spain also took third place in this terrible anti-rating.

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If we talk about purely economic factors, the growth rate of pending home sales in the United States increased from 5.8% to 9.4%. And not only that, the data turned out to be significantly better than the forecasts, which indicated a slowdown to 1.5%, but also the previous data was revised upwards from 5.7%. An increase in the growth rate of pending home sales transactions indicates a high potential for sales growth.

Unfinished Home Sales (United States):

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Today, preliminary data on inflation in Europe will be in the spotlight, which should show a decrease from 1.2% to 0.7%. Such a rapid decline in inflation will undoubtedly intensify the talk about the need to reduce the refinancing rate of the European Central Bank. The very decline in inflation is clearly not optimistic. Moreover, as a result, the data may turn out to be slightly worse than forecasts, and inflation will slow down even more. This in particular is indicated by yesterday's data on Spain, where deflation is about to begin.

Inflation (Europe):

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The S&P/CaseShiller data on housing prices in the United States will boost the dollar even more, since the growth rate of these prices can accelerate from 2.9% to 3.3%. In combination with yesterday's data on pending transactions, a picture emerges of a combination of both sales growth and price increases. Nearly perfect conditions. So really, the dollar will have a lot of reasons for growth.

S&P/CaseShiller (United States) Housing Price Index:

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after the upward movement, the quote reached the level of 1.1150, where it slowed down and, as a fact, was corrected to the area of the psychological mark of 1.1000. In fact, we last returned the quote to the measure of last Friday, where the pivot point coincided with the current value. Regarding volatility, we see that market activity still remains high, steadily exceeding 100 points.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see that the quote has been in inertial fluctuations for two months now, where it is highly exposed to the external background.

We can assume a temporary fluctuation within 1.1000/1.1050, where in case of price taking lower than 1.0980, downward interest will resume in the direction of 1.0950-1.0900.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Short positions, we consider in case of price taking lower than 1.0980, with the prospect of a move to 1.0950-1.0900.

- Long positions, we consider the form of alternative transactions in case of price taking higher than 1.1060, towards 1.1080.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the minute and hour intervals occupy a downward position against the background of the price returning to the level of 1.1000. Daily periods signal purchases due to an earlier upward move of more than 400 points.

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USD Index Price Movement For March 31, 2020

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The US Dollar Index on 4 Hour Chart is now making a Market Maker Sell Model since the index has already broken out and closed below 101.08. From the technical viewpoint, since the CCI (30) has been already moving below the 100(1), 0(2), and -100(3) levels. As the price is moving below the downward slope 30-period Moving Average, we know exactly that USDX is trading under downward pressure. Now it aims to reach 98.26 as the nearest liquidity pool. As long as the index does not retrace upwards higher than 99.80, the 98.26 level is likely to be broken soon.

The overall bias of #USDX is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/GBP to reach 0.8866. Analysis for March 31, 2020

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The EUR/GBP pair is now making a Market Maker Sell Model on the 4-Hour Chart. The pair has already broken out and is moving below 0.9121. From the technical viewpoint, the CCI (30) has been already moving below this 3 important levels: 100, 0, and -100. Besides, the price has been already moving below the MA 30. All these conditions give us a sign that EUR/GBP has been already trading under downward pressure. For now, this pair is trying to reach 0.8866 (a previous day's low). As long as this pair does not retrace upward higher than 0.8987 and the CCI does not move above the zero level, 0.8866 is likely to be broken as the nearest liquidity pool.

The overall bias of EUR/GBP is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bottom is not yet visible and panic may intensify after the publication of macroeconomic reports; Overview of NZD and AUD

News about the slowing or increasing spread of COVID-19 around the world is currently the main impulse of the markets. Emergency measures to support national economies have been taken by all the leading countries, which act according to the common logic and take similar actions.

A global contraction in the global economy is becoming apparent despite the fact that data on trade and industrial production for March will not be published soon. The dynamics of PMI reduction does not give any other result than the recognition that the economic shock will be stronger than in 2008.

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A certain positivity follows from recent reports from Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal, which report a slowdown in the spread of the coronavirus. The experience of China shows that the active period can be reduced with due effort to two months, so the business is already beginning to prepare for a "life after the pandemic," assessing both the depth of the fall into the recession and the prospects for recovery.

The strong decline in the dollar over the past 10 days is primarily due to the fact that the spread of the virus in the United States is currently the main threat that can plunge the world into economic chaos. Yields on 10-year US Treasures stuck in the range of 0.6% -0.7% and investors fear that the publication of ISM reports on employment data in March this week will be worse than market expectations. The Dallas Fed report on business activity in March showed a drop from 1.2p to -70p, and although it more closely reflects the state of the US oil industry, there is no reason to believe that the services sector will withstand the attack of COVID-19.

The panic is increasing, so in the coming days, another wave of oil decline, growth in demand for gold and other protective assets is likely.

NZD/USD

Last week, the RBNZ announced the first QE program in its history, which is called the Large Asset Purchase Program (LSAP), began redeeming bonds, having previously cut the rate and eased the requirements for the core capital of banks.

The actions of the RBNZ completely repeat the measures of other large central banks, which, one by one, turn into a "lender of last resort". A certain positive effect was obtained, the government is implementing its aid package of 5% of GDP, however, the program can be expected to expand, as several countries have introduced measures of up to 10% of GDP.

The depth of economic decline is visible now. The business optimism index from the RBNZ fell in March from 19.4p to -63.5p, which is worse than during the 2008 crisis, the outlook for the near future is negative.

The quarantine in New Zealand will last at least 4 weeks. According to ANZ Bank estimates, the reduction in GDP in Q1 quarter can reach 5-6% of GDP, and in the 2nd quarter up to 17%. Such forecasts cannot provide any support for the New Zealand dollar. Although the CFTC report showed a minimal change in aggregate position, the estimated fair price started moving downwards.

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It is still higher than the spot, and therefore, the short-term impulse of NZD/USD can continue to the resistance of 0.6199, however, the long-term prospects of the kiwi will deteriorate. Under current conditions, it is logical to enter short positions from current levels with a stop of 0.6175 and a target of 0.5905 / 10.

AUD/USD

A strong 7% increase in the S & P / ASX 200 index on Monday is the result of the launch of the third government package of financial support for the economy, which includes wage subsidies for the most affected firms, the total aid package will reach $ 130 billion, or 6.5% of GDP.

The dynamics of the estimated fair price AUD is negative, so the current growth of AUD/USD is close to completion.

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The recommendations are the same as for NZD - the bullish momentum is close to exhaustion and the Australian currency is near the pivot point. The AUD will likely return to the zone 0.6020 / 70, after which there will be an increase in the downward movement, the subsequent targets are 0.5970 and 0.5870.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 31. COT reports indicate a clear lack of willingness to trade the British

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The British pound is still trading in a narrow channel, if you can say so, against the US dollar amid the absence of important fundamental statistics. However, today in the Asian session, the bears made an attempt to break below the 1.2315 level, but this did not bring them success. In the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for March 24, there is clearly no desire for traders to go to such a volatile market and take any action with the pound. There was a reduction in both long and short positions. According to the data, during the reporting week, there was a decrease in short non-commercial positions from 37,935 to 36,650, while long non-commercial positions also fell from 56,575 to 46,534, and the sharp collapse of the pound to the lows of 1985 indicates a void in the market and the lack of major local support at that time. As a result, the non-commercial net position also fell to 10,884 from 18,640. Today we are releasing important fundamental statistics on UK GDP for the fourth quarter, which is unlikely to be of serious significance for the future situation and for the market as a whole, since the entire focus is now shifted to the first quarter of this year, when the spread of the coronavirus began. At the moment, buyers will focus on holding the 1.2315 support, and as long as trading is above this level, demand for the pound will continue. Good data on UK GDP may lead to a temporary increase in the GBP/USD to the resistance area of 1.2487, the breakout of which will provide a direct path to the highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of a further correction of the pound to the level of 1.2315, you do not need to rush to open long positions. It is best to wait for the support test of 1.2150, or buy immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.1985.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound need to try to return the market under their control, and to do this, it is necessary to consolidate below the support of 1.2315. The first attempt to do this was unsuccessful today in the Asian session. A break of this level will lead to a larger sell-off of GBP/USD in the area of lows 1.2150 and 1.1985, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.1985 support test will also indicate the resumption of the bear market. In case bulls attempt to resume the upward trend, only the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2487 will be the first signal to open short positions. Otherwise, it is best to sell the pound on a rebound from the highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty with a further prospect of a pound decline.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2315 will lead to a larger decline in the pound. Growth may be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.2440.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 31. COT reports. Euro sellers are returning to the market. Aim for support

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Yesterday's data on the state of the European economy, together with reports from the Federal Reserve banks on the ground, discouraged buyers of the European currency from continuing to open long positions, which led to a fairly large downward correction in EUR/USD today in the Asian session. The bears are still aiming for 1.0957 support, which they will be aiming for today. The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for March 24 continue to record an increase in long positions, and a decrease in short positions, as well as a sharp increase in the delta, which indicates a revision of their attitude to the market and a change of mood among players. The reduction in short non-commercial positions occurred from the 114,638 level immediately to 91,070, while long non-commercial positions, on the contrary, jumped from 147,133 to 152,360. As a result, the non-commercial net position continued to increase its positive value, and amounted to 61,290, showing an increase of almost twice, which indicates a clear advantage of the bulls. Given the prices at which the euro is currently trading, we can expect the pair to continue growing after a slight downward correction. As for the intraday strategy, at the moment, the bulls need to return to the resistance of 1.1054, which will allow the pair to maintain an upward trend and lead to a repeated update of the high of 1.1145, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of further decline, you can safely return to long positions on the support test of 1.0957, counting on a rebound of 40-50 points within the day, or buy EUR/USD from a larger low of 1.0880, the test of which will mean a break in the upward trend.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers once again coped with the task of keeping the pair below the resistance of 1.1054 in the Asian session, which led to a larger sell-off of the euro in the area of yesterday's lows. However, at the reached level, the bears are unlikely to stop and their next goal will be a larger support of 1.0957, where I recommend taking profits. More persistent players will expect the euro to return to the low of 1.0880, the test of which will completely cancel out the entire bullish trend observed since the 20th of March. In the scenario of an upward correction of the pair in the first half of the day after the data on inflation in the eurozone, which, of course, is unlikely, you can still return to sales after a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1145, but I recommend opening new positions immediately for a rebound only in the 1.1231 area.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a downward correction after a large increase last week.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1054 will strengthen the demand for the euro. A break in the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.0985 area will lead to a new wave of euro decline.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 31. Fitch lowers ratings of Great Britain on the background of the raging epidemic

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 91.3539

On Monday, March 30, the GBP/USD currency pair worked out the Murray level of "3/8"-1.2451, but could not overcome it and rebounded from it, starting a downward correction. More precisely, a kind of downward correction. The Heiken Ashi indicator continues to color bars mainly purple, so there is no downward correction as such. The movement just stalled around the level of 1.2451, but the volatility of the first trading day of the week was 150 points... Well, from a technical point of view, the upward movement is now stopped and you need to wait for the level of 1.2451 to be overcome or other signs of an upward trend to resume trading for an increase. At the same time, both channels of linear regression are directed downward, so the trend in the long and medium-term plans is now downward. However, market participants are still in an overly excited state. And the reasons for this are clear and obvious. Quotes of "black gold" again rushed down. And low oil prices harm both the UK and US economies, as both countries are more exporters of "black gold" than importers. The COVID-2019 virus continues to spread across both countries, continuing to isolate not only their population but also the entire economy, keeping it in quarantine. And we have already said that the economy, unlike ordinary citizens, cannot be out of work for a long time. These people can be quarantined for as long as they want, as long as they have something to live for and something to eat. In developed countries, there are no problems with this yet. But the economy, if it is not moving for a long time, begins to simply deflate and collapse. And with the end of the quarantine and the epidemic, people will be ready to go to work at the moment. But not everyone will have a job after the quarantine because a month of downtime for any economy is 6-12 months of its recovery after. Thus, the panic mood among traders persists and remains quite justifiably.

There will be no important macroeconomic publications in the States today. Thus, traders will have to refocus their attention on the daily speeches of Donald Trump, as well as representatives of the health sector, who are trying to keep the media and the population informed of what is happening. In the UK, the publication of GDP for the fourth quarter is scheduled for Tuesday, March 31. As we have already mentioned in the article on EUR/USD, macroeconomic statistics for the periods up to March 2020 are not very interesting for traders right now. Therefore, even such an important report as GDP can and most likely will be ignored completely. According to experts' forecasts, the value is expected to be 1.1% in annual terms. Most likely, we will not see too large numbers now for a long time. Within 2020, for sure.

Meanwhile, the situation with "coronavirus" in the UK is not improving. According to the latest information, about 135,000 people were tested for the virus, 22,000 tested positive, and 1,408 deaths were recorded. The government informs about the agreement reached with machine-building concerns on the production and purchase of 10,000 artificial lung ventilation devices. In addition, about 20,000 former health workers decided to return to work because of the pandemic. "Thank you to the 20,000 former employees who are returning to the healthcare system. And thanks to 750,000 volunteers who help vulnerable groups of the population. Together we will meet this challenge," Boris Johnson wrote on Twitter.

At the same time, the international rating Agency Fitch downgraded the UK's long-term default ratings in national and foreign currencies. This downgrade means that the UK economy has suffered short-term damage from the COVID-2019 epidemic. In addition to the epidemic, there is still uncertainty about the future relationship between the Kingdom and the European Union. In 2020, GDP is forecast by Fitch analysts to fall by 4%.

US economy Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Monday that the US economy is facing a "difficult quarter" due to the epidemic, but now all fundamental indicators are normal. According to Mnuchin, now is a great time for long-term investment. In the near future, small businesses will receive instructions on obtaining loans, for which $350 billion has been allocated from the budget. If this money is not enough, then the administration of President Trump will request additional funding. Thus, the Finance Minister believes that the situation will begin to recover in the near future, and the economy will get some relief.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair has started to decline again in recent days, and this is good news. At the moment, the average value for the last five days is 310 points. However, the activity of traders on the pound/dollar pair still remains extremely high. On Tuesday, March 31, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2078 and 1.2698. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2207

S2 - 1.1963

S3 - 1.1719

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2451

R2 - 1.2695

R3 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe retains the prospects of an upward movement. Thus, purchases of the pound with the goal of the Murray level of "4/8"-1.2695 remain relevant now. You can exit the longs by turning the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to sell the British currency with the goal of 1.1719 if the bears manage to overcome the moving average. We remind you that in the current conditions, opening any positions is associated with increased risks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 31. The hit parade of macroeconomic reports for March starts today. Markets increasingly

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 55.1549

The second trading day of the week begins with a downward correction, which is signaled by the Heiken Ashi indicator. The blue bars of the indicator allows us to assume a decrease in the quotes of the EUR/USD pair. Since the current trend is characterized as an upward trend, a price rebound from the moving average is highly likely to trigger a resumption of the upward trend. We still can't say that market participants have calmed down. The volatility of the euro/dollar pair remains quite high, so although the fundamental background can not be called "causing panic or contributing to panic", nevertheless, how else can you call the state of the market when the volatility exceeds the average values by 3-4 times? Thus, even if this is not a panic in the literal sense of the word, it is still an overly excited state of the market. We are not saying that it is impossible to trade in such conditions. Just keep in mind that in normal times, the euro/dollar pair passes 40-60 points per day. Now, it is 150-250 points. Thus, if you do not forget about stop-loss orders, you can earn a very decent profit. The main thing to remember about money management is not to take unnecessary risks. Based on the current picture of things, we expect the upward trend to resume. Thus, the buy signals will be a rebound from the moving average or a reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator up.

We have repeatedly said that macroeconomic statistics do not have any impact on the markets. However, this judgment was primarily concerned with statistics for February. After all, it was in March that the epidemic became global, and who gave it the definition of "pandemic". Thus, it was in March that everything in the world changed, turned "upside-down". It is reasonable that traders are interested in reports for this month, and not for February, which the current rate of almost any pair simply does not match. First, we have seen reports on business activity in the countries of the European Union and the United States. A little later - data on applications for unemployment benefits in the weeks when the epidemic has already gained momentum in the States. If the data on business activity were approximately the same for both the US and the European Union (the manufacturing sectors simultaneously fell by several points, and the services sector – collapsed to multi-year lows), the data on unemployment in the States caused huge surprise and disappointment among traders and investors. But the month of March ends and April begins, so it's time to sum up the results of the third month of 2020. This week, traders will start receiving a large amount of data on the state of the US and EU economies.

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As often happens, everything starts with a "swing". Today, March 31, data will be published in Germany on the unemployment rate for March, as well as on the change in the number of unemployed in March. It is difficult for us to make a forecast of how these two indicators will change. After all, in the States, no one expected that within one week there would be 3.3 million applications for benefits at once. About the same can be true in Germany. Official forecasts are 5.1%-5.2% unemployment, which is not so bad at the current 5.0%. The change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits should be from 29,000 to 34,000. Here you should immediately note that if the forecasts of experts come true, these figures can be considered great in the current conditions and the number of applications will be the second largest in the last 5 years (see the graph above). Anyway, this is news only for Germany, one country from the entire European Union. Therefore, it is unlikely that they will cause any serious market reaction, however, we will be able to understand from these reports what to expect from the pan-European unemployment figures.

A little later, the European Union will publish the basic consumer price index for March and the main indicator of inflation. These values are only preliminary, but they can also have a high value for traders. It is naive to assume that in times of quarantine when the absolute majority of consumers spend money only on medicines and products, prices will increase. Thus, the forecasts speak in favor of slowing inflation in the EU to 0.7%-0.8% in annual terms. The core consumer price index will slow to 1.1%. Again, this is not bad. Despite the rather serious "signs" of reports, industrial production, GDP, unemployment, and labor market data are now more important. Thus, the EU's inflation indicators can be ignored.

What is waiting for the euro currency today? We believe that the pair will continue to trade with high volatility, as there are no prerequisites and reasons for calming the markets right now. "Coronavirus" continues to spread across the European Union and the States. The governments of these countries have already done everything they could, both financially and in monetary terms. Now it takes some time to evaluate the results of the measures taken. Thus, the markets will now again focus on official data on the spread of the epidemic. Unfortunately, so far there is nothing to brag about for humanity. According to the latest data, the number of cases of "coronavirus" in the world is almost 750,000. As we have said many times, the real numbers are even higher. Neither the States nor the most infected countries in Europe (Spain, Germany, Italy, France) show a decline in the rate of growth of the disease. Only in Germany can we note that the number of deaths is relatively low compared to other countries. However, this is unlikely to calm the markets. Donald Trump believes that the peak of mortality and morbidity will come in two weeks. If he's right, it takes about that long to find out if it's true. Well, all this time you need to believe and hope that the American President, who has never been famous for the accuracy of his forecasts, is right this time. The faster the rate of infection declines, the faster the global economy will begin to recover. And with it, oil prices and stock indices.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains at record high values but still continues to gradually decrease. The current average is 160 points and in the past seven days has shown volatility consistently below 200 points per day. On Tuesday, March 31, we expect a further decrease in volatility and movement within the channel, limited to the levels of 1.0871 and 1.1192.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0986

S2 - 1.0864

S3 - 1.0742

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1108

R2 - 1.1230

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair started to adjust. Thus, market participants are now advised to wait for the correction to complete and resume buying euros with the goals of 1.1108 and 1.1192. It is recommended to sell the EUR/USD pair not before fixing the price below the moving average line with the first goal of 1.0871. When you open any position, it is still recommended to be more cautious as the situation on the market remains turbulent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 31, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro begins to be determined with the choice of further movement after the previous six-day growth. On Monday, the support of the MACD line had been tested for strength on the daily chart, today it is broken down in the Asian session.

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To fix the decreasing condition, the price needs to go below the price channel line at 1.0967, at the point where this line coincides with the Fibonacci level of 38.2%. Overcoming the support opens the 1.0625 target - the line of the embedded channel, so vividly worked out on March 20-23. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator came close to the boundary with a decreasing trend.

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On the four-hour chart, overcoming the price of the first support at 1.0967 opens the intermediate target of 1.0875 - support of the MACD line. A pin below it opens a strategic target at 1.0625. The Marlin oscillator is already in the decline zone.

It opens short positions with the price overcoming 1.0967, s/l above the high of the day (1.1053), t/p in front of the 1.0625 target.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on March 31, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose by eight points on Monday, continuing to consolidate before the embedded line of the red price channel. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has slightly moved into the zone of positive values, but while this is not a signal for growth, a reversal can occur directly at the boundary of trends or just above it by natural fluctuations. There are no other signs of an expected reversal. When the price overcomes the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (0.6240), the 0.6410 target opens – the point of intersection of three lines: the Fibonacci level of 76.4%, the price channel line and the MACD indicator line, where it now aims. In case of a reversal, the target of the movement is the embedded line of the price channel at 0.5838.

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The divergence across Marlin took place on the four-hour chart, but the price is in no hurry to follow it. A slight price growth is possible (limited by the Fibonacci level of 61.8% on the daily chart), and then the divergence will become double, which will further raise the downward pressure.

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With overcoming the signal level of 0.6078, it is possible to open short positions with the 0.5838 target, s/l above the top of the current day. Opening long positions is associated with increased risk, but is possible with the price taking above 0.6240, aiming for 0.6410, s/l below the low of the current day.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com