NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 28, 2016

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On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 0.6760 (upper limit of the previous consolidation range) was mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6860, where a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed on March 18.

Note that a daily closure below 0.6760 was needed to allow a quick bearish decline towards 0.6550 (the depicted support level).

For those who missed the initial trade, another sell entry can be offered around 0.6760 if a bullish pullback is expressed. Initial T/P levels should be located at 0.6600 and 0.6540.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 28, 2016

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A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the price zone of 1.3170-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone is being manifested on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponded to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

The price level of 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) stands as a prominent support level to be watched for significant bullish rejection and a valid buy entry. It is already running in profits.

The price level of 1.3300 constitutes a significant resistance level to be watched for bearish price action. It corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend.

Hence, a valid sell entry can be taken if the current bearish rejection is maintained.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish breakdown below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the USD/CAD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 28, 2016

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On January 21, after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4340, evident signs of a bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, previous weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4340 again.

Bullish persistence above 1.4488 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615 where the most recent bearish swing was initiated.

As previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted demand zone (below 1.4340), the next demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided significant bullish rejection on February 26.

As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick were expressed around 1.3850 (prominent weekly demand level). That is why, a valid buy entry was suggested near the same level.

Recently, the price zone of 1.4340-1.4488 constituted a significant supply zone to offer evident bearish rejection.

Temporary bearish rejection was manifested via the previous weekly candlestick until March 16 when the price level of 1.4050 managed to push the pair again to the upside (note the lower tail of the previous weekly candlestick).

Note that bullish persistence above the price level of 1.4488 is needed to allow further bullish advancement towards 1.4620 to take place.

Otherwise, a quick bearish movement towards the price levels of 1.4060 and 1.3960 should be expected.

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A recent lower high was achieved around the level of 1.4530. This applied extensive bearish pressure against the price level of 1.4340.

Hence, an extensive bearish breakout below 1.4340 was expressed on the daily chart. GBP/USD pair looked oversold few weeks ago.

That is why, signs of bullish recovery and a profitable long entry were expected around 1.3850. A recent bullish swing was expressed towards the price levels around 1.4400.

On March 14, a recent bearish movement was initiated around 1.4350 (61.8% Fibonacci level). The nearest bearish target was located around 1.4050 where the current bullish swing was initiated.

Last week, the price level of 1.4488 was being challenged. It corresponded to 79.6% Fibonacci level and the backside of the depicted uptrend line.

If bullish persistence above 1.4488 was maintained, a quick bullish movement towards 1.4650 should have been expected (low probability).

On the other hand, traders were advised to wait for a daily closure below 1.4350 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the GBP/USD pair. T/P levels were already reached at 1.4150 and 1.4060.

Conservative traders were advised to look for bullish price action around the demand level of 1.4050 to BUY the pair. S/L should be located below 1.3950. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.4250 and 1.4350.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 28, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had been previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.

December's candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one, allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370.

In February, the price zone of 1.1350-1.1400 acted as a significant supply zone during the previous bullish pullback. Hence, another bearish rejection should be expected around the current price zone during the current bullish swing.

On the other hand, the level of 0.9450 will remain a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established on the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Consequently, a quick bullish movement started towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed.

A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was seen on the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue. Bullish targets were expected around 1.1320 and 1.1400 (recently visited).

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1320-1.1400 stands as a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair to offer bearish rejection and a valid sell entry.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid sell entry could be offered around the supply zone of 1.1320 - 1.1400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1460.

Conservative traders can wait for a pullback towards 1.1000 to buy the EUR/USD pair. S/L should be placed below 1.0940.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 28, 2016

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair continues moving downwards from the areas of 1.4349 and 1.4283. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.4349 to 1.4052, which coincides with the double bottom on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.4228 and 1.4283. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.4228 and 1.4283 as the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.4283 and 1.4050. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.4349. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.4052, the market will decline further to 1.3980. Additionally, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.3888. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.4349, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.4366.

Technical Levels:

  • R3: 1.4647
  • R2: 1.4513
  • R1: 1.4349
  • PP: 1.4186
  • S1: 1.4052
  • S2: 1.3888
  • S3: 1.3750
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 28, 2016

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 1.1198, while minor resistance is seen at 1.1176. Support is found at the levels of 1.1143 and 1.1111. Besides, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already been set at the level of 1.1198. Equally important, the EUR/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 1.1198, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Last week, the EUR/USD pair continued moving downwards from the level of 1.1200. The pair fell from the level of 1.1200, which coincides with the double top, to the bottom around 1.1111. In consequence, the EUR/USD pair broke support, which turned into strong resistance at the level of 1.1198. The level of 1.1198 is expected to act as the major resistance today. From this point, we expect the EUR/USD pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from the resistance level of 1.1198 towards the target level of 1.1143 so as to test the double bottom. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.1143, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below the level of 1.1143 in order to reach the second target at 1.1111. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.120, then this scenario may be invalidated.

Daily technical levels:

  • R3: 1.1393
  • R2: 1.1339
  • R1: 1.1252
  • PP: 1.1198
  • S1: 1.1111
  • S2: 1.1057
  • S3: 1.0970
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Gold analysis for March 28 , 2016

Overview :

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Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the $1,208.18 level. Our head and shoulders formation is still active and it has been progressing so far. Our first take profit level at $1,225.00 has been reached. Downward take profit level is set at $1,193.00 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). At the 30M time frame chart, I found weakness and a trendline that was broken upward . Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies. The first intraday take profit level is set at $1,208.30. The intraday resistance level is set at the price of $1,223.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,217.65

R2: 1,218.50

R3: 1,220.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,214.70

S2: 1,213.80

S3: 1,212.40

Trading recommendations for today: be careful when buying gold, watch for selling opportunities on rallies.

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Technical analysis of CAD/CHF for March 28, 2016

CAD/CHF broke below the 200 Moving average and it is currently trading lower suggesting that the trend is down.

Applying two Fibonacci channels, it is obvious that price broke below the 161.8% trendline of the ascending channel and lower trendline of the descending channel. Fibs, applied to the first corrective wave after the support (0.7400) breakout, suggests that the final target could be near 0.7270, where it crossing with the retracement levels of both Fib channels.

Consider selling CAD/CHF at the current level (0.7370), targeting either S2 (0.7300) or S3 (0.7270) as a final target. Stop loss should be just above R2 (0.7400)

Support: 0.7340, 0.7300, 0.7270

Resistance: 0.7365, 0.7400

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Technical analysis of GBP/CAD for March 28, 2016

After forming a double bottom near the 1.8500 support level, GBP/CAD started rising and formed a strong resistance near 1.8660. The resistance did not hold for a long time and was broken together with the 261.8% retracement trendline of the Fibonacci channel.

The Fibonacci retracement applied to the first corrective wave after the resistance breakout shows that price has not tested the 261.8% resistance level while 161.8% was broken. Today, price bounced off the S1 support and this could indicate that pair is ready to move further up.

Consider buying GBP/CAD on any small pullbacks towards S1, targeting either R1 (1.8790) or R2 (1.8855) as a final target. The stop loss should be just below S1.

Support: 1.8730, 1.8690

Resistance: 1.8790, 1.8855

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Analysis of EUR/NZD for March 28, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the 1.6660 mark. On the daily chart, the price is still trading in the defined trading range between the 1.6475 level (support) and the 1.6865 level (resistance). Also, there is no demand bar from Friday, which is a sign that buyers don't have power at this stage for further bullish momentum. According to the 1H time frame,I found signs of weakness around the price of 1.6720, which is a sign that we may see further downward movement on intraday bias. The first intraday downward target is set at at the price of 1.6620. Anyway, according to short-term prospective, wait for a successful breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6710

R2: 1.6735

R3: 1.6770

Support levels:

S1: 1.6635

S2: 1.6610

S3: 1.6570

Trading recommendation for today: There is downward pressure according to intraday time frames. However, the market is still sideways in the short-term prospective. Watch for a breakout of a trading range to confirm further direction.

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Technical analysis of Silver for March 28, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be consolidating after hitting lows at $15.10/13 levels last week. The metal should be looking to produce a corrective rally through $15.45 levels from here before reversing again. As depicted on the short term chart here, the metal should face resistance at the fibonacci 0.382 levels of the drop between $16.00 through $15.10 levels. Also note that the metal should be poised to resume heading lower towards $14.50/60 levels at least before completing its corrective drop that begun from $16.13 levels earlier. It is hence recommended to hold short positions and also look to add further at $15.45/50 levels, with risk at $15.75 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at $15.45/50 levels, while support is at $15.00/10 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at $15.75, target is $14.50/60.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for March 28, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold continues its drop lower as expected earlier and hits yet another low today around $1,207.00 levels before pulling back. The metal is seen to be trading at $1,215.00 levels for now, looking to consolidate before dropping to $1,190.00 levels. According to the structure presented here, the metal could rally towards $1,227.00 levels from here, before reversing lower. Please note that $1,227.00/28.00 is also the fibonacci 0.382 resistance of the recent drop from $1,260.00 to $1,207.00 levels respectively. It is recommended to hold short positions and look to add further with risk at $1,245.00 levels. Immediate resistance is at $1,230.00 levels while support is seen at $1,190.00 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, move stop to $1,245.00 levels, target is $1,190.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 28, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has rallied through 126.80/85 levels as expected and discussed last week. The pair is facing resistance at 126.85 and looking to reverse lower below 124.50 levels going forward. Please also note that bears would remain in control till prices stay below 127.30 levels. The pair is also seen stalling at the fibonacci 0.786 resistance of the drop between 127.25 through 124.50 levels respectively. It is recommended to book profits for any long positions taken earlier and look to go short with risk above 127.30 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 127.20/30 levels for now, while support is seen at 125.70 and 124.70 levels respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on long positions taken earlier and go short now with stop at 127.30/40 and target open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 28, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The intraday relative strength index is well directed above the neutrality level at 50 calling for a new upleg. As long as 113.30 holds as the key support, the pair should continue its rebound and rise towards the first upside target at 114 and the next target at 114.30.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 114 and the second one at 114.30. In the alternative scenario, a short position is recommended with the first target at 112.95 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 112.50. The pivot point is at 113.30.

Resistance levels: 114, 114.30, 114.75

Support levels: 112.95, 112.50, 112

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 28, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias as the pair is range-trading due to holidays. The pair is moving sideways above its key support at 0.9720. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is mixed to bullish. Upside is expected above 0.9720 at first. A break above this level would call for further advance towards 0.9820.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9820 and the second one at 0.9860. In the alternative scenario, a short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9685 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9650. The pivot point is at 0.9720.

Resistance levels: 0.9820, 0.9860, 0.9925

Support levels: 0.9685, 0.9650, 0.9610

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 28, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias in holiday trading. The pair is trading below its key resistance at 0.6640, and is likely to challenge it in sight, as the relative strength index is below the neutrality area of 50. Below 0.6745, look for a new drop to 0.6660 and 0.6625 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.666. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6625. The pivot point stands at 0.6745. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6790 and the second target at 0.6830.

Resistance levels: 0.6790, 0.6835, 0.6870

Support levels: 0.666, 0.6625, 0.66

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 28, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is seen to be trading around 1.3810/15 levels for now, after dropping to 1.3720 levels last week. Please note that the pair remains in the sell zone (below trend line resistance), even on smaller timeframes and is supposed to find resistance around 1.3850 levels. Also note that 1.3850 levels is the trend line and fibonacci 0.382 resistance as well as depicted here. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to short around 1.3850/60 levels, with risk above 1.3900 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.3720/25 levels, while resistance is seen through 1.4050 levels respectively. The pair is expected to remain in control of bears, at least for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, look to go short at 1.3850/60 levels, stop above 1.3900, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 28, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias in quiet holiday trade. The pair remains bullish above 160.00, representing a key horizontal level. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality area at 50 and is around 70, which should confirm a positive outlook. Hence, as long as 16.00 is not broken, a new rise seems to be on the cards to 161.30 and 161.85 in extension.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 161.30 and the second one at 161.85. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 159.05 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 158.40. The pivot point is at 160.00.

Resistance levels: 161.30, 161.85, 162.85

Support levels: 159.05, 158.40, 157.50

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 28, 2016

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When the European market opens, no economic news will be released from the eurozone today but the US will release some economic data such as Pending Home Sales m/m, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, the Goods Trade Balance, and the Core PCE Price Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1210.

Strong Resistance: 1.1204.

Original Resistance: 1.1193.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1182.

Target Inner Area: 1.1156.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1130.

Original Support: 1.1119.

Strong Support: 1.1108.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1102.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 28, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data but the US will release some economic data such as Pending Home Sales m/m, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, the Goods Trade Balance, and the Core PCE Price Index m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 114.11.

Resistance. 2: 113.88.

Resistance. 1: 113.66.

Support. 1: 113.39.

Support. 2: 113.16.

Support. 3: 112.94.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 28, 2016

EUR/USD: This pair has been bearish so far since last week. A movement below the support line at 1.1050 would easily render the recent bullish outlook invalid. It is expected that the EUR/USD pair would trend further south this week, so are most other EUR pairs.

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USD/CHF: What is happening on this currency trading instrument is best called a rally in the context of a downtrend. But the rally could continue this week, owing to the expected loss of stamina on the EUR/USD pair and the fact that CHF could become weak this week (please watch CHF pairs). A movement above the resistance level at 0.9850 would result in an undisputed bullish outlook.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument plunged by 400 pips last week, almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.4050. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56. The RSI period 14 is below the level 50. All this is a bearish indicator and the price would move further downwards this week, reaching the accumulation territories at 1.4050 and 1.4000. The outlook for GBP pairs is bleak for the week.

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USD/JPY: The perpetual bullish effort on the USD/JPY pair has already resulted in a "buy" signal. The price action on the chart subtly reveals some bullish propensity, although the market currently looks choppy. It is expected that the price would target the supply levels at 113.00 and 113.50 this week. It might even go beyond these targets.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair moved sideways throughout last week, not going below the demand zone at 125.00, nor going above the supply zone at 126.50. A breakout is imminent this week, which would most probably favor the bulls, because the outlook for JPY pairs is bright for the week. When there is a rally, the supply levels at 126.50, 127.00 and 127.50 would be attained.

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Gold technical analysis for March 28, 2016

Gold price has broken down the sideways channel since last week and remains in a short-term bearish trend targeting a bigger pull back towards $1,150-$1,100. Even if price reverses higher for a new higher high above $1,283, the upside is limited and a deep correction is due.

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Blue lines - sideways channel (broken)

Green line - resistance

Price is below the Kumo (cloud) in the 4 hour chart and is trending lower with bearish flag formations. A back test of the broken channel could be seen at $1,240 but I believe an important top is in and from now on any bounce should be sold as Gold is heading lower. Support is at $1,212 and resistance at $1,240. The 38% Fibonacci retracement of the $1,045 low is the most important support level in the short-term so a bigger bounce could be seen if we touch that area.

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Black lines - wedge formation

Green rectangle - important top areas

As I was bullish Gold near $1,050-$1,100 because there were bullish divergence signals in the weekly chart, now I am bearish despite the break above the Kumo (cloud) and the downward sloping wedge. Yes, Gold might have made a long-term reversal and important low at $1,045 but now it is time for this scenario to be tested. A strong pullback is expected in Gold as the upside is limited on a weekly basis. Important levels to watch for re-opening long positions are at $1,100-$1,150.

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USDX technical analysis for March 28, 2016

The Dollar index had a strong bullish week however price remains far below the last high at 97.05 and with bearish divergence signals in the short-term a pull back is highly likely. The Dollar index is still inside a complex overlapping structure both in the short-term charts and in the medium-term charts. This implies that we are still in a corrective phase and as long as we are above 92 it is still possible we just consolidate before the next big upward move.

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Green line - resistance

Last week the Dollar index rose towards the 4 hour Kumo (cloud) resistance in a straightforward manner. Oscillators have turned overbought and price has not managed to break above the resistance trend line that touches all previous tops. A pause in the up trend is expected this week. A pull back if not a new lower low is expected.

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Blue lines - sideways channel for the last year

The weekly candle of last week showed bulls are not giving up yet as price has managed to re-emerge above the upper cloud boundary resistance. Price however still remains inside the long-term sideways channel with no clear direction. Moreover price is still below the kijun- and tenkan-sen resistance indicators and still below the weekly high at 98.60. A break above that high will increase the chances of a larger degree breakout to new highs above 103-104.

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Daily analysis of USDX for March 28, 2016

The short-term picture is still facing the supply zone around the 96.20 level, where the Index has been finding strong resistance. However, we should note that a bullish consolidation above the 200 SMA is in place, but a decline towards the support level of 95.44 is still possible. The overall structure is still bearish and MACD indicator is supporting the main idea.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.70 / 97.04

H1 chart's support levels: 96.03 / 95.44

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.03, take profit is at 95.44, and stop loss is at 96.60.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 28, 2016

GBP/USD seems to have found strong support around the 1.4059, where it is showing a possible double bottom pattern in higher timeframes. The resistance zone of 1.4151 is still pushing lower to the pair and maybe we can see a breakout higher towards the psychological level of 1.4200, in an effort to correct the recent declines.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4151 / 1.4200

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4093 / 1.4056

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4151, take profit is at 1.4200 and stop loss is at 1.4100.

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