Technical analysis of EUR/USD pair for the week of April 27 to May 2

The pair has been declining for the past week and tested the pullback level of 76.4% - 1.0767 (red dotted line), but the weekly candle closed much higher - 1.0823. Now, for the upcoming week, the price from the level of 1.0823 (closing of the last weekly candle) may start to increase.

Trend analysis.

The price may move up this week, with the first target of 1.0887 - a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line). When this level is broken up, it is possible to continue working upwards with the target of 1.0956 - a pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).


Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - neutral;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is an upward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the EUR/USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of a lower shadow for the weekly white candlestick (Monday - up) and the presence of a second upper shadow (Friday - down).

The upper weekly target is 1.0936 - a pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely lower scenario: working down with the target of 1.0727 - lower fractal (blue dashed line) from a pullback level of 23.6% - 1.0825 (blue dashed line) is unlikely.

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GBP/USD Intraday high and low for APR 26, 2020


The intraday high and low from the Asia Range usually form on STDV 2-STDV 4 in the normal condition market but sometimes they can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6. Here are today's levels:

STDV 10 - 1.3062.

STDV 9 - 1.2999.

STDV 8 - 1.2936.

STDV 7 - 1.2873.

STDV 6 - 1.2810.

STDV 5 - 1.2747.

STDV 4 - 1.2684.

STDV 3 - 1.2621.

STDV 2 - 1.2558.

STDV 1 - 1.2495.

ASIA - 1.2432.


ASIA - 1.2369.

STDV 1 - 1.2306.

STDV 2 - 1.2243.

STDV 3 - 1.2180.

STDV 4 - 1.2117.

STDV 5 - 1.2054.

STDV 6 - 1.1991.

STDV 7 - 1.1928.

STDV 8 - 1.1865.

STDV 9 - 1.1802.

STDV 10 - 1.1739.

Pay attention to the previous day high 1.2376 with the previous day low 1.2298. All this levels can be a potential turning point.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 27 - 2020


Despite a break above minor resistance at 0.8722, EUR/GBP failed to consolidate at this level. It is re-testing the corrective low at 0.8709. We expect this support to protect the downside for a new rally above minor resistance at 0.8749 and more importantly a break above resistance at 0.8769/ It will confirm that a low is in place for a new rally to and above 0.9499.

Only an unexpected break below support at 0.8675 will change the 0.8621 target before the corrective decline from 0.9499 finally occurs and a new rally can begin.

R3: 0.8863

R2: 0.8779

R1: 0.8740

Pivot: 0.8724

S1: 0.8709

S2: 0.8675

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8765 with our stop placed at 0.8670

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 27 - 2020


The consolidation from 131.88 remains in place and a new test of the resistance-areas top near 133.68 can be expected before renewed downside pressure. We need a break below minor support at 131.88 to trigger downside acceleration towards 126.99 and below. Once the former low at 126.99 has been exceeded all requirements to the decline from 147.96 will have been fulfilled and a new impulsive rally to and above 147.96 may occur.

R3: 134.95

R2: 134.12

R1: 133.68

Pivot: 133.28

S1: 132.52

S2: 131.88

S3: 131.34

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 134.35 with our stop placed at 135.00. Upon a break below 131.88 we will move our stop lower to 134.00.

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Buyers of EUR and GBP trying to gain control over market. Forex forecast for April 27

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through the level of 1.0845, the euro is likely to gain ground to the area of 1.0882 and 1.0908

If the pair breaks through the level of 1.0816, the euro is likely to decline to the area of 1.0787 and 1.0760

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through the level of 1.2416, the pound is likely to gain momentum to the area of 1.2476 and 1.2512

If the pair breaks through the level of 1.2339, the pound is likely to go down to the area of 1.2264 and 1.2173

Fundamental data:

no news

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USD/CAD approaching 1st resistance, potential drop !


Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.4135

Reason for Entry: 50% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit :1.3996

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support , 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.4292

Reason for Stop loss: 100% fibonacci retracement, 50% fibonacci retracement

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 27/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been able to hit the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The level of 1.2446 might be a key short-term level for both bulls and bears as any violation of this retracement level will lead to another sub-wave up with a target at the levels of 1.2466, 1.2485 and 1.2493. Nevertheless, in order to continue the larger time frame up trend, the bulls must violate the swing high located at 1.2645 otherwise the current move up will be considered as a counter-trend correcive wave that will not last for long.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2379

WR2 - 1.2609

WR1 - 1.2480

Weekly Pivot - 1.2357

WS1 - 1.2228

WS2 - 1.2104

WS3 - 1.1970

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).


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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 27/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the level of 1.0727 and is climbing higher step by step towards the key short-term resistance located at the level of 1.0878. However, before the bulls will hit this resistance, there is a local techncial resistance level located at 1.0846 that must be ciolated first. The momentum is still strong and positive and market conditions are not overbiught yet, so the odds for another wave up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1057

WR2 - 1.0976

WR1 - 1.0895

Weekly Pivot - 1.0809

WS1 - 1.0731

WS2 - 1.0641

WS3 - 1.0563

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).


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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 27/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The main producer of Bitcoin mining chips, Ebang, has made the first IPO offer worth $ 100 million to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company is trying to distribute class A shares with a nominal value of $ 0.00013 per share. The company plans to appear on the Nasdaq global stock exchange or the New York stock exchange under the slogan EBON. These plans take place almost two years after the company attempted to launch the $ 1 billion initial public offering in Hong Kong. In 2019, 82% of Ebang's revenues came from ASICs and wireless integrated circuits for miners.

Ebang's annual revenues were $ 109 million last year. Falling demand for mining equipment caused a 66% drop in growth from $ 319 million in 2018. Gross profit fell from $ 24.4 million in 2018, to $ 30.6 million gross loss last year. Sales of Ebang coins dropped from 415,930 at an average price of $ 737, to 289,953 coins for $ 304.

Ebang claims that the demand for its products is directly related to Bitcoin price fluctuations, as the market requirements and unit price of Bitcoin mining machines are correlated with the economic returns of these machines, and above all depends on the price of Bitcoin. The increase in BTC will generally increase market demand for mining machinery, which in turn will allow Ebang products to be valued higher and vice versa. The documentation shows that Ebang has completed the design of its own 8 nm and 7 nm ASC systems, adding that it is ready for mass production of 8 nm units when, he said, market conditions will become appropriate.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been testing the recent swing high located at the level of $7,707 for all the weekend and is currently hovering around this level. In a case of a further breakout, the next target is seen at the level of $7,897, but there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscilator at current levels. If bears will push the prices lower, they can hit the next techncial support located at the level of $7,385 and below.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,046

WR2 - $8,348

WR1 - $8,040

Weekly Pivot - $7,352

WS1 - $7,064

WS2 - $6,356

WS3 - $6,047

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.


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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 27/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Dutch crypto savings platform, Bittr, decided to close its operations before the Netherlands introduced EU anti-money laundering regulations, AMLD5. The closing of Bittr is the result of open criticism of AMLD5 in the Netherlands, where according to all information they result in cryptographic companies paying higher fees than companies offering credit cards and traditional trusts. Bittr founder Ruben Waterman announced that the platform will close on April 28.

Waterman does not agree to being forced to collect confidential data identifying his clients. While Waterman says he was willing to make some of the changes commissioned by AMLD5, he also claims that his company does not have the resources to manage the documentation or the resources to hire a clerk to handle the case. It is worth adding that Bittr is a one-man operation.

While the AMLD5 was intended to increase regulatory transparency at the regional level, by introducing a unified AML framework, various laws at the national level led to unique interpretations of AMLD5 in different jurisdictions.

The new guidelines require approximately 50 crypto companies based in the Netherlands to pay central bank supervision fees of approximately $ 1.8 million, and the costs be allocated according to the turnover of each company's virtual currency.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD bulls has managed to push the price towards the level of $198, which is very close to the key short-term resistance level. The rate is moving inside of a Falling Wedge pattern, so any violation of the level of $193.78 will likely result in a further sell-off towards the level of $188.86 and below. There is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum indicator that supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $243.80

WR2 - $220.39

WR1 - $211.16

Weekly Pivot - $187.55

WS1 - $172.98

WS2 - $155.34

WS3 - $144.09

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.


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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 27. Bulls continue to push the euro to resistance 1.0845

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The sharp turn of the market after Friday's data on the economy of the eurozone and the US indicates how uneasy the situation is now. I stated in my US session forecast that I advise you to open short positions from the resistance of 1.0818, the test of which resulted in the euro's downward correction to the support area of 1.0787. The moment of entering and exiting the market is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. At the moment, the bulls have managed to regain the 1.0816 level and are trying to build a new upward trend from it to the resistance area of 1.0845. The primary task of buyers for the first half of the day will be a breakout and consolidation above this level, which will open a direct path to the highs of 1.0882 and 1.0908, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro falls under the support of 1.0816 in the European session, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of the low of 1.0787, or buy EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from the area of 1.0760.


To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Since there aren't any fundamental data set for release today, sellers of the euro are not in a rush to return to the market, waiting for a test of larger resistances. Forming a false breakout in the area of 1.0845 will be a signal to open short positions. However, more importantly, sellers are supposed to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.0816, which will raise the pressure on the euro and push it to the lows of 1.0787 and 1.0760, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD grows above the resistance of 1.0845 in the morning, it is best to go back to short positions for a rebound from the high of 1.0882, and then, count on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.


Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth may be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0845. In case the euro falls, it is possible to open long positions for a rebound from the lower border of the indicator in the 1.0770 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 27. Bad news for the pound doesn't scare buyers. Bulls aim for a breakout

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Buyers of the pound were not frightened by data which showed a sharp decline in UK retail sales, as they won the fight for 1.2339. At the moment, while trading is above this level, we can expect growth and a test of resistance at 1.2416. However, a breakout and consolidation above this range is a more important task, which will make it possible to resume the upward trend along with a test of highs 1.2476 and 1.2512, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD returns to support 1.2339, it is best to look at long positions only after forming a false breakout at this level. I advise buying GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from a weekly low in the area of 1.2264, and then, counting on an upward correction of 30-40 points within a day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers retreated from the market, allowing the bulls to approach resistance at 1.2416. The main task is to protect this level, and forming a false breakout in this range will be a signal to open short positions in order to return to the middle of the channel 1.2339. An equally important goal is to break through this range, after doing so it will be possible to open new short positions with the aim of testing the lower border of the upward correction channel 1.2264 and continuing to pull down GBP/USD to the low of 1.2173, where I advise taking profits. Under the GBP/USD growth scenario in the first half of the day, you can also return to short positions after a test of a high of 1.2476 or even higher, from a large resistance of 1.2512 counting on a correction of 30-40 points inside the day.


Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which means preserving a small advantage for buyers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

If the pound declines, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2305.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
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EUR/CAD approaching support, potential bounce!


Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.51308

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing low support, 1.618% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.54883

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.49057

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

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GBP / USD forecast for April 27, 2020


The British pound has been growing unevenly over the past four days to the point that the Fibonacci level 138.2% coincides with the MACD line, which is at the price level of 1.2425. With its development, price may turn down to targets 1.2235 and 1.1935 - Fibonacci levels of 161.8% and 200.0%. On the other hand, consolidation at the level of 1.2425 opens up growth to the upper target levels adopted at Fibonacci levels: 1.2540, 1.2645, 1.2725.


On the four-hour chart, the price exceeded the balance indicator line, and the Marlin oscillator is also growing. At first glance, the price has significant potential for growth, however, the technical levels of the higher scale may turn out to be stronger, so a reversal is also possible. Nevertheless, we are waiting for the development of events and are not in a hurry to open trading positions.


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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 27, 2020


The euro grew by 45 points last Friday in preparation for a new busy week - decisions by the Fed and the ECB on monetary policy are ahead, and investors need to draw an intermediate balance in the strength and effect of these central banks in influencing the exchange rate of the euro and the dollar.


The signal line of the Marlin oscillator again lies in the horizon below the border with the growth territory on the daily chart. The potential for pulling down both the oscillator and the price remains, since the price is below the balance and MACD indicator lines and the MACD line (blue) strengthens the downward slope. The main objective of the euro at 1.0605 along the price channel is relevant.


The price is approaching the upper limit of the local price channel on the four-hour chart and now the euro is facing three scenarios: to turn down from current levels, which could help display the balance line (red), keeps the price in a negative trend reversal within the 1.0825/95 range, marked as a gray rectangle, that would mean testing the consolidation zone of 16-22 April, and output over the MACD line (1.0895) with the intention to work out strong resistance at 1.0940 on the daily chart.

According to Marlin, convergence is formed on the H4, the signal line is already in the growth zone, but here, a reversal could also occur from the upper boundary of the oscillator's own channel.

In general, there are more technical prerequisites for a decline. But the price could freely wander until Wednesday, when the Fed's decision on monetary policy is announced. The ECB meeting seems more predictable, namely the fact that nothing new will be announced on it.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 27, 2020


The Australian dollar grew today in the Asian session, after it overcame the price channel line last Friday. The target for growth is the upper line in the region of the target mark of 0.6526. From this point, the aussie can turn down, as the price outpaces the growth of the Marlin oscillator and it can form a divergence.


The price went above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is growing. We are waiting for the price at the target 0.6526.


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Forecast for USD/JPY on April 27, 2020


The Japanese yen continues to trade in a narrow range under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart, but now the price is already below the line of the price channel, which slightly, but still raises the likelihood of reaching immediate support at 106.70. Overcoming support opens a more significant goal along the price channel in the area of 102.40. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon inside its own wedge.


The Marlin oscillator has consolidated in the negative trend zone on the four-hour chart. As the price overcomes the signal level 107.30 (low of April 17 and 21), the movement to the first target will likely be 106.70.


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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 27. The UK failed to prepare for the "coronavirus" epidemic. Responsibility is placed

4-hour timeframe


Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: 8.1909

On April 27, the British pound continues to adjust to the moving average line, from which it previously rebounded. Thus, the downward movement has not been resumed yet, and the Heiken Ashi indicator continues to color the bars purple. Thus, we are waiting for either a rebound from the moving average or its overcoming, which will determine the fate of the pair for the next few days. On the first trading day of the week, no important macroeconomic publications are planned in the UK and the United States. Therefore, the fundamental background will again be represented by unplanned speeches and comments from top officials. This is especially true for Donald Trump, who "goes on the air" almost every day, and his Twitter account is updated every few hours.

Meanwhile, the situation with the COVID-2019 virus is improving only on paper. In practice, almost 3 million cases of the disease and more than 200 thousand deaths from the pandemic have been recorded in the world. The US is still the leader in the number of infections but the UK is not losing the growth rate of the epidemic. In the Foggy Albion, 154,000 cases of the disease have already been recorded, so in the next few days, Britain can overtake Germany and reach the fifth place in the world in terms of the number of patients. Also, the UK has a fairly high death rate - much more than 10%, while scientists around the world conclude that the average death rate should not exceed 3-5%. And in many countries like Germany, it really does not exceed 3-5%. But in the UK, things are much worse. Health officials believe that the country's government completely failed to prepare for the epidemic and for a long time refused to take into account the full danger of the virus. That is why in the coming weeks, it is Britain that can become a hotbed in Europe. The blame for what is happening is laid personally on Boris Johnson, who himself has only recently recovered from the virus and will take up his duties as Prime Minister today. Some British publications have even conducted entire investigations to find out why there is such a large number of infected people in Britain and such a high mortality rate (which, we will remind, also does not take into account deaths outside medical institutions). The journalists concluded that, first of all, the country was not prepared for an epidemic of this kind. No preparations for a possible epidemic have been made for many years, and the stocks of personal protective equipment have not been replenished, updated, and in the end, many of them have expired. Secondly, the government of Boris Johnson for a long time refused to take seriously the signals of virologists about the severity of the disease and its highest level of transmission. Thus, according to experts, the country lost about five weeks at the very beginning.

Boris Johnson is personally charged with a lack of leadership qualities in difficult times for the country. It is reported that at the beginning of the year, he was not present at any meeting of "Cobra". "COBRA" - "Cabinet Office Briefing Room A" - "Room A of the Cabinet of Ministers". This is an emergency government committee that meets only in emergencies. So the Prime Minister did not attend any meetings of the emergency committee, transferring his responsibilities to Matt Hancock, the Minister of Health. Johnson was defended by Michael Gove, who said that the presence of the Prime Minister is not necessary at such meetings.

At the same time, according to the investigation, the British authorities were unable to reach an agreement with the British trade health association, which is represented by 500 manufacturers. According to the association, the companies were ready to produce and supply the UK health sector with the necessary amount of personal protective equipment and all the necessary tools to fight the epidemic, but applications for delivery began to be considered only on April 1. Therefore, British manufacturers supplied protection products to other countries. Sources close to the Prime Minister also report that Boris Johnson did not attend any emergency meetings, spent a lot of time at his country residence, and did not work at all on weekends. Later, the authorities admitted that 20,000 "deaths" from the epidemic would not be considered a bad result. And British doctors believe that Britain will come out of the fight against the epidemic with one of the worst results in the world.

The investigation also cites the example of many other countries where the COVID-2019 virus was taken seriously from the very beginning. For example, in Taiwan, almost from the very beginning, they began testing and tracking all potentially infected people. As a result, as of mid-April, less than fifty infections were recorded in the country. South Korea is an example of how you can resist a pandemic without even imposing a quarantine. The country's authorities also immediately began conducting mass testing and tracking contacts of people who became ill, which led to a sharp reduction in the number of cases and the pandemic was brought under control in record time. And the UK, along with Italy, France, and Spain, which also "failed" the beginning of the pandemic and preparation for it, are now reaping the fruits of their mistakes.

Thus, in general, the conclusions for Britain are not comforting. We assumed last year that Boris Johnson is not the best candidate for the post of head of the country. Now it is his government that has failed to prepare for and confront the epidemic. Brexit threatens to be "hard", which negates all the efforts of the British Parliament for three years, which blocked the Prime Ministers' attempts to withdraw the country from the European Union without a clear agreement. But Johnson has found a way to circumvent parliamentary blockages and now refuses to extend the "transition period", and the negotiations, despite video conferences by Michel Barnier and David Frost, can be considered put on pause. Thus, the British economy can already suffer more than the rest, and given the situation with Brexit, it can generally have a very hard time. Well, let's see if the British people were right when they voted for Johnson's party on December 13, 2019 on the principle of "just to finish Brexit faster".


The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair has stopped decreasing and is currently 116 points. In the last 20 trading days, the pair almost every day passes from 100 to 200 points. Therefore, we can say that volatility is now stable. On Monday, April 27, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2248 and 1.2480. A downward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate the end of the upward correction within the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2329

S2 - 1.2268

S3 - 1.2207

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2390

R2 - 1.2451

R3 - 1.2512

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started to adjust on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, traders are advised to consider selling the pound on Monday with targets of 1.2268 and 1.2248, after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to consider purchases of the British currency not before fixing traders above the moving average with the first goal of the Murray level of "4/8"-1.2451.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 27. Donald Trump has found a third culprit in the spread of "coronavirus" in the United

4-hour timeframe


Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -37.6305

The EUR/USD currency pair starts the new week with a corrective movement. At the moment, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair have increased to the moving average line, so the question now is: will the pair rebound from the moving average, which will allow the downward movement to resume? From a technical point of view, the odds are 50/50. If the rebound - then a further downward movement, if the overcoming - then a continuation of the upward movement with the prospect of forming a new upward trend. In macroeconomic terms, the first trading day of the week will be completely empty and uninteresting. Usually, these days are used by traders for correction. However, firstly, the correction has already started on Friday, and secondly, market participants still ignore almost all the macroeconomic information, so an "empty" Monday is not a big disappointment for them. Thus, in the first place on April 27 will again stand "technique".

Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who, according to many media outlets, was embarrassed at his last briefing at the White House, when he began to reflect on the treatment of the human body with injections of disinfectants and sunlight, took offense at the journalists. On Saturday, the US President refused to hold a daily briefing, and later wrote on Twitter: "What is the point of holding a White House press conference if the media asks nothing but hostile questions, and then refuses to accurately report the truth or facts? They get record ratings, and Americans get nothing but fake news. Not worth the time and effort."

A few days ago, we already wrote that Donald Trump stopped funding WHO, accusing this organization of mistakes in countering the spread of the COVID-2019 virus, and then accused China of the fact that the "coronavirus" could get released completely by accident, and the Chinese authorities did not notify the whole world in time about the scale of the disease and that the virus is capable of being transmitted from person to person. Trump also accused China of distorting the facts, which also contributed to the spread of the virus around the world. "If there was no mistake, then China must answer for its actions," the US leader said, and many European leaders agree with him, whose countries are also suffering huge losses due to the pandemic and quarantine. However, at the same time, we said that Trump needs "scapegoats" in order to approach the elections in November "clean". After all, the "coronavirus" destroyed the main trumps of the American President – strong economic growth and GDP, the lowest unemployment in the last 50 years, and the strongest state of the labor market. Of these three trumps that could have helped Trump win, he now has nothing on his hands. Accordingly, what will the US leader say to his voters when the election campaigns begin? Of course, he can always claim that before the outbreak of the epidemic, there were excellent results of his work. However, voters have always been interested in specific victories and achievements of the leadership, not explanations of why everyone is living poorly now. Trump understands this and is preparing now. Search for "guilty" that the American economy is declining, and the number of unemployed for the month exceeded 20 million. Following the WHO and China, it was reported that the administration of Donald Trump is considering the possibility of resigning the head of the Ministry of Health, Alex Azar. It is reported that the White House is not happy with Azar's actions in countering the epidemic. Personally, the US President is not happy with the fact that at the very beginning of the epidemic, Azar personally assured Trump that the virus does not pose a great threat to Americans. It is also reported that Azar fired the head of biomedical development, Rick Bright, who was developing a vaccine against "coronavirus". At the same time, the administration itself stressed that they are not going to replace Azar. Thus, while these are just rumors, however, in the case of Donald Trump, "there is no smoke without fire."

Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden, the main rival in the struggle for the presidency, believes that Donald Trump will try by all means to postpone the 2020 election to a later date. Despite the fact that right now Trump has the highest political ratings, Joe Biden believes that the President "will try to somehow postpone the election, come up with some reason not to hold them." Also, the main candidate from the Democrats believes that Russia can interfere in the election. The Democratic Party in the face of a pandemic has offered to allow Americans to vote by mail. However, the Republican Party refuses this option. Biden also said that it is just beneficial for Trump to have as few Americans as possible vote in the election if they can't be rescheduled. "This is the only way he can keep the President's seat," the politician summed up.

The former Vice President also criticized Donald Trump for not sending enough aid to cities and states to prevent the firing of public employees, such as firefighters, teachers, and police officers. Biden also resents the fact that the American President does not check the process of spending funds on business assistance programs. "There is no supervision. Trump has made it clear that he is not interested in checking the expenditures. The last thing he wants is for someone to keep track of exactly where the $ 500 billion is going," Biden said. The Democrat also criticized "greedy corporations" that have to be saved for the second time and that live only thanks to American taxpayers.

Thus, 2020 for America promises to be extremely turbulent and at the same time interesting. Given the nature of Trump, it is unlikely that he will simply take and leave the chair of the US President. For sure, he will try to win the election a second time by any means and methods. And we all know what methods Trump has. Thus, the upcoming elections promise to be the most interesting in the history of the United States. However, "coronavirus" can really interfere with the elections. However, it is not yet known how likely the option of postponing the elections is from a legislative point of view.


The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of April 27 is 77 points. Volatility, therefore, remains average in strength, and there is no reason to expect a new wave of panic yet. Today, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0744 and 1.0898. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal the end of the upward correction cycle.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0864

R2 - 1.0986

R3 - 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is adjusted against the downward trend. Thus, traders are now recommended to trade down again with targets of 1.0742 and 1.0620, but after the price rebounds from the moving average. It is recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the first goal of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on April 27



The pound/dollar pair continues to trade in a downward direction on the hourly chart on April 27. The quotes of the GBP/USD pair were pinned below the upward trend line last Friday, which made it possible for us to assume that both the downward movement and trend would continue. However, instead, the pair slightly grew and worked out the Kijun-sen line for the 4-hour timeframe and got close to the downward trend line, which is stronger and long-term. Thus, as in the case of the euro, we are waiting for either a downward turn or a break in the trend line in this area, which will determine the pair's trend for the next few days.

There were no statistics from the UK last week. Nor will it be this trading week, except for the only report on business activity in the manufacturing sector on Friday. Thus, focus will be on overseas data, which you won't find in the first two trading days of the week. Trading can be quite calm on Monday and Tuesday. Even a flat is possible. In general, it is not possible to say that one of the currencies is advantageous than the other. The US dollar sharply grew in the period of March 9-19, but the pound sterling subsequently recovered by 70%. Now, we can say that the future fate of the pair is being decided both in the long term and in the medium term. Thus, on April 27, we also have three possible scenarios for the development of the event, two of which involve specific trading signals:

1) The initiative for the GBP/USD pair remains in the hands of sellers, as the price continues to be below the downward trend. Therefore, we expect a clear rebound from this line today with the subsequent resumption of the downward movement. In this case, we recommend selling the pound with a view to the support level of 1.2240 at the 4-hour timeframe, near which it will be possible to take profits. Potential to Take Profit - 110 points.

2) Buyers can expect to open trading deals if the pair consolidates above the downward trend. This should be an eloquent and clear overcoming, unambiguous. In this case, we recommend buying the pound/dollar pair with the goal of the Senkou Span B line - 1.2467 with an intermediate target near the level of 1.2416, from which the price previously rebounded several times from above, and now can rebound from below. In this case, you can Take Profit from 30 to 80 points.

3) The third option does not imply opening new deals - if quotes smoothly continue to move along the Kijun-sen line and overcome the trend line by moving sideways. In this case, flat and do not open new positions.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on April 27



The euro/dollar continues to trade inside the downward channel on the hourly chart on April 27. The pair reached its lower limit and rebounded from it on Friday, which formed another reference point of this channel. The pair's quotes are now approaching its upper line, from which a rebound could also follow. Thus, the pair's prospects for Monday-Tuesday come down to how traders will behave in the area of the upper line of the downward channel. Several options are possible at once, which will be considered at the end of the article.

From our point of view, the euro may continue to remain under pressure from traders, as macroeconomic statistics from the European Union are weak, but most importantly, the European Council failed to agree on sources of funding for a stimulus package of around two trillion euros. And if it was not possible to agree, then no assistance will be provided yet. The longer it takes to resolve this issue, the more potentially the EU economy will contract. This is the main fundamental factor that can force market participants to start new purchases of the US currency. The second main factor in the strength of the dollar is the blind faith of traders and investors in this currency. These factors can be crucial for the pair on Monday and Tuesday. However, everything could change near the middle of the week, as both the EU and US will hold their own respective central bank meetings this week. Such high-profile events can bring new and potentially very important information to the currency market, which can be taken into account by market participants. Thus, the second half of the week can be very hot, given the large number of important macroeconomic reports.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for April 27 and one additional option:

1) In order for bears to resume the downward movement, you need to bounce off the top line of the downward channel or just turn down near it. Such a reversal or rebound, followed by consolidation below the critical Kijun-sen line (1.0805) is a signal to sell the euro while aiming for the first support level for the 4-hour chart at 1.0733. The potential to Take Profit in this case will be about 80 points.

2) The second option - bullish - involves overcoming the downward channel with a subsequent upward movement and changing the trend to an upward one. In this case, traders are advised to buy the euro with the aim of the upper line of the Ichimoku Senkou Span B cloud, which is a strong resistance. The potential to Take Profit in this case is about 60 points.

3) The Third option does not imply a trend movement and a test. A flat is also possible in the first two trading days of the week, and if the pair moves along the Kijun-sen line without a clear rebound from the upper line of the channel or without a clear anchor above it, then neither buyers nor sellers will receive a signal.

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GBP/USD. Preview of the week. Fed meeting, comments by Jerome Powell, US GDP


The British pound corrected against the dollar in the last three days. Thus, the correction took on a rather protracted character, especially since the quotes failed to overcome the critical Kijun-sen line, which initially was not too far away. We can assume that now the pair's traders are at some crossroads. Bulls have no special reason to buy the British currency, especially after a sufficiently long strengthening of this currency (albeit a correction one). Bears are in no hurry with new sales. Thus, the next week will help market participants decide on the direction. We already mentioned in the EUR/USD article that there will be plenty of macroeconomic events in the coming week. This applies to the United States, but not to the UK. Great Britain will not publish important statistics throughout the trading week. Thus, all hope is for data from across the ocean. The first two trading days will be empty, if you do not take into account secondary indicators of the level of consumer confidence or the housing price index in the United States. The market will begin to receive critical and interesting information on Wednesday.

First, annual GDP data for the first quarter will be published in a preliminary estimate. According to experts, the main indicator of the state of the US economy will decrease by 4%. But we are not even interested in these figures, but in the discrepancy between the forecast values and the real one. After all, the actual value may be much lower. Since this indicator is quite important, traders can make an exception and work on this report. The release of relatively important indices of personal consumption expenditures and prices of personal consumption expenditures for the first quarter is planned for this day. However, we believe that market participants will not pay much attention to this data. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the key rate and a press conference will be held late in the evening. These events, along with the ECB meeting, will be the most important Market participants do not expect the key rate to be lowered (although there may certainly be surprises). So the main intrigue is what will Jerome Powell say in his speech after the FOMC meeting? We expect to receive information on the central bank's plans from Powell and Lagarde. Although the US government continues to pour trillions of dollars into the economy, judging by unemployment and many other indicators, the best it could do is to slow down the pace of economic decline. Thus, the US economy continues to need stimulus. And who, if not the Fed, should carry out this stimulation? Thus, Powell may hint at possible new concessions, and the Fed's inflation and GDP forecasts can help assess the magnitude of the impact of the pandemic on the US economy. In general, there will be a lot of information on Wednesday and all of it will be important.

There will be fewer macroeconomic publications on Thursday, but a single report may be enough to put pressure on the US currency. The next report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released on this day. The report, to which no one paid attention two months ago, has now become one of the most significant. An additional 3.5 million initial applications are expected in the week of April 24th. Thus, in six weeks, the total number of initial appeals will reach 30 million of the 160 economically active population in America. Many experts believe that the secondary applications for unemployment benefits are more significant. It displays the number of repeated applications from people who already receive benefits, that is, they are really unemployed. It is expected that the total number of secondary applications for the week of April 17 (this indicator is a week late) will be 18.1 million. Thus, this figure will exceed 20 million in a week. In general, the situation is disappointing and it will be difficult for the US currency to show growth next week against the euro and the pound. Another conversation is that the situation in European countries is no better. Thus, traders, if they begin to work out statistics, will analyze which country will experience a greater economic decline. If market participants continue to ignore the statistics with the same persistence, then everything will depend on the banal desire or unwillingness to buy the greenback which is considered the safest in times of crisis, next week.

At the beginning of the article, we wrote that no economic information is expected from the UK this week. But there will still be one report that can formally draw the attention of traders to itself. We are talking about the manufacturing index of business activity for April that is set to be released on Friday. However, its final value is unlikely to differ much from the preliminary one published earlier. Thus, most likely, it will collapse down to 32.4-32.8. The report on US business activity indices is also planned for this day. Markit is expected to reduce 36.4-36.9 in the manufacturing sector, while according to ISM - a reduction to 36.7-40.0. Thus, in general, the whole week will be a failure for both the British pound and the US dollar. The only question is which country will face the worst. The dollar is the number one candidate for a fall. But everything will depend on the actions and comments of the Fed, as well as on new statements by Donald Trump.

The last thing I would like to note is the resumed negotiations on Brexit. However, Michel Barnier said last week that London is not in a hurry with the proposal of alternative options, and rejects the proposals of Brussels. Thus, the chances of concluding agreements in at least some areas before July 1 are small. Boris Johnson (his government) again made a statement that the "transition period" will not be postponed, despite the pandemic and the crisis that it caused.


In technical terms, the pair began an upward correction against a downward trend. Thus, the downward movement has good chances to continue, if it does not interfere with the fundamental background. The Dead Cross sell signal from Ichimoku also remains relevant, with Bollinger bands pointing down.

Recommendations for the GBP/USD pair:

The pound/dollar is trying to resume a new downward trend. We still believe that some unease remains on the market, and the entire fundamental background is ignored. You should precisely focus on the technique. Consequently, as long as the pair is located below the critical Kijun-sen line, short positions with targets at 1.2276 and 1.2224 (will be reviewed at the opening of trading on Monday) remain relevant.

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EUR/USD. Preview of the week. ECB should shed light on its further actions to save the economy. Reports on GDP and unemployment


A new trading week on the forex market begins, and we have to figure out what to expect from this week and what its macroeconomic background will be. In most cases, traders continue to ignore macroeconomic reports, but we have already said that, sooner or later, traders will begin to pay attention to statistics again, and secondly, all published indicators provide grounds for conclusions about the general economic situation in that country. A clear understanding of the economic downturn in a country will provide an opportunity to conclude that it is attractive to invest in the national currency of this country. Thus, we advise you to pay attention to published reports, although there is no direct reaction of traders to them. The new trading week will be full of macroeconomic events of a different plan and degree of importance. There will be practically no news in the first two trading days of the week. Most likely, Donald Trump will speak every day. Accordingly, a certain fundamental background will be present these days. In addition, everything will depend on the nature of the latest information. Although now there isn't much to surprise the market participants. In pre-crisis times, any hint of Jerome Powell or Mario Draghi about a possible reduction or increase in the rate could lead to a strong market response. Therefore, the speeches of the top officials of each country were closely monitored. Now, when the Federal Reserve freely reduced the rate from 1.75% to 0.25% in a couple of weeks, and the EU and US governments sign new multi-billion dollar and trillion-dollar programs to help their economies every week, traders are no longer as tempted as before. It's also worth adding that all the news about the coronavirus has faded into the background. Market participants seem to have come to terms with the fact that the epidemic will continue until a vaccine is found. And according to the latest information from doctors, it should be expected no earlier than the end of 2020. Accordingly, the only way to counter the COVID-2019 virus remains quarantine. However, quarantine cannot last forever, otherwise after its completion there will be nothing to restore. Therefore, many countries have decided to gradually weaken quarantine measures despite the fact that new infections and deaths are still being recorded in their territories.

There will be few economic events in the European Union on Wednesday. We can only note the report on the consumer price index in Germany. However, as we said earlier, all German reports are interesting only from the point of view of the state of the strongest economy in the EU. According to preliminary estimates, inflation is expected to slow down to 0.6% in April from 1.4% in annual terms. Thus, approximately the same value can be expected in the bloc. However, inflation is now far from the most significant indicator, therefore, with a probability of 99%, no reaction will follow. It should also be remembered that inflation is now declining in many countries, mainly due to a sharp drop in oil prices.

The EU will release a variety of reports on Thursday. Everything will start with retail sales in Germany with a forecast of -7.5% m/m in March. Followed by inflation in France, GDP in Spain, inflation in Spain, inflation, GDP and unemployment in Italy. All these reports will be interesting in terms of understanding the impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the economies of these countries. Important data on the unemployment rate in Germany for April, with a forecast increase from 5% to 5.2%, will also be released on this day. A fairly small increase, but the European Union has taken the path of providing assistance not to the population itself, but to businesses, companies, and businesses, so that they do not lay off employees. This is why we do not expect Europe to face a strong increase in unemployment. The number of new unemployment benefits in Germany in April is projected at 70,000, which is not much for a time of crisis. Data that will be released later on includes, unemployment in the EU (an increase from 7.3% to 7.7% in March), inflation (preliminary value for April with a forecast of 0.0% y/y), and GDP (preliminary value first quarter of forecast 2.8% in y/y and 3.3% q/q). The figures are certainly terrible, but traders have long been prepared for this, since many rating agencies, investment banks and financial conglomerates, as well as the IMF and many central banks, voiced their forecasts for a contraction in the economy due to the pandemic. Thus, -3% of GDP in the EU is unlikely to surprise anyone. In Italy, GDP could fall by 5% q/q in the first quarter, but even this value is unlikely to surprise anyone, since it was Italy that suffered the most from the epidemic. A little later that day, decisions of the European Central Bank on deposit and key rates will be published and a press conference with Christine Lagarde will be held. These events are also extremely interesting. No one expects the ECB to lower rates, however, recall that the ECB did not use the key rate reduction tool since the crisis began. On the one hand, rates in Europe are already at a negative level and each subsequent decrease has a much weaker effect than the previous one, and on the other hand, it is still an effective method of stimulating the economy. Moreover, we recall that the European Council has not yet approved the 2-trillion package of assistance to the economy. Europe definitely needs new stimulus packages. Thus, Christine Lagarde can lift the curtain over the ECB's actions in the future.

Not a single important report is planned in the EU on the final trading day of the week. However, in this article we considered only European publications and events, and in addition to them there will be American ones, which will be considered in the GBP/USD article. As for European events, we can say that the key events of the week are the ECB meeting and data on GDP and unemployment in the EU. These events can cause traders to react and create additional pressure on the euro. Although now the situation is no better in America. But the US currency still has an advantage over the euro, as traders and investors are much more drawn to it in dark and dangerous times.


The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair shows that a new upward correction has begun and a consolidation has been made over the Kijun-sen critical line. Thus, a further downward movement has been called into question. At the same time, there are few fundamental and macroeconomic foundations for strengthening the euro. And it is unlikely that there will be more of them next week.

Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

We believe that the fundamental background can hold a certain influence in the upcoming week, as there will be important events. Low volatility of the euro/dollar pair may be observed on Monday and Tuesday, since no events are planned for these days either in the EU or in the US. The correction may continue on these days. However, we expect volatility to increase in the second half of the week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -