GBP / USD. May is preparing to "go to Brussels"

The pound against the dollar gradually slips from the level of the annual maximum (1.3216) to the base of the 30th figure. And although the southern dynamics is cautious in nature, the tension among traders is increasing day by day, given the rhetoric of top European countries regarding the prospects for Brexit. It is noteworthy that the market is cautious about both long GBP / USD positions and short ones, especially against the background of Theresa May's upcoming speech, which is due tomorrow.

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In general, the situation is still uncertain. The leaders of the European countries express in turn a joint position, the essence of which boils down to the fact that the EU will not reconsider the already agreed deal "in favor of the British Parliament." German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated this today, exerting background pressure on the pound. However, the British currency is declining reluctantly. Firstly, the negative reaction of Brussels was predictable, and secondly, representatives of the European Union still leave loopholes for the resumption of negotiations. Although at the moment such intentions are read "between the lines."

Even the German Chancellor, rejecting the possibility of a review of the deal, added that the question of backstop could still be considered, albeit in the context of the future relationship between London and Brussels. In other words, Europe, on the one hand, does not want to change the text of the agreement, but at the same time admits the possibility of concluding additional agreements. The sluggish pound decline suggests that the majority of traders still do not believe in the implementation of the "hard" scenario (otherwise a pair of GBP / USD would be in the area of 26-26 figures) but at the same time they are afraid that, overestimated her strength, going "on the offensive" on Brussels.

Meanwhile, the British prime minister is filled with optimism. At the weekend, in an interview with one of the British publications, she announced that she plans to obtain guarantees from the European Union about the absence of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. To this end, it will soon go to Berlin, and then to Brussels, to change the already approved EU deal. She is really quite militantly tuned: "I will fight for Britain and Northern Ireland, I will be armed with a new mandate, new ideas, and determination," May told reporters.

Apparently, tomorrow's speech of the prime minister will be devoted to the upcoming "crusade", the outcome of which will depend on the outcome of the deal. Today, a spokeswoman for Theresa May, announcing this event, recalled that the prime minister strongly opposes the holding of early elections and the cancellation of Brexit (as well as his transfer). It is obvious that in the course of her speech she will repeat these theses, making a double impression on traders. On the one hand, such a position increases the risk of a chaotic scenario - if Brussels does not show flexibility, the House of Commons will not approve the agreement accordingly (and the deputies refused to renew the 50th article of the Treaty of Lisbon). But the flip side of the coin is that there is still a version of a compromise with Brussels, in one form or another.

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After all, everyone understands that the European Union, a priori, could not respond positively to the decision of the British parliament, adopting Theresa May "with open arms." Now, there is again a political game, in fact, a game of nerves, at stake which are the conditions for future relations between the Alliance and Britain. There are many unknowns in this complex equation, although the desired result of each of the parties is known in advance. In my opinion, Brussels ultimately agrees to make cosmetic changes to the agreement by concluding additional memorandums but this will be done at the last moment so that British deputies do not wake up their appetite in the context of additional requirements.

Thus, the GBP / USD pair is unlikely to keep the 30th figure. Amid difficult negotiations, the "Briton" will drop in price at least to 1.2960 (the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). If the bears break through this support level, a larger rollback will follow: in this case, the price will drop to 1.2825 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on D1). But the resistance level is the price of 1.3216, this is the annual maximum, which coincides with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe.

In general, talking about any priority of the south or north on a pair of GBP / USD is impossible. During the negotiation process, the mood of the traders will change rapidly. In just a few hours, the situation with the pair can change radically. Therefore, traders of the pair should carefully and carefully monitor the news flow on Brexit. All other fundamental factors traditionally fade into the background.

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US unemployment rose to 4% in January, which turned out worse than forecast

According to the US Department of Labor, unemployment in the country increased from 3.9% in December to 4% in January. At the same time, the number of new jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the economy increased by 304 thousand, which exceeded analysts' forecasts by almost 2 times.

Experts expected the first indicator to remain at the level of 3.9% and the growth of the second by 165 thousand people.

The agency also reported that the level of hourly wages in the United States in January rose by 3.2% to $27.56 in annual terms but in monthly terms, the figure fell by 0.1% compared with December data.

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The year of 2019 may pass under the sign of gold

According to a number of experts, investment in gold will remain relevant in 2019 due to increased volatility and uncertainty in global financial markets.

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"We believe that the current year should be favorable for gold, as investors are still interested in defensive assets," said Standard Chartered Bank specialists.

"We expect that during the year the precious metal rate will show steady growth. Already this year, quotes may reach $ 1,400 for 1 ounce. At the same time, a short-term correction on the background of an uptrend cannot be ruled out, "they added.

A similar point of view is held by specialists of Saxo Bank.

"At the moment there are enough reasons to buy gold to save your own savings," said representatives of the financial institute.

According to them, the supporting factors for the cost of the precious metal will be a slowdown or complete cessation of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS). It also includes the escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, as well as increased political tension around Venezuela.

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Oil becomes cheaper, American companies reduce production

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According to the report of the oil service company Baker Hughes, for the period from January 28 to February 1, US energy companies reduced the number of oil drilling rigs by 15 units, to 847 wells, the minimum in the last eight months.

Oil companies began to cut costs due to forecasts of a decrease in oil prices in comparison with 2018.

Today, the cost of futures for American oil WTI as of 17:00 Moscow time decreased by 1.21% to $ 54.59 a barrel.

The number of active rigs is an early indicator of the volume of future oil production. Currently, the indicator (847) is significantly higher than last year's (765), as the company in 2018 significantly increased production against the backdrop of an increase in the price of oil on the world market.

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The Fed paused to allow the US economy to grow.

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The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, believes that the pause of the American regulator in the process of raising interest rates will allow the country's economy to continue to grow.

The official stressed that the US economy has the potential for growth, and a premature tightening of monetary policy can have a negative impact on it against the background of the crisis in Europe and the slowdown in China's economic growth.

Following the meeting last week, the US Federal Reserve System abandoned its plan for raising rates, noting that it will patiently approach changes in monetary policy in the future.

The soft rhetoric of the regulator, on the one hand, reassured investors, but, on the other, was perceived as a sign of a possible weakening of the economy.

N. Kashkari highlighted the main risks to the economy at the moment: a slowdown in the economic growth of the PRC and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. He also added that the positive effect of tax reform is fading away because of growing concerns about the trade confrontation between the US and China, which has led to a decrease in investment activity.

In this case, the official appreciates the current state of the US economy. In his opinion, there are no signs of overheating at the moment, but the Fed does not need to take risks in the process of raising short-term interest rates.

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Pound takes profits

The British pound realized that it went too high on incomprehensible optimism and therefore, the risks of profit taking on weak statistics in Britain are growing by leaps and bounds. The proof is the drop in the GBP/USD pair in response to disappointing data on business activity in the manufacturing sector. The figure fell to a three-month low, and companies were increasing their stocks at the fastest pace since the 1990s. They are obviously afraid of something. Is it a messy Brexit?

Strengthening of the sterling in response to Theresa May's plan, which was rejected by the Parliament, twice in various variations, looks like an anomaly. It would seem that we need to prepare for the withdrawal of Foggy Albion from the EU without a deal, especially since the lawmakers voted against the amendment to extend Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. In fact, investors believe that parliament will not allow Brexit to indiscriminate and extending the transition period is a matter of time. As a result, the two-month volatility of the pound fell to its lowest level in two years but after a couple of months waiting for us on March 29, the date of the official divorce.

However, until mid-February when the legislature holds another vote, the political landscape is unlikely to change radically, which allows investors to shift their attention to the events of the economic calendar. Many of them are not averse to taking profits after 2.5% of the GBP/USD rally since the beginning of the year, and weak statistics will enable them to do so. In this regard, the release of data on business activity in the services sector and the meeting of the Bank of England put forward the sterling for the role of the most interesting currency of the week.

The Central Bank will not envy. He bases his predictions on an orderly Brexit, and if something goes wrong, he will have to make corrections in an emergency. Bloomberg experts do not expect a repo rate increase at the February MPC meeting, but the presence of a split on this issue may support the bulls in GBP/USD. The derivatives market is gradually shifting the timing of the expected tightening of monetary policy to a later period than originally anticipated. Nevertheless, in conditions when competing for central banks decided to take a pause, rumors of a continuation of the BoE normalization cycle stretch a pound a helping hand.

Dynamics of the probability of increasing the repo rate

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Everything is relative. The divergence serving faithfully and in 2018, the US dollars now plays on the side of its opponents. In this regard, it is doubtful that the correction of the GBP/USD pair to the upward short-term trend was delayed for a long time. Profit taking is a technical factor, a fundamental improvement in the political background and expectations of a repo rate increase act as important trumps of the bulls in the analyzed pair.

Technically, despite the pullback, pound fans leave no hope of reaching the target of 113% using the Shark pattern. In this scenario, the likelihood of the implementation of targets according to the "Wolfe Waves" model will increase. In this regard, a correction with a subsequent rebound from the supports for $ 1.302 and $ 1.2895 makes sense to use for purchases.

GBP / USD daily graph

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on February 4. The pair remains in the region of a large support level

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The situation in the GBP / USD pair has not changed compared with the morning forecast. Buyers of the British pound may resume an uptrend but this will require a breakdown of the middle of the channel in the area of 1.3104 with a fixation above the resistance of 1.3159. Only after this will the prospect of updating the highs in the region of 1.3214 and 1.3260 open, where I recommend taking profits. However, a larger upward movement will depend on negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU representatives. In the case of a downward correction of the purchase for the pound, I recommend to do it only on the condition of a false breakdown around 1.3043 or for a rebound from 1.2971.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears did not wait for testing the resistance of 1.3104 in the morning and started selling the pound as they approached this range. However, the sellers target will be a breakthrough of support at 1.3043, which may lead to a further fall in GBP / USD with a rise to the lows of 1.2971 and 1.2894, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a pound rising above 1.3104, it's best to take a closer look at short positions after updating the maximum in the area of 1.3159 or at a rebound from the level of 1.3214. Any news of the failure of negotiations between May and EU representatives could lead to a rapid fall in the pound.

More in the video forecast for February 4

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates a possible drop in the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on the market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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BITCOIN Analysis for February 4, 2019

Bitcoin has been correcting itself between $3,400-3,500 for a few days in a row. The price is expected to sink much lower in the coming days. The price recently broke below the trend line support which has been also retested today as resistance while also being held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line, acting as resistance. Meanwhile, the price is expected to retest the trend line again where the Kumo cloud resistance is holding. As the price remains below $3,500, it is expected to fall deeper towards $3,000 in the coming days. On the contrary, a daily close above $3,500 will cancel the bearish bias and may lead to further upward movement.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,250

RESISTANCE: 3,500, 4,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR and GBP: Eurozone producer prices were worse than expected. The pound is ready to break past week lows

Another weak fundamental statistics on the eurozone led to a decline in the European currency in the first half of the day, but the bears have not yet managed to form a larger downward movement in the EUR / USD pair. Many will depend on whether sellers manage to cope with the support level of 1.1435 or not, but more on that below.

Inflation in Italy remains near zero. According to the statistics agency, the preliminary CPI of Italy in January rose by only 0.1% compared with December 2018. On an annualized basis, inflation rose by 0.9%. Economists had expected a preliminary CPI of Italy for January at 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively.

Eurozone producer prices put particular pressure on the euro in the first half of the day, as the economists had fallen more than forecast, which is a bad sign for the European Central Bank.

According to the report, PPI eurozone producer price index in December 2018 fell by 0.8% and grew by 3.0% year on year. Eurozone producer price index for December was projected at -0.7% and + 3.1%, respectively.

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The main fall in prices is associated with a decrease in energy carriers, which in the 4th quarter of 2018 showed a rapid decline. Thus, the basic index of producer prices in the eurozone, which does not take into account the volatile categories, including energy prices, declined only by 0.1% in December and showed an increase of 1.3% on an annualized basis.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, it remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast. Only a breakthrough of the support level of 1.1430 can lead to a new wave of sales and reduce risky assets in the region of the lower boundary of the downward channel, as well as to the support level of 1.1405 and 1.1378. In the case of an upward correction, the upper limit in the area of 1.1475 will be a good level for the return of new major sellers of the European currency to the market.

The British pound returned to weekly support levels after it became known that the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the UK construction sector fell to a new 10-month low in January.

According to IHS Markit, PMI for the construction sector in January fell to a critical level of 50.6 points against 52.8 points in December of the past year. The fall is mainly due to a slowdown in employment growth and very low growth in new orders.

Also, negative pressure on the pound has market forecasts associated with the revision of GDP growth in 2019. It is expected that at its next meeting, the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged, but will revise the forecast of growth in the UK economy for the worse. The continuing uncertainty around Brexit also affects the British pound rate, which has been in a narrow side channel for quite a while.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on February 4. Eurozone statistics is pessimistic again, Producer prices came out

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Weak data on producer prices in the eurozone has once again led to continued pressure on the euro in the morning. Today, buyers once again need to keep the pair above the support level of 1.1436, which will be the first signal to buy in order to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1460. Only after such will it be possible to count on continued growth with the building of a new ascending channel and with updating the highs in the region of 1.1487 and 1.1514, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of EUR/USD decline below the support of 1.1436, it is best to take a closer look at long positions at a test of 1.1408 or rebound from 1.1378.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers are keeping the pair below the level of 1.1460, which will keep the pressure on the euro. An unsuccessful consolidation above 1.1460 will be the first signal to sell the euro with the main goal of a breakthrough and consolidation below support for 1.1436, which will lead to a large sale of EUR/USD to the area of the minimum at 1.1408 and 1.1378, where I recommend taking profits. If the euro rises in the second half of the day above resistance 1.1460, it is possible to return to sales immediately to rebound from the maximum of 1.1487.

More in the video forecast for February 4

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the continued pressure on the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the case of EUR / USD growth, the upside potential may be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1.1470 area.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

OPEC reduces oil production to the maximum

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According to experts, last month the largest decline in oil production in the past two years was recorded by OPEC. According to the calculations of experts, the cartel executed a new deal by almost 80%.

On the part of Saudi Arabia, the leading exporter of black gold in the world, much stronger reductions in oil production were made than previously planned. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait can also boast a significant decrease in production.

According to an analytical survey, the production level of 14 OPEC countries decreased by 930 thousand barrels per day, to 31.02 million. Recall that the countries of the cartel and independent oil producers resumed their agreement to reduce production in December after a 40% drop in oil prices. In the end, OPEC + agreed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day from the market in order to achieve a balance of supply and demand.

A significant part of the cuts in the countries of the cartel is 800 thousand barrels per day, while the lion's share of them is unplanned. In this new deal should take part 11 members of OPEC, except Iran, Libya, and Venezuela. According to the survey, these 11 countries made 79% of the promised reductions in January 2019. However, they need to reduce production by another 170 thousand barrels per day in order to fully implement the agreement.

The authorities of Saudi Arabia have reduced the level of oil production by 450 thousand barrels per day, to 10.2 million, which is almost a third more than the terms of the transaction. Experts believe this reduction is impressive compared with a record production level of 11.1 million barrels per day, recorded in November 2018. As for Iran, in January of this year, the volume of black gold in the country reached 4.69 million barrels per day, which exceeded the planned amount of oil production. Against the background of anti-American sanctions, production in Iran fell by 150 thousand barrels per day, to 2.74 million.

In Libya, suffering from unrest after the fall of the regime of the former leader Muammar Gaddafi, in January of this year, 900 thousand barrels were produced, which is 100 thousand barrels less than the July figure. Export of black gold and other goods is difficult due to the closure of a number of oil terminals. Last month, a slight increase in production was recorded in Venezuela by 50 thousand barrels per day, to 1.27 million barrels. Earlier, the United States imposed large-scale sanctions against the state oil company of the country. Experts believe that this could be an actual oil embargo.

A meeting of OPEC + representatives in Baku is scheduled for March this year. On the agenda will be the question of the possible extension of the agreement on oil production in the autumn of 2019.

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Why should you not trust the dollar or too high bar?

The growth of the dollar contributes to several factors. The first is the report on employment in the United States and the high activity of the manufacturing sector. The growth of the dollar contributes to several factors. The first is a report on employment in the United States and the high activity of the manufacturing sector. Judging from the published data, the temporary suspension of the government's work did not have a particular impact on the labor market and the economy as a whole. However, there are several points that can spoil the overall picture. The wage growth rates have declined despite the strong labor market. If we add here the Fed's more cautious attitude about the monetary policy outlook, the dollar outlook does not look very convincing.

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The Fed does not manifest caution for nothing. Issues on Brexit, the slowdown in the economy, the problem of financing the work of the US government and the trade conflict between the US and China are serious arguments in favor of not tightening monetary policy. But, on the other hand, all these problems can be solved in the next few months. Let's say Congress will approve the constant increase in costs, the UK will make a deal with the EU under Brexit and Trump will refuse new tariffs for Chinese imports, then two rate increases this year can be justified. At the same time, negative developments will lead to market chaos. Hence, the dollar in all these turmoil has every chance to move to a decline.

All economic releases of the coming week, ranging from producer price inflation in the Eurozone and ending with retail sales and GDP, may unpleasantly surprise the markets. The weakness of the US dollar is the only reason why the EUR/USD pair rose last week and the lack of economic data for the US this week makes the mark of 1.15 a strong resistance level. Also, the recovery of the US dollar has limited the growth of AUD and NZD, despite the strong indicator of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Australia.

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EUR / USD: Good data on the US economy will lead to a further decline in EUR / USD

Euro sellers almost completely won back the morning growth of the pair on Friday, after the release of a good report on the US labor market, which indicated its further growth.

In the first half of the day, a report on inflation in the eurozone came out, which did not greatly surprise investors, which limited the upward potential in euros.

According to the data, annual inflation in the eurozone in January 2019 declined again, which is a bad signal for the European Central Bank, as it indicates a slowdown in the region's economy.

As indicated in the statistics agency of the EU, the preliminary CPI in January rose by 1.4% over the same period last year, after rising 1.6% in December. The main fall in inflation was directly related to lower energy prices, as core inflation, which did not take into account volatile categories, rose to 1.1% in January versus 1.0% in January 2018.

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The data, which came out in the second half of the day, significantly helped the US dollar, as the number of non-farm jobs continued to grow in January, and wages increased.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of non-agricultural jobs in January increased immediately by 304,000, which was much higher than economists' forecasts. The unemployment rate rose to 4.0%, which is directly related to the partial suspension of US government work. Economists had expected the number of new jobs to be 170,000, while unemployment would be at a level of 3.9%.

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As noted above, hourly earnings in the private sector increased immediately by 3.2% compared with the same period of the previous year.

Production activity in the US increased in January. It happened against the background of increased production and new orders. According to IHS Markit, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector in January 2019 rose to 54.9 points, while in December the index was 53.8 points. Let me remind you that the index value above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Economists had expected the index to be 54.8 in January.

The upward potential of the US dollar was limited by a weak report on the sentiment of American households, which sharply deteriorated in January due to the partial suspension of government work. According to the University of Michigan, the consumer sentiment index in January 2019 fell to 91.2 points against 98.3 points at the end of last year.

At the end of the day, a representative of the Federal Reserve, Robert Kaplan, said that the US economy should grow faster so that the authorities could cope with the high debt problem, but there are still a number of reasons that are likely to lead to slower growth in the 2019 year Kaplan fully supports the idea of a pause in the rate hike cycle, which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced at the last meeting.

According to the representative of the Fed, the suspension of interest rate increases will last until June this year, as the slowdown in global economic growth and tighter financial conditions increase the risks to the prospects for the US economy.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, so far everything indicates a further decline in the euro in the short term. A new downward price channel has already been built after Friday's unsuccessful growth of the euro and an attempt to consolidate above the range of 1.1490. The breakthrough of support of 1.1430 may lead to a new wave of sales and reduce risky assets in the region of the lower boundary of the downward channel, as well as to the support level of 1.1405 and 1.1378. In the case of an upward correction, the upper limit in the area of 1.1475 will be a good level for the return of new major sellers of the European currency to the market.

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Simplified wave analysis of USD / JPY for February 4

Large-scale graphics:

In the structure of the rising wave dominating from last year, the first 2 parts (A + B) are fully formed.

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Medium scale graphics:

Despite the fact that the current wave level of the bull wave from January 3 corresponds to H1, the potential of this movement is much greater. A preliminary calculation allows you to wait for the growth rate to 5 price figures.

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Small-scale graphics:

The bullish wave of January 31 is at the end of a larger upward model. The nature of the upcoming climb is expected to be close to impulse.

Forecast and recommendations:

Sales in the coming months will be unpromising. At the ends of any counter kickbacks, it is recommended to track buy signals. The large expected recovery potential allows traders to take part in trade for longer time trades.

Resistance zones:

- 111.00 / 111.50

Support areas:

- 109.50 / 109.00

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 4

Large-scale graphics:

The downward wave dominating on the euro chart has been undergoing correction in recent months. A preliminary calculation of the target zone gives the probability of a general price reduction to 7 price patterns.

Medium scale graphics:

The rising wave of November 12 has a complex structure, forming as an ascending flat channel.

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Small-scale graphics:

Started on January 24, the rising wave completes the bullish construction of a larger TF. A preliminary calculation shows the maximum size of elongation to the upper zone of resistance.

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Forecast and recommendations:

The period of strengthening the price of the euro is temporary, but the trend will be relevant in the coming weeks. Supporters of intersessional trade can take advantage of this by opening purchases at the end of each pullback.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1740 / 1.1790

- 1.1420 / 1.1370

Support areas:

- 1.1420 / 1.1370

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD is still trapped within the previous consolidation zone, waiting for a breakout. for February 4, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times until January 28 when the daily candlestick achieved a bullish closure above 1.1420.

Further bullish advancement should be expected towards the price level of 1.1550 where the upper limit of both depicted channels (RED & BLUE) is located.

Around 1.1550-1.1570, there's a confluence of supply levels (upper limit of channels & previous historical bottoms) where bearish rejection as well as a valid SELL entry would be expected.

On the other hand, any bearish closure below 1.1420 terminates the current bullish movement (initiated on January 25) allowing another bearish visit towards 1.1350 and 1.1300.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards the price level of 1.1550-1.1570 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1420 and 1.1300. S/L to be located above 1.1600.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. February 4th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May travels to Brussels for new talks

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -85.3707

The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, February 4, with great difficulty entrenched below the moving average line. Thus, the trend in the instrument has changed to downward, but the volatility of the last days shows that the bears have little strength yet. On the other hand, the bulls, most likely, have already exhausted their potential. As we have already written more than once, there were no good reasons for such a serious strengthening of the British pound. Thus, according to the general logic, a decrease in the currency pair is very likely. In the meantime, Theresa May is going to Brussels to hold new talks with EU leaders. As before, the North Irish border and backstop remain the stumbling block. Theresa May will intend to change the very concept of "backstop" or change it to some kind of "alternative agreement". What will come of all this is still unknown, but the media will continue to receive data on this issue and on the whole Brexit topic. So far, leaders unanimously declare that there will be no new negotiations and the final version of Brexit is the best that the EU can offer to London. However, with this version of Brexit itself will not. Since the UK Parliament has blocked this option. In general, the epic continues. In the UK today there will be an index of business activity in the construction sector, and it may have a certain impact on the movement of the pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has overcome the moving. Therefore, short positions with targets of 1.3000 and 1.2939 have become relevant now. It is recommended to wait for overcoming the level of 1.3062 and turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down to open the short positions.

Orders for the purchase can be considered in the event of a reverse price fixing above the moving average with the target of 1.3184. But, as we have said, there are no fundamental grounds for the continued growth of the pound.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. February 4th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". American statistics can help the dollar today.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: -17.1104

The first trading day of the new week for the EUR / USD currency pair begins with a new round of corrective movement towards the moving average line. Impressive macroeconomic statistics in the United States on Friday provided very indirect support for the US currency. At least, it was not enough to overcome the MA and change the trend to the downward. The first day of the week, from our point of view, may remain behind the US currency. The fact is that the Europeans did not have time on Friday to work out the positive data from the United States, so they can do it today, February 4. In general, the pair continues to trade in a wide channel, limited by the levels of 1.1500 and 1.1290 (approximately). There are no weighty reasons for the pair to leave below this channel (for the time being), but there are no fundamental reasons for a serious strengthening of the euro currency. Therefore, in the near future, we do not expect the pair to leave this channel. To date, no important macroeconomic publication has been planned either in the States or in the European Union. The report on US factory orders is not important. Thus, the European trading session may remain for the dollar, and the US, to pass in neutral trading. The further trend of the tool will depend on whether or not the moving average is overcome.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1414

S2 - 1.1353

S3 - 1.1292

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1.1536

R3 - 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to be adjusted. New long positions are recommended to open in case of a price rebound from the moving average line with the first target of 1.1475. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator up will confirm the completion of the correction.

It is recommended to open orders for sale in case of overcoming by traders the moving and, preferably, the level of 1.1414 with the target of 1.1353. In this case, bears will take the lead on the market.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for February 4. The chances of the pair's growth remain, but fall

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD made a return to the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.1446. The end of the pair quotes from this level will work in favor of the European currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1517. The ripening divergences on February 4th are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the course of the pair below the Fibo level of 38.2% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair retains high chances of continued growth of quotations in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Resetting the pair's quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing the pair above the correction level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of continued growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out with the aim of 1.1517 if the pair rebounds from the correction level of 38.2%, and with a Stop Loss order under 1.1446.

Sales of the currency pair EUR / USD can be made with the target of 1.1358 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair closes below the level of 1.1446.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for February 4. The British pound is ready for growth but hardly strong

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and closing below the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094. However, on February 4th, a bullish divergence appeared on the CCI indicator. This divergence allows us to expect a reversal in favor of the currency of England and some growth of the pair. Fixing quotations above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of the pair to grow in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.3300. Passing the last low divergence will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of 61.8% - 1.2969.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, quotes rebounded from the Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.3045 and a reversal in favor of the pound sterling. The bullish divergence of the MACD indicator was also formed. As a result, the quotes growth process can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% - 1.3187. Fixing quotes on the current chart below the Fibo level of 161.8% will work in favor of the US dollar and resuming the fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2916.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair GBP / USD can be carried out now with a target of 1.3187 and a Stop Loss order under the level of 161.8%, as the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 1.3045 (hourly chart) with the formation of bullish divergence.

New sales of the currency pair GBP / USD will be possible with a target of 1.2916 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 161.8% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3045 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The period of high volatility in the markets will continue

Strong Friday data on the number of new jobs in the US economy supported the dollar, but its growth was not as significant as it could have been earlier when the Fed persistently followed the way of tightening monetary policy.

According to the data presented, in January, the American economy received 304,000 new jobs against the revised downward December value of 222,000 and their growth forecast of 165,000. Growth in the private non-agricultural sector, which amounted to 296,000, also turned out to be significant. Employment rate from 3.9% to 4.0%, while in the manufacturing industry the number of jobs fell in growth to 13,000 against the already low December value of 22,000 and the forecast of 17,000.

Evaluating the published data, we believe that their positive is perhaps the residual phenomenon after the really strong growth of the economy and employment last year. American companies are still hiring a fairly large number of workers, but against the background of a marked slowdown in GDP growth, as well as a slowdown in the increase in production indicators, we should not consider, in our opinion, the positive dynamics of new job growth as the main indicator.

As a result of its last meeting, the Fed has already made it clear that it fears a slowdown in economic growth in the country and in the whole world, therefore the reaction in the foreign exchange market, as well as in the US stock market, has been rather restrained. And here, as we see it, the absence of an agreement on trade between Washington and Beijing, as promised earlier at the end of the January 30-31 meeting, which investors had been looking forward to since the end of last year, played an important role. D. Trump's statement that the final decision on trade will be made at a personal meeting between him and Xi Jinping, which will be held this month.

Observing how the events unfold, we believe that the importance of the negotiation process between China and the United States is more significant than labor market statistics or some other data, so we expect the period of high volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets to continue.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair AUD / USD is below the level of 0.7235. The pair is negatively affected by the lack of certainty about the trade negotiations between the United States and China. We expect the continuation of the smooth decline of the pair to 0.7200 if it does not grow above the level of 0.7235.

The currency pair GBP / USD is trading below the level of 1.3085. Sterling is still ruled by Brexit, but the publication of weak production figures today may cause the price to continue to decline to 1.3000.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on February 4

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pai Euro / Dollar r, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 1.1485 and the level of 1.1415 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, an upward movement is possible after a breakdown of 1.3197 - 1.3245 and level of 1.3058 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms a downward structure of January 30 and the level of 0.9965 is the key support for this structure. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price forms a pronounced ascending structure of January 31 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 109.98. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the upward cycle development from January 24 is expected to continue after the breakdown of 125.90. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price has a small local structure to continue the upward trend from February 1.

Forecast for February 4:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1594, 1.1548, 1.1514, 1.1485, 1.1446, 1.1415 and 1.1387. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure from January 24. At the moment, the price is in correction. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1485. In this case, the target is 1.1514. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1514 - 1.1548 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1594, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1446 - 1.1415 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the goal is 1.1387.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 24, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1485 Take profit: 1.1512

Buy 1.1516 Take profit: 1.1546

Sell: 1.1444 Take profit: 1.1415

Sell: 1.1413 Take profit: 1.1390

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3431, 1.3350, 1.3245, 1.3197, 1.3118, 1.3058 and 1.2981. Here, we continue to monitor the rising structure of January 15. At the moment, the price is in correction. An upward movement is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3197 - 1.3245. In this case, the target is 1.3350, and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3431, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.3118 - 1.3058 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2981 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of January 15, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3245 Take profit: 1.3350

Buy: 1.3353 Take profit: 1.3430

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.3055 Take profit: 1.2984

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.9993, 0.9965, 0.9948, 0.9917, 0.9904, 0.9894, 0.9867, 0.9847 and 0.9822. Here, we are following the formation of the downward structure of January 30th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9917. In this case, the target is 0.9904 and consolidation is near this level. The price passage of the range of 0.9904 - 0.9894 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9867 and in the range of 0.9867 - 0.9847 is the short-term downward movement. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.9822, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.9948 - 0.9965 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form an ascending structure. Here, the target is 0.9993.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of January 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 0.9968 Take profit: 0.9990

Sell: 0.9917 Take profit: 0.9904

Sell: 0.9892 Take profit: 0.9870

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 110.66, 110.40. 109.98, 109.64, 109.29, 109.12, 108.89 and 108.48. Here, the price forms a pronounced ascending structure of January 31. An upward movement is expected after breakdown of 109.64. In this case, the goal is 109.98 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 109.98 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 110.40. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 110.66, after reaching this level, we expect a rollback down.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 109.29 - 109.12 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.89 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 108.48.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.65 Take profit: 109.96

Buy: 110.00 Take profit: 110.40

Sell: 109.29 Take profit: 109.12

Sell: 109.10 Take profit: 108.90

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3190, 1.3139, 1.3114, 1.3074, 1.3026 and 1.2973. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of January 24. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3074. In this case, the goal is 1.3026 and price consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2973, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.3114 - 1.3139 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3190 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3114 Take profit: 1.3137

Buy: 1.3141 Take profit: 1.3190

Sell: 1.3072 Take profit: 1.3030

Sell: 1.3025 Take profit: 1.2975

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7359, 0.7336, 0.7296, 0.7267, 0.7225, 0.7208 and 0.7184. Here, we continue to monitor the rising structure of January 25. At the moment, the price is in the zone of correction. An upward movement is expected after breakdown of 0.7267. In this case, the target is 0.7296 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7296 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7336. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7359, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7225 - 0.7208 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7184 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 25, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7268 Take profit: 0.7294

Buy: 0.7298 Take profit: 0.7336

Sell: 0.7225 Take profit: 0.7208

Sell: 0.7206 Take profit: 0.7184

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.89, 126.46, 125.89, 125.15, 124.91, 124.53 and 123.74. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure from January 24. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 125.90. In this case, the goal is 126.46 and near this level is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 126.89, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 125.15 - 124.91 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 124.53 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have a downward trend. In this case, the potential goal is 123.74.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.90 Take profit: 126.44

Buy: 126.47 Take profit: 126.89

Sell: 125.15 Take profit: 124.91

Sell: 124.88 Take profit: 124.55

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 146.68, 145.74, 144.86, 144.00, 142.69, 142.12 and 141.37. Here we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 15. At the moment, the price has issued a small local structure for the top of February 1. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.00. In this case, the first target is 144.86 and the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 145.74. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 146.68, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.69 - 142.12 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 141.37 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.00 Take profit: 144.80

Buy: 144.88 Take profit: 145.74

Sell: 142.69 Take profit: 142.14

Sell: 142.10 Take profit: 141.40

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar in real plus after the publication of optimistic data on employment in the US

The dollar strengthened against the yen after the publication of strong data on employment and production in the United States. However, one should not lose sight of the cautious attitude of the Fed regarding future monetary policy and a noticeable decline in activity in Asian markets during the Lunar New Year celebrations. Both factors will restrain further growth of the American currency.

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In addition, the optimism of Wall Street, caused by a sharp increase in jobs in the United States, was suppressed by weaker than expected forecasts from Amazon.com. In general, the key points for the markets this week will be the remaining reports on the profits of American corporations and how they will correspond to the latest optimistic data. Also, we should not forget about political events, especially the confrontation between the US and China, which are still potential risk factors.

After reviving the market against the backdrop of growing risk appetite, there will be important data and statements by the speakers saying that it is necessary to find a delicate balance between data improvement and the neutral tone of central banks. The Federal Reserve promises to be cautious about further raising interest rates, which signals a possible completion of a tightening policy cycle. Meanwhile, the dollar holds the title of leader and there is no compelling reason to worry about a possible recession.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar has taken heart

A positive macroeconomic data was published on Friday and returned to the market the idea that the Fed could raise rates twice this year.

The report on the labor market came out unexpectedly strong with the data of 340 thousand number new jobs in January, which turned out to be much better than the average market forecast of 164 thousand. The growth of average wages remained high, which gives chances to see the growth of inflation.

The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan turned out to be slightly higher than the preliminary one. Similarly, the ISM index in the manufacturing sector rose to 56.6p in January against the forecast of 54.2 p., indicating the economy is still expanding despite the slowdown in growth is still expanding.

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Also on Friday, two Fed members commented on the current economic situation and both were brightly dovish. Head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, rated the report on the labor market as "very strong" but at the same time urged to pay attention to other data. His colleague from Dallas, Robert Kaplan, has once again insisted on a pause in the rate increase cycle, explaining that nonfarm is not an indicator due to shut down.

In general, market expectations are changing to more positive. The gold growth was replaced by a fall and oil rose again above $ 63 per barrel, which indicates a decrease in risks.

Eurozone

The EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range, which is no reason to leave. Borders range from 1.1403 to 1.1515 and the euro will wait for new data.

Great Britain

The development of the situation on Brexit remains the main driver for the pound in the coming weeks. Plan B, proposed by May, does not find support anywhere except in her own party. The question of the border with Ireland remains open; it requires finding a compromise among the main political movements.

In the coming days, Britain will be visited by Tusk and Juncker, and the search for a compromise will continue. If he is not found, then the prospects for voting in parliament on February 13 will remain bad, which would lead to the removal of May in the process and the question passed to parliament. In this case, the pound is likely to be able to resume growth.

As for macroeconomic data, they continue to remain moderately negative. The PMI in the industrial sector fell to a 3-month low and amounted to 52.8 p. Moreover, the slowdown in 2018 is not in doubt.

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In the construction sector, the PMI from 52.8p to 50.6p. The result is noticeably worse than forecast, despite the fact that the market does not expect any active actions from the Bank of England at least until the end of the year.

On Monday, the GBP/USD looks neutral but until the situation with the Brexit is cleared, you should not wait for movements. Probably, the recent low of 1.3040 is updated and an attempt to go below 1.30, the support can be found at 1.2960 / 70 in case of success.

Oil

Oil grows significantly after Friday's data provoked sales of defensive assets, but then additional reasons for growth emerged. According to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil installations has decreased by 15 in the last week as it dropped to a total of 847 units, which is a minimum of 8 months. In turn, OPEC set a two-year record, reducing production in January by 80% of the agreements reached under the OPEC + transaction.

In the absence of system data on futures due to the shutdown, the holistic picture is not yet visible but one thing is clear - there is no threat of the collapse of the oil market. The breakdown of resistance at 63.63 will open the way to the 65/70 zone, which coincides with the consolidated market estimate for Brent in the second quarter.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of the GBP / USD pair from February 4 to 9, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, the price will move up with the first goal of 1.30216, the upper fractal.

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow for the weekly white candle (Monday is up) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday is up).

This week ,the price will move up with the first goal of 1.30216, the upper fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of the pair EUR / USD from February 4 to 9, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

When moving up the first upper target of 1.1569 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the candle of the EUR / USD currency pair on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely. It will have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow at the weekly white candle (Monday - up) and the absence of the second upper shadow (Friday - up).

When moving up, the first upper target of 1.1569 is the upper fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Monthly review of the pair GBP / USD for February 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

In February, it is possible that the bulls will again try to move up with the first target of 1.3404 - 50.0%, a sliding level (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (monthly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

The conclusion of the complex analysis - possible top.

The total result of calculating the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a monthly schedule: the price is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month is white) for the monthly white candle and the absence of the second upper shadow (the last week is white) The first upper target of 1.3404 is the 50.0% rollback level (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Monthly review of EUR / USD for February 2019

There is a downward channel in the market (red bold lines). The price in January 2019, moving up, tested the resistance line of 1.1569 (red bold line) and went down. In February, an uptrend is possible, but much will depend on whether the price breaks the resistance line or not.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

February will begin with an upward movement, with the first goal of 1.1488, the resistance line (red bold line). The estimated first upper target of 1.1726 is the rolling level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 2 (monthly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

Conclusion of the complex analysis - most likely the top job.

The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on a monthly schedule: the price is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month is the upper one) for the monthly white candle and the absence of the second upper shadow (the last week is white).

February will begin with an upward movement (probability 70%), with the first target of 1.1724, a rolling back level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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The GBP/USD analysis for February 4, 2019

On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to its end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has taken place until January 28, while the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish breakout above 1.3155. Hence, an intraday supply level has been recently established around 1.3155.

The current bearish decline below 1.3150 will probably bring the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction that extends down to 1.3000 where bullish recovery should be anticipated.

On the other hand, for the bullish scenario to regain its validity, bullish persistence above the price level of 1.3150 (Recent Supply Level) should be re-established on a daily basis. This would enhance another bullish visit towards 1.3240.

Trade Recommendations:

Risky traders have been suggested a counter-trend short trade around 1.3150. It's already running in profits. Final T/P level should be located around 1.3000. S/L should be located at the entry level to offset the associated risk.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.3000 (backside of the broken downtrend in RED) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P levels should be located around 1.3055, 1.3155, and 1.3200. Any bearish closure on H4 below 1.2950 invalidates this scenario.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on February 4, 2019

AUD / USD pair

On Thursday last week, the "Australian" expanded the range of the price channel and is currently dropping for the second day from Friday, which is under pressure from the general strengthening of the US dollar. The Marlin indicator on the daily and four-hour charts vigorously turned down. In order to reduce to the nearest significant support of 0.7043, which was the nested line of the price channel and coincided with the minimum of October 5 of last year, the price needs to fix below the MACD daily scale line at 0.7185. But first, it should be under the same line of 0.7208 on H4.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 04, 2019

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Bitcoin has been trading sideways at around $3,389. The overall short-mid-long term trend is bearish and you should watch for selling opportunities. Using the multi – time frame analysis I found the key resistance to be at $3.460.

Daily time frame: On the daily time-frame we found that the swing low at $3.460 in the background, now became key resistance and the price doesn't have power to break it.

H4 time - frame: I found a successful test of the high at $3.455 (red rectangle), which confirmed resistance.

H1 time – frame: Strong pin-bar in the background just after the test of the resistance (red rectangle), which is a sign that aggressive sellers are present.

R1: $3.462

R2: $3.509

R3: $3.546

Pivot: $3.424

S1: $3.377

S2: $3.339

S3: $3.293

Trading recommendation: We are short BTC/USD from $3,392 and with the target at $3,110. Protective stop is moved at $3.470.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 04, 2019

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Overview: The EUR/USD pair above around the weekly pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target of 1.1335. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1294. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1453.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 04, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 1.0031, while minor resistance is seen at 0.9987. Support is found at the levels of 0.9884 and 0.9819. Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 0.9939. Equally important, the USD/CHF pair is still moving around the key level at 0.9939, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.9939. The pair rose from the level of 0.9939(this level of 0.9939 coincides with the double bottom) to the top around 0.9987. In consequence, the USD/CHF pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 0.9884. The level of 0.9884 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.9884 towards the target level of 0.9987. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9987, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9987 in order to reach the second target at 1.0031. On other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9819, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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