The Fed is unlikely to deviate from its monetary policy

Following the criticism of the actions of the Federal Reserve System and Donald Trump, the Institute for Economic Policy, which published its next report, did not stand aside either. Perhaps this is a coincidence, but it emphasizes exactly the points that the president of the United States drew attention to.

The study said that the United States should not rush to raise interest rates, as the potential price of overheating of the economy is offset by the potential benefits of faster and more adequate wage growth.

Despite this, I do not think that the Fed will deviate from its policy. Today, the minutes will be published from the last meeting of the Fed, in which, most likely, further emphasis will be placed on the growth of inflation and on the transition to a neutral interest rate.

Speech by the representative of the Federal Reserve Robert Kaplan on Tuesday evening only led to a weakening of the US dollar's position in the market against most of the world's currencies. As Kaplan noted, the Fed continues to give preference to a gradual increase in interest rates, and at least three or four more increases are planned ahead. Kaplan wants the Fed to return the rates to a neutral level, which, in his opinion, is about 2.50% -2.75%.

Despite the desire to generally lead to the normalization of monetary policy, the representative of the Federal Reserve noted that the state of the yield curve will be important for the course of the Fed's thoughts.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the growth this week has reversed the downward trend that we have observed recently, but the further upside potential of the euro will be limited to large resistance levels around 1.1620 and 1.1680. If the risk assets are reduced after the publication of the FRS protocols, the levels 1.1500 and 1.1450 will be of good support, from which it will be possible to build the lower boundary of the already new uplink.

Quotations of oil rose slightly yesterday to the publication of data, which indicated a reduction in supply in the world market and a decline in stocks in the US. According to the report of the American Petroleum Institute, US oil inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks fell by 930,000 barrels.

However, today's data from the Energy Information Administration of the EIA of the US Department of Energy will be more important. Analysts expect that the data will also show a reduction in oil reserves last week by 2 million barrels, which will lead to the growth of quotations.

analytics5b7d129ca5bb3.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 22nd of August. The trading system "Regression channels". Negotiations on trade disagreements between China and

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b7d07ca9020a.png

Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

–°CI: 132.6763

The currency pair EUR / USD continued its upward movement on August 21, as evidenced by the purple bars of the indicator Heiken Ashi, and fulfilled the level of Murray "6/8". There are still no important macroeconomic reports at the disposal of traders. But today, two-day talks between China and the States on trade disagreements start. The Chinese delegation has already arrived in Washington. The Chinese Foreign Ministry hopes that the parties will manage to reach a mutually beneficial agreement. However, to be honest, at this stage it is difficult to imagine what a mutually beneficial agreement can be discussed. Trump is clearly pushing its terms of trade, simultaneously blaming China for the theft of intellectual property and other mortal sins. Accordingly, the leader of the States will arrange concessions to the Chinese side. He himself is unlikely to make an equal concession, since reciprocal and equal concessions are unlikely to help the States reduce the trade balance deficit with China. Thus, we believe that the parties will not be able to agree, and the conflict will only grow. Proceeding from this, it can be assumed that the demand for the US currency may again grow again in the near future, as the pair has already been sufficiently adjusted and current levels are already quite attractive for new sales, especially in anticipation of a new Fed rate hike in September.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1536

S2 - 1.1475

S3 - 1,1414

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1597

R2 = 1.1658

R3 = 1.1719

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD could not overcome the first target of 1.1597. Thus, correction may begin now, which can be confirmed by the turn of the indicator of Heikin Ashi down. In this case, small lots can be bargained for this movement with a view to removals.

Long positions can be opened in case of overcoming the level of 1,1597 with a target of 1,1658. Overcoming the first target will add confidence to the bulls, and the uptrend will continue its formation.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7d4fda23a5f.png

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed for a bearish breakout of the depicted consolidation range (0.7170 and 0.7350).

The quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 temporarily.

However, lack of bullish momentum made the bulls fail to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6700.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6700-0.6840) was executed. This allowed the current bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, early signs of bullish recovery are being manifested around the recent low around 0.6550. This allowed the current bullish pullback to occur.

Conservative traders should wait for deeper bullish pullback towards 0.6750 for a low-risk SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7d4fd3948e8.png

Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range (1.2200).

The price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is testing the price zone of 1.1450-1.1370 (demand zone) where the depicted trend lines are located on the depicted weekly chart.

On August 10, temporary bearish closure below 1.1400 was achieved. This allowed further bearish decline towards 1.1300 where evident bullish recovery was demonstrated.

If the current bullish pullback persists above 1.1520, the bearish scenario would be hindered for the short-term. Further bullish advancement should be expected towards 1.1750.

On the other hand, For the weekly Head & Shoulders reversal pattern to be confirmed, the EUR/USD pair needs obvious bearish persistence below 1.1400.

Initial bearish target would be located around 1.1275 then 1.1120 if enough bearish pressure is applied.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair for August 21. Results of the day. The pound sterling is in unprecedented demand

4-hour timeframe

zn4J-X8JPW9bE4WHQ5ADrDNHEFVSf29gYYJpkCB4

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 123p - 73p - 68p - 55p - 69p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 78p (76p).

It was a starry day for the English currency, although now, it looks like a calm before the storm. No, as it was not before, there are no weighty fundamental reasons for strengthening the British pound. Thus, a logical conclusion arises where the reasons are purely technical. And then everything falls into place as correction for the pound sterling has been brewing for a long time. The question is, how long will it last? According to the logic of things, in the next few days it may be completed, and traders will start buying new US currency. But now we should monitor the coincidence of technical and fundamental grounds for US dollar purchases. That is, first we recommend waiting for the formation of the "dead cross" on the instrument, and only then consider the shorts as working lots. The fact is that the US dollar has risen in price in recent months, and buying at the peak was always risky. Therefore, we recommend opening new orders for sale only after receiving confirmation that the downtrend is resumed. Moreover, we should take note that any negative message on the topic of Brexit from the UK or a new speech by Trump, which will further aggravate the situation with Turkey or China, may cause a new demand for the American currency. Today such a statement from Trump has already sounded one. The leader of the US denied any concessions to Turkey, well, and quite expectedly accused the country and Erdogan of committing a terrible mistake.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD pair continues its upward movement and surpassed the level of 1.2830. Thus, now it is recommended to remain open to the earlier buy-positions with the target of 1.2911. Turning the MACD indicator down will signal the beginning of the correction.

It is recommended to open sell orders after traversing the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the target for the shorts will be the support level of 1.2664, and the downtrend will be resumed.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Compromise between the US and China does not help investors who put on growth

While US stock indices test new local highs or at least try to stay close to them, the dollar is under pressure in the foreign exchange market amid hopes of market participants that a compromise will still be reached in the talks between Beijing and Washington.

As reported, the meeting, or a new round of talks, the US and PRC this week is the most important event of this month, which is not very rich in phenomena so significant in importance. Markets hope that this time it will be possible to reach a compromise and the threat to the growth of the world economy, and hence the demand for risky assets, passes. To hope, of course, it is possible and necessary, but otherwise, why should one live then, but there is a reality, D. Trump. The American president, having rolled up his sleeves, actively took up the "making" of America the Great. Realizing that economically, in the competitive struggle with both Europe and China, this can not be done, he took a course of power pressure. Covering all sorts of cavils, the States impose real sanctions against competitors, trying to push them out of the economic Olympus and remain there alone. They use force to try to force them to shift the focus of preferences in favor of the United States. Proceeding from this statement of the issue, we believe that if an agreement is reached, it will most likely be temporary and will look like a tactical truce.

The US has no choice, so they will put pressure on all its competitors. Someone and these are small political satellites, will be able to squeeze and make work for the greatness of America, and it will be difficult to deal with someone like with China and even Europe, which already in the person of its leader A. Merkel.

Based on our estimates, which are based on the current situation, we believe that so far the situation will not change at all, which means that after a possible positive result of the meeting between the representatives of the United States and China, there will be a sobering up and a new spiral of tension. Against this background, we believe that after a local weakening, the US dollar may again receive broad support.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD currency pair is testing the level of 1.1560, overcoming of which may lead to its correction to the level of 1.1500. the reason for this can serve as profit-taking on expectations of the real outcome of the meeting between the US and China on trade duties.

The AUD / USD currency pair is clearly turning down on the expectations of the outcome of the meeting between the Americans and the Chinese. A fall below the mark of 0.7340 may be the reason for the price decline to 0.7285.

analytics5b7d05e36ab1a.png

analytics5b7d05f24cccb.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The review of the currency market from August 22, 2018

The dollar continued its decline, and already in time to say that the euro and the pound are seriously overbought. Of course, political factors contributed to the decline of the dollar, although macroeconomic data also did not. The fact is that the borrowing of the public sector in the UK fell by 2.9 billion pounds, rather than 2.3 billion pounds, as predicted. But the main factor in the weakening of the dollar this time was US policy. The fact is that today the negotiations between the US and China on trade issues will start, and early in the morning, Donald Trump said that he does not expect any progress from them. It means that China will not make unilateral concessions demanded by the White House, which, of course, does not please the forty-fifth US president. And the longer this whole situation with trade wars continues, it is more and more obvious that the possibilities of the US are extremely limited and there are not so many forces to impose their will. Naturally, this has a negative impact on the dollar, although from time to time we see a surge in its growth, and in the short term, uncertainty plays to its advantage. But with long-term prospects and even medium-term, the situation is not that rosy.

Today, one should not wait for any statements about the talks between the US and China. All statements will be made tomorrow. Today, it is worth paying attention to data on housing sales in the secondary market, which may grow by 0.6%, as well as the publication of the final protocol of the meeting of the Federal Commission for open market operations. Sales growth is good news, but the indicator is not so significant, but the publication of the text of the protocol is one of the most important events of the week. Investors are almost sure that the text of the protocol will confirm that before the end of this year, the Fed will double again the refinancing rate. This scenario has long been taken into account by the market, but given the oversold dollar, we will most likely see a rebound leveling a number of imbalances. Confidence that this is what market participants will find in the text of the protocol is that the Federal Reserve has never given reasons to doubt that the regulator adheres to the previously outlined plans.

In this regard, there is virtually no doubt that the single European currency will fall to 1.1500 - 1.1525.

analytics5b7d09906937e.png

The pound will also have to give up a few positions, and it will drop to 1.2800 - 1.2825.

analytics5b7d0999aa243.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on August 22 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Yesterday, all the customers' goals were worked out. Today, you can take a closer look at long positions after returning to the resistance level of 1.1579 in order to reach new highs 1.1617 and 1.1653, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decline in the euro in the morning, the signal to buy will be a false breakout at 1.1538, or a rebound from a larger support of 1.1493.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

It is best to consider short positions after the formation of a false breakdown and return to the resistance level of 1.1579. The first target of the sellers will be the lower limit of the channel of 1.1538, and the main task will be a decrease to the level of support 1.1493, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of EUR / USD growth above 1.1579, you can sell immediately for a rebound from resistance 1.1617.

analytics5b7d0bf90b380.png

Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro and the pound use the temporary weakness of the dollar

EUR / USD

The euro continues to recover from the 12-month lows achieved in the first half of August. The immediate reason for the reversal is the practical result of the talks between Trump and the European Commission Chairman Juncker held in late July, which resulted in a joint statement that the parties will now focus on improving transatlantic trade relations.

The market initially took this statement with suspicion, but further events showed that the agreement would work, and therefore, the tariff restrictions on steel and aluminum would be reassessed, an agreement on the freezing of unilateral actions began to act, and even rumors arose about the possibility of resuming negotiations on the transatlantic issue partnership.

Thus, one of the main factors in the recovery of the euro is political, as for the macroeconomic parameters, they are also in favor of the euro, albeit with reservations. Of the minuses, is expected to slow the growth of GDP in the eurozone, as the indicators indicate a deterioration of the business climate in Germany.

analytics5b7cfac947feb.png

On the other hand, the dynamics of inflation looks stable, for three months in a row, it has been growing and in July, it reached the level of 2.1%, which actually exceeds the target level of the ECB. Until recently, it was explained, first of all, by rising energy prices, but in summer another factor began to act: rising prices for products of the scripture, which was contributed by the drought.

Secondary inflation factors also look confident. The growth of the labor market in the euro area leads to an increase in wages, which has a positive impact on core inflation.

Thus, the probability of seeing a tightening of monetary policy by the end of the year has grown significantly. It is clear that the ECB does not plan raising rates at this stage, however, the asset buy-back program is curtailed, and access to liquidity will become more complicated.

Thus, the current growth of the euro is a correction of the overestimated fears of traders caused by the trade war, the Fed's policy and the rapid growth of the US economy. The dollar appreciated quite objectively, but now we must proceed from the fact that the eurozone shows its own drivers, which will help strengthen the euro.

Today, the currency pair EUR / USD is aiming for growth, the immediate goal is the previous high of 1.1628. In case of its confident passage, it is necessary to focus on the next, more important goal of 1.1750.

GBP / USD

Despite the fact that the Bank of England unanimously raised the rate by a quarter of a percent at the last meeting, its confidence is doubtful. In fact, all inflation forecasts are based on options for the development of the situation with Brexit, as they will lead to serious changes in the volume of trade, both in GDP and labor migration.

In the quarterly inflation report, the forecast is cautious and does not differ much from the May one, however, the cloud of inflation probabilities, however, is shifting to 2%, that is, the weak pound factor has completed its action, and it is difficult to justify tightening of monetary policy in conditions of lower consumer prices, especially at weak rates of GDP growth. This is the fundamental difference in the situation in the UK from the eurozone.

analytics5b7cfadb2c063.png

The government's Brexit plan, presented in the summer, was met with skepticism, and few believe that it will be adopted at the summit in October. These expectations will put pressure on the pound, as they increase the danger of a tough exit from the EU.

There are a number of other negative factors for the pound. Uncertainty leads to a decline in investment in business, as the labor market may be squeezed due to a tough resolution of the issue on migrants, which in turn will reduce the purchasing power of the population. In these circumstances, the Bank of England will not go on reducing the government bond stock, which was previously purchased in the amount of 435 billion pounds, and, thus, will lag behind the ECB and the Fed in the dynamics of reducing the balance. This factor will continue to put pressure on the pound in the long term.

Nevertheless, for the next day, the currency pair GBP / USD can take advantage of a favorable conjuncture and win back part of the losses. The nearest target is 1.2955, in case it does not stand, the target will move to the level of 1.3050.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brent weighs the risks

While the market is speculating that more importantly, the reduction of US stocks or the sale of oil from strategic reserves, sanctions against Iran or a slowdown in global demand, Brent and WTI are moving toward consolidation. Meeting representatives of Washington and Beijing on the eve of the expansion of US import duties on the supply of goods from China from $ 34 billion to $ 50 billion is perceived as a "bullish" factor for black gold. China is its largest consumer, so the slowdown in GDP is perceived by investors as a factor in reducing global demand. An armistice between conflicting parties, on the contrary, interest in oil should be strengthened.

The trade war is one of the reasons why Beijing will continue to buy oil from Iran despite Washington's calls to reduce exports from this Middle Eastern country to zero. And if European and Japanese companies are on the sidelines of the United States because of fears that the latter will block their oxygen on concluded deals in US dollars, then the position of the Celestial Empire compels her to not be afraid of anything. The Americans are going to openly blackmail, the Chinese media claim that their country will never be Washington's vassal.

Donald Trump and his team are well aware that sanctions against Tehran will result in rising oil prices, which will hit the wallets of Americans buying gasoline and may slow down their spending and gain cruising speed of GDP. In such a situation, the decision to sell 11 million black gold from a 660 million strategic reserve for two months seems to be the right decision. Yes, the figure is not so great in comparison with the withdrawal from the market of 0.7-1 million b / s of Iranian extraction, however, the dashing trouble began!

Dynamics of strategic oil reserves in the USA

analytics5b7bedccc54d4.png

The states decided to take matters into their own hands after Saudi Arabia, instead of fulfilling the June promise to increase production, reduced it in July. According to BNP Paribas, OPEC oil production will decrease to 32.1 million b / s in 2018 and to 31.7 million b / s in 2019. Simultaneously, the French bank expects to see a production increase outside the cartel by 2 million b / s in the current and by 1.9 million b / s next year. World demand will increase by 1.4 million b / s per year in 2018-2019.

The "bullish" factors include the adjustment of unexpectedly grown by the end of the five-day period by August 10 US stocks and some weakening of the US dollar against the backdrop of Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with the policy of the Fed. According to Bloomberg experts, stocks will drop by 2 million b / d by August 17. The US president claims that he appointed Jerome Powell to the post of chairman of the Central Bank because of his "pigeon" views. Now the owner of the White House is disappointed by the too rapid increase in the rate of federal funds.

Technically, the "bulls" for Brent were able for the third time in a row to repel an attack of opponents on support at $ 71.35 per barrel and go into a counteroffensive. Despite the fact that "bears" do not leave hopes for the implementation of the target at 161.8% and 88.6% for the AB = CD and "Bat" patterns, a confident assault on the upper boundary of the downward trading channel will increase the risks of continuing the rally.

Brent, the daily chart

analytics5b7bedd936226.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Limited growth potential of the pound

In the afternoon, data came out that did not exert significant pressure on the British pound and was generally ignored by the market. The bullish trend, which was formed earlier this week, is gradually slowing down and dying out, and the return of the trading instrument to certain levels of support may negatively affect the further corrective perspective.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain, the pace of borrowing the public sector in the first four months of the financial year has slowed significantly, which may affect the prospects for economic growth. However, this fact will help to correct the UK budget deficit in the next few years.

The net borrowing of the UK public sector in July this year fell by 2.0 billion pounds against 1.0 billion pounds a year earlier, based on the reports. Economists had expected a reduction of 0.8 billion pounds. Thus, in July 2018 the volume of repaid debt exceeded borrowing by 2 billion pounds. The net public sector demand for cash in the UK fell by 17.9 billion pounds against 1.4 billion pounds a year earlier.

analytics5b7c09c9d4c7f.png

A good sign of a healthy economy is tax revenue from companies that have increased significantly compared to the same period of the previous year.

As for the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair, there is no need to expect serious growth in the near future. While the situation with Brexit will not clear up definitively and a certain trade agreement with the European Union will not be concluded, the British pound will continue to remain under pressure from the US dollar due to further interest rates increase in the US this fall. The only thing that can save the pound is similar measures on the part of the Bank of England, but everything there is not so clear.

While the trade is held above 1.2820, the demand for the pound will continue to be maintained, which allows us to count on a new wave of short-term growth in areas of 1.2890 and 1.2950. However, if the bears return to the market, the breakthrough of 1.2820 will lead to an immediate sell-off and withdrawal of large players from the market, which will crash the trading instrument in the support area of 1.2760 and 1.2690.

Returning to the topic of Chinese measures to support its economy and stimulate its growth, it should be noted that yesterday the State Council of China decided to meet halfway business, which consists 60% of the economy.

The message says that the government will soon strengthen the support of not only large companies but small businesses and those that have limited access to the credit banking system.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7d3599e4cfd.png

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found the breakout of the neckline (HSS pattern), which is a sign that buyers are in control. The good support (previous high) is set at the price of $6.588. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities near the support with the upward targets at the price of $6.867 and at the price of $7.269 (HSS projected target).

Support/Resistance

$6.867 – Intraday resistance

$6.588– Intraday support

$6.867 – Objective target 1

$7.269 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7d31beaa45e.png

Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2890. According to the M30 time frame, I found that price is trading in the well defined upward regression channel, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a rejection from the daily pivot (1.2872) and oversold condition on the stochastic oscillator, which are signs of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2923 (yesterday's high), 1.2950 (R1) and at the price of 1.300 (R2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2952

R2: 1.3004

R3: 1.3084

Support levels:

S1: 1.2820

S2: 1.2740

S3: 1.2688

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for August 22, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which lead the price to reside above $6,500 area where the price has been struggling to break out for a few days. The price has not yet settled above $6,500 but as the price closes with a daily candle above $6,500 further bullish momentum is expected in the coming days. The price has breached above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well and heading towards the Kijun and Kumo Cloud resistance which might stop the price bullish pressure for certain periods while surging higher with a target towards $8,000. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 8,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7d2e2f1830c.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair for August 21. The results of the week. Trump more important new trading conditions than the dollar

4-hour timeframe

uHzOpDCIoqfztK7_CNlQswO2-Id5FBIsUQ1WASsy

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 98p - 54p - 73p - 78p - 90p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 79n (74p).

From the very first day of the presidency of Donald Trump, he declared and continues to say that the country does not need a strong dollar. Actually, such a policy with low currency rate held by many countries but the US, in particular as Trump himself noted, does not need an expensive dollar due to the fact which makes it more difficult to service the country's huge external debt. However, with the contradictory statements, various scandals and other unfair play methods in the first year of the board, Trump managed to restrain the growth of the US currency. Moreover, it became cheaper, everyone was happy. But in early 2018, Trump's protectionism policy began to be interpreted in the world markets as a sign of US strength and traders began to expect a real strengthening of the US economy, buying dollars and American securities accordingly. It led to a strong growth of the dollar against almost all competitors. Now Trump is trying to walk already along the usual road. With the help of scandals, contradictory statements, he will try at least to contain the growth of the dollar. It all began with the criticism of Jerome Powell. Trump naturally does not support the rate increase, as this further strengthens the dollar. However, Powell and Trump seem to be on the same side, but the US leader does not care. The main thing is to reach the goal and the main goal now is to obtain new trading conditions with the countries with the largest turnover, in particular, Canada, China and the EU. Thus, we believe that firstly, Trump will try to improve by any means the trading conditions, which by the way, can lead to the transfer part of the production capacity of American companies back to the States.

Trading recommendations:

For the EUR/USD pair, the price worked out the resistance level of 1.1539 and could not overcome it. If the bulls manage to push this level, it will be possible to continue trading on the rise with the next target of 1.1609. However, it should be remembered that the fundamental background for the growth of the euro is now rather doubtful.

Short positions in small lots can be considered if the MACD indicator turns down, which will mark the beginning of the downward correction (at least) with the targets of the support level 1.1451 and the critical Kijun-sen line.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7d287c5c611.png

Overview:

Pivot: 1.3048.

The USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the levels of 1.3094 and 1.3048. The pair dropped from the level of 1.3094 to the bottom around 1.3018 then set around the spot of 1.3080. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3094 followed by 1.3132, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2974. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3094 and 1.2974; for that, we expect a range of 120 pips (1.3094 - 1.2974). If the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the minor resistance level of 1.3094 , the market will decline further to 1.3048. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.2974 with a view to testing the daily major support. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.3132, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7d28fb6dc07.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1575. According to the M30 time – frame, I found that price is trading in the well-defined upward regression channel, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found the breakout of the supply trendline and rejection of the daily pivot (1.1549), which are signs that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities with targets at the price of 1.1625 (pivot cluster) and 1.1670 (pivot R2)

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1620

R2: 1.1670

R3: 1.1740

Support levels:

S1: 1.1450

S2: 1.1428

S3: 1.1378

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7d23d3c2ac0.png

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair broke resistance at 0.6650 which turned into strong support yesterday. This level coincides with 50% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today. Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend. This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (0.6676) in the coming hours. The NZD/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 0.9958. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.6676 with the first target at 0.6712. Then, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to 0.6733 mark and further to 0.6759 levels. The level of 0.6759 will act as strong resistance, because the double top is already set at 0.6759. On the other hand, the daily strong support is seen at 0.6624. If the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the level of 0.6624, the market will decline further to 0.6541 (double bottom).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for August 22, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite bullish recently which led the price to reside at the edge of 0.6720 resistance area with certain indecision currently. Ahead of the high impact US economic reports and events, the pair is going to trade with higher volatility. Clear momentum will be determined by the end of this week.

NZD has been performing quite positively amid recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain consistent momentum in the process against USD whereas USD has been dominating other majors in the market. Today New Zealand's Retail Sales report was published with a significant increase to 1.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.4% and Core Retail Sales also increased to 1.4% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.8%.

On the other side, ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes today and FED Chair Powell's speech on Friday this week, today US Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 5.40M from the previous figure of 5.38M and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to decrease to -1.6M from the previous figure of 6.8M. Trump has again targeted the FED for the hawkish stance on monetary policy. Besides, FED officials signaled their intention that 3 to 4 times rate hikes are yet to be done before the regulator takes a pause. This hawkish rhetoric is likely to encourage further gains of USD side in the future.

Meanwhile, NZD has the potential to push the price further higher against USD. However, upcoming US economic reports and events are expected to open the door for further gains of NZD in the process. Before the weekend, definite pressure in the market can be observed which will determine further momentum in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.6720 area with an indecisive daily candle ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes and FED Chair's speech this week. Despite the positive economic data, NZD did not quite meet the expectation of impulsive bullish pressure against USD. A daily close above 0.6720 is expected to push the price higher towards 0.6850 and later towards 0.7050 area. Additionally, the bearish trend has already given birth to a Regular Bullish Divergence which is indicating further bullish momentum for the coming days. As the price remains above 0.65 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.65

RESISTANCE: 0.6720, 0.6850, 0.7050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7d03f994e1d.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 22, 2018

EUR/USD has bounced back above the previous support current resistance area at 1.15. Price has reached the long-term downward sloping trend line resistance at 1.16 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last leg down.

analytics5b7d075e78efc.png

Red line - support

Blue line - long-term trend line resistance

EUR/USD has reached a critical inflection point. The price is challenging the downward sloping trend line resistance that comes from 1.24. The price has also reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 1.1790 area decline. If the bearish trend is to continue, the prices should reverse lower from current levels. If the medium and longer-term trends are about to change to bullish, we should see a continuation of this upward movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for August 22, 2018

Gold price has made a marginal new high during the US session and is now pulling back down. Price could not push above $1,200. Gold price has stopped its rise at a major resistance area. A pullback towards $1,180 is justified.

analytics5b7d0526a0987.png

Green lines - bullish channel

Red line - bearish divergence

Gold price is trading inside a bullish channel. Once we break support at $1,191, we should expect at least a pullback towards the 38% or even the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area. If the price pulls back and makes a higher low, we should be optimistic that a major low is in and the next leg up will at least push towards $1,250. If however, the price starts making lower lows and lower highs, we should expect a move towards $1,140. As far as trading is concerned, short-term traders can short Gold as long as the price is below $1,200-$1,205 looking for a move towards $1,180 at least if not new lows towards $1,140. Gold bulls can try and go long near $1,175 with August lows as stop.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of USDCAD for August 22, 2018

USD/CAD is currently quite indecisive after having an impulsive bearish momentum leading the price towards the support area of 1.2950-1.3050. This week the pair is expected to be quite volatile as of upcoming high impact USD and CAD economic reports and events to be held.

CAD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports whereas upcoming economic results are also expected to play a vital part in the process. Today Canada's Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 2.0% and Core Retail Sales is expected to also decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 1.4%.

On the USD side, ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes today and FED Chair Powell's speech on Friday this week, today the US Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 5.40M from the previous figure of 5.38M. Besides, the Crude Oil Inventories is expected to decrease to -1.6M from the previous figure of 6.8M. Trump has been criticizing FED for raising interest rates recently whereas FED officials has disclosed further 3 to 4 times maximum rate hikes are yet to be done before it takes a pause which is expected to lead to further gains on the USD side in the future.

As of the current scenario, CAD has been quite optimistic with the economic reports earlier but this time the forecasts are dovish whereas better than expected result with decrease from the previous value is also expected to add to the CAD gains against USD in the process. Ahead of the high impact USD events this week, certain volatility is expected but after the CAD results today, definite momentum can be observed in the process which is expected to lead to one-way pressure in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the support area of 1.2950-1.3050 whereas the price is mostly expected to push as of the bullish trend in process. As of the current scenario, a daily close above 1.3050 is needed for further bullish momentum higher with target towards 1.3300 resistance area in the future. On the other hand, a daily close below 1.2950 is expected to indicate a strong counter of the previous bullish trend which is expected to push the price much lower towards 1.2750 support area in the future. A daily close above or below the range bound of 1.2950-1.3050 is expected to inject further definite one-way pressure for the future price action in the pair. As the price remains above 1.2950 area, the bullish bias is expected to push higher for the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1.2950, 1.2750

RESISTANCE: 1.3050, 1.3300

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7d00eccfb9d.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 22/08/2018

On Wednesday, the 22nd of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases. It will be another day without significant macroeconomic publications during the European session. In the afternoon we will get information on the US real estate market, and in the evening, there will be the publication of minutes from the last FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD analysis for 22/08/2018:

The largest financial institutions do not expect anything significant after today's publication of FOMC Meeting Minutes. Members of the Committee rather agree that the economy is growing as expected. Barclays believes that the emphasis of the message will be on a strong increase in consumption and employment, which is partly a result of the strong influence of a more lenient fiscal policy. The message regarding a gradual increase in interest rates will probably be maintained as only this year there were two rate hikes, currently, they are at the level of 2% after the June increase. Economists are expecting two more hikes this year. The FED rhetoric should change in the near future as the members of the Committee must begin to think about the gradual slowdown of the current tightening of rates.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the FED Meeting Minutes data are published. The market bounced from the technical support at the level of 1/1506 and broke through the 61% Fibo at 1.1575 with a local high at the level of 1.1599. The next target for bulls is located at the level of 1.1630, but the market conditions remain overbought, so a short-term pull-back might occur anytime now. The momentum is still strong and supports the bullish case.

analytics5b7cfd5215469.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for August 22, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish momentum since the bounce off the 124.50-125.50 support area with a daily close. Despite the recent Trade War tension, EURO has gained good momentum over JPY recently which is expected to fade away at the current market situation as series of optimistic JPY report is going to be published this week.

JPY has been struggling to meet the inflation target of 2% recently for which all the BOJ decisions are directed on the bias. As most of the countries are increasing rates, but BOJ is trying to sustain the previous rate until a sustainable growth is observed before the rate hike. Tomorrow, JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 52.4 from the previous figure of 52.3 and on Friday, JPY National Core CPI report is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.8% and SPPI is expected to be unchanged at 1.2%.

On the other hand, being stuck with the BREXIT effect with UK, EURO has been quite on the top form for a few days now despite the recent volatility against JPY. European Union leaders are currently expecting an agreement sign with UK by November summit which is expected to empower the currency for the long-term, but currently, EURO is not on the total form to have definite strong long-term gains the process. EURO has been quite indecisive with the recent economic reports, but it somehow managed to meet the expectations leading to certain gains against JPY which are expected to be short lived. This week, on Thursday, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts report is going to be held which is expected to have neutral impact on the further EURO gains, whereas German Final GDP report to be published on Friday is also forecasted to have unchanged value of 0.5%, resting the market to further indecision in the process.

As of the current scenario, JPY is going quite strong with recent economic reports and achieving their fundamental targets in the process, whereas EURO is still struggling with the BREXIT and Trade War tensions. Though EURO gained good momentum recently, but JPY is expected to have an upper hand for the long-term gains in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of dynamic level of 20 EMA resting at the 127.85 area from where the price is expected to push lower towards the support area of 124.50-125.50 in the coming days. The bias is still quite bearish and expected to remain unchanged as the price remains below the 129.50 area with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 124.50, 125.50

RESISTANCE: 129.00-50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7cf79e586e5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 22/08/2018

Zheshang Bank, one of the largest private commercial banks in China, using the Blockchain proprietary platform, completed the issue of securities worth 66 million. dollars. Based on public documents, the bank filed a prospectus at the Shanghai Clearing House on August 13, claiming that it would support securities with a portfolio of receivables from various corporations.

According to the report of the China Securities Journal, the bank ended its broadcast on 17 August, becoming one of the first institutions in the country that made such an issue in the Blockchain network.

The Blockchain platform, called Lianrong, was developed by the bank to enable registered companies to broadcast assets to potential investors and enable them to settle invoice transactions as securities in peer-to-peer mode. By purchasing receivables from the company's account, the investor generally pays for the overdue invoice of the company at a discount and expects to receive the full amount from the side responsible for making the original payment later.

Founded in 2004, Zheshang Bank is one of 12 commercial banks in China that have launched various Blockchain initiatives over the past 12-18 months. However, it is not the only financial institution that has requested this technology to offer special asset-backed securities.

JD Finance, a subsidiary of the China electronics giant JD.com, announced in June a plan to launch a similar product through a distributed network in cooperation with another commercial bank.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price broke through the technical resistance at the level of $6,597 and spiked towards the level of $6,889 (the weekly pivot resistance) before was capped. Currently, the market is testing the previous resistance (now support) and it will all depend on the market behavior on this level.

analytics5b7cf6440f1e8.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for August 22, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which lead the price above 1.2850 with a daily close. GBP having positive economic reports recently despite the rising tensions, the currency pushed higher against USD which is indeed quite remarkable.

GBP having pressures of Trade War and BREXIT, the currency was dominated consistently for a series of periods. Recently GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing report was published with a positive decrease to -2.9B from the previous figure of 3.3B which was expected to be at -2.1B. The positive report did help the currency to gain certain momentum having USD being silent without any economic reports recently. Though upcoming economic reports are forecasted to be dovish, any positive outcome on them is expected to inject further bullish pressure in the pair.

On the USD side, today FOMC Meeting Minutes report is going to be held which is expected to have a neutral impact on the USD gains in the process. Ahead of the Core Durable Goods Orders report to be published which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% and FED Chair Powell's speech on Friday certain volatility is expected in the pair. Though USD has been the dominant currency in the pair but having Trade War to impact the USD as well, certain spikes may be observed in the process.

As of the current scenario, GBP gains currently is expected to sustain further until the upcoming high impact USD economic events and reports are published. Though USD is expected to have an upper hand in the long-term, the outcome of the upcoming events is expected to have a greater impact on the overall result and trend establishments.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has breached above 1.2850 with a strong bullish momentum which is expected to push the price higher towards 1.3050 area in the coming days from where the bearish momentum is expected to continue with the preceding trend in the process. As the price remains below the 1.3200 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 1.2550 in the future.

SUPPORT: 1.2850, 1.2550

RESISTANCE: 1.3050, 1.3200

LONG TERM BIAS: BEARISH

SHORT TERM BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

analytics5b7cf15818ee0.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal!

AUD/USD is testing its resistance at 0.7374 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance), where a reversal to its support at 0.7283 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) is expected. Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 95%, where a corresponding drop is expected. We have also identified a bearish divergence with price that contributes to our bearish bias.

AUD/USD is testing its resistance, where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 0.7374. Stop loss at 0.7440. Take profit at 0.7283.

.

.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/JPY Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal!

NZD/JPY is testing its resistance at 74.09(61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where a reversal to its support at 73.07(61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) is expected.

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected.

NZD/JPY is testing its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 74.09. Stop loss at 74.71. Take profit at 73.07.

.

.

.

.

.

#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 21. Pound sterling is ready to build 4 waves

analytics5b7bbe1b8dc4c.png

Analysis of wave counting:

During the trade on August 20, the GBP/USD pair gained about 55 bp, so the probability of the completing the construction of the downward trend section increases. The internal wave counting of the assumed wave 3, appears to be almost complete. Accordingly, this wave can be completed and the pair has moved to build wave 4 in a. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will continue with the targets being about 200.0% and 161.8% of Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through the minimum of August 15 may lead to a complication of the proposed wave 3, a.

Targets for buying:

1.2927 - 200.0% by Fibonacci

1.3027 - 161.8% by Fibonacci

Target for selling:

1.2636 - 261.8% by Fibonacci (the oldest Fibonacci grid)

1.2312 - 423.6% Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is expected to complete the wave construction 5, at 3, in a. So, it is recommended to buy the pair of small volumes with the first targets near the estimated levels of 1.2927 and 1.3027, which equates to 200.0% and 161.8% of Fibonacci, calculated on the construction of wave 4, in a . Breaking the minimum wave 3, a will indicate the willingness of the instrument to complicate the downward trend section and further reduce.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7cdae23ab1f.png

EUR/NZD once again failed to break above important short-term resistance at 1.7355 and instead turned around to make a small new low at 1.7211. This is a disappointment and keeps red wave ii alive, but it does not change our larger bullish count calling for more upside pressure above 1.7484 longer-term. To confirm that red wave ii has completed, we still need a break above resistance at 1.7355 and as long as this short-term important resistance remains able to cap the upside, red wave ii could dip closer to 1.7196, but the potential downside should be limited to here for a break above minor resistance at 1.7327 and more importantly a break above 1.7355 confirming red wave iii is developing for a rally above 1.7484.

R3: 1.7355

R2: 1.7327

R1: 1.7275

Pivot: 1.7255

S1: 1.7221

S2: 1.7196

S3: 1.7162

Trading recommendation:

Ous stop was hit for a small loss of 20 pips. We will re-buy EUR at 1.7205 or upon a break above 1.7327 and place our stop at 1.7200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 22, 2018

analytics5b7cd690c4e7d.png

EUR/JPY has rallied to a high of 128.06 or 12 small pips above our ideal target at 127.94, but staying below important resistance at 128.48 our slightly preferred count calls for a final dip in wave v/ to complete wave C of II. Normally two of the waves, in a five wave sequence, are equal in length and one wave is extended. In this case wave iii/ clearly is extended, calling for wave v/ to be equal in length to wave i/ and that will leave us a target at 125.43, which is above the low of wave iii/. This is a possibility under the EWP, but a possible failure should never be anticipated in advance, so we need to assume, that wave v/ will dip below the end of wave iii/. The next likely target for wave v/ is seen at 124.62 or just above the start of wave I, this possibility will keep all requirements under the EWP in line, so that will be our assumption. That said, we also need to stress, that wave II is running out of time fast. So any break above 128.48 or a failure to make the expected dip before August 30, will shift the preferred count in favor of a low of wave C at 124.89 and wave III developing already.

R3: 129.48

R2: 129.00

S3: 128.06

Pivot: 127.33

S1: 126.83

S2: 126.05

S3: 125.68

Trading recommendation:

We sold half of our long position at 127.40 for a nice 115 pips profit. We are now 50% long from 126.25 and we will move our stop higher to 126.80 and if done, we will re-buy EUR at 124.75.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD Divergences on August 21. There are no signals to complete the growth of the euro

4h

analytics5b7bb2574c265.png

On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed fixation above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1508. Thus, the process of growth of quotations may resume on August 21 towards the next correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1576. Brewing divergences today is not noticeable in any indicator. The pair's retracement from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop towards the correction level of 100.0%. Securing the pair under the Fibo level of 100.0% can be treated similarly as a reversal in favor of the US dollar.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from June 21, 2018 and July 9, 2018.

Daily

analytics5b7bb267267ac.png

On the 24-hour chart, the quotations performed growth to the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.1553. The pair's retracement from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the decline towards the correction level of 127.2% to 1.1285. There are no developing divergences today. Fixing the quotes above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chance of the pair to continue growing towards the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR/USD pair can be carried out with a target of 1.1576 and a stop loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0%, since the pair completed the closing above the correction level of 1.1508.

The EUR/USD pair can be open with a target at 1.1431 if the pair completes the 100.0% Fibo close, with a Stop Loss order above 1.1508.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. August 21. Trading system "Regression channels". Bulls finally took the initiative in their hands

4-hour timeframe

analytics5b7bb2f91411e.png

Technical data:

Higher channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

CCI: 229.9207

On August 20, the GBP/USD currency pair finally worked and overcame the moving middle line. But the main thing is that the bulls on the instrument finally activated and began to buy the British pound. It is difficult to say how long the growth of the British currency will continue, but the consolidation above the removals will indicate support for the bulls by technical factors. There is nothing special to note on the macroeconomic events neither on the first trading day of the week nor in the second. But in this situation, it can even be in the hands of the British pound, given the fact that we have not received any optimistic reports and after a long time, the only report from the UK is about the willingness of the Bank of England to further tighten monetary policy regardless. The US data were continually ignored by traders and attention is drawn only to the speeches of Donald Trump, which will soon be predicted easily: the introduction of new trade restrictions against another country. In most cases, reports about the trade war escalation between the States and partners led to an increase in the US currency. However, sooner or later such an effect should be completed, as market participants failed to understand that the trade war will negatively affect the US economy, at least in the medium term.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.2817

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.2939

R2 = 1.3062

R3 = 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair overcame the removals. Thus, it is recommended to open long positions with the target at 1.2939. It is also recommended not to open long in large lots, since both linear regression channels are directed downward, and the CCI indicator is heavily overbought.

Sell-positions are recommended to be opened only after the reverse fixing of the price below the moving average line. In this case, the downward trend on the instrument will resume, and the shorts will become relevant with the target at 1.2695.

In addition to the technical picture, traders should consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lower channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Murray Levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones AUD/USD 21.08.18

The upward movement remains a priority, which considers any decline to find advantageous buying prices. Yesterday, there was a test of the first target zone NKZ 0.7341-0.7329.

The first formation phase of the upward model is completed and there was a test of the weekly short-term 0.7341-0.7329 since yesterday, which allowed the fixations of long position. Further growth will depend on whether the pair can gain a foothold above this zone. If this happens, the next target will be the NKZ 1/2 0.7410-0.7403 formed from the current zone. This will provide an opportunity to hold some portion of the purchases and consider new deals in case of a decline in the pair. The first support for finding purchases today is the NKZ 1/4 0.7314-0.7311.

analytics5b7b6bbe7d2b2.png

Growth from current marks is also possible, however, purchases at these prices will not be profitable because of lack of momentum which can be an advantage to set a stop-loss. This indicates the need to expect more favorable prices.

The alternative reversal model has a probability of 30% and requires the absorption of yesterday's growth and the closing of the American session below the NKZ 1/4 0.7324-0.7331. This will allow to consider sales against the last impulse movement. Closing the today's trading above the level of 0.7341 will prevent this formation, so players need a large offer on one of the volatile trading sessions.

analytics5b7b6cdbd549d.png


Daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.

Monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump does not need a strong dollar?

The European currency and the British pound rose against the US dollar, but it is still not possible to maintain the current growth rates. Pressure on the US dollar was formed on Monday in the afternoon, after the President of the United States Donald Trump criticized the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell.

It has long been clear that Trump does not share the policy of the Fed chairman, as it makes the US dollar less competitive. Let me remind you that in the near future the Fed plans to further tighten monetary policy, and a number of investors expect that the central bank may even double the rate this year to normalize the policy.

Trump also criticized China and the European Union, which, in his opinion, are engaged in the manipulation of their currencies. Most likely, it was about the fact that China constantly resorts to the policy of weakening the national currency, and the European Central Bank is in no hurry to start raising interest rates after the US, which leads to an imbalance and demand for the US dollar from a number of investors.

There are also rumors on Tuesday that in the near future the administration of US President Donald Trump may decide to impose new tariffs on goods from China, which will affect almost half of imports. Fees can be imposed, even despite the discontent of a number of large US companies, as well as a new phase of the US-China trade negotiations.

Despite all this, the short-term growth potential of the European currency and the British pound is under big questions. It is likely that the big players who are betting on further strengthening of the US dollar, such an upward movement is even necessary, which allowed to remove a number of stop orders of short-term sellers above large resistance levels and gain a new position for further downward movement.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the upside potential is limited by the resistance of 1.1540, and only its breakthrough will allow us to expect further strengthening of risky assets, with an update of the highs of 1.1600 and 1.1660. In the event of a resumption of the euro decline, which seems to be a more likely scenario, support will be provided by levels 1.1460 and 1.1400.

The Australian dollar ignored the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia and only slightly strengthened against the US dollar.

The RBA protocols indicated that the next change in interest rates is likely to be an increase, but currently there is no serious argument in favor of changes in interest rates in the short term, as the preservation of rates at the same level provides stability and confidence.

analytics5b7be44ad3e12.png

The RBA also believes that the current level of rates allows to achieve the target level of inflation, as the fall in electricity prices can have a negative long-term impact on the consumer price index in Australia.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets are waiting for the outcome of negotiations between the US and China

Waiting for the result of a new meeting between Washington and Beijing on the issue of trade duties is seen by the markets as a positive step that could result, if not by a final compromise, then at least lead to a truce.

The US responded that it is ready for negotiations, but President D. Trump made it clear that if the compromise was not reached, the States could expand customs duties on half of all Chinese imports. The news about the willingness of Americans to enter into negotiations has already led to a strong growth of Chinese stock indices and the same positive demand for risky assets. Assessing this state of affairs, we can say that the European stock markets will open in the "green" zone on Tuesday.

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar, of course, is under pressure in such a situation. Up to this point, it has received good support precisely because of rising tensions in the markets and its status as a safe-haven currency. But on Tuesday it is actively sold, just on hopes that a compromise will be reached between the two largest economies in the world. Markets reasonably believe that the continuing tension between Washington and Beijing harms not only the economies of the US and China, but also the world, so investors hope that common sense will win.

Probably, he still believes that not all measures of influence, economic pressure to achieve preferences are used. It is likely that if, following the results of the meeting to be held this week, no breakthrough is achieved, and the United States in addition will announce new tariffs on half of Chinese imports, then the demand for risky assets will fall and the US dollar will again be in favor , but until the outcome of the meeting, it will probably remain under widespread pressure.

The forecast for Tuesday:

The EURUSD pair is trading above the level of 1.1500. It grows on the wave of demand for risky assets and dollar sales in investors' expectations of a positive outcome of the meeting between the US and China. If the pair holds above this level, it is likely to continue its local growth to 1.1575. At the same time, a decrease below this level will lead to its fall to 1.1445.

The USDCAD pair is above 1.3020. The pair may decline in the wave of rising demand for risk and the depreciation of the dollar. Pressure on the pair may also be exerted by the continued rise in oil prices. In this case, the pair may fall to 1.2975 after overcoming the mark of 1.3020.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 08/21/2018

The dollar was rapidly losing its positions on Monday, which was due to several factors. First, the dollar was pretty much overbought and a local correction was about to take place. It was brewing last week, but the uncertainty of market participants about the further US actions in the foreign policy arena forced it to remain cautious. Secondly, Turkey has filed a complaint with the WTO on customs duties, imposed by the United States, and so it joined the list of countries that express open resistance to the policy of the White House. All this frightens investors, as it gives the impression that the United States has already quarreled with its allies, and this does not bode well for America. Thirdly, the growth rate of the construction industry in Europe has accelerated from 2.0% to 2.6%, and although this is a rather weak indicator, it still contributed to the overall pattern of negative factors for the dollar.

On Tuesday, there are data on government borrowing in the UK, which may fall by 2.3 billion pounds. Although this is quite a positive factor for the pound, given the rapid sell-off of the dollar, which took place the previous day, it is heavily oversold, and against the background of expectations of Wednesday's publication of the text of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, it is worth waiting for a rebound. Investors expect that the text of the protocol will clearly indicate that the Fed will raise the refinancing rate twice before the end of this year. However, given the continuing uncertainty, as well as quite good data from the UK, most likely, we are waiting for stagnation in anticipation of Wednesday's news.

The EUR/USD currency pair, forming a corrective movement, was able to return to the previously broken range the level of 1,1510/1,1550. Likely to assume a gradual deceleration with the primary oscillation in the range of 1,1510/1,1550.

analytics5b7bb94544352.png

The pound/dollar currency pair formed a full-fledged correction, returning to the fractal on August 14, which previously reflected a pullback. Now there is a phase of fixation above the fractal. Likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within the framework of 1.2800/1,2850.

analytics5b7bb94f3c995.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN analysis of August 21, 2018

Bitcoin is still quite indecisive below $6,500 area which is going nowhere as of the current market structure. The price has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains yesterday which lead the price towards the Tenkan line dynamic support level and today an impulsive bullish counter was again observed which put the bulls at the front seat again. Though the price has been indecisive but having dynamic support respected well in the process is expected to inject further bullish momentum in coming days. As of the current scenario, a daily close above $6,500 is still expected for the price to push higher impulsively with target towards $8,000 area in the future.

SUPPORT: 6,000, 5,500

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 8,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5b7c3ccf5b1e2.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 21/08/2018

The macroeconomic data publications at the beginning of the week are light, but one of the most important information recently is the statement of Donald Trump being part of the interview given to the Reuters news agency. In an interview with Reuters journalists, the President of the United States openly criticized the Federal Reserve for the current tightening of monetary policy and interest rate increases.

According to Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve should support the actions taken by him and decisions aimed at improving the state of the American economy. Gradually raising interest rates in the current business cycle is inappropriate, in his opinion, and he intends to criticize the Fed until such a failure to stop the process of tightening its monetary policy.

This is not the first time that the American president negatively refers to the activities of the central bank, which in its assumptions should be independent of political pressure. Trump then stated that he was not "satisfied with rate hikes" referring to the first months of the term of office of Jerome Powell, whom he nominated himself to take over Janet Yellen's chair.

"We are conducting very strong and fruitful negotiations with other countries and we are going to win. During this period, however, we need a little support from the FED. Other countries have an adjustment policy, " said Trump in an interview with Reuters.

In response to the words of the American president, the local stock market was red before closing Monday's session. The US dollar followed in its footsteps, so let's take a look at the DXY technical picture at the H4 time frame.The market has drop towards the technical support at the level of 95.44 and now this level is being tested. In a case of a further sell-off, the next technical support is seen at the level of 95.15.

analytics5b7c3be088f91.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 21/08/2018

On Monday, the 13th of August, Turks woke up with a course of lira at the level of 7 per dollar, it became clear that the current policy in combating the crisis did not pass the exam. The joint actions undertaken by the government and the Turkish central bank at that time allowed the campaign to stop the downward spiral and the relative stabilization of the lira exchange rate at slightly below 6 per dollar. Lira is still losing about 38% values from the beginning of the year, but it seems that you have mastered the panic, well, at least for now.

Already a week ago, the support of the sinking lira came from the Turkish central bank. A statement appeared on his website that if necessary, the banking system would be helped by any liquidity. In addition, it enabled banks to take monthly currency loans, and not only weekly loans, as before. They also increased their foreign currency lending limits and relaxed the hedging and reserve policy in foreign exchange transactions, thus freeing about $ 6 billion in additional liquidity in banks.

In conclusion, markets participants that were afraid whether Turkish financial institutions will be able to continue servicing their dollar liabilities have been somewhat calmed down. "A bit" because analysts agree that what Turkey really needs today is a significant interest rate increase. This, however, can not count on two reasons. First of all, the next meeting of the Turkish central bank in this matter will take place on September 13. Secondly, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan strongly opposes any increases, which in a way binds the hands of the central bank increasingly dependent on the head of state. However, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is not completely defenseless in this situation and appealed to the tried and tested methods, ie raising interest rates through the back door. After the May increase in the cost of money in Turkey, the monetary policy would normalize. The basic interest rate was a weekly repo loan rate set at 17.75%. It was supplemented by an overnight lending rate of 19.25%. Thanks to this, if necessary, the central bank could manipulate the average weighted cost of financing banks by choosing the right proportions for loans - the more overnight loans, the higher the cost of money for banks.

Meanwhile, at the end of last week, the central bank completely closed the cock with weekly repo loans, forcing banks to borrow at an overnight rate. Thus, the effective cost of money for banks increased by 1.5 points percent. Officially, monetary policy has not changed, but in fact, rates have increased. And the markets are happy, and the president is not angry.

Although the past week brought relative stabilization of the lira exchange rate and temporarily restrained the wave of falling currency values, it ended with an unpleasant event for Turkey, namely a downgrade by S&P rating agencies to the level of B + and Moody's rating agency to Ba3. This means that, according to the agency, Turkey is currently able to settle its obligations, but is experiencing problems that put into question its ability and willingness to service debts in the future. The probability of bankruptcy with such an assessment is estimated at about 2.0% during the year and 12.0% within 5 years.

Although credit rating reduction was expected and already included in the lira course, it is also an important warning signal. None of the measures taken by the Turkish government and the central bank last week solves the fundamental problems of the Turkish economy, i.e. excessive foreign debt, the largest current account deficit among OECD countries and the instability of the banking system caused by excessive credit expansion. A certain change in this respect may result in the disclosure of more details of the economic program announced by Minister Albayrak, but it does not have to.

Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H4 time frame chart. The market is now trying to break out above the trend line resistance around the level of 6.04. The nearest resistnace is seen at the level of 6.41 and the nearest support is seen at the level of 5.68.

analytics5b7c3b02e24ed.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 21/08/2018

The dollar has accepted the punch from Trump and the corrective developments dictate the conditions on the main currency pairs. The Asian stock market is "enjoying" the disruption of USD domination; similarly, in the commodity market, the valuation in the American currency is adjusted.

The American president accused China and the European Union of manipulating exchange rates. He again expressed his dissatisfaction with the interest rate increases made by the Fed.

Not everywhere, however, the dollar is decreasing, because the developments of the emerging market were mixed. ZAR grew strong, but TRY remained weak after Trump's comments that relations with Turkey are not improving. USD/TRY does not move away to 6.10.

Minutes from the RBA meeting went unnoticed - the bank repeated that there are currently no reasons to change attitude. AUD ignored the publication, just as it was insensitive to political reports - Australian Prime Minister Turnbull survived the motion for a vote of confidence, which distanced the specter of the accelerated election.

On the stock market, traders can feel the positive impact of USD weakness, as well as sustained hopes for easing the US-China trade dispute. Shanghai Composite grew 1.2% today, but Japanese Nikkei is gaining only 0.3%, which is partially inhibited by USD / JPY decreases.

Let's now take a look at the S&P500 technical picture at the H4 time frame chart. The market is trading at the new all-time highs at the time of writing this article, so this would be the level of 286.80. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 286.77 and 286.12. The target for bulls is currently unknowm but it is worth to notice, that the market conditions are now overbought and there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator.

analytics5b7c3a4cd962d.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 21/08/2018

On Friday, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced a new unified exchange rate for Bolivar, which is linked to the virtual Petro currency. According to the new guidelines, one Petro would have the equivalent of $ 60, which means that the country's currency is substantially devalued by 96%.

In the face of enormous political and economic turmoil in the South American country, Maduro has recently announced various economic changes during broadcasting on public television. The socialist leader said he would raise the minimum wage by more than 3,000%, increase the corporate tax rate and raise gas prices in the next few weeks.

Maduro also provided another news related to Petro's national virtual currency. He said that one Petro would be worth $ 60 and would correspond to 360 million Venezuelan bolivars. The new rate means that one dollar will amount to 6 million bolivars, which is a rate close to what can be seen on the black market. However, at the time the decree was in force, the domestic exchange rate of the Central Bank was 248,832 dollars per dollar, which means that the new figure is roughly 96% devaluation.

While Maduro said that the new economic initiatives are part of his "formula" to help "recover the country," many economists believe that the plans will lead to a greater disaster for the country's population. Experts say that these initiatives will only reduce the already small salaries that many citizens have and indicate that tax increases and minimum wages will make many companies and businesses have to fight even more.

Increasing inflation rates have been seen in the country for some time, but in recent days they have become more and more severe. The International Monetary Fund now believes that inflation in Venezuela will reach one million percent in 2018.

Increasing economic conditions have prompted many citizens to emigrate to other nations in South America, which has caused one of the worst migration crises in recent years. After the statement by Maduro, opposition leader Henrique Capriles wrote on Twitter: "No Venezuelan deserves this tragedy or that those incapacitated people will destroy our nation".

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains inside of the horizontal consolidation between the levels of $5,846 - $6,597. Currently, the price is just above the weekly pivot at the level of $6,359 and just above the internal trend line support marked in blue. The key level to the upside is seen at $6,597 and in a case of a breakout higher, the next target for bulls is seen at $6,752. On the other hand, the intraday supports are seen at the levels of $6,179, $6,134, $6,083 and $6,034.

analytics5b7c37e06cd27.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com