EURJPY Fundamental Analysist February 7, 2017

The EUR/JPY pair had been in a longer corrective structure since the hike towards 122.80 area. For the whole January there was no dominating side in this pair where the price was corrective between 122.80 to 120.50 area. Yesterday German Factory orders were better than expected with 5.2% which was expected 0.6%. Data on Retail PMI and SENTIX Investor confidence was also better than the forecast. After all the positive events for EUR it has failed to show some advantages over JPY and had drastic fall below 122.80. Today with some positive events for EUR, such as French Trade Balance which was -3.4B, which was better than expected -4.2B and still EUR has failed to provide some bullish pressure against JPY. At the same time JPY has not have any high-impact news to prove power against EUR.

Now let us look at the technical view, after a longer corrective period since the beginning of January, the price has broken below the support area of 120.55-85 area. Currently the price is showing some bullish evidence to reach 120.55-85 as new resistance and if we see any bullish rejection from the area we will be looking forward to sell with a target towards 118.50 as the next support level.

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GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis February 7, 2017

The pair has already shown a good amount of volatility this week and heading towards 1.20 area. GBP had a great fall today against USD after the Helifax HPI report showed negative figure of -0.9% which was expected to be 0.2%. At the starting of the week, USD had advantage over GBP as the price was below the psychological level of 1.2550. The Pound is still under pressure due to the Brexit. Currently GBP has reached 1.24 area and is said to fall much lower soon before the Manufacturing production report coming up on Friday.

Now let us look at the technical view, after a price hike towards 1.27 GBP had sudden drop below the support level 1.2420. Currently, the price has broken below 1.2420 area and the medium-term market bias has changed to bearish. Now the market is retracing towards 1.2420 area with some intraday bullish price action and it is expected that after a retest towards 1.2420, if we can encounter any bullish rejection, we will be looking forward to sell with a target towards 1.20 level as the next support level.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 07, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair is staying below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the upside bias. In addition, the bullish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified, which is positive. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

On Monday, US stocks edged lower with light trading volumes while investors awaited details on the economy-boosting policies designed by President Donald Trump's Administration. US government bonds and precious metals rose on safe-haven bids generated by political unease in the US and election uncertainty in Europe. The benchmark 10-year yield fell to 2.413% from 2.496% Friday.

As long as 0.9935 holds as resistance, look for a further upside to 1.0025 and even 1.0050 in extension.

Resistance levels: 1.0025, 1.0050, and 1.0075

Support levels: 0.99, 0.9885, and 0.9860

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feburary 07, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. The technical picture of the pair is bullish above a bullish trendline which confirms a positive view. The upward momentum is further reinforced by its descending 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

As long as the level of 111.55 works as resistance, look for a further upside towards 112.80 and even 113.25 in extension.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 112.80 and the second one is at 113.25. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 111.15 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 110.80. The pivot point is at 111.55.

Resistance levels: 112.80, 113.25, and 113.60. Support levels: 111.15, 110.85, and 110.30.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Feburary 07, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in lower range as the key resistance is at 0.7345. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages and is holding on the upside. In addition, the 20-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. Nevertheless, 0.7345 represents a significant key resistance level, which should limit the upside potential. As long as this key level is not broken, expect a return to its next support at 0.7260. A break below this level would call for a further downside to 0.7240.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7260. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7240. The pivot point stands at 0.7345. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7375 and the second one at 0.7390.

Resistance levels: 0.7375, 0.7390, and 0.7435

Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7240, and 0.7200

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 07, 2017

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GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair remains under pressure below its horizontal resistance at 140.05 and is expected to post further consolidation. Currently the 20-period moving average stays below the 50-period moving average, and the Bollinger bands were narrowing, which suggests a low volatility and possible breakout in the coming sessions. Meanwhile the relative strength index is around its neutrality area at 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as the key resistance at 140.05 is not broken above, expect further drop to 138 at first.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 138.00. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 137.05. The pivot point stands at 140.05. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 140.80 and the second one at 141.45.

Resistance levels: 140.80, 141.45, 142.00

Support levels: 138.00,137.05, 136.15

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 07, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.4534. According to the 5M time frame, I found unconfirmed hidden bearish divergence on moving average oscillator which is a sign of potential weakness. The trend is still downward. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. I found upward trend channel and my advice is to wait for potential breakout of rising channel to confirm re-continuation of the trend. I found strong resitance at the price of 1.4655-1.4665.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4735

R2: 1.4760

R3: 1.4795

Support levels:

S1: 1.4665

S2: 1.4642

S3: 1.4605

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold analysis for February 07, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,235.70. According to the 30M time frame, I found a hidden unconfirmed bearish divergence in the background and broken upward trendline, which is a sign of potential weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The price also broke previous support at the level of $1,231.40. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential downward targets. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of $1,224.50 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,217.70.

Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels :

R1: 1,234.45

R2: 1,238.40

R3: 1,244.85

Support levels:

S1: 1,221.50

S2: 1,217.50

S3: 1,211.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 7, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair did not do much on February 6, 2017. The market is bullish (which is not something strong), and it is supposed to go further upwards, provided that the support line at 1.0600 is not breached to the downside, which would require a serious selling pressure anyway.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair went downwards last week, but not significantly. The price is below the resistance levels at 1.0000 and 0.9950, now moving towards the support level at 0.9900, which is one of the targets for this week. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further bearish movement is expected.

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GBP/USD: This current trading instrument has continued the weakness it started last week, and that has led to a bearish signal in the short term. Since the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this month, it is likely that the price may start a massive plunge this week or the next one, or even later. The bullish attempts would be transitory.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair also went further downwards yesterday, just to put more emphasis on the bearish movement that was started last month and continued last week. The bias on the market remains bearish, and the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00 would soon be tested. On the other hand, there is also a big possibility that the JPY pairs may rally later this week.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair went further downwards on Monday, resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, as the price continued the bearish movement it started last week. The demand zone at 120.00 has already been tested, and it is more likely that it would go below that demand zone as it moves further downwards.

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Global macro overview for 07/02/2017

Global macro overview for 07/02/2017:

An unexpected drop in Industrial Production in Germany to the level of -3.0% m/m (-0.7% y/y) had surprised the market participants this morning. This is the biggest drop since 2009 and it is mainly attributed to the seasonal factors, like cold winter weather and the Christmas season (likely the main reasons for the fall). However, the outlook appears brighter given that data released Monday showed factory orders climbing 5.2 percent in December thanks to demand at home and from elsewhere in the Eurozone — a far better performance than anticipated. In conclusion, no reason to start the panic over the Eurozone powerhouse poor performance as the figures will likely go up again in the spring.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bears have managed to break out below the golden trendline support and now the market is trading right at the intraday support at the level of 1.0658. If bearish pressure does not decrease, then the next support is seen at the level of 1.0619 and 1.0578.

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Global macro overview for 07/02/2017

Global macro overview for 07/02/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia had left the key interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.5%. In the RBA rate statement, the officials justified the decision based on the economic forecast for 2017. According to RBA, the economy is expected to expand at an annualized pace of 3% over the next several years, while inflation is likely to rise above the Central bank's 2% inflationary target already this year. The inflation in the last quarter rose only 1.5%, so it is still well below the RBA target of 2.0% and it still does not look it is getting any near this level for now. The RBA analyst team indicates that they should follow the currently popular path of not easing the monetary policy for now, just as many other central banks do. Some of the analysis suggested that RBA should keep the interest rates at the current level to 2018 or even longer. In conclusion, no surprise from RBA this month and very dovish rate statement mainly due to slow economic growth and no inflationary pressures.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture after the news was released. The market was capped at the level of 0.7693 and now reversed towards the next important support at the level of 0.7609. If this level is violated, then the next support is seen at the level of 0.7523. This last level is the key near -term technical support level for the bulls.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 7, 2017

General overview for 07/02/2017:

The overbalance level at 1.3101 had been easily broken and now the price is going vertically upward, which is a typical behavior for wave three. The next target for the bulls is at 61%Fibo at the level of 1.3227 and in a case of an extension, there is still next resistance at the level of 1.3297. This scenario is invalidated only when the top of the wave -i- at the level of 1.3101 is clearly violated.

Support/Resistance:

1.2925 - WS1

1.2967 - Technical Support

1.3050 - Weekly Pivot

1.3125 - WR1

1.3136 - Intraday Support

1.3227 - 61%Fibo

1.3246 - WR2

1.3297 - 78%Fibo

Trading recommendations:

All buy order from yesterday should move TP to the level of 1.3227 or to the level of 1.3297.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 7, 2017

General overview for 07/02/2017:

The corrective cycle decreased to 127% Fibo extension at the level of 119.57 and the move down looks exhausted now. The wave c (green) of the wave Z (brown) might be now completed, so the market can rebound towards the intraday resistance at the level of 120.20. If this level is clearly violated, then the next important resistance is at the level of 121.01, which is the old wave a (green) bottom. Please notice that according to the current Elliott wave count, the wave progression to the downside is only a counter trend correction in the overall structure and one more move to the upside is needed to complete the cycle.

Support/Resistance:

123.84. - WR2

123.30 - Wave XX Top

122.41 - WR1

121.70 - Weekly Pivot

121.01 - Technical Resistance

120.52 - Technical Support

120.20 - Intraday Resistance

119.57 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Sell orders from yesterday had been closed with profit at the level of 120.52. Currently, day traders should consider buying the dips as the market goes down, because there are two reasons that support this trade: the corrective cycle in wave (4) is about to complete and one more wave to the upside is needed to complete the overall impulsive structure to the upside.

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Technical analysis of USDX for February 7, 2017

The Dollar index is showing reversal signs to the upside by breaking above and out of the downward sloping wedge. It is important to see if the break out is real or fake. My view that we are near completion of wave 4 remains and I expect a strong upward reversal in the index to new highs.

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Red lines - downward sloping wedge

The price is breaking out of the downward sloping wedge. This is a bullish sign. The price is still below the Ichimoku cloud but very close to breaking above it. Oscillators have provided signals of diverging lows and this has been pointing that the trend would soon reverse. Maybe that time has come.

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Green line - long-term trendline support

On a weekly basis, the Dollar index has reached the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) which was our target. The price shows reversal signs. My view so far was that this decline from 103.70 is wave 4 and we should start an upward move as wave 5 towards 105. It is important to see how this weekly candle closes and also how today's candle closes to be more sure regarding the possibility of one more new lower low.

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Technical analysis of gold for February 7, 2017

Gold price continues higher above $1,230 as we expected. A small pullback is justified but overall trend remains bullish targeting around $1,250 at first and the next is at $1,300-$1,320. Gold has made a very important low at $1,122 and is now in a new uptrend that is expected to push the prices above $1,400 over the coming months.

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Blue line - short-term trend line support

Gold price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud making higher highs and higher lows. Oscillators are overbought and turning lower. This is just a warning for Gold bulls. This is no sell signal. Short-term support is at $1,220 and the next is at $1,200. Resistance is at $1,235 and the next one is at $1,250.

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The weekly oscillators are pointing higher as they have just reversed upwards from the oversold levels. This new uptrend is expected to last for a few months and to bring the price above $1,400. Gold price has entered the weekly Ichimoku cloud. This implies that once we break above the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) we should then move towards the upper cloud boundary.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 07, 2017

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Overview:

  • The price of USD/CHF pair is moving between the levels of 0.9960 and 0.9860. The USD/CHF pair continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9960. Since yesterday, the pair has dropped from the level of 0.9960 to the bottom around the spot of 0.9890. In consequence, the USD/CHF pair broke support at the level 0.9960, which turned into strong resistance at the level of 0.9960. In the H1 time frame, the level of 0.9960 is expected to act as the major resistance today. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish market. The price is still below the moving average (100). From this point, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from the resistance levels of 0.9960 and 0.9922 towards the target level of 0.9860. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9860, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below the level of 0.9860 so as to reach the second target at 0.9830. Moreover, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the level of 0.9830, the market will decline further to 0.9800.

Forecast:

  • The price spot of 0.9990-0.9960 remains a significant resistance zone. So, a possibility that the USD/CHF pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9990-0.9960. Sell below 0.9990-0.9960 with the first targets of 0.9890, 0.9860 and 0.9800. However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 1.0021.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 07, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7299. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 0.7299 to the top around 0.7375. The current price is seen at 0.7330. So, today the support is seen at 0.7299 (this level of 0.7299 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). On the other hand, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7352 followed by 0.7375, while minor support is found at 0.7299. Also, the level of 0.7299 represents a daily pivot point for that it is acting as minor support at the moment. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the new support line of 0.7299 towards the first resistance level at 0.7352 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.7352, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7352 so as to reach the next objective of 0.7375.

Trading recommendations:

  • Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.7299 providing a clear signal to buy at this spot 0.7300 with a target seen at 0.7352. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.7352, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7375.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Feb 07, 2017

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When the European market opens, such economic data will be released as French Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Industrial Production m/m.The US will release such economic data as Consumer Credit m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, and Trade Balance. Thus, amid the reports EUR/USD will move in a low- to medium-volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0781.

Strong Resistance:1.0774.

Original Resistance: 1.0764.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0754.

Target Inner Area: 1.0729.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0704.

Original Support: 1.0694.

Strong Support: 1.0684.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0677.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feb 07, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and the US will release such economic data as Consumer Credit m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, and Trade Balance. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low- to medium-volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.37.

Resistance. 2: 112.15.

Resistance. 1: 111.93.

Support. 1: 111.67.

Support. 2: 111.42.

Support. 3: 111.23.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 7, 2017

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The USD/CAD pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

A bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recent established top).

The price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support for the recent bearish pullback.

That is why, the recent bearish pullback toward 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) offered a valid BUY entry as expected in previous articles.

This week, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance bullish advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3550. Otherwise, the USD/CAD pair remains trapped within the current consolidation range (1.2970-1.3300).

On the other hand, DAILY closure below 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) will confirm a double top pattern with projected bearish targets at 1.2860, 1.2730, and 1.2600.

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GBP/USD prepares to turn bullish

We prepare to turn bullish on GBP/USD above major support at 1.2433 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap support) for a bounce up to 1.2563 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is bouncing nicely above strong support at 4%.

Buy above 1.2433. Set stop loss at 1.2330 and take profit at 1.2563.

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EUR/USD profit target is reached, prepare to turn bearish again

The price has reached our profit target perfectly from previously. We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.0800 (major horizontal resistance, Fibonacci projection) for a drop to 1.0708 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) has made a bearish exit previously and still remains in a bearish configuration.

Sell below 1.0800. Stop loss is at 1.0880. Take profit is at 1.0708.

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AUD/JPY is testing resistance, remain bearish

We remain bearish below 86.52 resistance (Fibonacci projection, Fibonacci retracement) for a drop to 85.63 first (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing a nice reaction off our 94% resistance level.

Sell below 86.52. Stop loss is at 86.75. Take profit is at 85.63.

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