GBP / USD: plan for the European session on October 25. The pressure on the pound remains due to Brexit

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

It is best to return to long positions in the pound by updating the next monthly lows. The formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.12872, with the confirmation of divergence on the MACD indicator, will be the first signal to buy GBP / USD. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions after updating the areas of 1.2831 and 1.2790. The task of buyers for the first half of the day will be the return and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.2911, which will lead to an increase in the pair to the upper boundary of the downward channel and to an update of the maximum of 1.2947, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the first resistance area of 1.2911 will be a signal to open short positions in the pound in order to repeat the test and breakdown support of 1.2872, which will lead to a new downward wave with the update of the minimums of 1.2831 and 1.2790, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.2911 in the first half of the day, you can count on short positions after updating the larger resistance at 1.2947, where the upper limit of the downward price channel is also located.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2915 limits the upward potential, and the breakdown of the lower border around 1.2872 will be a direct signal to sell the pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on October 25 New fall of European currency

4h

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On a 4-hour chart, quotes of the EUR / USD currency pair were consolidated below the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1424. Thus, the process of falling off the pair can be continued on October 25 in the direction of the next correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1303. The ripening divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the euro currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1553. As a result, the drop in quotations continues on the hourly chart in the direction of the next correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Reversing quotations from the Fibo level of 127.2% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0%. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correctional level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes above the correctional level of 1.1424.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold now with a target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4%, as the pair closed below the correction level of 1.1424.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for October 25th. The pound continues to fall into the abyss

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the GBP / USD currency pair resumed the process of falling towards the correctional level of 0.0% - 1.2662. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 0.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and a slight increase in the direction of the 23.6% correction level of 1.3067. For a more detailed picture, go to the hourly chart.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair consolidated below the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.2924 and continues the process of falling, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator. Thus, the fall of the pair can be continued on October 25 in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2833. There are no emerging divergences today. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 127.2% will make it possible to expect a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0%.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from October 4, 2018, and October 12, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2924 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 127.2% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.2833 (hourly chart).

The currency pair GBP / USD can be sold now with a target of 1.2833 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0%, as the pair completed closing below the Fibo level of 1.2924 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wednesday Results: PM May Remains in Power and Bank of Canada Tightens Policy

Wednesday turned out to be a busy trading day and decisive in many aspects. In particular, the political fate of British Prime Minister Theresa May was decided yesterday, as well as the prospect of the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada. In both cases, the intrigue remained, and hardly any of the experts could speak with complete confidence about the final result. However, first things first.

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The meeting of the "Committee of 1922", a group of British conservative deputies, was held yesterday in London. The current prime minister. They are also called "backbenchers" Looking ahead, I can say that I've been resignation indefinitely. She retained power, however, it's not a convincing power. And yet the worst-case scenario for her was not realized: the committee has not yet begun to pass a vote of no confidence in the premiere, which will allow May to continue to follow a given course.

The meeting of the participants has been closed. So, according to the "soft" Brexit is now very low, despite the 95 percent agreement on the deal. The remaining inconsistent interest rates for the second year. It is not possible to bring together a single denominator. It has been a lot more than a real prospect. Despite such pessimistic comments, the pound stopped its decline this morning and was able to return to the 29th figure together with the dollar.

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The reason is obvious. If the chance for a deal remains while under Theresa May's "leadership,", then in case of her resignation, the likelihood of a tough Brexit would increase almost to one hundred percent. In addition, political confusion on the eve of such an important (even historical) event would have exerted a strong pressure on the pound, which could return to two-year lows, that is, to the base of 20 figures. This did not happen, and the British currency remained under the "usual" background pressure in anticipation of the next news on Brexit.

But the Canadian currency yesterday received support from the Bank of Canada. The regulator ignored the weak data on inflation (which was published last Friday) and still raised the interest rate by 25 basis points for the third time this year and the fifth time during this increasing cycle. Moreover, Stephen Poloz retained the "hawkish" attitude and hinted at further tightening of monetary policy. According to him, there is no longer any need to stimulate the Canadian economy. By and large, monetary policy will now have a restraining character. The Canadian regulator said that economic growth has reached "trend values", therefore the task of the Central Bank is to prevent its "overheating".

This means that at the beginning of next year (presumably in the spring), the interest rate in Canada can be raised again to two percent. It is still difficult to talk about future prospects, especially since the members of the regulator also do not see a clear follow-up algorithm. Like the Fed, the Bank of Canada is trying to figure out at which is the neutral interest rate level, when monetary policy no longer holds back economic growth, but at the same time saving it from overheating.

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The results of yesterday's meeting inspired bears of the USD/CAD pair and it sank to the middle of the 29th figure. True, by the end of the trading day, the situation somewhat leveled off, but the bearish mood of the looney still remained. The Canadian dollar failed to gain a foothold in the 29th figure, mainly due to the decline in the oil market. The cost of a barrel of Brent crude oil has already reached $76, putting pressure on commodity currencies.

"Black gold" is getting cheaper for many reasons. Firstly, it was recorded for the fifth week in one row In the case of assets and raw materials. There are more global reasons - in particular , Saudi Arabia yesterday confirmed its intention to increase oil production by 1-2 million barrels per day in order to "balance the market" in order to prevent fuel shortages.

Thus, yesterday was decisive for the pound and the Canadian. The British currency has not lost its chance for its recovery, while the Canadian dollar was able not only to gain a foothold in the 29th figure but also to sink to its base.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro has few prospects for strong growth.

Today, the focus of the market is the final ECB monetary policy decision. It is expected that the European regulator will not change its monetary course.

By its next meeting, the European Bank came up with a long-standing problem and the roots of which are growing from the crisis of 2008-09. Recent events in Italy related to its growing debt problems indicate that the crisis in the eurozone has not disappeared. They were camouflaged by incentives and credit programs of the country, and nothing more. A similar problem is also noted in Greece. We have previously indicated this, and although it is also being tried to be neutralized by lending, it implicitly exists and can also reappear at any time.

So far, the eurocurrency is generally kept in the range relative to the US dollar, but it seems to us that there is a too obvious discrepancy in monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed. We recall that the former is only going to stop stimulating the economies of the region, and the latter is already actively pursuing the cost tightening borrowing and reducing your balance will not be in favor of the single currency. And although it is more preferable for investors to invest in an asset that has promising growth, and the euro is now perceived by a number of market players as such, their hopes may fall. And here, the debt problem of Italy and, in general, the very cautious position of the European regulator can play its role.

We believe that following the meeting of the bank its monetary course will not be changed, however, in its resolution, as well as the content of the speech of the ECB President M. Draghi may contain optimistic notes. But, in our opinion, both Draghi and the bank as a whole may be concerned not only with the debt problems of some eurozone members, but with the prospects for the global economy, which are clearly deteriorating against the backdrop of trade wars and escalating geopolitical confrontation between Russia, China on the one hand, and United States and the consolidated West, on the other. Given this, we believe that the euro is unlikely to receive significant support from the meeting. Most likely, its further local decline paired with the dollar will continue after a slight upward rollback in the wake of volatility.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR / USD currency pair is trading above the level of 1.1380, trying to consolidate above the level of 1.1400. The pair may, following the meeting and press conference of M. Draghi, recover to 1.1450. Despite this, we believe that it should be sold on the rise from this mark or after its decrease below the level of 1.1380 with the local goal of 1.1300.

The GBP / USD currency pair is trading above the level of 1.2875. It may also pull up following the eurodollar up, but we consider it necessary to sell it from 1.2930 or after its decline below 1.2875 with the target of 1.2800.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on October 25. The results of the ECB meeting may derail the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

All attention to the ECB decision on interest rates and a press conference at which a change in the course of the credit policy can be announced. It is best to return to purchases in the first half of the day when a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1382 or to rebound from a minimum of 1.1351. The main task of the buyers will be to consolidate above the resistance of 1.1429, where the 50-day average is located, which will lead to a larger correctional growth in the maximum area of 1.1474, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers need to form a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1429, which will be a signal to open short positions in the euro in order to update yesterday's lows in the support area of 1.1382. The breakthrough of this range will increase the pressure on the euro, which will lead to a test of levels of 1.1351 and 1.1299, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, such a variant of events can occur only under a negative scenario from the ECB. In the case of growth above the resistance level of 1.1429 in the first half of the day, short positions can be returned to the rebound from the level of 1.1474.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 1.1418 area limits the upward potential, and the breakdown of the lower border in the 1.1382 area will be a direct signal to sell the euro.

analytics5bd15e2e8e138.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for October 25, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite volatile recently which led to certain corrections below $6,500 area. The price sank lower below $6,500 quite impulsively recently. The price is currently climbing higher while the dynamic level 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line are acting as support. The price is yet to break above Kumo Cloud and $6,500 area which is expected to push the price impulsively higher towards $7,500 and later towards $10,000 area in the future. As the price remains above $6,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 7,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on October 25

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we have expanded the potential for a downward cycle from October 16 to the level of 1.1299. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, there is a high probability of an upward correction from the range of 1.2842 - 1.2802. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we have clarified the key objectives for the rising medium-term structure. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the downward structure from October 22 and the level of 112.46 is the key support. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we are following the downward trend from October 22 and we expect further downward movement after the breakdown of 127.17. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we are following the development of the downward cycle of October 16 and the potential for this cycle is at the level of 142.24.

Forecast for October 25:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1472, 1.1433, 1.1380, 1.1346, and 1.1299. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of October 16. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1380. In this case, the target is 1.1346 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1299, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1410 - 1.1433 and the breakdown of the latter will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the target is 1.1472 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1410 Take profit: 1.1430

Buy 1.1435 Take profit: 1.1470

Sell: 1.1379 Take profit: 1.1348

Sell: 1.1344 Take profit: 1.1305

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3044, 1.3004, 1.2945, 1.2909, 1.2842, 1.2802 and 1.2719. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of October 12. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2842 - 1.2802, hence a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 1.2802 will lead to the movement to the potential target of 1.2719 and we expect a rollback to the correction from this level.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.2909 - 1.2945 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3004 and the range of 1.3004 - 1.3044 is the key support for the downward structure. We expect clearance of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2910 Take profit: 1.2945

Buy: 1.2947 Take profit: 1.3004

Sell: 1.2842 Take profit: 1.2802

Sell: 1.2800 Take profit: 1.2725

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0066, 1.0038, 0.9998, 0.9982, 0.9955, 0.9936, 0.9914 and 0.9888. Here, we clarified the objectives for the ascending structure of October 15. The uptrend development is expected after the price passes the range of 0.9982 - 0.9998. In this case, the target is 1.0038. For now, the potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0066, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9955 - 0.9936 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.9914 and this level is the key support for the top. The breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the goal is 0.9888.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0000 Take profit: 1.0036

Buy: 1.0040 Take profit: 1.0066

Sell: 0.9955 Take profit: 0.9938

Sell: 0.9934 Take profit: 0.9916

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 112.46, 112.24, 112.09, 111.71, 111.38, 111.14 and 110.84. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 22. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 111.71. In this case, the target is 111.38 and in the range of 111.38 - 111.14 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 110.84, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term ascending is possible in the range of 112.09 - 112.24 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged movement. Here, the goal is 112.46 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of October 22.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.10 Take profit: 112.24

Buy: 112.26 Take profit: 112.46

Sell: 111.70 Take profit: 111.45

Sell: 111.36 Take profit: 111.16

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3250, 1.3199, 1.3161, 1.3127, 1.3085, 1.3060, 1.2965 and 1.2913. Here, the price is close to cancellation of the ascending structure of October 16, for which a breakdown of 1.2965 is necessary. In this case, the first potential target is 1.2913. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3060 - 1.3085. In this case, the first target is 1.3137 and in the range of 1.3161 - 1.3199 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3250, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 16, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3085 Take profit: 1.3135

Buy: 1.3163 Take profit: 1.3197

Sell: 1.2965 Take profit: 1.2915

Sell: Take profit:

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7130, 0.7105, 0.7088, 0.7059, 0.7034, 0.7017 and 0.6992. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of October 17. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7059. In this case, the goal is 0.7034 and in the range of 0.7034 - 0.7017 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.6992, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 0.7088 - 0.7105 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7130 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7088 Take profit: 0.7105

Buy: 0.7107 Take profit: 0.7130

Sell: 0.7056 Take profit: 0.7034

Sell: 0.7016 Take profit: 0.6992

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 128.74, 128.44, 128.08, 127.84, 127.40, 127.17, 126.82 and 126.43. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of October 22. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 127.40 - 127.17. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 126.82 and from this level, there is a high probability of recoil upwards. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.43, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 127.84 - 128.08 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 128.44 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of October 22. Its breakdown will have to form an upward structure. In this case, the goal is 128.74

The main trend is the downward structure of October 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.84 Take profit: 128.06

Buy: 128.15 Take profit: 128.44

Sell: 127.40 Take profit: 127.20

Sell: 127.15 Take profit: 126.84

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 146.39, 146.03, 145.28, 144.76, 143.84, 143.19 and 142.24. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 16. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 143.84 - 143.19 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the potential target of 142.24, upon reaching this level we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 144.76 - 145.28 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 146.03 and the range of 146.03 - 146.39 is the key support for the downward structure. We are waiting for the initial conditions for the top to reach it.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.76 Take profit: 145.26

Buy: 145.32 Take profit: 146.03

Sell: 143.84 Take profit: 143.22

Sell: 143.16 Take profit: 142.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD h4. Variants of the development of the movement 24.10_31.10.2018. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minute (h4)

Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar

Previous Review from 10/22/2018 12:15 UTC + 3.

____________________

The direction of breaking through the borders of the equilibrium zone (1.2840 <-> 1.2900 <-> 1.2950). The Fork operational Minuette scale will determine the trend for the future development of the GBP / USD currency instrument in the between 24th and 31st of October 2018.

Marking of options within the zone of equilibrium Fork operational Minuette scale presented on animated graphics.

____________________

Development perspective of the upward movement (buy)

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2950 (upper limit of the ISL 38.2 zone of the balance of the pitchfork of the Minuette operating scale) -> development of the upward movement of GBP / USD to the channel boundaries 1/2 Median Line of the pitchfork of the operating scales -> Minute ( 1.2990 <-> 1.3060 <-> 1.3135 ) and Minuette ( 1.3015 <-> 1.3060 <-> 1.3100 ).

Details are shown in animated graphics.

____________________

Development perspective of the downward movement (sell)

The breakdown of the support level 1.2840 (lower limit ISL 61.8 of the balance zone of the operational forks Minuette scale ) -> continuation of the development of the GBP/USD downward movement to the final Shiff Line Minute ( 1.2770 ) and the limits of the balance zone ( 1.2755 <-> 1.2645 <-> 1.2540 ) Pitchfork operational scale Minute. Details look at the animated graphics.

____________________

The review was compiled without regard to the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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ZUP and Andrews Pitchfork (terms, concepts, parameters).

Materials for the study of analysis ZUP & APL`s.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for October 25, 2018

USD/CHF has been quite impressive with the recent bullish pressure which lead the price towards 0.9980-1.0050 resistance area. CHF has been struggling to gain momentum over USD despite the recent mixed economic results from the US published recently.

USD has weakened recently on the back of economic reports, but it managed to gain momentum over CHF due to comparatively worse economic results. This week CHF did not have any impactful economic reports but next week the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations, SECO Consumer Climate and Retail Sales report are going to be published which might lead to certain gains. Today the US Core Durable Goods Orders report was published with a slight increase to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.0% but failed to meet the expected value of 0.5%. The Durable Goods Orders decreased to 0.8% from the previous value of 4.4% which was expected to decrease to -1.3% and the Goods Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to -76.0B from the previous figure of -75.5B which was expected to be at -74.9B. Moreover, the Unemployment Claims increased to 215k from the previous figure of 210k which was expected to be at 214k.

As of the current scenario, USD is expected to be stronger in the wake of the mixed economic reports while CHF being silent with no economic news. Next week volatility may increase in the market, but if CHF performs better than expected, only then certain bearish pressure may be observed in this pair or else USD may continue to dominate further in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.9980 area with a Bearish Divergence formation alongside. Though the price has been quite bullish recently, certain corrections are also observed along the way. As the price remains below 1.0050 area with a daily close, there are certain chances of the price pushing lower towards 0.9850 support area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.9700, 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 0.9980, 1.0050

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for 10/25/2018

The dollar continues to grow actively, and many factors contributed to this yesterday. Both macroeconomic statistics and political events clearly favored the dollar. Let's start with European statistics which encouraged the market participants at first as preliminary data on business activity indexes in France showed a decline in the production index from 52.5 to 51.2, but the service sector index grew from 54.8 to 55.6. Consequently, it led to an increase in the composite index from 54.0 to 54.3.

We expected a decline in all indices, so the data were clearly better than forecasts. However,0 almost immediately came the similar data for Germany, which showed a deep decline in all indices. Thus, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector decreased from 53.7 to 52.3, and in the service sector from 55.9 to 53.6. As a result, the composite index of business activity fell from 55.0 to 52.7. They waited for a decline, but not so much. After such sad data from the largest eurozone economy, it was not worth waiting for something positive on a European scale. This is what happened. The business activity index in the service sector decreased from 54.7 to 53.3, and production from 53.2 to 52.1, which gave a decrease in the composite index of business activity from 54.1 to 52.7. The results were significantly worse than forecasts.

In addition to this sad picture, the growth rate of consumer lending did not grow but remained unchanged. In turn, the United States waited for the growth of the indices, and preliminary data showed just that wherein only growth was greater than predicted. The business activity index in the service sector increased from 53.5 to 54.7, and the production index from 55.6 to 55.9. As a result, the composite index of business activity increased from 53.9 to 54.8.

But all this is not enough for such a rapid and prolonged strengthening of the dollar. He was assisted by European disputes over the size of the Italian budget deficit, since Brussels insists that Italy change the budget plan in order to reduce the deficit from 2.4% to 2.0% of GDP. The Italian government cannot take this step. So investors rightly fear that Italy's credit rating could go down below the investment grade. The dispute between Rome and Brussels only highlights the problem of public debt in Europe.

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The main event for today and of the whole week is the meeting of the board of the European Central Bank on monetary policy. It is obvious that today no decisions will be taken on changing the parameters of monetary policy today. However, in the light of recent events, especially with regard to the government debt of the eurozone countries, no one believes that Mario Draghi will decide to keep his promise and curtail the quantitative easing program, which is scheduled for the end of the year. The current situation in the European economy is so difficult and uncertain that the ECB has no choice but to continue printing money again. Yet, do not think that the dollar will also grow uncontrollably. After all, investors have already laid in the course of the extension of the quantitative easing program of the ECB, and in the United States itself, durable goods orders are expected to decline by 0.9%. The total number of applications for unemployment benefits should increase by 17 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications may increase by 4 thousand and repeat once again by another 13 thousand.

The EUR/USD pair continues to show active descending interest, reaching a value of 1.1378. Now there is a justified rollback, but, most likely, the downward movement will resume in the late afternoon.

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The GBP/USD pair continues to slide down, reaching a periodic level of 1.2870. After which, a pullback was observed on overheating. A temporary fluctuation of 1.2870 / 1.2930 can be assumed, where in case of price fixing lower than 1.2870, it will open the way to the main level of 1.2770.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for October 25, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite volatile with the recent price action due to the recent rate hike in Canada. Higher volatility failed to create definite momentum for the pair. Despite an increase in the interest rates last week, CAD failed to assert its strength over USD. As a result, the pair is expected to trade with higher volatility and indecision in the coming days.

Recently the Bank of Canada took a decision to raise the Overnight Rate to 1.75% as expected from the previous value of 1.50% along with BOC Rate Statement and a policy update. This decision is likely to speed up a pace of future rate hikes without any need of stimulus. To achieve the inflation target, the Governing Council is currently quite optimistic about the economic conditions in Canada but immediate CAD gains may be a bit muted as the rate hike cycle is expected to be extended till 2019. That is why the market sentiment may show a slower response to the currency gains.

On the USD side, amid mixed economic reports the greenback is struggling to sustain its gains over CAD. Besides, the recent rate hike in Canada was a complete blow for USD. In the context of the trade war between the US and China, the trade and commerce section are currently being re-assessed which had an impact on economic indicators recently. Today US Core Durable Goods Orders report was published with a slight increase to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.0% but failed to meet the expected value of 0.5%, Durable Goods Orders decreased to 0.8% from the previous value of 4.4% which was expected to decrease to -1.3%, and Goods Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to -76.0B from the previous figure of -75.5B which was expected to be at -74.9B. Moreover, Unemployment Claims increased to 215k from the previous figure of 210k which was expected to be at 214k.

Meanwhile, USD has been quite indecisive and mixed amid the economic reports published today, whereas CAD is quite solid fundamentally. Though certain indecision about USD still exists, a delayed response of CAD to the recent fundamentals will lead to certain USD gains which may persist for a few days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been recently rejected off the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well as from the support area between 1.2950-1.3050. The price is currently residing above 1.3050 after a strong bearish rejection which is expected to lead to certain bullish pressure with a target towards the resistance area of 1.3300 in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.2950 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2950, 1.3050

RESISTANCE: 1.3300, 1.3350

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 25, 2018

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On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On October 4, the price level of 1.2900-1.2940 (the backside of the broken uptrend) initiated another bullish movement above 1.3010 and 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) which led to recent bullish movement towards 1.3200 where the current bearish movement towards 1.2900 was initiated.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) enhanced further bearish decline towards 1.2900 where bullish recovery should be anticipated again.

As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3010 (50% Fibo level) and 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) is needed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum initially towards 1.3200 and 1.3280.

Otherwise, the next bearish destination is located around 1.2800 if enough bearish momentum is demonstrated.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 25, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, evident bearish momentum was being demonstrated on the daily chart.

On October 10, recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.

However, Temporary bullish recovery around 1.1430 pushed the EUR/USD pair above 1.1520 until bearish breakdown of 1.1520 occurred again on October 17.

Hence, a descending high was established around 1.1600 enhancing the bearish side of the market.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should pursue trading below the price level of 1.1400.

Next demand level would be located around 1.1275 and possibly 1.1100 if sufficient bearish pressure is maintained.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 25, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC is still trading inside of the trading range between the price of $6.456 (resistance) and the price of $6.319 (support). I also found that buying cliamx in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the support to confirm further downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of $6.164 and at the price of $6.035.

Support/Resistance

$6.456 – Intraday resistance

$6.319– Intraday support

$6.164 – Objective target 1

$6.035 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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AUD/USD analysis for October 25, 2018

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Recently, the AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 0.7080. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I have found a potential double bottom pattern in progress, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The key support at the price of 0.7055 held successfully, which also indicates strength. I have also found the hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of strength. Watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 0.7100 and at the price of 0.7123.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 25, 2018

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Overview:

Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 0.6542 towards 0.6563. Now, the price is set at 0.6520. On the H1 chart, the resistance of USD/CHF pair is seen at the level of 0.6542 and 0.6574.

It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.6542 and 0.6478 in coming hours.

Moreover, the price spot of 0.6542 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6542, sell below 0.6542 with the first target at 0.6503 in order to test yesterday's bottom.

Additionally, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6503, the market will decline further to 0.6478 in order to test the weekly support 2. Also, it should be noticed that support 3 is seen at the level of 0.6439 which coincides the double bottom.

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EUR/USD analysis for October 25, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1413. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a bullish breakout of a 12-hour balance in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control and that selling looks risky. I also found a piercing candle pattern in the background, which is another sign of the strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1437 and at the price of 1.1475.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for October 25, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.7107

The AUD/USD pair faced resistance at the level of 0.7146, while minor resistance is seen at 0.7107. Support is found at the levels of 0.7043 and 0.6980. Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 0.7107. Equally important, the AUD/USD pair is still moving around the key level at 0.7107, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. The AUD/USD pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.7043. The pair rose from the level of 0.7043 (this level of 0.7043 coincides with the double bottom) to the top around 0.7146. In consequence, the AUD/USD pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 0.7146. The level of 0.7043 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the AUD/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.7043 towards the target level of 0.7146. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.7146, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.7146 in order to reach the second target at 0.7179. However, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.7043, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 25, 2018

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A break above 1.7557 will be a good first step to confirm the hidden divergence, while a break above resistance at 1.7554 should do the trick and confirm the impulsive rally towards 1.8345.

R3: 1.7625

R2: 1.7598

R1: 1.7557

Pivot: 1.7515

S1: 1.7495

S2: 1.7475

S1: 1.7428

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7495 with our stop placed at 1.7345. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above resistance at 1.7557 and use the same stop at 1.7345.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Oct 25, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Main Refinancing Rate, German Ifo Business Climate, Spanish Unemployment Rate, and German GfK Consumer Climate. The US will provide quite a lot of economic data too such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1457

Strong Resistance:1.1450

Original Resistance: 1.1439

Inner Sell Area: 1.1428

Target Inner Area: 1.1400

Inner Buy Area: 1.1372

Original Support: 1.1361

Strong Support: 1.1350

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1343

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Oct 25, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y. The US will release quite a lot of economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance 3: 112.55

Resistance 2: 112.34

Resistance 1: 112.12

Support 1: 111.85

Support 2: 111.63

Support 3: 111.41

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of Gold for October 25, 2018

Gold has pulled back yesterday towards the break out area and back tested it successfully as prices bounced from the break out area and are now close to their recent highs. As we said yesterday we remain bullish as long as the price is above $1,220.

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Blue rectangle - support

Red line - target

The Gold price bounced off short-term support and is now trying to make higher highs. The Gold price has reached our first target of $1,220 and our second target of $1,240. The Gold price has the potential to make an equal leg higher towards $1,260-70. This is our third target. Bulls remain in control of the trend as long as the price is above $1,220. Breaking below $1,220 will make it bearish.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 25, 2018

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The break below important support at 127.86 tells us that the decline in wave (E) can't be complete with the test of 124.62 and more downside should be expected.

Both the rally from 124.62 to 131.99 and the following rally from 124.90 to 133.13 have been three-wave moves indicating that they are corrective by nature and more downside pressure is needed before wave (E) can complete.

The decline from the peak of wave (D) at 137.50 to 124.62 is also clearly in three waves, so a more complex double zig-zag is expected to develop after the rally from 124.62 has proven itself to be corrective in nature. If the second zig-zag becomes of the same length as the first from 137.50 to 124.62, then a decline to 120.19 should be expected in the weeks or months to come.

The ongoing decline from 133.13 does look a bit short-term overstretched and wave b could be ready to start developing anytime soon. A break above minor resistance at 128.70 will be the first indication that wave a has completed and wave b is developing for a rally towards 130.20.

R3: 129.22

R2: 128.47

R1: 128.08

Pivot: 127.90

S1: 127.47

S2: 127.20

S3: 126.61

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 128.20 was hit and we will stay sidelined for now.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 25, 2018

EUR/USD has broken below the critical support of 1.1450-1.1430 and has pushed as low as 1.1378. The price is now bouncing and I expect the previous support (now resistance) to be back tested. I expect prices to get rejected at this resistance area.

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Purple line - resistance

Blue rectangle - resistance

EUR/USD is bouncing towards the resistance of 1.1430-1.1450. Next resistance is located at 1.1470 by the downward sloping trend line. Support is at yesterday lows. I expect these levels to be broken downwards and prices to move lower towards 1.13-1.12 over the coming weeks. I'm bearish as long as the price is below 1.1620.

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Trading plan for 25/10/2018

The plummets of the global stock market have wiped out this year's profits from Wall Street, and the falls in Asia are not slowing down. But the currency market is still relatively calm. We see a slight rebound after yesterday's USD appreciation. The SP500 index fell by 3.09% wiping out this year's profits. Nasdaq crashed by 4.63%, which first looks like a spiral of negative sentiment, but there is no shortage of real reasons: high valuations, passing the top in the dynamics of revenues, higher interest rates and fears about the effects of the US-China trade war. In Asia, you can see a continuation of declines with the Japanese Nikkei225 down 3.5%; in Shanghai Composite loses 1.6%

The situation on the FX market remains more controlled, which, however, is more evidence of low investor involvement than a sign of calm recovery. USD / JPY does not move away from 112 (despite the collapse of the Tokyo Stock Exchange), EUR / USD returned over 1.14.

On Thursday, the 25th of October, the event of the day is the ECB Interest Rate Decision and the following ECB Press Conference with Mario Draghi. The other events that the global investors should keep an eye on are German Ifo data, Durable Goods Orders data from the US, Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims data from the US as well.

AUD/USD analysis for 25/10/2018:

Australia's rating remains at the highest level since 2002. Fitch rating agency maintained its assessment and left a stable perspective. Analysts expect GDP growth at 3.3% in 2018. In the following years, there will be a slight slowdown in dynamics to 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020.

The report says that "Australia's fiscal position has strengthened over the last year. It is driven by the cycle of higher revenues and the maintained level of expenditure in accordance with the strategy of repairing the country's budget. "The state budget as a whole will amount to around 1.2% of GDP at the end of the year. For comparison, a year earlier this result amounted to 1.9% of GDP.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has bounced for the third time from the level of 0.7055 and it moved towards the 61% Fibo at 0.7086 but failed to hit it so far. The RSI is slightly above its fifty level, but it might not last for long as the bears are now trying to push the price towards the level of 0.7067 where the nearest support is located. The trend remains down and to change the trend to the uptrend, the bulls would have to push the prices above the level of 0.7105.

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Global macro overview for 25/10/2018

The Euro currency is trading calmly and the market seems to be immune to information about Italy. The market is waiting for the ECB meeting and will be looking for an answer to the question of whether recent turbulence would be sufficient to affect the prospects of monetary policy. The confusion over plans to increase the budget deficit next year translates into an increase in credit risk and the sale of Italian bonds, putting into question the future stability of the system. The difference in the profitability of the Italian and German 10-year-olds exceeded 3 percent points and is the highest in five years. It is unlikely that the ECB intends to take measures to stabilize the debt market and many times in the comments the members of the Governing Council pointed out that the problem of Italy is isolated and you can not see the so-called effect of infecting other markets. At the same time, it would be prudent to stop all future strategy decisions that could suggest a departure from accommodative monetary policy. This means postponing the formal decision to end the QE program at the last minute, ie the December meeting. In the broader horizon, we remain positive towards the euro prospects. The issue of public finances of Italy is a type of ballast that can slow down, delay the appreciation of the single currency, but it is not enough to prevent it.

The ECB Interest Rate decision is scheduled for 12:45 pm GMT and the market participants expect the rate to be left unchanged at the level of 0.00%. No change is expected to Deposit Facility Rate (-0.40) and Marginal Lending Facility ( 0.25%). The ECB Press Conference event is scheduled at 13:30 pm GMT.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the ECB decision is made public. The area between the levels of 1.1432 - 1.1444 will now act as a resistance zone. The next important technical support is seen at the level of the 1.1354 - 1.1347 zone, but please notice the growing bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator in oversold market conditions. The bulls are weak, so the market might try to test the lower range of prices and the trigger for this move might be the macro event like the ECB rate decision and the following press conference with Mario Draghi. Please keep an eye on the price behavior as the volatility will increase during this event.

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Global macro overview for 25/10/2018

The overseas drops took on some signs of panic. The SP500 index grouping the largest companies in the US fell by 3.09% on Wednesday, wiping out profits from the entire year, and the technological Nasdaq dropped by as much as 4.4%. The winner was the American dollar and American bonds also strengthened. Both assets are perceived by investors as a safe haven.

Where does this sale come from? Three hot spots appeared: the US housing market is getting worse and the results of companies are getting worse (the US result season is currently underway) which report possible problems with future profits due to trade wars and global GDP growth. Investors might have been disturbed by bombs sent to CNN, the Obama and Clinton house.

Will it turn into a long bear market? There is no obvious answer to this, although analysts point out that the bull market in the United States is holding the last of its strength, and instead of rewarding better company results, investors sell them out for fear of worsening results in the future: "It is a sign that the bull market is ending" - they argue.

A lot is also said in the Fed's policy, which consistently raises interest rates, which are often the enemy of stock market investors. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump said in an interview that "the Federal Reserve is the biggest threat to the American economy." This is another billionaire critique for Jerome Powell, the Fed's chief.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. After a failure to rally above the level of 274.40, the market reversed and all the supports were broken on its way to the level of 264.12, so now the levels of 267.69, 268.38 and 270.32 will act as a resistance for the price. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 264.12, but if this one is violated as well, then the next one is seen at the level of 260.48. On the other hand, there is a clear bullish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator, so a short-term pullback is welcome.

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Bitcoin analysis for 25/10/2018

According to today's financial media news from Japan, the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) has given the local crypto industry a "self-regulatory" status, leaving supervision over the space of the Japanese Association for Virtual Currency Exchange (JVCEA).

The FSA expects the self-regulatory body to lay down rules for the protection of clients' assets, develop anti-money laundering (AML) rules and provide working guidelines for cryptographic exchanges. An anonymous FSA official quoted by Reuters says that JVCEA experts can better manage regulations than a government body: "It is a very fast-growing industry. It is better than the experts set the rules in a timely manner than the bureaucrats do " - argued.

Self-regulation comes into force immediately, starting today - the main principles and guidelines are already published on the JVCEA website. The regulatory body currently has 15 employees, but according to financial media from Japan, this number is expected to increase to 20 people by November.

JVCEA was founded in April 2018 and consists of 16 companies that have registered as cryptocurrency exchanges. The formation of the group took place after the January burglary during which 534 million dollars from the Coincheck cryptocurrency exchange in Japan were stolen. The Association's responsibilities include security control of cryptographic exchanges in the country, as well as other specific tasks, such as assessing tokens issued as part of initial monetary offers (ICO).

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trading inside of the consolidation zone, but the bearish pressure is starting to grow slowly. The price has tested the technical support again this night, but so far bounced from the level of $6,322. Any violation of this level will immediately open the road towards the level of $6,310 and $6,287. Below those two supports, there is only one more important support at the level of $6,110, so the breakout lower might have important repercussions. Please notice the volatility is limited for now, but the outburst can occur any time now.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for October 24, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the price will move down with the first target of 1.2922 on the lower fractal. After breaking through this level, the next lower target is the support line (red thick line) at 1.2728.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price will move down with the first target of 1.2922 on the lower fractal.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of EUR / CHF pair for the week of October 24

Wave pattern of the H4 chart:

In the coming days, the flat mood of the movement will continue. It is necessary to wait for the completion of the entire correctional stage. Sales are risky and can only be justified in intraday trading.

Wave pattern of the H1 chart:

The high potential of the rising wave since September 7 makes it possible to wait for a change in the direction of the entire short-term trend next month.

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Wave pattern of the M15 chart:

From November 11, a downward wave zigzag develops in the form of an extended plane. In the wake of the hourly timeframe, it took over the place of correction.

5MJ4CN8hak6VObEOKuTOa4kDKzsztpNMPbThDcW8Recommended trading strategy:

In the coming days, the flat mood of the movement will continue. It is necessary to wait for the completion of the entire correctional stage. Sales are risky and can only be justified in intraday trading.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1350 / 1.1300

Explanations of the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). For the analysis, the 3 main timeframes are used. The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of GBP / USD pair for the week of October 24

Wave pattern of the H4 chart:

The rising wave of August 15 sets the dominant direction in the short term. In the structure of the wave, the middle part (B) is nearing its end.

Wave pattern of the H1 chart:

The downward wave from September 20 is nearing completion. It looks like a standard plane and it became a correction in the model of the higher timeframe.

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Wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The downward wave of October 12 completes the hourly wave model. The price is approaching the upper boundary of the potential reversal zone of a large scale.

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the coming days, the probability of a change in the vector of price movement is high. In the area of support, it is recommended to track the purchase signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3110 / 1.3160

Support areas:

- 1.2940 / 1.2890

Explanations of the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). For the analysis, the 3 main timeframes are used. The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for EUR / USD pair on October 24, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the market will move downward, with the first goal of 1417 on the support line (white thin line) and a strong news is expected to come out at 10.30.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the downward movement is expected with the first target of 1.1417 on the support line (white thin line). If the market reaches this level, then an upward movement may begin.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The fate of the pound is in the hands of the 1922 Committee

The members of the Committee for a vote of no confidence ("1922 Committee") called British Prime Minister Theresa May "onto the carpet", who today must speak to the conservative deputies. The results of the meeting of this Committee will be largely decisive for the prime minister - either she will remain in power or leave the political Olympus. The market is looking forward to the results of this dialogue, because they affect not only the political career of May, but also the fate of Brexit, and therefore – the British currency.

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The "1922 Committee" is a group of ordinary deputies of the Conservative party who do not hold any positions in the current government. They control (or rather, supervise) the election of party leaders, and can make a vote of no confidence. Theresa May, this year "answered" before the members of the Committee after a failed conservative parliamentary elections. Let me remind you that at that time the prime minister wanted to strengthen the position of conservatives and decided on an unscheduled plebiscite, but in the end the Tories lost the majority. They were then forced to form a coalition alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party, whose 10 representatives essentially ensured the viability of the May minority government in parliament.

Then the prime minister held her position and continued to head the Cabinet. However, today's political developments do not allow us to speak with confidence about its possible victory. Last weekend, the British press published a letter from a conservative MP (his name remains unknown), who urged his colleagues to rally around the idea of impeachment. According to journalists, the author of this letter is a representative of the centrist group of conservatives, who previously actively supported the actions of the head of government. After that, there were rumors on the market that many centrists moved to the camp of "hawks", and the probability of the prime minister's resignation in many ways increased.

It is worth recalling here that in September, the press got a hold of an official note from the "1922 Committee", whose members offered Theresa May to leave her post immediately after the country's withdrawal from the EU, that is, in March next year. The document also published a list of possible successors – the list consisted of almost three dozen surnames. Members of the Committee even assessed the chances of each of them for possible success. However, at that time the issue of resignation did not move from a dead end, despite the presence of an initiative group of conservatives, who again raised the issue of impeachment. But this group was too small for any action. Now the situation is somewhat different, especially if the rumors about the centrists are confirmed.

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In general, according to many experts, the probability of a scenario in which May will announce a vote of confidence is now "as high as ever". According to unconfirmed information, the number of deputies who are ready to demand the resignation of the prime minister, has recently come close to the necessary target.

There are two main claims of conservatives – the lack of results in the negotiations on Brexit and unacceptable options for compromise solutions. In other words, the conservatives on the one hand are not satisfied with a slip in the negotiations, and on the other hand – May's willingness to make concessions in certain issues. It is worth noting that even those proposals that the British consider to be concessions are unacceptable to Brussels. And vice versa – the compromise options of Europeans are categorically rejected by London. Therefore, if the conservatives force Theresa May to take a more rigid and categorical position, the chaotic Brexit will be hard to avoid.

Now the negotiators are puzzled over how to reduce customs control at the Irish border, and in fact this issue remains the most difficult (but not the only one) of the unresolved problems. Earlier this week, the "hawks" among the conservatives decided to legislate a ban on Theresa May to agree to the terms of the EU on the fate of the Irish border.

Then this idea was supported by the representatives of the Unionist Party, after which the chances of adopting this law increased in many ways. This situation is also a form of pressure on the prime minister, as legislators reduce its maneuverability in the negotiation process. If the appendage to the whole "1922 Committee" expresses its vote of no confidence, the decision to resign, it can take on their own, without waiting for further action by its members of the same party.

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What will happen to the pound then? In short, nothing good, as the political uncertainty in Britain for five months before the "X hour" will surely bring down the pound by several figures – and not only against the US dollar, but throughout the market. Then everything will depend on the further configuration of political solitaire, but the initial reaction of the market will be definitely negative. Therefore, the results of today's meeting of the "1922 Committee" can play a crucial role for the prospects of the GBP/USD pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com