BITCOIN Analysis for June 20, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite corrective yet bullish recently, trying to push the price harder above $6,500 area. There are already certain rumors that the cryptocurrency market may get certain boost from the US tariffs in imports. If new tariffs come into force, we might see Bitcoin surging higher again pretty soon. As for the current scenario, certain bullish divergence can be spotted in the market whereas a false break below $6,500 and pushing higher with a daily close indicates the upcoming bullish pressure that could push the price higher towards $8,000 area in the medium term. As the price remains above $6,500 area with a daily close, the bullish pressure is expected to continue in the market.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for June 20, 2018

EUR/GBP as been trading in a volatile and corrective phase between 0.87 to 0.8850 area for a few months now. On the back of mixed results of recent economic reports from the eurozone and the UK, the pair is expected to trade without a clear bias until a breakout with a daily close occurs in the coming days.

Ahead of the UK Official Bank Rate report to be released tomorrow which is expected to be unchanged at 0.50%, GBP is likely to gain certain attention from market participants this week. On the other hand, the ECB failed to impress the market by its decision to put the key policy rate on hold till summer 2019 as stated by ECB President Draghi in his recent speech.

Today, the UK CBI Industrial Order Expectation report was published with an increase to 13 from the previous negative figure of -3 which was expected to be at 1. The positive result made no impact today on GBP, but stopped the impulsive bullish pressure in the pair for a while now. Moreover, on the EUR side, today German PPI report was published with an unchanged value of 0.5% which was expected to decrease to 0.4%.

As for the current scenario, the pair is expected to trade with higher volatility without definite pressure in the coming days until the UK or the eurozone comes up with solid fundamentals to create definite pressure and direction in the pair. Mixed economic data will only cause further correction and volatility in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite indecisive, making a formation of spinning top candle pattern on the daily candle. After impulsive bullish pressure for last three days, certain indecision indicates further correction and injection of bearish pressure. A breakout above 0.8850 or below 0.87 with a daily close is expected to open definite trend pressure in the pair.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 20, 2018

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Since January, the price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 has been standing as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous weeks' consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why a bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 0.6960 to offset the risk.

Currently, the price levels of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a target level for current sellers.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 20, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) was considered a prominent Supply zone where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were offered on Thursday. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 1.1660 to secure some of the profits.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 is the next destination for the current bearish decline where price action should be watched for bullish demand and a possible bullish pullback.

Otherwise, a Bearish breakdown below 1.1400 might occur if the current bearish momentum persists. This can potentially enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1270 (recent consolidation range and demand level).

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Review of GOLD for a week of June 20 on simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The movement of the price of gold from January 25 sets a bearish wave. In the wave structure, a zigzag (A-B-C) is tracked. The preliminary purpose of the movement is in the area of 1250 USD/XAU ounce.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The wave is descending, it starts counting from April 11. The nature of the motion is close to the momentum. After the flat correction a week ago, the next stage of decline began.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Since June 14, a new bearish wave has started. In the next few days one can wait for the counter phase of the movement (B) to be worked out.

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Recommended trading strategy:

In the next weeks, the most reasonable strategy will be the sale of gold. Conditions for buying this tool have not yet begun.

Resistance zones:

- 1290.0 / 1300.0

Support zones:

- 1250.0 / 1240.0

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for June 20, 2018

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Trading recommendations: According to the H1 time - frame, I found a rising channel and potential end of a downward correction (abc), which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the supply trendline to confirm further upward movement. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.873 and at the price of $7.216.

Support/Resistance

$6.806– Intraday resistance $6.517– Intraday support $6.873– Objective target 1$7.216 - Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Daily review of EUR /USD pair on June 20. Ichimoku Indicator

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EUR / USD pair

Recently, the players on the fall were able to actively and effectively return to the weekly cloud, while they exited the monthly cloud, leaving the bear zone. Now the main question is whether the players will have enough power to restore the downward movement (minimum extremum 1.1510) and to overcome the support of the monthly Kijun (1.1447). In case the bears' succeeds, the further target will be a decrease to the lower boundary of the weekly cloud (1.1215) and testing for the strength of the final line of the monthly gold cross (1.1186). The inability to reliably overcome the support zone 1.1510-1.1447, as well as the return and consolidation above the key resistance zone of 1.1670-1.1708, will allow to speak about a victory within the limits of the current correction of players on the rise. This combines the most important levels of all the older time intervals (day cross + the boundaries of the weekly and monthly clouds). Such a circumstance will undoubtedly lead to the appearance of new prospects and opportunities for the further restoration of bullish positions.

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Lower timeframes are now in solidarity with the above conclusions. You can add 100% target to the bearish landmarks the development to the breakdown of the H4 cloud (1.1497), and full support of bullish sentences by the Ichimoku indicator ). The initial stage in restoring the Ichimoku support is now located above 1.1590 (Tenkan H4 + cloud H1).

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

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Trading plan 06/20/2018

Trading plan 06/20/2018

The overall picture: Trump attacks China. The main political theme is the escalation of trade disputes between the United States and China.

There is no important economic news on the market. The main political theme is the escalation of trade disputes between the United States and China. On Tuesday, June 19, US Trade Advisor Peter Navarro published a detailed document accusing China of unfair trade practices. The document is entitled "As China's economic aggression threatens the technology and intellectual property of the United States and the world."

Against this background, we should expect the stock markets to fall and the US dollar to grow.

GBP/USD pair: At the moment, the pound looks weaker against the dollar than the euro.

We are selling from the level of 1.3220.

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EUR/USD analysis for June 20, 2018

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Recently, EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1566. According to the H1 time - frame, I found potential C wave in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of intraday supply trendline to confirm further upward movement. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1630 and at the price of 1.1690.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1582

R2: 1.1597

R3: 1.1605

Support levels:

S1: 1.1558

S2: 1.1550

S3: 1.1535

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Review of USD / JPY pair for the week of June 20 on simplified wave analysis

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The rising wave of February 16 gave rise to the final part (C) in a larger-scale bullish formation. The preliminary target level is approximately 4 figures higher than the current rate.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

After the corrective phase of the movement, an upward wave formed from May 29. Since last week, the price forms the opposite section (B).

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The bearish wave of June 15 takes the place of correction in the previous increase and has a small downward potential.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Sales of the instrument are risky and not recommended. For all trading styles, it is recommended to pay attention to buying signals of the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 113.30 / 113.80

- 111.20 / 111.70

Support zones:

- 109.40 / 108.90

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for June 20, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,269.00. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a broken bearish flag pattern and completed (abc) upward correction in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,263.35 and at the price of $1,250.15.

Resistance levels: R1: $1,277.25R2: $1,279.20 R3: $1,279.90

Support levels: S1: $1,274.55S2: $1,273.50S3: $1,271.85

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 20/06/2018

In response to US-imposed levies on steel and aluminum, Russia will introduce additional duties on some American goods, Russia's Minister of Economy Maksim Orieszkin announced on Tuesday in Minsk.

Orieszkin added that tariffs will apply to products that have counterparts on the domestic market and ensured that this decision will not affect Russian macroeconomic indicators. "Russia benefits from the right within the World Trade Organization and introduces measures equivalent to goods imported from the USA," Orieszkin said during a visit to Belarus by a Russian delegation headed by President Vladimir Putin. The minister did not specify what goods the duty would be imposed on, but he stressed that the new regulations would come into effect "soon".

On March 8, US President Donald Trump signed a regulation imposing duties on steel imports in the amount of 25% and for imports of aluminum - 10.0%. According to the April statement of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Russia applied to the WTO for damages from the US for import duties.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a local pull-back towards the level of 273.42 and currently is bouncing back again. Nevertheless, the momentum remains weak and the stochastic indicator is still pointing to the downside, so this might be so-called "dead-cat bounce" that will end soon and the control over the market will be taken over by bears again. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 277.51.

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Trading plan for the European session 20 June EUR/USD

To open long positions for EURUSD, it is required:

The most important task for buyers today will be to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1593, where you can expect a larger growth in the area of weekly highs, to the resistance area of 1.1634-40, as well as to update the level of 1.1689, where I recommend to lock in the profit. In case of a further decline in the euro, the support will be at 1.1543. In the event of its breakout, new long positions are best considered only after updating 1.1513 and 1.1482.

To open short positions for EURUSD, it is required:

While trading is below 1.1593, the pressure on the euro will remain, which will lead to the test of intermediate support at 1.1543, the breakdown of which will open new weekly lows in the area of 1.1513 and 1.1482, where I recommend profit taking. In case of growth above 1.1593 in the first half of the day, the euro can be sold on a rebound from the weekly highs of 1.1634-40.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Trading plan for the European session on June 20 GBP/USD

To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

The formation of a false breakout at 1.3146 and its confirmation by the divergence on the MACD indicator will be the first signal to buy the pound. The main purpose of buyers is to return and consolidate above 1.3182, where you can count on an upward correction in the area of 1.3225, where I recommend to lock in the profit. In the event of a breakdown of 1.3146, long positions in the GBP/USD are best sought in the area of 1.3104 and 1.3077.

To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Sellers will try to gain a foothold below the support of 1.3146, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave in the area of 1.3104 and 1.3077, where I recommend to lock in profit. In case of an increase in the resistance of 1.3182 in the first half of the day, the sales of the pound can be returned to the rebound from 1.3225 and 1.3269.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 20/06/2018

The fact that the US president was hounding a heavy department in the trade conflict with China (commissioned work on tariffs amounting to US $ 200 billion) has worsened the poor sentiment in the markets by lifting the dollar to 11-month highs. The Chinese yuan fell to the levels last seen in January. On the EUR/USD pair, the wells from the end of May (1.1510) were robust, despite again the dovish comments of M. Draghi.

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) stated at the symposium in Sintra, that the Governing Council "will be patient in determining the moment of the first interest rate hike, and after it will adopt a cautious attitude in adjusting monetary policy". In his opinion, the current path of market rates reflects well the intentions of the ECB. He added that the fact of closing the QE asset purchase program does not mean that the bank completely withdraws the support of the activity. According to Draghi, the economy of the Eurozone is developing dynamically, but there are barriers to growth due to the long period of low investment activity. Capacity utilization is above long-term averages. At the same time, factors that adversely affect GDP are strengthened. The President of the ECB included increased protectionism (steel and aluminum duties), rising oil prices (caused by geopolitical tensions) and persistently high volatility of financial markets. Positive impulses include the expansive fiscal policy in the USA. There is still a need to maintain monetary policy accommodation.

The most important thing in Italian's statement was the confirmation of the promise made during the last meeting of the ECB that interest rates will not change at least until summer next year. Attention about properly calibrated, current expectations of the market as to the first increase in the deposit rate, even dismisses her deadline for the second half of the year 2019. The Euro broadly lost the ground across the board again after this statements from Draghi.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture at the daily time frame. The pair has dropped towards the 61% Fibo retracement at the level of 126.80 and the bounced towards the level of 127.48. The market is still trading inside of the channel and the recent rally toward the level of 130.39 has failed to break out of the channel again. Momentum remains below its fifty level, so the chances are, that the market will continue the downward move towards the level of 124.60. A breakout through the level of 126.80 will accelerate the sell-off.

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British pound can quickly go downward

GBP / USD

Yesterday, the British pound lost 72 points under the pressure of the dollar strengthening, the pessimistic outlook for Brexit and the optimistic expectations of tomorrow's meeting of the Bank of England.

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The immediate support for the pound can serve as a trend line of the embedded price channel (1.3096). Next comes the range of 1.3025 / 55 which are the lows of October and November last year. After overcoming this support zone, it is possible to reduce to the next trend line of the channel - 1.2872.

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On the 4-hour chart, the price in the Marlin oscillator formed a convergence which may indicate the potential price consolidation, but the signal line of the indicator fits into the wedge, which a sharp exit downwards can be expected.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD as of June 20, 2013

After the last ECB meeting on the monetary policy, there was some kind of understatement.The program of quantitative easing has been extended, but not for the first time, and it is natural that investors have a fair question about the possibility of its further extension. However, during the press conference, Mario Draghi did not say anything about it, so investors did not get answers to their questions. Yesterday, everything fell into place when the ECB head openly stated that he did not rule out a further extension of the quantitative easing program. He argued that the ECB is forced to use extreme measures to mitigate the negative consequences of the trade war with the United States. So it is clear that the ECB has radically changed its approach to this issue, and if earlier the rationale for the endless extension of the quantitative easing program was inflation, now it is not even mentioned, although it has already approached the coveted 2.0%. Thus, many are beginning to think more and more that the reason for starting and extending the quantitative easing program is not inflation and economic growth, but in excessive debts hanging on the countries of the European Union. That's just the problem no one solves, and the inclusion of the ECB printing press gives only little leeway. It's impossible to print money forever, and if the problem of debts does not begin to be solved, then the efforts of the ECB will be useless. And if it is a matter of debt, which few people doubt, then, given the inaction of the countries of the European Union to address this issue, it turns out that the program of quantitative easing will operate forever.

Mario Draghi did not ignore the issue of the refinancing rate, saying that it could be raised only after the completion of the quantitative easing program. Given the current ECB plan, this issue can be considered only six months after the completion of the quantitative easing program. If the ECB continues to extend the program of quantitative easing, the refinancing rate will never be raised.

So it is not surprising that the single European currency yesterday continued to lose its position with renewed force. And the decline began before Mario Draghi's speech, which means that investors were waiting for answers to their questions and feared the worst. Unfortunately, their fears were confirmed.

If we talk about what is happening in the US, the situation in the construction industry has remained almost unchanged, although the prospects are not the best. The number of construction projects has increased from 1,286 thousand to 1,350 thousand, and the issued construction permits decreased from 1,364 thousand to 1,301 thousand. The total balance increased by 1,000. However, a sharp decrease in the number of issued construction permits indicates that, that the number of construction projects in the future will also decline. Unlike the US, in Europe, the growth rate of the construction industry accelerated from 1.2% to 1.8%.

Today, Mario Draghi will speak again, but no surprises are expected, as the ECB head has already given answers to the most pressing questions. In the US, there are data on the sale of housing in the secondary market, which should increase from 5.46 million to 5.52 million.

Given the slight confusion that has engulfed the market, one should not even wait for hints of strengthening the single European currency. Especially as the statistics in the US is expected to be good. But do not forget about the excessive overbought dollar, which will restrain its growth. Thus, the single European currency will consolidate near 1.1550.

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Is it worth investing in gold?

Based on title of the review, it can be assume that the answer may be negative. Indeed, the technical picture precisely shows the negative scenario of the medium-term development of this instrument. Considering the schedule for the weekly scale:

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The price in the Marlin oscillator formed an eight-month divergence. The indicator signal line decreases in the negative zone at a moderate rate, which is a sign of stability and long-term trend. The price was fixed under the balance line of the price (red) and the blue moving average line - the signal of the formed trend.

In this case, the Fibonacci level of 76.4% is valid, it was able to hold the price from the summer of 2013, accordingly. The price of 1252 is considered as the first target and strong support but this externally strong level has an inner weakness. In the event that the penetration of the level occurred when the price was under the blue moving average line, the price went deep down (November 2016).

In this regard, we are waiting for overcoming the support of 1252 and a decrease to the trend line of the price channel 1200, which is the first goal. Then the second goal 1105 opens, after which the November 2015 attack may hit 1046.00.

The examined situation has two positive aspects: there will be more favorable prices for long-term investments in gold (bullions, coins, OMC, mutual funds, etc.), and the world crisis may not begin before the year ends.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 20/06/2018

The Bank for International Settlements in a 24-page article published yesterday as part of the annual economic report stated that cryptocurrencies are not scalable enough to function as money.

According to BRM - an organization based in Switzerland consisting of 60 central banks from around the world - cryptocurrencies will not be able to become a medium of exchange in the global economy. The BRM report presents three key shortcomings that will prevent cryptocurrencies from replacing money - they are 'scalability, the stability of value and trust in payment finality'.

BRM criticizes the decentralization of cryptocurrencies as a flaw rather than force, claiming that "trust can disappear at any moment because of the weakness of the decentralized consensus in which transactions are recorded." The bank claims that the majority of Blockchains can at best provide only a "probabilistic" transaction finality.

In this spirit, the report warns further about the "fork-in" of the Blockchains which may cause the division of cryptocurrencies, which entails the risk of a complete loss of their value. The report cites the incorrect update of Bitcoin software from March 2013, which caused the temporary division of Blockchain, and the price of Bitcoin fell by almost a third - although BRM does not mention that Bitcoin regained the majority of losses in a few hours.

BRM also raises concerns that with the expansion of the shared registry, processing transactions require more and more electricity and computing resources that are larger than even the most powerful facilities. In addition, he refers to the manipulation problem caused by the fact that cryptocurrencies extractable are controlled by a small group of miners who have the very powerful equipment.

The report focuses mainly on cryptocurrencies using proof-of-work, non-permissive Blockchain, although it acknowledges the existence of alternative consensus mechanisms, such as proof-of-stake, as well as scaling solutions such as the Lightning Network, maintaining that their operation still needs to be proven in practice.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made another higher high at the level of $6,800, but the price is still trading under the key technical resistance at the level of $6,993. The golden trend line provides the dynamic support for the price and the momentum is still positive. The chances for a test of the key resistance level as still high, so it is worth to keep an eye on $6,993. The immediate support is seen at the level of $6,531.

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Trading plan for 20/06/2018

Markets are calmer today after yesterday's risk aversion. Nikkei225 increases help in the recovery of JPY cross, but USD remains strong. The lack of the expected depreciation of the yuan is calming the Chinese and AUD markets. Higher than expected inventory drop by API helps in WTI increases.

The Asian part of the Wednesday session brings calmness without fresh evidence of the US-China trade crisis. USD / JPY rebounded to 110.20, which also helped on other crossings with JPY, mainly for risky AUD, NZD, CAD and NOK. But EUR / USD remains at 1.16, and GBP / USD cannot find strength and sits close to 1.3160.

The positive point of the day is the lower-than-expected USD/CNY fixing, which was feared as a signal of a drop in investors' confidence in Chinese assets. This allowed to stop the declines on the Chinese stock exchange and Shanghai Composite pulls out at + 0.3%. Japanese Nikkei225 grows 1.1%.

On Wednesday 20th of June, economic events come mainly from the US market and subsequent speeches at the Economic Symposium in Sintra. The publication, which investors should pay particular attention to, are US data on DOE oil inventories. Real estate news will come from the real estate market regarding home sales in the secondary market. In addition, the number of mortgage applications from the United States and the current account balance will be published. Wednesday is a day full of statements of the members of the European Central Bank. Villeroy, Lauteschlaeger, Knot and Coeure will speak. We can also expect a panel with the participation of central bank governors: Draghi, Powell, Kuroda and Lowe. Investors will probably continue to pay special attention to the development of dialogue between the administration of Donald Trump and the government of China.

EUR/USD analysis for 20/06/2018:

The last hours of trading in the currency market did not bring any more emotions. Theoretically, we remain in a risk-off type, but the last trading hours have brought a slight rebound in the debt prices and a drop in the yen valuation, which indicates a local revival of demand for more risky assets. In the background, we are speculating about the ECB, where yesterday's weakness in EUR may be explained by the somewhat dovish tone of M. Draghi's speech.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls were too weak to break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.1639 - 1.1653 and the price went down to test the support at the 1.1542 again. Nevertheless, the market conditions are oversold and the price is starting to diverge from the momentum, so there is still a chance for a bounce higher. However, as long as the price remains under 1.1653, the bears are in full control of the market as this is the key level for them.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of June 20

Forecast for June 20:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the H1 scale:

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For the EUR/USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1683, 1.1640, 1.1611, 1.1542, 1.1511, 1.1491 and 1.1451. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of June 7. The downward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1.1542, in this case the target is 1.1511, in the corridor 1.1511 - 1.1491 consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is the 1.1451 level, and we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement and consolidation are possible in the corridor 1.1611 - 1.1640, the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction, with the target at 1.1683. This level is the key support for the downward movement.

The main trend is the downward cycle from June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1611 Take profit: 1.1638

Buy 1.1641 Take profit: 1.1680

Sell: 1.1540 Take profit: 1.1511

Sell: 1.1490 Take profit: 1.1453

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For the Pound/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3311, 1.3281, 1.3225, 1.3191, 1.3112, 1.3071 and 1.3030. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of June 7. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 1.3112 - 1.3071, the breakdown of the last value will lead to a move near the potential target at 1.3030, which we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3191 - 1.3225, the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction, with the target at 1.3281. The range 1.3281 - 1.3311 is the key support for the downward movement, prior that, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward cycle from June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3191 Take profit: 1.3225

Buy: 1.3228 Take profit: 1.3280

Sell: 1.3112 Take profit: 1.3075

Sell: 1.3068 Take profit: 1.3035

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For the Dollar/Franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0092, 1.0048, 1.0025, 0.9990, 0.9949, 0.9924 and 0.9890. Here, we continue to follow the upward cycle from June 7, where the price is currently in correction. The upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 0.9990, in this case the target is 1.0025, in the corridor 1.0025 - 1.0048 consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.0092 after the breakdown at 1.0050.

Short-term downward movement and consolidation are possible in the corridor 0.9949 - 0.9924. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction, with the target at 0.9890 which is the key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from June 7, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9990 Take profit: 1.0025

Buy: 1.0050 Take profit: 1.0090

Sell: 0.9947 Take profit: 0.9926

Sell: 0.9922 Take profit: 0.9892

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For the Dollar/Yen pair, the key levels on the scale are: 112.24, 111.90, 111.31, 110.92, 110.69, 110.15, 109.79, 109.46 and 108.91. Here, we continue to follow the formation of the local structure for the top of June 8. Currently, the price is in correction. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after passing through the price range of 110.69 - 110.92, in this case the target is 111.31. We consider the level 112.24 to be a potential value for the top, and we expect consolidation in the corridor 112.24 - 111.90.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 110.15 - 109.79. Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 109.79 - 109.46, and the breakdown of the latter value will develop a downward structure, with the potential target at 108.91.

The main trend: a local structure for the top of June 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.92 Take profit: 111.30

Buy: 111.33 Take profit: 111.90

Sell: 109.76 Take profit: 109.48

Sell: 109.44 Take profit: 108.95

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For the Canadian Dollar/US Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3454, 1.3400, 1.3340, 1.3260, 1.3219, 1.3159 and 1.3116. Here, we follow the local upward structure of May 31. The upward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1.3340, in this case the target is 1.3400 near the consolidation area. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3454 and a downward pullback is expected from this level.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3260 - 1.3219. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction, with the target at 1.3160. The range 1.3159 - 1.3116 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of May 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3340 Take profit: 1.3400

Buy: 1.3402 Take profit: 1.3452

Sell: 1.3260 Take profit: 1.3220

Sell: 1.3216 Take profit: 1.3160

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For the Australian Dollar/US Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7569, 0.7512, 0.7440, 0.7400, 0.7322, 0.7262 and 0.7216. Here, we continue to follow the downward cycle from June 6. The downward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of the 0.7322 level, the target here is 0.7262, in the corridor 0.7262 - 0.7216 consolidation and we expect a key upward turn from this point.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 0.7400 - 0.7440, the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 0.7512. We expect initial conditions for the upward cycle to reach the level of 0.7569.

The main trend is the downward cycle from June 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7400 Take profit: 0.7440

Buy: 0.7442 Take profit: 0.7510

Sell: 0.7320 Take profit: 0.7264

Sell: 0.7260 Take profit: 0.7218

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For the EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.52, 128.80, 127.80, 126.77, 126.18, 125.08 and 124.15. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of June 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 126.77 - 126.18, the breakdown of the last value will lead to a move near the consolidation level 125.08. Potential value for the bottom is the level 124.15, where we expect an upward rollback.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 127.80 - 128.29. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 128.80, this level is the key support for the downward structure from June 13. Breaking down this level will develop an upward structure with the potential target at 129.52.

The main trend is the downward structure of June 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.80 Take profit: 128.25

Buy: 128.32 Take profit: 128.80

Sell: 126.75 Take profit: 126.20

Sell: 126.14 Take profit: 125.15

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For the Pound/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 146.58, 146.20, 145.66, 145.31, 144.47, 143.96, 143.16 and 142.69. Here, we follow the development of the downward cycle of July 7. The downward movement is expected to continue after the breakthrough of level 144.47. In this case, the target is 143.96 zone near the consolidation level. The breakdown of 143.95 is expected with an evident move to the level of 143.16. The potential value for the bottom is the 142.69 level which we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 145.31 - 145.66, breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction with the target at 146.20. The range of 146.20 - 146.58 is the key support for the downward structure, prior that, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formalized.

The main trend is the downward cycle from June 7.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.31 Take profit: 145.65

Buy: 145.70 Take profit: 146.20

Sell: 144.45 Take profit: 144.00

Sell: 143.95 Take profit: 143.20

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis on USD/JPY for June 20, 2018

The USD/JPY pair has held support at 109.50 and bounced back above the 110 level. USD/JPY has broken the bullish channel and is now back testing the breakdown area of 110.40-110.20.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The USD/JPY pair bounced off the lower cloud boundary. Price reached the upper cloud boundary which is short-term resistance. Holding at least inside the cloud is in favor of the bulls. Bears need to break down below the cloud support at 110. A 4-hour close below 110 will be a bearish sign. I remain longer-term bearish about USD/JPY looking for at least a move to 108 if not lower.

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Technical analysis on USDX for June 20, 2018

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend. Price is near its 2018 highs. My longer-term view is bearish but there is no sign for a reversal yet. There are some warnings but no confirmed reversal sign yet.

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Black line - resistance

Red line - support

The Dollar index remains in a bullish trend. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the red trend line support. Short-term support is found at 94.89. Resistance is at 95.30. The RSI is diverging despite the new higher highs. This is a bearish warning. Below 94.89 I would look to open short positions and increase them on a break below the cloud and the red trend line support.

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Technical analysis on Gold for June 20, 2018

Gold price remains inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Gold bulls need to break above $1,300 for a confirmed break out and for a bounce at least towards $1,330-40.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line - support

Yellow line - bullish RSI divergence

Gold price is in an attractive for buying area. Gold price potential is to the upside and not to the downside. Despite the new lows yesterday the RSI did not confirm this new low. Gold price in the short-term will at least move towards the red downward sloping trend line resistance. Support is at $1,270. Resistance is at $1,297-$1,300. A break above $1,300 will be a very bullish sign. A rejection at the $1,295-$1,300 level will open the way for a move towards $1,250-60.

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