Bitcoin analysis for April 03, 2019

BTC has been trading upward. The price re-visited the resistance at $5.070 and BTC got rejected. Seems like buyers lost power and that most of buyers exited their positions.

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According to the H1 time-frame, we found very high reading at 48 on the ADX indicator, which is sign that trend and momentum are still strong. Anyway, because of the climatic actions in the background and the re-test of the high at $5.070 buying looks very risky. In our opinion it is better to play for potential downside correction in case that you see the breakout of the upward trendline. Downward target is set at $4.641. Watch for buying opportunities only if you see breakout of the $5.070 and successful re-test.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Sunny day for the dollar seems to be nearing sunset

Over the past year, the greenback has been strengthened mainly due to the divergence in the economic growth of the United States and the rest of the world, as well as trade conflicts, and the monetary tightening of the Fed.

However, the upward trend in the USD index may be questionable when neither the Fed nor the White House is against the weakening of the US currency.

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The picture for the dollar is not entirely rosy in the light of the fact that Washington and Beijing can sign an agreement on ending the trade war. The gradual restoration of European and Chinese GDP will make it possible to count on the dispersal of the global economy.

In addition, it is possible that in order to achieve the goal of raising the country's GDP by 3% under the conditions of the "fading" effect of the tax reform and the Fed will have to at least reduce the federal funds rate.

According to HSBC experts, instead of simply reducing the rate, the regulator can launch a new asset purchase program.

In such conditions, the US currency will be forced to weaken.

"The best days for greenback this year seem to be over," experts at Morgan Stanley said.

According to their estimates, the dollar could drop by 6% by the end of the year against the background of a slowdown in the US economy and a softening of the Fed's position.

"We think that the dollar has peaked in the current cycle and may be cheaper than the market expects. The weakening of the "American", in turn, will help reduce the attractiveness of investments in dollar assets, "representatives of the financial institution said.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 03, 2019

GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3194. Anyway, we found that there can be potential trap for buyers and that the bullish movement wasn't strong enough.

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According to the H1 time-frame, we found that there is the fake breakout of the resistance at the price of 1.3147, which is sign that buyers don't have enough power to sustain the breakout. Most recently, there is the down breakout of the 5-hour balance, which is another sign of the GBP weakness. Resistance level is seen at the price of 1.3194 and the support levels are seen at 1.3060 and 1.2980.

Trading recommendation: We sold GBP from 1.3138 with targets at 1.3060 and 1.2980. Protective stop is placed at 1.3205.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY analysis for April 03, 2019

USD/JPY has been trading upwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 111.58. We are still expecting more upside on USD/JPY.

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According to the H4 time-frame, USD/JPY is still in the robust short-term upward trend and our expectation is that price will head towards the resistance levels at 111.70 and 111.90. ADX reading is at 31, which is another sign that trend is strong. Price is also trading above the 20-exponential moving average (yellow line) and most recently we got the breakout of the bullish flag. Support level is seen at the price of 111.20.

Trading recommendation: We are still holding our long position from 110.95 with the secured stop lose on breakeven but we added another smaller long position from 111.40 and with the protective stop at 111.10.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: the euro strengthened against the background of good data on PMI in the service sector and retail sales, but further

The data released in the first half of the day on activity in the services sector of the eurozone countries supported the European currency, which managed to strengthen its position against the US dollar, however, as the day before, the growth was temporary.

According to the report of the company Markit, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for Italy rose to 53.1 points in March, while in February it was 50.4 points. Economists had expected the index to rise to 50.7 points in March. The IHS Markit noted that the positive dynamics of the activity of service companies can help pull the economy out of the recession.

The same indicator for Germany also pleased investors. According to the data, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for Germany's service sector rose to 55.4 points in March, while in February it was 55.3 points. Economists did expect the index to decline to 54.9 points.

But France "pumped up" with its indicator for the service sector, which in March fell below 50 points, indicating its decline. According to the report, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for France in March was 49.1 points, while in February it stood at 50.2 points. Economists did expect a larger fall of the indicator to the level of 48.7 points.

Good performance in the eurozone countries managed to lead to an increase in the overall index for the eurozone services sector, which rose to 53.3 points in March against 52.8 points in February. It was predicted to decrease to 52.7 points.

As for the composite index, based on recent data on eurozone PMI in the manufacturing sector and the service sector, in March there was a decline to 51.6 points against 51.9 points in February. Let me remind you that a value above 50 indicates an increase in activity.

All this once again suggests that the downside risks for the eurozone economy are only increasing.

Data on retail sales in the euro area also supported the euro, but some are not enough to positively affect the overall situation in the European economy.

According to the data, retail sales in the eurozone in February of this year grew by only 0.4% compared with January. Compared to the same period in 2018, retail sales increased by 2.8%. Economists had forecast retail sales to increase by only 0.2% in February. Retail sales in the eurozone in January were revised to 0.9% after falling 1.4% in December 2018.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it generally remained unchanged. The buyers of risky assets, though close to the upper border of a wide side channel, but all that was able to push it a few points. Now the main trade will unfold in the range of 1.1185-1.1250 with a middle in the area of 1.1218. Only a break of 1.1250 will lead to new highs in the area of 1.1290 and 1.1330.

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The growth of oil can only cancel force majeure

The dynamics of oil is optimistic and prices are convincingly going up. The American WTI is trading above $60 a barrel and Brent is close to $70 a barrel. Hedge funds and other financial managers have increased their long positions in black gold. Net long for six major contracts was increased by 37 million barrels for the week of March 26. It is noted that the expansion of pure long on WIT and Brent was due rather to the growth of adding new long positions rather than closing short ones.

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Hedge funds have stepped up to open a buy position after a pause in March for a number of reasons.

A period of relaxation for 8 importers of Iranian oil is coming to an end and therefore, market participants are worried that America will not extend the exemptions for these countries. An argument for the growth of oil was the first estimates of a new decline in production by OPEC + members in March. Both planned reductions and extraordinary circumstances have played their part.

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By the end of March, Russia reduced production by 0.18 Mb/d, which is lower than the promised figure. At the same time, many OPEC + countries have exceeded their obligations. It is curious how much Venezuela has reduced. Preliminary data showed that average production was just under 1 Mb/d. Equally interesting is the similar information from Saudi Arabia set the tone for OPEC+ and showed maximum production cuts compared to the end of last year, which in connection with the upcoming IPO.

Information about the largest Ghawar oil field in the world in Saudi Arabia became an unexpected engine of price growth. Bloomberg reported, the production here is a maximum of 3.8 Mb/d, which is far below market expectations and previously announced by Saudi Aramco itself. Previously, it was about 5 Mb/d and EIA completely estimated production at Gavar at 5.8 Mb/d. It turns out that now the largest oil whale is inferior in performance to American fields Permian. After a serious deterioration in production rates, oil market traders will be concerned with some caution about the estimates that the country can easily increase production to 12 Mb/d, in principle. Meanwhile, the Saudis have something to brag about except for Ghawar.

Oil is supported by optimistic data on the industrial sector of China, as well as the declared progress in trade negotiations between the US and China.

Oil surveys have reached a strong technical resistance and can slow down for a while so that the big players can regroup their positions. In general, interest in shopping now can only cancel the major force.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the American session on April 3. Weak activity in the service sector has limited the upward potential

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Traders bought a pound against the background of optimism associated with Brexit, but a weak report on the service sector in the UK returned bears to the market and limited growth. At the moment, only the formation of a false breakdown in the intermediate support area of 1.3151 will be a signal to buy GBP/USD. However, the optimal scenario for opening long positions will be the test of the minimum of 1.3112 and 1.3072. The task of the bulls in the afternoon will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3192, which will lead the pair to a maximum in the area of 1.3227 and 1.3261, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Traders ignored the fact that the service activity index showed a slowdown, which is a very disturbing signal. The repeated support test of 1.3151 may lead to a larger downward correction in the pound in order to update the lows in the area of 1.3112 and 1.3072, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the scenario of the pound growth above the resistance of 1.3193 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider new short positions on the rebound from the high of 1.3227 and 1.3261.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted above 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates the formation of a bullish market.

Bollinger bands

The break of the average border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3151 will lead to a larger sale of the pound with the test of its lower border in the area of 1.3112.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

April 3, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again on March 11.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBPUSD pair to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated towards the uptrend again.

On March 25, bullish persistence above 1.3250 was needed for confirmation of a bullish Flag pattern. However, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250 demonstrating a false bullish breakout above 1.3200 (the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel).

Hence, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any immediate bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

By the end of last week, the price levels of 1.3020-1.3000 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line are located.

Bearish rejection should be anticipated around the current price levels (1.3160-1.3180) as long as no bullish breakout above 1.3200 is achieved.

Trade Recommendations:

Intraday traders should can have a valid SELL entry around the current price zone (1.3160-1.3180).

SL to be located above 1.3200. TP levels to be located around 1.3100 and 1.3020.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold does not believe Central banks

After a stormy start, gold fans were forced to hold their horses. The US dollar was not as weak as investors expected it after the change in the Fed's outlook, and the US stock market was marked by the best quarterly result since 2009 and the best beginning of the year since 1998. The increase in global risk appetite is not the most favorable background for bulls in XAU/USD. The precious metal is considered to be a safe-haven asset, and the de-escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing and the associated rally of the world stock market clipped its wings.

From a fundamental point of view, the current consolidation of gold is fully justified. First, investors prefer not to force events on the eve of an important report on the state of the US labor market in March. As a rule, employment statistics are perceived as a kind of hint about further actions by the Fed. Secondly, the precious metal is affected by a group of heterogeneous factors: on the one hand, the fall in the yield of Treasury bonds gives it a helping hand, on the other - the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of stock indices, on the contrary, drown the analyzed asset. As a result, futures froze in the short-term trading range of $1280-1300 per ounce.

Despite the blurred ending, the first quarter, the first quarter can be brought to "bulls" on XAU/USD in an asset. Gold closed in the green zone, and ETF reserves rose by 38 tons. Central banks continued to be active, led by a regulator from Russia. In February, its reserves rose by 1 million ounces - the best result since November. According to the World Gold Council, in 2008, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation bought 274 tons of ingots, which is equivalent to $ 11 billion at average prices. Russia's share in the procurement of all regulators is 40%, in global demand for precious metals - 6%. For the first time in history, the scale of gold purchases by the Central Bank exceeded the production volumes in the country. The share of precious metals in gold and foreign exchange reserves increased to 20%, while the share of the US dollar decreased from 46% to 22%.

Dynamics of purchases and gold mining in Russia

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Obviously, Moscow's actions are aimed at reducing dependence on the United States in the context of economic sanctions by diversifying dollar assets into gold and yuan. If other countries follow the same path, then the demand for US currency will seriously suffer, which is a bullish factor for XAU/USD.

In general, the external background is moderately favorable for the analyzed asset. The slowdown in global GDP and the pigeon rhetoric of central banks are pushing down bond yields. As we move up the risks of correction of global stock indices grow. It is difficult to imagine that in the face of disappointing macroeconomic statistics, an increasing likelihood of completion of the economic cycle and recession in the US, the S & P 500 could go north indefinitely. Unless the Fed, under pressure from the White House, starts cutting rates. In this situation, the dollar will weaken, which the bulls on XAU/USD will immediately use.

Technically, the inability of gold to break above resistances by 50% and 61.8% of the CD wave increases the risks of activating the 5-0 pattern. For this, the "bears" need a confident assault of support at $1280 per ounce.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit and EUR: Theresa May expects a new postponement for Brexit, and the euro is trying to form an upward correction

The British pound strengthened its position in pair with the US dollar and continues to update highs against the background of yesterday's statements made by British Prime Minister Theresa May. She announced her intention to apply for an additional delay of Brexit. This was done under the pretext of coordination with the opposition Labor Party of the country's exit plan from the European Union.

During the presentation, May said that the UK needs a longer delay for Brexit, adding that the time for debate and disagreement was over. The Prime Minister wants to have time to agree on a plan for leaving the EU with the Labor Party, which should include an agreement on Brexit. Only this will allow counting on the approval of the agreement by the Parliament. May also noted that she would try to get the approval of the Parliament before the elections in Europe, which will be held on May 22.

Yesterday's data on a weak PMI purchasing managers index for the UK construction sector put only temporary pressure on the pound. According to the report, construction PMI in March 2019 amounted to 49.7 points against 49.5 points in February. Finding an index below the key level of 50 indicates that activity in the sector continues to decline.

Today, we expect an important report on the service sector, which could lead to a sharp increase in the volatility of the pound. In the case of weak indicators, the pressure on the GBPUSD pair may return.

The European currency slightly regained its position against the US dollar after the release of a weak inflation report. According to the data, PPI eurozone producer price index in February of this year grew by only 0.1% compared with January and 3.0% compared with February 2018. Economists had forecast that producer prices in the eurozone would rise by 0.1% and 3.1%, respectively. As for the basic index excluding energy, it remained unchanged in February compared with January and grew by only 1.2% year-on-year.

Weak inflation is another reason to take the time to raise interest rates in the eurozone, which almost no one talks about already.

Data on the US economy also leave more questions than the answer. An important indicator such as the demand for durable goods in the United States has declined, which is a bad sign.

Although the fall was due to a sharp decline in orders for civil aircraft, orders for goods with a service life of at least three years in February decreased by 1.6% compared with January and amounted to 250.58 billion US dollars. Economists had expected orders to decline by 2.1% in February. The US Department of Commerce also reported that orders for civilian aircraft dropped immediately by 31%.

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According to the Retail Economist-Goldman Sachs, the index of sales in US retail chains fell by 1.2% from March 24 to 30 compared to the previous week. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales increased by 0.9%. Retail Economist noted that sales have remained almost unchanged over the past two months.

Let me remind you that on Monday, data from the US Department of Commerce came out, where retail sales declined, indicating a drop in consumer activity.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further growth is required to keep above the support level of 1.1215, from which the bulls will try to build a new upward wave of risky assets growth, with the maximum in the area of 1.1270 and 1.1330. When returning to the support level of 1.1215, buyers will take the initiative only after retesting the low of this month in the 1.1185 area, or already from the larger support areas of 1.1120 and 1.1035.

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GBP/USD. April 3. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The European Union proposes to postpone Brexit to 2020

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 78.4502

From a fundamental point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to continue the logical downward movement and returned to the area above the moving average line. In the meantime, the whole Brexit procedure was on the verge of another transfer. This time, we are talking about next year. Theresa May herself wants to postpone Brexit to a date no later than May 22, in order not to participate in the elections to the European Parliament, and to spend the time gained in negotiations with the opposition forces with the aim of obtaining approval for at least some version of Brexit. The news that the country's withdrawal from the EU may be postponed is not perceived positively by the markets for the first time. It seems that the markets consider any transfer to be a postponement of the implementation of the "tough" Brexit scenario, as well as an increase in the possibility of holding a second referendum, or the refusal of Brexit in general. However, whatever the outcome of May's negotiations with the EU or with the Labor Party, in fact, the UK now has only one way – to organize new votes and hope that the majority will still be formed. However, if the last time the Parliament voted for all Brexit options in a row, several scenarios did not get just a few votes, which gives hope for their adoption in future votes. However, it is precisely these options that should be put on the agenda. In general, the pound received another temporary respite, and Brexit – a new portion of uncertainty.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD has fixed above the moving. Therefore, purchase orders with targets at 1.3184 and 1.3245 have become relevant again. Until a new negative has been received from Britain, the pound may strengthen for some time.

Short positions will become relevant only after the price is fixed back below the moving with the first target at 1.3062. Today in the UK, it is worth paying attention to the publication of the index of business activity in the services sector.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 03, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9895 and 0.9948. Currently, the price is in an upward channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that the pair is still in a bullish trend. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.9948 coinciding with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.9948. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 0.9948. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.9948) with the first target at the level of 0.9983. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.9983, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.0036) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.9895.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. April 3. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Macroeconomic statistics from the United States continues to

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -8.6153

On Wednesday, April 3, the currency pair EUR/USD began to be adjusted. Moreover, the correction began at the wrong time, which would be more logical. Yesterday, reports on orders for long-term goods in the United States frankly failed, and the trend of weak macroeconomic statistics from America is beginning to alarm us. The main indicator for February fell by 1.6%, excluding transport edged up 0.1% (below the forecast), excluding the defense of 1.9%. However, the strengthening of the euro has begun tonight, and not yesterday at the American trading session. The fact that traders do not respond to disappointing statistics from the States indicates that sales of the pair are now preferable. It will be possible to expect a more or less serious strengthening of the euro not earlier than overcoming the moving average line. Today, the euro area is scheduled to publish retail sales for February with a forecast of + 2.3% y / y. If in reality, the increase will be smaller, then the euro may once again fall down. In America today, indices of business activity in the services sector Markit and ISM will be published, as well as a composite IDA. In addition, there will be a report on the change in the number of workers in the private sector. They can also support the US dollar. By the way, we state the fact that for the eighth time traders failed to overcome the area of 1.1200 - 1.1270, this time the fall stopped near the lower boundary of this area.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1200

S2 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1261

R3 - 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of the correction and resume trading for a fall with the targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the pair above the moving with the first targets at 1.1261 and 1.1292. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending, and the euro will have chances for strengthening.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 03, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.6765.

On the H1 chart. the level of 0.6765 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend.

But, major support is seen at the level of 0.6735.

Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100).

Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside.

Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.6735 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6842.

If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6842, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.6911 in order to test the double top.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for April 3. The euro turned around the previous low

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency after the formation of the bullish divergence at the MACD indicator and began to grow in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). The rebound of the pair from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1177). Closing the course of the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the chances of continued growth in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.1281).

The Fibo grid is built on the extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair closed below the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285), which makes it possible to count on a further drop in quotations in the direction of the next retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941). However, it still confuses the previous low of the pair, which will not be easy to pass. Near this low, we can expect a reversal of the pair in favor of the euro currency and the resumption of growth. If there are no problems with its passage, then the chances of falling will increase.

The Fibo grid is based on the extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 since a bullish divergence was formed. The stop-loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177. New purchases – after closing above the level of 1.1241.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177 if the pair rebounds from the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop-loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1241.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for April 3. The pound once again pulled up

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the pair GBP/USD performed a reversal in favor of the pound and consolidation above the retracement level of 76.4% - 1.3094. As a result, on April 3, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3300). Today, emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator. The closing of the pair under the retracement level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American currency and one can expect a slight fall towards the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2969).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pair completed a close above the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.3121), which allows it to continue the growth process in the direction of the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3171). The retreat of quotations from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8%. The consolidation of the pair's rate under the level of 61.8% will increase the probability of falling in the direction of the next retracement level of 76.4% (1.3061).

The Fibo grid is based on the grounds from the extremums of March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3171 and a stop-loss order under the retracement level of 61.8%, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.3121 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3061 and a stop-loss order above the level of 61.8% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3121 (hourly chart).

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Trading Plan 04/03/2019

Overall picture: Brexit denouement is close.

On Wednesday, the British Parliament "Prime Minister's answers to questions at 12.00 GMT.

This is important. For this reason, Theresa May said on Tuesday night that she was ready for the option of a soft Brexit (keeping Britain inside the EU Customs Union) and is ready for an agreement with the opposition to find a version of the agreement with the EU.

In my opinion, this option has a chance of success.

In addition, the report on employment in the US for March will be released from ADP.

EUR/USD: Buy from 1.1255.

We sell from 1.1175.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 3)

The euro / dollar currency pair for the last trading day showed extremely low volatility of 32 points. However, it still came as a result of having a rapprochement at an important level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a stable descending move, where the quote managed to get close to an important level of 1.1180, but already in its aisles the bears felt a long-awaited support, forming a correction as a fact. The news background continues to keep speculators snickering. Yesterday, information was brought in which states that the British opposition leader Jeremy Corbin agreed to meet with Prime Minister Theresa May to discuss ways out of the crisis around Brexit. In turn, Theresa May herself plans to ask the European Union for a new postponement, in order to agree on all the nuances. In her words, the postponement is planned until May 22 so it won't have to participate at the European Parliament elections.

The option regarding the "soft brexit" agreement has caught the attention of interested speculators. As a result, the pound / dollar pair had high jumps whereas the fellow euro / dollar reacted more conservatively to the background; however, after all, there is still room for correction. In turn, the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, in response to the request of British Prime Minister Theresa May for another postponement of Brexit, told them to be more patient. He also gave a hint on the EU's readiness to provide more time to prepare the contract.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar , the PMI data of Europe has already been released. It shows an increase from 52.7 to 53.3. Furthermore, at 12:00 Moscow time, we are waiting for retail sales (yoy) (Feb.), where growth is expected from 2.2% to 2.3%. In the afternoon, PMI statistics will be released for the United States, where they are waiting for a decline.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see the formation of a full-fledged correction, which we have not seen for a long time. The quotation has already reached a maximum of Monday, and it is likely to assume that the upward move will continue to be in line with 1.1270, but after that it can stop.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Traders considered buying positions even at the moment of approaching the level, 1.1180. Now, the position is being maintained. If we do not have deals, then it is more logical to consider above 1.1250.

- Positions for sale will be considered a little later, as soon as the resistance is felt.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short and intraday perspective, there was an upward interest appeared against the background of the correction. Medium term retains a downward interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 3 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 45 points. It is likely to assume that volatility may still increase, as it reaches the daily average.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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NZD/USD: technical review for 03.04.2019

Current dynamic

On 4-hour chart, the NZDUSD pair is trading firmly higher heading for the resistance-area of 0.6792-0.6805 (Murray [3/8]). The breakout of 0.6805 can accelerate the pair's climb towards 0.6835 (Murray [4/8]). However, the area of 0.6866 (Murray [5/8]) level could restrict a further rise. Alternatively, a pullback below 0.6774 (Murray [2/8]) could lead the price back to the area of 0.6744 (Murray [1/8]) - 0.6737. A significant decrease is possible after a breakdown of 0.6737, which can develop to the key support level of 0.6713 (Murray [0/8]).

Technical indicators mostly signal the overall uptrend. MACD is actively declining in the negative zone. Stochastics' lines are pointed upwards, ready to reach the overbought area. Bollinger Bands are pointed sideways.

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Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6774, 0.6744, 0.6713, 0.6683.

Resistance levels: 0.6805, 0.6835, 0.6866, 0,6897.

Trading scenarios

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6805 with the targets at around 0.6835-0.6866 and stop-loss 0.6785.

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.6774 with the targets at around 0.6744-0.6713 and stop-loss 0.6794.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 3. There are 7 points to the previous low, will wave C be built anyway?

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, April 2, trading ended for EUR / USD with another 10 bp loss. However, the minimum of the expected wave 5 is still not updated, which saves the pair with chances of building an upward wave exactly as part of the upward section trend. With today's tool increase, these chances can even increase slightly. The news background in the short term unexpectedly became in favor of the euro currency. Yesterday, there were rather weak reports on orders for durable goods in the United States. Information about business activity indices in the service sector will be shown from America today. If the news turns out to be weaker than market expectations once again, the tool may continue to rise.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed the construction of wave b. Now, I recommend buying a pair with targets near the 1.1455 mark, which corresponds to the maximum of wave a, based on the construction of wave c. Purchases should not be large in volume, as there is a fairly high probability of breaking the wave minimum 5. Nevertheless, purchases near the lows are always attractive.

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Markets continue to play positive expectations

World markets played back another batch of optimism associated with new initiatives on Brexit and rumors that China and the United States are nearing the end of trade negotiations.

Today, the ISM index in the service sector will be published, which is more informative in terms of the growth rate of the US economy than the manufacturing index and may have a significant impact on the adjustment of labor market forecasts for March. Volatility can also strengthen the ADP report on employment in the private sector. In addition, several FOMC members, who can adjust market expectations regarding the Fed's plans, are expected to speak at once.

USD / JPY pair

The Japanese yen continues to fall in price against the backdrop of rising stock markets and declines in panic but apart from external factors, the yen is gaining strength and internal factors.

After Tankan's quarterly business activity figures were worse than expected, the current PMIs were published. In the services sector, there is a slight slowdown and the index is kept in the growth zone, gaining 52p against 52.3 a month earlier. Yet, the business climate subindex fell to an 18-month low.

With the manufacturing sector, all the more it will be difficult. Despite the fact that there was a slight increase from 48.9p in March to 49.2p in February, PMI was firmly entrenched below the expansion zone and is near 3-year lows. The contraction of the manufacturing sector mainly reflects a decline in export demand.

Mizuho Bank monitors the volumes and prices of electronic components, a part of the production in which Japanese companies have long established themselves in leading positions in the world. They said that in the last two months production has decreased significantly.

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From the point of view of financial markets, the collapse indicator of one of the most important components of exports may indicate a decrease in output, as well as a subsequent reduction in GDP growth rates and the return of the multi-year problem of deflation.

After launching the stimulus package in 2014, the Japanese economy grew at a sufficient pace for the Ministry of Finance to start reducing the issuance of new bonds financing the deficit. If the world economy starts to enter the phase of contraction, then the budget revenues will start to fall again. Also, Japan will return to what it started with, but only with a much higher level of public debt than 5 years ago.

At the moment, this is one of the main concerns of investors regarding the yen. The Bank of Japan may announce the launch of its own incentive program at any time, following the Fed and the ECB. These concerns, as well as the general surge in demand for risky assets, will continue to put pressure on the yen. The USD/JPY pair will continue to grow with the nearest target of 112.14 then 112.35 / 45 which is the upper limit of the downward channel. Overcoming this area can change the technical picture to confidently bull.

EUR / USD pair

The report on producer prices somewhat reassured players but there was no decline, which somewhat smoothed out the negative from a weak inflation report. Despite the fact that prices rose by only 0.1% with the annual growth rate slightly increased from 2.9% to 3.0%.

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Markit will publish data on PMI of countries in the eurozone today and expectations are neutral, which are unlikely to significantly affect the euro.

The EUR/USD pair continues to be traded under pressure and the resistance of 1.1175 is still holding up but chances of leaving are growing lower. A pullback will most likely be used to boost sales.

GBP / USD pair

A group of deputies of the UK parliament took the initiative to find a way to prevent the scenario of the country's withdrawal from the EU without any agreement. What is significant is the group being interparty, which means that the development of the situation does not suit both those who voted for the agreement and those who voted against.

Theresa May announced on Tuesday that she will develop a new approach to Brexit in collaboration with Labor leader Corbin. Markets accepted the news with enthusiasm as the pound has grown significantly, but the potential for further growth is limited -we need specifics.

The pound is in equilibrium and trading is likely to be range-bound with some margin in the direction of growth. The resistance is in the zone of 1.3210/15 and moves towards the next level of 1.3267. However, there is no possibility to look further without specifics by agreement. On the other hand, the support is at 1.3013, but a decline is possible only in the case of unexpectedly negative news.

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Overview of the foreign exchange market on 03/04/2019

The next misadventures with three times cursed Brexit made a strong impression on market participants, but all the loudest statements were made in the evening, that is, after various macroeconomic data were published. And they were quite curious. Thus, due to the revision of the previous data on producer prices in Europe, their growth rates accelerated from 2.9% to 3.0%. Previously, it was assumed that the growth rate was just the same at 3.0%. So, due to the revision for the worse of the previous data, an acceleration of growth rates was obtained. In the meantime, durable goods orders in the United States fell by 1.6%, and although this is slightly better than the expected decline by 1.8%, it doesn't exactly make it any more fun. Thus, all the macroeconomic statistics that came out indicated a weakening of the dollar, which in fact happened.

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Now let's see what the various politicians said yesterday.

The British political class continues its vain attempts to gather Humpty Dumpty and the leaders of the entire Royal army. Theresa May made an appeal to the nation, which many are ready to call revolutionary. The Prime Minister invited Jeremy Corbyn, who heads the Labor Party, which has a majority in the House of Commons, to negotiate in order to come up with a single concept on Brexit. Theresa May also asked the European Union to postpone until May 22, just to have time to negotiate with the opposition. Theresa May said that in case of failure of negotiations with the opposition, she will take any decision on this issue, which will take the House of Commons. Jeremy Corbyn himself gladly accepted the offer of "Iron Lady - 2.0", having tactfully kept silent about the fact that it was with this that all Brexit negotiations should have been started. After all, Britain is not just a constitutional monarchy. In fact, this is a parliamentary Republic, and the government can negotiate with anyone about anything, but all this must be approved and authorized by the Parliament. But in the situation with Brexit, everything happened exactly the opposite. And the realization of the fact that it is necessary to enlist the support of Parliament, came only when all the terms are out. After all, the European Union directly stated that if the "divorce" agreement is rejected by the House of Commons for the third time on March 29, the UK should leave the European hostel on April 12 without any "preliminary caresses" in the form of a transition period and agreement. That is exactly what happened on the last business day of March. In response to Theresa May's speech, Donald Tusk has already announced that the fate of Brexit will be discussed at an emergency summit of the European Union, which will be held on April 10. However, some Brussels officials have already proposed a postponement until 2020, and the United Kingdom will have to take part in elections to the European Parliament. So there are a lot of questions, but many were inspired by the fact that attempts to find a compromise are not ceasing, and even there is a movement in the right direction. So no one wanted to look at the above questions, and the pound was growing on the next wave of optimism.

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Of course, the statements of both British and European politicians about yesterday's statements by Theresa May will influence investor sentiment. However, it is worth noting that the most important statements have already been made yesterday, so the effect will not be so serious. However, if Brussels does not immediately declare that it gives a delay until May 22. But the Brussels bureaucrats are not inclined to such hasty actions. First, we need to coordinate everything with Berlin and that's all. And, of course, even yesterday's events and the effect they had on the markets in no way contradicted the impact of macroeconomic statistics. In the United States, there is a summary of the index of business activity in the service sector, as well as a composite index. They should confirm that in the services sector, the index has decreased from 56.0 to 54.8, and the composite one from 55.5 to 54.3. But even more interesting is the fact that today ADP data on employment is published, which precede the Friday report of the United States Department of Labor. So, it is expected that employment increased by 170 thousand versus 183 thousand in the previous month. So Friday's report will be met with not the best mood.

In Europe, there is also a summary of business activity indices, and they should confirm the decline in the services sector from 52.8 to 52.7, and the composite from 51.9 to 51.3. However, the single European currency will receive support from data on retail sales, which should show an acceleration in their growth rates from 2.2% to 2.3%. So the single European currency has good chances to grow to 1.1250.

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In the UK, the index of business activity in the services sector was published, which can be reduced from 51.3 to 50.9. We also do not forget about British politicians who have been unable to agree in any way for more than two years. After all, there is no unity in the Labor Party, and even if Jeremy Corbyn starts to negotiate with Theresa May, there are quite a few among them who will demand a second referendum. And such statements will obviously tickle your nerves. So the pound has every chance to decline to 1.3075.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for April 3. British pound can not determine the direction

analytics5ca46129a4c2f.png

Wave counting analysis:

On April 2, the GBP / USD pair added about 25 bp and failed to renew the previous local minimum. The wave pattern is again complicated, as the new downward trend starts on March 13, and this no longer looks like an impulse one. However, it takes the form of a narrowing triangle. The breakthrough of the top line forming this triangle will further complicate the current wave marking and, in fact, signal that there is no trend. The news background remains generally on the side of the US dollar, but yesterday's news from America helped the pound sterling, while news on Brexit predict another transfer.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern involves the construction of a downward trend. However, the tool had serious difficulties in the breakthroughs of 30 figures, which threw the pair up. The breakthrough of the upper line of the narrowing triangle will indicate that the pair is ready to increase by another 100-150 bp. Unsuccessful attempt of a breakthrough - to reduce 30 pieces to the area.

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Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (April 3)

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 135 points again, as a result of throwing a quote to the values of the beginning of the week. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote has found a foothold in the area of the psychological level of 1.3000 once again, as a result forming a rebound towards the maximum of 1.3148 last Monday. On the other hand, informational and news background continues to hold onto the splashes of Brexit. Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May offered cooperation to the opposition Labour party, where she chose a softer version of Brexit, pushing tough European skeptics into the background and triggering their ire. Moreover, Theresa May delivered another blow to the European skeptics, promising that in case of failure of the negotiations with the Labor Party, she will fulfill the will of the parliament and act with the negotiations as the deputies decide. Thus, with her speech, the head of government even more intrigued over the already confusing Brexit. At the same time, according to Theresa, she is ready to request an additional postponement of the country's withdrawal from the EU at the upcoming EU summit on April 10. The request for a postponement is planned until May 22, in order not to have to participate in the elections to the European Parliament.

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Returning to the trading schedule, we see upward jumps, whether the news was positive, I would not say, because in general terms, nothing has changed. It can even be said that it has worsened. But speculators, pulling words out of context, simply decided to jump on the background.

Today, the information background will continue its development and, probably, from the European side, where everyone will try to comment on Theresa May's "new" ideas. In terms of the economic calendar, traders are waiting for the data for Britain, the business activity index in the services sector for March, where a decline is expected from 51.3 to 51.0. PMI. Statistics for the United States will be released this afternoon.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a good upward surge against the background of information flow regarding Brexit. As long as there is a speculative interest, and the pair can still grow towards 1.3220, where the earlier cluster is located. But then, on the general overheating and understanding of the information background, the reverse movement is possible.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions for the purchase of speculators can be considered at the beginning of the jump, as soon as the information arrived. Now, it is going towards the value of 1.3220.

- Positions for sale at the moment are not available. They will be considered once it is already near the value of 1,3200-1.3220, when a stop or possible stagnation appears.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that on the background of information, indicators randomly changed their interest. I do not exclude that with the reverse information flow, it can fly out today. Moreover, the indicators will also quickly replace the interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 3 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 71 points. It is likely to assume that due to the general information background, volatility will remain at a high level.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Burning forecast 04/03/2019

Brexit pressure has decreased: Theresa May is ready to make broad concessions to the opposition in Parliament. The media reports that Theresa May is ready to offer Labor to make a Brexit version - bipartisan. Conservative leader May is ready to go for the softer version of Brexit - this means that, to a large extent, Britain will remain inside the EU.

More information will arrive at noon.

EURUSD: The rate did not reach 8 points to a long-term low of 1.1175 and sharply turned upward.

It is very likely that a large upward movement begins.

We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1255

Alternative: Sell from 1.1175

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 3. Theresa May again asks the EU to postpone the UK exit date

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound strengthened yesterday on the news that the UK could avoid a hard scenario on Brexit after May said she would ask the EU for another delay. At the moment, it is best to expect long positions after a correction to the first support level, which is seen in the support area of 1.3109. It is best to buy from there provided that there is a false breakdown. Long rebound positions can be opened from a larger low of 1.3071 or from the lower border of the side channel of 1.3030. The main task of the bulls will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3165, which will lead to a high of 1.3212, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

It is possible to consider short positions on the pound after updating the first resistance level in the area of 1.3165, but under the condition that a false breakdown is formed there. Bigger sellers are likely to show themselves around the resistance level of 1.3212. The main task for the first half of the day will be to return and consolidate below the support level of 1.3109, which will lead to a bigger sale in the area of 1.3071 and 1.3030, where I recommend to lock in the profit. However, this scenario will be more likely when a weak report on the services sector in the UK is released or after the appearance of negative news related to Brexit.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3035 will lead to selling the pound. Growth will be limited by the middle border of the indicator in the region of 1.3100 and the upper border in the area of 1.3160.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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BITCOIN Analysis for April 3, 2019

Bitcoin managed to extend a rally towards the psychological level of $5,000 recently. The price is firmly trading with the bullish momentum along the way. BTC is currently holding at near $5,000 being supported the dynamic levels along the way.

After the recent $100 million of investment in US Bitcoin exchanges, the cryptocurrency has shown remarkable growth with the price breach above the recent highs. The price even reached the area of $5,000. BTC is currently being supported by Tenkan line as closer support and 20 EMA & Kijun line as medium-term support. Though on the MACD perspective, certain bearish divergence is likely to develope, trading above $4,500 with a daily close indicates further bullish momentum in the coming days.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 3. The euro has slightly strengthened, returning to the last side channel

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's weak US data once again led to the strengthening of the US dollar, but then euro buyers rejuvenated. In the Asian session, the bulls managed to return to the resistance level of 1.1215, and as long as trade is conducted above this range, we can expect the upward correction to continue, which could lead to an update of highs around 1.1244 and 1.1269, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a re-return scenario below the support level of 1.1215 in the first half of the day, long positions can be returned after the test of a low of 1.1186 or to rebound from a larger support of 1.1149.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The bears are required to return to the support level of 1.1215, and weak data on the service sector in the eurozone can provide support. In this scenario, the pressure on the euro will increase, which will lead to an update of yesterday's low around 1.1186 and a possible test of the area of 1.1149, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of the EUR/USD's further upward correction, you can count on selling in case of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1244 or on a rebound from a more significant level of 1.1269.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted just above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a slight advantage for euro buyers.

Bollinger bands

In case the euro declines in the morning, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.1186.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Positive wind blew again from China

Once again, the publication of strong economic data from China has cheered the financial markets. Caixin's business service index (PMI) March values announced today showed markedly greater growth than was predicted.

It seems that the incentive measures renewed by the Chinese authorities to support the national economy have borne fruit. How long will they turn out to be? Time will tell but for now, the markets have responded positively to Caixin PMI data published today, which showed an increase of 54.4 points in March against the 51.1 point in February with the increase forecast of 52.3 points. On this wave, equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region traded in positive territory. Such positive sentiment will most likely be passed on to trading floors in Europe. In any case, futures on European stock indices show a strong positive trend.

But on Tuesday, the mood of American investors was crumpled against the background of the publication of economic statistics from the United States, which also manifested itself in strengthening the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. Basic orders for durable goods rose less than expected, just adding 0.1% in February against expectations of a 0.3% increase and a 0.1% decrease in January.

Back at the present time, the Chinese positive will overwhelm yesterday's negative from the American, especially the markets psychologically very much want everything to go back to normal so that global economic growth continues against the backdrop of the restoration of China and the United States in China, which would allow investors to continue on the wave the remaining high volumes of liquidity to buy and buy risky assets. Likely, it will happen later.

In the wake of the likely positive sentiment today, we expect that the US dollar will remain under pressure, primarily against commodity and commodity currencies. This was supported by rising crude oil prices and rising demand for risky asset.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair remains in the range of 0.7055-0.7145 while it returns to its upper boundary against the background of strong economic statistics from the United States. If the pair holds above the level of 0.7100, it can continue to rise to 0.7145.

The USD/CAD pair resumed its decline in the wake of the strengthening of crude oil prices and overall positive markets. We consider it possible to sell the pair with the target of 1.3250 if it overcomes the mark of 1.3300.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 2, 2019

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We are looking for guidance of the next larger move. As the trend remains up, we do favor a break above resistance at 146.51 for more upside pressure towards 148.50 and 151.50.

That said, key-support at 143.82 will need to protect the downside to keep the bias towards the upside. An unexpected break below 143.82 will shift our focus towards the downside and a move closer to 141.00.

R3: 146.95

R2: 146.50

R1: 145.68

Pivot: 145.20

S1: 144.83

S2: 144.51

S3: 143.82

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 144.45 or upon a break above 146.51 and place our stop at 143.70.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 2, 2019

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As long as resistance at 125.01 and more importantly as long as resistance at 126.18 is able to cap the upside, we will continue to look for a dip closer to 120.95 before the ongoing correction is viewed complete and a turn higher through resistance at 126.18 should be expected.

Support is currently seen at 124.14 and a break below here, will add downside pressure towards 12123.65 on the way lower towards 120.95

R3: 125.27

R2: 124.95

R1: 124.75

Pivot: 124.56

S1: 124.12

S2: 123.75

S3: 123.37

Trading recommendation:

We remain short EUR from 124.25 with our stop placed at 126.20.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 3, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, technical analysis indicates an upward movement.The first upper target of 1.3179 is the pullback level of 50% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, technical analysis indicates an upward movement. The first upper target of 1.3179 is the pullback level of 50% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EURUSD for April 3, 2019

The bullish divergence in EURUSD 4 hour is playing out. EURUSD is bouncing off the 1.12 level and we continue to expect prices to bounce higher specially if short-term resistance at 1.1250 is broken.

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Red line - major resistance trend line

Blue lines - bullish divergence

Green line -support trend line

EURUSD has provided some important bullish divergence signs that was a warning for EURUSD bears as we noted in our previous analysis. EURUSD has the potential to rise towards 1.13-1.1340 area. Short-term trend is being challenged to change from bearish to bullish. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.14. Confirmation of a medium-term trend change will come with a close above 1.1450. Short-term we expect price to bounce higher.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for April 3, 2019

Gold price bounced off support yesterday at $1,285 to $1,293. Short-term trend remains bearish and as long as price remains below $1,300 there is still danger of seeing a sharp decline to $1,250-60 or lower.

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Green rectangle - major support area

Red rectangles - targets

Blue rectangle -resistance

Red line - long-term support trend line

Gold price holds above the major support area of $1,290-$1,280. Bouncing off this level is expected but bulls will need to break above the resistance at $1,324.50 in order to hope for a bigger move higher towards $1,350-60. If support at the green rectangle area fails to hold, Gold will be expected to move lower towards $1,250-60 at least. The RSI is providing some bullish divergence signs, so it is most probable to see a bounce towards $1,300 than break support right away.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Delaying Brexit: May's Brussels voyage will not be an easy walk

Yesterday, the British currency paired with the dollar not only played all the losses, but also consolidated in the 31st figure, gradually approaching the first resistance level of 1.3060, where the Bollinger Bands middle line of the daily chart coincides with the Kijun-sen line. Overcoming this resistance will make it possible for buyers to head for the next price stronghold of 1.3340 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands), while the Ichimoku indicator will generate a bullish "Parade of lines" signal, in which all its lines are below the price. But it's too early to talk about it: the pound reacted only to the statement of the British side, whereas for a full recovery of the GBP/USD, an appropriate confirmation of Brussels is necessary.

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By and large, yesterday's events were fairly predictable. After three failed votes on the deal, as well as after Parliament's rejection to almost 10 Brexit alternatives, Theresa May had only two ways: either agree to withdraw from the EU without an agreement, or ask Europe for another delay. There was also a third option - try again to make a three-fold rejected deal to the House of Commons, but this scenario was initially unlikely, since the number of opponents of the prime minister's deputies amounts to dozens — too big a gap to expect an unexpected victory.

The option of a hard Brexit is also not among the priority ones: the time has passed when the prime minister used frightening tactics: either you support my draft of the deal, or you plunge the country into chaos. The political bluff did not have the desired effect - the members of the House of Commons along with this choice, did not vote for the proposed agreement. Therefore, May did not "play on the nerves", waiting until the last moment (conditionally until April 9), in order to submit the draft of her deal to Parliament again. Too much risk of a failure, and no one wants a real attack on hard Brexit - neither the Parliament, nor the prime minister, nor Brussels.

Through an exclusion method, one could come to the conclusion that Theresa May would choose the most obvious algorithm of further actions. London needs more time and the chaotic Brexit is not needed, so the prime minister will again ask the European Union to postpone the "X hour". In order to somehow diversify her argument, she suggested that Labor's leader, Jeremy Corbyn, sit down at the negotiating table and work out a joint approach to Brexit, who would arrange for both the Conservatives and the Laborites. In my opinion, this is obviously a losing idea, since the Laborites are quite successful in increasing their rating by criticizing their opponents, who have not been able to realize the will of their supporters for almost three years. Corbyn repeatedly urged May to dissolve Parliament and hold extraordinary elections in the country or to hold a second referendum on Brexit. It is hard to imagine that after a flurry of mutual criticism, the parties will work out a single document that will unite the interests of the Labor Party, the Conservatives and the Europeans.

However, yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn agreed to hold talks with Teresa May in order "to avoid a hard Brexit, which may come next week." Although the overall outcome of these talks is a bit predictable, today is more important: the British prime minister has received a coherent reason for a further delay of Brexit.

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However, the decision of the British side is only one part of the Marlezon ballet. Here it is worth recalling the difficulty with which May "snatched" the last reprieve, given the categorical position of the French. Therefore, the prime minister's Brussels voyage will not be an easy walk, and the reaction of Europe may disappoint GBP/USD bulls. Elections to the European Parliament will take place in May, so Brussels can put a condition: either you agree on the deal, conditionally until April 19, or you take part in the elections and retain membership in the EU for at least a year. In other words, the European side can give London a very short time for internal negotiations of the British. There is also a tougher scenario: Brussels will initially force Britain to postpone Brexit until 2020, in order to hold pan-European elections and leisurely think about the next steps.

Thus, the optimism of GBP/USD traders looks too premature: the risk of a "hard" Brexit is still there and will continue until Europe says "yes" to London, postponing the date of the country's exit from the EU. In this case, the pair can really grow to the next resistance level of 1.3340 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily timeframe). If Brussels shows its obstinate nature, the pound will roll back down to the nearest support level of 1.2990 (the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com