Fundamental Analysis of AUDUSD for January 24, 2019

AUD/USD is currently drifting lower towards 0.7000-50 support area after being rejected off the 0.7200 with corrections and volatility. Despite a positive employment reports from Australia today, AUD failed to regain momentum over USD which is also facing some headwinds like the government shutdown and soft economic results.

Today Australia's Employment Change report was published with a decrease to 21.6k which was better than the forecast for a 17.3k decline, down from the previous figure of 39.0k. Besides, Unemployment Rate edged down to 5.0%, better than the forecast with the flat reading of 5.1%. Though the employment change report was better than expected, it nearly decreased by 50% from the previous figure which hurt the economy to a certain extent. The Reserve Bank of Australia is currently in a neutral phase. Traders are anticipating Q4 inflation report which is due next week. Economists foresee a faster consumer inflation which could lead to a rate cut in the future.

On the USD side, US economic growth has been already affected by the longest government shutdown in the US history. The probability of recession in the US in the next 12 months is assessed at 20% like last month. The chance of recession in next two years is around 40%. According to Michael Morgan, the overheated economy in the US and unstable inflation rates alongside monetary policy tightening may undermine momentum in not-too-distant future. Recently US Existing Home Sales report was published with a decrease to 4.99M from the previous figure of 5.33M which was expected to be at 5.27M and HPI remained unchanged at 0.4% which was expected to decrease to 0.3%. Today US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected have a negative result of an increase to 219k from the previous figure of 213k, Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 53.5 from the previous figure of 53.8, Flash Services PMI is expected to decrease to 54.0 from the previous figure of 54.4, and CB Leading Index is expected to decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, USD is gaining momentum over AUD that is expected to be quite short-lived as AUD is propped up by decent economic data. The pair is expected to regain momentum consistently after a pullback along the way.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently going lower towards 0.7000-50 support area quite impulsively. The price is expected to bounce off that area with a target towards 0.7200 again in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.70 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.6850, 0.7000-50

RESISTANCE: 0.7200, 0.7350

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Another reason, or why the dollar will continue to rise against the euro

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The dollar received another reason for growth and jumped above the five-week high against the euro after the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, said that economic risks shifted to the downside, and short-term data is likely to be weaker than previously thought.

Recall, the ECB left its monetary policy unchanged, as expected, maintaining the intention to raise rates at the end of this year, even though the eurozone economy is experiencing the most serious slowdown in the last half-century. The euro fell 0.45 percent against the dollar and is trading at 1.1329 dollars. Those who have only recently predicted the strengthening of the single European currency to $ 1.2 will be advised to be patient, perhaps for the next two years.

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While the euro-optimists are preparing for a breakthrough, the European currency fell to 1.1308 dollars, the weakest exchange rate since December 17. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against the euro, the yen, sterling, and three other currencies, rose by 0.33 percent, to 96.439 percentage points.

Even after the recent fall and the generally tense situation on the global financial arena, the dollar remains a tough nut to crack. Fundamental indicators do say that the "American" is overbought and overvalued, but even in this situation, there is no alternative to the dollar. Other major currencies, with the exception of the yen, are under even more serious pressure, which means the dollar will continue to stay on top.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 24, 2019

Bitcoin has been trading sideways between $3,500 and $3,600 for a few days in a row. The price is currently residing at the edge of $3,600 area, but yet to break above it with a daily close. The Kumo Cloud resistance is quite wider above $3,800-$4,000 which is expected to act as strong resistance for the price while pushing higher in the future. The dynamic levels in the daily chart are also higher than the price formation which is expected to work as resistance as well. As for the current price formation, BTC is likely to trade higher, but the path towards $4,000 area will not be easy because of several resistance levels which should be broken first before the price can establish a strong impulsive bullish trend. As the price remains above $3,000, the bullish bias is expected to continue, though with minor downward corrections and higher volatility along the way.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500

RESISTANCE: 3,600, 4,000, 4,250,

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Dollar is in no hurry to sign up as an outsider, path to easing promises to be thorny

According to analysts Saxo Bank, the movement towards a weaker dollar may gain momentum if the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will have to completely change its course due to the slowdown of the American and global economies in the foreseeable future.

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"The Fed seems to gradually come to understand the reality, in which the crackdown and a strong dollar are less consistent with financial stability, it is not surprising that the beginning of 2019 was marked by a sharp shift in the rhetoric of the regulator," representatives of the financial institute said.

"However, the Fed may still take a long time to fully unfold the course, and the lack of reasons for optimism in the global economy can make the path to a steady weak dollar in 2019 rather thorny. The difficulty lies in the fact that greenback and US national debt are the most liquid instruments in times of global instability, "they added.

"If we are moving towards a further decline in world markets, primarily due to concerns about a slowdown in global and American GDP growth, it is possible that the dollar exchange rate will make sharp jumps from time to time," noted Saxo Bank currency strategies.

According to experts, the tactical right decision in such circumstances seems to be the transfer of capital into instruments with greater protective properties than the dollar. In particular, the Japanese yen can claim this role.

Meanwhile, according to a consensus forecast of economists recently surveyed by Bloomberg, the main favorite among the G10 currencies in 2019 may be the Norwegian krone, which is expected to strengthen against the dollar by more than 9%. If over the past few years, the difference in the courses of the Fed and the Norwegian Bank played into the hands of the "American", the situation may change radically this year, which will allow us to expect a decrease in the USD / NOK pair to 8.2.

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Control zones of USD/CAD pair 01/24/19

After a two-week exit beyond the monthly CZ of January, the pair returned to its limits, which indicates the need to keep open purchases and consider new ones in the event of a decline.

The upward movement of the pair is a weekly impulse. The fixation above 1/2 CZ of 1.3290-1.3279 allowed to open a long position. Yesterday's testing of 1/4 CZ of 1.3307-1.3302 made it possible for those who work more conservatively to enter. The purpose of the growth is the weekly CZ of 1.3402-1..3382. Achieving this zone will allow you to close most of the purchases and consider the option of forming a reversal model in the event of a large offer.

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Purchases from current levels are not profitable, since the model is already realized by 90%. On the higher timeframe, the downward movement still remains a long-term impulse.

An alternative model should be considered in case the pair can break through and consolidate above the level of 1.3402 at one of the US sessions. This allows considering of a medium-term change of movement to ascending. The probability of implementing this model is 30%, thus, without confirmation of the purchase at the highs of the current week are an unprofitable investment.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP / USD pair: a plan for the American session on January 24. Optimism regarding Brexit fades away, as does the British

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

As expected, the buyers failed to maintain the demand for the British pound and keep the morning support level of 1.3064, to which I paid attention. Optimism regarding the Brexit deal is gradually fading away and at the moment it is best to consider long positions after forming a false breakdown around 1.3013 or to rebound from a larger area of 1.2950. However, in order to save the uptrend, it is best to return to the resistance level of 1.3064, above which the highs of 1.3127 and 1.3177 will be available.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Bears coped with the morning task of returning to the level of 1.3127, which expectedly led to the sale of the pound and the test of support at 1.3013. In the second half of the day, a breakthrough of this range is also required, which will strengthen the downward impulse and will lead to a minimum of 1.2950 and 1.2894, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of an upward trend in the second half of the day, one can take a closer look at sales at the next unsuccessful consolidation above 1.3064 or at a rebound from the maximum of 1.3127.

More in the video forecast for January 24

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving, which indicates a possible change in the bull trend.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a pound increase, sales can be viewed from the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3064 or to rebound from the upper border in the area of 1.3100.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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ECB: ECB leaves rates unchanged and is ready to reinvest profits from QE

Weak data, released in the eurozone in the first half of the day, pushed the European currency together with the US dollar. Particularly alarming for the manufacturing sector in Germany, whose index pointed to a slowdown in growth rates of activity.

According to the data, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector in Germany in January 2019 fell below the key level of 50 points. Although the data are preliminary, this state of affairs indicates a decrease in activity in the sector.

As stated in the IHS Markit report, in January this year, the German manufacturing PMI was 49.9 points. The main pressure on the index came from the situation with new orders, as well as the weakness of the automotive industry.

The preliminary PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector in France in January of this year, on the contrary, increased and managed to pass over the mark of 50 points, reaching 51.2 points. Back in December 2018, the index was at the level of 49.7. Economists had expected the index to not exceed the level of growth and will be at around 49.9 points.

As for the same indicator for the euro area as a whole, the report shows that the economy continues to slow down at the beginning of this year, which will certainly be noted at the press conference of the President of the European Central Bank, which will be held this afternoon.

According to the submitted IHS Markit data, the composite index of PMI supply managers in the eurozone, which includes an indicator of activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector, in January 2019 fell to 50.7 points from 51.1 points in December. Let me remind you that the index value below 50 indicates a decrease in activity.

The preliminary PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the Eurozone manufacturing sector in January fell to 50.5 points from 51.4 points in December.

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Today, it also became known that the European Central Bank left the refinancing rate unchanged, at the level of 0.0%. The deposit rate also remained at the same negative level of -0.40%. The ECB expects rates to remain at current levels for at least this summer inclusive. The European regulator also assured that it would completely reinvest the profits from QE over a long period after the first rate increase, which again upset traders who are putting more of a more aggressive monetary policy tightening.

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Control zones of NZD / USD pair 01/24/19

The growth of the pair again led to the test of the monthly control zone of January. This suggests the possibility of closing all buy positions made at the beginning of the current week. The option with the formation of a reversal model comes to the fore.

Now, a controversial situation is formed. The pair has been a reversal growth model in the recent timeframe, however, it happened this month, which may impede further growth. In such moments, it is recommended to use the timeframe. The price is 70%. This must be considered when building a trading plan. This must be considered when building a trading plan.

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Going beyond the monthly CZ will increase the probability of a downward model forming up to 90%. Therefore, the implementation of an upward intraday upward impulse will not give the necessary advantage in the distance.

An alternative growth model may continue, but opening a long position from current levels is no longer profitable. The best option is to find a false breakdown when updating the weekly high, which will allow you to find good prices to open a short position. It is important to understand that in order to complete a transaction, the formation of an absorption pattern is imperative.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for January 24

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we expect further downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 1.1337 - 1.1321, and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we are following the upward structure from January 15 and we expect further upward movement after the breakdown of 1.3118. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is in the correction zone from the rising structure on January 10 and we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of the level of 0.9984. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the upward trend continuation is expected after the breakdown of 109.81. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the development of a pronounced upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.50.

Forecast for January 24:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1376, 1.1358, 1.1337, 1.1321, 1.1291 and 1.1266. Here, we consider the downward cycle of January 10 as the main trend. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1337 - 1.1321 and the breakdown of the latter value will allow you to count on the movement to the level of 1.1291. From this value, there is a high probability of turning upwards. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1266, which is the limit value for the downward cycle.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1358 - 1.1376 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1404 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown price will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the target is 1.1428.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1358 Take profit: 1.1374

Buy 1.1378 Take profit: 1.1404

Sell: 1.1320 Take profit: 1.1294

Sell: 1.1288 Take profit: 1.1266

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3245, 1.3197, 1.3118, 1.3024, 1.2981, 1.2934 and 1.2900. Here, we are following the local ascending structure of January 15th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3118. In this case, the target is 1.3197 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3245, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3024 - 1.2981 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2934 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.2900.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3118 Take profit: 1.3195

Buy: 1.3198 Take profit: 1.3245

Sell: 1.3022 Take profit: 1.2985

Sell: 1.2978 Take profit: 1.2935

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0065, 1.0034, 0.9984, 0.9930, 0.9906, 0.9874 and 0.9847. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of January 10. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9984. In this case, the target is 1.0034. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0065, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9930 - 0.9906 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9874 and this level is the key support for the ascending structure. Its breakdown will lead to a movement to the level of 0.9847.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9986 Take profit: 1.0032

Buy: 1.0035 Take profit: 1.0065

Sell: 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9904 Take profit: 0.9880

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 110.33, 110.07, 109.81, 109.48, 109.26, 108.98 and 108.60. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the upward structure on 10 January. We continue the upward movement after the breakdown of 109.81. In this case, the target is 110.07 and we consider the level of 110.33 as a potential value for the uptrend, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a downward rollback.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 109.48 - 109.26. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.98 and this level is the key support. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the goal is 108.60.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 10, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.81 Take profit: 110.05

Buy: 110.08 Take profit: 110.30

Sell: 109.46 Take profit: 109.26

Sell: 109.24 Take profit: 109.00

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3424, 1.3405, 1.3371, 1.3332, 1.3314 and 1.3281. Here, we are following the rising structure of January 11th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3371. In this case, the target is 1.3405. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3424, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3332 - 1.3314 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3281 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3371 Take profit: 1.3405

Buy: 1.3407 Take profit: 1.3422

Sell: 1.3332 Take profit: 1.3316

Sell: 1.3310 Take profit: 1.3290

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7143, 0.7121, 0.7107, 0.7107, 0.7091, 0.7076, 0.7050 and 0.7036. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of January 17. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7091 - 0.7076 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 0.7050. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.7036, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7107 - 0.7121 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7143 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7107 Take profit: 0.7120

Buy: 0.7123 Take profit: 0.7141

Sell: 0.7087 Take profit: 0.7076

Sell: 0.7073 Take profit: 0.7050

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, the price is in equilibrium. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 25.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 123.74 - 123.05 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 122.03, up to this level, we expect clearance of the expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

Sell: 123.05 Take profit: 122.10

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 146.68, 145.74, 144.44, 143.91, 142.69, 142.12 and 141.37. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 15. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 143.91 - 144.44 and we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 144.50. In this case, the target is 145.74 and near this level, there is price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 146.68, from which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.69 - 142.12 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 141.37 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.91 Take profit: 144.40

Buy: 144.50 Take profit: 145.70

Sell: 142.69 Take profit: 142.15

Sell: 142.08 Take profit: 141.40

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 24. Euro may remain under pressure

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Buyers are clearly leaving the market before the meeting of the European Central Bank. While the intermediate support is provided by the lower limit of the side channel at 1.1339, after its test, there is no demand for European currency as we can see on the chart. Everything will depend on the statements made by the President of the ECB. In the case of a breakout and decline scenario of the euro below the level of 1.1339, it is best to return to long positions after testing the minimums of 1.1307 and 1.1272. The main task of buyers for the second half of the day will be a return to the resistance level of 1.1376 with an update of the maximum of 1.1411. In this scenario, you can count on a larger upward correction in euros as early as next week.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

After the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, a repeated test and breakthrough of 1.1339 level will be a signal to open short positions in EUR / USD with access to new minima in the area of 1.1307 and 1.1272, where I recommend to take profits. An unsuccessful return to the resistance level of 1.1376 in the second half of the day may also lead to another euro sale. In the event that Draghi signals to maintain the monetary policy rate, the euro may rise. In this scenario, it is better to return to short positions from the highs of 1.1411 and 1.1451.

More in the video forecast for January 24

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will Draghi drop the euro below $ 1.13?

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Today, the currency pair EUR / USD is waiting for the news of the ECB meeting and the press conference of Mario Draghi, who is unlikely to inspire optimism in the single currency. However, it is worth noting that the euro strengthened against the dollar for the first time in almost two weeks, but growth is more like not the beginning of a positive trend, but rather the result of closing short positions.

The main financial figures of Europe, who spoke in recent weeks, were unanimous in their opinion. The euro zone's economy is growing more and more slowly. ECB members also expressed concern about the downside risks. Probably the same will be said by Mario Draghi at the press conference. The point here is not only that the economy has lost momentum to growth, but a "tough" Brexit can also become a serious threat to the recovery of the region, for which no one has yet canceled the scenario.

Draghi earlier commented on the latest data on the Euro block, calling them weaker than expected. In the current non-ideal conditions (especially from global risks), substantial incentives are needed, since the slowdown may be delayed, the head of the regulator added.

If labor market activity and spending in Germany have improved, but inflation, manufacturing activity, and entrepreneurial activity slow down. Therefore, the tone of Mario Draghi at the press conference will undoubtedly be "soft." It will demonstrate concern, emphasize the need for continued incentives, and reduce expectations for higher rates.

If the Central Bank declines growth or inflation forecasts and focuses Draghi on slow economic recovery, the EUR / USD rate risks falling to 1.12. The pair may recover to 1.1450 when Draghi tries to find a balance between a cautious forecast and optimism, which comes from strong spending and labor market activity.

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Societe Generale believes that if the US economy does not slow down, the currency pair EUR / USD will approach 1.1. Goldman Sachs experts, on the contrary, see a growth rate of up to 1.17, because the US looks even less advantageous. Business activity is rolling with perennial peaks, the economy is also tilting. The situation is aggravated by the longest government shutdown in history, which will subtract 0.3 pp from GDP in the first quarter, Reuters calculated. As a result, the economy in annual terms will expand by 2.1% in the first quarter, by 2.3% in the second, and by the end of the year, it will slow to 1.9%.

Meanwhile, the 34th day of the Shutdown is coming, the battle in the White House is gaining momentum. Donald Trump intends to send a message to the nation next week, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused to participate in the preparation of the event while the government is idle. On all, it is clear that the pressure in the relationship of Trump and Pelosi is not reduced, but the dollar is indifferent to this skirmish.

Today, the Senate will vote on the latest proposal of the US President and the short-term bill on expenditures from the Democrats, which contributes to the launch of the government before February 8. However, the Shutdown may continue, since neither side has a majority. Most likely, the voting will fail, but if at least one passes, the dollar will soar.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 24, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted Flag Channel (In red).

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term uptrend (In blue) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

This renders the recent bullish breakout above 1.1420 and 1.1520 as a false breakout. Hence, any bullish pullback towards 1.1420 can be considered as a valid SELL entry for intraday traders.

The current bearish consolidations below the key-level of 1.1400 encourages a deeper decline down to 1.1250 as the initial target provided that the minor uptrend line located around 1.1350 gets broken to the downside early.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for H4 bearish breakdown below 1.1350 (short-term uptrend in BLUE) as a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1310, 1.1270 and 1.1225. S/L to be located above 1.1420.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar is doomed to be strong

On January 28, the Congressional Budget Office will issue an annual forecast for the economy and budget for the period to 2029. In light of the upcoming debates on the national debt ceiling and the continued shutdown of the government due to the fact that the budget for the 2019 fiscal year has not been adopted, an assessment of the prospects for filling the budget and servicing the public debt, since the monetary policy of the Fed will depend directly on the key parameters of the state of the US economy.

Despite the fact that the volume of US government debt exceeded 21 trillion, its service, according to calculations, is not burdening for the budget. The cost of servicing public debt depends on the gap between the real interest rate on debt and the rate of income growth. If US incomes grow faster, then interest payments on debt are not a serious burden for the budget. The graph shows a measure of the cost of debt service (blue line), and it is in negative territory, that is, according to official statistics, the growth rate of real GDP per capita is ahead of the Fed's normalization policy.

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At the expense of what GDP growth rates remain high? It's not at all due to the Trump administration's new policy, since the real economy has been degrading since the autumn of 2014. This moment is well tracked by the ratio of the cost of intermediate goods in the industrial sector to total income (red line). In other words, the growth of real GDP, which allows servicing public debt, completely depends on growth in other sectors of the economy, real estate, insurance, finance, which largely depend on the stability of the dollar and its relevance at the global level.

From here you can make a simple conclusion, despite the declared goal of re-industrializing the United States and achieving the growth of all key indicators of the economy when this plan is implemented, the Trump administration is doomed to preserve the global role of the dollar. That is why the trade war with China cannot be resolved on the basis of supporting imports from the United States, that is, even China's readiness to increase imports by 1 trillion over 6 years to correct the trade balance will not have a noticeable effect on the budget's ability to service the growing debt. This effect can only have the preservation of the dominant role of the dollar in world trade, which can not be saved if the dollar begins a serious weakening against a basket of currencies.

The dollar, therefore, is unlikely to begin to decline, even if the Fed revises its rate targets. A similar scenario will suit both Europe and China, which will be forced to restrain the strengthening of their currencies in the face of the threat of a global slowdown in the global economy.

Eurozone

The euro is trading neutral before a key meeting of the ECB. The last benchmarks, which can influence the position of the bank, turned out to be more negative than neutral - the composite PMI index for the eurozone has previously been reduced from 51.1p to 50.7p, which is a 66-month minimum.

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Prospects for the euro on the basis of the meeting will be assessed by changing the balance of risks to the eurozone economy. If there is a downward revision, it will inevitably cause a revision of the euro's prospects also downward, if the risks remain "balanced", the euro will respond with growth. As long as EUR / USD looks neutral, an out of 1.1335 / 95 range will be formed after the meeting.

Great Britain

The British pound continues to receive support after Theresa May managed to keep her post after a failed parliamentary vote. Keeping control over the government and eliminating the threat of repeated elections increases the likelihood that additional negotiations with the EU can be held on Brexit or even a repeated referendum.

Until January 28, the pound will continue to be in demand against the background of risk reduction, but this demand cannot be considered sustainable. All the same, facts, not expectations, play the decisive role. GBP / USD got too strong resistance of 1.3090 / 3110, a probable breakdown of this zone will open the way to the November maximum of 1.3170.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of GBP / JPY for January 24

Large-scale graphics:

Over the past year, a downward wave has been formed on the graph, setting the main direction of short-term cross movements.

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Medium scale graphics:

The descending section of November 8 completes the wave structure of the D1 scale. To date, the coincidence of several factors at once indicates a high probability of the completion of this wave.

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Small-scale graphics:

The ascending segment of January 3 is formed as an impulse. A wave of incorrect correction originated in the structure of the movement a week ago. From the nearest resistance is expected to decline.

Forecast and recommendations:

The current price increase with high probability will give rise to a new short-term trend of the cross. At the end of counter drops, it is recommended to look for reversal signals to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 143.80 / 144.30

Support areas:

- 141.00 / 140.50

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of AUD / USD for January 24

Large-scale graphics:

Throughout the past year, the price of "Aussie" moved down with minimal kickbacks. To date, the wave structure is not complete. In the last month, conditions have been created for the development of counter correction.

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Medium scale graphics:

The bullish wave of January 3 has a reversal potential. The wave develops according to the impulse scenario. After the end of the current descent phase, the entire movement should go to a higher wave level.

Small-scale graphics:

The descending wave from January 11 reached the upper limit of a wide zone of a potential reversal. The structure looks complete. Signal reversal is not observed.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, a change in the motion vector of the pair is expected, with a return to the ascending course. It is recommended to focus on the search for signals to buy an instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7320 / 0.7370

Support areas:

- 0.7090 / 0.7040

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 24, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 17 when significant bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2999 (Bearish Engulfing candlestick around the downtrend line).

This paused the bullish scenario for a while, allowing sometime for bearish correction towards 1.2830 where another bullish swing was initiated. The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating above the price level of 1.3000.

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above the price level of 1.3000 (The previous Weekly High) should be maintained on a daily basis.

Bullish persistence above 1.3000 enhances further bullish advancement initially towards 1.3155 (Depicted Supply level). Otherwise, any bearish decline below 1.3000 invalidates the bullish scenario for the short-term.

This may bring the GBP/USD pair again into bearish correction that may extend down towards 1.2800 (Nearest Demand Level).

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be waiting for a deeper bearish pullback towards 1.2800 (Prominent Demand Level in BLUE) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.2870, 1.2920 and 1.3060. Any bearish H4 closure below 1.2790 invalidates this scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: European currency movement scenarios after the European Central Bank meeting

The euro continued to trade in the side channel in tandem with the US dollar, and the pound rose on the basis of trading on Wednesday, January 23.

The lack of important statistics and today's meeting of the European Central Bank, probably makes traders take a waiting position. At today's meeting, the European regulator is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. However, the focus will be shifted to the press conference of the ECB President, at which Mario Draghi will outline the prospects for future monetary policy. It will be important that Mario Draghi's views change or not.

If the president of the ECB declares that a weaker economy will affect monetary policy in the future, the euro is likely to decline against a number of world currencies, especially when paired with the US dollar. The breakthrough of a large support level of 1.1340 will indicate a return to the market of large sellers whose goal will be the annual minima of 1.1300 and 1.1230.

If the head of the European Central Bank does not indicate the prevalence of negative risks to economic growth and classifies current problems as tactical and political situations, the demand for the euro may increase. The breakthrough of the large resistance level of 1.1410 will be a signal to return risky assets to the market, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders above this range and the update of the highs of 1.11450 and 1.1530.

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As for the US dollar, there has already been the talk of a likely slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter of this year due to the fact that the work of the US government has not resumed. This situation in the future will negatively affect the quotations of the US dollar against a number of world currencies. Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House's Council of Economic Consultants, said yesterday that the US economy would not grow in the first quarter of 2019 due to the government's shutdown. He noted that there is a tendency of weak economic growth in the 1st quarter of each year, but this year the pace may be reduced to zero.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond yesterday did not greatly affect the US dollar. According to the report, the composite production index in January 2019, although it remained at a negative level, was -2 points against -8 points in December 2018. Let me remind you that only positive value of the index indicates an increase in activity in the manufacturing sector. Economists had expected the index value in December to be -4 points.

The report on a small recovery in consumer confidence in the eurozone allowed euro buyers to return to the market for a while. According to the data, the preliminary index of consumer confidence in the eurozone in January of this year was -7.9 points against -8.3 points in December last year.

The Australian dollar collapsed against the US dollar, despite the fact that the Australian labor market in December 2018 was in fairly good shape. According to published data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate in December fell to 5.0% versus 5.1% in November. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

The number of jobs increased by 21,600, while the share of the economically active population in December decreased to 65.6% against 65.7% in November.

As for the technical picture of the AUD / USD pair, a breakthrough of the large support level in the area of 0.7100 may lead to a more prolonged downward trend with the exit to the lows of 0.7070 and 0.7040. The upward correction in the trading instrument will be limited by the resistance of 0.7140.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 01/24/2019

British parliamentarians presented a surprise once again, which turned into a confident growth of the pound, which pulled along the single European currency. The fact is that yesterday it became known about the possible legislative ban of Brexit without a deal with the European Union. In other words, if the British Parliament does not accept an agreement with Europe, the output is delayed until they are offered a more interesting version of the agreement. Of course, this raises many questions to the extent that Europe itself can exclude Great Britain from the European Union within the framework of existing legislation and based on a procedure that has long been launched. And what can I say, if the British Parliament decides to adopt such an amendment to the law, it is more like a blackmail like give us an agreement that will suit us.

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Today, all the attention are on the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank Board Committee and the subsequent press conference of Mario Draghi. In fact, investors expect that they will be called terms of raising the refinancing rate, but most likely, they will be disappointed. Given the recent decline in inflation, the ECB will remain cautious and Mario Draghi will confine himself to assurances that in late spring the regulator will begin to discuss this issue. This will have a negative impact on both the single European currency and the pound.

The euro/dollar currency pair continues to show low volatility but still maintaining a common downward sentiment. It is likely to assume that the bearish interest will continue where a local minimum of 1.1336 stands before the quotation, where the price will be directed.

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The pound/dollar currency pair draws out pulse candles, reaching a value of 1.3093 and overcoming a number of important levels. It is likely to assume that a rollback to the psychological level of 1.3000 is possible at the current situation.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 24th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". For how many years will Brexit last?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 145.2824

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, January 24, continues to grow steadily and overcame Murray's level of 6/8 - 1.3062. As we have repeatedly written, now we should not look for the reasons for the strengthening of the pound sterling. There are no pronounced reasons. It is recommended to simply follow the trend, especially since he is confident. Yesterday it was reported that if the parliament does not approve Theresa May's proposal for Brexit by the end of February, the British MPs will initiate a postponement of the country's withdrawal from the EU. Thus, something that a year ago nobody expected could happen. It will be just a postponement of the exit date from the TC, and it will be possible to negotiate with the EU for another couple of years. That is, as it turns out in practice, no one is particularly in a hurry to complete this "divorce". The "hard" version of Brexit does not suit anyone, remaining in the EU does not want the current government (but it may want the following if Theresa May still leaves his post), and the "soft" version of Brexit does not approve of the UK Parliament, considering that there are too many concessions to the EU. And the European Union does not want new negotiations, believing that it offered London the best possible conditions. The stalemate, which can now drag a couple of years. The pound simply stopped responding to this kind of information.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move up. Therefore, purchase orders with targets at 1.3123 and 1.3184 are relevant now. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal a manual reduction of long positions.

Orders for sale will become relevant not earlier than overcoming the moving average line. The initiative, in this case, will pass into the hands of bears, and the first target for the downward movement will be the level of 1.2878.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 24th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". ECB meeting may not bring anything new

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -61.6775

On Thursday, January 24, the currency pair EUR / USD rebounded from Murray's level of "2/8" - 1.1353 and began to correct. Today for the euro currency is quite an important day. Yesterday, the pair managed to finally get out of the weakest semi-flat movements. Today, the results of the ECB meeting will be announced, and this event cannot be called minor. But its essence and the results of the meeting can be extremely predictable and may not cause any serious market reaction. The fact is that no changes in monetary policy are foreseen, which means that the only thing that will attract the attention of traders is the press conference of the ECB. And then everything will depend on the rhetoric of Draghi and company. Although even at this point one can make the assumption that the rhetoric will remain "pigeon". EU macroeconomic indicators have recently shown negative trends, especially GDP and inflation, so the head of the regulator has no reason to be tough. If this is the case, the Euro currency may again be under pressure from the market. From a technical point of view, there can be a rebound from the MA, with a resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to be adjusted. Thus, it is recommended to open new short positions in case of a downward reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator with targets at 1.1353 and 1.1292.

Buy positions will become relevant if traders overcome the moving average with the first goal of 1.1414. Senior linear regression channel can support an upward trend.

In addition to the technical picture,you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for January 24. Three bear divergence, one bullish

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD, after the formation of a third consecutive bullish divergence, nevertheless performed a reversal in favor of the euro currency and started the growth process in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.1446. However, on January 24, there was already a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, which allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of the fall. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of continuing to fall towards the level of 1.1269.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the process of falling quotations continues in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Rebounding the pair from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Maturing divergences in the current chart are not observed in any indicator. Closing quotes below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the chances for a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the currency pair EUR / USD can be made with a target of 1.1446 and a Stop Loss order under the level of 23.6% if the pair completes the last peak of the bearish divergence.

Sales of the currency pair EUR / USD can be made with the target of 1.1269 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 23.6% if the pair closes below the level of 1.1358.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for January 24th. The pound can roll back down

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart completed growth to the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.3098. The release of quotations from this Fibo level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2970. January 24, the bearish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator. The education will increase the likelihood of a pair rebound from the Fibo level of 76.4%. Closing above this level will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.3300.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair completed a close above the Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.3049, however, on the 4-hour chart, the release is possible and bearish divergence is possible. As a result, the pair on the current chart can turn in favor of the US dollar right now. Closing quotes below the Fibo level of 161.8% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of a pair fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2916.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair GBP / USD can be made with the target of 1.3192 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 76.4% if the pair closes above the level of 1.3094 (4-hour chart).

Sales of the currency pair GBP / USD can be carried out with the target of 1.2970 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3094 (4-hour chart), especially in conjunction with the bearish divergence.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD pair on January 24, 2019

EUR / USD pair

On Wednesday, the euro rose slightly following the optimism of the British pound, although the consumer confidence index in the euro area declined from -6 to -8 in January. Also, investors are waiting for the meeting of the ECB today.

Yesterday we found no reason for optimism of Mario Draghi but with the release of information regarding the readiness of the British opposition, the Labor Party, to accept the Agreement with the EU in the current version yielded optimism. Another thing is whether the ECB's monetary policy committee will be in time to make this adjustment but it seems the answer is no, since this is only a preliminary intention of the laborer.

Today, good data are expected according to the euro area business activity. January Manufacturing PMI is projected to increase from 51.4 to 51.5 and Services PMI is expected to rise from 51.2 to 51.5. At the same time, the American Manufacturing PMI from Markit is expected to decrease from 53.8 to 53.5 and Services PMI decrease from 54.4 to 54.0. Based on a combination of factors, the euro can grow to the range of 1.1408 / 23, which was determined by the MACD lines on the daily and four-hour charts. In the case of rising prices, the Marlin oscillator signal line on a daily basis can reach the border with a growth zone from which it can turn down, forming a full signal for a decline.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets fear the start of a new economic crisis

More and more often, markets are starting to talk about impending recession in a number of economically developed countries. At the beginning of this year, such conversations arose regarding the prospects for the Japanese economy, which could not get out of economic problems, while continuing to stimulate the national economy by pouring unprecedented amounts of money into it. The sharp drop in economic growth in the wake of lower inflationary pressure in the eurozone has bothered the ECB President M. Draghi, who reported that the monetary policy of the regulator will remain soft for a considerable period of time. Against this background, the expert community started talking about the risk of an economic recession already in Europe. This week, such conversations began with respect to Canada, and the publication on Wednesday of data on retail sales in the country only reinforces such concerns.

According to the data presented, the basic index of retail sales in Canada in November fell by 0.6% against a decline for the previous period under review by 0.2% and a forecast for a decrease by 0.4%. The industrial output index also declined stronger than forecast, losing 0.9% against a 0.2% increase and expectations of a 0.6% decline.

But, despite these numbers and growing fears over the prospects for the Canadian economy, the local currency not only did not fall against the US dollar but even received some support in the wake of the stabilization of crude oil prices and still remaining hopes that they would not fall, and the trade agreement between the United States and China will keep the world economy from a new economic crisis.

Recently, the market is growing expectations that the exit of Britain from the EU will not take place in March of this year and that it can be transferred. For this reason, there is a strengthening of the sterling rate, which is completely at the mercy of Brexit. If these expectations are strengthened, then against the background of the weakness of the US dollar, the British currency may continue to rise in the short term.

Today, the most important event of the day will be the outcome of the ECB's monetary policy meeting. We do not expect its parameters to be changed. Important will be the press conference of M. Draghi. In our opinion, if he shows high concern about the growth prospects of the eurozone economy and if he again says that the monetary rate will remain soft for a long time, then the single currency may be under pressure. But, it seems to us, not so significant in tandem with the US dollar, since the extreme weakness of the latter's rate will compensate for the weakening of the euro currency.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is consolidating, remaining in the range of 1.1335-1.1400. It is likely that it will remain so in it at the end of the ECB meeting and even decrease to its lower boundary. And only if Draghi suddenly becomes optimistic, then the pair can break out of the range and rush to 1.1435, breaking the mark of 1.1400.

The currency pair GBP / USD is locally overbought and can correct down to 1.3000 after falling below 1.3050, before resuming growth to 1.3150.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on January 24, 2019

For the third day, the Japanese yen is trading on the price channel line of the daily timeframe. But all this time, the price is not going below the balance line of the four-hour timeframe. he price did not consolidate below the signal level of 109.21, but consolidates above it, respectively. We expect continued growth to the previously target of 110.54, which is the nested line in the price channel on the daily scale chart. We also see a continuation of testing the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily reversal chart from the zero line upwards in the direction of growth trend. The signal line of the oscillator on the lower four-hour chart went a little below the zero line, but in this case, the overall technical picture does not change the situation and can return to the growth zone.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 24, 2019

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Trading recommendations:

Nothing has specially changed since my yesterday's analysis. BTC has failed to reach the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign that sellers are loosing power and the demand may increase. There is also a breakout of the Pitchfork diagonal (resistance), which is another confirmation of strength. The key support at the price of $3,420 held successfully and I expect further bullish movement. I have also found a bullish cross on the Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of the potential strength.

Trading advice: We are bullish on BTC from $3,540 with the targets at $3,742 and $4,086. The protective stop is placed below $3,420.

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for January 24, 2019

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As long as the support at the price of $1,276.00 is active, I am bullish on Gold. I found a failed test of the the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign for me that sellers are not strong. The buyers showed some interest in past few days and we got strong demand bars in the background. The trend is still bullish and Gold is trading inside of the longer- term upward Pitchfork channel. Only a breakout of the support $1,275.00 would change our bullish opinion on the market.

Trading recommendations for today: We are still long on Gold from the $1,284.45 and with the protective stop at $1,275.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for January 24, 2019

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As I expected, the GBP/USD pair traded higher and met my second yesterday's target at the price of 1.3085. GBP/USD lost its bullish trend and went into the overbought condition on the Stochastic oscillator, which is a warning for buyers at this stage. The Pitchfork median line served as good resistance, and GBP found sellers from that point. The trend is still bullish, but we need patience to wait for a downward correction. Support levels are set at the price of 1.3000 and at the price of 1.2975.

Trading recommendations for today: We closed GBP/USD on both long positions and took profit of 200 pips. We are now waiting for the GBP/USD pair to correct into our support levels (1.300-1.2975) and if there is a good rejection, we will be able to buy again.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com