Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 13/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Indian telecommunications service provider Reliance Jio Infocomm Limited (known as Jio) has committed to building what it describes as one of the largest Blockchain networks in the world.

Speaking at the company's 42nd AGM on August 12, President and Managing Director Shri Mukesh D. Ambani said Blockchain technology is one of the three main areas of expansion for Jio. Since its debut in 2015, the company has become one of the main Indian mobile networks, with a current user base of over 330 million people.

"Over the next 12 months, Jio will install one of the largest Blockchain networks in the world in India, with tens of thousands of nodes operating from day one " - Ambani promised.

His comments came at a time when India is opposed to a plan to ban cryptocurrencies while supporting Blockchain technology at the state level.

External commentators have joined the angry local cryptographic industry amidst central bank warnings that interacting with unsanctioned tokens such as Bitcoin may be a criminal offense in the future

Meanwhile, Ambani focused on the role of Blockchain in strengthening the position of Indian consumers, without delving into the subject.

"Using Blockchain, we also have the opportunity to invent a completely new data privacy model in which Indian data, especially customer data, is owned and controlled by Indians rather than corporations, especially international corporations " - he said.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel around the level of $208.50 and now is trying to continue the rally higher towards the level of $221.50, which is the technical resistance. The low was made at the level of $196.98 and it was labeled as wave (c) of the wave (2) of higher degree, which indicated, the market might be ready to continue the trend. In order to do this, the price action must be more impulsive and move towards the nearest technical resistance and break through it. Otherwise, the corrective move to the downside will evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern. So far there is no sign of bullish engagement in order to regain control of the market price and the move up is starting to look like a failure. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $205.77.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $274.14

WR2 - $256.36

WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72

WS1 - $193.28

WS2 - $173.99

WS3 - $150.66

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 13/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) claimed that its digital currency "can be said to be ready."

According to the deputy director of PBoC, Mu Changchuna, the prototype that adopts Blockchain architecture was successfully developed after five years of research. His statement, made at the China Finance 40 Forum, was announced by the local news service Shanghai Securities News.

He said digital currency emission using pure Blockchain architecture is difficult to achieve in a country as large as China because retailers require high-performance concurrency.

The digital currency will also adopt a two-tier operating system to satisfy a "complex economy with a vast territory and large population." In this system, PBoC will be at a higher level and commercial banks at a lower level. According to Mu, this will improve accessibility, increase adoption rates among the public, and promote innovation among commercial entities.

According to the director of PBoC, the digital currency is designed to be suitable for "small high-frequency retail business scenarios."

As reported by Cointelegraph, PBoC plans to overtake the US and Libra Facebook by releasing domestic cryptocurrency, while US politicians are holding back the development of social network stablecoin due to regulatory concerns.

Despite Mu's optimistic comments, it is not yet clear when exactly the Chinese digital currency will be issued.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has been trading inside of the narrow range for some time now, consolidating the recent gains after the bounce from the level of $9,049. The local technical support located at the level of $11,027 has been tested during the consolidation cycle and the low of this test has been labeled as the low of the wave 2. It means the market is ready to continue the uptrend towards the new highs, but first, it will have to break out above the levels of $11,855, $12,008 and $12,269. Please notice, that the wave 2 might evolve into a more complex and time-consuming pattern, so patience is needed while keeping an eye on the wave development.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,583

WR2 - $12,879

WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389

WS1 - $10,550

WS2 - $9,816

WS3 - $9,007

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 13/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has broken out of the narrow consolidation zone to the downside and made a local low at the level of 1.2014. So far no new local low was made and the price bounced higher as the bulls are trying to defend the support. The Bears have managed to push the price towards the key long-term technical support located at the level of 1.1988 and this level is very important. The bulls might defend the support, but if the level is clearly violated without a fight, then the price will extend the drop much lower, so there must be some bullish reaction on this level, otherwise, the damage will be even worse.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2303

WR2 - 1.2249

WR1 - 1.2110

Weekly Pivot - 1.2066

WS1 - 1.1921

WS2 - 1.1875

WS3 - 1.1728

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. Please keep an eye on the key technical support located at the level of 1.1988, some kind of bounce might be expected after this level is hit.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 13/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The Bullish Pennant price pattern is clearly visible on the H4 timeframe chart at the EUR/USD pair and the market is still developing it. Pennant is the trend continuation pattern, so if the price will break out to the upside, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1250 and then 1.1345. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1167 and it can not be violated until the breakout occurs. Please notice that this time of the year the volatility might get limited due to the summer season, so it might take a while to make a breakout in this market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1325

WR1 - 1.1264

Weekly Pivot - 1.1187

WS1 - 1.1117

WS2 - 1.1041

WS3 - 1.0978

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is completed or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 13 - 2019

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GBP/JPY is trying to build the bottom. However, a break above minor resistance at 128.32 and more importantly a break above resistance at 130.06 will confirm that a long-term low is in place and a new impulsive rally is likely to happen.

As long as minor resistance at 128 32 is able to cap the upside a little more downside pressure closer to the support in the 126.19 - 126.31 can not be excluded.

R3: 128.32

R2: 127.73

R1: 127.30

Pivot: 127.04

S1: 126.52

S2: 126.31

S3: 126.19

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 126.40 with a stop at 126.00 or upon a break above 127.87.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 13 - 2019

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The EUR/JPY pair is likely to reach the bottom if a break above 118.40 takes place and more importantly a break above resistance at 119.17.

Yesterday EUR/JPY made a new low at 117.50 falling from 127.50. As long as minor resistance at 118.40 is able to cap the upside, we can not exclude more downside pressure but the downside momentum is clearly weakening. It should just be a matter of time before the final low and a new impulsive rally.

R3: 119.17

R2: 118.72

R1: 118.40

Pivot: 117.90

S1: 117.65

S2: 117.50

S3: 117.30

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 117.60 was hit for a 35 pip loss. We will re-buy EUR upon a break above 118.40 with a stop placed at 117.40

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Trading plan for EURUSD for August 13, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EURUSD seems to be preparing to push higher to 1.1260/65 levels before reversing lower. Yesterday's low towards 1.1160 levels and subsequent rally after that indicates an impulse at a lower degree. The current drop looks to be in 3 waves which is corrective. Hence, the short-term rally lasting for 1-2 days or a few hours remains a high probability. It is advisable to take profits on the shorts initiated last week around 1.1200/10 levels, and remain flat (conservative), or initiate fresh longs for a target of 1.1260 levels. Immediate price support remains at 1.1160 levels, while resistance is seen at 1.1285/90 levels respectively. Prices have remained sideways for a while now, and could possible terminate this counter trend rally by pushing higher one last time towards 1.1260 levels. Also note that 1.1260 is the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous drop between 1.1412 and 1.1020 levels respectively. That is why a bearish reaction remains high probability.

Trading plan:

Take short term profit on short positions taken last week. Aggressive traders go long with stop just below 1.1160, with target of 1.1260 levels. Conservative traders look to short at 1.1260 levels going forward.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 13, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German WPI m/m, and German Final CPI m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1270. Strong Resistance: 1.1264. Original Resistance: 1.1253. Inner Sell Area: 1.1242. Target Inner Area: 1.1216. Inner Buy Area: 1.1190. Original Support: 1.1179. Strong Support: 1.1168. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1162. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. 12th of August. Results of the day. The IMF and Goldman Sachs are sounding the alarm about the conflict between

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 110p - 82p - 63p - 59p - 69p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 77p (72p).

The EUR/USD pair ended the first trading day of the week, August 12, calmly without sudden movements, without amazing news and in continuation of the flat. Not a single important macroeconomic report was published during the day, however, the pair still tried to start a new downward trend, but failed. However, the US currency is still inclined towards a new strengthening, despite the fact that on Monday the market again reiterated concerns about the US-Chinese trade conflict. The thing is that the Goldman Sachs banking group has predicted its own version of the development of events in the trade war between Beijing and Washington. According to the bank, a trade agreement between the countries will not be concluded until the presidential election of 2020, since the recent mutual measures of Trump and Xi Jinping indicate an escalation of the conflict, and not a movement to overcome it. Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US GDP for the 4th quarter, and also warned that a trade war could lead to a recession in the United States. In addition, the IMF published a report calling on parties (China and the United States) to close a deal to avoid negative consequences for the global financial system. As you can see, many of the largest organizations are very worried about the trade war, but we are only interested in the context of the dollar exchange rate in the forex currency market. But in reality, the US currency does not yet feel much pressure, in this regard. Yes, in recent weeks, the US currency has slightly dropped, but still remains around the lows of the last two years. Demand for the euro is low.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its side correction, which is eloquently signaled by Bollinger bands. Thus, we recommend buying the euro/dollar pair not earlier than expanding the bands up with the first target of 1.1266. It is recommended to sell the pair in small lots after the reversal of the bands down to the Senkou span B line.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 13, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, Tertiary Industry Activity m/m, and PPI y/y, while the US will publish some economic data such as Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and NFIB Small Business Index. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance.3 : 105.95.

Resistance. 2: 105.75.

Resistance. 1: 105.54.

Support. 1: 105.28.

Support. 2: 105.08.

Support. 3: 104.87.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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EURUSD is approaching our first support at 1.1164 where we might be seeing a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.1164

Why it's good : Horizontal overlap support, 100%, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.1114

Why it's good : horizontal overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.1281

Why it's good: horizontal swing high resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 13, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday, for almost the fifth consecutive time, the euro has been reflected down from the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. Today in the Asian session, the black candle already blocked yesterday's white. In the afternoon, data on moods in business circles of the euro area for the current month will be released. The ZEW business sentiment index in Germany is expected to worsen from -24.5 to -27.0; -21.7 is forecasted from -20.3 in July throughout the euro area.

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The Marlin oscillator on the daily almost touches the zero boundary value – the boundary separating the growth zone from the declining trend zone. We believe that today the price will reach the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.1155). Reaching this level will automatically lead to a price drop below the MACD line on a four-hour chart, and this will already be a direct signal to a short-term decline in the euro, since here the Marlin signal line has already consolidated in the decline zone. The goal in the coming days is the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price of 1.1074. Next, the target is 1.0980 (reaction level 138.2%).

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NZD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal

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Price approaching its resistance where a reversal could occur.

Entry: 0.6482

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension,61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 0.6398

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

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USD/JPY bouncing off 1st support, further bounce!

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USDJPY is bouncing off 1st support at 105.082 where we are expecting a further bounce up this level.

Entry :105.082

Why it's good : horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 106.71

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal swing high support

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 13, 2019

GBP/USD

On Monday, the pound sterling slightly adjusted the top from strong technical support of the range of 1.1986-1.2032, corresponding to the lows of January 2017 and October 2016, and coinciding with the Fibonacci levels of the daily chart of 271.0% and 261.8%.

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Convergence on the Marlin oscillator formed on the daily chart. Whether this pattern turns out to be a sign of a deeper correction, to the Fibonacci levels of 238.2%, at the price of 1.2154 or 223.6% at the price of 1.2230, or will it turn out to be a false signal and the price will consolidate at 1.1986, it will become clear either today after the release of data on employment in the UK or tomorrow, with the release of inflation indicators. According to today's data, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%, applications for unemployment benefits in July may be slightly less than in the previous month - 32.0 thousand against 38.0 thousand. Inflation forecasts on Wednesday are negative, in particular CPI may drop from 2.0% y/y to 1.9% y/y.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is steadily falling below the blue MACD indicator line, while the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. The current situation is neutral, we are waiting for the development of events.

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AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 13, 2019 APLs &

Minor operational scale (H4)

Let's consider the comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement of currency instruments AUD / USD vs USD / CAD vs NZD / USD vs #USDX (based on the results of the first half of August) from August 13, 2019 on the Minor operational scale (daily timeframe).

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US dollar Index

From August 13, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (97.95 - 97.65 - 97.25) of the Minuette operational scale fork. We look at the movement graphics within this channel on the animation chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 97.25 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 channel of the Median Line Minuette will determine the development of the movement of the dollar index in the equilibrium zone (97.25 - 96.75 - 96.30) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the upper limit (96.00) of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor operational scale (95.10).

On the other hand, if the upper boundary (resistance level of 97.95) is broken through the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of #USDX can be continued to the targets - the initial line SSL Minuette (98.60) - the control line UTL (98.80) of the Minor operational scale fork - the control line UTL Minuette (99.05).

The markup of #USDX movement options from August 13, 2019 is shown in the animated chart.

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar/ US dollar (AUD / USD) from August 13, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6820 - 0.6773 - 0.6720) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The details of the movement inside the equilibrium zone are shown in the animation chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 0.6820) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the development of the movement of the Australian dollar to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.6865 - 0.6900 - 0.6935), and if breakdown of the upper boundary (0.6935) of this channel will happen, the continuation of the upward movement towards the targets is possible - the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 (0.6980) equilibrium zone of the Minor operational scale fork - the control line UTL Minuette (0.7045) - local maximum 0.7083.

In the event of a breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 0.6720) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, there will be a continuation of the downward movement of AUD / USD to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6545 - 0.6450 - 0.6360) of the Minor operational scale fork.

From August 13, 2019, we look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options in the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.6520 - 0.6465 - 0.6400) of the Minuette operational scale will determine the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar/US dollar (NZD / USD) in August 2019. The movement markings in the 1 / 2 Median Line Minuette channel are indicated in the animation chart.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6520 at the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will make the development of the NZD / USD movement in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.6520 - 0.6565 - 0.6610) relevant with the prospect of reaching the SSL Minuette start line (0.6695) and the control line UTL (0.6735) Minor operating scale fork.

Meanwhile, if the breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 0.6585) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork takes place, then the downward movement of the New Zealand dollar/US dollar will be directed to the targets - 1/2 Median Line Minor (0.6375) - the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minor channel (0.6285) - the end line of SSL Minuette (0.6200).

We look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options from August 13, 2019 in the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3300 - 1.3230 - 1.3160) of the Minor operational scale will determine the development of the movement of the USD / CAD from August 13, 2019. The details of the movement inside this channel are shown in the animation chart.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 1.3160) of the Minor operational scale fork will allow the downward movement of the Canadian dollar to continue towards the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.3125 - 1.3055 - 1.3000) of the Minuette operational scale fors with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minor (1.2940).

As a result of the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3300 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minor operational scale fork), it will become possible to continue the upward movement of USD / CAD to the targets - local maximum 1.3344 - warning line UWL38.2 Minor (1.3450) - control line UTL Minor (1.3510).

From August 13, 2019, we are looking at the markup of the USD / CAD movement options in the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6%;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 13

Forecast for August 13:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1284, 1.1259, 1.1234, 1.1162, 1.1145 and 1.1120. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the medium-term ascending structure on August 1. The continuation of the upward trend is possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.1234. In this case, the target is 1.1259. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1284. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1162 - 1.1145. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the goal is 1.1120. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure from August 1, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1234 Take profit: 1.1258

Buy 1.1261 Take profit: 1.1284

Sell: 1.1162 Take profit: 1.1146

Sell: 1.1144 Take profit: 1.1122

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2142, 1.2099, 1.2069, 1.2014, 1.1952, 1.1908 and 1.1850. Here, we follow the downward cycle of July 31. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2014. In this case, the target is 1.1952. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.1952 - 1.1908. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1850. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2069 - 1.2099. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.2142. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2069 Take profit: 1.2097

Buy: 1.2100 Take profit: 1.2140

Sell: 1.2012 Take profit: 1.1954

Sell: 1.1950 Take profit: 1.1910

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9797, 0.9768, 0.9706, 0.9682, 0.9641, 0.9604 and 0.9536. Here, we follow the medium-term descending structure of August 1. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 0.9706 - 0.9682. In this case, the target is 0.9641. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9641 - 0.9604. The breakdown of the level of 0.9604 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.9536.

The departure for correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9768. Here, the first goal is 0.9797. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9797 - 0.9816. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the target is 0.9854.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9797

Buy : 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9852

Sell: 0.9680 Take profit: 0.9641

Sell: 0.9638 Take profit: 0.9605

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 107.20, 106.45, 105.96, 105.14, 104.44, 104.00 and 103.01. Here, we follow the descending structure of August 1. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 105.14. In this case, the target is 104.44. Price consolidation is in the range of 104.44 - 104.00. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 103.01. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 104.00.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 105.96 - 106.45. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.20. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

Main trend: descending structure of August 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 105.96 Take profit: 106.43

Buy : 106.46 Take profit: 107.20

Sell: 105.13 Take profit: 104.46

Sell: 104.00 Take profit: 103.05

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3444, 1.3393, 1.3354, 1.3329, 1.3280, 1.3212, 1.3175 and 1.3102. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upward structure on July 31 and forms the potential for the downward movement from August 7. The breakdown of the level of 1.3212 will lead to the formation of expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 1.3175. Price consolidation is near this level. The continuation of movement to the top is possible after the breakdown of the level of 1.3280. In this case, the first target is 1.3329. Consolidation is in the range of 1.3329 - 1.3354. The breakdown of the level of 1.3355 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3393.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of July 31, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3280 Take profit: 1.3329

Buy : 1.3355 Take profit: 1.3392

Sell: 1.3212 Take profit: 1.3178

Sell: 1.3173 Take profit: 1.3105

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6803, 0.6762, 0.6733 and 0.6675.Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure from August 7. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The development of this structure is is expected to be cancelled after the breakdown of the level of 0.6733. In this case, the potential target is 0.6675. The continuation of the upward movement is possible after the breakdown of the level of 0.6803. In this case the first target is 0.6843. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6843 - 0.6869. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6902. Consolidation is in the range of 0.6902 - 0.6922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the ascending cycle of August 7, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6805 Take profit: 0.6840

Buy: 0.6844 Take profit: 0.6867

Sell : 0.6730 Take profit : 0.6680

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.16, 118.77, 118.47, 117.81, 117.36, 116.95, 116.47 and 116.19. Here, we follow the descending structure of August 6th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 117.81. Here, the goal is 117.36. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 117.36 - 116.95. The breakdown of the level of 116.95 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards a potential target - 116.19. Consolidation is in the range of 116.47 - 116.19.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 118.47 - 118.77. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.16. This level is the key support for the descending structure of August 6.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 6th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.48 Take profit: 118.75

Buy: 118.78 Take profit: 119.14

Sell: 117.80 Take profit: 117.38

Sell: 117.34 Take profit: 116.97

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 129.44, 128.51, 127.85, 126.48, 125.57, 124.20 and 123.39. Here, we follow the local descending structure of July 31. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 126.48 - 125.57. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement, Here, the target is 124.20. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 123.39. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 127.85 - 128.51. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the goal is 129.44. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.85 Take profit: 128.50

Buy: 128.53 Take profit: 129.42

Sell: 126.45 Take profit: 125.58

Sell: 125.53 Take profit: 124.25

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Will the dollar manage to protect itself?

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The trade war between the United States and China has moved into the next phase, and markets are aware of the new realities. The owner of the White House aggravates relations with China and forces the Federal Reserve to lower rates, while Beijing patiently awaits US elections in 2020, periodically showing off its weapons.

Economists at Morgan Stanley published fresh forecasts stating that the Fed will soften monetary policy twice this year in September and October. In 2020, in their opinion, the market will expect another 3 or 4 rounds of rate cuts. In addition, the bank reduced the 10-year forecast for US Treasury yield at the end of the year to 1.60% from the previous 1.68%.

The victory in the trade war that the United States "drew" for itself is unlikely to happen. There are a number of reasons for this. First of all, it is worth saying that no improvement in the foreign trade of the United States is happening. The potential for monetary expansion of the US central bank is much deeper than that of other world regulators. The US currency is overvalued, and the evidence is redundant: everything is visible with the naked eye. Over the past decade, the dollar index has grown by a quarter. This is the best result not only for the specified time period, but for the whole history. The Bloomberg Dollar Index has risen 32% since the US credit rating worsened in 2011.

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Washington, trying to run ahead of the whole planet, including in front of China, may imperceptibly lag behind as a result. This is already becoming apparent. The Americans still have not received the expected benefits from the grand tariffs introduced in July last year. The opposite is true: US exports to China fell by 21%, while China's exports to America grew by 1%. The balance of foreign trade between the two countries also benefited. The Chinese economy slowed down to 6.2%, no one denies this, but the US is growing even more slowly (2.1%). Beijing is patient in a trade dispute, as it understands that the disaster did not happen.

If anyone is in pain, it is America. The yield curve fell to a 12-year low, which signals a recession is approaching. Not only D. Trump, but his team is also calling on the Fed to lower the rate. According to the president's trade adviser Peter Navarro, in order to bring borrowing costs to the same level as other states, the US central bank needs to reduce the rate by 75-100 bp.

By the way, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US economic growth over the weekend, warning that a trade deal was unlikely before the 2020 presidential election, and predicted a recession was approaching.

According to market participants, the only thing that can change D. Trump's position regarding China is a large-scale correction of stock indices. The Dow Jones revaluation is excessive for the second time in history, according to research materials from AG Bisset Associates. The index deviated from its long-term average of 130%. Patterns from 1929, 1999 and 2018 indicate that a major pullback is near. The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, may well save the stock market from a huge sell-off. Improving relations between the US and China is unlikely to succeed. It seems that D. Trump himself is aware of this.

The US leader purposefully prepares markets for the potential negative. Therefore, he said that the negotiations between Washington and Beijing in September may not take place, which does not exclude the correction of stock indices. He also said that the country does not need the devaluation of the dollar: moreover, he is against this step. It is in words, but in reality everything is different. The Fed's calls to lower the rate are verbal interventions. Here the question is brewing: will opponents of the trade conflict be able to withdraw EUR/USD quotes outside the range of 1.1175–1.1245?

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Pound sales may resume

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All UK macroeconomic reports have been a failure. The country's GDP was negative, industry declined both in monthly and annual terms. Meanwhile, the government does not want to see problems in the economy and is successfully shifting market attention to political factors.

The British prime minister's calls to revise the conditions for leaving the EU remain unanswered. Traders' fears regarding Brexit without a deal contributed to the pound's collapse, which ended last week at its lowest mark of over three decades against the dollar. Against the euro, it fell to its lowest level since 2009. The falling pound feeds negative forecasts. Big investors and analysts scare the markets by reducing the currency to 1.10 against the dollar and 1.0 - paired with the euro.

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The pound began the new week with recovery, but, given the very vague economic and political picture of England, it could not hold out in the black for a long time.

Credit Agricole believes that the lack of clarity on Brexit makes any recovery of the pound attractive for the resumption of its sales. The rally may be due to profit taking in a market that is excessively short in pounds. It is unlikely that investors will take a more constructive view of the pound now.

This week it is worth paying attention to reports on the labor market, inflation and retail sales. However, the impact of statistics is likely to be short-term. There is little official information about contacts with officials from Brussels, nevertheless even the most insignificant negative increases the likelihood of a "hard" exit from the EU, which means that the market will regard it as a new reason for selling the pound.

Johnson spends a lot, the risk of early elections is growing.

Instead of saving money to support the economy ahead of Brexit, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is increasing spending. The newly made prime minister is accused of unreasonable expenses.

On Sunday, he announced that he would spend 2.5 billion euros on prisons as part of his promise to reduce crime. Before this, funding for the National Health Service was significantly expanded. Even larger amounts can be allocated after the Treasury completes the annual calculation of ministry expenditures. Most likely, this will happen in September, since the date of exit from the EU - October 31 - is approaching.

Bloomberg notes that Johnson, demanding additional funding for a particular direction, is guided solely by political considerations. This is fundamentally wrong, given the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the shrinking economy for the first time in seven years.

At the moment, the only way to stop the prime minister is through a vote of no confidence. So consider his opponents. The risk of holding early general elections is increasing. However, it may disappear if B. Johnson fails to realize his plans for an aggressive "divorce" from the EU.

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Leading US investment banks forecast gold rally up to $2000 per ounce

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For the first time since April 2013, the price of gold managed to gain a foothold above 1,500 per ounce.

According to analysts, many factors currently indicate the preservation of an upward trend, even if quotes consolidate in the near future.

"The main driver of price growth will be the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China," Goldman Sachs said.

"We doubt that the parties will be able to conclude a trade before the presidential election in the United States, which will be held in 2020," they added.

The bank believes that a possible slowdown in the global economy will also provide support to gold.

"Demand for gold will remain high until stable economic growth in industrialized countries is restored," representatives of the financial institute said.

Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate for the growth rate of US GDP in the fourth quarter from 2% to 1.8%.

According to the bank's forecasts, in the next three months the cost of precious metal will reach $1,575 per ounce, and on the horizon of 6-12 months - $1,600 per ounce.

At the same time, analysts admit that if concerns remain regarding the prospects for the global economy, the price of gold could well exceed projected levels.

Bank of America expects quotes to rise to around $2,000 an ounce.

"Gold will continue to grow thanks to the policy of quantitative stimulation, which will be carried out by central banks and is unlikely to revive business activity. Against this background, investors will be even more concerned about the prospects for the global economy, which means that the price of gold will confidently demonstrate new record values," economists at Bank of America believe.

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Italy pulls down the euro again, while the pound tries to grab hold of a straw

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The EUR/USD pair unexpectedly fell below 1.1200 today and slumped to four-day lows in the area of 1.1170.

Since Monday's economic calendar is empty, the focus is on the escalation of tensions in US and China trade relations, as well as the political situation in Italy, where the likelihood of holding early elections is increasing.

In the near future, the leaders of the Italian Parliament should meet to decide when to put to the vote the question of no confidence in the country's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. The Five Stars movement and the center-left Democratic Party intend to create an alliance aimed at curbing the efforts of Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini to take control of the government.

It is not yet clear how citizens of the eurozone's third-largest economy are ready to go to new elections. However, if they do take place, then M. Salvini, who, apparently, is aiming for the prime minister position, could once again promise to violate the EU budget rules. Recall that at the end of last year, the conflict between Rome and Brussels has greatly damaged the single European currency.

"Reports of the United States' introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports made it possible for EUR/USD to grow to 1.12, but this dynamics is unlikely to be sustainable, because the consequences of the Washington and Beijing trade war will have a painful effect on the European economy," Westpac representatives said.

"Even if the Fed cuts its interest rate three times this year (to 1.375%), the Treasury will remain a highly profitable safe asset, which will continue to support the greenback," they added.

According to Westpac's forecast, by the end of this year, the EUR/USD pair will drop to 1.08 and will trade near this mark at least until mid-2020.

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Meanwhile, GBP/USD is attempting to recover after updating multi-year lows. The pair was able to attract buyers near the 1.20 mark.

The pound sterling was supported by the news that British MPs are developing an action plan under which they will require the government of Boris Johnson to transfer the Brexit deadline from October 31 to a later date. According to The Times, at this stage this seems to be the only way to avoid Great Britain's withdrawal from the European Union without a deal.

"Our basic scenario is that there will be some kind of extension, which is perhaps the most likely result, although we are now much less confident about this than at the beginning of the year. At the end of March, the probability of a "hard" Brexit was only at 5-10%, while now it is close to 50%," Allianz Global Investors said.

According to their estimates, the pound could be cheaper by 10% if there is no deal by October 31.

"The political turmoil that may follow will raise the chances of opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn to become the next prime minister of the United Kingdom, which could bring the British currency down to par with the US dollar," analysts say.

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The USD/JPY pair has been declining for the fourth consecutive day, since US President Donald Trump said trade negotiations with China may not take place next month, as previously planned.

"We have an open dialogue. Let's see if we manage to keep the meeting in force in September. If it succeeds, it's fine, if not, it's also good," said the head of the White House.

According to analysts, this is only a matter of time before the USD/JPY pair breaks the 105 mark. This could happen already this week if data on retail sales and consumer inflation in the US do not meet expectations.

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Analysts: a sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin is alarming

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The rapid rise in the price of bitcoin in a relatively short period of time is alarming for some participants in the cryptocurrency market and a number of analysts. Many analysts see this as a catch, believing that such a phenomenon is the result of active speculation by large players.

According to some crypto enthusiasts, the rally of the number one cryptocurrency with a predominance of a bullish trend seems to be misleading. However, analysts are certain that this is not so. From the outside, it seems that Bitcoin is set to conquer record highs, but now it is hardly possible, analysts say. They do not exclude that the crypto asset will be able to get out of the "bear pit", and recommend to stop trading, observing the dynamics of the market. Analysts also advise to be patient and accumulate cryptocurrency.

Many market participants pay attention to a significant reduction in the number of requests for the keywords "buy bitcoin" compared to 2017. This fact also alarms crypto enthusiasts and analysts. They find it difficult to answer why, with a decrease in interest in Bitcoin, the price of an asset is growing rapidly.

Analysts consider the number one cryptocurrency's current take-off as speculative. They believe that the reason for this is the geopolitical situation complicated by the trade war between the US and China, which is used by speculators to push the BTC up. "Bitcoin has risen from $3,000 to $14,000 in a matter of months, emerging from the bear market. This is an alarming signal," analysts emphasize.

Confirmation of cryptocurrency speculation is the observation of market participants on the dynamics of bitcoin on Sunday, August 11. First, MTC sellers provoked a false breakthrough of the support level of $11250, and buyers instantly returned the price to the upper limit of the range. In the evening, the asset managed to overcome resistance and gain a foothold just above the 50% Fibonacci level ($ 11,394.14). Analysts are certain that on Monday, August 12, recovery will continue. If the bears can break through the strong support level of $11,250, then by the middle of this week the price of Bitcoin will pull back to the psychological mark of $10,000.

At the moment, Bitcoin could not gain a foothold at the $12,000 key mark, analysts summarize. Moreover, on Sunday, the MTC slid sharply to the lower boundary of $11,000, and by Monday morning it stabilized at around $ 11,400. Bitcoin price fluctuations maintain their intensity, but occur in a narrow range with a slight decrease in trading volumes.

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Sale of AUD/USD continues: the pair is testing the level of 0.6750

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The Australian dollar is getting cheaper amid a wide rebound in the US dollar, a weakening renminbi and a declining risk appetite. The fact that Chinese iron ore futures are becoming cheaper significantly contributes to the Australian dollar's decline. Selling the AUD/USD pair is gaining momentum after the dollar regained its positions in all directions. The escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, combined with the latest events surrounding the Hong Kong protests, has led to risk aversion in all directions, and US stocks in tandem with Treasury yields have changed course. In addition, sentiment around the Australian dollar was undermined by falling iron ore prices in China. Ferrous metal reached new two-month lows of 609.50 yuan ($ 86.31) per tonne amid concerns about weak demand. Recall that iron ore is Australia's main export product. The situation was also aggravated by the devaluation of the yuan in an attempt to counter the influence of new US tariffs, which strengthened the "bearish" sentiment.

Highly profitable currencies will continue to be affected by trends in risky sentiment. In addition, the attention of the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the short-term trading impulse ahead of data on the US consumer price index and employment in Australia remains in the spotlight.

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