Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 30/07/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made a big move down towards the level of 1.2100 as anticipated. The local low was made so far at the level of 1.2118, but it is only a matter of time the level of 1.2100 is hit. The momentum indicator remains weak nad negative, which indicated a further possible spike towards the level of 1.1983. The trend is still down and there are no signs of a trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2594

WR2- 1.2550

WR1 - 1.2446

Weekly Pivot - 1.2406

WS1 - 1.2296

WS2 - 1.2257

WS3 - 1.2154

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of any trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 and 1.1983. All the corrections are just the local correction inside of a downtrend.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for July 30, 2019

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GBP/JPY broke strongly below 133.53 which has extended the downside pressure towards 131.98 and maybe even closer to 130.69. However, this break should be short lived as the decline from 148.87 now is very over-extended and a sudden turnaround could be seen anytime now.

The first indication of a bottom being in place will be a break above 133.31 while a break above 134.07 will confirm the bottom of wave 2 and call for more upside through 135.67 towards 137.79 and above.

R3: 133.31

R2: 132.85

R1: 132.54

Pivot: 132.14

S1: 131.98

S2: 131.50

S3: 130.69

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 133.65.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 30, 2019

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Support in the 120.54 - 120.60 area held well and protected the downside for a new rally to attack the 121.35 peak. This peak has not been conquered yet, but if minor support at 120.96 is able to protect the downside for a new attempt to break above 121.35, we think the next attempt will be successful. So, the price is likely to extend its climb to 122.32 and even higher to 123.36.

That said, we also have to accept the possibility of the rally from 120.71 to be part of a flat correction. A clear break below 120.96 will increase the odds for this scenario and call for another dip to the 120.54 - 120.71 area before EUR/JPY is ready to take off in the next impulsive rally.

R3: 121.84

R2: 121.68

R1: 121.35

Pivot: 121.22

S1: 120.96

S2: 120.88

S3: 120.71

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.85 with our stop placed at 120.00

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EUR / USD: a strong dollar, Trump hysteria and the intrigue of the July Fed meeting

The dollar index is at the peak of this year during the Asian session on Tuesday. It almost reached 98 points, reflecting the demand for US currency throughout the market. The EUR/USD pair managed to keep within the 11th figure but the position of the EUR/USD bulls is unstable. The bears could not impulsively push the support level of 1.1105 and enter the 10th figure, so they had to temporarily retreat. After which, the price showed a modest correctional increase. However, the dollar still maintains a strong position in the market. Therefore, a retest of the above support level is quite likely in the near future and possibly tomorrow, following the results of the July Fed meeting.

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It is noteworthy that the American currency has acquired a kind of "immunity" to the attacks of Donald Trump. Earlier this week, the American president again lashed out at the Fed. In his twitter, he wrote that the European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China are preparing to pour money into the financial systems while lowering interest rates. Meanwhile, the Fed is inactive, ignoring the weak inflation rate. He also clarified that the Fed "will make a very small step" in the near future, apparently bearing in mind a reduction in the rate by 25 basis points. Despite such a sharp lunge in the direction of the American regulator, the foreign exchange market completely ignored it, and the dollar index continued to gain momentum. This is due to several factors. Firstly, Trump is in a rather helpless state regarding the personnel policy of the Fed.

Secondly, the latest US macroeconomic data allows the Fed not to resort to an aggressive easing of monetary policy. US inflation is indeed growing at a slow pace, but other economic indicators show mainly positive dynamics after a temporary recession. In addition, recent comments by economic adviser Larry Cudlow have lowered investor concerns about currency intervention. A senior official said the White House abandoned this idea despite a significant strengthening of the national currency.

If it is really so, we will know soon. The results of the July meeting of the Fed may provide additional support for the US currency, which is already at its maximum value anyway - and not only paired with the euro but paired with the pound. Further growth of the greenback will negatively affect both the export sector of the United States and inflationary processes. On the eve of the two-day meeting of the Fed, Trump called on members of the regulator to soften monetary policy "more significantly" (that is, to cut the rate immediately by 50 bp). Despite the fact that the basic scenario of today's meeting implies a reduction in the rate by 25 points, the market still worries that the Fed members will succumb to political pressure. In particular, Jerome Powell may hint at a further rate cut in the fall or in December. In that case, Greenback will suspend his rally and the EUR/USD pair will not only be able to return to the 12th figure but also to claim higher values (much will depend on the dynamics of European inflation).

In addition, one should not forget that another round of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing is starting today. The initial optimism in this matter faded away and the parties were again bogged down in the negotiation process. The White House has already stated that one should not expect any practical results from this meeting (in particular, the signing of the deal), the US delegation will only hold regular consultations with the Chinese side. Here, it is worth recalling Trump's recent statement that China may decide to wait for the next US election "in the hope that it will be able to negotiate trade issues with another president." This suggests that the head of the White House is skeptical about the prospects of the negotiation process, and the likelihood of a full-fledged trade transaction in the near future is low. By the way, a little more than a year is left before the next US presidential election, while Trump is 5-10% lower than his main Democratic opponents. Therefore, the wait-and-see attitude of the Chinese in this context is fully justified.

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Given the above factors, the intrigue of tomorrow's meeting remains. With 100% probability today, the Fed will reduce the interest rate to 2.25% but further actions by the regulator remain in question. If Powell is satisfied with the precautionary step and declares that he has been waiting, the dollar will increase its growth and together with the euro, it will go into the 10th figure. However, if the head of the Federal Reserve hints at the "continuation of the banquet" in September, the EUR/USD pair will return to the first resistance level of 1.1210, which is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on July 30, 2019

USD / JPY pair

In the past three days, the USD/JPY pair has slowed growth before the technical resistance of the price channel line. Hence, the Marlin oscillator signal line showed an intention to turn down with the subsequent formation of a divergence with the price on the daily chart. There is no consolidation over resistance. In case of deterioration of external conditions, the target level of 109.64 may not be achieved (in the near future).

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Today, the Bank of Japan left the monetary policy decision unchanged. The unemployment rate fell from 2.4% to 2.3% but industrial production fell by 3.6% m/m in June. The market reacted to the news with a decrease in the pair.

Divergence is already formed on the four-hour chart. The positive scenario assumes price development within the upward price channel because for a full-fledged divergence on the daily chart. The price should still be overcome by the July 10 maximum at 109.00.

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However, on the other hand, an unexpressed divergence will become the basis for a slight fall in the price. The first target will be to support the MACD line in the area of 108.28 on H4. Overcoming the support and securing it can send the price lower to a minimum on July 11 at a price of 107.87. The probability of a decline to 108.28 is 60% and to 107.87 about 45%.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 30, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro grew by 17 points in anticipation of today's data on expenditures and incomes of consumers in the United States. The euro did not dare to overcome the key support of 1.1107/16, even against yesterday's collapse of the British pound by 165 points. Investors are waiting for data, as well as other news over the decision on the Fed FOMC rate tomorrow.

So, personal incomes of consumers in the US for June are expected to grow by 0.3%, expenses also by 0.3%, which after a figure of 0.4% a month earlier looks like a strong trend.

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On the daily chart, the price consolidates below the Fibonacci level 110.0%. The Marlin oscillator signal line turns up a bit as a discharge - releasing the voltage from the indicator before further reducing it. The first goal of the market will be the Fibonacci level of 123.6% on the price of 1.1074. The second goal is the Fibonacci reaction level of 138.2% at a price of 1.0985.

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On the H4 chart, the probability of testing the MACD line (1.1156) remains before the currency pair could further decrease. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone, but, in accordance with the situation of the higher timeframe, the current growth can be taken for a passing phenomenon.

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Control zones for EUR/USD pair on 07/30/19

The fall of last week was stopped after the pair reached the lower limit of the monthly control zone and the weekly average move. This caused the emergence of demand, which indicates the accumulation of a large number of limit buy orders at current levels and below.

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It is important to note that the monthly control zone coincides with the significant minimum formed in May of this year. This makes this range decisive for long-term movement.

An alternative model of falling has a 30% probability, therefore, it is extremely unprofitable to consider sales at current levels. In most cases, updating the minimum of the month in the coming days will lead to the emergence of an even larger demand, which will allow getting favorable prices.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 30, 2019

GBP/USD

Yesterday, the British pound fell by 165 points on fears of a "hard" Brexit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would not continue negotiations with the EU on this issue until the EU changes its decision on the border with Ireland. There was talk about new elections in the UK in the media space. Probably, there is a deja vu effect, since the Theresa May election didn't lead to anything good.

Today, the pound lost more than 40 points in the Asian session, in the evening there will be US data on consumer personal spending for June, the forecast for which suggests an increase of 0.3%. To the nearest technical support - the embedded line of the price channel is more than one hundred points, a target of 1.2055.

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On the four-hour chart, the price significantly broke away from the balance and MACD lines, the signal line of the leading Marlin oscillator shows no signs of a reversal. As a result, we are waiting for the pound to reach the target level without a noticeable correction.

On the four-hour chart, the price still maintains the potential of testing the MACD line in the area of 1.1156, which coincides with the high on July 24.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, July 30, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, German Prelim CPI m/m, French Gov Budget Balance, French Consumer Spending m/m, German GfK Consumer Climate, and French Flash GDP q/q. The US will also publish the economic data such as Pending Home Sales m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1197. Strong Resistance: 1.1191. Original Resistance: 1.1180. Inner Sell Area: 1.1169. Target Inner Area: 1.1143. Inner Buy Area: 1.1117. Original Support: 1.1106. Strong Support: 1.1095. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1089. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, July 30, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Policy Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, and Unemployment Rate, while the US will also publish some economic data such as Pending Home Sales m/m, CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 109.40. Resistance. 2: 109.19. Resistance. 1: 108.98. Support. 1: 108.71. Support. 2: 108.50. Support. 3: 108.28. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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GBPUSD is approaching our first support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.2138

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.1912

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 1.2491

Why it's good: Horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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AUD/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

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Price is approaching its support at 0.6891 where it could bounce back to its resistance.

Entry: 0.6891

Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 0.6834

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 0.6914

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance

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USD/JPY reversed off 1st resistance, further drop!

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USDJPY reversed off 1st resistance at 108.956, further drop could occur!

Entry :108.956

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 108.365

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

61.8% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal pullback support

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 30

Forecast for July 30:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1212, 1.1195, 1.1174, 1.1162, 1.1119, 1.1104 and 1.1073. Here, the price is in the correction zone from the downward structure on July 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.1162 - 1.1174. In this case, the goal is 1.1195, where price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1212.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1119 - 1.1104. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement towards a potential target - 1.1073. From this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the local downward structure of July 18, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1175 Take profit: 1.1195

Buy 1.1197 Take profit: 1.1212

Sell: 1.1119 Take profit: 1.1105

Sell: 1.1103 Take profit: 1.1075

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2311, 1.2265, 1.2240, 1.2204 and 1.2172. Here, we continue to follow the downward cycle of July 19th. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2204 - 1.2172. Hence, we expect a key reversal to the correction area.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2240 - 1.2265. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2311. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2240 Take profit: 1.2263

Buy: 1.2266 Take profit: 1.2310

Sell: 1.2202 Take profit: 1.2174

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9952, 0.9930, 0.9919, 0.9888, 0.9871 and 0.9850. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 22. At the moment, the price is in correction. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9941 - 0.9952. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the potential target - 0.9970. From this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.9919 - 0.9908. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9888. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of July 22, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9941 Take profit: 0.9950

Buy : 0.9954 Take profit: 0.9970

Sell: 0.9919 Take profit: 0.9909

Sell: 0.9907 Take profit: 0.9888

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.86, 109.48, 109.29, 108.94, 108.54, 108.40, 108.16 and 107.92. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of July 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 108.95. In this case, the goal is 109.29. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 109.29 - 109.48. We consider the level of 109.48 to be a potential value for the top. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.54 - 108.40. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.16. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. Here, the potential goal is 107.92.

The main trend: the ascending structure of July 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.95 Take profit: 109.29

Buy : 109.30 Take profit: 109.46

Sell: 108.54 Take profit: 108.42

Sell: 108.38 Take profit: 108.16

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3279, 1.3259, 1.3217, 1.3201, 1.3157, 1.3140, 1.3117 and 1.3085. Here, we are following the local ascending structure of July 25th. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3201 - 1.3217. In this case, the goal is 1.3259. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3279. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3157 - 1.3140. The breakdown of the latter value will have to form a downward structure. Here, the first target is 1.3117. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3085.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of July 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3217 Take profit: 1.3257

Buy : 1.3260 Take profit: 1.3278

Sell: 1.3157 Take profit: 1.3140

Sell: 1.3138 Take profit: 1.3118

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For a pair of Australian dollar / US dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6958, 0.6934, 0.6921, 0.6907, 0.6888 and 0.6852. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of July 18. Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 0.6907 - 0.6888. Hence, we expect a key reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 0.6888 will lead to a move to a potential target of 0.6852, but in this case, we expect an unstable trend development.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.6921 - 0.6934. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. In this case, the target is 0.6958.

The main trend - the downward structure of July 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6921 Take profit: 0.6934

Buy: 0.6936 Take profit: 0.6955

Sell : Take profit :

Sell: 0.6884 Take profit: 0.6861

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 122.07, 121.62, 121.47, 121.26, 120.92, 120.74 and 120.49. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of July 25. At the moment, we expect the movement to the level - 121.47. Meanwhile, to the level of 121.62, we expect the registration of a pronounced structure of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 122.07. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 121.62.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 120.92 - 120.74. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 120.49. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of July 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.26 Take profit: 121.45

Buy: 121.64 Take profit: 122.05

Sell: 120.72 Take profit: 120.54

Sell: 120.45 Take profit: 120.10

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 134.10, 133.68, 133.38, 133.17, 132.72, 132.40, 132.20 and 131.80. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 25th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 132.72. In this case, the target is 132.40. Price consolidation is in the range of 132.40 - 132.20. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 131.80. After reaching which, we expect to go into a correction.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the range 133.17 - 133.38. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 133.68. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 134.10 .

The main trend - the downward structure of July 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.17 Take profit: 133.37

Buy: 133.40 Take profit: 133.68

Sell: 132.70 Take profit: 132.40

Sell: 132.20 Take profit: 131.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for Bitcoin on 07/30/19

Yesterday, Bitcoin has dropped to $ 9000. This allowed us to re-test the monthly minimum. The response to the test was an increase in demand. This makes it possible to indicate that there are limit buyers within the monthly minimum. While levels from 9000 and above are saturated with buyers, a further decrease remains unlikely. Thus, the likelihood of continued movement within the medium-term flat increases.

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It is also important to note that Bitcoin went beyond the monthly control zone. This makes it possible to search for purchases in the direction of return, since the probability of return is 90%.

When building a trading plan, it is important to note that throughout the past week, the pair has been trading below the level of balance. Today, the situation is similar, so the movement towards yesterday's high will be decisive. If the price is kept below the balance, the probability of updating the monthly minimum will be more than 50%. To break the downward impulse, it will be necessary to consolidate above the balance mark.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones EURJPY 07/30/19

Today, the pair is trading near WCZ 1/2 121.56-121.42. The test of this zone will be decisive for further movement. If the test leads to the emergence of a bid and the formation of a false breakdown pattern of yesterday's high, then sales of the instrument will come to the fore.

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Selling from the WCZ 1/2 is still a priority. The first goal of the decline will be the July low, which speaks of a favorable risk/profit ratio.

To break the downward impulse of the medium-term impulse, it will be necessary to close today's US session above 121.56. This will make it possible to rebuild the trade on the upward. The search for purchases will come to the fore, and the main objectives will be the highest levels of the current month.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit and Johnson: What does this mean for the euro and the pound?

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The beginning of the new week was marked by the fall of the British currency. By evening, the quotes fell to their lowest marks in the last 2 years. News of the Brexit come out one after another, all of which are negative. Judging by reports in the press, the UK is just waiting for a scandalous exit from the European Union. Hastened to notify Boris Johnson. In addition, British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that his department is actively preparing for a "hard" Brexit.

The pound remains hostage to the game played by the EU and Britain.

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In the near future, the pressure on it will not only continue but will also increase. There is almost no time left for a civilized "divorce". Given the harsh rhetoric of politicians, hopes for a new deal are melting away, and hard Brexit or early elections are becoming more realistic.

What is Johnson's role?

Many are now wondering: why did Boris Johnson become the leader of the Conservative Party and get the post of British prime minister? Where will this Englishman take the country with his unkempt hairdo and what will happen next? It would be naive to believe that a country accustomed to accusing and judging, ordering and domination, dividing people into masters and servants will put the naive and stupid simpleton at the head of an important post.

The image of Boris Johnson was chosen by chance, this is the opinion of most analysts. It works well in negotiations. The opponent gains confidence in the atypical Briton, he says, and sometimes he does more of his position. However, the work of Boris Johnson was seen by many at the post of British foreign office. It seems that an uncompromising man has come to the post of prime minister. It is not to be underestimated. No matter how he looks or what he says, it is important what he does. If Theresa May somehow considered Brexit's decision, having agreed with the EU, then in this case it's probably worth forgetting about the deal. It is possible that May's role was only distracting and time-consuming.

From an economic point of view, the UK is losing little even with hard Brexit. It has a trump card - a powerful partnership and a capacious market with a longtime ally of the United States, which, by the way, is hampered by Chinese exports. Having united with the British, it will be easier for the United States to solve the problem with China, with which England once fought with opium methods.

As for Europe, Germany, as well as other countries, will lose the sales market, since in the event of a hard Brexit, Britain will no less aggressively defend its interests. It should also take into account the sanctions against Russia with the filing of the United States, from which the Europeans are uneasy. Nothing has changed, the UK still considers itself a "lady" with a capital letter.

The euro is not to be envied, most likely, its rate will fall. Is it good or bad? Watching which side to watch. Given the imminent currency wars, the purpose of which is to weaken the currency, it is to the benefit. The ECB is seriously considering a reduction in rates and the launch of a printing press in order to later put pressure on the euro and support its exporter. The other side is customs duties. In the medium term, the euro against the pound may strengthen to 0.9550, and after a year - be at around 0.7320.

Paired with the dollar, the next stop for the euro can be the level of 1.10.

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Traders agree that the euro now has only one road - down. This is due to the local strengthening of the dollar and the prospects for reducing the ECB rate. The political background is also against the euro. Trade tensions between the United States and Europe intensified after the French president signed the "digital tax" law on US technology companies. Donald Trump threatened to introduce duties on French wines and other European products. "Short" positions on EUR/USD, apparently, remain in priority.

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The prolonged fall of the British pound: a record since March 2017

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According to analysts, the British currency has tested lows of the last two years. Its rate against the US dollar has significantly declined since March 2017. The beginning of the new week was marked by selling the pound, which started earlier.

News from the UK became the catalyst for the course of the currency's fall. Recall that the new government stands for Brexit without an agreement. A country's withdrawal from the EU without a deal can bring many surprises, primarily for the British currency. Prime Minister Boris Johnson stressed that he would not resume negotiations regarding Brexit with the leadership of the euro bloc until the other side changes its position regarding the border with Ireland. He warned about the readiness to leave the EU without a deal. At the same time, Dominic Raab, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the United Kingdom, notes that the British government is not against the agreement, but this does not suit the EU. As a result, the UK was faced with the need to go on the path of a "hard" Brexit, stress analysts.

In the course of the confrontation between the UK and the European Union, the pound suffered the most. It is a hostage to the current situation, analysts say. In the near future, the pressure on it will further increase. Against the background of "predatory" rhetoric of politicians, the possibility of a new deal is at zero. Analysts believe that the most likely scenario is a hard Brexit or early elections in the UK, which does not add optimism to the pound.

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USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY vs GBP / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from July 29, 2019. Analysis of APLs &

Let's consider what will happen to the movement of the "Land of the Rising Sun" USD / JPY and its cross-instruments EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY from Tuesday, July 29, 2019

Minuette (H4 timeframe)

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

On July 29, 2019, the movement of the "land of the rising sun" currency instrument USD / JPY will be determined by the direction of the range breakdown :

  • resistance level of 108.75 - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale forks;
  • support level of 108.60 - upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The breakdown of the support level of 108.60 - the development of the USD / JPY movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.60 - 108.35 - 108.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork, and in the case of the breakdown of the lower boundary (108.15) of this channel, the downward movement of USD / JPY can be continued the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.00 - 107.55 - 107.10) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

If, however, a breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.25) takes place at the Minuette operational scale, we will determine the further development of the USD / JPY movement in the equilibrium zone (108.25 - 108.55 - 108.85) Minuette operating scale fork.

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Euro vs Japanese yen

On the other hand, the development of the EUR / JPY cross-instrument movement from July 29, 2019 will be due to the working out and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of equilibrium zone (120.80 - 121.10 - 121.30) of the Minuette operating scale fork. Let's look at the animation chart.

In case of the breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 121.30) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of EUR / JPY can be continued towards the targets - the UTL control line (121.9) Minuette operational scale fork - FSL Minuette destination line (122.15).

The combined breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (support level of 120.80) of the Minuette operating scale fork and the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette (120.70) will make the development of EUR / JPY movement inside the 1/2 Median Line channels of the Minuette operational scale fork (120.70 - 120.55 - 120.35) and Minuette (120.45 - 120.02 - 119.55).

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Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen

The movement of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument from July 29, 2019 will depend on the working out and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of equilibrium zone (133.70 - 134.00 - 134.26) of the Minuette operational scale fork. More details are presented in the animation chart.

In case of a combined breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 133.70) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operating scale fork and the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (support level of 133.55), the downward movement of GBP / JPY can be continued to the targets - the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 (132.80) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale - the end line FSL Minuette (132.60) with the prospect of reaching the control line LTL Minuette ( 131.00 ).

Meanwhile, in the case of the consecutive breakdown of the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (resistance level of 134.26) of the Minuette operating scale fork and the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (resistance level of 134.40) of the equilbrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the development of GBP / JPY movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (134.26 - 134.50 - 134.75), and in the case of the breakdown of the upper boundary (134.75) of this channel, the upward movement of this cross-instrument can be continued to the SSL Minuette start line (135.25) and local maximum 135.64.

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The review was compiled without regard to the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index is:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power ratios correspond to the weights of currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula gives the index value to 100 on the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Dollar is strengthening, despite the prospect of the first Fed rate cut in 10 years

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The USD index reached two-month highs amid positive US statistics, as well as due to the weakness of its main competitors.

Last Friday, a moderate positive from GDP for the second quarter added to strong data on the US labor market, retail sales and industrial production.

Despite the fact that in the period under review, economic growth in the country slowed down in annual terms (from 3.1% in January-March to 2.1%), it exceeded the forecasts of analysts who expected a rise of 1.8%. At the same time, consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of US GDP, rose 4.3% yoy in April-June, compared with 1.1% in the first quarter.

In the light of the release of strong statistics on the United States, the chances of reducing the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at the July FOMC meeting decreased to 19%, but a little later they again rose above 21%.

For the first time since 2008, the US central bank is planning to ease monetary policy despite the longest economic expansion since 1854, record low unemployment and record highs of the S&P 500 index.

The two main reasons for the sharp change in the Fed's position, which last year actively used monetary tightening, are sluggish inflation and a slowdown in global GDP growth.

While consumer prices in the United States are not responding either to the expansion of domestic demand under the influence of large-scale fiscal stimulus or to a strong labor market, the Fed's desire to help the global economy contrasts sharply with the "First of all" slogan of the US president.

The greenback is strengthening not only due to the US economy's strength, but also because of the weakness of its main competitors. More than 90% of the global debt market instruments have a yield lower than the federal funds rate. For comparison: in 2015, their share was 50%. If non-US assets lose their attractiveness in the eyes of investors, why not increase the share of dollar-denominated securities in their portfolios?

Meanwhile, the positive statistics for the US "bears" for EUR/USD was not enough to bring quotes beyond the range of 1.11-1.119. Probably, market participants prefer to wait for the results of the July FOMC meeting to be announced.

If the reduction in the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in July is practically beyond doubt, then the Fed's further actions remain a mystery to traders.

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EUR/USD pair starts a busy week

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EUR/USD is trading near the 1,1100 mark, the trend remains downward, and the chart shows bearish signs. The relative strength index (RSI) is falling, the pair cannot consolidate even at the lowest support line - 1.1195, which is also a sign of a further fall. When a currency pair cannot restore positions on the previous support line - it has only has one direction - down. The EUR/USD pair failed to continue the rebound following Draghi's statements, and the main driving force behind the recent fall was the optimistic report on US GDP. US economic indicators have lowered expectations for significant monetary stimulus from the Fed, and lower rates will not mean the start of a new policy easing cycle.

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The moderate easing of the Fed contrasts with the ECB's strategy. So far, the European regulator abstained from any action, but laid the foundation for the announcement of a significant "package of measures" at its September meeting. Trade tensions between Europe and the United States intensify after French President Emmanuel Macron signed a law on the "digital tax" on technology companies, primarily American ones. Trump responded with a threat to introduce a tariff for French wines and other European products. Meanwhile, trade negotiations between the US and China are resuming in Shanghai - for the first time since May. All this time, the parties communicated only by phone, but now resume personal summits. Any positive news on the basis of these meetings will instantly affect the EUR/USD pair, and they will not be as good for the euro as for the dollar.

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Bitcoin and gold: who will be in the lead?

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According to a number of analysts, in the near future, primacy among reserve financial assets may be behind the number one cryptocurrency. At the same time, the yellow metal will retain its value, but will give way to Bitcoin. Currently, the leading digital currency is competing with gold in terms of popularity, analysts say.

Many participants of the cryptocurrency market are supporters of the replacement of central banks with a new system, based on the blockchain technology. One of the options for its implementation are operations with Bitcoin. An important advantage of the number one cryptocurrency is that analysts consider the fact that Bitcoin allows you to avoid hyperinflation. In the case of gold, which is provided in US dollars, this is not always possible.

At the moment, the leading virtual currency has the least correlation with traditional asset classes, such as fiat currencies and the yellow metal. According to analysts, in the near future, it will be more profitable for central banks to use Bitcoin. The advantages of this implementation are to obtain clean and efficient energy, waste minimization and sustainable economic growth. Analysts believe that the lack of Bitcoin is its high volatility, which is about 10 times higher than that of gold. However, the yellow metal, more than a digital asset, is at risk of counterfeiting.

In the long run, Bitcoin may win, but it loses to gold at a short distance. The number one cryptocurrency completes July with a noticeable decline after five months of growth.

Most analysts believe that in August, the price of Bitcoin will continue to fall, since the cryptocurrency has almost exhausted its growth potential. Analysts believe that the reason for the fall is the criticism from the largest market players and leading central banks, the uncertainty in the issue of regulation of the number one cryptocurrency and the negative news about hacking wallets and robbery cryptoforge.

According to Mike Novograts, the head of the company Galaxy Digital, the rate of BTC may fall to $8500, but in the future we can expect a rise to $20,000. According to the calculations of Gennady Nikolaev, an analyst at the Academy of Financial and Investment Management, Bitcoin moves towards the range of $3000– $ 6000 - the level at which it lasted in the second half of 2018 and in early 2019.

Closer to autumn, the leading digital asset will fall in price to $5,000 and lower, which is why many market players are now actively selling BTC, analysts say. The updated "bottom" of the cryptocurrency asset will be a mark of $7,000, and the resumption of its rally should be expected in September this year.

According to analysts, by the beginning of October, Bitcoin is able to give a surprise in the form of price increases, and the $16000 mark may be the limit of the number one cryptocurrency's breakthrough.

Many analysts believe that a number of factors are needed for Bitcoin's new growth pulse. First, the most impatient players must leave the market - those who decided to consolidate the losses. Secondly, the current rate of BTC should reach the local bottom. Thirdly, the market should consolidate at the time near the occupied levels, and only then a new wave of increase is possible, analysts conclude.

The number one cryptocurrency is considered a revolutionary asset for existing financial, monetary and auditing systems. This is the undoubted advantage of BTC over traditional defensive assets such as gold and currencies. The traditional yellow metal reduces its popularity among the younger generation. New market players believe the future is for more modern digital assets. According to Nate Gerasi, president of the ETF Store and leading investment consultant, the lion's share of millennial investors (about 90%) prefers Bitcoin to popular hedging assets, such as gold. "Sooner or later, the yellow metal will lose its luster and yield to bitcoin," summarizes N. Gerasi.

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Bitcoin exchange rate on 07/29/19. Price for 1 BTC - $9503.

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