BITCOIN Analysis for November 16, 2017

Bitcoin has been in a steady rally since it broke above the $7,000 price level recently which is expected to sustain further in the coming days. Bitcoin is currently behaving as a Mature Financial Instrument where the impulsive momentum is followed by correction and the supply and demand is kept in good balance. Though there have been some spikes along the way, but Bitcoin managed to regain the momentum and push higher. As the November fork was cancelled recently which led to the bearish pressure in the financial instrument did not quite managed to shake off the bulls from the path which signals that there are more higher highs waiting for the Cryptocurrency to climb on. As of the current situation, the price is showing some intraday corrections which is expected to lead to certain pullback towards the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line before surging up higher in the coming days with target towards $8,000 price area. As the price remains above $7,000 price level which is also supported by the Kumo Cloud, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for November 16, 2017

NZD has been weaker in comparison to USD recently which led to impulsive bearish pressure rejecting off the 0.6980 area. The price was quite indecisive after being pushed by the bulls towards 0.6980 area which turned into a bearish impulsive move amid recent positive economic reports from the US which reversed the market sentiment. Ahead of the long-awaited Fed Rate Hike in December, USD is expected to gain momentum over NZD which is expected to lead to further bearish momentum in the future. Today, USD was quite mixed in light of the economic reports which triggered certain volatility in the pair. Today, US Unemployment Claims report was published with unexpected growth to 249k from the previous figure of 239k which was expected to decrease to 235k, Import Prices decreased to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.8% which was expected to be at 0.4%, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report was published with a decrease to 22.7 from the previous figure of 27.9 which was expected to be at 24.5. Along with this series of worse economic reports today, Capacity Utilization Rate report was published with an increase to 77.0% from the previous value of 76.0% which was expected to be at 76.3% and Industrial Production report also showed some growth to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.5%. On the other hand, today there were no economic events or reports from New Zealand but tomorrow NZ PPI Input report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 1.2% from the previous value of 1.4%, PPI output report is expected to increase to 1.4% from the previous value of 1.3%, and Business NZ Manufacturing Index is expected to be quite neutral which previous was at 57.5. As for the current scenario, NZD has been quite weak in nature and upcoming economic reports forecasts were also quite mixed. Though the US had a series of worse economic reports today, the market sentiment is propping up the US currency amid growing expectations for a December rate hike. To sum up, USD is expected to keep momentum over NZD in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing just above the support area of 0.6810 which is expected to be retested soon. The price has been quite reactive to the dynamic level of 20 EMA before it pushed lower recently which indicates that the trend is currently showing some non-volatile price action behavior which is expected to push further downward in the coming days. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.70 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 16, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 112.70. The pair is rebounding from 112.45. The bullish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index advocates for a further upside.

Hence, as long as 112.70 holds on the upside, look for a return with targets at 113.50 and 113.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended above 112.70 with a target at 112.45.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.70, Take Profit: 113.50

Resistance levels: 113.50, 113.75 and 114.05 Support Levels: 112.45, 112.30, 112.00

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 16, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.9870. The pair stands above its key horizontal support at 0.9870, and is expected to post a new bounce. Besides, the relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality area at 50. The 20-period moving average is turning up, and advocates for a new rebound.

In conclusion, as long as 0.9870 is not broken, look for 0.9970 and 1.0015 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9870, Take Profit: 0.9970

Resistance levels: 0.9970, 0.9990, and 0.1035

Support levels: 0.9845, 0.9800, and 0.9765

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 16, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair stands firmly above its nearest support at 148.70, and is likely to post a new rebound towards 149.60. The 50-period moving average is still heading upward, and acts as a support role. In addition, the relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality area at 50.

In which case, as long as 148.70 is not broken, look for further advance to 149.60 and 150.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 148.70 with the target at 148.45.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 148.70, Take Profit: 149.60

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.60, 150.00 and 150.50

Support levels: 148.45, 148.10, and 147.70

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 16, 2017

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NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair posted some consolidations but is still under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.6890. The 20-period moving average is turning down and has just crossed below the 50-period one. The relative strength index has broken below its neutrality area at 50.

To conclude, as long as 0.6890 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.6820 and 0.6795 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6915, 0.6935, and 0.6975

Support levels: 0.6820, 0.6795, and 0.6745

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Global macro overview for 16/11/2017

Mark Carney, Governor of Bank of England, reiterated the need for a transitional process in leaving the European Union. Applying the above solution will minimize the occurrence of shocks not only in the island economy but also in the euro area. Carney declares that the BoE can use a broad range of instruments if necessary and admits that BoE will support economy whatever the Brexit deal outcome.

There are just three rounds of negotiations before December's EU summit, where EU leaders will have to decide (again) if sufficient progress has been made. Except for the recent "dovish hike" by Bank of England and self-evident Brexit uncertainty. the negotiations might have an impact on the British Pound exchange rate as well as the recent internal development on the UK political scene. Moreover, recent scandals are threatening PM May's thin majority and are likely to leave the Tory party (and May's leadership) weakened.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked inside of a horizontal zone between the levels of 148.01 - 150.32. The momentum in either direction is low as the indicator oscillates around its fifty level. The market participants are waiting for the breakout in this pair.

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Global macro overview for 16/11/2017

The unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.4%, while the most of market participants expected no change. This is a very good development, with the gradual reduction of spare capacity likely to eventually put pressure on wage growth again. Employment rose a modest 3.7k in October, following an upwardly revised gain of 27k in September (previously +20k). This continues the long run of monthly employment gains: this is the 13th straight monthly gain in jobs, the longest uninterrupted stretch since 1994 when the economy was dragging itself out of the very deep recession of the early 1990s. Full-time employment was strong as well with a rise of 24k against a fall of 21k in part-time jobs. This helped to drive another rise in hours worked (+0.3% m/m), which are now up 3.2% from October last year.

In conclusion, the improvement in the labour market is encouraging the further outlook in this sector of the Australian economy. The expansion in jobs growth is likely to continue (albeit at a more moderate pace) over the near term given the solid prospects for economic growth. Rising employment will support household income, but the spare capacity in the labour market must first be reduced before markets will see a meaningful acceleration in wages. This progression will lead to further appreciations of the Australian Dollar across the board.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading just above the important daily technical support at the level of 0.7570 in oversold conditions. Moreover, there is a Falling Wedge formation developing, which suggest a possible bounce towards the next technical resistance at the level of 0.7625. Only a sustained breakout above this level opens the road towards the important resistance at the level of 0.7732.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 16, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair pulled back just a few pips shy from the fibonacci 0.618 resistance but might have triggered the lower range of short entries suggested. We are still presenting a case of waves (1) and (2) on the charts here suggesting that the pair should be heading lower into wave (3) going forward. Please also note that it could still push higher towards 1.1900 levels before terminating wave (2) as shown here. There are alternative scenarios possible which we shall discuss at the right time. Resistance is lined up at 1.1880/90 levels while support should be at the back side of the trend line being tested now. Watch out for 1.1725 levels providing initial price support if prices manage to reach there. A continued drop below 1.1670 levels would confirm that a meaningful top is in place and that the pair is heading south.

Trading plan:

Please take short-term profit on the sell positions taken yesterday and remain flat. Again look to sell around 1.1880/1.1900 levels.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index has found support around the 93.50 levels yesterday, which is also the fibonacci 0.382 support of the entire rally between 91.00 through 95.15 levels respectively. We are still presenting the highest probable wave counts as wave (1) and (2) being completed or as an alternative wave 4 got terminated yesterday around 93.40 and the 5th wave should push prices higher towards 95.30/50 levels respectively. In both the above cases, the US Dollar Index stands to raise its levels from here. Keeping this in mind, a safe trading strategy could be to remain long and also look to buy on dips further. As an alternative count, the index is seen to be testing the back side of its former support trendline and a bearish reversal here could push prices even lower towards 93.00 levels, which is also the next level of support.

Trading plan:

It is safe to book profits on long positions taken yesterday and remain flat. Also look to buy lower again around 93.00 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for GBP BOE's Carney, Broadbent, Cunliffe, Place, Ramsden, Woods Speak at 0900 AM EST

Good luck!

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Bitcoin analysis for November 16, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.528. One of the earliest references to hyperbitcoinization (H-theory) derives from the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute. It describes a world waiting for bitcoin in the borderless, peer-to-peer sense. Especially true for emerging economies prone to inflation, hyperbitcoinization is an adoption theory with radical implications. Until recently, it was only a theory. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found that buyers are in control today and that selling looks risky. The price is trading above the pivot level ($7.049), whicih is sign another sign that selling looks risky. The upward target is set at the price of $7.845.

Support/Resistance

$7.566 – Pivot resistance 1

$7.845 – Pivot resistance 2

$7.049 – Pivot level

$6.7585 – Pivot support 1

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 16, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1756. According to the 15 time - frame, I found successful rejection from the pivot support 1 at the price of 1.1763, which is sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. The upwards targets are set at the price of 1.1811 (pivot level) and at the price of 1.1839 (pivot resistance 1).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1812

R2: 1.1839

R3: 1.1888

Support levels:

S1: 1.1763

S2: 1.1736

S3: 1.1687

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis for November 16, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 113.18. According to the 30 time - frame, I found a rising wedge in progress, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward target is set at the price of 112.47 (swing low),

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.42

R2: 113.96

R3: 114.40

Support levels:

S1: 112.40

S2: 111.93

S3: 111.38

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 16, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair faces resistance at 0.9910 since two days, while strong resistance is seen at 0.9966. Support levels are found at the 0.9870 and 0.9782 levels.
  • Today, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from 0.9910 level. The pair could fall from 0.9910 level to the first support around 0.9870.
  • In consequence, if the USD/CHF pair will break support at 0.9870, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H4 time frame, the 0.9910 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.9910 level towards the target at 0.9870.
  • In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.9870 level , the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.9870 level in order to reach the second target at 0.9782.
  • On the other hand, the 0.9782 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.9782 level as long as this level is not breached. in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario above the area of 0.9782.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 16, 2017

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Overview:

  • Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 0.6875 towards 0.6844. Now, the price is set at 0.6850. On the H1 chart, the resistance of NZD/USD pair is seen at the level of 0.6875 and 0.6895. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.6822 and 0.6800 in coming hours. Moreover, the price spot of 0.6875/0.6895 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6875, sell below 0.6875 with the first target at 0.6822 in order to test the first support. Additionally, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6822, the market will decline further to 0.6800. Also, it should be noticed that support 2 is seen at the level of 0.6800. However, the stop loss should be placed above the price of 0.6900.
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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for November 16, 2017

AUD/USD has been quite volatile with the recent bearish pressure since it broke below the 0.7750 price level. The price did not have much retest or stronger pullback towards the horizontal and dynamic level but still the bearish pressure was quite stable to push the price lower in a sustainable manner. Today, Australia's Employment Change report was published with a worse figure of 3.7k decreasing from the previous figure of 26.6k which was expected to be at 17.8k, Unemployment Rate report showed a slight decrease to 5.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 5.5%, and MI Inflation Expectations report also showed a decrease to 3.7% from the previous value of 4.3%.On the other hand, today US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to have a better result of 235k decreasing from the previous figure of 239k, Import Prices is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.7%, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report is expected to decrease to 24.5 from the previous figure of 27.9, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to have a slight increase to 76.3% from the previous value of 76.0%, and Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.3%. As for the current scenario, the economic reports from Australia was not quite up to the mark and did not contribute well into the gains of the aussie dollar against USD whereas most of the economic reports from the US today are forecasted to have mixed outcome which put the market into indecision now. If the US reports come better than expected that is the most probable scenario, then USD is set to advance further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently quite indecisive but with steady gains on the downside that indicates that the bears are still dominating the market. The price is residing below the resistance area of 0.7750-0.7850 alongside the dynamic level of 20 EMA, acting as resistance. As the price remains below the resistance area and dynamic level of 20 EMA, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further with target towards 0.7500 soon.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 16, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Trade recommendations:

If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 16, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if enough bearish momentum is maintained. (Note the shooting-star daily candlestick of Yesterday).

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The euro loses momentum

Eurozone

The statistical data published at the beginning of the week for the euro area supported the rapid growth of the euro. The German ZEW indices continued to show signs of continued recovery in Europe's largest economy while industrial production fell slightly in September. However, there was an impressive 3.3% year-on-year growth. The euro zone's trade surplus continues to increase and it reached EUR 25.0 billion in September from 21.6 billion a month earlier.

Preliminary data on the GDP in Q3 came at the level of expectations with an annual growth of 2.5% which is stable. Included with it are the monthly fluctuations which are significantly less than in the US. This positively affects the investment climate.

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On Wednesday, the euro could continue the rally if the data on inflation in the US came out worse than expected. However, in October, core inflation finally showed an increase of 0.2%. On the whole, inflation data came out in favor of the dollar and further euro growth was stopped.

Today, Eurostat will publish a report on consumer inflation for the euro area and further euro dynamics will depend on the correspondence of real figures to expectations. The dollar continues to be a favorite in the main currency pair and the euro will be used by players for sales. The medium-term target of 1.1420 remains relevant.

United Kingdom

The decision of the Bank of England to raise the rate may be hasty. Weak macroeconomic data does not give any confidence that price increases are systemic. Producer prices in October grew weaker than expectations and weaker than in September. Consumer inflation rose by just 0.1% against 0.3% a month earlier and although the annual growth rate remained unchanged at 3%, there is doubt about further positive dynamics.

First of all, it concerns the labor market. Despite the fact that the unemployment rate in September remained at the level of 4.3%, which fully corresponds to the level of full employment, the number of other indicators still looks weak. The average duration of the working week continues to be well below pre-crisis levels and the growth of the average wage does not inspire any optimism and is not able to provide an increase in demand in the consumer market.

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Today, a report on retail sales for October will be published. The forecasts are extremely weak. Instead of the necessary growth, sales are forecast to decline. Weak data will put pressure on the pound which may resume decline by the end of the week which will probably be a re-testing of the psychologically important level of 1.30.

Oil

Despite the fears of a deep correction, oil prices stayed above $ 61 / bbl, remaining within the rising channel. Record growth in US inventories did not have a noticeable effect on players and respite was used to fix profits.

So far there is no evidence that investments have started to return to the industry in the US. Slate producers do not increase production volumes, as this will require significant drilling, given the rapid depletion of wells drilled in the last 2-3 years. The countries of OPEC + demonstrate calmness. It is already clear that the situation with the prolongation of the announcement will not get out of control because of possible disagreements.

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Bitcoin analysis for 16/11/2017

With increasing interest in cryptocurrencies, more regulators criticize ICO and Blockchain technologies. However, the Executive Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Yao Loong Ng, accepts a different position and encourages regulators around the world to broaden their knowledge of the cryptospace.

Ng stresses that the development of this area can be a good lesson for regulators. In his commentary at the panel discussion at the Association of Southeast Asian Capital Markets (ASEAN), held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in early November 2017, he stated that the time to market ICO offerings was significantly shorter than the introduction Public offering (IPO). He said: "If the process of writing a white paper for an ICO project and implementing it on the stock market takes several days, then surely it is something that we can learn." MAS also warns its citizens. In August, it issued a notice advising investors to take precautionary measures regarding the potential risks associated with ICO and digital currency.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. After breaking above the key resistance at the level of $6,983, the next target for the price is the level of $7,695, where the length of the wave a is equal to the length of the wave b. If the main wave scenario is correct, then the price should reverse and drop towards the low of the wave 1 or A at the level of $5,534.

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Wave analysis of USDX for November 16, 2017

The Dollar index has made a reversal day yesterday. Price is bouncing off the 38% Fibonacci retracement and price action increases the chances of the two wave scenarios we posted yesterday.

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Price is trading above the daily Ichimoku cloud. Price has reached the 38% Fibonacci level and is bouncing. Yesterday's candle formation was a doji star reversal pattern. Price could very well have ended wave 2 or wave B down. Support is at 93.10-92.65. Resistance is at 94.20-94.50.

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On a weekly basis price has touched the weekly tenkan-sen (red line indicator) and bounced. Resistance is at 94.60. A break above that level will push price towards the recent highs again. A break above recent highs will push the index towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the weekly Kumo (cloud).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 16/11/2017

Sentiment on Thursday looks a bit better than yesterday and risk aversion was slightly forgotten during the Asian part of the trading session. Stock markets and oil are slowly climbing up, better off the emerging markets currency. Among the main currencies is quite calm. EUR/USD is stopped at 1.1800 and USD/JPY is trading at 113. AUD is the best performer that has found support the labor market report.

On Thursday 16th of November, the event calendar is busy with important news releases. During the London session, the Uk will release Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data, Eurozone will post Consumer Price Index data. During the US session, Canada will present Manufacturing Sales data and the US will reveal Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims, Import Price Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data. Plenty of speeches will be made today especially from the Bank of England representatives: BOE Governor Mark Carney, BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent, BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe, BOE Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Sir David Ramsden and BOE Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation Sam Woods. Then FOMC Member Loretta Mester will give a speech. Then SNB Member of the Governing Board Andrea Maechler will also say a few words. At the end of the day, two more FOMC members will speak: Robert Kaplan and Lael Brainard.

GBP/USD analysis for 16/11/2017:

The publication of data from the British labor market did not shake the Pound Sterling too much, which strongly supports levels at the end of yesterday's close. The latest data showed a slight increase in the average weekly wage in September (2.2% y/y, consensus: 2.1%), while revising the August index for an additional 0.1%. Unemployment remains stable at 4.3%. Today the UK will release Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Plenty of speakers from the Bank of England might cause an increased volatility on GBP pairs and crosses. The most important one is the speech of BoE Governor Mark Carney and it is expected, that he might comment about the recent "dovish hike" again, so it is worth to keep an eye.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had bounced from the technical support at the level of 0.8732 and since then is trying to break out above the 50% Fibo at the level of 0.9019. Nevertheless, the resistance zone between the levels of 0.9017 - 0.9047 is strong enough to reverse any attempt to rally higher. The nearest support for the price is seen at the level of 0.8938.

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Market Snapshot: Gold reverses at the channel line

The price of Gold has reversed after hitting the channel upper line around the level of $1,290. Currently, the price got back to the consolidation zone which starts to look like a bearish flag pattern. The next support is seen at the level of $1,268, but the key level to the downside remains at the level of $1,260.

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Market Snapshot: SPY makes a sequence of lower highs

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has made another lower high and a lower low after the top at the level of 259.32 points, which might indicate a deeper correction is in progress. Nevertheless, so far the drop from 259.32 to 255.58 might be considered as a pull-back, not a reversal. To trigger the deeper correction, the price must violate the level of 253.97.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 16, 2017

Gold price re-tested the important resistance of $1,283-88 but got rejected once again. Despite Dollar's weakness, Gold did not break above the resistance. This was a bearish sign. The other bearish sign we noted yesterday was the form of the rise from $1,262 that was not an impulsive, but overlapping corrective structure. This increased the chances of a reversal.

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Blue lines - sideways channel

Gold price reached the upper channel boundary and got rejected. Price is now again below the 4-hour Kumo. Yesterday, we noted that despite price being above the 4-hour Kumo, trend was neutral as price was not making any progress to the upside. Price is still mainly moving sideways. If Dollar strengthens, I expect to see support at $1,262 get broken. This implies that we should fall towards $1,250-45.

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Magenta line - resistance

Red line - short-term trend line resistance

Blue line -long-term trend line support

Gold price has broken again below the tenkan-sen in the daily chart as price got rejected once again at the kijun-sen. Trend remains bearish and Gold is heading towards the blue long-term upward sloping support trend line. There we should finally see an important low in Gold.

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Last minute burning forecast 16.11.2017

Last minute burning forecast 16.11.2017

EURUSD: Buying with the rollback.

On Wednesday, important news from the US was released: inflation for October and retail sales. In general, the news was moderate - inflation did not increase as much, the current level is at 1.8% (excluding gasoline and food) per annum. The Fed has no reason in particular to accelerate the rate hike - the lower threshold of the Fed's inflation target is +2%. Retail sales grew moderately, which is below forecasts.

Therefore, the news is not in favor of the US dollar. The EURUSD pair showed a sharp growth for Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, it showed a moderate pullback.

Conclusion: The momentum of growth for the euro remains. However, buying from the rollback.

Buy from 1.1740 and from 1.1700.

In the event that buying is executed from 1.1700, likely buy from 1.1740, it makes sense to go for a break-even.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 16, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD is currently testing the previous high at 1.7216. This resistance will likely be able to cap the upside shortly, but it should just be a matter of time before this resistance is broken for a continuation higher towards 1.7770 as the next upside target.

Short-term support is seen at 1.1714 and again at 1.7085. The later is expected to protect the downside of the break above 1.7216.

R3: 1.7439

R2: 1.7273

R1: 1.7216

Pivot: 1.7114

S1: 1.7085

S2: 1.7068

S3: 1.7049

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6770 with stop placed at 1.6900.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 16, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Final Core CPI y/y, Final CPI y/y, and Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, and Import Prices m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1838.

Strong Resistance:1.1831.

Original Resistance: 1.181920.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1809.

Target Inner Area: 1.1781.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1753.

Original Support: 1.1742.

Strong Support: 1.1731.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1724.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 16, 2017

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In Asia, Japan today will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Natural Gas Storage, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, and Import Prices m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.51.

Resistance. 2: 113.29.

Resistance. 1: 113.07.

Support. 1: 112.83.

Support. 2: 112.61.

Support. 3: 112.35.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Gold emerges from sleep mode

The problems surrounding the tax reform and the related weakness of the US dollar allowed "bulls" for the XAU/USD to go into a counter-attack. Gold enjoys an increased demand for safe-haven during conditions when the risks of correction of the S&P 500 significantly grows. Indeed, the desire of Senate Republicans to connect its plan of repairing the fiscal system with the dismantling of Obamacare, appears to be ideal. To a certain degree, the chances of a compromise plan through Congress before the end of 2017 are extremely low, even though Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin and economic adviser to the President Gary Cohn claim otherwise. Along with the approaching date when the problem of the ceiling of the national debt should be solved, this factor forces investors to get rid of the shares.

The tightening of monetary policy and the reduction in the balance sheet of the Fed are "bearish" drivers for the S&P 500, which grew due to hopes of an implementation in the tax reform. Now this prize at the stock index is ready for the taking. As a result, investors flee from risk, which is clearly visible as currencies of developing countries are being sold. I do not think that the panic will last long. The Fed remains committed to an extremely slow normalization, the health of the US economy does not cause concern, and the devaluation of the dollar contributes to improved corporate earnings reports. This is not the best news for the recovery of the precious metal from the "bullish" trend in the US stock market.

For more than a month, gold traded in the range of 3.3%, the narrowest since February 2013, while its volatility is at its lowest level in the last 7 years. The yellow metal went into a sleep mode, bulls expect to support short-term drivers of growth, while the medium and long-term outlook for XAU/USD appears "bearish." When central banks move from unconventional to traditional monetary policy, and the global yield of debt markets begins to move away from the area of long-term lows, it is possible to forget about the recovery of the long-term upward trend.

Dynamics of the yield of US and gold bonds

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Source: Bloomberg.

At the same time, record shows that from June 2004 to June 2006, when the federal funds rate increased to 5.25%, gold prices rose 50%. From June 1999 to May 2000, the growth rate to 6.5% allowed the precious metal to add 6% to its value. What's the problem? In my opinion, parallels are unlikely to hold parallels, because the asset reacts sensitively to real rates of the debt market, and in conditions of sluggish inflation, the increase in nominal yield will put pressure on prices. Simply put, reasons must be sought in different CPI growth rates in the 2000s and now. It is highly unlikely that the XAU/USD pair will rise above $1,500 an ounce before the US economy plunges into a new recession.

Technically, the release of precious metals beyond the downstream channel increases the risk of an activation of the "Dragon" pattern and the continuation of a downward trend in the direction of $1320 per ounce and above. In order for this scenario to turn into reality, a strike on $1302 is required.

Gold, daily chart

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 16, 2017

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Wave summary:

Wave ii most likely completed with the test of 133.89 and a new impulsive decline to below 131.60 is now expected. A firm break below support at 131.60 will confirm continuation lower to 128.36 and 123.43 in wave (E).

Under this count resistance at 134.50 must cap the upside for a break below 131.88 and more importantly below 131.60. As a break above 134.50 will reinstate the "old" wave (D) target at 137.37.

R3: 134.50

R2: 134.13

R1: 133.89

Pivot: 132.75

S1: 132.30

S2: 131.88

S3: 131.36

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 133.10 with stop placed at 134.55

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AUD/JPY looking for a bounce above major support

The price continues to inch lower and we're starting to see major support at 85.53 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) where we expect a bounce from to push the price up to at least 86.67 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89,3,1) is seeing major support above 1.1% where we expect a corresponding bounce from.

Buy above 85.53. Stop loss is at 84.92. Take profit is at 86.67.

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USD/CHF dropping really nicely from selling area, remain bearish

The price has continued to drop really nicely after breaking our key support area. We look to remain bearish and sell on strength below 0.9925 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, pullback resistance) for a strong push down to at least 0.9826 support (head and shoulders exit potential, pullback support, Fibonacci extension).

RSI (89) is under a lot of downside pressure.

Sell below 0.9925. Stop loss is at 0.9991. Take profit is at 0.9826.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 16, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD tested the resistance line at 1.1850 and then pulled back. Price has gained 200 pips this week; and thus, the pullback pales into insignificance when compared to the ongoing buying pressure in the market. The resistance line at 1.1850 would be tested again, and then beached to the upside as the market goes further northwards.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF tested the support level at 0.9850 and then bounced upwards. Price has lost 110 pips this week; and thus, the upwards bounce is inferior when compared to the ongoing selling pressure in the market. The support level at 0.9850 would be tested again, and then beached to the downside as the market goes further southwards.

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GBP/USD: The choppy situation on the GBP/USD remains unchanged. A directional bias is expected this week, when price either goes above the distribution territory at 1.3300, or it goes below the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (either of these would require a strong buying or selling pressure).

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY tested the demand level at 112.50 and then bounced upwards. However, the bias on the market is bearish, and so, it is expected that price would go downwards again, testing the demand level at 112.50, and breaching it to the downside. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have an impact on the market.

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EUR/JPY: This cross made a commendable bullish effort on Monday and Tuesday and then pulled back on Wednesday. There is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The RSI period 14 remains above the level 50, while the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56. Unless the demand zone at 132.00 is breached to the downside, the bullish outlook would be logical.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 16, 2017

USDX remains under pressure as the bears are trying to take the index to lower levels in the short-term. Currently, it's being supported by the 93.55 level and such area could give up in order to extend the decline towards the 93.12 level. To the upside, nearest resistance lies at 93.98, which should be invalidated in order to test the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.98 / 94.60

H1 chart's support levels: 93.55 / 93.12

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.55, take profit is at 93.12 and stop loss is at 93.97.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 16, 2017

GBP/USD remains capped by the resistance level of 1.3201, waiting for a catalyst that helps do a decisive move in coming hours or days. The 200 SMA at the H1 chart is acting as a dynamic support across the board, but thanks to the bearish price action, we can expect a leg lower below that moving average, towards the support zone of 1.3037.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3201 / 1.3309

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3037 / 1.2880

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3037, take profit is at 1.2880 and stop loss is at 1.3193.

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Video Technical Analysis | 15th November 2017

Will EUR/USD drop from here? It looks like we are seeing some massive resistance!

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