Gold technical analysis for January 20, 2016

Gold price continues to trade sideways. It is still inside an upward sloping channel in an overlapping price structure. The bullish scenario is still alive for a move towards $1,120. Support at $1,070 is critical.

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Red lines -bullish channel

Gold price is trying to break above the short-term Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. The level of $1,097 is short-term resistance. If it gets broken, we can expect a re-test of a recent high at $1,110 and most probably a new higher high towards $1,120. Support is found at $1,070.

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Red lines - downward sloping wedge

Gold price has made the first move for a stronger bounce. Has initially tested the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) resistance and got rejected. The price held above the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). This is a bullish sign. However, bulls need to show more strength and break above the kijun-sen on a weekly closing basis in order to move the price towards the cloud resistance.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 20, 2016

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Wave summary:

The correction moved deeper than we had expected hitting 1.6637 as a low. The decline to 1.6637 did not change anything and we are still looking for an upside acceleration towards 1.7641 and 1.8020 as the next major upside targets.

In the short term, we will be looking for a minor correction lower to 1.7070 and possibly even lower to 1.6970 before the next rally higher to 1.7641.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6640 was unfortunately hit, but for a massive profit. However, we want to buy EUR again at 1.7085 or upon a breakout above 1.7210. We will start by placing our stop at 1.6635 expecting it to move higher soon.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 20, 2016

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Wave summary:

The triangle consolidation we have been tracking over the last two weeks is finally over and we should now see resistance at 128.75 protecting the upside for a downside thrust out of the triangle and a decline towards 126.05 and 125.45 as the next downside targets. In the longer term, we continue to look for even lower levels near 123.16 and possibly even lower to 117.37.

Only an unexpected breakout above 128.75 will indicate an upside thrust out of the triangle and a rally to 129.79 before moving lower again.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 130.95 with stop placed at 128.80. If you are not short EUR, then sell near 128.20 or upon a breakout below minor support at 127.96 and place your stop at 128.80 too.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 20, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news on the German PPI m/m is due to be released. The US will publish the economic data on the Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, and Building Permits. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0974.

Strong Resistance:1.0968.

Original Resistance: 1.0957.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0946.

Target Inner Area: 1.0921.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0896.

Original Support: 1.0885.

Strong Support: 1.0874.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0868.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Januari 20, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will publish economic data on the Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m, Building Permits. So, there is a strong probability that the SD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 117.88.

Resistance. 2: 117.65.

Resistance. 1: 117.42.

Support. 1: 117.13.

Support. 2: 116.90.

Support. 3: 116.67.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 20, 2016

EUR/USD: A bias is neutral in the near term, just like in the USD/CHF pair. The EMA 11 is slightly above the EMA 56, but the Williams' % Range period 20 does not give any directional clue. It might be helpful to stay away from this market now.

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USD/CHF: The trend in this pair is neutral in the near-term because it has not made any strong directional movement in recent times. There are short-term upswings and downswings in the market, but a predictable directional movement is anticipated this week or next week, which would most probably favor bears.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair moved downwards by over 110 pips this week. The market came down by at least 1050 pips since the middle of December 2015. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the price is likely to continue going downwards, reaching the accumulation territories of 1.4100 and 1.4050.

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USD/JPY: USD/JPY traded sideways on Tuesday. We would still like to call attention to an extant bearish outlook for the market (just as for certain other JPY pairs). The price is likely to continue trending further downwards this week, reaching the demand levels of 116.00 and 115.50.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair moved simply sideways on Tuesday. The bias is bearish in the near-term and we may see a breakout to the upside or the downside today, owing to the expected fundamental figures, which might have impact on the markets. The events affecting the euro would surely have impact on this cross.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 20, 2016

The USDX is still trading above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, but the resistance level of 99.22 is rejecting the current price action. Also, we should note that moving average is offering dynamic support at the current stage. However, a breakout above the level of 99.22 will open the doors to test the level of 99.49. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.22 / 99.49

H1 chart's support levels: 98.79 / 98.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.22, take profit is at 99.49, and stop loss is at 98.94.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 20, 2016

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is reaching new multi-year lows, after a breakout below the support level of 1.4198. Currently, we are expecting a lower low pattern formation which could deliver more declines, as the 200 SMA still points to the downside. Fractals are also showing a well-established bearish structure. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4309 / 1.4373

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4198 / 1.4080

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 1.4198, take profit is at 1.4080, and stop loss is at 1.4309.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 19, 2016

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USD/JPY is turning upwards. US stock markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Oil prices continued their slump with the West Texas Intermediate futures trading down 1.6% at $28.94 a barrel, and the Brent crude futures, which once touched a nearly 13-year low at $27.67 a barrel, falling 1.4% to $28.55 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remained firm against most other major currencies. The pair has just broken above the key resistance at 117.20 turning the intraday outlook to bullish. Currently, it is trading around the upper Bollinger band as those bands are widening. At the same time, the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average stays above the 50-period one, and the intraday relative strength index is well directed within the buying area between 50 and 70. The bullish intraday outlook is therefore expected to persist. The first upside target is set at 118.35 (level of overlapping resistance and support); and the second one, at 118.75 (around the high of January 13).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.35. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.75. The pivot point stands at 117.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 116.80 and the second target at 116.50.

Resistance levels: 118.35, 118.75, 119.25

Support levels: 116.80, 116.50, 116

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 19, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is at 1.0090. The pair still remains under pressure below its nearest resistance at 0.6490, which is expected to hold any potential upsides. The key moving averages are mixed to bearish, while the relative strength index is turning up, but lacks strong upward momentum. In these perspectives, as long as 1.0090 is not clearly surpassed, look for a return to 1.00 and 0.9955 in extension.

Trading reccomendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.00. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9955. The pivot point stands at 1.0090. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0140 and the second target at 1.0179.

Resistance levels: 1.0140, 1.0170, 1.0210

Support levels: 1.00, 0.9955, 0.99

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 19, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range as the bias remains bullish. The pair stays above its key support at 0.6435 and remains on the upside. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Further upside is therefore expected with the next horizontal resistance and overlap set at 0.6540 at first. A break above this level would call for further advance toward 0.6580.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6540 and the second target at 0.6580. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6410 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6365. The pivot point is at 0.6435.

Resistance levels: 0.6540, 0.6580, 0.6610

Support levels: 0.6410, 0.6365, 0.6335

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for January 19, 2016

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Overview

As the minor resistance at 118.37 is intact, further fall could still be seen. But price actions from 125.85 are still viewed as a sideways consolidation pattern. Thus, we expect the strong support from 116.13 to bring a rebound. Breaches above the mark of 118.37 will turn bias back to the upside for the 120.33 support that turned into resistance. Nevertheless, a sustained break of 116.13 will indicates that it is a deeper medium-term correction. At this point, we are viewing it as a sideways pattern and expect the strong support around 116.13 to contain the downside. However, a sustained break of 116.13 will indicate that the corrective fall from 125.85 would extend to the 38.2% retracement of 75.56 (low of 2011) to 125.85 at 106.63 and lower.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.88; (P) 117.16; (R1) 117.59

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Daily analysis of Silver for January 19, 2016

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Overview

The tight range continues dominating. The silver price is hovering around the EMA50 and around 13.96 level. So there is no change in the sideways trading scenario confined between the 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance. The price is waiting to exit this range to detect the next track on a short-term basis clearly. Breaking the 13.65 level will push the price to resume the main bearish trend which targets 13.00, while breaching the mark of 14.25 represents the key of starting bullish correction that targets 14.67 followed by 15.30 levels on a near-term basis. The silver price showed a quick positive attempt to approach the 14.25 level, but it bounced down to settle around 13.96 again. It keeps the domination of the sideways range valid in intraday trading, with its lines represented by the 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance. We remind you that a break of the mentioned levels will offer clearer signals for the next targets on an intraday and short-term bases.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 19, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is at 168.20. The pair stays below its key resistance at 168.20 and remains under pressure. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 166.20. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness towards 165.45.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 166.20. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 165.45. The pivot point stands at 168.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 169 and the second target at 169.85.

Resistance levels: 169, 169.85, 170.45

Support levels: 166.20, 165.45, 165

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 19, 2016

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Overview

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the long-term Fibonacci level at 165.67. A break will target the 161.8% projection of 195.86 to 180.36 from 188.79 at 163.71. On the upside, breaks above the minor resistance of 170.57 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. The current development confirmed medium-term topping at 195.86 on a bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. A fall from 195.86 is currently viewed as a correction and would first target 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. Based on the current momentum, the correction would likely extend to 61.8% retracement at 147.01 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.26; (P) 167.20; (R1) 168.03

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