Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 24, 2020.

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Update on the virus: the main foci of the coronavirus pandemic are Western Europe and the United States.

Italy - has 64,000 cases (increases more than 10% per day)

US - has 46,100 cases

Spain - has 35,100 cases

Germany - has 29,300 cases

France - has 19,900 cases

Britain - has 6,700 cases

Switzerland - has 8,800 cases

Britain has now imposed a full quarantine on the population, admitting that its original plan against the virus was wrong.

Anyhow, there is positive news for Italy! For two days, deaths caused by the coronavirus have decreased. Perhaps, we are now close to the breaking point of the virus, and the quarantine has finally begun to take effect.

Meanwhile, forecasts for the economy of developed countries are getting worse, while measures to support the economy are being strengthened.

Britain - GDP is forecasted to fall by 10% in the first half of the year.

US - according to Morgan Stanley,GDP is forecasted to fall to minus 30% in the second quarter.

Germany is preparing a huge package of assistance worth 750 billion euros. It is also offering a package of assistance to Italy, and the discussion about it will happen on Tuesday, March 24.

The US Congress did not pass the $ 1.6 trillion aid package. Democrats believe that although it will increase the share of aid to ordinary Americans, it will reduce the aid to businesses. Trump also called to help Boeing, who asked for $ 60 billion.

In addition, major US companies have started laying off workers, so a sharp increase to 500-750 thousand in applications for unemployment benefits is expected.

On Monday, the US Federal Reserve adopted a new package of market support: bond purchases of up to $ 30 billion a day

An update on the pandemic: the number of cases is growing at a high rate of at least 10% per day. There are now 381 thousand cases in total, where 100,000 of those have recovered, but mostly in China and South Korea. 16,500 people have died due to the virus.

EUR/USD: the pair is consolidating.

Be ready to sell after a strong rebound to the top, from 1.0940 and higher.

There are possible sales from 1.0635 and downwards.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fed's monetary hysteria will only have a temporary effect; Overview of NZD/USD and AUD/USD pairs

Yesterday, the US Federal reserve announced the launch of unlimited quantitative easing, a move that was unimaginable a couple of weeks ago. Bernanke's idea of throwing money from a helicopter finally gets real. If earlier, the FOMC announced that it would buy at least $ 500 billion of treasury securities and at least $ 200 billion of mortgage-backed securities, these intentions have now been transformed into a promise to "purchase treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities of agencies in the amount necessary to ensure uninterrupted functioning of the market." That is, without any visible restrictions.

The Fed is now a direct lender of last resort, not only for the financial system, but also for the real economy – up to 300 billion will be provided to employers, consumers and enterprises in the form of a new financing mechanism. The Ministry of Finance, using the Currency Stabilization Fund (ESF), will provide capital in the amount of 30 billion US dollars. Two mechanisms are also being created to support lending to large employers: the Primary Market Corporate Credit Line (PMCCF) to issue new bonds and loans and the Secondary Corporate Credit Line (SMCCF) to provide liquidity for outstanding corporate bonds. Another mechanism is created for the flow of loans to consumers and enterprises, separately - to provide loans to municipalities, it is planned to launch a lending program "main street" to support small and medium-sized enterprises.

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All these measures are taken in addition to previously announced, and not to replace them. As part of the "old QE," the Fed plans to conduct operations totaling about $ 75 billion in Treasury securities and about $ 50 billion from MBS every business day this week.

These are astronomical figures, from which a very unpleasant conclusion follows - the US financial system is on the verge of collapse.

However, one more mechanism remained that the Fed has not yet reached a hand is the direct redemption of commodity futures, primarily oil, in order to support the sales market for manufacturers. Given the fact that the mechanism of payments for oil is international and affects the interests of many countries, such a step can provoke absolutely unpredictable consequences.

NZD/USD

In addition to the actions of the RBNZ, the Government of New Zealand announced the launch of a tax incentive program. Despite this, the government is oriented towards a recession, which cannot be avoided, and plans to prepare a number of additional measures by May.

Everyone expects RBNZ to launch an asset buyback program, which should also start in the very near future.

The CFTC report showed a slight change in demand for NZD, the estimated price is still significantly higher than the spot.

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On the other hand, ANZ Bank suggests that, despite all the measures taken, New Zealand's GDP decline may reach 9%. Such gloomy forecasts hinder the recovery of the kiwi in order to return to the level of 0.60. Therefore, it is necessary to wait until the Fed can pump up markets with liquidity and demand for the dollar declines. These restrictions will not allow NZD to develop a full correction. Sales are highly likely to take on a larger scale in the resistance zone 0.5915 / 85.

AUD/USD

The first data for March, as expected, worsened significantly - PMI in the service sector declined from 49p to 39.8p, while composite index from 49p to 40.7p. The RBA launched its own economic support program, bonds worth $ 5 billion were bought back on Friday, the government announced the launch of a package of tax incentives worth $ 56 billion in addition to the previously adopted package of 17.6 billion.

In any case, a reduction in GDP is inevitable. The states of New South Wales and Victoria announced the introduction of quarantine, and we already have a good idea of the quarantine effect on the economy in China, Europe and the USA.

Oddly enough, the estimated fair price continues to grow - unlike other commodity currencies, AUD was in demand last week. CFTC noted a decrease in the total short position by 1.79 billion.

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The reason for supporting the Australian currency is unclear, perhaps investors are guided by a faster than expected recovery of China.

Now, AUD/USD is trying to push off the low of March 19 and these attempts may succeed given the direction of the estimated price. The nearest resistance is the level of 0.5985, breaking through above will add to the bulls' arguments. Strong growth in stock markets on Tuesday morning also supports the growth of the Aussie.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Positive news from China and Fed's unprecedented QE measures put pressure on the dollar (we expect AUD/USD pair to grow and

The US dollar does not respond to unprecedented measures of stimulating the US economy, which in recent weeks have been extended almost indefinitely in recent weeks by the initiatives of the Federal reserve and the US Treasury Department.

So on Monday, the Fed announced the purchase of assets without restrictions to support the financial market. The content of these programs is expressed in the purchase of assets in accordance with quantitative easing measures (QE). In addition, there is already a program for business lending to companies aimed at maintaining their creditworthiness. There will also be many new incentive measures. For the first time, the regulator will switch to the purchase of corporate bonds by purchasing investment-grade securities in both the primary and secondary markets through exchange-traded funds. It can be recalled that earlier after the crisis of 2008-09, the Fed did not resort to such measures during three programs of quantitative easing.

At the same time, the Central Bank has already launched a number of programs since yesterday. But so far, there has been no clear reaction in the markets. Everyone is so passionate about the coronavirus that they just don't want to notice it, although it seems to us that this state of affairs will continue until the situation with the spread of coronavirus in Europe and the USA is stabilized. In this case, the market sentiment will begin to change one hundred and eighty degrees. The US dollar will be hit hard, and the demand for the company's shares will begin to grow exponentially as the news arrives on the market, similar to those that are coming from China. There, the disease has already begun to diminish, and the local economy is recovering.

Today, the news from the "middle Kingdom " that the country opens its borders tomorrow has led to the growth of the local stock market. In general, Asian major stock indexes are noticeably adding. South Korean is growing by more than 8%, Japanese by 7%, and Chinese continental indices are adding at the moment, from about 2 to 3%. Meanwhile, US and European stock index futures are also trading more than 4%. We expect that trading in Europe will open with rising indices, and the United States expects the same.

Now, let's go back to the currency market. In the wake of China's positivity, the dollar is under pressure across the entire spectrum of the market for major currencies. In the wake of the positivity, we believe that it will remain under local pressure today from both the side of the Fed's announcement of "infinite" QE and news from the PRC, which show that the virus is receding in Asia.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is growing on positive news from Asia and the demand for risky assets. It has already rolled back up 38% Fibonacci and is trading above the level of 0.5945. We believe that consolidation above this level will lead to its local increase to 0.6080.

The USD/CAD pair is trading below the level of 1.4425 amid rising oil prices and general positivity from Asia. We believe that on this wave, it has the prospects of declining to the level of 1.4200, and then to 1.4030.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 24. Italy is covered by the "coronavirus". Traders are waiting for data on business activity

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -46.0891

For the EUR/USD pair, the first trading day of the week ended with a new round of corrective movement. Thus, the European currency began to show the first signs of completion of the downward trend and recovery. Unfortunately, it is too early to say that the downward trend is over. At any moment, the price drop may resume, as the situation on the world oil and stock markets remains very difficult. Thus, the euro currency was adjusted on Monday not because there were fundamental reasons for this, but because one currency can't go down forever. In other words, the reasons were purely technical. Thus, since the situation in the world with "coronavirus" has not changed at all, it is also not necessary to expect a change in the mood of market participants. Despite the fact that the last two days have passed without depreciation of the euro currency, volatility remains extremely high, which indicates the continuing panic mood of the markets.

Finally, today, March 24, the first macroeconomic reports for the month of March will begin to arrive. It was in March that the whole world seriously faced the problem of the COVID-2019 epidemic. Thus, it is in March that we expect a serious reduction in all indicators of the state of the economy of all the countries of the eurozone and America. And the main question, respectively, is how bad things are in the States and the EU? Until now, we could only judge this by the measures taken by the governments of these countries, as well as by the central banks. However, both banks and governments simultaneously decided to ease monetary policy as much as possible. The only thing to note is that the ECB did not lower rates since they are already "ultra-low". However, both the Alliance and the States have announced an expansion of quantitative stimulus programs and any financial support for the economy. However, all these actions do not allow us to assess the real losses of both economies. And today, business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors of the European Union, Germany, the UK, and the US will be published.

We discussed all these indices in detail in the articles - "Preview of the week". Now we remind traders that all the indices of all countries are preparing to seriously fall down. Although these are only preliminary values for March, no one doubts that if any indicator is, for example, 40.0, it is unlikely that this value will change to 50.0 before the end of the month. Thus, it is highly likely that the preliminary values will coincide with the forecast values. So, in Germany, the business activity index is expected to decline from 48.0 to 38.5-39.6. The index of business activity in the service sector - from 52.5 to 41.7-42.3. In the European Union, experts' forecasts predict a fall in the PMI in the manufacturing sector from 49.2 to 39.0-39.6, and for the service sector - from 52.6 to 37.5-39.0. Since all four of the EU's most significant indices are almost guaranteed to fall below the mark of 50, it doesn't really matter what the actual numbers are. In any case, there will be a decline in all sectors. Data will also be published in the United States where business activity in the manufacturing sector is likely to decrease from 50.7 to 42.0-42.8, and in the service sector - from 49.4 to 42.0-40.0. Thus, the picture is approximately equal. However! If business activity in the United States turns out to be significantly lower than the already very weak forecasts, then traders can finally pay attention to the statistics and stop buying the US dollar simply because they consider it the most stable and safe currency. After all, if you think about it, what are the reasons for the growth of the US dollar in the last two weeks? Especially given the huge drop in US stock indices? Especially given the number of dollars the Fed will have to print to keep the US economy afloat. After all, this is an elementary oversupply of dollars at almost zero rates and Donald Trump's passionate desire to devalue the national currency. We would say in the current conditions (which are already very different from those that were just a month ago), the US currency no longer has such rosy prospects. Moreover, at the moment, it looks frankly overbought, which means that sooner or later a reverse movement will follow.

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As for the "coronavirus", the number of cases in the European Union is already approaching 200,000. The countries that are most susceptible to the epidemic are the same - Italy (64,000), Spain (33,000), Germany (29,000), France (17,000), Switzerland (9,000). There are about 370,000 cases of coronavirus worldwide, but we still believe that the real numbers are much higher. Many countries remain in quarantine and it is unlikely that it will end soon. Italy, of course, is the hardest hit. In the past two days, Italy has twice set a new record for deaths from the epidemic. Yesterday, 793 people were killed by the virus. In total - almost 5,000. More than 20% of the medical staff was infected with the "coronavirus". Unfortunately, according to the World Health Organization, the rate of increase in the spread of the virus is growing almost exponentially. If 67 days passed from the established first case to the level of 100,000 infected, then the second hundred thousand took only 11 days, and the third - 4 days. Of course, this may be due to the fact that many more people were infected with the virus in the first 67 days, they simply did not have a new disease diagnosed. However, more importantly, the virus continues to spread and it is not possible to stop its growth.

From a technical point of view, the indicator Heiken Ashi continues to paint the bars in the color purple. This way, the correction can continue. At the same time, the state of panic does not leave the markets, respectively, at any moment, the euro/dollar pair can rush in any direction with new forces.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains at record high values and continues to grow day by day. At the moment, the average value for the last 5 days is already 238 points. The growth rate is not as high as it used to be. Markets continue to be in an agitated state. In the last two days, we can say that there is a technical correction, so perhaps the period of baseless collapse is over. On Tuesday, we again expect a decrease in volatility and movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.0504 and 1.0980.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0864

R2 - 1.0986

R3 - 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair started to adjust. Thus, traders are still recommended to consider selling the euro currency with the targets of the Murray levels of 1.0620 and 1.0498, but after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down. It is recommended to buy the EUR/USD pair not before fixing the price above the moving average line with the first target of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986. When opening any positions, we recommend increased caution, since the market is still in a state of outright panic.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD - Price Action Signals Reversal!

EUR/USD has been increasing aggressively on the short term as the USDX drops after the amazing rally. A US Dollar Index corrective phase will force the currency pair to rebound and to recover after the last drop.

EUR/USD has decreased significantly after the ECB and FED stimulus measures to fight the coronavirus damages. A USDX's valid breakdown below the 101.07 level, another lower, low will open the door for a further drop on the short term. This scenario will weaken the USD which will depreciate versus the major currencies, while Gold will advance. EUR/USD maintains a bearish outlook on the medium to the long term as the COVID-19 epidemic could push the eurozone into crisis.

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EUR/USD has found strong support at 1.0653 level, near 113% level, it has managed to come back above the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork, signaling that the downside movement could be finished.

The price has retested the median line (ml) and now has stabilized above the 100% level, a valid breakout above the Pivot Point (1.0857) and above the upper median line (uml) of the black descending pitchfork will bring us a long opportunity.

  • TRADING TIPS

EUR/USD has moved sideways between 1.0653 and 1.0830, a valid breakout from this range and above the upper median line (uml) will confirm a reversal on the short term, the first upside targets are seen at 61.8% level and higher at the weekly R1 (1.1077) level.

A potential upside movement will be invalidated if EUR/USD makes a false breakout with a great separation above the PP (1.0857) and above the upper median line (uml) and if the pair drops below the 1.0653 level. If this scenario takes shape, we could go short from below 1.0653 level with a potential target at the weekly S1 (1.0478) level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 03/24/2020

You look at quotes, and you just want to wipe the sweat from your forehead and exclaim that, they say, finally all this horror is now in the past. The market ceased to be in a state of free fall and a reversal began. The single European currency has been growing for two days in a row and continues to grow. Meanwhile, the pound rather stands still, but also shows signs of growth. Most importantly, they stopped falling. However, volatility is, of course, just crazy. But that's nothing. It happens. Now, everyone will calm down, the market will stabilize and everything will return to normal. I do not want to be upset, but, apparently, this is not about a reversal, but only a temporary respite.

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The fact that the fall of the markets is still far from complete, most clearly demonstrates what is happening in the debt market. For example, the French government debt securities were placed yesterday, the yield on which is just a wonderful illustration of everything that is happening. In particular, the yield on 3-month bills rose from -0.608% to -0.528%. The yield on 6-month bonds rose from -0.615% to -0.535% while the yield of 12-month bills increased from -0.625% to -0.534%. Here, yields are still negative, but we can see a significant increase. And this is amid the fact that the European Central Bank introduces new stimulus measures almost every day amounting to hundreds of billions of euros. This is only possible if investors simply get rid of European debt securities.

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It's ridiculous, but judging by American debt securities, these same investors are shifting to the United States. Money cannot just lie around and do nothing. So, the yield on 3-month bills literally collapsed from 0.29% to 0.00% while the yield of 6-month bills decreased from 0.30% to 0.08%. In other words, we see the very capital flight from Europe to the United States, In this regard, major players are getting rid of European debt securities and buying American ones. Moreover, judging by the dynamics of profitability, American securities are being bought up. And this is happening right now, which means the dollar will continue to grow. And the current slowdown in the currency market is nothing more than a banal respite.

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Today, we are waiting for a whole lot of extremely interesting statistics that can shed light on the damage that the coronavirus epidemic will cause to the world economy. The fact is that the rapid and victorious procession of the coronavirus around the world began in March. Moreover, it was also this month that Europe and North America faced this scourge, due to which various shopping centers, cinemas, bars and so on were massively closed. People sit at home and do not go anywhere, since the entire region ends up in the quarantine zone. It is clear that the economic damage will be simply terrifying. Many businesses will not survive this. But while we do not have any statistics, it is extremely difficult to talk about the magnitude of the consequences. So, today, preliminary data on business activity indices will be published, and with all the respect for them, they can at least approximately show what we should expect. And frankly, the forecasts are just frightening. For example, in France, the index of business activity in the services sector should decrease from 52.5 to 41.0, and in the manufacturing sector, it should collapse from 49.8 to 39.8. At the same time, the composite index of business activity may decrease from 52.0 to 40.6. Things may be even worse in Germany, where the index of business activity in the services sector should be reduced from 52.5 to 41.7 as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector should decline from 48.0 to 38.5. The forecasts for the composite business activity index are completely terrifying, since a decrease from 50.7 to 39.8 is expected. If we talk about the euro area in general the index of business activity in the services sector may decrease from 52.6 to 37.5, while the production index is from 49.2 to 39.6. It is clear that the composite index of business activity will inevitably decrease from 51.6 to 38.5. In this case, we are talking about new historical lows for almost all indicators. In addition, the scale of the decrease in pan-European indices is slightly larger than separately for Germany and France. It turns out that in other countries things are much worse. Moreover, it is in economic terms. And this means that everyone will soon remember the catastrophic problems with the debts of European countries again. On the other hand, the demand for their debt securities continues to decline, which means it is becoming more and more difficult for them to finance not only budget expenditures, but also payments on previous debts.

Composite Business Activity Index (Europe):

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Things are not the best in the UK, where a terrible collapse in business activity indices is also expected. In particular, the index of business activity in the services sector should decrease from 53.2 to 44.0. The manufacturing business activity index is expected to decline to 51.7 to 45.0. So it is not surprising that they expect a reduction in the composite index of business activity from 53.0 to 44.4. The scale of the decline may be even greater than the one that was after the Brexit referendum. And of course, we are talking about new historical lows.

Composite Business Activity Index (UK):

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Do not be surprised that the general decline in the single European currency and the pound will resume during the European session. However, it will be temporary, since we are waiting for some appearance of a rebound already with the opening of the American session. Indeed, the collapse of business activity indices is expected in the United States. In particular, the index of business activity in the service sector may decline from 49.4 to 40.0, while the manufacturing business activity index may decline from 50.7 to 42.0. Therefore, it is quite reasonable to predict a decrease in the composite index of business activity from 49.6 to 40.8. Nevertheless, it is clear that the scale of the decline in the United States is expected to be slightly less than in Europe. Thus, the rebound clearly does not block the decline that will follow after the publication of European data. In addition to this, new home sales data are published, which may be reduced by 3.7%. However, this is the data for February, and the market is now interested in what is happening in March. As a result, only few people pay attention to home sales.

Composite Business Activity Index (United States):

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The euro / dollar currency pair found a resistance point in the face of the upper boundary of the variable flat 1.0830 (1.0650 / 1.0830) once again, where it slowed down and formed a stagnation of 1.0775 / 1.0830. It is likely to assume that the stagnation will not last long, where in the case of fixing prices lower than 1.0765, we will open the direction to the levels of 1.0700-1.0650.

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The pound / dollar currency pair moved to the lower part of the flat 1.1450 // 1.1660 // 1.1850 during yesterday's swing, where the movement was looped in relation to the periods earlier. It is likely to assume that the stagnation within 1.1595 / 1.1680 will not last long, where in case the price is fixed lower than 1.1590, the direction to the levels of 1.1500-1.1450 will open for us.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GOLD Edges Higher As USD Retreats

Gold has finally managed to rebound and to signal a potential larger upside movement after the temporary correction. It is trading at $1,560, right above the $1,555 broken resistance. A consolidation above this level will signal another bullish momentum towards $1,600 psychological level.

As I've said in my previous analysis, the yellow metal remains an attractive buy asset in this risk aversion situation. Gold could jump way above $1,703 high soon. COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread aggressively, making new victims and economic damages, so the investors and traders are buying gold to protect their money.

  • GOLD Still Bullish!

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Technically, the gold price has rallied after it tested and retested the lower median line (lml) of the minor black ascending pitchfork, confirming this line as strong dynamic support. I've said in my analysis that Gold maintains a bullish outlook as long as it is traded above the $1,484 static support, the false breakdown with a great separation below the lower median line (lml) and the failure to retest the lower median line (LML) of the descending pitchfork has signaled that the corrective phase is complete and that the bulls will take the lead.

Gold has increased as much as $1,584 today, it could approach and reach the next target at $1,600 if it stabilizes above the $1,555 level and above the R1 ($1,557) level. The price has found a temporary resistance at the inside sliding line (sl) of the minor black ascending pitchfork, but the outlook is bullish after the breakout above $1,555 and above the weekly R1 ($1,557) level.

The price has moved sideways between the weekly S1 ($1,445) and R1 ($1,557) levels, Gold should resume the upside movement if this breakout is validated. The next upside targets are seen at the upper median line (uml) of the ascending pitchfork, at $1,600 psychological level and higher at the upper median line (UML) of the orange descending pitchfork.

  • TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS

A consolidation above the $1,555 level will give us a great chance to go long as well, but you should keep in mind that only a valid breakout above the $1,600, above the upper median line (uml) and above the upper median line (UML) will validate a larger increase. The major upside target remains at $1,700 - $1,703 area.

The outlook on Gold is bullish, a larger increase could be invalidated only by a valid breakdown below the lower median line (lml) of the minor black ascending pitchfork and below the $1,484 critical support, this scenario is less likely to happen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP/USD on March 24, 2020

The pair continued to move down on Monday, and retested the support line 1.1447 (black bold line) and after that, the price went up. Today, the upward pullback may continue. Strong calendar news for the pound is expected at 09:30 UTC and for the dollar at 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level of 1.1642 (closing of yesterday's candle), an upward pullback is possible with testing of the retracement level of 23.6% - 1.1834 (red dotted line). Upon reaching this line, the continuation of the upward movement is possible with the target of 1.2096, a retracement level of 38.2% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today an upward pullback is possible.

Unlikely scenario: from 1.1673, a retracement level of 14.6% (red dashed line), work down with the target at the historical support level of 1.1294 (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on March 24, 2020

The pair moved upward on Monday after testing the support line 1.0649 (white bold line). Today, an upward pullback movement will continue. Strong calendar news for the euro is expected at 08:30 UTC, and for the dollar at 14:00 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, from the level of 1.0728 (closing of yesterday's candle) the price will try to continue to move up with the target of 1.0840, a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line). If this level is reached, the continuation of the upward movement is with the next target of 1.0965, a retracement level of 38.2% (Red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, from the level of 1.0728 (closing of yesterday's candle) the price will try to continue to move up with the target at 1.0840, a retracement level of 23.6% (red dashed line). If this level is reached, the continuation of the upward movement is with the next target of 1.0965, a retracement level of 38.2% (Red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: from a pullback level of 23.6% - 1.0740 (red dashed line), work down, with the target at the lower fractal 1.0637 (red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for EUR/USD

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Hello, dear traders! Let's consider my trading idea for the EUR/USD pair.

Yesterday, amid the news that a $1.7 trillion coronavirus economic stimulus package failed to advance in the U.S. Senate, the US dollar slipped across the board, including the euro. The euro/dollar pair gained strong bullish momentum from the lows of the current year and created a clear area with the sellers' stop loss orders along the trend:

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I consider long deals in the European session with a view to achieving the level of the seller's stop loss orders at 1.08400 with subsequent corrections depending on your risks. The pair is likely to pass over 500 pips to reach this target.

Further movement can be considered on D1 according to the following scenario:

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Please control your risks! Have a successful trading day!

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 03/24/2020 and trading recommendation

Despite all the disadvantages, financial markets have one very good feature - nothing can fall forever, and sooner or later the reverse upward movement begins. This feature is most clearly expressed in the currency market. This is what we see when we look at the single European currency. A completely empty macroeconomic calendar, as well as the equally appalling situation with coronavirus in Europe and the United States, probably became the key to the growth of the single European currency. The scale of the collapse was so significant that the euro, simply by the laws of the market, had to start growing sooner or later. But the question is, is this a reversal, or is it just a temporary rebound?

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The situation in the debt market suggests that this is a rebound, and not some kind of reversal and change of trend. After all, the yield on European debt securities continues to grow. Consequently, capital flight continues. For example, in France, the yield on 3-month bills rose from -0.608% to -0.528%. The yield on 6-month bonds rose from -0.615% to -0.535%. Well, the yield of 12-month bills increased from -0.625% to -0.534%. Such an increase in yields, in the context of expanding stimulus measures of the European Central Bank, can only be due to the fact that large investors are getting rid of European debt securities. The only question is, where do these same investors then go with the released funds? After all, money can not just lie idle.

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It is not strange, but the funds flow to the United States. And not in the stock market, but in debt. After all, the yield of 3-month bills fell from 0.290% to 0.000%. Well, the yield of 6-month bills fell from 0.300% to 0.080%. This is amid the incredibly rapid reduction in the Federal Reserve's refinancing rate. This is possible only if investors really sell everything and everything, and transfer funds to the United States. So it is not surprising that the dollar is rapidly becoming more expensive. And as you can see from the dynamics of government debt yields, the process is far from complete.

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Today, market participants will be able to rely on at least some macroeconomic data. And even though this is just preliminary data on indexes of business activity. The fact is that this is the first data for March. The same March when Europe and the United States encountered the coronavirus. It is clear that the economic damage will be incredibly large-scale. But how exactly? But most importantly, who will suffer the most? Europe or North America? So, the forecasts for Europe are extremely disappointing. In particular, the index of business activity in the service sector should collapse from 52.6 to 37.5. The manufacturing index may fall from 49.2 to 39.6. As a result, the composite PMI is likely to fall from 51.6 to 38.5. In other words, all indexes, with the exception of production, should set new record lows.

The composite index of business activity (Europe):

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But even in the United States, they expect a banal collapse of all business activity indices. Thus, the index of business activity in the service sector may decrease from 49.4 to 40.0. The manufacturing sector is expected to reduce from 50.7 to 42.0. As a result, the composite PMI should fall from 49.6 to 40.8. So the picture is very, very sad. Another thing is that the expected scale of decline is still not the same as in Europe. Consequently, the situation in the United States is not much better, which means that the dollar continues to be more attractive.

The composite index of business activity (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a local upward movement towards the highs of March 20 and 23, where the resistance point in the face of a variable level of 1.0830 was previously found. In fact, the quote continues to move in the conditional side channel having a wide range of fluctuations of 1.0650/1.0830 (1.0850).

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see a downward trend, where the last two weeks there was a solid inertial move.

It can be assumed that the movement within the established framework of 1.0650/1.0830 will continue in the market where the development of the 1.0830 boundary in the downward direction is initially considered.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- We will consider long positions after the descent to the area of 1.0650/1.0700.

- We consider short positions lower than 1.0765, towards 1.0700 -> 1.0650.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that due to the price movement within a wide range, the indicators of technical tools on the minute and hour periods work relative to it. Daily periods invariably keep a sell signal, amid a general decline.

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Control zones for USD/CHF on 03/24/20

On the third day, the accumulation zone is formed. Today's support will be the weekly control zone 1/2 0.9758-0.9745. While the pair is trading above this zone, the probability of updating the monthly maximum is 75%. Moreover, working towards the weakening Swiss pound is more profitable.

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It is important to understand that the current accumulation phase in most cases will serve as a springboard for further weakening of the franc. This allows you to search for patterns to buy in the main support areas.

An alternative model has a probability of 25%, which makes sales from current marks unprofitable. However, if the closing of today's trading occurs below the weekly control zone 1/2, this will lead to the formation of a deeper correction. The target of the decline will be the weekly control zone 0.9619-0.9592.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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There is sign of weakness from USD against JPY on March 24, 2020

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At the 4-hour Chart, we see the Divergence between the CCI and the Candlestick. This condition gives us a clue for the USD weakness soon, especially after New York, Los Angles, and Seattle officially are locked down by the US Government. So, the economic in the country will be hurt as the US Unemployment Rate will increase soon plus every quarter of the Month will be a change of the trend. Thus, all these conditions will be confirm that USD/JPY soon will be going down and try to test 109.68 as long as the pair does not retrace to up more then 111.60.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD. Repeated failure in Senate, increase in number of infected, and support for Brussels

The dollar index still could not hold its ground at the end of Monday, and it began to gradually decline during the Asian session on Tuesday: if yesterday this indicator almost did not leave the 103rd figure, it is currently at the bottom of the 102nd level. And although any index value above a hundred points indicates the "good health" of the US currency, the trend itself suggests that the dollar's moment of glory has passed – at least, for a second rally, the greenback needs a powerful informational push.

The euro-dollar pair follows the general trend – after some hesitation, buyers were still able to seize the initiative, and now they are once again testing the eighth figure. However, it is worth recognizing that the EUR/USD bulls of the eight price level do not lend themselves in the same way as the bears to the sixth figure.. Therefore, it is too early to talk about a turning point in the situation, at least until traders get a foothold above the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1, which corresponds to the 1.0940 mark.

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There are certain prerequisites for the implementation of this scenario, since the dollar is declining for several reasons at once, and not only of a technical nature. First of all, the greenback was under pressure after the US Senate today repeatedly failed to vote for the program of financial support for the US economy. Only 49 congressmen voted for the relevant document, while it was necessary to have 60. It would seem that against the background of the rapidly deteriorating epidemiological situation, senators should not be up to political discord, but despite everything, this bill has become another "bone of contention" between Democrats and Republicans. It is worth remembering that the US will hold presidential elections in just eight months, so Donald Trump's opponents are not in a hurry to "wave" the necessary laws, seeing this as an element of the election campaign.

In particular, representatives of the Democratic party said that the package of proposed measures provides too much assistance to large businesses. At the same time, Democrats insist that the primary focus should be on payments and guarantees to individuals. According to a number of political analysts, the discussion of this bill may be delayed – it will be difficult for Trump's party members to find a compromise with the Democrats, while they need their votes: five Republicans are in quarantine after the discovery of a coronavirus in Congress, and therefore can not take part in meetings. Moreover, when the bill was re-examined, the Democrats cast fewer votes than in the original one.

Meanwhile, the situation with Covid-19 in the US continues to deteriorate. The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection there exceeded 40,000, and it doubled over the past two days, and has increased by almost 9,000 people during the day. The virus claimed the lives of more than 500 patients, while the number of people recovered amounted to only 187 people. By the number of cases, the United States is still in third place in the world. And judging by the comments of experts, the United States can lead this sad rating - according to a senior official of the Department of Health - Dr. Jerome Adams - a sharp increase in the incidence rate is expected in the coming days in America, as many residents of the country (especially young people) do not take the threat seriously, do not follow quarantine regulations and do not practice social distance. In confirmation of these words, it is worth noting that in two states (Maryland and Virginia), the daily increase in the number of infected was almost 50%. These rates of spread of Covid-19 exert indirect pressure on the US currency.

But the European currency received unexpected support from Brussels yesterday - the European Union for the first time approved the suspension of the budget rules. The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council has approved the proposal of the European Commission for the first time in history to suspend the operation of the eurozone's core document - the Stability and Growth Pact. Let me remind you that this Pact limits the state budget deficit of the eurozone countries to three percent of GDP, and the public debt limit is 60% of GDP. Italy struggled for a long time to exceed this ceiling the year before last, even under the threat of fines. Now the action of this document has been suspended, which will allow the governments of the EU countries to get loans without restrictions, increasing the budget deficit and to provide assistance to business. Earlier, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Layen, announced this step - according to her, the budget of the European Union will take on part of the burden of saving the economies of the bloc.

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The actions of Brussels could not turn the tide on the EUR/USD pair, but the pressure on the euro decreased (for example, the single currency showed character in the EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF cross pairs). At the same time, the dollar is still the main catalyst for the movement of the EUR/USD pair, or rather, the ratio of traders to this currency. The greenback is still the most attractive defensive asset, but the hype around it has sharply fallen. Such a contradictory background does not allow bulls to escape beyond the seventh figure, and bears - finally gain a foothold in the sixth.

In addition, in recent days, rumors have spread around the market that the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury may use traditional currency intervention to stabilize the dollar. In particular, according to currency strategists at Goldman Sachs, such a scenario is quite likely - especially if the US currency will continue to grow, despite the Fed's dollar swap lines and quantitative easing programs. Similar rumors also exert indirect pressure on the greenback, complicating the task of the EUR/USD bears. That is why it is better for the pair to take a wait-and-see position in view of the ambiguous fundamental background. The support level is still at 1.0650 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart), and the resistance level is 1.0940 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 24. COT reports indicate a gradual increase in short positions on the pound.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

A 3-week quarantine has been introduced in the UK due to the abrupt spread of coronavirus, which can seriously affect the pace of economic growth, which will lead to a slowdown of more than 5.0% in the second quarter of 2020. Against this background, the pound remains under pressure in a pair with the US dollar, but the bears failed to break through this year's lows in the area of 1.1470 yesterday. In the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for March 17, the lowest growth of long non-commercial positions was from 56,077 to 56,575, while short non-commercial positions rose sharply from the level of 29,749 to 37,935, indicating a gradual return of pressure on the British pound. As a result, the non-commercial net position also fell to 18,640 from 26,328. However, as we can see on the chart, the British pound is already at very different lows, and the situation has changed dramatically, as reports are released with a weekly delay. High market volatility in recent years will not allow you to rely on COT reports. Important fundamental statistics on activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector will be released today, which may return pressure on the British pound and pull it under the lows of the year. The bulls need to continue to protect the 1.1470 support, a signal to open short positions will be when a false breakout forms on it following the release of data. A more important task for buyers is to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1653, which will lead to a major upward correction to the resistance area of 1.1798 and 1.1926, where I recommend taking profits, since it will not be possible to break above these ranges without improving the situation. If the GBP/USD falls below 1.1470, it is best to look at new long positions only after updating the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1300.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The task of sellers of the pound will be to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1653, which will be a clear signal to open short positions, especially if this coincides with weak data on the services sector, which will have a negative impact on the British economy. A break in support of 1.1470 will raise the pressure on the pair, which will open a direct path to the lows of 1.1400 and 1.1300, where I recommend taking profits. If there are no sellers at the 1.1653 level in the first half of the day after the reports are released, then it is best to postpone short positions until the resistance test of 1.1798, or sell immediately on a rebound from the weekly high of 1.1926.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which more indicates a lack of desire to sell than buy the pound.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.1470 will lead to a sharp decline in the pound. A break of the upper boundary in the 1.1670 area will increase the likelihood of an upward correction.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and
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Analysis of GBP/AUD For March 24, 2020

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After the CCI breakout below the -100 level and the previous CCI Low, we know the GBP/UAD pair formed the downward momentum on the 4-hour Chart. The pair is now trying to reach the nearest Liquidity Pool at 1.9533 as its prime target and the 1.9285 as the secondary target. As long as this pair does not retrace higher than 2.0354, the pair is likely to reach its prime target at 1.9533.

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 24. COT reports. Euro sellers fail to reach annual lows. Bulls aim for breakout

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Latest statements by the Federal Reserve that it will buy bonds in an unlimited amount affected the quotes of the US dollar, which weakened against the euro in the afternoon, thereby, allowing the bulls to reach the resistance of 1.0826, from which active sales began again (see the 5-minute chart). I paid attention to them in my forecast. In the COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for March 17, a sharp reduction in short positions for the euro was noted, but also a decrease in long positions was recorded, which indicates a fairly cautious attitude of traders to buying euros even amid such a strong fall, which is not even taken into account in this indicator. The reduction in short non-commercial positions occurred from the level of 166,487 immediately to 114,638, while long non-commercial positions also fell from the level of 153,820 to 147,133. As a result, the non-commercial net position turned out to be positive and reached 32,495, which indicates a clear advantage for the bulls. However, as we can see on the chart, reports are released with a one-week delay, and now the situation has changed dramatically. High market volatility in recent years will not allow you to rely on COT reports. However, despite the pressure that is currently being exerted on the euro, the bulls managed to go above the level of 1.0727 yesterday, and have already come close to the resistance of 1.0826, which is their main goal today. A breakout and consolidation above this level will lead to an update of the highs of 1.0884 and 1.0930, where I recommend taking profits. The longer-term goal of the bulls will be the 1.0975 area. In case the euro repeatedly falls in the first half of the day, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakout from the support of 1.0727, or buy immediately on a rebound from the annual low in the area of 1.0636 in the calculation of a rebound of 60-70 points inside the day.

To open short positions on EUR USD you need:

Sellers will still protect the resistance of 1.0826, from which the euro has already fallen to annual lows several times. The formation of a false breakout there will be an additional signal to open short positions. However, much will depend on what reports on manufacturing activity and services in the eurozone will come out. If the data turns out to be far worse than economists' forecasts, bears will quickly return EUR/USD to the support of 1.0727, consolidating below which will pull down the pair to annual lows of 1.0636, where I recommend taking profits. More persistent sellers will wait for the 1.0572 and 1.0549 levels to be updated. If the demand for the euro persists after the breakout of the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.0826, then it is best to postpone sales until the test of the highs 1.0884 and 1.0930, from where you can expect a rebound of 60-70 points inside the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the continuation of the formation of an upward correction in the pair.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the upper limit of the indicator around 1.0826 will strengthen the demand for the euro. If the pair declines, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0680 will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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Forecast for EUR/USD on March 24, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro showed a timid correction growth on Monday, but this growth has become confident today in the Asian session. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator continues to gain strength. The first goal of the correction is still the 1.0879 level – the October 1, 2019 low, its overcoming opens the second goal of 1.0967 – the area where the 38.2% Fibonacci level intersects with the embedded line of the price channel and, possibly, also the MACD line, which is approaching this point. The level is created strong, so now we expect the euro to fall from it with a high probability.

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The Marlin oscillator strengthened the growth on the four-hour chart, the signal line was fixed in the zone of positive values – the first goal of 1.0879 is likely to be taken, and the pair's quote will continue to grow towards the second goal.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on March 24, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound traded in the range of 260 points on Monday, consolidating under the Fibonacci level of 238.2% on the daily scale chart. Today in the Asian session, the price went above this level on the growing Marlin oscillator with the clear intention to continue the correction. The first and most significant target is the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1935. The price already tested this level on Friday.

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The MACD line approaches the target level of 1.1935 on the four-hour chart, which creates its significance. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the last two days has created a narrow consolidation (marked in gray) and it has gone up this morning, creating an impulse to increase the price.

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So, we are waiting for the correction growth of the British pound to continue to the designated goal of 1.1935, but also follow the intermediate level of 1.1750 at the Fibonacci level of 223.6%. At this level, there is a balance line (red indicator), which is a certain obstacle to price growth.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on March 24, 2020

AUD/USD

On Monday, the price managed to gain a foothold above the Fibonacci correction level of 23.6% of the entire movement on March 9-19. The price overcame the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel and approached the correction level of 38.2% today in the Asian session. Overcoming the level opens the goal of 0.6095 , which corresponds to a correction of 50.0%.

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On the four-hour chart, the main obstacle for the price to continue the correction is the MACD line at 0.5982, which is also close to the 38.2% correction level on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has turned from the border separating the growth zone from the declining trend zone, which gives the price the confidence in continuing growth .

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Forecast for USD/JPY on March 24, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen continued to form reversal technical models on Monday, strengthening them in today's Asian session. On the daily chart, this is a more pronounced reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator; This is the formation of a double complex divergence on the four-hour chart.

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The first goal of the decline is the MACD line on the daily chart on 109.10. Overcoming support opens the second target along the price channel in the area of 107.90. Behind it, a third target also opens along the line of the price channel at a price of 107.05.

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On the four-hour chart, the 107.90 target level coincides with the MACD line moving towards it. The price might probably rebound from this level. Overcoming the third goal of 107.05, consolidating below it, opens the way to a deeper decline - to the embedded line of the price channel in the 102.70 area (daily).

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Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY (H4) on March 24, 2020

Minuettes operational scale (H4)

Waiting for a reversal? Here's the comprehensive analysis for the development options of the movement of the main currency instruments #USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY on March 24, 2020.

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US dollar index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from March 24, 2020 will be determined by the development and the breakdown direction of a fairly wide range:

  • resistance level of 102.30 - boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 100.90 - signal line ISL23.6 of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The breakdown of the signal line ISL23.6 (support level of 100.90) Minuette will cause the movement of #USDX to be extended to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (100.55 - 99.80 - 99.00) and equilibrium zone (99.50 - 98.40 - 97.30) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, if the dollar index returns (breakdown of the resistance level of 102.30) in the red zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, then the development of the upward movement can continue to the goals:

- maximum 102.99;

- control line UTL (103.30) of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- warning - UWL38.2 (104.55) and UWL61.8 (105.60) - lines of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of marking the movement of the dollar index from March 24, 2020 are presented on the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from March 24, 2020 will also be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.0800 - boundary of a red zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 1.0725 on the FSL endpoint forks

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.0800 at the boundary of the red zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will determine the development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.0900), the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.0930 - 1.1030 - 1.1120) and the equilibrium zone (1.1000 - 1.1090 - 1.1190) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Alternatively, in the event of the breakdown of the FSL terminal line (support level of 1.0725) of the Minuette operational scale forks, then the EUR / USD movement can be continued to the initial SSL (1.0655) and control LTL (1.0630) lines of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching warning lines - LWL38.2 (1.0580) and LWL61.8 (1.0485) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

On March 24, 2020, Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency will continue to develop its movement depending on the development and the breakdown direction of the range:

  • resistance level of 1.1635 - lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel;
  • support level of 1.1400 - final line FSL of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1635, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement will continue in the a Median Line Minuette channel (1.1635 - 1.1735 - 1.1855) and within the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks (1.1855 - 1.2025 - 1.2190) and Minuette (1.2100 - 1.2320 - 1.2530).

Meanwhile, the breakdown of the final line of the FSL (support level of 1.1400) of the Minuette operational scale forks will lead to an option to continue the development of the downward movement of GBP / USD to the initial SSL (1.1330) and the final LTL (1.1240) lines of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the warning lines - LWL38.2 (1.1040) and LWL61.8 (1.0820) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the country of the rising sun from March 24, 2020 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (110.90 - 110.45 - 110.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks. We look at the details of this movement on the chart.

The breakdown lower boundary (support level of 110.00) of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will lead to an option to continue the development of the downward movement of USD / JPY to the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks (108.90 - 108.10 - 107.50) and Minuette (108.30 - 106.95 - 105.65).

In contrast, the breakdown of the upper boundary (resistance level of 110.00) of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will make it possible to continue the upward movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" to the goals:

- the initial line SSL Minuette (111.40);

- final Schiff Line Minuette (111.70);

- maximum 112.20;

- end line FSL Minuette (112.60);

- control line UTL Minuette (113.60).

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the chart.

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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power factors correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the starting date - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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