Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 23, 2020

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair is going to continue to rise from the level of 1.2689 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.2689 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart.

The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame.

Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.2689. So, buy above the level of 1.2689 with the first target at 1.2812 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2885.

The price of 1.2812 will form a double top.

Also, it might be noted that the level of 12885 is a good place to take profit.

On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2689, a further decline to 1.2589 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 23 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pound at Wednesday's highs. COT reports.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Buyers of the British pound, after the pair rapidly fell in the first half of the day, managed to regain all their positions, which preserves the upward potential. In the second half of the day, several signals were formed for entering the market. Let's take them apart. We see how the absence of bears at 1.2691 led to its breakout and consolidation above, and a repeat test of this area formed a good entry point into long positions, which quickly threw the pound to a high of 1.2722, from which I advised selling on a rebound, which happened. The entry point for selling is clearly visible in the resistance area of 1.2722. At the moment, the pair is stuck in a side channel and the direction of the market will depend on which way the breakout will occur. The bulls need to protect the support of 1.2701, forming a false breakout at this level will be a signal to open long positions to continue the current bull market. An equally important goal is a breakout and consolidating above this week's high of 1.2763, which also forms a signal to buy the pound with continued growth in the area of 1.2809 and 1.2906, where I recommend taking profits. Data on orders in the manufacturing sector, which are released today in the first half of the day, is unlikely to significantly affect the market. If there is no activity in the support area of 1.2701, it is best to postpone long positions until the update of the low of 1.2645 and buy the pound there immediately for a rebound while expecting a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the COT report for July 14 indicated that there was an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 56,300 to the level of 56,761 during the week. Long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 39,892 to the level of 43,175. As a result, the non-commercial net position decreased its negative value to -13,568, against -16,408, which indicates that the market is still under pressure, but there are fewer and fewer willing to sell.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers have a great chance to return to the market, but it takes hard work. First of all, you need to prevent a breakout of the 1.2763 resistance and form a false breakout on it, which will be the first signal to open short positions. The goal of such an entry is support of 1.2701, consolidating below it will only increase the pressure on the pound, which will lead to a complete overlap of yesterday's growth and updating the low of 1.2645, where I recommend taking profits. The long-term goal of sellers is still support for 1.2585. With the growth of GBP/USD above the resistance of 1.2763 in the morning, you can rely on poor reports on the UK economy, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. If there are no sellers at the 1.2763 level, I advise you to postpone short positions until an update of a high of 1.2809, or sell the pound immediately on the rebound from the resistance of 1.2906, counting on a correction of 30-40 points by the end of the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the advantage of buyers of the pound remains.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the lower border of the indicator around 1.2690 will increase the pressure on the pair. Breaking the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2763 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 23 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Euro buyers can be stopped by the 16th

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The euro's growth from yesterday morning, where we managed to enter the correction stage (I analyzed the trade in detail in the afternoon forecast), turned into new purchases with several signals forming for entering the market in the US session. Let's talk about them in more detail and see where it was best to enter the market. Breakout and consolidating above the resistance of 1.1569, and then its test formed a good point to continue opening long positions, which almost led to an update of the resistance of 1.1605, which was just 5 points short of the test. The sell signal formed after a repeated approach to the 1.1600 range, which resulted in a downward correction of the pair to the end of the US session. At the moment, the initial task of the bulls is to protect the support of 1.1555 and form a false breakout on it, this will be a signal to open long positions in order to break and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1597. You should be very careful with buying the euro at the current high, since a divergence formed on the MACD indicator, which will limit the upward potential. If there is no activity on the part of sellers after consolidating above 1.1597, you can add long positions while expecting to update the levels of 1.1648 and 1.1682, where I recommend taking profits. Given that no important fundamental data are published in the first half of the day, a return of EUR/USD to support 1.15555 is not excluded. In this scenario, it is best to open long positions after updating yesterday's low of 1.1509, or immediately on a rebound from the support of 1.1466, counting on a correction of 25-30 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for July 14 recorded an increase in long positions and a very small rise in short ones, which indicates a gradual increase in demand for risky assets. There are more and more people willing to buy euros in the current conditions and at high prices,which may lead to further growth in the medium term. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 881,562 to the level of 83,340, while long non-commercial positions jumped from the level of 185,159 to the level of 194,252. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position increased to 110,912, against 103,597, which indicates an increase in interest in purchasing risky assets at current prices.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers clearly indicated their presence in the 1.1600 resistance area, but their actions will determine the pair's direction. The optimal scenario for opening short positions is forming a false breakout at 1.1597, after updating yesterday's high, and a fully formed divergence on the MACD indicator. In this case, you can sell against the trend and wait for EUR/USD to return to the support area of 1.15555. An equally important goal of the bears is a breakout and consolidating below this level, which will only strengthen the downward correction and push the euro to the low of 1.1509, where I recommend taking profits. Support for 1.1466 is a long-term goal for the end of the week. If sellers are not active in the 1.1597 area today, it is best to postpone short positions until an update of a high of 1.1648, or sell EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from the resistance of 1.1682 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of a further bull market.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1597 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. Break of the lower border region 1.1555 will increase pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of main currency pairs on July 23rd

Forecast for July 23:

Analytical overview of currency pairs on the H1 scale:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1662, 1.1619, 1.1564, 1.1539, 1.1498 and 1.1421. Here, we are following the July 10 upward structure. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1619. In this case, the target is 1.1662. Price consolidation and a pullback into correction are expected from here.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1564 - 1.1539. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.1498. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1620 Take profit: 1.1660

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 1.1563 Take profit: 1.1540

Sell: 1.1537 Take profit: 1.1500

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.2885, 1.2823, 1.2778, 1.2709, 1.2684 and 1.2644. Here, we are following the July 14 rising structure. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2778 - 1.2824. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2885. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2709 - 1.2684. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2644. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from July 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2779 Take profit: 1.2821

Buy: 1.2826 Take profit: 1.2885

Sell: 1.2709 Take profit: 1.2685

Sell: 1.2682 Take profit: 1.2645

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9357, 0.9325, 0.9308, 0.9255, 0.9235, 0.9210 and 0.9194. Here, we are following the development of the July 16 downward cycle. At the moment, we expect movement to the level of 0.9255. Upon reaching which, a short-term downward movement in the range of 0.9255 - 0.9235, as well as consolidation are expected. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9194, from which we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9308 - 0.9325. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.9357. This is a key support level for the downward structure from July 16.

The main trend is the descending structure from July 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9308 Take profit: 0.9323

Buy : 0.9326 Take profit: 0.9355

Sell: 0.9255 Take profit: 0.9237

Sell: 0.9234 Take profit: 0.9210

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 107.76, 107.53, 107.35, 107.09, 106.95, 106.66, 106.41, 106.10 and 105.90. Here, the price entered an equilibrium state: the downward structure from July 20 and the formation of potential for the top from July 21. The breakdown of the level 107.35 will lead to the cancellation of the descending structure and in this case, the first target is 107.53. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 107.76. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 107.09 - 106.95. The breakdown of the last value will favor the subsequent development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 106.66. The breakdown of the level 106.66 will lead to a movement to the level of 106.41, the breakout of which should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 106.10. We consider the level of 105.90 as a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as an upward pullback.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.35 Take profit: 107.50

Buy : 107.55 Take profit: 107.74

Sell: 107.09 Take profit: 106.96

Sell: 106.92 Take profit: 106.66

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3539, 1.3494, 1.3468, 1.3419, 1.3395, 1.3358 and 1.3303. Here, we are following the downward structure from July 14th. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.3419 - 1.3395. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a movement to the level of 1.3358. There is consolidation near this level. We consider the level of 1.3303 as a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this level, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3468 - 1.3494. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3539. This is the key support level for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure from July 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3468 Take profit: 1.3492

Buy : 1.3500 Take profit: 1.3537

Sell: 1.3419 Take profit: 1.3396

Sell: 1.3393 Take profit: 1.3360

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7222, 0.7178, 0.7157, 0.7121, 0.7096 and 0.7057. Here, we are following the ascending structure on July 14. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.7157 - 0.7178, hence, there is a high probability of a reversal into the correction. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7222. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7121 - 0.7096. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7057. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the local upward structure of July 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7058 Take profit: 0.7176

Buy: 0.7185 Take profit: 0.7220

Sell : 0.7120 Take profit : 0.7100

Sell: 0.7094 Take profit: 0.7060

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 125.37, 124.66, 124.26, 123.67, 123.21, 122.56 and 122.26. Here, we are following the July 10 upward structure. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range 124.26 - 124.66. The breakdown of the last level will allow us to count on a movement to a potential target - 125.37. Upon reaching this level, we expect a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 123.67 - 123.21. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 122.56. The range of 122.56 - 122.26 is the key support for the upside.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.26 Take profit: 124.66

Buy: 124.70 Take profit: 125.35

Sell: 123.65 Take profit: 123.25

Sell: 123.18 Take profit: 122.60

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 138.41, 137.73, 137.25, 136.55, 136.04, 135.48, 135.18 and 134.75. Here, we are following the July 17 upward structure. A consolidated movement is expected in the range 136.04 - 136.55. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is 137.25. There is a short-term upward movement in the range of 137.25 - 137.73. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.41. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.48 - 135.18. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 134.75. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 17

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.60 Take profit: 137.25

Buy: 137.27 Take profit: 137.70

Sell: 135.16 Take profit: 134.80

Sell: 134.75 Take profit: 134.10

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for USD/CAD on July 23, 2020

The priority is still to lower the quote in the trading chart, however, the pair is currently trading near the weekly control zone, which increases the likelihood of the impulse stopping and a correction forming within the chart. When testing the zone, a consolidation of short positions is needed.

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To short the quote, it is important to remember that strong impulses have a high chance of continuing, so any growth should be used to find profitable selling positions.

Thus, in order to get these profitable selling prices, a rise to last week's low is needed, which will give an opportunity to re-enter a bearish mood. Hold sales until the quote tests June's low, which is located at 1.3314.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Will retrace first before they continue the up movement on July 23, 2020.

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Before gold resumes its upward movement, it will decline approximately between the 1861.01 and 1854.83 levels. The pair may reach the 1871.58 level as its first target and the 1919.90 level as its second target. This scenario will come true if gold does not drop to 1840.38.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crude Oil on its way to 42.50: Analysis for July 23, 2020.

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The Crude Oil is now moving towards the 42.50 level. Before the price reaches that level, it has to reach 42.04 first before climbing as high as 42.50. As long as the commodity does not retrace downwards and closes below 41.18, the bullish scenario will be automatically canceled because if this level is reached, the CL price will close below 41.18.

.(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for July 23, 2020

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EUR/GBP found resistance at 0.9138 which wasn't a big surprise. It should just be a matter of time before this resistance is broken and EUR/GBP will be able to edge higher towards 0.9322 and 0.9500 as the next targets.

Support is seen in the 0.9053 - 0.9069 area. The pair may rally higher through resistance at 0.9138 to 0.9322.

R3: 0.9154

R2: 0 9138

R1: 0.9105

Pivot: 0.9085

S1: 0.9069

S2: 0.9053

S3: 0.9044

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8646 with our stop placed at 0.9000

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 23, 2020

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EUR/JPY has gained ground and it is now testing resistance at 124.43. This resistance should eventually give way for further growth to 125.85 and higher to 129.26. We have now entered a period, where EUR/JPY is likely to accelerate the uptrend and continue to defy a possible negative divergence.

Support is currently seen at 122.98, which will be able to protect the downside for a continuation through resistance at 124.43.

R3: 125.85

R2: 125.24

R1: 124.43

Pivot: 123.89

S1: 123.67

S2: 123.32

S3: 122.98

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 122.51 and we will raise our stop to 123.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin on the wave of a bullish trend

Greetings to crypto-newbies and experienced crypto enthusiasts!

In this article, we will break down the main bullish market signals and apply them to trading Bitcoin.

Let's start with the most significant news, cryptocurrency company Coinbase, which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, has begun preparing a procedure for placing shares on the stock market. The procedure for listing shares is still unknown, some rumors talk about a direct placement of shares, other insiders are considering an initial public offering, the timing is also not indicated: either the end of 2020, or maybe the beginning of 2021. Most importantly, one of the most influential companies in the crypto industry enters the US market and becomes a player in the global financial arena, which will entail investors and their trust in such a new trading instrument as a crypto asset. We will receive not only new cash infusions, but a full-scale advertising campaign that can set a bullish trend for both Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Let's pay attention to the details of Coinbase: at the end of 2018, its financial estimate was made in the region of $ 8 billion, and the annual profit could be $ 1.3 billion.With the current step, we will be able to see the company's capitalization by $ 15 - $ 30 billion, which will automatically bring it 3 (third) or even 2 (second) in terms of cryptocurrency market capitalization.

The second news reflects another HYIP of money injections in the crypto industry, where the well-known ICOs and IEOs are in the spotlight, on the basis of which billions of dollars were collected, as well as the lesser known to crypto hamsters DeFi.

What is DeFi?

DeFi [Decentralized Finance] is a decentralized finance industry that refers to a system of financial applications built on top of a blockchain network. The goal of this direction is to create an open and transparent ecosystem of financial services that is accessible to everyone and works without the intervention of an outside party or any government authorities. In this case, users will have full control over their assets and interact with this ecosystem through special applications. The main advantage of DiFi is easy and secure access to financial services.

Let's pay attention to the numbers, the total amount of locked funds in DiFi projects in 3.5 months has grown fivefold (!!!), from $ 571 million to $ 2.870 billion. their crypto projects DiFi prefix - and money "flows like a river". Reminds of a similar scenario in 2016-2017, when crypto projects for fundraising talked about blockchains, and hamsters, without even thinking, brought them money.

Now the scenario is similar, it is obvious that a bubble will appear, which will eventually burst. Now there is a hype, there are cash injections into the crypto industry, the price of crypto assets will rise, which has already affected altcoins, and this will affect Bitcoin.

Analyzing the above information, comes the comprehension of our previous article "Bitcoin-WHITES have activated dormant accounts", where millions of dollars came to the movement, and everything is not just that, WHITES have already started absorbing mega-profits.

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Current development and prospects

For 80 days in a row, the Bitcoin quote has been in the $ 8,500/$ 10,000 range, as if preparing the first cryptocurrency for something grand; now, we know what exactly we are being prepared for - for a bullish trend. The external background favors the crypto industry, and if nothing dramatic in the information noise happens, then the accumulation process will collapse and lead to a consistent upward movement of the BTC price sooner or later.

If we proceed from the areas of accumulation of stop orders [StopLoss], then the focus is still on the values of $8,300/$10,500, where, in the event of a breakdown of the upper boundary, we will see an avalanche-like spiral of long positions. With the current information background, such a turn will easily lead the quote to the values of $ 12,000- $ 13,000.

Be prepared that you can make very good profit in this situation, but nothing can be forever, so do not forget to fix the profit.

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General background of the crypto market

Analyzing the total market capitalization of the crypto industry, you can see that trading volumes, following the BTC rate, move in a conditional sideways channel, where the total market for the current hour is $ 277 billion.

If we look at the volume graph in general terms, we can see that the amplitude boundaries are the values of $245 and $284 billion.The maximum of the current year is $ 307 billion, the subsequent resistance is in the area of the 2019 maximum, $362 billion. As for the support levels, it is worth taking figures: $245 billion, $234 billion and $132 billion.

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The index of emotions (aka fear and euphoria) of the crypto market is 43 points. The index is held at a stable level above 40 points, which indicates a characteristic ambiguity, but not fear. A breakdown of the $ 10,500 border will automatically lead to market euphoria and an increase in the index to 50 points.

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Indicator analysis

Analyzing different sectors of time frames (TF), it can be seen that there is a buy signal relative to four-hour, daily and weekly periods, but while the quote moves in the conditional $8,500 / $10,000 range, you should not trust the signal due to its instability.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 23, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro rose by 42 points on Wednesday, marking the upper shadow of exactly 50% of the movement from February 2018 to March 2020. On the technical side, this growth increased the probability of a divergence with the Marlin oscillator. The resulting divergence line becomes less steep. After consolidating the price at 1.1560, we are waiting for the price at the important level of 1.1420, passing through the June 10 high.

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The hot news about the European recovery fund worth 750 billion euros is already cooling, since the bulk remains within the core of the eurozone, their distribution is not fair among the countries affected by the epidemic, and grants will be distributed for several more years. And a new hot news came on the scene – the US is closing, or rather, ordered China to close their consulate in Houston, which further increases the tension between the countries and, accordingly, reduces the desire of investors to buy risky currencies.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned from the overbought zone on the four-hour chart. A more definite signal for a reversal will occur when the price goes under the MACD line, approximately under the 1.1490 level, to which this line tends.

Summary: an advice to close long positions and wait for conditions confirming the reversal to form.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 23, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound briefly "magnetized" to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (the February 28 low), it is very possible for the target to move with accelerated pace to the lower goals of 1.2646, 1.2540. Yesterday, the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.2646) reached the lower shadow on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator begins to turn down, which increases the chances of a price reversal, but this is still only a prerequisite.

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The current situation is still rising, and the 1.2812 target is still relevant. And mathematically, the probability of continuing growth is 60%. On the other hand, a confirmation of the price's intent to reach 1.2812 is overcoming the July 21 high at 1.2767, which is very close to the target level.

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The first reversal sign is when the price falls under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, around the 1.2680 mark.

In the end, we expect that the mathematical probability of a decline will become predominant in the coming days, and there will be signals to sell.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on July 23, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar slightly rose on Wednesday, the upper shadow almost touching the lower limit of the target range of 0.7190-0.7225. But this was enough for the Marlin oscillator to form a triple divergence on the daily scale.

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This formation is rare, it is a strong reversal pattern. The price falling below the target level of 0.7080 will confirm its intention to continue the decline to 0.6900 (this level is the MACD line's target), and then in the medium term.

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The Marlin oscillator began to quickly decline from the overbought zone on the four-hour chart, probably in order to confirm the first reversal signal on the daily divergence by going into the negative zone. The price leaving the area under the MACD line is a confirmation of this signal, approximately in the range of 0.7060/80.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 23, 2020

USD/JPY

The signal level of 106.68 was an insurmountable obstacle for the Japanese yen on Tuesday and Wednesday. But the MACD line also proved to be an insurmountable resistance on the four-hour chart, for the sixth time already.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator tried to go over the zero line yesterday, but it also failed. At the moment, the price is below the MACD line and the balance line (red indicator). According to these signs, the price is directed to attack the price support of 106.68.

Consolidating the price above the MACD line, which is guided by yesterday's high, can reveal an increasing scenario before the price. Its first target will be the 107.77 level.

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The price went over the MACD line and the price channel line on the daily chart, stopping before the balance line. Marlin remained in the negative trend zone, and the overall market mood remains bearish.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on July 23. COT report. London's optimism lies outside of this three-dimensional

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair corrected to the 1.2636-1.2660 area on Wednesday and once again rebounded from it, but this time from above. Thus, the upward movement resumed, and the initiative remained in the hands of buyers. As a result, the pair returned to the resistance level of 1.2755 by the end of the trading day. A new price rebound from this target can provoke a new round of corrective movement. In addition, an upward trend line has formed, which supports bull traders. And at the same time it will allow you to determine when the bears will come into play (consolidating the price below the trend line). So far, we are considering the option of maintaining the upward trend.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling a possible trend reversal. However, there is still no confirmation on this chart, or on the higher one. The latest Commitment of traders (COT) report showed that professional traders (non-commercial category) continued to open Buy-positions, but not as zealously as before. In total, only 2,800 contracts were opened. However, the opposing category of commercial traders (those who enter the foreign exchange market in order to purchase currency for their commercial activities) closed both Buy and Sell contracts during the same reporting week. The British currency continued to rise in price during the July 15 to 21 period. This means that the new COT report may show that the bullish sentiment is strengthening among traders. The pound sterling began to rise in price even more after July 21, so we expect to see an increase in the net position in the next reports. If this does not happen, then we will assume that large traders are preparing for the trend to change into a downward trend.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair remains positive at this time. Positive for the British pound. Only thanks to events and crises in the United States. And only until traders remember that the situation in the UK is no better (economically). The well-known British edition The Daily Telegraph published an article yesterday expressing fears that an agreement between London and Brussels would never be reached. And this threatens the British pound and the entire economy with a new fall. It is easy to guess that from January 1, 2021, almost all British businesses that have at least some business ties with European businesses will work with complications. This applies not only to trade, in which duties will rise, various quotas and World Trade Organization norms will begin to operate. This applies to both supply chains and vital categories of goods that may be in short supply in Britain. You should also keep in mind that more than 50% of British exports went specifically to Europe. According to the latest information, London wants to conclude a trade deal with Washington. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson even met in Downing Street. However, just how quickly a trade agreement can be concluded was demonstrated to the whole world by London, whose prime minister has been reiterating that it is possible to reach an agreement with Brussels in a few months. As you can see, it didn't work out for several months. And in the case of the United States, it is even more difficult, since in a few months it will no longer be US President Donald Trump to lead the country.

There are two main options for the development of events on July 23:

1) The outlook for the bulls continues to be very positive. Buyers have returned to the important level 1.2755. Thus, you are advised to stay with pound purchases while aiming for 1.2812 and 1.2846, if traders manage to confidently overcome the current target of 1.2755, from which the rebound occurred last time. Potential Take Profit in this case will amount to another 40 to 80 points.

2) Sellers are advised to start considering the possibilities of opening short positions with the targets of the Senkou Span B line (1.2565) and the support level of 1.2474, but for this they need to wait until the Kijun-sen line (1.2638) and the upward trend line have been overcome. Potential Take Profit ranges from 60 to 150 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on July 23. COT report. Four types of crises finish the US dollar.

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair continued a rather strong upward movement on the hourly timeframe on July 22. Now it is already well above the ascending channel, in which the pair has been strictly moving in the middle for a long time. However, the bulls have recently felt the surge of strength and the weakness of the bears, which, in principle, are simply absent from the market at this time. From time to time, the pair is corrected, but no more. Thus, the upward movement may continue with the final target for the week - 1.1631. As for the possible prospects of sellers, they need to wait, at least, to consolidate below the critical line. But even in this case, the price will remain within the upward channel, which means that it will be difficult for the bears to count on forming a downward trend.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed upward on the 15 minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the short term and no signs of an emerging trend change. The latest Commitments of traders (COT) report clearly showed that the bullish sentiment of the market remains. Professional market players continue to actively buy the European currency. That is, we can conclude that the aggregate demand for the euro is growing, while the demand for the US dollar is decreasing. Since it is obvious that the trend is precisely formed by large traders, especially those who enter the market with the aim of making a profit (non-commercial category), their mood is an extremely important factor for ordinary traders. So, given that the euro has continued to rise this week, the next COT report, due out on Friday, will seek to answer the question of whether the bullish pressure on the pair has increased further? If so, then we can expect the upward movement to continue in the medium term.

The fundamental backdrop for the EUR/USD pair was controversial on Wednesday. As we have said many times, now there are a huge number of different factors that can hypothetically influence the movement of the pair and the mood of traders. These are four types of crises (epidemiological, social, economic, political), and the constant wars of US President Donald Trump with the Democrats, and China. This is also positive news from the EU, since the EU summit ended with the approval of the budget for the next seven years and the approval of the recovery fund. Although we believe that the news from Europe did not have a special impact on the euro/dollar pair. However, in general, we have a persistent negative background from the US, and generally neutral from Europe. In such conditions, it is not surprising that the euro is growing. The US government is doing nothing at this time to resolve at least one of the crises the country is in. Moreover, Trump says that the coronavirus situation could get worse, albeit much worse? Following these words, the number of investors willing to buy the dollar diminished even more. In general, now the US dollar can count on a purely technical correction against the euro. And a new long-term upward trend for the euro.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for July 23:

1) Buyers definitely continue to dominate the market, and the upward movement has intensified. Buy orders remain relevant with the target at the resistance level of 1.1631. Thus, either you should stay with purchases and a Stop Loss below Kijun-sen or at the discretion of traders, open new longs with the last goal at the signal of some fast indicator, such as Heiken Ashi. The potential Take Profit in this case is up to 60 points.

2) The bears are just resting and waiting for buyers to give them a chance to seize the initiative in the market. Sellers are still not strong enough to form a new downward trend. Thus, all that remains is to wait for the price to consolidate at least below the Kijun-sen line. In this case, you can try to sell the pair with the aim of the lower line of the ascending channel. More serious prospects will open below the rising channel. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 60 points.

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GBPAUD broke below ascending trendline support! Further drop expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.78812

Reason for Entry: 50% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.76956

Reason for Take Profit: Recent graphical swing low

Stop Loss: 1.79299

Reason for Stop Loss: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, Ascending trendline resistance, moving average resistance

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Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the GBP/USD pair on July 23? Plan for opening and closing deals

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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The situation with the GBP/USD pair got a little confusing on the third trading day of the week. There are too many factors that should be considered in order to successfully predict long-term movement. The key event of the past day was an article by the British publication The Daily Telegraph, in which the author, referring to a high-ranking official in the British government, wrote that with a high degree of probability, London and Brussels will not reach an agreement on Brexit. This means that trade between the UK and the European Union after the transition period will be carried out according to the rules of the World Trade Organization. Why is it so important to the pound sterling? The British economy has suffered several major blows in recent years. Leaving the EU after a 47-year stay is not an easy matter. We will have to break the ties that have developed over the years and decades, break the contracts between European and British companies. All this significantly worsened the prospects of the British economy even at the preliminary stage, which lasted for a total of three years. All this time, Britain continued to pay contributions to the EU treasury and tried to find a way to leave the EU as gently as possible so that the economic consequences would not be devastating to its own economy. As we can see now, it didn't work out. In addition, the British economy was hit by the coronavirus crisis, which rode like a roller throughout Great Britain. And if Britain loses its free trade deal with the EU from January 1 2021, this promises further losses and losses to its economy. And the weaker the economy, the weaker the national currency. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will strive to conclude trade agreements with both the EU and the US, but so far all these are just talks and plans. We remind you that it can take several years to negotiate a trade agreement. Thus, this is not a near-term perspective.

Technical analysis enables the British currency to strengthen. If the price overcomes the 1.2734 level, it will be able to continue its upward movement. Moreover, now there is an upward trend line (the line that supports the growth of the pair, on the chart - red). The trend will change if the price consolidates below it for an hour. Based on technical constructions, there are two possible scenarios for the development of events:

1) If the current intermediate target of 1.2734 is overcome, then we will have the right to expect a continuation of the upward movement to the 1.2812 level, which is the June 10 high. Stop Loss level can be placed 30 points below the current price. We place the Take Profit order just below the level of 1.2812.

2) But sales, from our point of view, are now risky to consider. We believe that it is possible to sell the pound/dollar pair after consolidating below the trend line. In this case, you are advised to consider the levels 1.2623 and 1.2519 as targets for the downward movement.

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD pair on July 23? Plan for opening and closing deals

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continues to amaze with its movements. Yesterday we said that a fall could begin from the area of 1.1570, where the upper line of the narrowing channel passes. However, the price did not even stop near this line and, in fact, deprived traders of the signal. Such a strong upward trend must be justified in terms of news or fundamental events. There may be several hypotheses, but each does not bring us closer to answering the question, what to expect from the pair in the future? For example, what are the chances of continuing the upward movement after it has already gone up at least 800 points, if we take the last low as a starting point? All this time, the pair has corrected by only 250 points, and in recent days it has been growing with terrible force. Compare, as always necessary, the economies of the European Union (the issuer of the euro) and the United States (the issuer of the dollar). The situation in the European Union is calm. There are almost no economic news and reports. At the beginning of the week, leaders have decided to form a 750 billion euro recovery fund at the EU summit, which is certainly good news. But now everything is bad in America. The country is in the same economic crisis as the EU. However, the prospects for the US economy are now much more vague, and the timing of its recovery raises many questions. The fact is that the coronavirus epidemic continues to rage in the United States. We would like to write "which the authorities cannot stop," but the White House is not particularly keen on stopping it. US President Donald Trump compares COVID-2019 with a runny nose, and the very next day he urges everyone to wear masks and "expects the situation to worsen." But at the same time, a new quarantine is not introduced in the United States. This significantly reduces the demand for the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Nevertheless, technical analysis gives traders the opportunity to make new sales, although it is somewhat dangerous. There was no clear and distinct rebound from the rising channel line. Thus, we cannot make an unambiguous conclusion about the pair's readiness to fall. An update of the local high (1.1601) can provoke a new upward movement. The following scenarios are possible on July 23:

1) Buying the euro is still relevant, but we believe that opening them near the upper channel line is risky, especially after a long upward trend. We recommend traders to re-consider buying the euro if the upper channel line is broken once more and the 1.1601 high is updated. You are advised to set the target based on volatility, that is, at a distance of 50-60 points.

2) You can try to sell the currency pair with a distant target of 1.1371. This goal is quite achievable and means a possible fall to the lower channel line. The Stop Loss level can be set above the level of 1.1601 to protect yourself from possible losses if the upward trend continues. Intermediate Take Profit can be placed every 50-60 points.

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 23. There will be no deal, according to British media. Washington is once again aggravating

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 106.9405

Well, the British pound was in absolute panic yesterday. The pound often reacts to various kinds of rumors and expectations, but yesterday it first fell down by 100 points, and then went up by about the same amount. Why is it even difficult to understand what it was? The reaction of traders to any important and significant event? Or is it just a banal, but sharp, technical correction against the upward trend? Recall that no macroeconomic data from overseas was received this week. Thus, traders, in fact, can only react to "coronavirus" data from overseas. Of course, it is impossible not to mention the themes of mass rallies and protests in America, as well as the deep political crisis. In fact, now half of the country has turned against Donald Trump. And along with half of America and half of the world, the coalition is led by China outside the US and Democrats inside the US. All this news, and most importantly, traders' fears for the US economic prospects, have been pushing the pound up for several weeks. However, yesterday the well-known British publication The Daily Telegraph published an article stating that an agreement with the European Union will probably not be concluded. The publication reported that the deadline, which was set by Boris Johnson himself, remains only a few days, and the parties have not managed to move forward in resolving key, controversial issues. The publication also writes that a "basic agreement" with Brussels can still be reached if the Europeans make certain concessions. However, "the UK government already expects that it will conduct trade with the European Union on the terms of the World Trade Organization," according to The Daily Telegraph. However, the British publication did not report anything new. We have been writing for several months that the probability of reaching an agreement between the British and the Europeans does not exceed 5%. Michel Barnier, the head of the EU negotiating team, has said several times that London is in no hurry to negotiate, although it has set a deadline for them until the end of July. Thus, the British are not particularly eager to reach an agreement, and there are at least four disputed issues. So, what are the chances that the parties will be able to reach an understanding in a maximum of one or two months? Therefore, from our point of view, the value of The Daily Telegraph's information can only be in the fact that this information is obtained from government circles. If even the British authorities are not particularly hiding that there will be no deal with the EU, then we really need to prepare for a "hard" Brexit. Presumably on this information, the pound plowed down 100 points. But very quickly came to its senses, as traders remembered that this is the option of ending the Kingdom's stay in the alliance and is expected from the moment when Boris Johnson became Prime Minister.

At the same time, the conflict between the United States and China continues to develop. No, it's not burning. Rather, the picture looks like a smoldering fire, from which at any moment dry grass can burst into flames, if the wind blows harder than usual and in the wrong direction. On July 22, it was announced that the White House had ordered the closure of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Texas. According to Chinese diplomats, "this is an unheard-of escalation". Beijing also said that it will respond to these actions of the American side. In addition, representatives of China believe that "this is a political provocation and it will definitely worsen relations between the countries." As for explanations, Washington did not provide any official information about why it decided to close the Consulate. However, US State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said that "the Chinese Consulate General in Houston is being closed in order to protect American intellectual property and personal information of the American population". As expected, China immediately rejected any accusations from the American side and rejected suggestions by some media that the Consulate was on fire because its employees burned secret documents. Washington gave Beijing 72 hours to close. What will happen next, you do not need to guess for a long time. Now, most likely, there will be the closure of some American Consulate in China, which will be followed by the same angry speech of the Americans, blaming all the troubles on Beijing. The point is different. It seems that the world's two largest economies are finally on the warpath. In this situation, we can only hope that the next US President will not be Donald Trump, who is used to solving all issues from a position of force, threats and pressure. These methods work with weak opponents, and even then not always. Speaking of China, the whole world saw that the United States itself suffered from the trade standoff, and China also managed to respond to America with a "coronavirus". Joe Biden is not a panacea for resolving the issue with Beijing, but he clearly will not support further deterioration of relations with China.

In the UK, no important macroeconomic reports or events were scheduled for July 22. The same picture awaits traders today, July 23. Accordingly, market participants can only consider news that does not appear in the calendar. This category includes all speeches by Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Michel Barnier, David Frost, central bankers and Finance Ministers of both countries. Any information about the escalation of the conflict with Beijing, the "coronavirus" in the United States and mass riots in American cities will also be interesting.

From a technical point of view, the quotes of the pound/dollar pair continue to be located above the moving average line, and both channels of linear regression continue to be directed upwards. Thus, each new turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward can be used to open new long positions. The fundamental background, as we can see, does not support the US currency at all, and the macroeconomic background is simply absent now. Several more or less important reports will be published on Friday, but, as we can see, traders do not particularly need them in order to conduct active trading of the pair. In this light, we will be more interested in the new COT report on Friday, which will show how the mood of traders has changed over the past days.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 106 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, July 23, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2625 and 1.2837. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator downward will indicate a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2695

S2 – 1.2634

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2756

R2 – 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair also resumed its upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, the flat is canceled, and the market is dominated by buyers. Thus, it is recommended to trade for an increase with the goals of 1.2756, 1.2817 and 1.2837 (the level of volatility )before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Short positions can be considered after fixing the price below the moving average with the goals of 1.2573 and 1.2512.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 23. Trump resumed "coronavirus" briefings. In Portland, mass clashes are taking place

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 167.5141

Well, the epic with the approval of the budget for 2021-2027 and the fund for recovery after the pandemic is over. Now you can forget about it and watch the macroeconomic indicators, which must now start to improve and in light of the fact that a pandemic in Europe retreated and in the background of the fact that the European economy will be given financial assistance, for which the EU will have to pay for almost 40 years. Meanwhile, something very strange and frightening is happening in the currency market right now. The European currency has again jumped up today despite the fact that no interesting reports and news were received today by traders from the EU. We can assume that important information came from overseas. Across the ocean, everything is as before. However, something provoked new purchases of the European currency and at the same time sales of the British pound. As we have already found out, there was no news from Europe today. Therefore, the reasons should still be sought in the United States.

And the first thing that catches your eye is a new speech by the head of the White House, Donald Trump, who decided to resume daily briefings on the "coronavirus". He did it in a way that it would have been better not to have done. The American President continues to make absolutely contradictory statements. For example, today the US leader said that "the situation with the pandemic in America will probably get worse than it is now before it improves". That is, the US President finally realized that the "coronavirus" is not a runny nose or flu. After a series of comments and statements that would have made all the doctors in the world laugh if the situation with the epidemic was not so terrible, Trump is finally showing that he is serious about the virus. And even recommended that all Americans wear masks, despite the fact that previously demonstratively refused to wear this means of protection and did not make any statements that this should be done by the population. However, when the number of cases in America came to 4 million, Trump finally realized that it is necessary to somehow stop the spread of the "Chinese infection". However, Trump himself does not believe that the country needs a new "lockdown". Also, Trump does not believe that it is necessary to tighten the quarantine measures. The US President believes that the economy should recover, not idle. Therefore, health with health, life with life, and everyone should go to work and work so that the American President has an increased chance of being re-elected in November. However, the US leader immediately came under another round of criticism. This time, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is openly feuding with Trump, said that "the president finally admitted his mistakes with words about the need to wear medical masks". Pelosi also called the "coronavirus" the "Trump virus", openly hinting that it is because of the president's inaction that the country has faced such a huge number of diseases and deaths.

Meanwhile, in the US, a serious confrontation is unfolding between the population and Donald Trump, as well as between the authorities of many American states and cities and Donald Trump. Recall that protests and rallies continue in the United States against the background of a racist scandal that took place two months ago. Just yesterday, we said that Trump sent paramilitary units to Portland, Oregon to quell rallies and riots. Trump also complained that the Democrats will ruin the country if Joe Biden comes to power. As an example, he cited the city of Portland, "where rallies have been going on for 50 days, however, the authorities do nothing to suppress them". Now it is reported that in the city of Portland in early July, people arrived in camouflage uniforms without any identification marks. It turned out that these detachments are part of a division of the Ministry of Internal Security, which was created recently. These people have "police" written on their uniforms, however, they are not really police. After several skirmishes between the demonstrators and the military, fierce fighting between them began. As a result, the authorities of the state of Oregon and congressional leaders demanded that Donald Trump withdraw paramilitary units from the state and the city, accusing them of further inciting conflicts. The mayor of Portland, Ted Wheeler, says that before the appearance of the military in the city, all rallies and protests were very peaceful and calm, which is not prohibited by US laws. Skirmishes and mass carnage began to occur exactly when unidentified military forces appeared in the city. However, acting US Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf believes that "these are not peaceful protests, but the protesters want to cause damage to the federal courthouse and law enforcement officers". According to him, the protesters caused damage to the infrastructure of the city, and "the authorities of the city of Portland are absolutely inactive, do not try to stop the crowd, which is armed with bats, firecrackers, pipes, bottles of flammable mixtures and other dangerous things". It is also reported that protests are continuing at this time in 140 American cities. Thus, the United States is now in absolute anarchy, which is absolutely unknown how to end. Well, Trump's position continues to deteriorate in the run-up to the election. Joe Biden, as we have repeatedly said, does not even need to do anything to get ahead of Trump by at least 10%.

On Wednesday, July 22, the European Union again did not have any macroeconomic publications. Thus, we believe that the reasons for this particular movement of the euro/dollar pair are the same. The social crisis in the United States, the economic crisis in the United States, the political crisis and epidemiological crisis. There is nothing more to say. The country is gripped by protests, the number of infections is approaching 4 million, the president does not rule the country, but fights against all his opponents, who are ready to do anything to make sure that the next president is not Trump. These are the current realities of America.

As of Thursday, July 23, only an absolutely secondary report on applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the United States, and there will be no publications at all in the European Union. However, the fundamental background that continues to come from overseas is now enough for the euro currency to continue to grow steadily, and the dollar to fall steadily. From a technical point of view, the upward trend persists, as evidenced by both channels of linear regression. And it is still unclear how the US currency can change the current trend.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 23 is 82 pips and is still characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1487 and 1.1651. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a turn of a downward correction within the framework of an upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1475

S2 – 1.1353

S3 – 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1597

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1841

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its sharply increased upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in purchases of the euro currency with the goals of 1.1651 and 1.1719, until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward. It is recommended to open sell orders no earlier than the pair is fixed below the moving average line with the first targets of 1.1353 and 1.1230.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD breaking below downside confirmation, possible drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3416

Reason for Entry: The 1.272 fib extension

Take Profit :1.3363

Reason for Take Profit: The 1.618 fib extension

Stop Loss:1.3461

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Infusion remains bullish, but the 16th figure is still too tough

The euro-dollar pair conquers new price heights. Today traders were able to refresh the one and a half year high by testing the 16th figure. On the one hand, such price dynamics were predictable, given the positive results of the EU summit. On the other hand, impulsive growth to 22-month highs is alarming: now no one can say with certainty at what price level this impulse will fade away.

Nevertheless, certain conclusions can be drawn from the current situation. First, let's analyze the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair over the past month, that is, since June 21. To do this, go to the weekly chart (W1). As you can see, the pair has been demonstrating a pronounced upward trend over the past four weeks. At the same time, we see deep price pullbacks along with stable growth: the pair grows to a certain point, then pulls back and goes up again with renewed vigor. The wave-like dynamics change from week to week: if an almost 100-point pullback was recorded at the end of June, then last week the gap between the weekly high and the Friday closing level was only 15 points.

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This week, the EUR/USD pair went up almost without swinging, having renewed multi-month highs. The fundamental background, which we will talk about below, allows buyers of the pair to show character: the euro is in demand, while the dollar index continues to fall. The indicator dipped to 4-month lows, reflecting weak demand across the market. The greenback is losing its positions in almost all dollar pairs, and the euro-dollar pair is no exception.

But here it should be emphasized that the assault on the 16th piece ended in failure. The 1.1600 resistance level was a tough nut to crack. Apparently, many traders take profits and/or open sell positions in this price area, thereby putting pressure on the pair. Therefore, buying the pair looks risky at the moment.

We could observe a similar situation yesterday: the pair did not overcome the level of 1.1500 on the first try. Purchases also looked risky at the border of the 15th figure, as the risk of a downward correction increased with the deterioration of the upward momentum. But as soon as the bulls crossed the 1.1510 mark, the upward movement gained momentum again, as traders believed in further price growth and began to open long positions.

In other words, while EUR/USD traders are besieging the 16th figure, it is better to wait with purchases. This is a psychologically important mark, overcoming it will allow us to speak of approaching two-year highs: in this case, the strongest resistance level is 1.1730 - this is the lower border of the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku indicator on the monthly chart (the highest timeframe is MN).

In general, the fundamental background contributes to the pair's growth. While the European currency enjoys the support of Brussels, the dollar is under the yoke of its own problems, which are primarily associated with the spread of the coronavirus. The United States still ranks first among all countries in the world in terms of the number of coronavirus infections and deaths. While the daily incidence in the world is gradually decreasing, this figure has begun to rise again in the United States. Earlier this week, the dollar tried to regain its position amid a sharp decline in the incidence - 45,000 infections were registered on Sunday, while the daily level did not fall below 60,000 last week. But such a decline was due to the "weekend effect": the daily growth was above the 60,000 mark during the first few days of the week. Florida has become a new epicenter for the spread of the epidemic in the country, while the number of cases is doubling every four days in Miami, in particular.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump, who previously linked the increase in the number of infected with the increase in the number of tests performed, unexpectedly urged Americans to "prepare for the worst times." According to him, the situation with COVID-19 in the country will initially "worsen significantly before it starts to improve." Such pessimism of the head of the White House has increased the concern of traders about the prospects for the American economy.

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In addition, the debate over a new package of assistance to the US economy continues in Washington: Republicans are drafting their one trillion dollar bill, while Democrats are pushing for their own law, which provides for the allocation of three trillion dollars. Uncertainty on this issue puts background pressure on the US currency.

Thus, at the moment it is better to take a wait-and-see attitude on the EUR/USD pair. Longs look risky - at least until buyers consolidate within the 16th figure. As soon as this happens (and the likelihood of this scenario being realized is quite high), you can consider buying at short distances - you can select the 1.1650 mark as the first target. The closest support level is 1.1470 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the H4 timeframe) - here you can place a stop loss.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com