Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 8, 2020

The pair traded downward on Monday and once again tested 1.1813 - a 23.6% pullback level (red dashed line). Today the price may continue to move down. No news is expected on the economic calendar.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move downward from the level of 1.1816 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.1753 located at the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move downward with the target of 1.1690 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward from the level of 1.1816 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.1753 located at the lower border of the Bollinger Band indicator (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move downward with the target of 1.1690 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario is a downward trend with the target at the support level 1.1802 (white bold line). From here, the price may move upward with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dashed line).

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Euro could decline if ECB adopts new stimulus measures

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Euro halts its rally ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, largely because if the bank adopts new stimulus measures during it, dollar will rise, which will inevitably lead to a decline in EUR/USD in the market. However, analysts say that investors should ignore this short-term volatility, and instead focus on the bigger picture: a new currency war in the foreign exchange market.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, also supported this claim, saying that the technical indicators point to a continued consolidation, however, he does not expect a significant correction.

"If major central banks are making efforts to convince investors that they are serious about raising inflation, which, in part, means a longer rate cut, then expecting a deep or stable decline in gold prices will be difficult," he said.

Commerzbank analysts also said that they see an upward potential for gold prices, as the ECB's actions could trigger competitive devaluations.

Jonathan Butler, a precious metals analyst at Mitsubishi, said that it was no surprise that governments and central banks are focusing on increasing inflationary pressures in an effort to stimulate the global economy.

"Governments and central banks around the world are more eager than ever to raise inflation in order to avoid deflation and increase of public debt this year," he said.

"Negative interest rates, as well as the current economic crisis, have served as solid support for gold over the past few months. Thus, we expect the macroeconomic environment to continue to be conducive to gold investment," he added.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD on September 8? Plan for opening and closing trades

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD currency pair spent night trading in the same narrow side channel in which it had traded for the previous three days. This channel is capped at 1.1790 and 1.1865. Therefore, as of Tuesday morning, the technical picture of the pair has not changed at all. In our recent articles, we advised novice traders to trade short while aiming for the lower channel line at 1.1790. In particular, we advised you last night to set Take Profit orders around 1.1790 and Stop Loss orders to zero on open trades for sell positions and go to sleep. Basically, as we can see this morning, the quotes have almost reached the 1.1790 level. Therefore, traders had the opportunity to earn several tens of points both yesterday and today. Thus, you can close short positions and wait for new signals here. There may be only two of them during the course of the day. Either the pair will leave the side channel through its lower line, which will make it possible to resume trading downward with the target of 1.1700 (the lower boundary of the senior side channel), or it will rebound from 1.1790, which will allow you to buy long to the top line of the lower side of the channel 1.1865.

Today, novice traders can pay attention only to the report on the EU GDP in the second quarter, which we already mentioned in yesterday's evening review. We believe that traders will only react to this report if the real value of the indicator in the second assessment differs from the forecast. For example, if the real value improves from -12.1% q/q to -11%, then traders might perceive this as a positive moment, and the euro may start growing during the day. We do not expect a significant reaction, the movement is unlikely to be strong, since there will hardly be a big difference from the GDP value a month ago (first estimate). Nevertheless, this indicator is important, you should not skip it. In addition to this report, we recommend that you follow the US news feeds. At this time, the lion's share of all news that excites the markets and makes them trade actively comes from America. Recent key topics are coronavirus, vaccinations and elections. If the number of daily reported cases in the US continues to decline, that's good for the dollar. If the US starts the vaccination procedure, it is also good for the dollar. Elections are simply an undying topic on which the future of the country and its foreign and domestic policies depend.

Possible scenarios for September 8:

1) Buy positions on the pair are generally not recommended at this time, since the pair has settled below the upward trend line, so it is more on the downtrend. Nevertheless, if the price rebounds off the lower line of the small side channel at 1.1790, then novice traders can try to take longs with the target of the upper line of the same channel at 1.1865. The problem is that it needs a clear rebound at 1.1790, which is not yet available.

2) Sell positions are still looking more relevant now. However, the price fell to the lower line of the side channel, so you are advised to not sell the pair at this time. In order to be able to open new short positions, you are advised to wait until quotes settle below the side channel and in this case, start new sell positions while aiming for 1.1766 and 1.1700. However, volatility at this time remains weak, you can also consider it as very weak, and with such volatility, the price will unlikely be able to reach 1.1700 today or tomorrow, even theoretically.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Trading idea for EUR/USD

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Long positions were supposed to be set from 50% Fibonacci yesterday, however, the quote failed to follow the scheme, refusing to raise EUR/USD on the chart.

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Thus, the best option now is to reduce the risk, moving stop loss from 1.17800 to 1.17950.

In addition, below are targets for a decrease, that is, news highs behind which the bulls hide the risks:

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Such follows the classic and trusted Price Action and Stop Hunting strategies, with which traders have to control risks so as to avoid reducing or losing profit.

Best of luck!

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September 8, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

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The EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways within the depicted expanding channel since August 3.

Previously, a temporary resistance level was formed around 1.1900 which prevented further upside movement for and forced the pair to have a downside pause for sometime.

On August 31, the EURUSD pair achieved another breakout above the previously mentioned resistance zone.

Significant SELLING pressure was applied around 1.2000 where the upper limit of the movement pattern came to meet the pair.

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a quick bearish decline towards 1.1800. More downside movement is expected towards the lower limit of the movement pattern around 1.1770-1.1750.

Any downside pullback towards this price zone around 1.1750 should be considered for a BUYING opportunity.

Initial target would be located around 1.1860 while Stop Loss should be placed just below 1.1720.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 8. COT reports. Euro ready to fall. Bears aim for breakout at 1.1784

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Low volume and volatility from yesterday was directly related to Labor Day in the United States. We could not wait to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1853 in order to enter short positions. Also, the bulls did not reach support at 1.1792, which did not make it possible to generate a signal to buy the euro. As a result, the technical picture has slightly changed, which we will talk about below. First, we need to take note of important changes in the futures market, where the balance of power between buyers and sellers has changed, which may affect the EUR/USD pair's direction in the long-term.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 1 showed a decrease in long non-commercial positions from 262,061 to 250,867, while short non-commercial positions increased from 50,309 to 54,130. New annual highs from the euro and the bulls' inability to break through the area above the 20th figure, which we clearly saw earlier this month, led to a sharp closure of long positions and profit taking by traders as well as a build-up of short ones. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position slightly decreased and reached 196,747, against 211,752 a week earlier.

As for the current technical picture in the EURUSD pair, buyers need to urgently return the intermediate resistance level of 1.1823 to themselves, which acts as a kind of midway of the 1.1784-1.1863 side channel. Consolidating above this level forms a good entry point into long positions, which will lead to a rapid rise towards the area of the upper border of 1.1863. However, it will only be possible to talk about a change in the downward trend after a breakout of the 1.1863 range, which will open a direct road to the highs of 1.1905 and 1.1949, where I recommend taking profits. You can also consider long positions in the euro after forming the next false breakout in the area of a very large support of 1.1784, on which buyers have high hopes for. However, you should understand that in case bulls are not active at this level and the pair rapidly moves up, most likely the third test of this area will lead to its breakout. In this case, it is best to postpone long positions until a new low of 1.1750 has been updated, or buy EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from a larger support at 1.1714, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Today, sellers of the euro will count on weak eurozone fundamental data, as well as on a downward revision bloc's GDP for the second quarter, which will allow it to break through the area below the support of 1.1784 on its third attempt. Consolidating below this level and testing it from the bottom up will provide a good signal to open short positions in euros while hoping to fall towards the support of 1.1750, which is where I recommend taking profits. Bears will aim for the 1.1714 area in the middle of the week, considering it as the long-term target. A false breakout and unsuccessfully consolidating at the 1.1823 level, where the moving averages also pass, also forms a good entry point for short positions in hopes to continue the pair's downward trend. In case bulls are not active at this level, it is best to postpone short positions until the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.1863 has been updated and sell there on a rebound, counting on a correction of 15-20 points within the day. A larger level for sell positions is seen around 1.1905.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of further decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator around 1.1795 will increase pressure on the euro. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1830 area will lead to a sharper rise in the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 8, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin's price has dropped back to below $ 10,000 on major exchanges today. This is the key level testing time. The three factors that likely contributed to the sharp decline in Bitcoin's value are miners, a strong dollar, and profitable whales.

When Bitcoin's price suddenly fell 5% to $ 9,975 on Binance, BitMEX liquidations fell below $ 40 million. Typically, a sharp price movement cancels futures contracts worth over $ 100 million. Futures data suggest that the selling pressure came from the spot market. While this is possible, retail investors are unlikely to start losing aggressively above $ 10,500. The whales are more likely to cash in a profit at the $ 10,500 site that in the past served as a long-standing resistance level for Bitcoin, though the sell-off began since Bitcoin reached $ 12,000.

The gradual sell-off of BTC by miners since mid-August may have exerted significant selling pressure on Bitcoin, which is probably the second reason for the decline. However, vice president of Poolin Alejandro De La Torre stressed that keeping track of miners' inflows is difficult.

And the third reason - the US dollar. A common theme of the last two weeks - after Bitcoin consolidation - has been the strengthening of the dollar. It started to show signs of a rebound after four months of decline, while the euro started to decline. As both Bitcoin and gold are priced primarily in US dollars, and many BTC traders are based in the US, the rising dollar has contributed to a weakening of the BTC pace.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $9,854 and bounced yet back again towards the level of $10,343. The market keeps hovering around the level of $10,000 again as this is very important psychological level for market participants. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,248, $10 343 and $10,430 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,704. The market conditions are oversold, but the momentum remains weak and negative, so another wave down might be just around the corner.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,397

WR2 - $12,625

WR1 - $11,243

Weekly Pivot - $10,566

WS1 - $9,071

WS2 - $8,375

WS3 - $6,978

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic correction are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,463 and $10,000.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 8, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

With online payments company Wirecard going through bankruptcy this month, major financial services such as VISA, PayPal and Mastercard are in a rush to fill the digital payment void and be among the first to offer cryptographic cards payments, experts in the crypto industry have found.

During a media interview, Jerry Chan, CEO of blockchain service provider TAAL, and Rod Hsu, president and co-founder of the Coincurve virtual currency platform, agreed that competition may be just what the industry needs to change the way digital currencies are used as a method payments.

But Chan goes beyond the need for universal cryptocurrency awareness and points out that blockchain can make payment services even more efficient:

"The payment technology is already quite efficient. (...) Credit cards prevent fraud, and this insurance cost is borne by merchants and their banks. Blockchain platforms that are transparent, immutable, and do not support coin mixing or concealment technologies such as Bitcoin SV, can largely eliminate fraud, thus reducing costs for sellers. "

Hsu of CoinCurve also added that the current payment ecosystem has different roles in this process. This includes clearing houses, banks or intermediaries of payment service providers and increases fees and the efficiency of settlement.

Technical Market Outlook:

After the ETH/USD pair has been capped at the level of $355.24, the bears took control of the market and push it down again. Since then the market is locked in a narrow trading range located between the levels of $316.21 - $362.60 as it awaits the breakout in either direction. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $362.60, $369.37 and $375.62. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $305.20. The market conditions are oversold, but the momentum remains weak and negative, so another wave down might be just around the corner.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $614.65

WR2 - $551.18

WR1 - $435.26

Weekly Pivot - $373.02

WS1 - $258.25

WS2 - $194.29

WS3 - $78.24

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 8, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has dropped below the level of 1.3215, which is below the 61% Fibonacci retracement. All the bounces are shallow and being used to open more sell orders. The last bounce was capped at the level of 1.3183 and since then the market has made a new local low at the level of 1.3130. The next key technical support is seen at the level of 1.3121. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the next support seen at the level of 1.3059. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3726

WR2 - 1.3600

WR1 - 1.3421

Weekly Pivot - 1.3292

WS1 - 1.3102

WS2 - 1.2995

WS3 - 1.2802

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, the recent rally form the multi-year lows seen at the level of 1.1404 has been successful and the trend might be reversing. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 8, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair had dropped below the level of 1.1822, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement on the weekly time frame chart. This price action might indicate a deeper corrective cycle to come soon as the up trend looks exhausted for now. Any violation of the level of 1.1696 will be the firs indication of a correction. For now however, the key technical support is seen at the level of 1.1790 and the nearest technical resistance is located at 1.1865. Please notice the negative and weak sentiment based on RSI support the immediate bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2178

WR2 - 1.2088

WR1 - 1.1949

Weekly Pivot - 1.1865

WS1 - 1.1723

WS2 - 1.1635

WS3 - 1.1494

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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USD/JPY Weak statistics and de-escalation of the Indian-Chinese conflict: the pair "crawls" to the 107th figure

Tuesday's Asian session passed without any problems. The market is experiencing a general recovery of the US currency. After a decline to multi-month lows, the dollar index is gradually regaining lost positions. The indicator returned to the area of the 93rd figure, reflecting the increased interest of traders in the greenback. However, the growth dynamics is smooth and rather inertial – on the eve of Friday's inflation release, market participants do not risk opening large positions on the dollar, thereby causing a flat for almost all dollar pairs.

The Japanese currency today, in turn, actually ignored the national macroeconomic reports. The reaction was minimal although the published statistics are not secondary. All this once again suggests that the USD/JPY pair is focused primarily on the behavior of the US currency and on the external fundamental background. The yen is interested in its own statistics in the third place.

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Still, for the record, it should be noted that today, the final estimate of Japan's GDP growth for the second quarter was published and this estimate was revised up. The indicator remained in the negative territory but according to the final reports, the Japanese economy slowed by 7.6% rather than 8.1% at the height of the macroeconomic crisis. This is little consolation for USD/JPY pair but the fact remains. The level of household spending was disappointing. This indicator, which is an important indicator of consumer activity, fell to -7.6%. The forecast was slightly higher, at -3.2%. This indicator has been in the negative area since October last year-- that is, even before the Covid-19 epidemic-- and has repeatedly caused alarm among members of the Japanese regulator. In this case, we are talking about a serious decline. The indicator has almost returned to its spring values-- when Japan had a lockdown. Most likely, this is due to the fact that at that time, the country, and especially the multi-million-dollar Tokyo, was experiencing the peak of the second wave of the epidemic. Therefore, the level of Japanese spending has significantly decreased.

The GDP deflator also disappointed. This component, which estimates the level of inflation compared to the previous year, when calculating the key indicator, rose to just 1.3%, with the overall growth forecast of 1.5%. Similarly, wages were also disappointed – the growth rate remained in the negative area, reaching the level of -1.4%.

In other words, the Japanese national statistics did not help the yen. First, the statistics published today mostly came out worse than expected and secondly, the USD/JPY pair is now completely "led" by the US currency, which in turn is waiting for the publication of data on the growth of inflation in the US.

The conflict between India and China, which escalated at the end of last week, ended as soon as it began. Let me remind you that at the beginning of June, soldiers from both sides were killed in an armed skirmish on the Indian-Chinese border. This was the first case of military deaths in several decades of border confrontation between the two powers. Both States have nuclear weapons, so all the world's media showed interest in the conflict. The foreign exchange market reacted with a surge of anti-risk sentiment. The fact is that the territorial conflict between India and China over the Ladakh region in the Himalayas has been smoldering since the early 60s. In 1962, the two countries fought a border war for control of the region. In the 1990s, the parties agreed to de-escalate the disputed region. Since 2017, the border conflict between the two nuclear powers has resumed with renewed vigor due to Beijing's intention to pave a new road in Ladakh. In May of this year, a number of units were drawn to the line of control that replaces the border between the two countries. Then, at the beginning of the summer, another skirmish turned into an armed confrontation, as a result of which people were killed. The negotiations continued for several weeks, and ended in peace.

Last Friday, India again claimed it was a "provocation" to the Chinese side; many experts have sounded the alarm but the market did not have time to react to the situation. On Monday it became known that the parties were able to resolve the conflict situation without allowing its development.

Because of all of this, the yen has not received a Trump card in the form of a surge in anti-risk sentiment in the market. So paired with the dollar, it is forced to focus on American events-- including political ones.

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From a technical point of view, the pair returned to the range of 105.90-107.10, within which it has been trading for several months; or, to be more precise, since the beginning of the summer. The temporary decline to the bottom of the 105th figure was due to the sudden resignation of Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, but later it became clear that the main contenders for his post are associates and followers of Abe, so no drastic changes (at least in the context of the economic course) should be expected. Against the background of such prospects, the pair has returned to the framework of the above-mentioned price corridor and is currently heading towards its "ceiling". From the current positions, we can consider longs with the first target at 106.90 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator) and 107.10 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame).

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 8, 2020

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The pair failed to rise to resistance at 141.40. GBP/JPY continued to decline lower and broke below support at 140.09 as expected. The pair entered the correctional phase near 142.72. The ideal target for this decline is seen near 138.30 and once this corrective decline is completed, a new rally is expected towards at least 148.32 and possibly even higher.

Resistance is now seen at 140.09 and at 140.50.

R3: 140.50

R2: 140.09

R1: 139.81

Pivot: 139.60

S1: 139.34

S2: 138.96

S3: 138.30

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a new buying opportunity near 138.30

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 8, 2020

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We continue to look for a break below minor support at 125.26 to confirm that the sideways consolidation is completed and the final leg lower towards 124.41 is unfolding. The ongoing decline from 127.08 is the C/ wave of a wave 2/ correction and once this correction is complete near 124.41 a new impulsive rally should be expected towards at least 129.24 and likely even closer to 135.46 as wave 3/ is expected to extend.

Resistance is currently seen at 125.70 and then at 126.03

R3: 126.14

R2: 126.03

R1: 125.70

Pivot: 125.26

S1: 125.08

S2: 124.84

S3: 124.41

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity near 124.41

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USDX Price Movement On Sept 08, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, the US dollar index is now moving in a downslope Pitchfork Channel with the Stochastic Oscillator that is above the Overbought level and moving bellow the Moving Average as their Dynamic Resistance. The bias for the US dollar index will remain bearish at least to the mid October. Taking into account, the 33 years Seasonal Tendency, USDX is likely to reach the 92.69 level as its first target. This scenario comes true if USDX does not rise and close above the 93.50 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Litecoin Price Movement On Sept 08, 2020.

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Litecoin is now moving to the levels of 48.57-49.06 or at least to the EMA 34 as the Dynamic Resistance before it drops again to test the 45.09 level. It has already been confirmed by the price is fail to touch the lower Pitchfork line (The Hagopian Rules) and make a divergence between the price with the William %R. Please pay attention to the 51.17 level because if this level is broken, Litecoin is likely to continue its upward momentum. The digital currency may also test the 45.09 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 8, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 24 points on Monday amid a thin market, in anticipation of two events: a new stage of talks between the EU and the UK and the European Central Bank meeting, which will be held on Thursday. We do not expect any optimism for both events; London is even preparing a temporary bill that rigidly regulates negotiations, pushing the UK to leave the bloc without a deal. ECB officials are rumored to issue weak forecasts for the economy, of course, without changing the current policy. If the ECB finds no reason for optimism, or even becomes neutral, the euro will continue to weaken under the pressure of the general market.

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The euro's nearest support and target is the MACD line at 1.1740 on the daily chart. Consolidating below it reveals the scenario of a medium-term decline with the target at 1.1315 - to the embedded price channel line of the monthly timeframe.

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The price is slowly decreasing on the four-hour chart, but the convergence with the Marlin oscillator is still in effect, even a double convergence is possible. Moving the price under the signal level of 1.1781 will cancel this reversal-correction. Overcoming the signal level will allow the bears to reach the first target of 1.1740 with more energy.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 8, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is on the MACD line on the daily chart. Setting the price below it can trigger a medium-term decline with a movement of about 4.5-5 figures. A condition that can confirm the medium-term decline is when the price leaves the area below the low of 0.7223. The first target will be the August 3 low at 0.7075. Also, in order for the price to confidently settle under the MACD line (0.7277), the aussie needs the signal line of the Marlin oscillator to fall into the zone of negative values.

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The situation is also neutral on the 4-hour timeframe. The price is consolidating at the 0.7277 level. The Marlin oscillator moves gently, it can lie in the horizon without entering the growing trend zone. We are waiting for the development of events.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 8, 2020

USD/JPY

The dollar index gained 0.28% yesterday, US stock exchanges were closed due to a national holiday, which is why the USD/JPY pair, as a stock market-dependent instrument, settled below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. Yesterday and at the moment, the price is stuck between the balance line at the bottom and the MACD line at the top. This cannot continue for a long time, the price is likely to move in one direction today.

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Since the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone, and investors are optimistic on the Asian stock exchanges, such an exit to the upside is more likely to occur, to the first target 106.57 - towards the embedded price channel line of the higher timeframe. Consolidating above the level opens the second target at 107.00.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price is moving from side to side above the MACD line. The Marlin signal line is also moving sideways, but still in the growing trend zone. We are waiting for the price to leave the area above 106.57 so that the USD/JPY pair can grow in the long term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 8. London is going to abandon part of the agreements with the EU concluded earlier.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -142.9920

The British pound accelerated its fall against the US dollar on Monday, September 7. This happened after it became known about the new position of London and Boris Johnson personally on Brexit. Traders finally paid attention to the futility of negotiations and the lack of desire in London to negotiate. Thus, the pound began to fall after all, which may end in a new downward trend for the pound/dollar pair. So far, both channels of linear regression continue to be directed upwards, thus, we can not make a clear conclusion about the end of the upward trend. However, fixing the pair's quotes below the moving average line is sufficient to identify a change in the downward trend.

Since 2016, we have repeatedly called everything that happens in the UK as "clowning" and "punning". Such a serious process as leaving the EU after a 47-year stay cannot be easy and simple. However, it should not be accompanied by an annual change of power, a complete disagreement of the Parliament with the ruling party and the Prime Minister, and an inappropriately persistent desire of the head of state to break all ties with the European Union at all costs and start building his foreign policy from a "clean slate". For about 3 years, we wrote that the main problem with the entire Brexit process is that it was ambiguous from the very beginning. The results of the 2016 referendum showed that the majority of Britons want to leave the EU. However, this option was not supported by the majority of Scots, the majority of Welsh, and the majority of Northern Irishmen. 52% is not the majority of such an important and serious issue. 75% is the majority, and 52% is half. Thus, the second half of the UK population did not want to leave the European Union from the very beginning. Accordingly, almost half of the UK population was not satisfied with the results of the referendum and everything that has happened in the last four years. However, the charismatic Johnson came to power, who did nothing for the country for a whole year of his rule. It is difficult to say how the British themselves feel about Johnson, however, we do not see why we can call him a "strong Prime Minister". He "overshadowed" the "coronavirus" epidemic, the British economy has lost the most percent of all EU countries, there are no free trade agreements with the EU and the United States. The negotiations have failed, and London's desire to bluff in negotiations with Brussels would have been seen through by a first-grader. The most important thing that many forget is that Johnson wanted to leave the EU from the very beginning without any agreements, under the scenario of a "hard" Brexit. It is this option that he is implementing under the guise of "negotiations with the EU, in which it is simply not possible to come to a common opinion". Moreover, Johnson is not interested in the fact that both sides must concede in negotiations. The fact that the "hard" Brexit will be paid not by him, but by ordinary Britons, is also not very interesting to the Prime Minister. Now the media also gets information that London may refuse to fulfill part of the agreements concluded with the EU in the fall of 2019. At the same time, the media reports that the UK government is going to cancel the "key agreements" concerning Northern Ireland. It is not yet known how true this information is, thus, we need to wait for an official statement from Boris Johnson or someone from the British government. However, "there is no smoke without fire". Perhaps this information was intentionally released to intimidate Brussels. Although what is the point of Britain striking a blow to its reputation? After all, it will then have to conclude new trade deals. Who, after such a unilateral termination of the deal with the EU, will treat Britain "like a gentleman"?

In addition to unclear messages about the possible cancellation of some parts of the agreement with the EU, Boris Johnson continues to follow in the footsteps of his "big brother" Donald Trump and openly amuse his statements. It's a good thing Johnson doesn't speak as often as Trump, otherwise we'd have two major newsmakers. The British Prime Minister said that the parties (Brussels and London) must agree on an agreement defining the post-Brexit relationship by October 15. Earlier, Johnson had already given two or three deadlines, and, if you remember, was going to personally visit Brussels to hold talks with top officials of the European Union. Naturally, Johnson did not go to any Brussels, and he had already forgotten about the previous deadlines. Moreover, the negotiations have been in one place for a long time, and according to Michel Barnier, they are even moving in the opposite direction. It is also very symbolic that on the very day when it became known about the new deadline from Johnson, the media also got information about the possible refusal of London to fulfill some of the agreements previously negotiated with the EU. It all sounds like a pun, and hardly anyone else seriously believes that London wants to negotiate and will try to reach an agreement in the remaining six weeks. "We will have the freedom to make trade deals with all countries of the world and as a result, we will prosper," Boris Johnson said. However, Johnson did not say when this "period of prosperity" will begin. Maybe when all these deals will be concluded. However, the promise of a "period of prosperity" is very similar to Trump's formulation of a "Golden age" if he is re-elected. "If we can't reach an agreement by then, I don't think there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should accept this and move on," the British Prime Minister commented on the current "progress" in the negotiations.

At the same time, European negotiator Michel Barnier asked his British counterpart David Frost to explain the information that London may refuse to comply with previously reached agreements. He said that "everything that was signed must be respected" and insisted on the full implementation of all agreements on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, from customs checks on which, according to rumors, London plans to abandon. In general, in the coming days, we can count on news from the UK, and the pound can now respond to each of them with a new fall.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 127 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, September 8, therefore, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3039 and 1.3293. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a round of upward correction within a new downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3123

S2 – 1.3062

S3 – 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3184

R2 – 1.3245

R3 – 1.3293

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in short positions with the goals of 1.3123 and 1.3062 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward, which will indicate a round of correction. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with the first targets of 1.3306 and 1.3367 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 8. COT report. London does not want a deal with the EU. Pound began

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD currency pair, in contrast to EUR/USD, started to move down again on September 7, and so it reached the first support level of 1.3139 and the support area of 1.3156-1.3184. Thus, despite the day's empty calendar of macroeconomic events, market participants found a reason for selling the British currency on Monday. Now sellers need to make a successful attempt to overcome the 1.3139 level, and it may continue to move down with renewed vigor. In addition to the fact that the downward movement is now visible with the naked eye, we have also formed a new downward channel, which supports the bearish traders. Setting the price above this channel will make it possible to conclude that the US dollar has temporarily stopped growing. However, you should only consider trading bearish while the pair's quotes are still within this channel

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels continue to be directed downward on the 15 minute timeframe, thus, we can conclude that the downtrend is weak, but it still persists. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound turned out to be even more unexpected than the one for the euro. If non-commercial traders were already shorting the euro, the same category of traders continued to buy the pound sterling. In total, professional traders opened 5,500 new Buy-contracts and 3,000 new Sell-contracts during the reporting week (August 26-September 1), and so their net position even increased by 2,500, according to a new COT report. In principle, the data perfectly describes what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the British currency continued to grow during all five trading days included in the report. The pound has been depreciating from September 1 to the present day, but there is no hint that professional traders have stopped looking towards the pound (unlike the euro) in the latest COT report. Therefore, we can not find a correlation between the two main competitors of the US dollar at this time, based on the COT reports, although both major currency pairs have been moving almost identical lately.

The fundamental background on Monday, September 7, mainly came down to Brexit-related topics. First, traders received information regarding a new deadline for talks "by Boris Johnson", and then - unconfirmed information that London may refuse to fulfill some agreements with the European Union regarding Brexit, concluded last year. In addition, a new round of talks between the groups of Michel Barnier and David Frost starts on Tuesday, September 8, which means that we will be able to receive new information about the lack of progress, moving backward, not forward and other optimistic theses by today or tomorrow. We have finally received very interesting news from the UK, but, unfortunately, not everything was positive for the pound. In recent weeks, we have regularly reminded traders that there is no particular reason to strengthen the pound at this time, as there are still a huge number of geopolitical and economic problems in the UK. It seems that market participants have finally remembered them, which immediately translates into the pound's fall. We can expect the pound to fall If we do not receive disappointing news from overseas in the near future.

We have two trading ideas for September 8:

1) Buyers remain in the shadows. Thus, it is recommended to consider buying the pound when the price settles above the descending channel with initial targets on the Senkou Span B (1.3266) and Kijun-sen (1.3310) lines. Take Profit in this case will be from 30 to 70 points.

2) Bears continue to slowly pull down the pair, therefore, short positions remain relevant while aiming for the support area of 1.3004-1.3024, but you are advised to resume trading down if the price manages to overcome the support level of 1.3139, which has already been reached yesterday. Take Profit in this case will be about 100 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 8. COT report. Flat. Market participants await ECB meeting results

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair was nearly moving from side to side on the hourly timeframe on September 7. We even defined the narrow side channel in articles for beginners, only 75 points wide. Trading took place in this channel throughout Monday. In addition, the price is still in a wider side channel, between the levels of 1.17 and 1.19. It has been trading in this range for over a month. Thus, the upward trend is maintained, since the price does not go far from its two-year highs and, accordingly, the bulls can become active at any moment and start attacking the US dollar again. Also, formally, there is not one but two flats that are now taking place, although the "higher flat" is more clearly visible on timeframes above 1H. The pair is located below the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines, which makes it possible to trade down. But now the pair has problems with overcoming the 1.1780 level.

EUR/USD 15M

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According to the 15 minute timeframe, both linear regression channels show that the pair is moving within the side channel even in the shortest term. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which, let me remind you, comes out with a three-day delay and so it only covers the dates from August 26 to September 1, rather unexpectedly showed a decrease in the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders. Let me remind you that non-commercial traders are the most important category of traders who enter the foreign exchange market in order to make a profit. Non-commercial traders reduced Buy positions and opened Sell-contracts during the reporting week. The number of purchases decreased by almost 11,000, while the number of sales increased by 3,000. Thus, the net position immediately decreased by 14,000. We would like to take note that the euro did not really get cheaper during the reporting week, which is covered by the latest COT report. The euro strengthened during all five trading days, and then it only began to fall on September 1, which we can now describe as being provoked by professional traders and their sell positions. The euro fell after September 1, so the new COT report may signal an even greater decline in net positions. And in this case, it will confirm that the mood of non-commercial traders is changing to a downward one.

Both America and the European Union did not release any significant macroeconomic report on Monday, September 7. In addition, there was no fundamentally important news from the EU. The European Central Bank will hold its meeting this week, during which the market could receive some really important information. Especially in light of the ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane's recent statements that the current euro exchange rate has an adverse effect on the EU economy. On Tuesday, we can expect the EU to release the GDP for the second quarter in the second estimate. It will be difficult for the euro currency to count on growth if the value of the first estimate is not revised for the better. German industrial production was also released yesterday, showing a 10% year-on-year decline in July, although traders were expecting a 12.1% gain. In monthly terms, the growth was only 1.2% instead of the forecasted +4.8%.

We have two trading ideas for September 8:

1) Bulls continue to keep their finger on the pulse of the market and are ready to return to the market at any time and open new buy positions. At least the current drop in quotes is very weak, and the price has not yet managed to even approach the important level of 1.1700, which we consider as the lower border of the side channel. Small volumes can be bought in the case the quote settles above the Kijun-sen line (1.1896) with the target of 1.1972. Take Profit in this case will be about 45 points.

2) Bears got the opportunity to start forming a new downward trend, as they managed to gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line (1.1882), but so far they clearly do not want to use it to the fullest. Thus, for now we can recommend selling the pair with the target of the support level of 1.1742. In this case, the potential Take Profit is 60 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options for the commodity currencies AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD (H4) on September

Minute operational scale (H4)

What will happen next with commodity currencies after the local victory of the US dollar? Overview of AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD (H4) on September 8, 2020.

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD/USD from September 8, 2020 will continue depending on the development and direction of the breakdown of the channel boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.7240 - 0.7275 - 0.7310) of the Minuette operational scale fork - see the details on the animated chart.

A breakdown of the resistance level of 0.7310 at the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it relevant to develop an upward movement of AUD/USD towards the goals:

  • ultimate Shiff Line Minuette (0.7335);
  • channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (0.7400 - 0.7420 - 0.7440).

In case of breaking the lower border ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - support level of 0.7240 - the downward movement of the Australian dollar will continue to the borders of the equilibrium zone (0.7195 - 0.7125 - 0.7055) of the Minute operational scale fork.

AUD/USD movement options from September 8, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

The development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD/CAD since September 8, 2020 will arise depending on the practice and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.3125 - 1.3100 - 1.3070) of the Minuette operational scale fork - we look at the markup movements within this zone on the animated chart.

In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.3070 at the lower border of ISL38.2 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the downward movement of the Canadian dollar may continue to the targets:

  • final Shiff Line Minuette (1.3045);
  • channel 1/2 Median Line (1.2993 - 1.2975 - 1.2955) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

If the resistance level of 1.3125 breaks at the upper limit of ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the Canadian dollar movement can be continued to the borders of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3145 - 1.3195 - 1.3250) of the Minute operational scale fork.

We look at the USD/CAD movement options from September 8, 2020 on the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

The movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD/USD from September 8, 2020 will develop depending on the development and direction of the range of boundaries of the channel 1/2 Median Line (0.6648 - 0.6680 - 0.6705) of the Minuette operational scale fork - we look at the animated chart for the movement markings within this channel.

A breakout of the resistance level of 0.6705 at the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette, followed by a breakout of the median Line Minute (0.6720) - a variant of continuing the upward movement of NZD/USD to the targets:

  • upper limit of ISL61.8 (0.6760) of the equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork;
  • initial SSL line (0.6772) of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • local maximum 0.6786;
  • control line UTL Minuette (0.6810);
  • with the prospect of reaching the end line FSL Minute (0.6885).

A breakout of the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette - support level of 0.6648 - option of the movement NZD/USD to the equilibrium zone (0.6648 - 0.6605 - 0.6565) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup of the NZD/USD movement options from September 8, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and it is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 8. The "coronavirus" epidemic is receding in the US.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -75.6173

The EUR/USD pair spent the first trading day of the week in absolutely calm trading with minimal downward bias. The technical picture for the euro/dollar pair has not changed for several weeks. In general, the pair's quotes spent all this time between the levels of $ 1.17 and $ 1.19. There were two attempts to leave this channel and both failed. Thus, the situation remains as follows: the bulls continue to hold the market in their hands, however, they do not have any new reasons for making purchases of the euro currency; bears have the opportunity to sell the pair (that is, buy the dollar), however, there are few reasons for this. It turns out that both bulls and bears are simply waiting for a change in the general fundamental background, which remains quite unsightly for the US currency.

As a whole, everything that is happening now in the United States can be called in one word - "mess". Intentionally, we do not want to touch on the topic of mass riots in Belarus, as they have nothing to do with the euro/dollar pair. Nevertheless, Belarus could have been expected to be in such a mess. The fact that Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for three decades now only shows that the word "elections'' in this country has nothing to do with the word "democracy". In the third decade of Lukashenka's rule, people's nerves broke down, and they have been protesting for a month. However, in the United States, there has not been such a mess as this for a long time. Let's start with the most painful topic of "coronavirus". There is undoubtedly positive news here for Americans, Donald Trump, and the US dollar. The number of daily registered cases of the disease continues to decline and on September 6, it was already 32,000. This is still a lot, however, the values were fixed twice as high a month ago. Thus, it is safe to say that the epidemic has begun to recede, and now the situation in the country will become a little easier. This also applies to the workload of hospitals and pressure on the White House, and economic stress caused by the crisis. Nevertheless, many processes in the United States now continue to pass through the prism of future presidential elections. For example, Donald Trump continues to bet on the invention of a vaccine against "coronavirus" until November 3 and has even managed to appoint the "pre-election vaccination" on November 1. This term means that if the vaccine is invented before the end of October, the most vulnerable segments of the population (people over 65 years of age, health workers) will be vaccinated on November 1. However, many Americans fear that the population will be vaccinated with a drug that has not passed all the necessary clinical trials. And perhaps everyone knows that it can take from a year to several years to create a vaccine with all the necessary tests, since Anthony Fauci, other epidemiologists, and doctors have repeatedly voiced similar figures and forecasts. Thus, the situation in the States with the "coronavirus" is slightly improving, however, no one knows what will be the consequences of the invention of such a "pre-election vaccine"...

From other news, we can only state that Republicans and Democrats can not agree on a new package of financial assistance to the American economy, the topic of the US-China trade standoff is put on pause, and the situation with rallies and protests across America caused by racial scandals is softening a little. However, all this does not fundamentally change the fundamental background in favor of the US dollar. If America were currently in intensive care, its condition would be described as "stable severe". Yes, maybe it's not that bad. In the same Belarus, which does not have such economic power, everything is much worse now. However, we believe that it makes no sense to compare Belarus and the United States. It makes sense to compare the US with the US in the past.

Most importantly, most experts, analytical agencies, and publications believe that the key to solving all the problems will be the elections on November 3. The future of the country and the way it goes further will depend on the results of the elections. Naturally, two months before "Hour X", the fierce debate between Trump and Biden, as well as between their entourage, continues. Trump continues to use the tactics of pressure on the opponent and tries to play the few remaining trumps on his hands. For example, the US President has been challenging Joe Biden to debate for several months in a row. Trump is confident that he will win a crushing victory, and even people who are skeptical of Trump's personality are sure of this. Everyone knows that Trump can speak in front of the public, and does not go for a word in his pocket. The Democrats, who have so far refused to hold debates, also know this. For example, the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi says that Trump will behave obscenely at the debate, "as in principle and every day", and we personally also have little doubt about this. Trump, who only called Nancy Pelosi "crazy" several times, is unlikely to behave with restraint and correctly concerning Biden. Especially understanding and realizing that the Democrat is ahead of him in political ratings and did not make as many mistakes as he did.

However, there is still no escape from the pre-election debates. They will be held in three stages between September 29 and October 22. In line with this, Biden will have a hard time. This is noted by all experts-political scientists. In their opinion, Biden does not have oratorical skills, often admits reservations, and does not have charisma. Thus, Trump is almost guaranteed to win the debate. But will the results of the debate affect political ratings? Most likely, yes. The ability to clearly express their position is what can convince some Americans to vote for the amorphous Biden, who has long been nicknamed "Sleepy Joe". Thus, Trump has a real opportunity to reduce the gap from his competitor by a few more percent. As a result, both candidates may approach the elections with almost equal political ratings. In general, in any case, despite all the opinion polls and social studies that predict a victory for Biden, everything will be decided on November 3. Or maybe for the next few weeks.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 8 is 79 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1737 and 1.1895. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will signal a possible new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

R3 – 1.2085

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair may continue its downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to trade lower with the goals of 1.1737 and 1.1750 and hold short positions until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. If the price is fixed above the moving average, it is recommended to trade for an increase with the goals of 1.1895 and 1.1963.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com