Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for October 16, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite impulsive with recent bullish gains, which led the price to trade inside the resistance area of 1.3200-1.3300 currently. GBP has been picked up steam amid on the back of positive economic reports, supporting the bullish gains in the process. On the other hand, USD is still struggling amid the fundamentals.

After an optimistic statement from Prime Minister Theresa May about upcoming developments in the UK economy, GBP managed to gain ground against USD in a significant way. Moreover, today the UK Average Earning Index report was published with an increase to 2.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.6% while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.0%.

On the other hand, after downbeat CPI and Retail Sales reports from the US, USD is struggling to gain momentum over GBP. Despite the better-than-expected economic data today, USD failed to counter GBP gains that is expected to lead to certain indecision and volatility in the coming days. Today US Industrial Production report was published better than expected at 0.3%, though decreasing slightly from the previous value of 0.4% but performing better than the expectation of 0.2%, and JOLTS Job Opening also increased to 7.14M from the previous figure of 7.08M which was expected to decrease to 6.90M. Additionally, US NAHB Housing Market Index report was published with an increase to 68 as expected from the previous figure of 67 and Capital Utilization Rate was unchanged at 78.1% which was expected to increase marginally to 78.2%.

Meanwhile, positive economic reports from the UK helped the currency to gain certain momentum over USD for a while. On the other hand, positive economic US reports suggest a counter move. Ahead of US economic reports on Housing Starts and FOMC Meeting minutes, certain volatility and gains on the USD side may observed if readings remains positive consistently.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently holding at the edge of resistance area 1.32 after recovering from a Bearish Gap at the start of the week. Though the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as support, as the price remains below 1.3300 area, certain bearish pressure may occur with a target towards 1.3050 and later towards 1.2850 in the future. Otherwise, a break above 1.3300 will lead to further bullish gains.

SUPPORT: 1.2850, 1.3050

RESISTANCE: 1.3200, 1.3300

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Trading Plan for 10/16/2018

The dollar should say a big thank you to the British House of Commons, in which yesterday, Theresa May was ridiculed, who gave a report on the negotiations with the European Union. According to her, the parties have already reached agreement on the main issues and only minor details are left to be resolved. This is what caused the laughter of parliamentarians, since one of these minor issues is the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. If a free trade zone remains between them, the UK is deprived of the opportunity to independently conclude trade agreements with third countries, in violation of the rules and regulations of the European Union. That is the main purpose of Brexit, independence in the signing of trade agreements, in fact, remains unrealizable.

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Only this allowed the dollar not to collapse, since the American statistics was simply terrifying. Not only that commercial inventory increased by another 0.5%, so they have been growing for ten months in a row. Also, the growth rate of retail sales fell sharply from 6.5% to 4.7%. And all this against the background of a slowdown in inflation, which causes more and more concerns about the Fed's policy. The likelihood of revising the rate of increase in the refinancing rate is becoming more and more real.

Today, we should pay serious attention to the data on the labor market in the UK, where there is only one point that can be called positive, the unemployment rate itself. It must remain unchanged. But the number of applications for unemployment benefits may increase from 8.7 thousand to 10.0 thousand. Moreover, the growth rate of average wages without taking into account bonuses should slow down from 2.9% to 2.8%, and taking into account bonuses from 2.6% to 2.4%. So, the picture is pretty sad. In turn, in the United States, there are data on industrial production, the growth rate of which, according to the latest forecasts, may still increase from 4.9% to 5.0%. Also, capacity utilization may increase from 78.1% to 78.2%. However, the number of open vacancies has all chances to be reduced from 6,939 thousand to 6,900 thousand. But the growth of industry will raise the mood of investors.

The euro / dollar currency pair, moving closer to a maximum on Friday of 1.1609, felt a periodic resistance over itself, rolling back the quote. It is likely to assume the bumpkin within 1.1550 / 1.1590, being in the phase of rollback.

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The currency pair pound / dollar for yesterday closed the gap, where then went into a slight stagnation. It is likely to assume the restoration of short positions, practicing a gap in the downward direction of 1.3100.

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The dollar has no global reasons for declining

On the stock market in the United States, they continue to wonder what is happening. A correction or the beginning of a full-scale decline, symbolizing the change in the long-term bull trend, to a bearish one. So far, investors do not seem to have a clear understanding of this process, which leads to the continuation of the still gradual decline in major stock indexes.

In our opinion, three important factors will continue to adversely affect the local stock market. This is a growing trade war, turning into a geopolitical and geostrategic confrontation between Washington and Beijing, which already raises concerns among investors that the States will not avoid a slowdown in economic growth. The second reason is the Fed's persistent decision to continue the cycle of raising interest rates, which is accompanied by an increase in the volume of the regulator's balance to be reduced. And the third cause for concern is the rise in yields on US government Treasury bonds.

As for the first factor, a lot has been written and said about it, so we will not comment on it. But the Fed's persistent desire to raise rates received a rationale from the mouth of its recent leader, J. Yellen, who said on Monday that she's "concerned about the possible overheating of the economy" and that "GDP growth of 3.0%, although excellent, is unlikely to be sustainable". It seems that the current head of the American Central Bank, J. Powell, understands this very well and therefore follows by tightening the cost of borrowing and withdrawing liquidity from the financial system so that the economy does not fall into a new recession, but only experienced a soft landing against the backdrop of wave of three programs of quantitative easing (QE).

As for the dynamics of the debt market, it directly depends on the Fed's actions, so the process of raising rates will help increase the yield of treasuries, and they, in turn, will support the dollar.

In our opinion, despite the fact that many in the market believe that the dollar has fewer and fewer prospects for continued growth against major currencies and that it may even turn down against them, we are of the opinion that all the above factors affecting the market US stocks will, at best, support the rate of the American currency, and at worst, not allow it to decline markedly.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair NZD / USD is trading at 0.6590. Its growth was due to the local weakness of the dollar. If negative sentiment again prevails in the market, the pair may turn down and fall to 0.6495.

The USD / JPY currency pair is trading below the level of 112.20 and above the support line of the short-term uptrend. If the pair does not grow above the level of 112.20 and does not consolidate, then on the wave of negative investor attitude towards risk, it may turn down and rush to 111.65.0, and then to 111.30.

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Fractal analysis of Gold, Silver, and Oil on October 16

Analytical review of Gold, Silver, and oil. According to Silver, we expect further development of the upward trend from October 11 after the breakdown of 14.73. According to Gold, we follow the development of the rising structure of September 28. For oil, we mainly expect movement in correction from the downward structure on October 3.

Forecast for October 16:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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According to Silver, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 15.13, 14.98, 14.88, 14.73, 14.58, 14.49, 14.43 and 14.34. Here, we are following the ascending structure of October 11. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 14.73. In this case, the target is 14.88 and the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement towards 14.98, consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 15.13, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.We expect a departure in the correction after the breakdown of 14.58. In this case, the target is 14.49 and the range of 14.49 - 14.43 is the key support for the top. Its price will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the target is 14.34.The main trend is the upward structure of October 11.Trading recommendations:Buy: 14.74 Take profit: 14.87Buy: 14.89 Take profit: 14.97Sell: 14.58 Take profit: 14.50Sell: 14.42 Take profit: 14.36

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According to Gold, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 1245.82, 1235.96, 1228.48, 1224.37, 1213.81, 1208.96 and 1201.07. Here, we are following the development of the ascending cycle of September 28. The movement upwards is expected after the price passes the range of 1224.37 - 1228.48. In this case, the target is 1235.96, consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1245.82, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1213.81 - 1208.96 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1201.07.The main trend is the upward cycle of September 28.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1228.50 Take profit: 1235.00Buy: 1237.00 Take profit: 1245.00Sell: 1213.50 Take profit: 1209.50Sell: 1208.00 Take profit: 1202.00

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According to oil, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 74.06, 73.02, 72.48, 70.86, 70.10, 69.52 and 68.22. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 3. At the moment, the price is in the correction area. The downward movement is possible after a breakdown of 70.86. Here, the target is 70.10 and in the range of 70.10 - 69.52 is the consolidation and hence the likelihood of movement upwards is high. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 68.22, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 72.48 - 73.02 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the target is 74.06.The main trend is the downward structure of October 3, the stage of correction.The tool serves to determine the key trend. Its confirmation or cancellation by GOLD. Often has the opposite correlation with GOLD.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for October 16

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we are following the ascending structure of October 9, a pronounced movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1628. For the pound / dollar currency pair, we expect a resumption of the uptrend after the breakdown of 1.3211. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the increased potential for a downward movement to the level of 0.9757. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the downward cycle of October 3 and the next downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 111.48. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we are following a downward trend and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we are expected to move downwards after the breakdown of 146.60.

Forecast for October 16:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1699, 1.1658, 1.1628, 1.1612, 1.1585, 1.1550, 1.1518 and 1.1478. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 9. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1585. In this case, the goal is 1.1612, and the consolidation is in the range of 1.1612 - 1.1628. The passage of the level of 1.1628 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1658. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1699, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1550 - 1.1518, hence we expect a key upward reversal. The breakdown of the level 1.1518 will have to develop the downward structure. In this case, the goal is 1.1478.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1585 Take profit: 1.1610

Buy 1.1629 Take profit: 1.1656

Sell: 1.1548 Take profit: 1.1525

Sell: 1.1516 Take profit: 1.1480

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.3350, 1.3292, 1.3263, 1.3211, 1.3133, 1.3081 and 1.3023. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of October 4. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3211. In this case, the target is 1.3263 and in the range of 1.3263 - 1.3292 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3350, upon reaching this level we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3133 - 1.3081 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of the downward movement. Here, the target is 1.3023.

The main trend is the upward cycle of October 4, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3211 Take profit: 1.3260

Buy: 1.3294 Take profit: 1.3350

Sell: 1.3080 Take profit: 1.3030

Sell: 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3084

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9918, 0.9896, 0.9880, 0.9835, 0.9820, 0.9782 and 0.9757. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 9. A downward movement is expected after the price passes the range of 0.9835 - 0.9820. In this case, the target is 0.9782. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.9757, after reaching which we expect consolidation and rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9880 - 0.9896 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9918, this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to form an upward structure. Here, the target is 0.9953.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9880 Take profit: 0.9894

Buy: 0.9898 Take profit: 0.9916

Sell: 0.9820 Take profit: 0.9785

Sell: 0.9780 Take profit: 0.9763

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.31, 112.72, 112.38, 111.77, 111.48, 111.02 and 110.38. Here, we are following the downward cycle of October 3rd. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 111.77 - 111.48. The breakdown of the level of 111.48 will lead to the movement to 111.02, near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 110.38, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 112.38 - 112.72 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 113.31 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.38 Take profit: 112.70

Buy: 112.75 Take profit: 113.30

Sell: 111.75 Take profit: 111.50

Sell: 111.46 Take profit: 111.04

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.3141, 1.3106, 1.3068, 1.3034, 1.2964 and 1.2926. Here, we are following the ascending structure of October 1. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3034 - 1.3068 and we expect further development of the main trend after the breakdown of 1.3068. In this case, the goal is 1.3106, consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 1.3141, upon reaching which we expect consolidation and rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2964 - 1.2926, to the level of 1.2926, we expect the formation of a pronounced structure of the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3066

Buy: 1.3070 Take profit: 1.3104

Sell: 1.2964 Take profit: 1.2930

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Australian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7211, 0.7188, 0.7156, 0.7130, 0.7107, 0.7092, 0.7073. Here, the price forms the ascending structure of October 10. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7130. In this case, the target is 0.7156, consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.7158 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7188. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7211, after reaching which we expect consolidation.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7107 - 0.7092 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.7073 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have the development of the downward structure. In this case, the potential goal is 0.7040.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure from October 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7132 Take profit: 0.7152

Buy: 0.7158 Take profit: 0.7185

Sell: 0.7107 Take profit: 0.7194

Sell: 0.7190 Take profit: 0.7073

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 130.94, 130.34, 129.97, 129.43, 129.07 and 128.35. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of September 25. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 129.43 - 129.07, hence the probability of an upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 129.07 will allow us to count on the movement towards a potential target of 128.35, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 129.97 - 130.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 130.94 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 25, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.98 Take profit: 130.32

Buy: 130.37 Take profit: 130.90

Sell: 129.41 Take profit: 129.10

Sell: 129.03 Take profit: 128.40

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.24, 147.69, 147.33, 146.66, 145.94, 145.41 and 144.64. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 8. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 146.66. In this case, the target is 145.94 and in the range of 145.94 - 145.41 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 144.64, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 147.33 - 147.69 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 148.24 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have an upward trend. Here, the potential target is 149.50.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 147.33 Take profit: 147.65

Buy: 147.75 Take profit: 148.20

Sell: 146.60 Take profit: 146.00

Sell: 145.90 Take profit: 145.44

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 16, 2018

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On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

Recently, the price level of 1.2900-1.2940 (the backside of the broken uptrend) demonstrated significant bullish recovery which led to the recent bullish breakout of the depicted H4 channel.

Evident Bullish momentum was demonstrated above 1.3010 and recently above 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) which led to the recent bullish movement towards 1.3200.

As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3200 (SELL-ZONE) is needed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum initially towards 1.3280.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.3200 hinders the bullish breakout scenario allowing a further decline towards 1.3090 (61.8% Fibo level) and probably 1.3010 (50% Fibo level).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 16, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. A quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, evident bearish momentum was being demonstrated on the daily chart. On October 10, a recent decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.

As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should keep trading below the price level of 1.1520.

However, last week, evident signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.1430 (Note the full-bullish candlestick of Thursday). This brings the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1520.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair resumes its sideway consolidations inside the depicted consolidation range (1.1520-1.1750) until a bearish breakout occurs later.

The nearest supply level to be visited is located around 1.1670 (a potential bullish target).

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Who will win and who will lose in the oil conflict?

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In connection with the rise in oil prices observed during the current year, experts seek to assess the chances of a number of states claiming leadership in this field. They are trying to predict for which countries this recovery will be favorable, and for which countries, economically unprofitable, capable of causing damage.

According to experts, a sharp change in energy prices always has an impact on the economies of most countries. The economy of any state is unique in its own way, so the dynamics of prices for black gold affect it differently. For example, such an oil producer and exporter of raw materials like Russia, high prices help increase foreign exchange earnings in the treasury, create a "safety cushion".

However, many countries importing black gold do not get any benefit from this. An example of this is Turkey, which has to supply almost all of its oil needs. The situation in the country was negatively affected by the collapse of the national currency and inflation at about 25%.

According to the calculations of specialists, developing economies are considered to be the most sensitive to rising energy prices. For example, in South Africa, where the cost of gasoline is tied to the Brent oil quotes, a sharp rise in prices, combined with a weakening national currency, can accelerate inflation to a record level of 6%. The Brazilian national currency, the real, has fallen considerably against the background of a corruption scandal, although it usually rises in price following the rise in oil prices.

As a result, the largest oil producers, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, benefit from the rise in oil prices. The kingdom is considered a kind of "safe haven", especially against the background of sales in emerging markets. According to experts, at present, the correlation of shares with Brent oil has increased to a maximum in 15 months.

At the moment, a barrel of Brent oil mixture is trading below $ 88. Note that this figure is necessary for the largest Arab economy for a balanced budget for the current year. In this regard, the Saudi authorities are planning to invest in programs that guarantee the reduction of the country's economy from black gold.

Investors are counting on price stabilization in the global black gold market. Many of them took a wait-and-see attitude, especially after active sales in stock markets.

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Weekly review of the foreign exchange market for October 15, 2018

We had a very busy week, but the result of all the fuss and throwing from side to side was a trampling on the spot. In fact, the foreign exchange market has not moved from the positions that were reached at the end of the previous week. Although not only boring macroeconomic statistics disturbed market participants, politicians also tried to entertain the public as much as they could. But their efforts were not coordinated, and each constantly led in the opposite direction from each other. And, of course, it is especially worth noting the panic on the stock exchanges, about which they only talked, although the foreign exchange market did not notice it at all, which pushes on rather seditious thoughts. But since this did not affect the foreign exchange market at all, then we will not focus on this issue. It is only worth noting that for one of his tweets, Donald Trump was appointed guilty of the collapse of stock market indices, and the world media of mass agitation and disinformation was not disturbed by the fact that it was written as a reaction to the fall in stocks. Nevertheless, for the foreign exchange market, the statement by the occupant of Trump was an unpleasant bell, as it contained criticism of the Federal Reserve System. Many regarded this as an attempt to influence the policy of the Federal Commission on open market operations, which is unacceptable.

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Things were much more fun in Europe, where so exciting dramas like the Brexit and the battles over the financial problems of Italy continue to unfold. Towards the middle of the week, a rumor spread that the European Union and the United Kingdom could sign the final version of the divorce agreement already on Monday, that is, on October 15. True, Theresa May immediately rushed to assure everyone that Britain would not make any concessions. Of course, we are talking not only about the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, but primarily about trade issues. The stumbling block is such uninteresting issues as customs duties and trade quotas. Well, in Europe, they will not get enough of it because of the Italian question, which the hotheads have already managed to designate as the main threat to the existence of a single European currency. In Italy, they are forced almost every day to hold regular symposia on the state budget deficit, during which they even come up with a terrible idea that if the European Central Bank finishes the quantitative easing program, then the descendants of the ancient Romans will immediately become bankrupt. Such thoughts, as well as the unwillingness of the Italian parliamentarians to agree among themselves, causes a storm of anger from Brussels.

But, as they say, politics is only a consequence of real economic processes, although politicians are able to have a short-term impact on financial markets. And with all confidence, we can say that European politicians have made titanic efforts so that the dollar does not collapse. More precisely, by their actions, they tried to prevent the strengthening of a single European currency or a pound. Since the main event of the week was the publication of data on inflation in the United States, which not only disappointed but also frightened market participants. The fact is that inflation slowed down from 2.7% to 2.3%, which turned out to be even worse than forecast. It's funny that such a turn surprised many, although literally the day before, there were data on inventories at wholesale warehouses, which grew by 1.0%, and the most interesting thing is that they have been growing for ten months in a row. Growth stocks always foreshadow either a fall in industrial production or a sharp decline in inflation. Sometimes, this can even lead to a temporary price reduction. So, the fact of a strong slowdown in inflation should not have come as a surprise. And judging by the behavior of market participants, this was exactly what they were preparing for, since the dollar was falling before the release of inflation data. But anyway, the decline in inflation has already become the reason for the talk that the Federal Reserve will reconsider its plans for the rate of increase in the refinancing rate.

If we talk about Europe, the growth rate of industrial production accelerated from 0.3% to 0.9%. To be honest, the results are even better, as previous data were revised, which showed a decline in industrial production by 0.1%. And in the UK, the industry accelerated its growth rate from 1.0% to 1.3%. So, in theory, the dollar really had only to go down. But the media agitation and misinformation diligently avoided the topic of publishing the text of the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting, as they were very passionate about painting apocalyptic pictures in connection with the next collapse of stock market indices. And the content of the text of the protocol was extremely interesting. Now, it is not customary to talk about the fate of the quantitative easing program, since the ECB promised that in December, it would curtail its operation. However, even Mario Draghi recently said that if the conditions are favorable, then the program will of course collapse. That's just not clear what kind of conditions. And in the text of the minutes of the meeting of the ECB, there is no specifics on this issue. Of course, there is a statement that the program will be terminated by the end of December, but only if the macroeconomic situation is conducive. Considering that the language is extremely vague, we can assume that the ECB is once again planning to extend the program of quantitative easing, which, of course, has a negative effect on the single European currency.

The current week promises to be extremely saturated not only because of the publication of a large number of macroeconomic data in the United States of America. Over the weekend, Donald Trump managed to give a big interview in which he stated that China's actions regarding the US electoral process are much worse than what the Russian Federation is doing. Given that the issue of interference with the elections is the main American horror story, it is obvious that such statements by the US President will in no way contribute to resolving trade disputes with China. True, such uncertainty and the growth of tension most often have a beneficial effect on the dollar. If we talk about macroeconomic statistics, then the expectations for it are quite optimistic. Thus, the accelerated growth in retail sales is projected from 6.6% right up to 7.0%, which, of course, compensates for the negative due to the slowdown in inflation. The number of building permits should increase by 3.4%, although the number of construction projects can be reduced by 3.5%. The total number of applications for unemployment benefits is likely to decrease by 17 thousand due to a decrease in the number of initial applications by 8 thousand, and repeated ones by another 9 thousand. Yes, and home sales in the secondary market may increase by 1.8%. Of course, it will not do without a negative, since the growth rate of industrial production can slow down from 4.9% to 4.7%, and last but not least, these are commercial stocks, which should increase by 0.5%. Growth stocks, of course, even more, scare the possibility of further slowing inflation. But the main event will be the publication of the text of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Operations in the open market, and no matter how much anyone says, the slowdown in inflation will not be reflected in this document. After all, inflation came out after the meeting. Moreover, the Fed is an extremely conservative structure, and even if inflation has slowed sharply, no one will make hasty conclusions. We need to make sure that the slowdown in inflation is sustainable, but it is too early to talk about it. So no hints that the pace of monetary policy tightening may be revised should not be sought in the text of the protocol. Thus, the content of the protocol is more likely to have a beneficial effect on the dollar.

In Europe, however, published data on inflation, which will confirm that it accelerated from 2.0% to 2.1%. Given that there are no specifics from the ECB, it will impress few people. The hysteria about the Italian budget deficit will clearly add to the experience. Even when everyone agrees that Italy will go beyond the bounds of decency in terms of the budget deficit, and this is inevitable, it will still be a long time to say that the debt problems of Europe have not gone away and are only getting worse. And if so, then what kind of minimization of the program of quantitative easing can be discussed. So, the single European currency will have to fall to 1.1425.

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They don't get bored in the UK either, as they didn't have time to start the week, as rumors arrived that Europe and the UK had already reached a final agreement. But then, there were also refutations, and quite sharp ones. Like, about any agreement and cannot be. This suggests that the withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union can occur at all without any agreement, which is extremely pitiable, and for the British economy. Even without talking about Brexit, there is something to amuse yourself. In particular, inflation in the UK can accelerate from 2.7% to 2.8%, which will be perceived extremely positively. But before that, it will have a hard time, as the data on the labor market should show an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits, as well as a slowdown in the average wage. And both with premiums, and without them. The only thing that can please from the content of the report on the labor market is the stability of the unemployment rate. Moreover, the growth rate of retail sales should remain unchanged, which, against the background of rising inflation and a slowdown in wage growth, does not look very convincing. So, as the pound will have to give up a few positions, and the reference looks like 1.2950.

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As for the ruble, which looked extremely stable, the first deputy chairman of the board of the Bank of Russia will clearly force investors to seriously think about the actions of the regulator. The fact is that just the other day, Ksenia Yudaeva said that it was too early to talk about reducing the key rate, but this issue should be considered at the next meeting of the Board of the Bank of Russia. And this is despite the fact that at the previous meeting, the key rate was raised. It turns out that the decision to raise the key rate was made by the Bank of Russia on the basis of assumptions that the ECB will precisely curtail the program of quantitative easing, and the Fed will continue to raise the refinancing rate. But even then it was clear that everything is not so simple, and lately, there has been increasing evidence that everything can turn completely different. Thus, the Bank of Russia makes hasty and rash decisions, and in such conditions, it is extremely difficult for investors to plan their actions. So the ruble will obviously be under pressure. Moreover, the external factors, which last week did not have a serious impact on him, this week will obviously fade into the background. Many people no longer pay attention to all sorts of accusations against Russia, especially since the United States has now clearly switched to China. Europeans alone will not take any aggressive steps. But oddities in the behavior of the Bank of Russia are more likely an even more terrible factor, so that the dollar can rise in price to 66.50 rubles.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the American session on October 15. The gap is closed, but buyers are in no hurry to return to the market

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The pound buyers did an excellent job of coping with the levels I mentioned in my morning forecast, reaching an important resistance of 1.3178, which now transformed into 1.3181. A new wave of growth will be formed only under the condition of the breakdown of 1.3181, which will be extremely difficult to do, as there is a 50-day moving average, limiting upward potential. A better scenario for long positions would be a decline in the support area of 1.3146. Otherwise, you can buy a pound immediately to rebound from the level of 1.3103.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers formed a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3178, and as long as the trade is conducted below the range of 1.3178-1.3181, the probability of a resumption of sales of the pound will remain. The main goal will be to reduce to the support level of 1.3146, the breakdown of which will quickly return GBP / USD to a minimum of 1.3103, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.3181 on the US data, you can sell a pound to rebound from the highs of 1.3218 and 1.3253.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The trade is conducted between the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the uncertainty of the market with further direction. There are no sellers yet, however ,the price has rested against the 50-day moving average, which limits the upside potential of the pound.

Bollinger bands

The upside potential is limited by the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3173. Its breakthrough will lead to a new wave of pound growth.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the US session on October 15. The euro buyers return to the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The breakthrough and consolidation at the level of 1.1570, to which I paid particular attention in my morning review, led to a resumption of growth of the European currency. The main purpose of buyers now is the update of last week's maximum of 1.1609, a breakthrough of which will be an additional signal for opening long positions, with access to the maximums of 1.1648 and 1.1682, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the euro declines in the second half of the day after good data on US retail sales, long positions can be returned after the support test of 1.1570 or to rebound from a week low of 1.1537.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers will rely on unsuccessful fixing above the resistance level of 1.1609, and good data on retail sales in the US will lead to a decrease in EUR / USD to the support area of 1.1570, where I recommend fixing the profits. If a quick sell-off after the update of last week's high does not follow, I recommend returning to short positions in euro only to rebound from the resistance level of 1.1648. A break of support at 1.1570 will instantly lead to a decline in the euro to the area of today's low of 1.1537.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The price returned above 30 and 50 average, which indicates a change in market sentiment in favor of buyers, however, to consolidate the result, a 30-day average 50-day crossover is required.

Bollinger bands

Buyers broke above the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which indicates the presence of large buyers in the market. In the event of a decline in the euro this afternoon, support will be provided by the middle of the channel of 1.1565.

analytics5bc475830b28d.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound held horses

Over the past few months, the British pound has become accustomed to being thrown into ice, then into fire. After optimistic statements from Brussels and London about the conclusion of an agreement by the October EU summit and the closing of long positions on the US dollar against the background of the correction of US stock indexes in the market, the pair GBP / USD level of 1.35 over the next two or three weeks was actively discussed. Alas, the bad news from the European Union and the stabilization of the S & P 500 exacerbate the risks that such a scenario would have to be put on hold.

Over the weekend, Theresa May was forced to send Brexit secretary Dominic Raab to the main negotiator for the European Union, Michel Barnier, with a message that he could not sign the current version of the agreement. Negotiations lasted about an hour, and a gap down GBP / USD at the opening of the Asian session of Forex testifies to their failure. The questions of the Irish border and the duration of the stay of Albion in the customs union with the EU remain open, and their unresolved position makes the "bulls" in sterling extremely vulnerable. In this regard, it becomes clear why the speculative net shorts for the previous two weeks, which have been declining over the past two weeks, increased by October 9, returning to the highest level since May 2017.

Sterling rightly claims to be the most interesting currency of the week, since, along with the EU summit and political conflicts, it will have to pass a test of a rich economic calendar. Releases of data on the labor market, inflation and retail sales in calm conditions could allow investors to clarify the position of the Bank of England, but they need to keep Brexit in mind. Theoretically, if average wages and inflation will rise (CPI, contrary to BoE forecasts), the chances of continuing the cycle of normalizing monetary policy should also increase. This circumstance, from a fundamental point of view, is able to extend a helping hand to the "bulls" on GBP / USD.

Dynamics of British Inflation and Repo Rates

analytics5bc474dfdab33.png

The confusion in the US stock market adds fog when forecasting the future dynamics of the analyzed pair. Despite positive forecasts of growth in corporate profits in 2018 (+ 23%), estimates for 2019 look significantly worse (+ 10%) and in fact may not be realized due to the fading effect of the fiscal stimulus and the revaluation of the dollar. The same goes for US GDP. Who will guarantee that in the next 3-4 quarters, the indicator will expand by 4% and higher? On the contrary, the slowdown of the US economy under the influence of trade wars and increased borrowing costs reinforce the risks of correction of the S&P 500 and force the dollar fans to close long positions.

The technically necessary condition for the continuation of the GBP / USD rally in the direction of the target by 161.8% using the AB = CD pattern is to keep the pair's quotes above the level of 1.3145 (23.6% of the AD pattern of the Bat pattern). On the contrary, the quotes going beyond the ascending trade channel will increase the risks of continuing the southern hike.

GBP / USD, the daily graph

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for October 15. We are waiting for the results of the Brexit negotiations at the EU summit

analytics5bc440dc7228f.png

Wave counting analysis:

During the trading on October 12, the GBP / USD pair lost about 85 base points. Thus, there is a reason to assume the construction of an internal correctional wave 2, in the future wave 5. If this is true, then an increase in quotations may resume from the current levels within wave 3 with targets located near the 100.0% of Fibonacci level. There are no grounds for sales, neither wave nor fundamental. On October 17, the EU summit and the next round of talks on Brexit will take place. Information from this event can greatly affect the movement of the pair.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3295 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.3397 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2922 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to build the estimated wave 5. Thus, now I recommend to continue to buy the pair with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.3295 and 1.3397, which corresponds to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3295 mark may lead to a departure of quotes from the reached maximums. There are no compelling reasons for selling, especially fundamental ones.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for October 15. Growth potential, Euro currency is still there

analytics5bc440a9e8d90.png

Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Friday, the EUR / USD currency pair rose by 40 base points. However, the estimated wave b may take the 3-waveform. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will resume with targets located near the estimated marks of 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. There were no unsuccessful attempts to break through one of the target levels, which also suggests the pair is not ready to complete the construction of wave b. Thus, I do not recommend returning to sales.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1432 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1622 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.1667 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to build the proposed wave b. Thus, I recommend to continue to stay in the pair with goals located near the estimated marks of 1.1622 and 1.1667. After working out one of these marks, we can expect an unsuccessful attempt to overcome, which will signify the completion of wave b. I recommend switching to sales of the pair after receiving an eloquent signal of the completion of wave b.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The tension will not allow the euro and the pound to strengthen

Today, a report on retail sales in September will be published. Despite the fact that a month ago the report was rather weak, there is no reason to wait for a failure in sales, since private consumption in the US remains high.

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Also on Monday, the Treasury will publish a September report on the state of the budget, and surprises are possible here. All attempts by the Trump administration to maintain budget revenues do not yet lead to a visible result, on the contrary, the trade deficit with China continues to grow. The consumers are in a hurry to buy themselves in anticipation of the Christmas holidays, because they expect prices to rise due to tariff restrictions.

On Tuesday, attention will be directed to the report on industrial production in September, which can in no way reach a sustainable growth path, despite the tax reform and capital repatriation measures.

The greatest interest is the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the FOMC meeting of September 26. After a deep correction in the markets that occurred in recent days, an overly optimistic tone of the protocols could be a disservice to the dollar, as it will increase the likelihood of a deterioration in the forecast for the rate at the December meeting.

Eurozone

Until Wednesday, the situation in the euro area will largely depend on political factors. On Monday, the first data will appear on the elections held in Bavaria on October 14, at which the Merkel CDU party may lose its sole right to form a cabinet of ministers due to the rapid growth of Euro-skeptics, the Alternative for Germany party. A low electoral result for the CDU will put pressure on the euro in the short term.

The second factor is the refusal of Italy to make changes to the budget, despite the fact that its planned deficit exceeds the permissible norms. The European Commission explicitly warned the Italian authorities that the budget would be rejected, and the likelihood of the ECB's interventions in the Italian debt market would be reduced to zero in the event of insubordination. The draft budget will be presented today, and in response to the euro may also decline.

On Tuesday, ZEW will present business sentiment indices in Germany and the eurozone as a whole, with negative forecasts. On a set of indicators for the euro on Monday morning, the negative outweighs in many ways, which makes the euro's chances of growth weak.

The currency pair EUR / USD will trade in the sideways, the probability of growth above the resistance of 1.1610 is low, and the support level of 1.1533.

Great Britain

On Thursday, the EU-UK summit will open, at which an agreement on Brexit is expected to be signed. Perhaps the announcement of the agreement reached will be commented on a day earlier, since, on Wednesday, the EU leaders will hold a working lunch in Brussels. Reaching an agreement is a positive factor for the pound, but since the agreement reached a leak on Friday, Monday is unlikely to show an increase in the pound, since concluding a political agreement is only the first stage, there is still no clarity on the trade agreement.

Two documents are being prepared for signing at the summit, the first of them regulate the procedure for financing European projects by Britain, under which its signature appeared earlier, and also fixes the absence of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, the second will outline the principles of the future agreement.

On Tuesday, a report on employment will be published, the dynamics of average wages are of most interest. Negative forecasts, it is expected that wage growth, including bonuses, will slow down from 2.6% to 2.4%, which will put pressure on both inflation expectations and the GBP / USD rate.

Today, the pound will trade sideways, with a downward trend. The supported range of 1.3060 / 71 and further 1.3019, resistance 1.3166.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. October 15th. A trading system "Regression Channels". The pound is losing ground on the eve of the EU summit

4-hour timeframe

analytics5bc43ae4e68c5.png

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -45.0798

The currency pair GBP / USD on October 12 and 15 has declined quite strongly. On the one hand, the technical price rebound from the Murray level "+1/8" is sufficient reason for the correction. Overcoming the MA has changed the upward trend in the pair to the downward one. On the other hand, questions remain on the fundamental component. Recently, we have often seen a picture when any rumors about the Brexit negotiations were accompanied by the growth of the British currency, although, as we have already written more than once, there was very little official information and the rumors were not confirmed by anything. However, this week, October 17, the EU summit will take place, during which the UK will again hold talks with Brussels on the most important issues on Brexit. This is, firstly, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and secondly, the issue of trade after Brexit between the EU and London. Thus, this week, with a high degree of probability, we will receive official information, and now, the future pound sterling will depend on it for the near future. If the negotiations fail again, as was the last time, it will create pressure on the British currency. Leaving the EU without a "deal" will deal a severe blow to the British economy, everyone understands this. If the negotiations do end up with the signing of the relevant documents, this may support the pound sterling, but it is hardly strong.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has overcome the moving. Thus, short positions with the target of 1.3062 are now relevant. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator up will signal a possible resumption of an uptrend and a reduction in shorts.

Buy positions are recommended to open if the pair consolidates above the moving average line, which will mean a return to the upward trend with the first target of 1.3184. The weak report on US retail sales can support today pound.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. October 15th. The trading system "Regression Channels". The pair is at a fork.

4-hour timeframe

analytics5bc43aa98f66c.png

Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 36.7939

The EUR / USD instrument on Friday, October 12, corrected to the moving average line, which was highly expected, given the technical need for correction, a rebound from the Murray level of 6/8. At the moment, the pair has worked moving. Thus, the price rebound from the MA can provoke a resumption of the upward movement with the goal of Murray level "6/8". If traders overcome the moving average, the downward movement will continue with the goal of Murray's level of "4/8", and the trend in the instrument will change to downward. Today, the only important macroeconomic report will be the report on US retail sales. It is expected that this indicator and its derivatives will be higher than last month. This could potentially support the US currency, but technology is more important now. In general, we can also note that on Friday, we saw a correction against a correction. Thus, the key question now remains whether traders will have grounds for new purchases of the US dollar. At the same time, Trump again threatens to impose trade restrictions on China. Now, we are talking not only about the introduction of new duties totaling $ 267 billion, which will cover absolutely all imports from China, but also about other measures, however, about which ones, it has not been reported.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1536

S2 - 1,1475

S3 - 1.1414

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1597

R2 - 1.1658

R3 - 1.1719

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair may complete a correction near the MA. The upward reversal of the Heikin Ashi will be a signal to open new long positions with a target of 1.1597, which has already been worked out.

It is recommended to open the sell positions after the price is fixed below the moving average line with the target Murray level "4/8" - 1.1475. In this case, bears will take hold of the instrument initiative, but they will definitely need new fundamental factors in favor of the dollar.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the European session on October 15. The next failure of negotiations on Brexit collapsed the pound

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

At the weekend, the EU and the UK again failed to reach an agreement on Brexit due to problems with the border of Ireland. In the current situation, it is best to return to pound purchases when a false breakdown is formed at the support level of 1.3103 or to open long positions already on a rebound from a new local minimum near 1.3047. The main task will be to return to the resistance level of 1.3141 and fixing on it, which will lead to a larger increase in GBP / USD in the area of 1.3172, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers will return to the market on a repeated test of support 1.3103, which will lead to its breakdown and a larger sale of the pound to the area of 1.3047 and 1.2982 lows, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of GBP / USD growth in the first half of the day to close the Asian gap, short positions can be viewed after an unsuccessful fixing above the resistance of 1.3141 or a rebound from the maximum of 1.3172.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The trade has moved below 30- and 50-medium, which indicates a bear market. In the case of an upward correction of the sale, you can see after the 30-day average test.

Bollinger bands

The pound today can be supported by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3072, while the middle line in the resistance area of 1.3141 will act as a deterrent for the upward correction.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on October 15. The euro buyers urgently need to return to the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The expected downward correction occurred at the end of last week, and now it is best to pay attention to euro purchases after the breakdown and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1570, on which the average moving, restricting growth is located. Only a breakthrough of 1.1570 will allow us to count on re-growth of EUR / USD with the update of the highs in the area of 1.1609 and exit to 1.1648, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a decline in the euro under the support level of 1.1537, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the support level of 1.1490. The formation of a false breakdown at 1.1537 in the morning will also be a good signal to buy euros.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to return to the support level of 1.1537, which will be another signal to sell the euro in order to update the area of 1.1490, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of EUR / USD growth in the first half of the day, short positions can be returned after an unsuccessful consolidation and decline below the resistance level of 1.1570 or to rebound from last week's high around 1.1609.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The trade has moved below the moving average, and the 30-day breaks down from the 50-day top, which is an additional bearish signal.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1540 will be a direct signal to open short positions in euros. The upper limit is just in the area of large resistance 1.1570.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for October 15. The pair resumed falling quotes

4h

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On Friday, without any divergence or rebound, the EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the American currency and consolidation under the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1558. As a result, on October 15, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497. There are no emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 50.0% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1620 is expected.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair quotes completed the close above the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Thus, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next level of correction 76.4% - 1.1789. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart either. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the European currency and resuming the fall in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be opened with a target of 1.1620 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 50.0% if the pair closes above the correction level of 1.1558.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold now with a target of 1.1497 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 50.0%, as the pair completed closing below the correction level of 1.1558.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for October 15. The bullish divergences predict a rise in the pound

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and began the process of returning to the level of correction of 23.6% - 1.3067 on the 4-hour chart. The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator is brewing on October 15. The last low of the quotes may turn out to be higher than the previous one, which does not coincide with the low of the indicator. The bullish divergence will allow to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.3316. Breaking quotes from the Fibo level of 23.6% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair completed under the correction level of 50.0% - 1.3110. Thus, the drop in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.3065. However, the resulting bullish divergence in the CCI indicator allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 61.8% - 1.3153. Closing quotes above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the chances of the pair at the beginning of growth.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of September 20, 2018, and October 4, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with targets at 1.3153 and 1.3208 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 50.0% if the pair closes above 1.3110 (hourly chart).

It will be possible to sell the currency pair GBP / USD with targets of 1.3065 and 1.3010 and a Stop Loss order above the 50.0% level if the pair rebounds the Fibo level of 1.3110 (hourly chart).

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The rising tensions in the markets will put pressure on the dollar

After the turbulent events of last week, when global stock markets came under extensive sales in the wake of growing fears that the world economy could not only slow down growth, but also start a reverse movement downward, amid the consequences of a trade war between Washington and Beijing and under the influence of the explicit protectionist policy of the United States, by the end of the week, market passion subsided somewhat, but did not completely disappear.

Observing the development of the situation in the markets, we note that investors seem to have paused, waiting for further developments. In our opinion, it is too early to hope that everything has settled and the situation has returned to normal. The main reasons that excite the markets have not disappeared anywhere, and the local rebound in the markets in a positive direction can be explained by the banal profit taking.

As for the factors that are long-playing, this is, of course, a trade war between the United States and China, which is already gradually developing into a geopolitical and geostrategic confrontation. We are confident that this is the main reason for the current high volatility will have a negative effect on financial markets for quite some time. Another reason is the desire of the Fed to normalize monetary policy. In the wake of the trade wars turmoil, the market players somehow stopped paying attention to this really important reason, which, together with the decline in the balance of the American regulator, puts pressure on the US stock market and the amount of dollar liquidity that caused the formation of financial bubbles in America growth of investor interest in the assets of emerging economies.

Raising interest rates by the Fed, as well as the process of reducing liquidity, will put pressure not only on the US stock market, but throughout the world. At the same time, in our opinion, the US dollar will also react nervously to market volatility. It is likely that in the foreseeable future, before the elections to the US Congress, the dollar will receive support amid a decrease in tensions in the markets and will be under pressure with its growth. This behavior can be explained by a purely psychological factor of market players, and not by economic data and market developments.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above the level of 1.1530. It will probably remain in the range of 1.1530-1.1605, growing up in anticipation of the Brexit summit to be held this week. Only a stream of negative news can push the pair below 1.1530 and cause it to fall to 1.1445.

The currency pair AUD / USD is trading above the level of 0.7090. It is also likely to be in the range of 0.7090-0.7130, but if sentiment in the markets changes in a positive direction, it can grow to 0.7170, but for this, it will have to break out of the range. At the same time, the negative can push the pair to a local minimum of 0.7040 after overcoming the level of 0.7090.

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Forecast of EUR / USD for October 15, 2018

EUR / USD

On Friday last week, after a prolonged struggle in the stock markets, indices closed the day with growth: S & P500 1.42%, Nasdaq 2.29%. The main news is the desire of the United States to once again declare China a currency manipulator. Euro Friday closed down by 33 points, today the opening of the market occurred with a decreasing gap of 17 points. To continue the decline towards the targets of 1.1376 and 1.1300, the price needs to be fixed below the indicator trend lines on H4 and daily, this is the range of 1.1516 / 20, which coincides with the correction level of 23.6% on H4. While this is not there, the price will try to close the morning gap with an increase of 38.2% (1.1579) to the Fibonacci level, which can result in a turn of the Marlin signal line from the zero line slightly upwards.

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Today, there are indicators for retail sales in the United States. The total retail sales for September is expected to increase by 0.7% (the increase is above average), basic sales (excluding transport) are expected to be 0.4%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York in October is projected at 20.4 points against 19.0 in September. If the data does not fail, our lowering scenario will get a greater likelihood of implementation.

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Forecast of GBP / USD for October 15, 2018

GBP / USD

The British pound could not withstand the voltage on the strong resistance of the price channel line and fell on Friday by 76 points. Also, investors preferred to close positions before the new week of uncertainty on the Brexit negotiations. Previously, information was circulated that some consensus could already be reached on key provisions of the treaty, but it is likely that there will not be a consensus not only today, but until the end of the week. As a result, the pound opened the week with a gap of 68 points. The fall was stopped by the line of balance on the daily chart and the Kruzenshtern line at the four o'clock position. In the confrontation of today's news on Brexit and US statistics, gap can be closed. In the event of a breakthrough in the negotiations, the pound can overcome such strong resistance, from which the price has twice turned down on the daily chart, and grow to the range of 1.3362-1.3410.

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In the US, retail sales for September are expected to increase by 0.7%, basic sales (excluding transport) are expected to increase by 0.4%. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York in October is projected to 20.4 points against 19.0 a month earlier.

On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator line touched the border with the territory of decline, which currently creates a balance situation that is equally likely to move in both directions. Also, the price itself is on the balance line on both the daily and four-hour charts.

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Forecast of USD / JPY for October 15, 2018

USD / JPY

Friday's fight in the stock markets, which ended in victory for the bulls, had a positive effect on the Japanese yen. After bargaining with an amplitude of 30 points, the yen closed the day with an increase of 5 points. When the S & P500 closed down by 1.42%, Asian stock indices are experiencing severe discomfort today; Nikkei 225 -1.75%, S & P / ASX 200 -1.18%, China A50 -0.93%. Only Indonesian IDX Composite grows by 0.23%.

The yen is trading in the range of Thursday and Friday, the technical situation has not changed these days. To continue reducing the price, you need to shift the balance of the trend down, entrenched below the balance line on the daily chart, below the level of 111.77, and then the goal will be 110.39, at least from September 7, continued growth. It is necessary to fix above the Kruzenshtern line on the daily chart, above 112.70, and then it will be possible to increase to the resistance of the trend line of the price channel by 114.60.

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On the one hand, the yen is supported by good expectations from US economic data, in particular, an increase in retail sales in September may be 0.7%, but, on the other hand, trade, the relations between the US and China have become even more acute. What trend will win will be seen in the coming days.

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Fractal analysis of Gold, Silver, and Oil for October 15

Analytical review of Gold, Silver, and Oil

According to Silver, the price forms a pronounced potential for the top of October 11 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 14.73. According to Gold, the medium-term cycle dated September 28 was taken as the definition of subsequent targets for the upward trend. For Oil, we mainly expect movement in the correction from the downward structure on October 3.

Forecast for October 15:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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According to Silver, the main key levels on the scale of H1 are: 14.98, 14.88, 14.73, 14.64, 14.49, 14.43 and 14.35. Here, we are following the formation of the upward potential from October 11. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 14.64. In this case, the target is 14.73 and the breakdown of which must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 14.88. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 14.98, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 14.49 - 14.43 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 14.35.

The main trend is the formation of upward potential from October 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 14.64 Take profit: 14.72

Buy: 14.74 Take profit: 14.86

Sell: 14.49 Take profit: 14.43

Sell: 14.42Take profit: 14.36

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According to Gold, the main key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1245.82, 1235.96, 1228.48, 1224.37, 1213.81, 1208.96 and 1201.07. Here, we are following the development of the ascending cycle of September 28. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1224.37 - 1228.48 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 1235.96, the consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1245.82, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1213.81 - 1208.96 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1201.07.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1228.50 Take profit: 1235.00

Buy: 1237.00 Take profit: 1245.00

Sell: 1213.50 Take profit: 1209.50

Sell: 1208.00 Take profit: 1202.00

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According to Oil, the main key levels on the scale of H1 are: 74.06, 73.02, 72.48, 70.86, 70.10, 69.52 and 68.22. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 3. At the moment, the price is in the correction area. The downward movement is possible after a breakdown of 70.86. Here, the target is 70.10 and in the range of 70.10 - 69.52 is the consolidation and hence the likelihood of a movement upwards is high. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 68.22, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 72.48 - 73.02 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the target is 74.06.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 3, the stage of correction.

The tool serves to determine the key trend. Its confirmation or cancellation by GOLD. Often has the opposite correlation with GOLD.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 16, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that Bitcoin is in short-term balance. The high of the balance is set at the price of $6.710 and the low of the balance is set at the price of $6.163. Most recently, I have found that successful rejection of the support at $6.313, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward take profit level is set at the price of $6.710.

Support/Resistance

$6.454 – Intraday resistance

$6.313– Intraday support

$6.710 – Objective target

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