Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 30, 2015

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Transient bearish pressure has previously been applied around 1.4960-1.5000 (daily 38.2% Fibonacci level as well as previous weekly demand level).

Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency was expressed on the daily chart until a bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a Full-body bullish candlesticks).

Persistence above the zone of 1.5000-1.5080 exposes the weekly supply zone at 1.5500-1.5550 (also corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level).

On the other hand, the recent demand zone between 1.5000 and 1.5080 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) will probably offer a valid long-term buy entry as soon as retesting takes place

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 30, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair in the long term. However, some bullish rejection is expressed by the ongoing monthly candlestick.

On the long-term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 shouldn't be excluded as long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

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The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets.

Full projection targets of the Flag pattern were successfully reached at 1.0800 and 1.0500.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Last week, the price zone between 1.0750 and 1.0800 failed to neutralize the ongoing bullish momentum. Insteadof it, an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0750.

This applied strong bullish pressure over the level of 1.1050, exposing the next supply zone at 1.1150-1.1240 where the price action should be watched carefully for a valid sell entry if the current daily candlestick comes as a reversal one by the end of the day.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

On March 2, bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the previous daily channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Persistence below the zone of 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline.

Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700. Shortly after, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established.

Evident bullish recovery emerged at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established on the H4 chart.

As anticipated, daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) ended the ongoing bearish momentum. This exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5350 and 1.5400 (upper limit of the ongoing H4 channel).

In the short term, the zone of 1.5240-1.5200 (lower limit of the H4 channel and previous consolidation range) constitutes a significant intraday support when further bearish pullback occurs.

Persistence below 1.5400 (the upper limit of the H4 channel and previous prominent resistance) enhances the bearish side of the market towards the levels of 1.5300, 1.5250, and 1.5150 if enough bearish momentum is expressed below 1.5240.

On the other hand, the level of 1.5050 remains the most prominent support level to watch for long-term buy entries (corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous consolidation range's upper limit)

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought.

The market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone, enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

A daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000, 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout), and 1.1870 (the depicted weekly uptrend) if enough bearish momentum is maintained. That's why these levels should be watched carefully for early signs of bullish price action.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2320-1.2350 remains the significant intraday resistance zone for further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry at retesting.

Trading recommendations:

For those who missed the initial breakout below 1.2100, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards 1.2170-1.2200 for a low-risk sell entry.

T/P levels should be placed at 1.1950, 1.1860, and 1.1810 while S/L should be placed above 1.2170.

Risky traders can take a high-risk BUY entry around the current prices.T/P is projected at 1.2100 and 1.2270 as long as USD/CAD bulls keep defending Today's low (1.1940).

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EUR/NZD : analysis for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.4766 in a high volume. The short-term trend is bullish. Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish correction. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe that our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at 1.4200 was held successfully. It caused the price to start moving upwards. Our objective points at the levels of 1.4385, 1.4490, and 1.4525 are met. According to Fibonacci expansion, the next bullish objective point is at the level of 1.5000 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand in a high volume, which is a sign that selling looks risky.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4500

R2: 1.4571

R3: 1.4685

Support levels:

S1: 1.4268

S2: 1.4200

S3: 1.4081

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement.


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Gold : analysis for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,202.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a supply in a high volume but with very weak price action (weak supply). Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% (support) at $1,174.00 was held successfully. It caused the price to start an upward movement. Major resistance is seen around the level of $1,220.00. The short-term trend is neutral. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in an average volume but with weak price action. I had placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at $1,225.00, Fibonacci expansion 100% at $1,256.00, and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at $1,306.00. I had also placed Fibonacci retracement from the most recent upward leg to find potential support levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at $1,200.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at $1,190.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,212.95

R2: 1,216.00

R3: 1,220.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,203.00

S2: 1,200.00

S3: 1,195.00

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after bearish correction. The first major resistance is around the level of $1,224.00.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 30, 2015

GBP/USD got another bullish momentum within the Wednesday session, trying to reach the level of 1.5538, which is the closest resistance on the upside. Now, we could expect a bullish consolidation with a higher high pattern formation at the daily time frame. Don't forget that the 200 SMA in the resistance zone of 1.5538 could act as dynamic resistance.

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In the H1 chart, we can observe some kind of bullish pattern formation below the level of 1.5439. The pair is trying to test the resistance zone of 1.5496 again. In an intraday outlook, GBP/USD is still supported by 1.5396 and if it does a breakout in this zone, it would be expected to fall to the support at 1.5346.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5538 / 1.5778

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5371 / 1.5238

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5439 / 1.5496

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5396 / 1.5346



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5439, take profit is at 1.5496, and stop loss is at 1.5383.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

  • The resistance was set at the level of 1.5051 and the support was found at 1.5340 on April 30, 2015. So, according to the previous events, the price is moving between 1.5340 and 1.5051. It should be noted that the range will be around 289 pips this week. Consequently, the trend in the H4 chart is calling for a bullish market at the levels of 1.5051 and 1.5401. For this reason, look for further upside move with targets at 1.5490 above the levels of 1.5051 and 1.5401 if it can break a minor resistance at 1.9490. The price will continue towards 1.5551 in order to test the double top. On the other hand, if the the pair will be not able to break the strong resistance at 1.5551, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.5551; for that it will be a good sign to sell below 1.5551 with the first target at 1.5435 and it will call for downtrend to continue bearish towards 1.5360.

Notes:

  • Resistance is seen at 1.5551 and the support placed at 1.5360.
  • We expect a range of 80 pips today, and up to 300 pips this week.
  • Please consider the market volatility before investing, as the sight price is likely to be already reached.
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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 30, 2015

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Overview:

The double top of AUD/USD pair has been set at 0.8073 and the resistance is seen around the area of 0.8014 and 0.7990. So, according to the previous events, the price is moving below the level of 0.7990. Therefore, the first step is to wait for a period of tight sideways market before breakouts. Then, probably, the market is going to start showing bearish signs from the spot of 0.7990 again. In other words, it will be a good sign to sell below 0.7990 with the first target at 0.7902, and the price will drop towards 0.7876 in order to test the lowest price at the level of 0.7876 which coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H4 chart. However, if the pair fails to break the support at 0.7876, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.7876 and the level of 0.7876 will act as strong support in the same time frame. Consequently, it will be a good sign to buy above 0.7876 in the long term with the first target at 0.7966 and it will call for an uptrend to continue bullish movement towards the first resistance at 0.8014.

Intraday technical levels:

Date: 30/04/2015

Pair: AUD/USD

  • R3: 0.8155
  • R2: 0.8115
  • R1: 0.8056
  • PP: 0.8016
  • S1: 0.7957
  • S2: 0.7917
  • S3: 0.7858
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#USDX technical analysis for April 30, 2015

The Head and Shoulders pattern is working out as expected once we have broken below 96.20. The Dollar index remains in the down trend with a target at 93. I warned bulls what could happen if we broke the neckline.

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Green line= H&S neckline

The dollar index is accelerating lower towards its target area around 93. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. The short-term resistance is found at 95.50 and at 96. If bulls manage to push the index back above the neckline, this bearish trend will be challenged.

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Green line= trend line support

The Dollar index gave its first warning once it closed below the tenkan-sen. Support is at the kijun-sen at 93.70 now . I believe this is the minimum target level but I cannot rule out a deeper correction towards the green trend line support. Bears have the upper hand now and I believe once this correction is over near 93, a new up trend will start. Until then, trend remains bearish.

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Gold technical analysis for April 30, 2015

Gold price could be forming a bullish flag. The price is sliding downwards and sideways. It is likely to be heading towards the 38% retracement at $1,200 but it looks like we could see another leg higher towards $1,250 specially if the price breaks above $1,215-22.

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Gold price will give a short-term buy signal if it breaks above this bullish flag pattern. The level to watch out for this potential break out is at $1,210. Strong resistance is also found at $1,222 where the previous high was. Breaking above the $1,222 high will be a strong buy signal with a target at $1,250. Support is at $1,190.

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Weekly chart remains bearish as price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the kijun-sen. The price is above the tenkan-sen and the kijun-sen. Strong resistance is found at $1,222 where the previous high and rejection was and where the 50% retracement is found. Breaking above this level will push Gold price towards the 61.8% retracement. Critical support at $1,175.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 30, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a seven-day low of 118.58 on Wednesday. USD/JPY is undermined by negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.21 versus 96.10 early Wednesday) on the back of the US flash GDP weaker-than-expected 0.2% annual rate growth in the Q1 (versus forecast +1.0%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the flows to haven JPY amid decreased risk tolerance (VIX fear gauge rose 7.9% to 13.39, S&P 500 closed 0.37% lower at 2,106.85 overnight) due to weak US GDP data; Japan export sales. But USD sentiment is soothed after the statement from the Federal Reserve sounded more optimistic than expected (the central bank said some of the recent softness in the US economy reflected "transitory factors," although it offered investors little additional clarity on its course of rate increases). USD/JPY downside is also limited by demand from Japan importers, and higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.045% versus 1.973% late Tuesday).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining; but bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.30. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 117.80. The pivot point stands at 119.35. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 119.70 and the second target at 120.10.

Resistance levels:
119.70
120.10
120.45

Support levels:
118.30
117.80
117.40

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 30, 2015

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Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate after hitting a two-month low of 0.9335 on Wednesday. It is undermined by negative dollar sentiment and franc demand on retreating EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF is limited by the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9335. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9290. The pivot point stands at 0.9500. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9575 and the second target at 0.9620.

Resistance levels:
0.9575
0.9620
0.9670

Support levels:
0.9335
0.9290
0.9245

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 30, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias after hitting a three-month high of 0.7744 on Wednesday. Kiwi sentiment is weak as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the interest rate at 3.5% as widely anticipated and left the door open for a possible rate decrease. Besides, Fonterra cut its forecast milk solid payout. NZD/USD is also weighed by kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross, soft dairy prices, and subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by negative dollar sentiment.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastic is turning bearish near overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7545. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7490. The pivot point stands at 0.7665. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7700 and the second target at 0.7740.

0.77
0.7740
0.7785

Support levels:
0.7545
0.7490
0.7445

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 30, 2015

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Fundamental outlook:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets are awiting BOJ's policy decision. GBP/JPY undermined by reduced investor risk appetite, Japan export sales, and higher-than-expected UK GfK consumer confidence index of +4 (versus forecast +3) in April. But GBP/USD is limited by waning investor risk appetite upside and by demand from Japan importers downside.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought levels, five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 184.20 and the second target at 185. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 181.60. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 180.75. The pivot point is at 182.40.

Resistance levels:
184.20
185
185.65

Support levels:
181.60
180.75
180

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30, 2015

General overview for 30-04-2015 07:20 CET

The upward extension in this pair has hit the level of 132.89, just slightly above the WR3 at the level of 132.62, and then the market reversed. The price is still trading inside the bullish zone between the levels of 130.10 and 132.89, but it is quite possible that the intermediate top for wave B black has been made and now the market might start to develop another wave down to complete the overall structure. To confirm this scenario, the price must break out below the intraday support at the level of 131.29 and hit the support at the level of 130.10. Nevertheless, this kind of price action is still not enough to confirm that the longer-term top is in place. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 128.82 is a real game-changer for this pair.

Support/Resistance:

132.89 - Local High

132.63 - WR3

131.77 - Intraday Resistance

131.64 - WR2

131.29 - intraday Support

130.51 - WR1

130.10 - Projected Target

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening sell orders from the current levels or wait for a breakout below the level of 131.29 as a confirmation of a valid sell setup. Rather tight SL should be used here (20-30 pips or above the level of 131.77) and TP should be placed at the level of 131.10.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair had hit 1.4700 yesterday before pulling back sharply lower to 1.4400. The pair is seen to be trading around 1.4500/10 levels for now and is expected to rally further higher. It is recommended to remain long with risk at 1.4400 and higher levels through 1.4800/30 at least. Immediate support is seen at 1.4350 followed by 1.4200, 1.4100, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.4800/30 followed by 1.4900 and higher respectively. The bulls seem to be poised to push prices higher until prices remain above 1.4350/1.4200 subsequently.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at 1.4350, a target is open.

Good luck!


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 30 - 2015

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Technical summary:

Both resistance at 1.4490 and 1.4546 has be taken out and we have to consider the possibility that wave i has already ended at 1.4394 and wave iii is rallying currently. It is likely to move much higher. The minimum target for wave iii is seen at the extension target at, but it does not need to be the top of wave iii. A break above the base-channel resistance line near 1.4640 will indicate that this count is correct.

Trading recommendation:

We took a nice big profit at 144.75. Now, we are looking to buy EUR at 1.4350 or upon a break above 1.4640.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30 - 2015

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Technical summary:

A break above the base-channel resistance-line was, in fact, a strong acceleration higher with the first extension target at 131.90. A rally through this resistance was seen for a continuation higher to the 200% extension target at 132.95. Now, the broken base channel resistance-line near 131.22 should ideally provide the support for the next rally to 134.65 but even if blue wave iv moves back into the base-channel, it should not move below 130.36 before the next rally towards 134.65.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.85 and will move our stop higher to 130.20. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR near 131.22 with the same stop at 130.20.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY cleared the resistance at 131.50 yesterday as we can see on the 4-hour chart view. We reccomend to buy on dips from here on. The area of interest to initiate long positions is seen around 128.00/129.00. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 support and the resistance turned support trend-line is also converging around the same region. It is recommended to initiate long positions around 128.00/129.00 on a bullish bounce. Immediate support is seen at 130.30 followed by 128.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 134.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. Looking to buy lower.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 30, 2015

General overview for 30-04-2015 07:50 CET

Despite the general bad news from the US, the US dollar has started to show some signs of a rebound that is possible in the near term. The first clue of a possible reversal coming is important support in form of Fibonacci cluster between the levels of 1.1986 (July 2014 low) and 1.2023 (July 2011 low). The second clue came from a clear and simple bullish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator. The third clue that supports the view of a possible reversal is a completed WXY corrective pattern in wave 4 green, which means there should be one more wave to the upside made to complete the higher degree structures. The first hurdle to overcome is the golden trend line dynamic resistance and the technical resistance at the level of 1.2087, so any break out above this zone will be considered bullish.

Support/Resistance:

1.1944 - Local Low

1.1986 - 38%Fibo

1.2023 - 23%Fibo

1.2086 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider to open buy orders from current price levels or wait for a break out above the level of 1.2086 as a confirmation of a valid buy setup. Rather tight SL should be used here (20-30 pips) and TP is open for now.

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Technical analysis of Silver for April 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading around $16.50 at the moment and is expected to find support at $16.00 before it resumes its uptrend. Please note that the level of $16.00 is also the fibonacci 0.618 support for the recent rally between $15.60 and $16.70. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to enter buying lower around those levels. Bulls are expected to regain control around $16.00 if ut gets reached. Immediate support is seen at $16.30 followed by $15.80, $15.30, and lower. Resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat now.

Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for April 30, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is retracing lower as it was discussed and expected earlier. The metal is trading around $1,202.00 at the moment and support is expected around $1,190.00. Please note that $1,190.00 is the fibonacci 0.618 support for the rally between $1,175.00 and $1,215.00. Immediate support is seen at the level of $1,200.00 followed by $1,190.00, $1,175.00, $1,162.00and and lower. Resistance is seen at $1,235.00 followed by $1,280.00/85.00 and higher respectively. Bulls should resume rally from around the level of $1,190.00 for now.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. Looking to buy lower

Good luck!


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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 30, 2015

EUR/USD: There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this currency trading instrument: the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the price is above them all. The Williams' % Range period 20 has constantly been in an overbought territory. In addition, some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the market.

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USD/CHF: Because of the strength in the EUR/USD, the USD/CHF has been forced to go downwards, slashing the adamant resistance level at 0.9500 to the downside. Even the support level at 0.9350 was also tried – it might be tried again in the face of the continuation of the selling pressure. Based on what was said at the beginning of this week, the event on the USD/CHF is being determined by what happens on the EUR/USD.

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GBP/USD: This market has continued moving upwards, shrugging off any bearish attempts along the way. Any bearish retracements in this type of market would be transitory in nature, for the trend may continue going further upwards. The distribution territory at 1.5500 may be tested and breached to the upside, unless the price eases seriously.

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USD/JPY: This is still essentially a bear market. While bears may succeed in bringing the price towards the demand level at 118.50, stronger weakness in the market would be required to breach that demand level to the downside. For now, there is no significant movement here.

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EUR/JPY: All eyes are on the euro as it is one of the strongest currencies among the majors now. Most Euro pairs have proved that. For example, the EUR/JPY has gone upwards by 350 pips this week, slashing through the supply zone at 132.50 before easing. The supply zone could be breached again unless there is a strong reversal in the trend.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/NZD for April 30, 2015

NZD: The Reserve Bank of NZ has left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.5 percent today. The New Zealand economy continues to grow at an annual rate of around 3 percent supported by low interest rates, higher net immigration, construction activity, and fall in fuel prices. House price inflation is elevated in Auckland. However, lower dairy incomes, lingering effects of drought, fiscal consolidation, and higher exchange rate are weighing on the outlook for growth. On a trade-weighted basis, the New Zealand dollar continues to be unjustifiably high and unsustainable in terms of New Zealand's long-term economic fundamentals. The timing for further adjustments in the OCR is likely to depend on the inflationary pressure in both the non-traded and traded sectors.

Technical view: Immediately after the RBNZ policy meeting, traders started selling off the kiwi against AUD, EUR, and GBP. The crosses EUR/NZD & GBP/NZD gave a bullish inverse head and shoulder break on the higher side.

EUR/NZD: The cross edged higher and made the double bottom at 1.4174, which was a low back in April 28, and changed the direction. The cross managed to close above 20&50 dsma at yesterday's session. It gained 3% closed at the highest point of the day. Today, the cross has opened on a bullish bias trading at 1.4558 compared to 1.4474. Currently, the cross is trading at a 5-week high and above the previous swing in the daily chart. In all time frames, the near and medium-term trends favor buyers. In the near term, we expect bulls to challenge 1.4685 and 1.4785 In the medium term, the levels of 1.4820, 1.4860, and 1.4930 are likely to be challenged. At the Asian session, a big spike took place. Those who wish to join this cross bull's party start buying between 1.4540 and 1.4390 use sl 1.4170.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for USDX and USD/JPY for April 30,2015

Yesterday, we didn't get any signal from the Federal Reserve after the FOMC meeting. The March strong tone was missed in April. Labour market conditions improved in March but it was moderated in April. Economic growth was moderated in March and slowed in April. The US announced the GDP in the Q1 2015 was 0.2% compared to 2.2% in the Q4 2014. Literally, the US economy has stalled. The USDX drifted to the 100Dema 94.60. In case the price closes below 94.60, bears can challenge 93.80 and 93.20. On the up side, 96.17 acting as strong ceiling. The index was capped at 100.00 mark for the near term. At yesterday's session, we advised 94.66 to be the last hope for bulls. The index made a low at 94.68 and closed at 95.10. Today, the index is trading in green zone.

USD/JPY

Japanese factory output was released within the Asian session today. The readings were far below expectations printed at 0.3%. The Japanese factory output data interlinked with the China and US economy. Both economies have been struggling.

Technical view: The pair made the double bottom between 118.30 and 118.54. The 100Dema is found at 118.20 moved from 118.00 to 118.20. Ahead of the BOJ monetary policy, JPY is trading higher against USD. In case the price breaks below 118.50, it can get up to 118.30. In case the price closes below 100Dema 118.20, bears can challenge 117.20 and 116.50 in the near term. The strong resistance is seen between 119.30 100Dsma, 119.50 20Dsma, and 119.85 50Dsma. In the four-hour chart, we can observe head and shoulder pattern formation. Bulls' last hope is found at 118.20. We have been recommending buying on dips. This view will erase if 118.20 was taken off and reverse the trade for the given downside targets. The trading pattern is framed between 119.45 and 118.20. Intraday support is found at 118.60 below this mild support is found at 118.54 and 118.30.We recommend intraday selling below 118.50 with small targets at 118.30, 118.00, and 117.90. In case the price closes below 118.20, bears can challenge 117.20, 116.80, and 115.80.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for USD against CAD and CHF for April 30, 2015

USD/CAD

The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) increased 0.3% in March as a result of higher energy and petroleum product prices. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) declined 0.9%, mainly because of lower prices for crude energy products.

Today, traders eye Canada GDP m/m. We expect neutral stance for April.

Technical view:We have been recommending selling with sl 1.2350 with targets at 1.2100 and 1.1875 (dated April 21, 2015 article). As of now, the pair made a low at 1.1945. Yesterday, we advised the pair was going to touch 1.1950, 1.1900, and 1.1875 on the downside. The pair made a low at 1.0945. The pair found strong resistance between 1.2210 and 1.2270 100Dema and 100Dsma respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma or 100dema, bearish view remains in play. Besides, the bearish cross took place in the daily chart. On the downside, the support is found at 1.1850 and 1.1690. The weekly 38.2 fib is seen at 1.1980. Intarday view: Ahead of today's event, CAD is trading higher against USD. Hourly resistance is seen at 1.2045 and 1.2090. On a daily basis, until the pair closes below 1.2170, use every rise to sell for the rest of the targets.

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USD/CHF

The pair gave a break on the downside from the bearish head and shoulder pattern. In all time frames, the pair favors bears. All the USD related pairs (USD/CAD,USD/CHF, and USD/JPY) favor bears. Except for USD/JPY, the pairs are are expressing extreme bearish mode. The pair made a strong base at 0.9490, fell, and closed below that. Use every spike to add more sell trades. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to hold the 100Wema. On the down side, support is found at 0.9220 and 0.9160. We recommend to start positional buying between 0.9250 and 0.9200 with sl 0.9160.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 30, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Unemployment Rate, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, ECB Economic Bulletin, German Unemployment Change, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German Retail Sales m/m are due.The US is expected to release data on the Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1166.

Strong Resistance:1.1160.

Original Resistance: 1.1149.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1138.

Target Inner Area: 1.1112.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1086.

Original Support: 1.1075.

Strong Support: 1.1064.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1058.




Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 30, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Press Conference, Housing Starts y/y, Monetary Policy Statement, and Prelim Industrial Production m/m. The US will publish economic data on Natural Gas Storage, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m, and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 119.55.

Resistance. 2: 119.32.

Resistance. 1: 119.08.

Support. 1: 118.81.

Support. 2: 118.58.

Support. 3: 118.23.



Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for GBP/NZD for April 30, 2015

GBP/NZD: The cross has been enjoying 1year bull ride from a low of 1.7704. Previously, the cross gave an inverse bullish head and shoulder break in the weekly chart. The weekly target is almost completed. The cross has been consolidating between 1.9238 and 2.1050 for 7 months. On the weekly chart, the cross has been forming higher lows and lower tops. Today, after the RBNZ rate announcement, the cross gave an inverse bullish head and shoulder pattern targeting 2.0500.

The cross edged higher, made the double bottom at 1.9300 that was a low back in April 21 and changed the direction. Today, the cross has opened on a bullish bias trading at 2.0254 compared to 2.0072. Currently, the cross is trading at a 5-week high. In all time frames, the near and medium-term trends favor buyers. In the near term, we expect bulls to challenge 2.0500. Traders can buy above 2.0350 with targets at 2.0500. Ahead of the UK election, we expect wild moves in coming days. Only lion hearts can trade in this cross.

Trade: Buying above 2.0350

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for April 30, 2015

EUR/USD

EURO:The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 increased to 4.6% in March 2015 from 4.0% in February 2015. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from January 2015 to March 2015 increased to 4.1%, from 3.8% in the period from December 2014 to February 2015. The inflation rate in Germany is expected to be 0.4% in April 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office also reported that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.1% on March 2015.

Upcoming data: The eurozone macro calendar offered a data-heavy day. Today, traders eye German retail sales data, French consumer spending, Spanish flash CPI on Y/Y, Spanish flash GDP q/q, Germany unemployment change, CPI flash estimate y/y, core CPI flash estimate y/y, and unemployment changes. Things should pick up rapidly by today however as we have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to. We expect positive data from Germany and Spanish. The euro CPI and unemployment are likely to show positive readings as well.

Technical view: The pair has been extending its bullish footprints for five consecutive days. The pair was rejected at 161.8 FE, 1.1191 in the daily chart. At yesterday's session, the pair made a high at 1.1188 but closed at 1.1128. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note. The euro is trading at 1.1115 against USD compared to Wednesday's close price of 1.1128. The pair managed to give a break on the upside in the strong supply zone around 1.1055 and closed above that. The immediate resistance was found at 1.1250 20Wsma. We expect the near-term cap between 1.1250 and 1.1315. As of now, the pair gained 380 pips with our correction. In case the price breaches above 1.1250 2Dsma, another strong resistance zone will be found at 1.1300 and 1.1315 10Dsma and 100Dema respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma/ema, the bearish views remain in play. Bulls have only 100 to 150 pips on the upside. Further spikes will favor new sell trades with sl 1.1250 on a weekly closing basis or use sl 1.1315 and start selling.

Intraday view:Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1191 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.1250. Intraday support is found at 1.1110 and 1.1067. Today and tomorrow's trading pattern is framed between 1.1030 and 1.1250. Either side break will provide further room to trade aggressively. The previous supply zone at 1.1030 and 1.1055 is currently acting as a support zone. For risky traders we recommend selling with sl 1.1129 for targets at 1.1070 and 1.1050. Panic will be triggered below 1.1030. In case German and European data print positive readings, we will recommend buying above 1.1130 with targets at 1.1150, 1.1190, 1.1230 whereas 1.1250 is the crucial trend-change level on a weekly closing basis.

Trade: Selling with sl 1.1129

Buying above 1.1130

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 29, 2015

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Transient bearish pressure has been applied around 1.4960-1.5000 (38.2% Fibonacci level as well as previous weekly demand level).

Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency was expressed on the daily chart until a bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a Full-body bullish candlesticks).

The recently-established demand zone at 1.5000-1.5080 (38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) will probably provide significant bullish pressure for further retesting offering a valid long-term buy entry.

Persistence above the zone of 1.5000-1.5080 exposes the next weekly supply zone at 1.5500-1.5550 as depicted on the chart.

Note that the level of 1.5350 corresponds the previous consolidation range (February 2015). A risky intraday sell entry can be anticipated around the current prices.

On the other hand, the recent demand zone between 1.5000 and 1.5080 (38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) will probably offer a valid long-term buy entry as soon as retesting takes place.

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 29, 2015

The USDX seems to be strong at the current bearish structure in the daily chart, because the Index is trying to consolidate below the level of 96.30 and it's looking to reach the support zone of 95.00. Eventually, the USDX could accelerate lower if it does a breakout at 95.00, which could open the way to test the 200 SMA.

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During the yesterday session, the USDX managed to consolidate below the resistance level of 96.34 and now we're expecting some bearish consolidation, but favoring the sideways moves. The 200 SMA is still pointing to the downwards and there is enough room for more falls, but the USDX could do a strong rebound at the current levels. We don't recommend to do intraday trades today.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.83 / 99.94

Dailychart's support levels: 96.30 / 95.00

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.83 / 97.18

H1 chart's support levels: 96.34 / 95.87



Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.34, take profit is at 95.87, and stop loss is at 96.83.

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