GBP / USD: plan for the American session on September 28. Pressure on the pound remains

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Buyers gave way to the support level of 1.3054, and the main task for the second half of the day will be a return to this range, which could lead to an upward correction in the pound to the resistance area of 1.3100, where I recommend fixing the profits. However, the more appropriate scenario for purchases will be the support for 1.2999, where the market will also be able to observe profit taking on short positions at the end of the week.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

While the trade is below the level of 1.3054, the pressure on the pound will be maintained, which will lead to a further decrease in the pound to the support area of 1.2999, where I recommend fixing the profits. With the scenario of returning the pound to the resistance level of 1.3054, opening short positions in GBP / USD can be immediately on the rebound from the maximum of 1.3100.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The 30-day moving average and the 50-day average are down, indicating a continued decline in the euro in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

The lower limit of the Bollinger Bands only temporarily kept the pound from falling in the morning. As long as trade is conducted below the middle of the channel, pressure on the pound will continue.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the US session on September 28. Euro declines on weak data on inflation in the eurozone

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Serious buyers in the formation of a divergence on the MACD indicator in the morning was not, which led, after a short pause, to a further decline in EUR / USD. The pressure was also created due to weak data on inflation in the euro area. At the moment, you can count on growth in the area of support 1.1574 when forming a false breakdown there, but it is best to open long positions for a rebound from the minimum of 1.1532. The main task of buyers for the second half of the day, except for the retention of the level of 1.1574, will be a return to the resistance of 1.1615.

To open short positions on EUR / USD you need:

Bears remain in the market, and the repeated test of support 1.1574 will also lead to its breakdown, which will open a direct road to a minimum in the area of 1.1532, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of euro growth in the second half of the day, short positions can be returned immediately to the rebound from resistance 1.1615 and 1.1648.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The 30-day moving average and the 50-day average are down, indicating a continued decline in the euro in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

The lower boundary of the Bollinger bands only for a while kept the euro from falling in the morning. As long as trade is conducted below the middle of the channel, pressure on the euro will continue.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR and GBP: inflation in the euro area is a problem for the ECB. Italian government increases the budget deficit

The European currency continued its decline against the US dollar against the background of the Fed raising interest rates, as well as news that the Italian government raised the target level of the budget deficit, which was so feared by many experts.

Weak data on inflation in the euro area, which only at first glance reached the target level, also led to the formation of pressure on the euro.

The Government of Italy

As I noted above, today, it became known about the increase in the level of the Italian budget deficit for the next year. The new populist government of Italy went to such measures in order to fulfill all its election promises that were voiced during the campaign. This way of solving problems goes completely against the rules and policies of the authorities of the European Union, which will lead to even more confrontation and intensification of the political crisis in Italy.

According to the data, the budget deficit has been increased to 2.4% of GDP, which is three times the target level planned by the previous government.

The fundamental indicators of the eurozone

The eurozone inflation rate accelerated in September, exceeding the target value set by the ECB. However, one should remember about the indicator of core inflation, which has decreased, which will force the management of the European Central Bank to be wary of the completion of the incentive program.

According to the data, the preliminary CPI of the eurozone in September of this year, compared with the same period last year, increased by 2.1%. In August, the figure rose to 2.0%.

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Not surprisingly, the growth is directly related to the increase in energy prices, which for the year rose by 9.5% after rising by 9.2% in August.

Core inflation, which does not take into account volatile categories, in September, on the contrary, slowed down to 0.9% from 1% in August and 1.1% in September of a gentle year.

As for the situation in the German labor market, everything is in order. According to today's report by the German Federal Employment Service, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 23,000 in September this year compared with the previous month, while economists had expected a decline of 8,000. The unemployment rate in Germany fell to 5.1% in September.

The United Kingdom

The British pound ignored data on the growth of the UK economy and continued to decline gradually against the US dollar.

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According to the report, in the first half of 2018 the growth of the UK economy was the weakest over the past 7 years. National Bureau of Statistics ONS revised its outlook for economic growth in the six months of this year to 0.5% from 0.6%. On an annualized basis, GDP grew by 1% in the first half of the year.

Today, a poll was published in which more than half of the respondents were in favor of maintaining British membership in the EU. Let me remind you that the Labor Party of Great Britain quite recently took the initiative to hold a second vote on the Brexit theme, as there are deep contradictions between London and Brussels on a number of problems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD / USD: on the way to annual minimums

The New Zealand dollar last week jumped all over the market after the release of the impressive given for New Zealand's GDP growth. Traders of the pair hoped that this fact will tighten the rhetoric of the Central Bank of the country, thereby indicating more "hawkish" prospects for monetary policy. But this did not happen. The regulator did not change its position, voicing only cautious optimism. The hopes of the bulls NZD / USD were destroyed, and the New Zealander again began to decline, all the more so amid the strengthening of the American currency.

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It should be noted that the pair bulls did not foresee expectations for the September meeting of the RBNZ. According to published data, the economy of the country in quarterly terms jumped to 1% (from the previous 0.5%), and in the annual, to 2.8% (against 2, 6% in the first quarter). Positive dynamics was recorded in 15 of the 16 sectors of the economy, so the indicator was much better than forecast, and the pair NZD / USD jumped almost a hundred points in a day.

Let me remind you that at its previous meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand disappointed with its extremely "pigeon" position. The regulator said that the issue of raising the interest rate would not be considered until 2020. Prior to this, the market was oriented towards the second half of next year, therefore the changed plans of the Central Bank were unpleasantly surprised. The New Zealander finally lost his foothold and collapsed to 2.5-year lows, that is, to the base of the 65th figure.

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Then, pushing off from the level of support, "kiwi" demonstrated correctional growth, using the temporary support of the recovered indicator of business confidence in the country and subsequently, strong data on GDP growth. On the market, even talked about a larger growth, but for this, the bulls NZD / USD needed to break through the resistance level of 0.66665 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart), which was stormed four times over the past two weeks. That is why the September meeting of the RBNZ was so significant. If the regulator had returned optimism to the traders, the pair could easily pass this level of resistance and enter the 67th figure.

But the New Zealand regulator was unmoved. The current rate will not change upwards by at least until 2020, but it can be reduced if the economic situation demands. This position is attributed to RBNZ to several factors. This is the growth of the trade balance deficit, the extremely weak dynamics of the dairy products price index, the weak growth of the service sector, and the growth of trade barriers. This is not a complete list of negative factors, which was voiced at the September meeting. From positive moments, the regulator only noted: "early, preliminary signs of the growth of core inflation in the direction towards the middle of the target range." But this remark was the only one in favor of the New Zealand dollar. Therefore, the final impressions of the RBNZ meeting remained disappointing.

Of course, the southern dynamics of NZD / USD is due not only to the weakness of the New Zealand dollar, but also to the strengthening of the US currency. The Fed has made it clear that he is ready not only for the fourth round of rate hikes this year, but for the next three rises in the next year. The macroeconomic data published this week only confirmed the announced intentions.

Thus, the final estimate of US GDP growth was not revised downward (contrary to the warnings of some experts). The US economy grew by 4.2% in the second quarter, this is the highest growth rate in the last four years. Orders for durable goods also proved to be better than the forecast, although the growth of this indicator is explained by Boeing order. Without taking into account transportation, the index showed negative dynamics, has decreased to 0.1%. However, this nuance was ignored by the market, as well as a strong growth in the trade deficit in August, an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits and a decline in the housing market. Traders now prefer to see only the strengths of the US economy, not paying attention to the slowdown of some indicators.

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All this suggests that the "kiwi" has the potential to further reduce it. The key support level in this context is the price of 0.6595, this is the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. If the pair consolidates under this target, then, firstly, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bearish Parade of Lines signal, and, secondly, the price itself will be between the middle and lower lines of the BB indicator on D1. In this case, the bears of the pair will have a wide price range for further reduction, up to the base of the 65th figure, that is, to the price minimums of this year. This scenario will be realized only with the "bilateral participation" of two currencies. If pessimism about the New Zealander intensifies, and the American dollar continues to gain momentum throughout the market.

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EUR / USD: the decline in the euro can only intensify with weak data on inflation in the eurozone

The European currency and the British pound continued to decline against the US dollar after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in the US, as well as against the background of excellent fundamentals in the US economy, which were published yesterday afternoon.

Despite the fact that the US is close to the end of a soft monetary policy, demand for the US dollar will continue in the short term, as investors expect another increase in interest rates this year.

Fundamental data

As I noted above, good data on the US economy supported the dollar, which led to a fall in the pairs EUR / USD and GBP / USD.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the US economy continued to grow at a strong pace in the second quarter of this year, but a slight slowdown is expected in the third quarter of this year.

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Thus, the growth in US GDP in the second quarter of 2018 was 4.2% per annum, which fully coincided with the latest estimate, which was published in August. Economists had expected the figure to be revised upward, to 4.3% per annum.

The growth of consumer spending and the increase in exports, along with large capital investments of companies, led to the preservation of good economic growth. It is expected that the country's economy will continue to grow at a strong pace in the 3rd quarter. Today in the afternoon, there are data on consumer spending and incomes of US citizens, which need to pay special attention.

Good support for the US dollar was provided by the report on demand for durable goods, which grew in August this year due to the increase in the number of orders for aircraft. According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for durable goods in August rose by 4.5% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected an increase of 2.1%.

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As I noted above, growth was due to orders for civilian aircraft, which increased by 69.1%, while orders for cars and parts in August decreased by 1% compared with the previous month.

The US labor market remains in good order, despite the insignificant weekly number of applications for unemployment benefits. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from 16 to 22 September increased by 12,000 and amounted to 214,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 206,000.

The number of signed contracts for the sale of housing in the United States has decreased, which indicates a continued decline in activity in the housing market due to an increase in the cost of borrowing. According to the National Association of Realtors, the index of signed contracts for the sale of housing in the US on the secondary market in August this year decreased by 1.8% compared to the previous month and amounted to 104.2. Economists had expected a decline of 0.4% in August. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index fell by 2.3%.

The speech of the Fed Chairman, which was scheduled for the afternoon half yesterday, led only to the strengthening of the American dollar.

Fed Chairman Powell said that the US economy is in good shape, and unemployment and inflation are low, but not all Americans have experienced an improvement in the economic situation.

He also noted that the Federal Reserve has shown sufficient patience without raising rates for several years after the crisis to stimulate economic growth. However, at the moment, there is no longer any need to tighten with the increase in rates, and the equalization of the yield curve does not yet give grounds for believing that the probability of a recession in the next two years will be increased.

Technical picture EUR / USD

Most likely, the pressure on the European currency will continue today, and a breakthrough of the support level around 1.1620, to which I have repeatedly drawn attention, will lead to a continuation of the decline in risky assets with access to weekly lows of 1.1570 and 1.1540. The task of buyers for today will be the retention of the trading instrument above support 1.1620, which may trigger the closure of a number of short positions in the second half of the day and the growth of the euro towards resistance 1.1660.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for September 28. Wave 4 continues its construction

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on September 27, the GBP / USD currency pair declined by 90 percentage points and remained within the framework of building the expected wave c, 4. If this is true, the decline in quotations will continue with targets located near the 50.0% and 61.8% of Fibonacci levels built on the size of wave 3. An unsuccessful attempt to break through one of these marks can lead to the completion of the construction of wave 4 and the transition of the pair to the construction of a new ascending impulse wave.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3301 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (the senior grid)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.3041 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2982 - 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to build the estimated wave 4. The construction of the internal wave b is completed, so now I recommend selling the pair with targets near the marks of 1.3041 and 1.2982, based on the construction of wave c, 4. An unsuccessful attempt to break through can indicate the completion of wave 4, and in this case, I recommend closing sales and preparing for new purchases within the ascending wave 5.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for September 28. US Dollar scored a move

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Thursday, the currency pair EUR / USD lost another 100 percentage points. Thus, the pair continues to build the proposed wave 4 of the upward trend section. An unsuccessful attempt to break the level of 61.8% by Fibonacci can lead to the withdrawal of quotations from the reached lows and the completion of the construction of the entire wave. The same effect can be obtained from a rebound from the level of 76.4%. An alternative option is to further reduce the pair, which will lead to the construction of a new downward trend segment. Thus, to resume purchases, you need confirmation of the completion of wave 4.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1636 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

1.1594 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1813 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to build wave 4 with targets near the estimated levels of 1.1636 and 1.1594. Thus, I recommend selling a pair with these goals, around which you will need to look at whether there will be a breakthrough. A rebound from any of these levels may mean the end of the wave 4 construction and the pair's transition to wave 5 construction with the first goal located near the 0.0% Fibonacci level.

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GBP / USD. 28th of September. The trading system "Regression channels". The movement of the pound is now influenced by a

4-часовой таймфрейм

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -101.5654

The British pound sterling also continues to fall in price against the US currency, after the Fed meeting. True, not as fast as the euro. We have already noted more than once that in the case of the pound sterling, more factors have a bearing on the pair than in the case of the euro. There are Brexit, and the political crisis with the possible dismissal of Prime Minister Theresa May, the decisions of the Fed and the Bank of England, any comments from Donald Trump, and a trade war. Thus, it is very difficult to predict the movement of a pair even for several days ahead. Today, September 28, from the scheduled reports, there are really few important ones. In Britain, GDP will be released in the second quarter, and in the States, personal income and expenses of Americans. All. However, any information on Brexit topics, the trade war between the States and China can cause a surge of emotions in the market. Predicting the appearance of such information is almost impossible. If the last trading day of the week does not come as a surprise, then in the second half of the day, short positions can be closed due to the desire of traders to leave for the weekend with closed deals, at least in part. It will be possible to identify the beginning of the correction by turning the Heikin Ashi indicator up.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 = 1.3031

S3 - 1,3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3092

R2 = 1.3123

R3 - 1.3153

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues not too strong downward movement, as indicated by the blue bars Heikin Ashi. Thus, before the reversal of this indicator, it is recommended to support shorts with targets of 1.3031 and 1.3000.

It is recommended to open long positions no earlier than traders overcome the moving average line. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change to an upward trend, and the target for the upward movement will be the level of 1.3184.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 28th of September. The trading system "Regression channels". The dollar is growing, Trump is again displeased

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - sideways.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

СCI: -185.9057

The EUR / USD currency pair on the last trading day of the week continues its downward movement. There are no signs of the beginning of an upward correction at the moment. The pair overcame Murray's 7/8 level. The Fed meeting was left behind, only Donald Trump's comments were left behind him, who was dissatisfied with the fact that the Fed had again tightened monetary policy. Trump is easy to understand. The Fed is not under its control, respectively, in some moments, it even prevents him from managing the country as he sees fit. The increase in the key rate eventually led to the strengthening of the US dollar, with which Trump is struggling, since it is difficult to service a huge public debt with an expensive dollar. On the other hand, economically, everything is fine in the States, and even Trump admits that the rate hike is an indicator of the strength of the US economy. Today in the eurozone, a preliminary value of the consumer price index for September will be published. It is unlikely that traders will respond to this report, as this is not the final value. In the afternoon, we recommend to pay attention to the publication of changes in the levels of income and expenditure of the American population. There are no more important macroeconomic reports for today. As is often the case, on Friday, traders may begin to take profits on positions, which may lead to a purely technical correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1597

S2 - 1.1536

S3 - 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1658

R2 - 1.1719

R3 - 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move down. Thus, it is now recommended to continue to remain in short positions with the goal of 1.1597. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator up will serve as a signal for manually closing the shorts.

Overcoming the moving average line will mean a change in the tendency of the instrument to ascending. In this case, it is recommended to open purchase orders for the purpose of Murray level "+1/8" - 1.1780.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the foreign exchange market as of September 29, 2018

The dollar, which received a new charge of optimism from the Federal Reserve System, continues to strengthen, and so far, there are no reasons to stop it. Although European statistics turned out to be quite good, as the growth rate of consumer loans accelerated from 3.0% to 3.1%. But in anticipation of preliminary data on inflation, which are placed too high hopes, market participants ignored this data. Meanwhile, US statistics turned out to be multidirectional. In particular, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 28 thousand. The number of initial applications increased by 12 thousand, and repeated by 16 thousand, which, of course, raises some concerns, as next week, the report of the US Department of Labor. Also, the dynamics of changes in the number of unfinished transactions for the sale of housing has remained unchanged, and their number continues to decline by 2.3%. However, there were much more important data that supported the dollar. First of all, we are talking about orders for durable goods, so their number increased already by 4.5% with a forecast of 2.0%. Well, the final GDP data for the second quarter confirmed the fact of accelerating economic growth from 2.6% to 2.9%.

Today in the US, there are data on personal incomes and expenditures, which are not so important. However, they can have a negative impact on the dollar, as incomes should grow by 0.4%, and expenses by 0.3%. And although income growth seems to be an extremely positive phenomenon for everyone, if they grow faster than expenses, then for investors, this is the threat of a decline in consumer activity, and hence, the return on investment.

The main event of the day will be the publication of preliminary data on inflation in Europe. All kinds of media that tried to convince everyone that the Federal Commission for open market operations would not raise the refinancing rate, then plans to tighten monetary policy will reconsider, now, they rely on inflation in Europe. A number of publications have already appeared that the growth of inflation in Europe will be the reason for the rapid growth of the single European currency, and the landmarks are simply fantastic. Indeed, according to forecasts, inflation may accelerate from 2.0% to 2.1%, but until recently everyone had been waiting for it to remain unchanged. So, there are suspicions that the forecast was revised under the pressure of the media. Nevertheless, if inflation in Europe shows signs of acceleration, then the likelihood of curtailing the quantitative easing program will increase dramatically, which will provide the single European currency with tremendous support, in which case, the euro will grow to 1.1675.

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Pound, of course, will follow the single European currency, but its own statistics can give it additional strength. The final GDP data for the second quarter is likely to confirm the acceleration of economic growth from 1.2% to 1.3%, and although this should already be included in the value of the pound, given the overbought dollar, the market will respond positively to this fact. So, the pound has a high probability of growing to 1.3125.

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The ruble remains quite stable, which is caused by fears about sanctions against Iran. Moreover, the piquancy of the situation also adds the fact that even European countries are considering the possibility of working with the Islamic Republic, bypassing the US sanctions. But the nervousness caused by this issue is based on the risks of reducing the supply of oil, which pushes its cost up. In the absence of any other foreign and domestic economic factors, this supports the ruble. Given that it does not grow, it retains the potential for weakening. Thus, if the hysteria around Iran decreases slightly, the dollar will immediately begin to rise to 66.25 rubles.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on September 28. Good data on the US economy support the dollar

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Yesterday, good data on US GDP and orders for durable goods were supported by the US dollar, which led to a fall in the EUR / USD pair in the afternoon. Today, purchases in euros can be viewed when forming a divergence on the MACD indicator from the support level of 1.1620, with the main goal of recovering to the middle of the channel of 1.1645 and updating the resistance level of 1.1671, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a breakout of 1.1620, it is best to return to long positions in EUR / USD after updating the next lows of 1.1590 and 1.1558.

To open short positions on EUR / USD you need:

At the first test of support for 1.1620, a rebound up may occur, and therefore I recommend opening short positions on the breakdown of this area only on a repeated test based on updating the minimums of 1.1590 and 1.558, where it is best to take profits. In the case of EUR / USD growth in the first half of the day, short positions can be returned to the false breakdown from the resistance level of 1.1671, whereby this time, the 30-day moving average will be pulled, or to rebound from the large level of 1.1710.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The 30-day moving average and the 50-day average are down, indicating a continued decline in the euro in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

The euro can be supported by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the area of 1.1617.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Slowing inflation in the United States will make the dollar adjust

Investors once again remembered that the dollar remains not only a safe haven, but, perhaps, the only one of the main ones related to the Central Bank, which continues to steadily raise interest rates.

On Thursday, market participants began to buy the US dollar, as if recalling that several "played" its sales. As we pointed out earlier, there really are grounds for this. The first is the active position of the Fed in the issue of tightening monetary policy. The bank by its resolution, and its leader J. Powell in his speech on Wednesday, made it clear that it will definitely continue to raise rates to 2020 inclusive. The second is the tense situation in the world, both from the geopolitical and economic point of view, which forces market players to insure themselves against risks by buying not only state bonds, but other protective assets, including the US dollar.

Today, the market will focus on the publication of an important for the Fed index of the basic index on personal consumption (RFE) in the US, which clearly demonstrates the dynamics of personal consumer inflation. It is assumed that year on year, the indicator will keep its growth rate at 2.0%, but its monthly value will decrease in growth to 0.1% in August from the July increase of 0.2%. In addition, it is expected that the income of Americans last month increased by 0.4% from 0.3%, while expenses, on the contrary, decreased to 0.3% from 0.4%.

Attract attention and consumer inflation in the euro area. According to the forecast, the consumer price index (CPI) in the euro area on an annualized basis should grow to 2.1% against 2.0% in the period before. The basic consumer inflation should add 1.1% against 1.0% year on year.

How can the main currency pair react to these important published economic data? In our opinion, if the data from the US shows a slowdown, and the eurozone confirms the forecast, then we should expect local growth of the pair. But if the US statistics show a positive dynamics, and the European statistics, on the contrary, its decline, the euro / dollar pair can continue its local decline, while maintaining a period of consolidation.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above the level of 1.1635 pending the release of statistics from the euro area and the US. If it turns out to be positive for the dollar, then lowering the price below this level will lead to a fall of the pair to 1.1540. If the situation is reversed and the data from the euro zone is stronger, then the pair may recover to 1.1725.

The currency pair GBP / USD is trading above the level of 1.3065. The situation, in this case, can be similar, as with the pair of euro / dollar. The positive for the dollar will push the pair down after the decline below the level of 1.3065. Negative to its probable increase to 1.3200.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on September 28. Reports from the US supported the demand for the dollar

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair, having completed the rebound from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1791, continues the process of falling in the direction of the correction level 61.8% - 1.1605. There is no one indicator of the emerging divergences today. News from America on durable goods orders and GDP supported demand for the dollar. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the 76.4%, correction level of 1.1676.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from July 9, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, after quitting the quotes from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789, the fall continues in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Rebounding the course of the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to expect a turn in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. Fixing quotes under the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances for a further fall in the direction of the correction level 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1676 with a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 61.8% if the pair bounces off of the correction level of 1.1605.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be carried out now with the goal of 1.1605 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4%, since the pair completed closing below the level of 1.1676.

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Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for September 28th. The bullish divergence may help the pound to resume growth

4h

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Quotes of the currency pair GBP / USD made a return to the correction level of 23.6% - 1.3067. On September 28, the bullish divergence of the indicator CCI is brewing. The formation of a divergence will allow one to expect some growth of the pair in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.3316 and may coincide with a rebound from the Fibo level of 23.6%. Fixing the pair below the correction level of 23.6% will increase the likelihood of the fall continuing in the direction of the next fib level of 0.0% - 1.2662.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair continues the process of falling and performed consolidation below the Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.3101. As a result, the fall in quotations can be continued on September 28 in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.3041. Brewing divergences on the current chart are not observed. Rebounding the pair's quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2%.

The Fib net is built on extremums from September 5, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with the target of 1.3101 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 50.0% if the rebound from the Fibo level 1.3041 (hourly chart) occurs or with the target of 1.3176 if there is a closing above the Fibo 38.2%, or when rebounding at 4-hour chart from Fibo level 23.6%, especially with the formation of bullish divergence.

The currency pair GBP / USD can be sold now with a target of 1.3041 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 38.2%, as the pair completed the closure below the Fibo level of 1.3101 (hourly chart).

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Euro and pound lose ground

The dollar strengthened its position by Friday, since much of the macroeconomic data published the day before was higher than expected.

GDP growth in the second quarter was confirmed at 4.2%, while the price index instead of the expected decline from 3.2% to 3.0% rose to 3.3%, also slightly higher than the forecast was the personal consumption expenditure index PCE Core, 2.1% vs. 2.0%. The latest data somewhat dissipate concerns about the slowdown in inflation and contributes to the growth in demand for the dollar.

Also, positive should be considered the growth of orders for durable goods by 4.5%, which significantly exceeded forecasts, although, in absolute terms, growth was significantly lower, because a strong decline was observed a year ago.

At the same time, the commodity balance has established another anti-record. In August, the deficit reached 75.83 billion dollars, which is noticeably worse than forecast. There is a steady trend of slowing trade in the world, the forecasts are gloomy, as the tariff war, which affects so far a small amount of goods, increases global uncertainty.

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The yield of 10-year Treasuries so far remains at just above 3% and does not show a desire for growth, which somewhat limits the growth of the dollar. However, if long-term expectations for the rate begin to grow, for which the prerequisites are now taking shape, profitability will also go up, which will mean a decrease in demand for bonds and an increase in demand for a cash dollar.

The most significant factor that can prevent the dollar from starting its triumphal growth is the objective aspiration of Russia, China, and Europe to create a system of settlements that exclude the dollar. It is to this scenario that the entire US policy objectively pushes the world, and the first step in this direction could be the creation of a circumvention system for the US ban on trade with Iran, as the EU has already directly stated.

Eurozone

The euro fell on Thursday, responding to rising dollar expectations, as its own benchmarks in the eurozone are fairly stable and do not indicate the possibility of a strong decline in the short term.

The consumer confidence index from GfK rose in September to 10.6p against 10.5p a month earlier, optimism in the field of economy and personal incomes is obvious, despite political instability. The index corresponds to a similar study from IFO, published on Monday.

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Also, quite positive are the data on inflation in Germany, previously in September, the growth was 2.3%, this is higher than the forecast of 2.0% and gives grounds to expect that Eurostat's current report on inflation in the eurozone will be at least as good as expectations, which in the end can support the euro.

The currency pair EUR / USD remains under pressure on Friday, the probability of a decline to support 1.1590 is quite high. In the case of negative data, the movement to 1.1526 is possible.

The United Kingdom

The situation with consumer confidence in the UK is completely different, the GfK index fell to -9p in September, losing two more points in a month. Expectations for personal financial well-being are still in the positive zone, this is the last criterion that does not let inflation expectations collapse, but as for the economy as a whole, the situation here is completely different. Brexit is only six months away, the absence of a deal will lead to a drastic reduction in consumer confidence, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in consumer demand and a slowdown in the economy.

Today, updated data on GDP growth in the 2nd quarter will be published, as well as on the dynamics of investment and the balance of payments. Neutral forecasts, if there is no deterioration, the pound will get some support.

The currency pair GBP / USD can test the support for 1.3053 for strength, growth attempts will be used for new sales, the forecast for Friday is negative.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on September 28

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, after the lifting of the upward trend, we follow the downward cycle from September 24. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we follow the downward structure from September 20 and we continue the downward movement after the breakdown at 1.3040. For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, we expanded the potential for the top to a level of 0.9852. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 113.55. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price forms the potential for a downward movement from September 25 in correction from an upward trend. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key resistance for the downward movement is the level of 147.59 and the breakdown of 149.25 will have an upward tendency.

Forecast for September 28:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1699, 1.1671, 1.1652, 1.1623, 1.1605, 1.1571 and 1.1542. Here, after the lifting of the upward trend, we follow the development of a small downward cycle from September 24. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1623 - 1.1605 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the goal is 1.1571. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.1542, upon reaching which we expect a rollback upward.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1652 - 1.1671 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.1699, this level is a key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward cycle of September 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1652 Take profit: 1.1670

Buy 1.1673 Take profit: 1.1696

Sell: 1.1604 Take profit: 1.1573

Sell: 1.1568 Take profit: 1.1543

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 1.3204, 1.3149, 1.3114, 1.3040, 1.2995, 1.2957, 1.2867 and 1.2803. Here, we are following the downward structure of September 20th. The continued downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3040. In this case, the first target is 1.2995 and in the range of 1.2995 - 1.2957 is the consolidation of the price. The passage at the price range of 1.2995 - 1.2957 will lead to the development of a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.2867. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 1.2803, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.3114 - 1.3149 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3204 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3114 Take profit: 1.3147

Buy: 1.3152 Take profit: 1.3202

Sell: 1.3040 Take profit: 1.2995

Sell: 1.2993 Take profit: 1.2958

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9852, 0.9826, 0.9785, 0.9753, 0.9732, 0.9705 and 0.9675. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward cycle of September 21. The continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9785. In this case, the target is 0.9826. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.9852, upon which we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9753 - 0.9732 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9705. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the target is 0.9675.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9785 Take profit: 0.9824

Buy: 0.9827 Take profit: 0.9850

Sell: 0.9753 Take profit: 0.9733

Sell: 0.9730 Take profit: 0.9705

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 114.32, 114.00, 113.83, 113.53, 113.22, 113.01 and 112.64. Here, we are following the local ascending structure of September 13. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 133.53. In this case, the goal is 113.83, and in the range of 113.83 - 114.00 is the consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 114.32, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 113.22 - 113.01 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 112.64 and this level is a key support.

The main trend: the local upward structure of September 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 113.55 Take profit: 113.80

Buy: 114.03 Take profit: 114.30

Sell: 133.22 Take profit: 113.03

Sell: 112.99 Take profit: 112.68

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.3114, 1.3088, 1.3069, 1.3011, 1.2993 and 1.2968. Here, we are following the rising cycle of September 20th. The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.3069 - 1.3088 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the potential target of 1.3114. Near this level, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the correction. In general, the upward structure of September 20 will subsequently be considered as medium-term initial conditions.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3011 - 1.2993 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2968 and this level is a key support for the rising structure of September 20.

The main trend is the upward cycle from September 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3070 Take profit: 1.3085

Buy: 1.3090 Take profit: 1.3114

Sell: 1.3011 Take profit: 1.2995

Sell: 1.2990 Take profit: 1.2970

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7261, 0.7236, 0.7221, 0.7186, 0.7168, 0.7144 and 0.7130. Here, we are following the downward structure of September 21. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7186 - 0.7168 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7144. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.7130, after reaching which we expect consolidation in the range 0.7144 - 0.7130, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is expected in the range of 0.7221 - 0.7236 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7261 and this level is a key support.

The main trend is the downward structure of September 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7221 Take profit: 0.7234

Buy: 0.7238 Take profit: 0.7260

Sell: 0.7186 Take profit: 0.7170

Sell: 0.7166 Take profit: 0.7146

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 134.55, 133.85, 133.16, 132.29, 131.86, 131.32 and 131.02. Here, the price is in correction from the rising structure on September 10 and forms the potential for the bottom of September 25. The continuation of the movement upward, we expect after the breakdown of 133.16. In this case, the goal is 133.85, near this level is the consolidation. The potential value for the upward trend is the level of 134.55, upon reaching which we expect a pullback downwards.

The consolidated movement is possible in the range of 132.29 - 131.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 131.32 and the range of 131.32 - 131.02 is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 133.16 Take profit: 133.80

Buy: 133.90 Take profit: 134.50

Sell: 131.80 Take profit: 131.36

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 149.69, 148.17, 147.59, 146.84, 145.89, 144.86 and 144.11. Here, the descending structure of September 21 is still relevant as potential initial conditions. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 148.17 - 147.59 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the first target is 146.84. Its breakdown, in turn, will lead to a movement to 145.89 and near this level is the consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 145.89 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 144.86. We consider the level of 144.11 to be a potential value for the bottom, after which we expect a rollback to the top.

Regarding the upward movement: to the level of 149.69 we expect the formation of a pronounced structure of the initial conditions for the subsequent definition of goals.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 148.15 Take profit: 147.65

Sell: 147.55 Take profit: 146.90

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Bitcoin analysis for September 28, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found the strong breakout of the intraday support trendline in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities if you see a valid breakout of major support trendline becasue that would confirm potential downward continuation and potential finishing of the C wave (abc flat correction). Downward targets are set at the price of $6.290 and at the price of $6.075.

Support/Resistance

$6.631 – Intraday resistance

$6.500– Intraday support

$6.290 – Objective target 1

$6.075 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the European session on September 28. The pressure on the pound will be restrained in the case of

To open long positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

Strengthening the US dollar against the background of good fundamental statistics led to a decline in the GBP / USD pair. The unresolved issue of Brexit also repels new buyers. To the long positions in the pound today, it is best to return on a false breakout from the support level of 1.3054 or to rebound from the new weekly lows around 1.2999. The main task of the buyers will be a breakdown and consolidation at the level of 1.3100, which will limit the downward potential and align the picture in favor of buyers, which will lead to the renewal of the high of 1.3158, where fixing profits are recommended.

To open short positions for GBP / USD pair, you need:

An unsuccessful fastening above the resistance level of 1.3100 with a return to it and a rebound from the 30-day moving average will be a direct signal for the opening of short positions in the pound, and the main target will be the area of 1.3054. A consolidation below it will lead to a larger sellout of GBP / USD with a yield to the lows in the area of 1.2999, where fixing profits are recommended. If the pound is higher than the 1.3100 resistance in the first half of the day, you can immediately return to sales at a rebound from the high of 1.3158.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading moved under the moving average, which is directed down, indicating a continuation of the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands

In case of further reduction, the support of the pound may be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the area of 1.3052.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Analysis of Gold for September 28, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,180.30 and reached my both yesterday's targets. According to the H1 time – frame, I found potential exhausted sellers and hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I also found supply trendline at the price of $1,185.00 and my advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the trendline to confirm a further upward movement. If you see the breakout, watch for buying opportunities with the upward targets at the price of $1,190.00 and at the price of $1,200.15.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 28, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3025 and met my first target. According to the H1 time – frame, I found end of the upward correction in the background and the breakout of support trendline, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a successful re-test of resistance after the breakout, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2960 and at the price of 1.2900.

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 28, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1750. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Last week, another bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750) which resulted in a daily shooting-star bearish candlestick reflecting evident signs of bearish rejection.

As for the bearish side of the market to be dominant, the EUR/USD pair should be able to push below 1.1520. First bearish target would be located around 1.1420.

Otherwise, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.1520-1.1750) if no strong bearish pressure is applied against 1.1520.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 28, 2018

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On September 13, the GBP/USD pair was testing the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090. Since then, the pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) also corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Currently, this price zone turned to become a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish price action.

However, on H4 chart, the market failed to maintain its uptrend within the depicted bullish channel on H4 chart. The lower limit of the depicted channel (which came to meet the GBP/USD pair around 1.3190) failed to offer sufficient bullish demand.

As expected, the price level of 1.3190 offered significant bearish rejection (the backside of the broken bullish channel).

Therefore, the GBP/USD short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3010 (50% Fibonacci level) where price action should be watched.

Moreover, any decline below 1.3010 (50% Fibo level) will probably invalidate the DAILY bullish scenario for the short-term. Hence, the pair would have short-term bearish targets around 1.2960 and 1.2900.

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Forecast for EUR / USD pair as of September 28, 2018

Forecast for EUR / USD pair as of September 28, 2018

Markets agreed that the rate on the euro is hasty and premature. On the second day after the rate increase by the US Central Bank, investors connected to work in this direction.

EUR / USD pair

On the second day after the rate hike, the US Central Bank investors have joined the work in this direction. The dollar strengthened on all fronts as the euro fell by 98 points, gold fell by 0.92% and a decreased in a number of commodity futures, which are most sensitive to the dollar rate (wheat, cocoa, non-ferrous metals). The US statistics came out mixed, but the main indices were quite satisfactory: the final estimate of GDP for the second quarter remained at 4.2% and the volume of orders for durable goods increased by 4.5% in August against the forecast of 1.9 %.

News from Italy came out about the delay in the adoption of the budget for the next year. Rumors of the country's intention to withdraw from the European Union grew stronger.

Today, the inflation indicators will hit the euro area as the base CPI for September is expected to increase from 1.0% to 1.1% and the total CPI is projected to be at 2.1% against 2.0% in August.

According to the US, the data on income/expenditure of consumers for August includes the expected increase of personal income to increase by 0.4% and expenses by 0.3%. On the general geopolitical background of the strengthening of the dollar, investors will prefer to work out the American data.

The first goal of the euro decrease is the support of the embedded price channel line of 1.1502. analytics5badb2bbc4ccd.png

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/JPY for September 28, 2018

GBP/JPY has been volatile and corrective since the price rejected off the 149.50 area with an impulsive bearish daily close. JPY has been fundamentally quite solid recently which made the price climb against GBP, while GBP is showing weak performance in light of the recent economic reports.

Today Tokyo Core CPI report was published with an increase to 1.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.9%, Unemployment Rate decreased to 2.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.4%, Prelim Industrial Production increased to 0.7% from the previous value of -0.2% but failed to meet the expectation of 1.5%, and Retail Sales report was published with an increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 1.5% which was expected to be at 2.2%.

On the GBP side, today Current Account report was published with a decrease to -20.3B from the previous figure of -15.7B which was expected to be at -19.4B, Final GDP report was published unchanged as expected at 0.4% and Revised Business Investment report was published with a decrease to -0.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5%.

Meanwhile, JPY is fundamentally quite firm, while GBP is struggling amid downbeat economic data. If JPY manages to sustain the fundamental wellness in the coming days, further bearish momentum in this pair is expected which may weaken GBP further in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has dropped lower quite consistently recently which could extend weakness towards 147.00 area before it starts to push higher with a target towards 149.50-150.00 resistance area. As the price remains above 147.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 147.00-80

RESISTANCE: 149.00-50

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 28, 2018

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Overview

The USD/CHF pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.9714. The support is found at the level of 0.9714, which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in the H4 time frame.

The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.9714, while immediate resistance is seen at 0.9813. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.9769. So, buy above the level of 0.9769 with the first target at 0.9813 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 0.9860.

Also, the level of 0.9860 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/CHF pair to climb from 0.9769 to 0.9860 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 09714, a further decline to 0.9553 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 28, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 0.6635 and 0.6616. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.6635, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.6635. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.6635/0.6616 In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.6635) with the first target at the level of 0.6696. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.6696. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.6696) to test it. Next objective will be targted at the level of 0.6728. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.6616.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for September 28, 2018

EUR/AUD is currently quite impulsive inside the bearish bias which has lead the price at the edge of 1.6050 area. EUR has been the dominant currency in the pair, which is following the overall bullish trend. However, as the reports from Australia supported the bearish price swings in the pair, certain counter pressure is being observed now.

EUR is struggling to gain momentum over AUD amid the mixed economic reports which lead to indecision for a certain period, evolving into bearish pressure. Today French Consumer Spending report was published with an increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.3%, French Prelim CPI decreased to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to increase to -0.1%, Spanish Flash CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 2.2%, and German Unemployment Change revealed upbeat figure with a decrease to -23k from the previous figure of -10k which was expected to be at -9k.

On the AUD side, the economic calendar contains few macroeconomic reports from Australia throughout the week. Today AUD Private Sector Credit report was published with an increase to 0.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.4%.

Meanwhile, positive economic report fro Australia helped the currency to regain momentum while EUR is still struggling amid the mixed and indecisive economic data. In the coming days, if Australia manages to publish better economic reports, further gain on the AUD side is expected.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.6050 area from where a certain bearish momentum is expected to lead the price towards 1.5900 support area before the price may bounce higher in the process. The long-term trend is still bullish and after certain correction the bullish trend is expected to continue to push price much higher. As the price remains above 1.5900, the bullish bias is expected to continue in this pair while being pressurized by the bears in the process for a certain period.

SUPPORT: 1.6050, 1.5900

RESISTANCE: 1.6350

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 28, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair has broken resistance at the level of 1.3003, which acts as support now. So, the pair has already formed minor support at 1.3003. The strong support is seen at the level of 1.3003 because it represents the weekly pivot. In the H1 time frame, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.6692. Buy above the minor support of 1.3003 with a target at 1.3045 then continue towards next objective of 1.3075 (this price is coinciding with the double top). On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (1.3003), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2958.

Comment:

Also, the double bottom is seen at the level of 1.2884. If the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CAD is in a downtrend.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for September 28, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite impulsive in the bearish bias recently which is expected to lead the price towards 0.8850 area in the process. Recently GBP has been the dominant currency in the pair against EUR. GBP pushed the price lower despite the macroeconomic reports published this week in the eurozone.

Despite confusion amid the mixed data this week, EUR has lost ground against GBP in the process. Today French Consumer Spending report was published with an increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.3%, French Prelim CPI decreased to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to increase to -0.1%, Spanish Flash CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 2.2%, and German Unemployment Change had positive outcome with a decrease to -23k from the previous figure of -10k which was expected to be at -9k.

On the other hand, today the UK Current Account report was published with a decrease to -20.3B from the previous figure of -15.7B which was expected to be at -19.4B, Final GDP report was published unchanged as expected at 0.4%, and Revised Business Investment report was published with a decrease to -0.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5%.

Meanwhile, despite worse economic readings in comparison to the data from the eurozone, GBP is still quite stable with the gains which indicates the ongoing momentum in the pair despite the fundamentals. Though EUR has been quite mixed which lead the price to lose certain momentum, any positive data from the UK in the coming days may lead to further bearish pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. After breaking below 0.8950 with a daily close, the price has been quite impulsive and non-volatile indside the bearish bias which recently broke and retested the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. As the price remains below 0.8950 area, the bearish pressure is expected to continue with a target towards 0.8850 and later towards 0.8700 area in the future.

SUPPORT: 0.8850, 0.8700

RESISTANCE: 0.8950, 0.9050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for September 28, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair will be probably continue to rise from the level of 0.7233 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7233 which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the AUD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7260. So, buy above the level of 0.7260 with the first target at 0.7309 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7346. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7379 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7233, a further decline to 0.7153 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for September 27. The pound is ready for a new fall

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on September 26, the GBP / USD currency pair lost several points, but the general withdrawal of quotes from the previously achieved highs allows to assume the completion of the internal corrective wave b in the assumed 4. If this assumption is true, then the quotes decrease will continue with targets near the levels of 50.0% and 61.8% of Fibonacci. There are no grounds to suppose the complication of wave 3 now. Wave 4 assumes a pronounced 3-wave structure.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3301 - 161.8% of Fibonacci (the senior grid)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.3041 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

1.2982 - 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair continues to build the proposed corrective wave 4. The rollback to the top is completed, so now I recommend selling the pair with targets near the marks of 1.3041 and 1.2982 counting on the construction of wave c, 4. A failed attempt to break one of the marks will indicate the readiness of the pair to build a new upward wave with targets above the 33 figure.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of GBP / JPY pair for the week of September 27 Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of GBP /

The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The last wave of this scale completes the downtrend of the daily timeframe. The wave is not complete.

The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The rising wave from August 15 formed a correctional part (B) in a larger model. Minimum levels passed and the wave lengthened. The most likely zone of completion is within the boundaries of the nearest zone of potential large-scale reversal.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The descending section from September 21 corrects the bullish wave of the higher timeframe. The wave entered the final phase.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Sales can be used for trading on the lowest timeframe. or inter-day trading, short-term purchases of the pair may be relevant. Advocates of long-term transactions are prudent to refrain from trading deals until the entire upward wave is completed.

Resistance zones:

- 150.00 / 150.50

Support zones:

- 145.60 / 145.10

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

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