BITCOIN Analysis for January 17, 2019

Bitcoin has been consolidating and correcting itself at the edge of $3,600 area for a while now. The price has been rejected off the $3,600 support area with strong bullish momentum but the impulsive pressure is still not sufficient to push higher above $3,700 i.e. above 200 EMA. The price is being contained by Kumo Cloud, Tenkan, and 20 EMA resistance in the intraday chart which indicates that the bears are currently holding the upper hand over the bulls. Though the bias is still bullish as the price remains above $3,000 area with a daily close, the bullish pressure can only sustain its momentum if the price breaks above $4,000 area with a daily close. A break above Kumo Cloud resistance or $3,700 is a must for the current price to reach $4,000 or higher.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 3,700, 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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USD / CAD: "Loonie" risks becoming hostage to the policies of the Fed and the Bank of Canada

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If last year the Loonie became one of the outsiders among the currencies of the G10 countries, having lost 8% against the American, then at the beginning of this year, the CAD managed to win back a few losses.

The rebound in oil prices from 18-month lows, the resumption of trade negotiations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom, the Fed's desire to take a pause in the process of tightening monetary policy, as well as the longest "off" the US government allowed the "bears" on USD / CAD to go on the attack. However, the political risks that are likely to manifest themselves in a short time may negate all their efforts.

JP Morgan experts expect that by mid-2019, the USD / CAD pair will rise to the level of 1.35.

"We proceed from the fact that there may be difficulties with the ratification of the new trade agreement between Washington and Ottawa due to the split US Congress and the continuing partial shutdown of the US government," representatives of the financial institute noted.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange strategists Morgan Stanley recommends selling USD / CAD with a target of 1.28 because the Fed is going to take a more cautious position.

According to them, the discrepancy between the Fed and Bank of Canada rates, as well as the latter's desire to raise the interest rate from the current 1.75% to a neutral level of 2.5-3.5%, should support the loonie. However, the Canadian Central Bank is unlikely to act proactively. At least this is evidenced by the fact that the regulator intends to bring the rate to a neutral level for a long time, which does not exclude the presence of a pause. Thus, if the Fed and the Bank of Canada approached it, in the medium term, consolidation of the USD / CAD pair in the range of 1.3-1.36 seems to be the most plausible option.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on January 17

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we expect further downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 1.1375 - 1.1358 and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price has issued a local structure for the top of January 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 1.2905. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the upward cycle development from January 10 is expected to continue after the price passes the range of 0.9930 - 0.9951. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are currently following the development of the upward structure from January 10 and the level of 108.21 is the key support. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15 and the level of 123.05 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price has set the local structure on January 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 141.05.

Forecast for January 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1496, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1376, 1.1358, 1.1321 and 1.1291. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of January 10. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.1376 - 1.1358. In this case, the target is 1.1321. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1291, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.1404 - 1.1428 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1469 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1406 Take profit: 1.1426

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1466

Sell: 1.1358 Take profit: 1.1324

Sell: 1.1320 Take profit: 1.1294

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3118, 1.3057, 1.2973, 1.2905, 1.2821, 1.2779, 1.2720 and 1.2661. Here, we follow the formation of the local ascending structure of January 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2905. In this case, the goal is 1.2973 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2973 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3057. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3118, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2821 - 1.2779 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2720 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.2661.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2905 Take profit: 1.2970

Buy: 1.2975 Take profit: 1.3055

Sell: 1.2820 Take profit: 1.2780

Sell: 1.2777 Take profit: 1.2724

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0034, 0.9984, 0.9951, 0.9930, 0.9897, 0.9877 and 0.9848. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of January 10. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9930 - 0.9951 and the breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect to move to the level of 0.9984, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0034, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9897 - 0.9877 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9848 and this level is the key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9950

Buy: 0.9952 Take profit: 0.9982

Sell: 0.9896 Take profit: 0.9878

Sell: 0.9875 Take profit: 0.9850

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 109.74, 109.57, 109.27, 109.08, 108.67, 108.49, 108.21 and 107.76. Here, the next targets for the top are determined from the ascending structure on January 10th. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 109.08 - 109.27 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level 109.57 and in the range of 109.57 - 109.74 is the consolidation.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.67 - 108.50 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.21 and this level is the key support. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the goal is 107.76.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.08 Take profit: 109.25

Buy: 109.29 Take profit: 109.56

Sell: 108.49 Take profit: 108.23

Sell: 108.18 Take profit: 107.80

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.33.95, 1.3320., 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, the situation is in equilibrium and in the range of 1.3201 - 1.3150, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3065, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3271 - 1.3320 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the equilibrium state of the structure.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3271 Take profit: 1.3320

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3395

Sell: 1.3201 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3145 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7391, 0.7313, 0.7270, 0.7238, 0.7180, 0.7152 and 0.7113. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7238 - 0.7270 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.7313, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7391 and we expect a movement to this level after the breakdown of 0.7315.

The consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.7180 - 0.7152 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7113 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7238 Take profit: 0.7270

Buy: 0.7273 Take profit: 0.7312

Sell: 0.7180 Take profit: 0.7155

Sell: 0.7150 Take profit: 0.7120

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we continue to follow the rising structure of January 3. At the moment, the price is in a deep correction. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 125.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 123.74 - 123.05 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 122.03, up to this level, we expect clearance of expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

Sell: 123.05 Take profit: 122.10

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 143.91, 142.82, 142.16, 141.04, 139.49, 138.91, 138.21 and 137.17. Here, we determined the subsequent targets for the top from the local ascending structure on January 15th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 141.04. In this case, the target is 142.16 and in the range of 142.16 - 142.82 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 143.91, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 139.49 - 138.91 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 138.21 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have a downward trend. In this case, the goal is 137.17.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.05 Take profit: 142.05

Buy: 142.16 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.45 Take profit: 138.93

Sell: 138.89 Take profit: 138.25

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 17, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

Last week, a recent attempt of bullish breakout above 1.1520 (upper limit of the depicted movement channel) was executed. However, significant signs of bearish rejection were expressed below 1.1520 and 1.1420 on the daily charts.

This renders the recent bullish breakout above 1.1420 and 1.1520 as a false breakout. Hence, any bullish pullback towards 1.1420 can be considered as a valid SELL entry for intraday traders.

The current bearish decline below the key-level of 1.1400 encourages more sideway consolidations that may extend down to 1.1250 again where bullish rejection can be anticipated for a valid BUY entry.

On the other hand, in case a successful bullish breakout above 1.1420 is achieved again, this enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.1520, 1.1600 (October's High).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 17, 2019

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated around the price levels of 1.3060, 1.2920 and 1.2800 maintaining movement within the depicted H4 bearish channel (The RED one).

Shortly after, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500 where bullish recovery (Bullish Head & Shoulders pattern) could take place on December 12.

Hence, a successful bullish breakout above the depicted bearish channel was demonstrated on December 24.

Last week, another bullish breakout above 1.2720 was attempted to resume the bullish scenario of the market aiming towards 1.2880 and 1.3000.

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.2800 (Mid-Range) and 1.2880 (the upper limit of the depicted range) should be maintained on the H4 chart.

Strong bullish breakout above 1.2880 is mandatory for Buyers as a valid BUY signal to look for further bullish advancement towards 1.3020 where the depicted downtrend (in Blue) comes to meet the GBP/USD pair.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.2800 invalidates the bullish scenario bringing the GBP/USD pair again into sideway consolidations that may extend down towards 1.2720 (Lower limit of the depicted consolidation range).

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on January 17. Traders do not know what to do with the pound

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The British pound remained bargained in the side channel in the first half of the day, with the prospect of further growth after the British Prime Minister Theresa May managed to keep her post after another vote because of a vote of no confidence. Purchases of GBP / USD today can be seen after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2812 or a rebound from the support of 1.2743. However, the main task remains a breakthrough above the resistance of 1.2880-90, which will resume the uptrend and will reach the highs of 1.2964 and 1.3016.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.28800-90 will be the first signal for opening short positions in the pound, but the main task will be the breakdown and consolidation under the support of 1.2812, which will collapse GBP / USD to minima in the area of 1.2743 and 1.2672, where I recommend to fix the profit. In the case of a further uptrend, it is best to consider short positions from the new highs of 1.2964 and 1.3016.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade returned to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility remains low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP/USD short-term technical levels with Linear Channels and trading recommendations for January 17, 2019

Blue channel is based on the price movement of yesterday.

Violet channel is based on the previous two-day consolidations.

Yellow channel is based on the previous three-day consolidations.

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The recent bullish movement of the GBP/USD which was initiated around 1.2700 has ceased to be dominant since Yesterday.

Lack of enough bullish momentum is demonstrated on the chart, so that the recent movement has turned into sideway consolidations.

The pair is currently moving within the depicted narrow sideway channel (BLUE channel) waiting for a bullish breakout above 1.2880-1.2900.

Bullish breakout above 1.2900 enables quick bullish movement towards 1.3000 where the upper limit of the movement channels are located (Intraday Resistance).

Looking to the downside, the GBP/USD pair has intraday support located around 1.2855 which corresponds to the middle range of the Yellowish channel. Any bearish pullback can be considered for valid BUY positions.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.2850 (Mid-Range Support) enables further bearish decline towards 1.2700 where the lower limits of the depicted Violet and Yellow channels are located.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 17, 2019

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BTC did a false breakout of the 2-day low at the price of $3.530, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I have found a strong reversal bar (reversal up-thrust), which is a sign that smart money did shake out the weak trading money. I have also found the breakout of the supply trendline, which is another sign of strength. Watch for buying opportunities.

Trading recommendations for today: We are long BTC from $3.575 with the upward targets at the prrice of $3.647 and $3.687 and a protective stop below the level of $3.520.

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on January 16. Data on inflation in the euro zone supported the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Despite the report on inflation in the euro area, which coincided with the forecasts of economists, euro buyers managed to hold above the support level of 1.1375, which led to a resumption of demand in EUR / USD. The main task of buyers is to return to the resistance level of 1.1411, which will lead to a larger upward correction in the region of the maximum of 1.1451 and 1.1490, where I recommend fixing the profits. Weak data on the US labor market can help the bulls with correction. In the case of a repeated decline in the support area of 1.1375 in the afternoon, long positions are best returned to the rebound from the minimum of 1.1343.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The sellers did not manage to return to the support level of 1.1375, and for the second half of the day, their main task is to break through this range, which will lead to a larger EUR / USD sale with a minimum of 1.1343 and 1.1312, where I recommend fixing the profits. If, after the test of a minimum of 1.1375, a quick downward movement is not formed, as it was today in the first half of the day, I recommend closing short positions, since a large upward correction in euro can be formed from this level. When the growth scenario is above the resistance of 1.1411, against the background of weak fundamental statistics for the USA, it is best to consider short positions in EUR / USD on a rebound from 1.1451.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-moving averages, which indicates that the downward trend in the market continues.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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GBP/USD analysis for January 17, 2019

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GBP/USD finaly made a breakout of the trading range (resistance) at the price of 1.2900 and we got confirmation to go long. There is strong impulsive movement in the background, which is a sign that recent trading range was more resting before new push higher. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities.

Trading recommendations for today: We are long GBP/USD from 1.2900 with upward targets at 1.2960 and 1.3042 and protective stop at 1.2820.

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EUR/USD analysis for January 17, 2019

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Recently, EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1400. According to the H4 time – frame, I have found that there is a fake breakout of the yesterday's low at the price of 1.1377, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found that there is the rejection of the lower Keltner band and the hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of the strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities.

Trading recommendations for today: We will go long on EUR/USD at 1.14003 with the targets at 1.1453 and 1.1490 and protective stop below 1.1370.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 17, 2019

Overview:

The trend of USD/CAD movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3169 and 1.3291. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.3169 and 1.3092 respectively.

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Simplified wave analysis of #USDX (US Dollar Index) for January 17

Large-scale graphics:

The short-term trend of the dollar index since February last year has been the top. The wave structure is incomplete. Reached a powerful level of resistance.

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Medium scale graphics:

From November 11, dollar quotes form a bearish wave, the potential of which is close to exhaustion. In a larger model, the plot took the place of an intermediate correction. Reached upper bound of the target zone.

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Small scale graphics:

From January 10, the ascending segment is formed on the graph, which potentially could be the first part of the reversal construction.

Forecast and recommendations:

The weakening of the dollar is temporary. In the coming weeks, the current wave should be fully completed. The reversal of the vector of movement of the dollar will lead to the beginning of an active decline in the rates of national currencies in the major pairs.

Resistance zones:

- 96.90 / 97.10

Support areas:

- 95.40 / 95.20

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 17, 2019

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.2824 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.2745. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame.

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Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.2824. So, buy above the level of 1.2824 with the first target at 1.2932 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.3019 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.2932, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.3019 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2745, a further decline to 1.2624 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.

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Oil becomes cheaper against the background of record production in the US

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Oil quotes are reduced after the publication of reports by the US Department of Energy on the approach of oil production in the country to a record level of 12 million barrels per day.

On Thursday, as of 10:47 London time, the price of Brent crude oil fell by 0.90% to $ 60.77 a barrel, WTI crude oil lost 1.05% of its value, falling to $ 51.76 a barrel.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that US oil production for the week ending January 11 reached a record high of 11.9 million barrels per day.

Since the beginning of the year, oil production in the United States has increased by 2.4 million barrels per day, which raises serious concerns about the oversaturation of the market.

In addition, market participants are also concerned about the decline in oil demand due to the slowdown in the global economy, which, according to some experts, could lead to a global recession.

At the same time, the collapse of oil prices is hampered by an agreement to reduce the production of the largest oil-producing countries of OPEC and the states that joined it, including Russia.

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The position of the dollar is consistently high, there is no alternative to the American

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The dollar took a short breather but was still serious about major currencies, while the pound stabilized after the government of British Prime Minister Theresa May won a vote of no-confidence. As for the euro, the dollar will grow due to constant concerns about the eurozone economy, which affected the single European currency. The data this week showed that Germany barely avoided a recession in the second half of 2018, and ECB head Mario Draghi warned that the eurozone economy was weaker than expected. This is likely to be the reason for the dollar to continue to grow against the euro, as it has been for the last five sessions when it rose by about 1.5 percent.

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You should also pay attention to the message that the US federal prosecutor is investigating the case of Huawei and may soon file an indictment on the fear that the closure of the US government will begin to affect the economy. Now there are many factors in favor of the completion of the Fed rate increase cycle, and some even talk about the need to cut rates this year. The next meeting on monetary policy will be held on January 29-30. It is worth noting that American business has become less optimistic in recent months, which supports the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that patience is now needed with regard to raising interest rates.

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Hungarian forint can press euro - ING

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According to the currency experts of the Dutch bank ING, at the moment market players are best placed on a decline in the rate of the single European currency, having sold it in relation to the Hungarian forint.

The strategy of the analysts of the bank ING is as follows: they recommend expressing a short position in the EUR / HUF pair using 12-month forward contracts. Recommendations of financial institutions experts are based on a fall in the rate from 324.20 (the so-called entry point into a short position) to the level of 310. If the forecast is correct, this transaction will bring 4.5% of profits, experts are sure

The calculations of ING bank strategists are based on a high probability of growth in Bubor rates, according to which a significant forint is expected to strengthen against the single European currency. According to a number of experts, the Central Bank of Hungary is strengthening its position in the global market, thereby increasing investor confidence in the forint.

The recommendations of ING experts are also caused by the strengthening of the authority of the National Bank of Hungary against the background of the "pigeon" rhetoric of world regulators. Analysts believe that the prospects for the Hungarian currency are very good, thanks to which the market may begin to put the March rate hike in prices. In the near future, Bubor rates should rise, which will positively affect the forint rate.

ING analysts believe the market positioning in the Hungarian currency is undoubtedly "bearish", noting that the forint has excellent potential for growth due to a decrease in short positions. Strategists financial institutions believe that a positive impact on the dynamics of the forint will have a surplus on the current account of the Hungarian government.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: Pound believes in Theresa May?

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The situation around Brexit continues to be one of the central themes of the financial market.

On the eve, the British parliamentarians have expressed confidence in the country's cabinet of ministers headed by Theresa May. Now, the government has to determine its next steps and to submit a "Plan B" to the House of Commons already on January 21 for the country's withdrawal from the European Union.

It should be noted that the Prime Minister has not yet withdrawn from Parliament her version of the deal with the EU and seems to be going to put it back to vote in February. However, it is not clear whether the text of the agreement will be amended and whether Brussels will go on new negotiations with London.

Meanwhile, one of the scenarios suggests that the date of initiation of the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty, and accordingly, the date of exit from the EU can be postponed to a later period.

It is possible that T. May counts precisely on this scenario, hoping to win some more time in order to convince parliamentarians to vote for her proposed deal.

Despite the fact that the chances of success of this enterprise are not so high, it is necessary to recognize that only under the leadership of the current Prime Minister, London will be able to count on an orderly and controlled Brexit. At least, this is evidenced by the dynamics of the British currency, which has recently demonstrated remarkable resilience.

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Specialists of the financial company Standard Chartered believe that the pound sterling can receive wide support if it is officially announced the extension of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

HSBC experts, in turn, expect that in the case of a "soft" Brexit, a "British" may rise against the dollar to $ 1.37, if the country remains in the EU, up to $ 1.55, and in the "hard" scenario, by contrast, risks up to $ 1.10.

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The resumption of the fall of the markets is not far off

Previously, we have not once pointed out that global markets, and with them, investors, are under intense pressure from an uncertainty factor that has not disappeared anywhere.

Despite the fact that world central banks, first of all, the Fed and the ECB, have begun to declare, in the case of the European regulator, the desire to begin normalization of monetary policy, and the US Central Bank has already been conducting this process over the past few years, it seems that they are confronted that the tightening of monetary policies threatens to escalate into a new economic downturn, behind which a new crisis looms, will be forced to continue to pursue, after all, a soft economic policy.

The latest ECB balance sheet data presented clearly indicates that after a loud announcement of the end of quantitative easing last December, the regulator's balance continues to grow. This indicates that the bank continues the process of buying assets to support a weakening European economy. It seems that our thesis, presented in yesterday's article, that the economy of the eurozone is beginning to lose its strength and that in the future could turn into a destructive vicious circle, is beginning to come true.

The words of M. Draghi, President of the ECB, that economic growth in the eurozone weakened more than expected, indicate that the regulator will have to continue to pursue the covert redemption of government bonds, pumping up the local financial system in an attempt to prevent an economic collapse. It turns out, by the same token, that the Central Bank, by its policy of saving everything and everyone in the region accountable to it, fell into a trap. The weakening of economic growth in Europe against the background of the same, but already global, process will again force further incentive measures, which ultimately will put the local economy on a needle of regular financial injections. But it should be understood that this process cannot last forever, once it ends, which will be the strongest blow to the eurozone economy, the common unity of Europe. In the future, it will be possible to observe the worst financial crisis, which, in our opinion, will stop the project of a united Europe and lead to the disintegration of the eurozone as an economic entity.

As for the immediate prospects, in our opinion, high volatility in the markets will continue, and the process of slipping the global economy into a new recession will not stop neither the agreement between China and the US on trade, nor Brexit's permission, nor the pumping of financial systems with liquidity.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD remains under pressure against the background of the continuing risk of an economic downturn in the eurozone. If the pair consolidates below the level of 1.1385, it may continue to fall to 1.1345, and then to 1.1315.

The currency pair AUD / USD is losing momentum against the background of high risks of a continued decline in China's economic growth and the world economy as a whole. In this situation, under pressure, there are high-yielding currencies, which include the Australian dollar. Given the negative sentiment in the market, we can expect the pair to continue to decline to 0.7100 after overcoming the level of 0.7150.

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EUR and GBP: Theresa May won another victory. Pound and euro are prone to decline

The British pound ignored Theresa May's victory yesterday, and the euro continued to decline gradually against the US dollar amid weak fundamental statistics on inflation, which binds the hands of the European Central Bank.

Great Britain

After a disastrous vote on Brexit in the British Parliament, Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn initiated a vote of no confidence due to the ineffectiveness of the government in agreeing to a British exit from the EU. As it became known, British Prime Minister Theresa May yesterday won this vote. May won with 325 votes for and 306 against. However, the market reaction was very restrained on this news, and GBP / USD remained bargained in the side channel. Now the British Prime Minister has until January 21 to prepare an alternative version of the Brexit deal, since it is clear that the old version will not exactly pass the parliament even on the second ballot.

Many experts and politicians expect that ultimately the UK's exit date, scheduled for March 29, will be changed, giving the government more time to negotiate a number of concessions with representatives of the European Union.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD currency pair, for the new powerful impulse growth, a breakthrough of the resistance area of 1.2890-1.2900 is required, which will lead to the formation of a new trend with the updating of monthly highs of 1.3020 and 1.3130. If in the near future the bulls fail to get above the range of 1.2890-1.2900, a downward correction in the trading instrument is likely, which will return the pair to the lows of 1.2750 and 1. 2620.

USA

The data, which came out yesterday in the US, did not put pressure on the US dollar, which retains an advantage in a pair with the euro.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the cost of imported goods in the United States declined this December. The fall was due to lower oil prices.

Thus, import prices in December fell by 1.0% compared with the previous month, while economists had expected prices in December to fall by 1.5%. As I noted above, the decline is entirely due to oil prices, which in December fell by 11.6% after falling 16% a month earlier. Excluding energy, import prices rose by 0.3%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, import prices fell 0.6%.

Data on the mood of home builders in the United States also did not attract the attention of traders.

According to a report by the National Association of Home Builders NAHB, the housing market index in January 2019 rose to 58 points from 56 points in December, while economists predicted that in January, the index would be 56 points. The NAHB noted that the mood of homebuilders has improved due to a slight decrease in mortgage rates for US residents.

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Yesterday another representative of the Fed spoke. Esther George said that the Fed should be more patient in raising interest rates to avoid overheating and prolonging economic growth, and recent market volatility is a factor in the spotlight that should induce a pause in the rate hike cycle.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the bears are trying to resume the downward movement in the market after the unsuccessful attempt of the bulls to return to the game. A break of 1.1375 may lead to a larger decrease in risky assets with the upgrading of 1.1340 and 1.1310 lows. In the case of another false breakdown in the area of 1.1375, bulls can willingly return, which will lead to a powerful upward impulse with a test and a breakthrough of the intermediate resistance of 1.1415 and the main goal of updating the maximum of 1.1450.

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Simplified wave analysis of GBP / JPY for January 17

Large-scale graphics:

The direction of the price trend of the cross since February of last year looks at the "south" of the chart. A large scale support zone has been reached. The wave structure looks complete.

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Medium scale graphics:

The descending section of the chart from November 8 completed the wave of the trend of a larger TF. Bullish price movement claims at least a correction.

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Small-scale graphics:

The rising wave of January 3 has a reversal potential, developing as a classic impulse. A downward pullback is expected in the coming days.

Forecast and recommendations:

The coming weeks will be favorable for tool purchases. At the end of each oncoming traffic, it is recommended to track the reversal signals.

Resistance zones:

- 143.90 / 144.40

- 140.80 / 141.30

Support areas:

- 138.00 / 137.50

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 17. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May miraculously managed to keep the chair premiere

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 62.3314

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, January 17, continues to be near its local maximums. No reaction to Theresa May's defeat in Parliament and the failure of her Brexit plan came from traders. Which is very surprising. Late yesterday evening, a new vote was held in the British Parliament, this time about the vote of no confidence in Theresa May, which was initiated by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn. However, even here the markets were in for a surprise. With a minimum margin, the vote ended with the victory of the current prime minister. What do we have in the end? The Checkers plan failed. Theresa May has remained at the helm, there will be no new parliamentary elections yet, there is no new Brexit plan, Brexit itself should take place no later than March 29, the European Union is unlikely to make new concessions to London and in general will hold new negotiations. There is almost a stalemate. In the coming days, Theresa May and her government will need to submit a so-called plan "B" for consideration, but does she have it? In the current conditions, the more likely outcomes of events are options with the country's abandonment of Brexit or withdrawal from the EU without any agreements. The first option, at least, strange after a two-year epic, the second, completely unfavorable for London. In general, it seems that the epic with the exit from the European Union continues.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2817

S2 - 1.2695

S3 - 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues a very weak upward movement. Thus, now remain relevant long positions with a target of 1.2939. Instrument volatility has greatly decreased, but this is unlikely to be for a long time, bursts of activity are possible.

Short positions will become relevant no earlier than reversing the price below the moving average line. The goal, in this case, will be the level of 1.2695, which has already been tested. From a fundamental point of view, the fall of the pound now looks more preferable.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 17. The tading system. "Regression Channels". Euro currency again under the pressure of the market

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -106.0778

The currency pair EUR / USD on Thursday, January 17, continues its weaker downward movement, as indicated by the blue bars of the Heikin Ashi indicator. Yesterday was a fateful event for the UK, but events in this country could also affect the Euro currency rate. Much to her surprise, Theresa May managed to keep herself in the chair of the Prime Minister. On voting in the British Parliament with a minimum margin of 19 votes, she won and will not be dismissed. By the way, such voting results had no effect on the euro rate. To date, the Eurozone is scheduled to publish the consumer price index for December. Experts predict that we should expect values of 1.6% y / y. This is already a low inflation value, if the real value is even lower, then traders can start selling off the block's currency with new forces. No important information is expected from the States today. The euro, meanwhile, is again approaching its annual lows. Actually, up to the level of 1.1215, there are only about 160 points. Given the fact that no positive information is still coming from the EU, and Mario Draghi recently made it clear to the markets that there can be no tightening of monetary policy in the coming months, the prospects for the euro at the beginning of the new year look very foggy. To the aid of the euro can come only States.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move down. Therefore, now sell orders with the first target of 1.1353 are still recommended. Heikin Ashi's upside reversal will serve as a signal to manually reduce the short positions.

Long positions are recommended to open with the target of 1.1475, if the pair consolidates above the moving average line. In the coming days, the pair will find it difficult to fulfill this condition, since no positive news from the EU is expected.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on January 17. Weak data prevent euro buyers from starting a correction

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The euro fell yesterday amid weak eurozone data. Today, you can take a closer look at purchases when forming a false breakdown at the level of 1.1375. However, it should be borne in mind that this will be the third test of this range, which may lead to its breakdown. In this scenario, it is best to open long positions to rebound from support of 1.1343. The main task of buyers is to return to the resistance level of 1.1411, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the maximum of 1.1451 and 1.1490, where I recommend fixing the profits. Today's data on inflation in the euro zone may put pressure on the euro in the morning.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers will manifest themselves after the formation of a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1411, which will increase the pressure on the euro, but the main task will be a breakthrough of support for 1.1375, which will lead to a larger sale of EUR / USD with access to the minimums of 1.1343 and 1.1312, where I recommend fixing the profit. If after a test of a minimum of 1.1375 rapid downward movement is not formed, I recommend closing short positions, since a large upward correction in euro can be formed from this level. Weak data on inflation in the eurozone may help the bears to break below the support of 1.1375.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading remains below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volling Bollinger Bands is very low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

In the foreign exchange market unstable equilibrium

Eurozone

The euro partially lose ground before the publication of the report on inflation in December, while the forecasts are still neutral, but a number of factors, such as a decline in manufacturing activity in Germany, a general fall in PMI in the eurozone and Brexit uncertainty, put pressure on the euro.

Support for EUR/ USD 1.1330 / 35, growth is limited by the level of 1.1420, slightly more likely to move up during the day.

Great Britain

Against the backdrop of increasing political crisis, the pound received unexpected support. Despite the fact that inflation slowed to a two-year low in December, it was still slightly higher than expected, and the base index without taking into account volatile energy and food prices even rose from 1.8% to 1.9%, which gives hope that the slowdown in price growth will end as soon as oil prices stabilize.

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As expected, some conservatives who voted against the Brexit agreement with the EU did not dare to repeat their trick on the question of confidence in the cabinet of ministers, as a result of which Theresa May managed to keep her post. This victory, however, may turn out to be Pyrrhic. The conservatives just don't want to allow extraordinary elections, as they may lose some of the seats, but a positive outcome does not add any chance that by January 21, a Brexit solution will be found that suits everyone.

The head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, commenting on the voting results, noted that the market's expectations are most clearly reflected in the foreign exchange market. The pound remained close to local maximum, which, in his opinion, indicates a good prospect of reaching an agreement with the EU. At the same time, the EU coordinator at the Brexit talks, Michel Barnier, believes that the likelihood of a tough Brexit has risen to an "unprecedented level" without any agreement.

No macroeconomic publications on the pound are expected until the end of the week, so all attention will be focused on possible insights regarding preparations for the January 21 parliamentary session, the last opportunity to reach an agreement. GBP / USD with a high probability will not go beyond the range of 1.2805 / 1.2930 until any significant news appears.

Oil

Oil prices adjusted downward after the publication of the weekly report by the US Department of Energy, which showed a record increase to 11.9 million barrels per day. We also need to note higher than expected reserves of gasoline and crude oil. US production is growing, largely offsetting a decline in OPEC +, which prevents market balancing.

At the same time, surprisingly, production growth in the USA occurs without the growth of three main indicators, the number of drilling rigs, investment in the mining sector and employment, which are at levels lower than during the time of the second oil bubble of 2011/14.

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Such unexpected statistics can indicate either an unprecedented increase in the efficiency of production, that is, the triumph of modern technologies, or the fact that something is not in order with the methods of calculating own production. In any case, the factor of record production in the United States will prevent oil prices from continuing to grow, therefore stabilization in the range of 58.90 / 62.60 formed last week is more likely.

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Overview of the foreign exchange market on 01/17/2019

The indecencies that happen in Foggy Albion can confuse anyone. Either by an overwhelming majority, respected people in parliament reject the option of a divorce agreement with a European dormitory, the next day they express support for the lady who brought this agreement to them the next day. Before the vote, Theresa May herself assured all those present that if the government was dissolved and the matter reached early elections, the new cabinet would simply not have time to hold talks with the European Union. For many parliamentarians who demand just the earliest possible elaboration of the economic component of this unfortunate agreement, this was enough. And although the devil's leg will break, it was this decision of Her Majesty's chosen ones who supported the pound, which was able to withstand the sad news about the decline in inflation from 2.3% to 2.1%.

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The single European currency continued its sluggish decline, which is most likely due to the expectations of today's publication of the final inflation data, which should confirm its decline from 1.9% to 1.6%. After all, such a significant slowdown in inflation calls into question the possibility of considering raising the refinancing rate until the end of autumn. Rather, this issue will be postponed until the end of the summer. However, the data itself is unlikely to have any impact on the market, either because of the fact that market participants have already prepared for the sad news, and because of the projected increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Their total number should increase by 17 thousand. At the same time, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits should increase by 4 thousand, while repeated ones will immediately increase by 13 thousand. So the single European currency will remain around 1.1375 - 1.1400.

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The situation is similar to the pound, and although the American data are strictly negative, the events around Brexit only generate uncertainty, which does not inspire much confidence. So the pound will be relatively stable, and the auction will take place in the region of 1.2875.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for January 17. The fall of the pound sterling is now most likely

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On January 16, the GBP / USD pair gained about 20 bp. The amplitude of the instrument has decreased to a minimum, which is rather strange, given the scale of recent events in the UK. Yesterday, the parliament did not approve Theresa May's resignation, but so far no reaction has been received to this event. More so, the wave pattern of the trend section, taking its beginning on January 2, looks quite ambiguous. Most likely, the pair continues to build three-wave structures, and if this is true, then it's possible from current positions.

Shopping goals:

1.2997 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2716 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2609 - 23.6% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD pair made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 61.8%, which suggests that the instrument is ready to build a downward wave or a set of waves. The wave pattern is now confused, and, given the importance of current events in the UK, there is reason to expect new instrument jerks in different directions, which are difficult to predict now. Thus, I recommend monitoring the situation in the coming days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 17. Will the euro have enough strength for a new leap up?

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Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, January 16, trading ended for EUR / USD by a decrease of 20 basis points. Thus, the uptrend of the trend, taking its beginning on November 12, takes an ambiguous and complex look. The wave takes the form of a diagonal triangle, but a further reduction of the instrument will lead to the complication of the entire wave pattern on the instrument. Therefore, while I expect the pair to rise within wave 5, c, one of the possible signals to start building this wave would be an unsuccessful attempt to break through one of the nearest fibo levels (50.0% or 38.2%).

Sales targets:

1.1345 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1315 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1599 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1677 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build wave 4, c, which turns out pretty deep. . Since the wave with does not look complete, I expect the resumption of raising the instrument and recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1599 and 1.1677. I recommend placing protective orders below the Fibonacci level of 23.6%, which is the minimum of the expected wave 2, in s.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for January 17. The bullish divergence can stop the fall of the euro

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD continues the process of falling in the direction of the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.1358. Rebounding the quotations of the pair on January 17 from the Fibo level of 23.6% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the euro currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446. The bullish divergence of the MACD indicator is still maturing, which increases the chances of a turn in the near future in favor of the EU currency. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of continuing to fall towards the next level of 1.1269.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, after quitting the quotes from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553, it continues to fall in the direction of 127.2% - 1.1285. None of the indicators have maturing divergence on the current chart. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 127.2% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the euro and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0%. Fixing below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1446 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 23.6% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1358 or a bullish divergence is formed.

New sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1269 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 23.6% if the pair consolidates below the level of 1.1358.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for January 17th. Pound sterling stalled

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart completed a return to the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2869. Resetting the pair from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a new drop in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.2765. Overcoming divergences are not visible today. Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.2970.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair continues to trade between the correction levels of 100.0% - 1.2815 and 127.2% - 1.2916. Absolutely lateral movement. The end of the first or second border of this kind of side corridor will allow you to expect a movement to the opposite border. The planned divergence is not observed. Closing above the correction level of 127.2% will allow traders to expect the pair to continue to grow in the direction of the level of 161.8% - 1.3048.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.3048 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 127.2% if the pair closes above the level of 1.2916 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2815 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 127.2% if the pair bounces off of the level of 1.2916 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on January 17, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the work down with the first lower target 1.2823 is a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the work down with the first lower target 1.2823 is a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What did the Fed say? (Report "Beige Book" from 01/16)

The general state of the economy: Growth "moderate" and "very moderate" in 9 Federal Districts out of 13.

Total sales are growing but auto sales have not increased. Most counties report slower growth, especially in the automotive and energy sectors.

Labor market: Most districts mark a strong demand for labor and difficulty finding workers of all qualifications. Salaries are growing for all categories of workers. Some firms are forced to limit their activities due to a shortage of workers (construction sector).

Prices: Dynamics mixed. Costs of companies are growing, but they cannot raise retail prices due to high competition. General prices are rising slightly, but energy prices have decreased, prices for agricultural goods are not growing.

Rising property prices in the private sector.

Note: The beige book Fed report on the state of the US economy is standardly published exactly 14 days before the Fed's decision on rates.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of AUD / USD for January 17

Large-scale graphics:

For the past year, the price of the pair has moved down, forming a downward wave. Its structure is not complete. In recent weeks, the oncoming wave is formed.

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Medium scale graphics:

Beginning January 2, the ascending part of the chart has a reversal potential. Over time, the scale of the movement will move to a higher level.

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Small-scale graphics:

Since January 11, the price is adjusted, forming the middle part (B) in a larger wave.

Forecast and recommendations:

On the chart of the pair, a classical impulse construction is developing, preceding the change in the short-term trend. In the coming days, conditions will be created for entering long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7320 / 0.7370

Support areas:

- 0.7120 / 0.7070

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com