EUR/USD facing bearish pressure from resistance, potential for drop!

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EURUSD is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance where we could be seeing a further drop below this level.

Entry: 1.09727

Why it's good : breakout level, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 1.10559

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 1.08649

Why it's good: Horizontal overlap support, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 3, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

On Monday, the pair continued to move down. Moving down, the pair could not break through the strong historical level - 1.1987 (blue dotted line). Today, strong calendar news is expected at 8.30 Universal time (pound) and 14.00 Universal time (dollar). The downward movement may continue.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price can continue to move down to the support line - 1.1938 (red bold line) and from there, a pullback upward movement with the target 1.1987 - resistance line (red bold line) may start.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price can continue to move down to the support line - 1.1938 (red bold line) and from there, a pullback upward movement with the target 1.1987 - resistance line (red bold line) may start.

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AUD/USD preparing for a big drop, are you ready?

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We are bearish fundamentally and technically with 0.6709 the key level to break to trigger the drop all the way down.

Entry: 0.6709

Why it's good : 61.8% extension, horizontal swing low support, bearish momentum, bearish fundamentals.

Stop Loss : 0.6728Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 23.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6692

Why it's good: major swing low support

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USD/JPY approaching intermediate resistance, potential drop!

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USDJPY is approaching intermediate resistance at 106.41, potential drop could occur.

Entry :106.41

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension

100% Fibonacci extension

Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 105.91

Why it's good :horizontal swing low support

100% Fibonacci extension

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 3, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the continuation of the downward movement with the target of 1.0920 is possible – the target level is 161.8% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the downward movement with the target of 1.0920 is possible – the target level of 161.8% (blue dashed line). From this level, you can work upwards.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 3, 2019

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Our preferred count shows that wave 2 completed with the test of 126.54 - just above the ideal target at 126.31. We have see a minor rally to a high of 130.70. That said, we must also stress, that the rally from 126.54 is less than impressive.

If we are correct that a long-term low is in place at 126.54, then a new minor low should be seen near the current level at 127.85 for a new impulsive rally above 130.70 towards at least 135.94.

If a break below 126.54 is seen, we know that wave 2 can not be complete and should expect more downside pressure towards 125.06.

R3: 130.70

R2: 129.30

R1: 128.30

Pivot: 127.85

S1: 127.37

S2: 126.54

S3: 126.00

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity upon a break above 130.70.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 3, 2019

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EUR/JPY has continued lower and is now testing the equality target, where wave Y is equal in length to wave W. This target is seen at 116.37. We could see EUR/JPY try to spike lower, but ideally EUR/JPY will close above this target on a daily basis and start moving higher and a break above 117.93 will be a strong indication that a long-term bottom finally is in place and a new impulsive rally can begin,

However, for now the main trend remains down and we need to see signs of a possible bottom developing.

R3: 117.93

R2: 117.15

R1: 116.81

Pivot: 116.37

S1: 116.00

S2: 115.74

S3: 115.33

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buy opportunity, but will only buy a break above 117.93.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 3. An important day for the British pound and the UK economy. Buyers

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, Parliament leaves summer vacations, and the opposition will try to secure the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and will try to pass a bill blocking Brexit without a deal. If this cannot be done before Monday, then the probability of Britain leaving the EU without an agreement will increase significantly. Pound buyers are activated at annual lows. To do this, there is support in the area of 1.2019 and the formation of a false breakdown on it will be the first signal to open long positions. Bigger players will defend support at 1.1985, from where you can watch long positions immediately on the rebound. Any success of the opposition can lead to a sharp increase in the pound. The bulls task for today will also be a return to the resistance of 1.2060, which may strengthen the bullish correction and allow to reach a high of 1.2107, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The main objective of the pound sellers is to break through the support of 1.2019, around which the main trade is currently underway. Only such a scenario will allow counting on updating the lows of the year in areas of 1.1985 and 1.1949, where I recommend taking profits. Any negative Brexit scenario, and especially today's parliamentary vote, will further pull down the pound. If the opposition manages to achieve at least something during today's vote, a sharp rise in the pound to the resistance area of 1.2107 and 1.2143 is not ruled out, from where I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound. In the scenario of small growth and the formation of a false breakdown at a resistance of 1.2060, you can also open short positions with a small stop above.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pound could continue to fall.

Bollinger bands

If the pound rises, the upside potential will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.2100. A breakthrough of the lower border in the region of 1.2020 will increase the pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Control zones USDCAD 09/03/19

The formation of the medium-term accumulation zone continues for the fifth week. This makes it possible to open deals at the boundaries of the flat. Yesterday, the upper limit was tested, which coincides with the weekly control zone 1.3378-1.3360. This made it possible to consolidate purchases. Today's plan is to find favorable prices for selling the instrument.

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Sales from the upper boundary of the flat have a favorable risk to profit ratio, since the width of the range is approximately 150 points.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's US session occurs above the weekly CZ. This will open the way for continued growth and will make it possible to complete the flat medium-term phase. The probability of exit from the flat is 30%, so the model is auxiliary. Buying at the upper boundary of the flat is not recommended.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for September 3. In anticipation of the US business activity index.

EUR / USD

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Monday, September 2, ended for the EUR / USD pair with a decline of another 20 basis points. Thus, the expected wave 3, in 3 as part of the bearish trend section continues its construction with targets located near the 161.8% Fibonacci level. Yesterday, the index of business activity in the industrial sector in Germany declined from 43.6 to 43.5 points, while the pan-European index did not change compared to July and amounted to 47.0 points. Both indicators are very disappointing, as they indicate a decline in industry and Germany and the EU as a whole. Therefore, the new sales of the euro-dollar pair are not surprising. Today, I look forward to the continuation of the decline of the instrument, at least until the US trading session, during which the index of business activity in industry in America will be released. Forecasts indicate a fall in business activity in the United States, however, the question is how much the ISM and Markit indices will drop. If you look at the values of the indices for the last year, there is no doubt what to expect from these indicators today.

Markit Business Activity Index

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ISM Business Activity Index

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Any decrease in these indices can lead to the fact that the bears will moderate their fervor a little, and the pair will move on to the construction of an internal correctional wave in the composition of 3, 3.

Purchase goals:

1.1248 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0893 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.0807 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build a bearish wave, which is now interpreted as 3, in 3. I recommend selling the pair with targets near the calculated levels of 1.0893 and 1.0807, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci . An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 161.8% may lead to quotes moving away from the minimums reached.

GBP / USD

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On September 2, the pair GBP / USD lost almost 100 base points and continues to decline within the framework of the expected wave b as part of the construction of the correctional upward trend section. However, with each hour, the probability that wave b does not transform into a new pulsed bearish wave, and that the entire wave marking does not require additions and corrections, is increasingly approaching 0. Already in the next hour or two, the instrument can make a successful attempt to break through the minimum of the expected wave 5, in e. Of course, wave b can go a little beyond the minimum of wave e, after which the construction of ascending c can begin, However, such a wave picture will no longer be "like in a textbook". The news background does predict a new long-term decline in the pound. Today is the first working day of the Parliament after the summer holidays and several crucial issues will be immediately resolved: a vote of confidence in Boris Johnson, and a bill banning Brexit without agreement with Brussels. Markets have little faith that a tough Brexit situation can be fixed, but anything is possible. Also today, the pound sterling has a theoretical chance of increasing. I also draw attention to the index of business activity in the UK construction sector, which is also almost guaranteed to be below 50.0.

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Sales goals:

1.2016 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2306 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2401 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The downward section of the trend is previously considered completed. Thus, it is now expected to build an ascending wave with the first targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2306 and 1.2401, which corresponds to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci. You can buy a pound, but I do not recommend doing it in large volumes. You can also open purchases by the "up" MACD signal, which is still not there. A successful attempt to break the minimum of August 12 will indicate that the markets are ready for a new fall and will require changes to the current wave pattern.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 03/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The German Federal Government and the German Central Bank Deutsche Bundesbank work closely together on issues related to the central bank's digital currency (CBDC).

On August 29, the German Federal Parliament (Bundestag) published official feedback at the request of the Free Democratic Party parliamentary group, which asked the authority to answer six CBDC related questions in July 2019.

In a document of August 16, the federal government answered all of the group's questions, citing the most important reports and surveys in space, including the January report of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). When asked about their knowledge or insights about CBDC, the authority quoted BIS, claiming that 70% of global central banks are involved in CBDC work, but only two percent have specific plans to issue money from a digital central bank.

The federal government has emphasized that Sweden is the only country in the European Union that is currently considering the release of CBDC. However, the authority did not make the final decision on the issue.

The authorities outlined the situation of the Chinese central bank, which launched a research program on a possible CBDC issue in 2014, but it still lacks clarity on this issue. The authority also cited the Petro project in Venezuela, citing the Reuters report of 2018, which claimed that there were still no transactions in the domestic oil-backed cryptocurrency.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair is still trading inside of the short-term descending channel, so only an impulsive move out of the channel can give a signal for the market participants to resume the uptrend on this pair. The breakout level would be around the level of $181.92. Despite the fact, that the wave Z of the overall corrective cycle might have been completed already, the bulls are not showing any strength on the market yet, which is why the price is trading below the trendline. If, however, the leve of $181.02 is clearly violated, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $187.04.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $214.26

WR2 - $203.46

WR1 - $183.94

Weekly Pivot Point - $173.24

WS1 - $152.37

WS2 - $142.84

WS3 - $121.31

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 03/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

According to a new media survey by FinancialExpress, high-income people in India are more likely to invest in Bitcoins than other cryptocurrencies. Digital currencies were the fourth most preferred total asset, although almost half of the respondents did not know what cryptocurrencies were.

Of those surveyed, about 10% said they intend to invest in cryptocurrency over the next three years. As a result, the digital currency has become the fourth most favorite asset class. Real estate is most often chosen, followed by shares and fixed income assets.

Of the respondents who knew cryptocurrencies, almost 30% said they prefer investing in Bitcoin. Another 9% prefer Ethereum as an investment, with 7% indicating a preference for XRP.

Indian authorities have turbulent ongoing relationships with cryptocurrency. The Indian Supreme Court no longer has patience with the Central Bank - it gave him only two weeks to justify the ban on cryptographic services that he introduced in July 2018.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance at the level of $10,222 and made a local high at the level of $10,445. The next target is seen at the level of $10,600 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $10,222 (old technical resistance). Please notice, that from the Elliott Wave theory point of view, the market is very close to terminate the wave Y of the corrective cycle in the wave 2, or this cycle had been completed already and the market is ready to resume the uptrend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,528

WR2 - $11,079

WR1 - $10,223

Weekly Pivot Point - $9,753

WS1 - $8,875

WS2 - $8,358

WS3 - $7,589

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 3. Bears are preparing a breakdown of a new low at 1.0927

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's weak reports on manufacturing activity in the eurozone once again proved the fact that the European economy is seriously suffering from trade conflicts and continues to slow down. Currently, euro buyers are required to maintain the support level of 1.0927, and only the formation of a false breakdown there will be the first signal to open long positions. However, such a scenario is permissible only when good data on the eurozone producer price index are released. If the pressure on EUR/USD persists further, it is best to count on new long positions after updating lows near 1.0900 and 1.0873. The main task of the bulls will be to return to the resistance of 1.0955, from where a larger upward correction will lead to a high of 1.0982, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears will continue to rely on weak reports on the eurozone, and a repeated support test of 1.0927 will lead to a new wave of sales of the euro with updating lows in the areas of 1.0900 and 1.0873, where I recommend taking profits. However, the focus will be shifted in the afternoon, when reports on manufacturing activity in the US come out. Only with good performance can we expect further movement of the euro down. In the upward correction scenario, I recommend counting on short positions in EUR/USD only after a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0955, however, the best option for sales is to update the high of 1.10982.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a continued decline in the euro.

Bollinger bands

If the euro rises in the morning, short positions can be opened by a rebound from the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.0982. A break of the lower border in the support area of 1.0927 will lead to an increase in the bearish trend.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 03/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has finally resolved the Broadening Wedge pattern and made a clear and visible breakout below the lower line of the pattern. The most recent local low was made at the level of 1.2024, which is only 12 pips away from the key short-term technical support. Weak and negative momentum supports the short-term negative outlook for this pair and the support at 1.2012 will be tested soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2411

WR2 - 1.2356

WR1 - 1.2237

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.2187

WS1 - 1.2067

WS2 - 1.2021

WS3 - 1.1902

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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GBP/USD: Pound waiting grand events

The British currency paired with the dollar, continues to update local lows, approaching the base of the 20th figure. The extremely weak PMI report in the UK manufacturing sector has only reinforced the negative fundamental picture, but Brexit remains the main driver of the downward movement or rather the prospects for the implementation of the "hard" scenario. Boris Johnson's team leads an inventive lead game, forcing opponents to make hasty decisions.

Although the main political battles in the House of Commons are still ahead, investors have little faith in the positive outcome of the battle, which the downward dynamics of the British currency eloquently testifies to this. Nevertheless, despite the pronounced bearish trend, it is worthwhile to wait for a bit in short positions of the GBP/USD pair today. Indeed, the first session of the House of Commons of the season will be held today in Britain. The rhetoric and possible actions of deputies can provide short-term support to the pound. This fact should be taken into account -at least when opening orders on GBP/USD pair. Whether parliamentarians will eventually be able to "defeat" the odious prime minister is an open question but the very fact of opposition will certainly support the British, at least in the short term.

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Judging by the chaotic news background, the events will unfold quite rapidly. Firstly, the deputies of the House of Commons have very little time to make key decisions. As you know, the queen supported Johnson's initiative to suspend parliament. Therefore, on September 9, members of the House of Commons will be forced to leave again on vacation until mid-October (while Brexit is scheduled for October 31). Only a few days remain, during which the majority of deputies should take a consolidated position in order to block the prime minister's intentions to withdraw the country from the EU without a deal.

But this is the main problem of the opponents of the "hard" Brexit. On the one hand, Johnson does not have his own parliamentary majority loyal to the current government. He can count on 100-150 conservative deputies from among successive "hawks." On the other hand, it is far from the fact that the Tories will support the legislative initiatives of the Laborites, in particular, on the creation of an interim government of "national unity." In turn, the opposition is also not able to make independent decisions due to the absence of a majority in the House of Commons. They need the support of conservatives from among the centrists, who are also many, judging by the results of previous votes regarding the prospects of Brexit. The Conservative Party has already warned their party members in parliament: "who will support this initiative, will be expelled from the party and accordingly will not be re-elected. " Nobody knows which way the scales are leaning. Thus, the intrigue in this matter remains, which will be resolved in the coming days (and possibly today).

Boris Johnson, speaking late yesterday after an emergency meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, said that under no circumstances would he ask Brussels for another postponement. At the same time, he did not announce early parliamentary elections, contrary to the numerous rumors that were discussed yesterday in the British press. However, judging by his rhetoric, the parliament is on the verge of re-elections and the last straw on this issue could be a law obliging the government to prolong the negotiation process. According to the prime minister, this step of the parliament "will undermine London's position in negotiations with Brussels" as Europeans will not take British intentions seriously. Obviously, if the deputies still take this step, Johnson will dissolve the parliament and call for re-election.

But it is worth noting here that such a scenario is unlikely to support the British currency - even if the elections are scheduled before October 31. Judging by the latest ratings, the Conservative Party can only strengthen its position by gaining an independent majority in the House of Commons (now they are burdened with a coalition alliance with unionists). So, according to the latest YouGov polls, conservatives still have a confident chance of winning. After joining Johnson and his confident, consistent and correct (from the Tory point of view) actions in relation to Brussels and Brexit, the party's rating increased significantly. According to sociologists, 33% of Britons are ready to cast their votes for the Conservative Party, whose leader is Johnson (under such a condition). Another 22% of respondents would support labour, 21% - the party of liberal Democrats. Thus, re-elections can only increase the likelihood of Brexit's tough, because if the next parliament will take a majority loyal to Johnson conservatives, then no one will stop him.

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In other words, the current composition of the House of Commons may block the country's exit from the EU on October 31 but will not be able to resolve the situation as a whole. Therefore, in the long run, the pound will still remain under significant pressure. Judging by the British press, the idea of creating a government of national unity does not find wide support among parliamentarians, especially when it comes to the fact that the interim cabinet will be led by Corbin. Therefore,within a few days until September 9, parliamentarians can implement a "minimum program" to block the hard-line Brexit on October 31 and declare a vote of no confidence in the government, after which, they will "submit" to the re-election.

Given the above ratings of conservatives, this scenario will put additional pressure on the pound. Although in the short term, the British can get support due to the possible extension of the negotiation process. To summarize, it is worth noting that short positions on the GBP/USD pair look risky, although technical signals suggest otherwise. But the first day of parliament's work can mix all the cards, provoking a massive price adjustment.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 3, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro did not consolidate at the achieved goal of the Fibonacci level of 138.2%, but consolidated below the level and today in the Asian session continued to decline decisively. The immediate goal is formed by the area of convergence of the Fibonacci level of 161.8% and the line of the falling price channel, this is the area of 1.0840.

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator, which showed the prospect of correction or consolidation yesterday, has moved down. The technical situation is completely declining. A correction is now possible from the target level of 1.0840.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 03/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a fresh new low at the level of 1.0930. The momentum is now negative and weak and the market conditions are now extremely oversold at the H4 timeframe, so there is always a chance for a bounce towards the level of 1.1027 to test it from below. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1285

WR2 - 1.1224

WR1 - 1.1084

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025

WS1 - 1.0886

WS2 - 1.0818

WS3 - 1.0681

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 03, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as PPI m/m and Spanish Unemployment Change. The US will also publish the economic data such as ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1018. Strong Resistance: 1.1012. Original Resistance: 1.1001. Inner Sell Area: 1.0990. Target Inner Area: 1.0965. Inner Buy Area: 1.0940. Original Support: 1.0929. Strong Support: 1.0918. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0912. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 03, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction and Monetary Base y/y, while the US will publish some economic data such as ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Final Manufacturing PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 106.86. Resistance. 2: 106.64. Resistance. 1: 106.44. Support. 1: 106.19. Support. 2: 105.98. Support. 3: 105.77. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 3, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar gained strength for two days before the breakthrough of support for the red price channel at 0.6710, which took place this morning. This is against a good indicator of Australia's balance of payments for the 2nd quarter amounting to 5.9 billion against the forecast of 1.5 billion. True, retail sales in July showed a decrease of 0.1% against the forecast of growth of 0.2%, but investors are waiting for the main event of the day -the RBA decision on the interest rate. The RBA is expected to lower the rate in October with a probability of 70%, and the tone of the accompanying statement is interesting.

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The purpose of the decline is to support the nested blue price channel line in the region of 0.6647, overcoming the line opens the prospect of reducing another order of 150 points to support the underlying line of the already red price channel at 0.6460-0.6500.

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On the H4 chart, the price is falling vertically down and there are no signs of a stop.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 3, 2019

GBP/USD

In England, the government's opposition to Parliament has intensified, which is in a hurry trying to ban Brexit without a deal in response to a possible announcement of early elections. Also on Monday, Manufacturing PMI in August fell from 48.0 to 47.4, which ultimately pulled down the pound by more than 100 points. The price reached the first Fibonacci retracement target of 261.8% of the baseline on March 13-April 25.

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On the daily chart, the Marlin Oscillator has entered a declining trend zone. Overcoming yesterday's low will allow the pound to decline to a strong support of 1.1986 - the point of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 271.0% with the descending line of the price channel. Consolidation below the level opens the way to fall to the next target - the Fibonacci level of 314.0% at the price of 1.1763.

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On the four-hour chart, the situation is downward - the price is below the lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator shows no signs of growth.

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Weekly market review

Greetings, dear traders! Congratulations to everyone on the beginning of autumn and, hopefully, on the increase in volatility associated with the end of the holiday period, including the bank traders, and the Forex market, as you know, is the interbank market, and the private traders who are here – random people.

The first week of autumn is an important trading period associated with a change in order placements in anticipation of non-farm payrolls, and after them. Often, it is the "nanoc" that one ends and other tendencies of instruments related to the American dollar begin. Today, Monday, according to most professional traders, is the worst time to open new trading positions and decide on a change in trading trends. Moreover, it is also today, September 2, 2019 - is a holiday in the USA and Canada - Labor Day. Therefore, let us congratulate the United States labor teams on this holiday!

For us, this means that trading during this evening will take place in narrow ranges and it is not worth waiting for super-movements from the markets today. Only "Donald Trump" can break the "trade silence" with his Twitter. Sometimes, it seems to me that Donald is an avid trader who "rules" his unprofitable positions with his own, often diametrically opposite, statements on the network.

Today, the main trading idea related to the American dollar for me is to strengthen the dollar in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, which gave last week. I also have very interesting ideas on certain crosses, which will be published soon.

What to do for traders in a period of low volatility? Of course, developing trading skills in the "strategy tester", as well as working on the analysis of profitable / unprofitable positions of the last week, in order to understand - how you earn and how much you lose and at what volumes and at what time you have it is obtained most efficiently. Good luck in trading! And see you at the evening reviews of cross-courses!

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Trading strategy for EUR / USD and GBP / USD on September 2

EUR / USD - 4H.

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart continues the fall process, in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.0919. A signal for a new fall of the euro-dollar pair was received on Friday, August 30, by closing quotes below the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1024. This signal is already in operation. An equidistant channel unambiguously indicates which direction the current trend has. From the latest news, I note the speech of Christine Lagarde, the future chairman of the ECB, who will succeed Mario Draghi at the end of October 2019. Ms. Lagarde noted that the European Central Bank should be ready for action against the backdrop of a difficult economic situation. Also, according to Ms. Lagarde, "the ECB has the opportunity to cut rates, even if it negatively affects financial stability and the banking sector."

What to expect from a currency pair on Monday?

On September 2, I expect a further decline in the euro-dollar pair in the direction of the level of 1.0919, since I do not see any obstacles and barriers to the implementation of this scenario. Typically, traders take profits at the end of the week or month. This did not happen on Friday. Accordingly, traders are ready to maintain sales. Accordingly, today I look forward to continued decline. The information background is also unlikely to be on the side of the euro, as business activity in Germany and the European Union is likely to remain at low levels, indicating a decline in industry. Below the level of 1.1024, I only consider sales. One can think about the growth of the European currency after the pair consolidates above the Fibo level of 127.2%. Upcoming divergence is not observed today in any indicator.

The Fibo grid was built at the extremes of May 23, 2019 and June 25, 2019.

Forecast on EUR / USD and recommendations to traders:

I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.0919, as the pair completed consolidation under the correction level of 127.2%. Stop Loss - Over 1.1029.

You can buy a pair after closing above the level of 1.1029 with the target of 1.1108. In this case, the pair will still remain inside the downward trend.

GBP / USD - 4H.

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So far, the correction equidistant channel indicates the preservation of the rising mood for the pair GBP / USD. Quotations rebound from the bottom line of this channel allows traders to expect some growth in the direction of the level of 1.2308 (peak of August 27). At the same time, the upper line of the trend equidistant channel, which continues to support the long-term downward trend, may become an insurmountable obstacle to this level. Based on this, I believe that the pair has a better chance of closing under the correction channel. In this case, the path to the levels of 1.2014 (low of August 12) and 1.1854 (Fibo level of 161.8%) will be open and accessible without barriers. Given the background and the events that will take place in the UK tomorrow, I believe that this scenario is highly likely. Today, traders can only pay attention to UK business activity in the industrial sector, which is likely to remain around 48.0. That is, it is unlikely to force traders to buy pound sterling. But tomorrow, British parliamentarians will leave the vacation, and war will begin in parliament. The war between Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who at the weekend had already announced that he would expel from the party all who would impede Brexit's "No Deal" and Brexit's opposing deputies on October 31. Accordingly, it is tomorrow that we will learn how the story will develop with the suspension of parliament by Boris Johnson. and war will begin in parliament. The war between Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who at the weekend had already announced that he would expel from the party all who would impede Brexit's "No Deal" and Brexit's opposing deputies on October 31. Accordingly, it is tomorrow that we will learn how the story will develop with the suspension of parliament by Boris Johnson. and war will begin in parliament. The war between Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who at the weekend had already announced that he would expel from the party all who would impede Brexit's "No Deal" and Brexit's opposing deputies on October 31. Accordingly, it is tomorrow that we will learn how the story will develop with the suspension of parliament by Boris Johnson.

What to expect from a currency pair on Monday?

The main obstacle for a new fall of the pound is now the bottom line of the correction channel. Accordingly, I look forward to overcoming this line, which will allow traders to expect the pair to fall in the direction of levels 1,2014 and 1,1854. I do not expect news today from the UK, but in America today is Labor Day - a national holiday. I do not expect the growth of the British currency, since there is practically no reason for this. Moreover, I think that on August 27 the trend segment ended when the pound grew. Now you just have to wait for confirmation of this assumption.

The Fibo grid was built at the extremes of January 3, 2019 and March 13, 2019.

GBP / USD Forecast and recommendations for traders:

I recommend buying the pair very carefully (or not buying at all) with the target of 1.2437, if closing is performed above the upper line of the trend channel (downward). Shopping near the top line inside the channel is dangerous.

I recommend selling a pair with targets 1.2014 and 1.1854 and with a Stop Loss level above 127.2% - 1.2180 if closing is performed under the lower line of the correction channel.

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